observation impact workshop, geneva, 19-21 may 2008 intercomparison of sensitivity to observations...
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Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
Intercomparison of sensitivity to observations in the context of THORPEX and the THORPEX Pacific-Asia regional
campaign (T-PARC)
Pierre GauthierDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Université du Québec à Montréal
Contributions from Carla Cardinali (ECMWF), Ron Gelaro (GMAO),Rolf Langland (NRL), Pat Harr (NPS),Florence Rabier and Gérald Desroziers (Météo-France)Stéphane Laroche and Simon Pellerin (Environment Canada)
Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
Introduction
• The THORPEX data assimilation and observation strategies working group (DAOS-WG)
• Intercomparison experiment on observation impact
• The Pacific-Asia Regional Campaign (T-PARC)
• Evaluating the impact of observations collected during the T-PARC– The value of targeted data
• Perspectives
Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
Objectives of THORPEX DAOS-WG• Impact of observations
– Guidance for observation campaigns and the configuration of the Global Observing system
– Evaluation of observation impact with different systems
– Assessment of the value of targeted observations– Intercomparison experiment in the context of the T-
PARC campaign• Improving the use of satellite data
– Use of sensitivity information to do adaptive data thinning
– Related to the use of flow dependent background error covariances
– OSSEs
Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
The observation impact intercomparison experiment
• Baseline experiment– Common set of observations assimilated by all centres– Assimilation and model configurations– Metrics to measure the impact of observations
• Selection of period– Winter phase of the T-PARC: December 2008 to
February 2009– Period selected: January 2007
• observations available were closer to what would be available during T-PARC
Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
Observations assimilated by NRL, GMAO and ECMWF(also at Météo-France and Environment Canada)
• Radiosondes• Dropsondes• Land surface stations (all data except winds and
humidity)• Ship surface (winds and ps)• Aircraft (all data except humidity) • AMV from geostationary satellites (no rapid-scan winds)• MODIS winds• AMSU-A radiances• QuikScat
Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
Comparison of the characteristics of the systems
NRL GMAO ECMWF
AnalysisT239L303D-Var
0.5ºx0.67ºL723D-Var
T255L6012-h 4D-Var
Forecasts T239L300.5ºx0.67º L72(Finite Volume model) T255L60
Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
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Sensitivity to Observations:
Sensitivity to Background:
Adjoint of Assimilation Equation
Adjoint of forecast model produces sensitivity to
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Baker and Daley 2000 (QJRMS)
Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
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Observations move the model state from the “background” trajectory to the new “analysis” trajectory
The difference in forecast error norms, , is due to the combined impact of all observations assimilated at 00UTC
Observation Impact Methodology(Langland and Baker, 2004)
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OBSERVATIONS ASSIMILATED
00UTC + 24h
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Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
Evaluation of the impact of observations
• Measure of the reduction in forecast error
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• Evaluation at the initial time
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Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
Sensitivity with respect to analysis
• Configuration of the measure of forecast error– Departure with respect to a verifying analysis (each
centre uses its own)– Dry adjoint model – 24h (third order) sensitivity gradient (LB04), dry
forecast error norm, from surface to 150hPa
• Forecast Sensitivity to Observation– impact at 0,6,12,18 (3D-Var or 4D-Var 6h) or 00, 12
(4D-Var 12 h)
Total observation impact at 00 UTC
Total observation impact at 12 UTC
Observation count
x107x107
Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
Impact per observation
X10-6
NAVDAS-NOGAPS
Percent of observations that produce forecast error reduction (e24 – e30 < 0)
Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
Other approaches to evaluate the impact of observations
• OSEs
• Information content and the degrees of freedom per signal (DFS)– DFS = tr (AB-1)– Reduction of analysis error
ECMWFWMO Observation Impact Geneva May 2008 slide 17
Observation Forecast Sensitivity Intercomparison(J/kg Dry norm - LB4 SG 0-150 hPa)
and Observation Analysis Sensitivity(10-6)
Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
Preliminary conclusions
• Numerous differences between the systems remain– Baseline experiment provided a common context against which
three different systems evaluated the impact of observations with the same method
– Differences persist in terms of assimilation methodologies and models (e.g., 3D-Var and 4D-Var)
– The impact of observations differs from one system to another– For each system, the total impact of observations evaluated with
the LB04 method is consistent with results from OSEs.
• Further experimentation with different approaches– Ensemble methods (Météo-France)– Encourage other centres to participate
North American Region
THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)
David ParsonsCo-chair ,North American THORPEX Regional Committee
Contributions from Tetsuo Nakazawa, Dehui Chen, Pat Harr, Istvan Szunyogh, Anna Agusti-Panareda, Sarah Jones, Martin
Weismann, Carla Cardinali, etc…
North American Region
Western WA Flood (Seattle1-day record)
CA Wild Fires(downslope winds)
BC’s flood of the Century (18.5”)
What is happeningin this region?
