OCCUPATIONAL INFORMATION IN AUSTRALIA

National Forum on Labour Market Information

Workshop presentation

Denis Hart

Employment Analysis and Evaluation Group, DEWRCanberra, Australia

Overview of presentation

Four areas of discussion:

• Employment projections - for industries and occupations

• Occupational coding – development of new occupational classification (ANZSCO)

• Online occupational information – Job Outlook, Job Explorer, Australian Training

• Matching job seekers and vacancies – moving towards ‘perfect matching’

Industry employment projections

• Recent/historical employment data – trend data from 1986, changes over 10/5/2/1 years (including % pa)

• Monash model forecasts – large scale, input-output based simulation model of economy/employment; includes macroeconomic scenario (cyclical variations)

• Service industries (where most of the ‘employment action’ happens) not modelled in as much detail as manufacturing

• ‘Reality’ test model forecasts and prepare ‘DEWR’ projections for around 160 industries – constant % pa for next six years (all industries agrees with Treasury ‘out year’ forecasts)

• ‘Preferred’ industry employment forecasts are put into Monash model – to generate alternate set of occupation projections

Occupational employment projections

• Examine Monash model forecasts (including ‘DEWR’ version), and actual employment growth trends

• Projections are ‘anchored’ by the Monash model forecasts and our previous projections (2000 to 2003)

• Factors considered: recent/historical employment growth, whether occupation is in growth industries, vacancy trends and qualitative information on occupations (eg new technology, structural change, changes in work organisation)

• Employment projections are ‘reconciled’ and converted into our occupational structure

• Prepare quantitative projections, but ‘publish’ decile ratings in Job Outlook (with guide as to range of growth rates)

Using employment projections

• Strong demand for forward-looking industry and occupation data - employment services, career exploring, education planning

• New ways of communicating key messages from projections (eg share of new jobs, largest contributors to future job growth)

• DEWR focuses on the demand side (employment portfolio), but interest in demand and supply comparisons (eg Workforce 2005)

• Looking at greater sharing of employment projections across government agencies (eg future graduate labour market, VET planning and industry skill needs)

• Employment growth is key consideration in job prospects, but job turnover, unemployment and other factors considered (eg skill shortages, main employing industries)

Occupational classification

• Australia and New Zealand are currently developing a new occupational classification structure – the Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO)

• Jointly being developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Statistics New Zealand (SNZ), with assistance from DEWR (we are closely involved with its development)

• This will replace the existing classification – Australian Standard Classification of Occupations (ASCO) 2nd edition

• Due for implementation in 2006 Censuses in New Zealand (early 2006) and Australia (August 2006).

ANZSCO - overview of timeline• 1986 - classification of occupations standardised with

implementation of 1st edition of ASCO

• Review of classification is conducted every ten years, in line with every second Australian Census

• 1996 - ASCO 2nd edition implemented for Australia – nine major groups, 35 sub-major groups, 82 minor groups and 340 unit groups (and 986 ‘occupations’)

• ANZSCO is to be implemented in 2006 - in time for the Australian and New Zealand Censuses.

• A draft of the proposed occupational structure for ANZSCO is nearing completion, and user views are being sought.

• ICT occupations have been a particular focus – DEWR has been coordinating an ICT nomenclature working group

Conceptual Model• ANZSCO will be a skill based classification, using the

concepts of both skill level and skill specialisation to group occupations together.

• ANZSCO will differ from previous occupation classifications in the application of skill level.

• Like ASCO 2nd edition, there will be five skill levels in ANZSCO, ranging from occupations requiring a degree and work experience (such as Specialist Medical Practitioners), to those which require only the completion of compulsory secondary schooling and no experience (eg Kitchenhands).

• Previously, skill level was applied at the major group level of the classification (each Major Group had only one skill level).

Conceptual Model (continued)• In ANZSCO, skill level is applied less rigidly than previously –

however, each sub-major group will be at one skill level only, with some exceptions.

• Responding to feedback about ASCO 2nd edition, approach is aimed at classification being more user-friendly and intuitive at all levels, including better titling and groupings at each level.

• Three options were developed: (1) minor changes to ASCO 2nd edition; (2) preferred option; and (3) a user-friendly and less conceptually rigorous option - developed by DEWR.

• Stakeholders have been consulted throughout the development process and will be provided with a full draft of the structure for their consideration by mid 2004.

