The Role of Science in a National Policy for the Oceans,

Coasts and the Great Lakes

Robert B. GagosianJuly 16, 2009

Full Members (46/12) Associates (31) Affiliate (6)

Ocean Leadership Members

National Ocean Policy

• Oceans are facing a myriad of perturbations not seen for millions of years, perhaps ever. The impacts on ecosystems and human society are enormous. Science must play a critical role informing wise policy and management decisions.

• “We will restore science to its rightful place” – President Barack Obama, January 20, 2009

• A national policy “established, guided and continuously validated by science” that ensures protection, maintenance, and restoration of oceans, our coasts and the Great Lakes.

Role of Science in a National Ocean Policy

Wise Decisions Require The Best Science Available

In order to sustainably manage our ocean ecosystems, mitigate impacts from climate change and adapt to a rapidly changing environment, we need the capacity to predict and reduce the risks and vulnerabilities of future ocean scenarios:And that requires models based on sound science

which requires physical, biological & chemical datawhich are obtained from observations

• Remote (satellites, radar)• In Situ (buoys, autonomous vehicles,

vessels, stream & tide gauges)

Key Climate Change Impacts

Three fundamental areas where scientific information is insufficient to accurately forecast the size, scope and time scales of changes occurring in the ocean include:

1. Changes in Ocean Productivity

2. Opening of the Arctic System

3. Forecasting Sea-Level Rise

Changes in Ocean ProductivityOcean productivity is

being affected by changes to the physics, biology and chemistry of the ocean, with implications for CO2 uptake.

Changes driven by:• Acidification• Warming waters• Altered currents/upwelling• Influx of fresh water• Over-fishing• Aquaculture• Agricultural & urban runoff

Opening of the Arctic

• Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change.Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change.

• Loss of sea ice will have a huge impact on Loss of sea ice will have a huge impact on Earth’s energy budget and has tremendous Earth’s energy budget and has tremendous international implications.international implications.

• Poor understanding of ocean-ice interactions & Poor understanding of ocean-ice interactions & ability to accurately predict rate of glacial, ability to accurately predict rate of glacial, permafrost or sea-ice loss.permafrost or sea-ice loss.

• Lack of sufficient instrumentation for real-time Lack of sufficient instrumentation for real-time observations.observations.

Sea-Level Rise• Could be 1 m or

more depending on ice sheet melt

• 0.5 meter rise translates into a 100 year flood occurring annually

• There will be further loss of protective wetlands & penetration of salinity into estuaries and coastal aquifers

• Economic and social disruptive impacts are tremendous

Offshore Renewable Energy Development1. Wave2. Currents3. Tidal4. Thermal Conversion5. Wind

• All promising technologies – mostly in their infancy• Need for ecosystem assessments for facility siting• Overlapping and competing federal and state regulations

Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning

Science can assist in development of sustainable management regimes for the future use of ocean and coastal resources.

• Identify existing uses, risk areas, and military exclusions

• Define current physical, chemical and biological parameters

• AND forecast future ocean conditions with new uses.

Existing Framework for Ocean Policy

Framework for Ocean Coordination Recommendations

• JSOST has facilitated science collaboration– e.g. Ocean Research Priorities Plan (being refreshed)– Need to update structure to meet emerging priorities

• NOPP has successfully managed and funded interagency science programs

• Budget integration/authority is the weak link– Need for enhanced role of OMB in the process– Need for integrated climate budget and corresponding

ocean budget

• Examples of inadequate coordination: climate research, ocean observations & oceans and human health research

International Collaborations

The oceanic and climate change are global issues that cannot be addressed unilaterally. They also provide an opportunity to leverage resources, promote technology transfer and improve foreign relations.

• Satellites – Opportunities for collaboration/data sharing

• Arctic – Competing interests & claims on resources – yet shared need for research and monitoring

• Successful International Ocean programs include the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program and the Census of Marine Life

Implementation Priorities1. Ocean Observing System

• Part of a climate/earth observing architecture

• Sustained remote sensing of ocean topography, sea surface wind vectors & ocean color

• In situ biological & chemical sensor development & deployment (e.g. pH)

• Particular need for Arctic observing system to monitor atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions

Implementation Priorities

2. Ocean Acidification Program

• To monitor, understand and predict impacts on ecosystems

• pH sensors need to be developed and deployed in observing systems such as IOOS, OOI & Argo.

• Program to study ecosystem response to acidification.

• Investigate the interplay between ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling in an increasingly acidic ocean.

Implementation Priorities

3. Large-Scale Marine Ecosystem Studies

• Emphasize ecosystem-based approaches to management

• Link coastal & offshore ocean and terrestrial watershed ecosystems

• Require core set of observing and modeling systems

• Need to focus on areas affected by urban processes

Implementation Priorities

4. Need for an Integrated Ocean/Climate/Earth Observation System and Science Budget

• Existing patchwork of agencies and programs is insufficient to meet the growing demand for information.

• No single federal agency has the mission, ability or resources to develop, build and maintain the required architecture for a sustained, long-term, global climate observing and science system.

• OSTP needs the budget authority to develop, request and manage a dedicated climate/ocean observation system and science budget.

Economic Impacts and Jobs

• Information is a commodity – there is a wealth of data in the ocean that has tremendous economic value.

• Exporting Technology – every nation requires the ability to acquire, integrate and disseminate environmental information and will make investments to access the required technology.

• Protecting lives, property and jobs – the ability to accurately forecast future conditions based on ocean parameters such as sea-level has enormous implications for building sustainable healthy communities.