nzuri* nyanzaga orecorp limited · production metrics 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e other current assets...
TRANSCRIPT
OreCorp Limited
Precious Metals - Developer/Explorer
Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX)The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal, independent and objective views about any and allthe companies and securities that are the subject of this report discussed herein.
Australian Equity Research4 September 2016
SPECULATIVE BUYPRICE TARGET A$1.00Price (2-Sep)Ticker
A$0.50ORR-ASX
52-Week Range (A$): 0.05 - 0.74Avg Daily Vol (M) : 7.2Market Cap (A$M): 81.5Shares Out. (M) : 173.4Enterprise Value (A$M): 64.2NAV /Shr (5%) (A$): 1.00Net Cash (A$M): 17.3P/NAV (x) : 0.47Major Shareholders: Australian Super
JP Morgan
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ORR
Source:�FactSet
Reg Spencer | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd. | [email protected] | +61.2.9263.2701Tim McCormack | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd. | [email protected] | +61.8.6216.2088Larry Hill | Associate Analyst | Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Ltd. | [email protected] | +61.2.9263.2745
Initiation of Coverage
Nzuri* Nyanzaga* - "very good" in SwahiliOreCorp Ltd (ORR:ASX) is a gold/base metals development and exploration companywith several projects located in Africa. The company's key asset is the right to earn up to51% of the 3.3Moz Nyanzaga Gold project, located in NW Tanzania, from project partnerAcacia Mining (ACA:LON | rated SELL by Nick Hatch). Recent studies have highlightedthe project's quality attributes (high grade, simple metallurgy, potential scale/mine life,and low costs), while a high quality management team with deep African operatingexperience and a track record of major success adds significantly to the stock's appeal.With 100% upside potential to our target price, we initiate coverage with a SPECULATIVEBUY rating.HighlightsScoping Study confirms Nyanzaga is a high quality gold project. ORR releasedthe outcomes of a Scoping Study on Nyanzaga in Aug'16, which demonstrated theviability of a US$248m, +10 year, 4 Mtpa open pit and underground project producing+180kozpa (up to 220kozpa in the first five years) at AISC of US$870/oz. Otherattractive attributes of the project include its location in a mining friendly jurisdiction,proximity to infrastructure, and potential for upside through in-mine resource extensions,improved gold recoveries and regional exploration opportunities.Base case valuation supported through Earn-in & JV with Acacia Mining. ORR firstacquired an interest in Nyanzaga in Sep'15 through a JV and earn-in with ACA to earnup to a 51% interest in the project. Under the agreement ORR may spend up to US$14m to complete a DFS (before end'18) to earn a 25% interest, which can go to 51%via a combination of staged cash payments of US$5m and a capped US$10m royalty.However, ACA retains the option to maintain a 75% interest, in which case it will haveto make an NPV multiple-based payment of between 3-6x ORR’s earn-in spend. If ACAexercises its claw-back, we see limited downside (based on our current forecasts) forORR through the retention of a potentially fully funded (pro-rata capital contributionscovered by ACA's claw-back option fee) 25% interest in an advanced, quality gold project.High calibre management with enviable track record. ORR is headed up by amanagement team with extensive African operating experience, and a demonstrabletrack record of creating value for shareholders. Among them include Chairman CraigWilliams, who was a founder and CEO of Equinox Minerals (acquired for $7bn in 2011),and CEO Matt Yates, who was the former Managing Director of Mantra Resources(acquired for $1bn in 2010).ValuationOur A$1.00/share target price is based on a sum of the parts (Net Asset Valuation)approach, comprising a probability weighted NPV10% valuation for ORR’s interest in theNyanzaga gold project, a nominal value ascribed to the company’s Akjoujt South Cu-Niexploration project, net of corporate and other adjustments.
For important information, please see the Important Disclosures beginning on page 28 of this document.