Comparison of major groups

ASCO 2ND edition ANZSCO

Managers and administrators Managers

Professionals Professionals

Associate professionals Technicians and trades workers

Tradespersons

Advanced clerical and service Community and personal service workers

Intermediate clerical, sales and service Clerical and administrative workers

Intermediate production and transport Sales workers

Elementary clerical, sales and service Machinery operators and drivers

Labourers Labourers

Nine major groups Eight major groups

DEWR ‘top’ occupational structure

Accounting, Finance and Management

Health, Fitness, Hair and Beauty

Building and Construction

Cleaning

Labourers, Factory and Machine Workers

Clerks, Receptionists and Secretaries

Marketing and Sales Representatives

Computing and IT

Drivers and Transport

Electrical and Electronics Trades

Engineering, Science and the Environment

Food, Hospitality and Tourism

Gardening, Farming and Fishing

Media, the Arts and Printing

Metal and Engineering Trades

Motor Vehicle Service and Repair

Sales Assistants and Storepersons

Social, Welfare and Security

Teaching, Child Care and Library

Skilled vacancies – Professionals and Trades

0

50

100

150

200

250

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Professionals Trades

Job Outlook online - Chefs

Key indicators (graph) - Chefs

Key indicators (table) - Chefs

Chefs Indicator Rank (decile)

How many workers are employed in this occupation? 50,000 9

What is the mix of full-time and part-time jobs? 83.9% FT 5

How much do full-time workers earn on average (before tax)? $668 per week 4

How does unemployment compare with other occupations? Average 6

Long-term employment growth – 10 years (to May 2003) 6.3% a year 8

Medium-term employment growth – 5 years (to may 2003) 3.4% a year 6

Short-term employment growth – 2 years (to May 2003) 5.2% a year 7

What is the likely future employment growth (to 2009-10)? strong growth++ 10

Is the occupation employed mainly in growth industries? highly favourable 10

Job openings from turnover – how many leave the occupation? 13.7% a year 7

Vacancies – does the occupation have a high vacancy level? very high 9

JOB PROSPECTS VERY GOOD 10

Job Prospects

In assessing job prospects DEWR examines:

• Projected employment growth for the next six years (including forecasts from the ‘Monash’ model)

• Historical employment trends

• Whether the occupation is employed in growth industries

• Unemployment for the occupation

• Vacancy trends and graduate employment outcomes

• Whether there are skill shortages

• Job turnover - the number of workers leaving the occupation (job opportunities for new workers)

Sources of vacancies - Chefs

Educational profile - Chefs

Job Explorer – occupational ‘gold mine’

Jobjuice – for school leavers

Matching on Occupation

• Status quo for most matching, albeit with some refinements (matching on skills in ‘text’ in resumes/vacancies)

• Vocational profiles: job seekers select up to five ‘areas’ of interest and up to 25 occupations for matching

• Vacancies from Job Placement Organisations (JPOs): linked via 10,000+ keywords to occupations (unique occupation for each keyword)

• External vacancies (eg online recruitment sites): also coded to occupations via keywords as prelude to matching

• Matching could be refined through an option to match on ‘job titles’ and/or ‘skills’, aided by ‘drop down’ menus.

Matching on Job Title• Option would be to match on ‘job title’ independent of the

coded occupation

• Example 1: ‘hotel receptionist’ (linked to ‘receptionist’ occupation - more easily matched by hotel employer)

• Example 2: ‘financial analyst’, coded to ‘financial adviser’ could also be matched by accounting employer

• Job title matching would add precision, and ‘drop down’ menus, reflecting frequency of vacancy occurrence (see accountant), could add structure and better matching

• Around 2,000 job titles (guesstimate) in Australia. Keywords file of 10,500 ‘titles’ would be a way to start to developing a list of job titles.

Accountant – Job Titles (ranked)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Accountant

Financial Accountant

Management Accountant

Senior Accountant

Chartered Accountant

Financial Analyst

Business Analyst

Tax Accountant

Intermediate Accountant

Auditor

Credit Analyst

Systems Accountant

Tax Consultant/Advisor

Senior Auditor

Comp Accountant

Internal Auditor

Corporate Accountant

Group Accountant

Cost Accountant

Fund Accountant

Project Accountant

Matching on Skills

• Towards ‘perfect matching’: job title and skills

• A ‘what employers want’ approach (vacancy focused - job seekers responding to employers’ advertised skill needs)

• How do we gather data on skills and their importance?

• Possible sources: current and recent vacancies, specialised recruiting sites, industry training packages

• Could focus on skills/job requirements as in vacancies, ranked by frequency (Accountants example)

• Other issues: employability skills (important to employers, but only partly in vacancies) and occupational requirements (eg licence for taxi driving).

Accountant – Skills (ranked)

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Accountancy

CPA

Tax

Certified Accountant

MYOB

Chartered Accounting

Reporting

Computer Skills

Excel

Financial Accounting

Customer Service

Business Services

Payroll

Financial Reports

Budgeting

Bookeeping/Asst Acc't

BAS Returns

Supervision

Accounts Payable

Analysis

Matching Vacancies and Job Seekers

• ‘Perfect matching’ would offer matching at four levels:

– Occupation (around 400 occupations – ‘receptionist’)– Occupation and skills (for ‘receptionist’ overall) – Job title (possibly around 2000 – ‘medical receptionist’)– Job title and skills (skills for ‘medical receptionist’)

• Key issues include:– How to ‘capture’ vacancy and job seeker information to

facilitate better matching– How to improve ‘gateways’ to matching: top occupational

structure and perhaps incorporate an industry focus– Incorporation of easy to use ‘drop down/click on’ menus.