Major scientific issues for T-PARC
• Tropical cyclogenesis– Better understand the large-scale influences on cyclogenesis
and their relation to cyclone structure– To examine the predictability of cyclogenesis and develop
strategies to improve forecast skill– To examine the evolution and the role of convection during
cyclogenesis
• Recurvature– To understand dynamic/thermodynamic environmental fields
which affect TC recurvature– To better understand ensemble spread and improve the
utilization of ensemble information in disaster mitigation– To develop, refine typhoon targeting capabilities with the goal of
improving regional and downstream predictions
Major scientific issues for T-PARC
• Extra-Tropical transition– Factors limiting the regional and global predictability of the
interaction between the tropical cyclone and the mid-latitude flow– Structural changes in the tropical cyclone core during the ET
process and how these changes are related to the evolution of the distribution of precipitation
– to develop and test observational, assimilation and modeling strategies to improve local and downstream predictive skill for ET events
• Winter storms– to develop and test new adaptive observation strategies for winter
systems that overcome the current limitations of aircraft targeting– to better understand and predict Rossby wave triggering and
enhancement in the Pacific wave guides– to extend the adaptive use of in-situ and satellite observations to
medium range prediction
Proposing Institutions • North America
– US Academic Community: SUNY at Stony Brook, U. of Hawaii, Naval Post Graduate School, U. of North Carolina Charlotte, Pen. State, U. of Washington, U of Maryland, SUNY Albany, U of Miami, U of Wisconsin, Florida State U
– US Research Institutions: NCAR, NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/NWS, Naval Research Lab, NASA/Goddard
– Canada: Environment Canada• Asia
– China: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Chinese Meteorological Administration plus members of the Academic Community in China
– Japan: Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC), Kyoto U, Nagoya U, Tohoku U, Tsukuba U, U of Tokyo
– Korea: Korean Meteorological Administration, Cheju National U, Ehwa Womans U, Kongju National U, Kyungpook National U, Seoul National U,Yonsei
– Collaboration with an expanded DOTSTAR program
• Europe– Germany: U of Karlrsuhe, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, DLR, – Others (ECMWF and National Met Centers)
T-PARC and ObservingSystem/Observing Strategies Research
• Typhoon genesis– Relevant science
• Impact of assimilating new type of measurements on typhoon genesis (radar reflectivity, winds in clear air and clouds, synoptic style in-situ obs vs dropsondes, rapid scan satellite obs)
• Evaluation of initial condition and model error in genesis regions
• Advancing knowledge of the genesis process and the factors limiting predictive skill
– Instruments• NRL P-3 with ELDORA Doppler radar, dropsondes, ocean
SST and (perhaps) a Doppler lidar for mesoscale (US)• Driftsonde and tropical island radiosonde sites for large-scale
for 2007 and 2008 (proposed China, France, and US)
T-PARC and ObservingSystem/Observing Strategies Research
• Typhoon landfall and recurvature– Instruments
• NRL P-3 with ELDORA Doppler radar, dropsondes, ocean SST and (perhaps) a Doppler lidar for mesoscale (US)
• DLR Falcon with Doppler lidar, water vapor lidar and dropsondes
• Dropsonde aircraft (China, DOTSTAR, Japan, Korea?)• Driftsonde for 2007 and 2008 (proposed China, France, US)• Coordination of Chinese IOPs over land: SCHeREX-“973”
basic research project; Tibet-Est surrounding Exp., 4 MeTebs of LaSW (Guangzhou, Wuhan, Anhui and Shanghai)
• Rapid scan MTSAT satellite observations• Collaboration with extended DOTSTAR program (dropsonde
aircraft and driftsonde)
T-PARC and ObservingSystem/Observing Strategies Research
• Extra-Tropical transition– Relevant science
• Advance understanding and test the regional and downstream impacts of targeted measurements (typhoon vs middle latitude) by in-situ and satellite measurements
• Impacts of future remote sensing strategies from space (winds, water vapor, radars with frequent updates)
• Understanding the factors that limit predictability
Forecast Skill BifurcationET Tracks
From Jones et al., 2003: Wea. And Forecasting
General Decrease in Forecast Skill for ET Storms
T-PARC and ObservingSystem/Observing Strategies Research
• Winter phase– Instruments
• Upgraded and enhanced Russian radiosonde network and continuation of some Chinese land-based sounding enhancements (Tibetan Plateau)
• US NOAA G-IV with dropsondes (western Pacific)• Air Force C-130’s with dropsondes (central Pacific)• NOAA P-3 or other assets in the eastern Pacific• NOAA and NASA satellites
• Relevant science• Value of sensitivity information for targeting and adaptive
data selection strategies• Led by Zoltan Toth
Summary and conclusion (1)
• New approaches are being investigated to evaluate the impact of observations on the quality of forecasts– Forecast sensitivity to observations
• Adjoint based approaches• Ensemble methods (e.g., ETKF)• DFS and information content
– Objective is to obtain robust and reliable methods to evaluate the impact of observations on the quality of weather forecasts
• Intercomparison experiment– Numerous components are involved associated with model,
observations, assimilation methods and flow regimes– Intercomparison experiment has value in that it reduces several
of the differences to bring the systems on a common ground (e.g., observations used, flow regimes, resolution)
– Calibration of assimilation systems raises some questions about the value of ‘degrading’ a system in that context
Summary and conclusion (2)• Value of data deployed during T-PARC
– Experiment aims at capturing the different stages of Tropical cyclones from their genesis to their migration into northern latitudes
– Value of data over the Pacific for the short to medium-range forecasts over Asia and North America
– Meteorological high-impact events in Asia and North America
• Data assimilation objectives– Assess the impact of observations on deterministic and
probabilistic forecasts– Targeting techniques and adaptive satellite data assimilation– Large sets of data will be made available that could be used to
better use satellite data in those situations
Thank you
Observation Impact Workshop, Geneva, 19-21 May 2008
Other objectives• Research on model error modeling and estimation
– Considered to be a necessity for model of increasing resolution, convection, cloud representation
• ECMWF: weak-constraint 4D-Var with long assimilation windows
– Biases need to be addressed too – Explore possibilities of using TIGGE framework to estimate model and background
error characteristics
• Observation error correlation– Design of observation campaign to estimate observation error statistics– Identify existing Cal/Val campaigns with similar objectives (in collaboration with the
Obs WG)– Make it known what exactly the assimilation needs in terms of observation error
characteristization
• Data assimilation in the Tropics– THORPEX and AMMA