oasis being used in international/ community projectsf6545570-a8a6-477f...3 eu climate-kic funded...
TRANSCRIPT
Julie Calkins & Fred Hattermann
& Future Danube Team
Oasis being used in
international/ community
projects
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Why applying OASIS LMF in international projects?
• There is a growing demand for user oriented climate services(„Climate services ensure that the best available climate science is effectively communicated with agriculture, water, health, and other sectors (-> insurance!), to develop and evaluate adaptation strategies. Easily accessible, timely, and decision-relevant scientific information ….”)
• Huge (public and private) funds are currently allocated tobetter understand climate (and weather) related hazardsand risks
• Needed is an open source standard for risk assessment that can be used by different sectors
• OASIS LMF provides “tools and utility to all” (-> easy to apply software, user support, workshops, community etc.)
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EU Climate-KIC funded• Open access cat-modelling driving adaptation to
enable resilience in an uncertain future
• Set-up of the flood risk model for the Danubestarted in 2016
• Funding for the Danube until end of 2017
EU Horizon 2020 funded• Project duration Mai 2017 – April 2020
• Multi-hazard and multi-risk
• Strong cooperation with the OASIS consortium
• OASIS LMF and Genillard & Co are partners
• Several insurers committed their interest
• Climate service call
Two examples
Programme key elementsWorking with OASIS since 2011, ‘Flagship’ status in 2017
How CKIC sees itself - the program acts as a catalyst to accelerate new market
development - attract supply, nurture demand, and build the end-user community for
both climate risk mitigation and adaptation
Support key entities that help set standards and provide the marketplace
Demonstrate use of climate risk data and models beyond insurance
Support enabling activity: capacity-building and financial innovation
13 innovation projects and a core community of 30 organisations incl NGOs, insurers,
research/thinktank, City/local, and start-ups in viz and analytical tools
Connections with global policy piece, development/DRR actors and CoEs, EC/EUCPM,
WB, UN
Standards and marketplace Set Standards: Further develop and promote the Oasis Loss
Modelling Framework (LMF, to improve pricing of climate risk and
open up the ‘black box’ of catastrophe modelling.
Provide a Market place: There is a need for a collaborative market
exchange to drive the global market by linking demand for risk
analytics, with the supply of open climate risk data and
catastrophe models, tools and services. The OASIS Hub is the most
prominent example.
Building Capacity and Capability: Translation and implementation,
developing tools and services to aid standardisation and
interoperability.
http://www.oasislmf.org/
https://www.oasishub.co.uk/
Climate Risk Information – EcosystemThe Vision: An open, global, and transparent marketplace for climate risk information
Analytical tools
Marketplace Biz development
Data & models marketing
Supply DemandMarket Place
Academia/Research
OASIS LMF(Market “standard
setter”)
Service Provider
Service Provider
SMEs
(Re)insurance
(Re)Insurance
Infrastructure, Agric, Industry
Public authorities
Health sector –public & private
MOOC providers
E-Marketplace(OASIS Hub)
Public institutions and donors
Supply chains
Climate-KIC (and other funders / multipliers) as convener, enabler and champion
Modelling Companies
Other consultants /services
Crowd sourcing
2017-19: Demonstrate the value of climate risk dataIn end-user investment, insurance &/or planning decisions
Pluvial flooding risk assessment and adaptation for cities with Vjele, Gothenburg, Paris and responding to SCOR needs
Using risk models to improve loss calculations and adaptation planning, with DCLG, health systems actors, EurapCo
Cities
Health
and cross-cutting effort to foster risk transfer methods and lower the
barriers to engagement
Capacity-BuildingTools for increasing use and usefulness and usability, training for researchers, small insurers cities and utilities
New Financial Products
Sovereign credit rating, city risk pooling facility
Multi-hazard tailored risk models for agric insurance in CEE and E Africa, matching needs re/ins SwissRe, ACHMEA, WTW
Agric
Climate Risk Information flagship program
We are:
An active community of partners in supply/demand around Oasis family
Pulling in public funders and research model developers
Looking to extend the impact of risk modelling tools to new
users/customers
Growing our portfolio of projects (upcoming call!)
For more information, please get in touch: [email protected]
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H2020 Insurance – project background
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Future Danube Model: climate service offer
• Better understanding of hazard and risk under current conditions and in areas which are currently model underdeveloped
• Better understanding of hazard and risk under future conditions
• End-user driven: Cooperation with the private (insurance) and public sectors
Why the Danube?
• 19 Countries and 83 million people, 4 capitals
• 2002 floods in Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Moldova, Switzerland, and Slovakia, causing total damages of 16,5 billion Euro (3,400 billion insured losses) and 39 fatalities
• 2013 floods in Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Switzerland, causing damages of 12,600 billion Euro (3,100 billion insured losses), and 25 fatalities (NatCatSERVICE, Munich RE)
Future Danube: Model suite
Imperial College
PIK Potsdam
GFZ Potsdam
DTU Kopenhagen
PIK Potsdam
& Additional partners:
• OASIS LMF
• Genillard & Co
• Pannon Pro
• Budapest Water Works
• Insurance sector
Continuous simulation model of flood risk
chain
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Eco-hydrol. Model: SWIM
Flood Loss Model: direct damage to
res. buildings
River Network Routing:
1D Channel Network Model
Hinterland Inundation:
2D Raster-Based Inertia Model
Bankfull discharge threshold value
dike over-
topping
discharge
Weather Generator
Meteorological
fields
Routed flow
flood maps of
max. water
levels
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Modelling concept
Big data -> condensed information
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240,000 years of daily climate and hydrological data~13,0000 river sections ~200,000 spatial units
Robust risk information
Future Danube: Model suite
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JJA precipitation for Upper Danube basin
X – 30 years of
CORDEX data
X – 10,000
years of IMAGE
data
Input: Realistic daily precipitation generated by weather
module (many more events than observed -> rare (extreme) events)
The largest observed
event
These extreme events
were never observed,
but are possible and
cause the huge
damages
S. Hardwick, Imperial College
Future Danube: Model suite *
River sections and subbasins upper part of the
Danube until Budapest
Subbasins 13,778
Elements 186,296
PIK Potsdam
PIK Potsdam
Change in recurrence of 100 year flood
Agreement in projections
PIK Potsdam
Change in flood frequency under CC *
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increase in frequency
increase in intensity(water levels)
These statistics are there for each of the ~13,0000 river sections
PIK Potsdam
Change in flood frequency under CC
23PIK Potsdam
Spatial change in hydrology
24PIK Potsdam
Future Danube: Model suite *
Loss estimation
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Spatially detailed or aggregated risk assessment
T0: EUR 744 Mio
T1: EUR 641 Mio
T2: EUR 281 Mio
Partner: GFZ Potsdam
Pluvial flooding (example: Vienna)
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Spatially detailed or aggregated risk assessment
T0: EUR 744 Mio
T1: EUR 641 Mio
T2: EUR 281 Mio
Partner: Danish Technical University
Link to OASIS LMF
The resulting flood event set and vulnerability functions provide flood hazard footprints and the vulnerability components as input to the Oasis Loss Model Framework (LMF).
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Event
Hazard Vulnerability
Damage Bin Dictionary
Vulnerability Dictionary
Intensity Bin
Dictionary
Exposure
(Item)
Area Peril Dictionary
Take home messages
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• Climate change impacts on large-scale hazard and risk
• Modular approach for either applying the entire suite to get consistent multi-peril estimates or to plug-in external modules or data within OASIS LMF
• Open GIS technologies for visualization of results
• Probabilistic approach as improved basis for informed decision making under uncertainty
• Tailor made models focusing on user needs and sites
Further information: www.oasisdanube.eu
Many thanks!
Contacts:
Julie Calkins, Climate-KIC
Fred Hattermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Increasing robustness of risk
information
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Uncertainty bounds (in blue)
before and after -> decreasing
uncertainty
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