2
Source: Company data, Canaccord Genuity estimates
FINANCIAL SUMMARY OreCorp Ltd ORR:ASX
Analyst: Reg Spencer Rating:
Date: 2/09/2016 Target Price: $1.00
Year End: June
Market Information Company Description
Share Price A$ 0.480
Market Capitalisation A$m 83.2
12 Month Hi A$ 0.74
12 Month Lo A$ 0.05
Issued Capital m 173.41
Options m 8.54 Profit & Loss (A$m) 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e
Fully Diluted m 181.95 Revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Operating Costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Royalties 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Valuation A$m A$/share Corporate & O'heads 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2
Nyanzaga NPV @ 10% 182.3 0.81 Exploration (Expensed) 0.7 2.6 2.4 1.1
Exploration & Resources 10.0 0.04 EBITDA -1.6 -3.6 -3.3 -1.9
Corporate (8.7) (0.04) Dep'n 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash, bullion & investments 17.3 0.08 EBIT -1.6 -3.6 -3.3 -1.9
Debt - - Net Interest 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
Unpaid capital 20.0 0.09 Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ITM options 3.9 0.02 NPAT -1.6 -3.6 -3.3 -1.9
TOTAL Net Asset Valuation 220.9 0.99 Abnormals 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Price/NAV 0.48 NPAT (reported) -0.7 -3.3 -3.3 -1.9
NAV at Spot US$1,326/oz, AUDUSD $0.76 0.94
Target Price 1.00 Cash Flow (A$m) 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e
Cash Receipts 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Assumptions 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e Cash paid to suppliers & employees -1.7 -1.6 -1.1 -1.2
Gold Price (US$/oz) 1,224 1,180 1,375 1,391 Tax Paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
AUD:USD 0.83 0.73 0.74 0.73 Net Interest 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
Gold Price (A$/oz) 1,471 1,615 1,846 1,896 Operating Cash Flow -1.6 -1.6 -0.9 -0.8
Exploration and Evaluation 0.0 -1.7 -15.5 -7.0
NAV Sensitivity Capex 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.4 -1.9 0.0 0.0
Investing Cash Flow 0.4 -3.7 -15.5 -7.0
Debt Drawdown (repayment) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Share capital 0.0 16.2 20.0 0.0
Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Financing Expenses 0.0 -0.8 -1.0 0.0
Financing Cash Flow 0.0 15.4 19.0 0.0
Opening Cash 7.3 7.0 17.3 19.9
Increase / (Decrease) in cash -1.2 10.1 2.6 -7.8
FX Impact 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Closing Cash 7.0 17.3 19.9 12.1
Balance Sheet (A$m) 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e
Cash + S/Term Deposits 7.0 17.3 19.9 12.1
Production Metrics 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e Other current assets 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1
Nyanzaga Current Assets 7.2 17.3 19.9 12.2
Gold Production (koz) 0 0 0 0 Property, Plant & Equip. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
AISC 0 0 0 0 Exploration & Develop. 0.0 0.0 13.2 19.1
Other Non-current Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Payables 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Group Reserves & Resources Mt Grade Moz Short Term debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reserves (100%) Long Term Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nyanzaga 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other Liabilities 0.0 -2.4 -3.4 -3.3
Reserves TOTAL 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net Assets 7.1 19.8 36.5 34.6
Shareholders Funds 20.6 36.8 56.8 56.8
Resources (100%) Reserves 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3
Nyanzaga 29.80 3.49 3.34 Retained Earnings -14.0 -17.1 -20.0 -21.7
Resources TOTAL 29.80 3.49 3.34 Total Equity 7.1 19.8 36.5 34.6
Ratios & Multiples 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e
Directors EBITDA Margin nm nm nm nm
Name Position EV/EBITDA nm nm nm nm
C Williams Chairman Op. Cashflow/Share -$0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 $0.00
M Yates CEO & Managing Director P/CF -34.9x -52.4x -115.2x -129.5x
A Morrison NED P/FCF -69.3x -15.9x -5.1x -10.7x
M Klessens NED EPS -$0.01 -$0.02 -$0.02 -$0.01
R Rigo NED EPS Growth nm nm nm nm
PER -83.6x -20.7x -30.0x -61.5x
Dividend Per Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Substantial Shareholders Shares (m) % Dividend Yield 0% 0% 0% 0%
AustralianSuper 13.74 7.9% ROE -9% -17% -9% -5%
JP Morgan 13.03 7.5% ROIC -8% -10% -6% -3%
Westoz Funds Management 11.40 6.6% Debt/Equity 0% 0% 0% 0%
Eley Griffiths Group 9.23 5.3% Net Interest Cover nm nm nm nm
Book Value/share $0.06 $0.11 $0.17 $0.16
Price/Book Value 7.6x 4.2x 2.9x 3.0x
OreCorp (ORR:ASX) is an Australian based mineral exploration and development company. Its primary assets
are an earn-in right (up to 51%) of Acacia Mining's Nyanzaga gold project in Tanzania, and the Akjoujt Cu-Ni
exploration project in Mauritania.
SPEC BUY
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Gold Price US$ Exchange Rate
OreCorp LimitedInitiation of Coverage
Speculative Buy Target Price A$1.00 | 4 September 2016 Precious Metals - Developer/Explorer 2
3
Valuation
We value ORR using a sum of the parts (net asset valuation) approach, comprising
our probability weighted valuation for ORR’s interest in the Nyanzaga gold project
(see below), a nominal value ascribed to the company’s Akjoujt South Cu-Ni
exploration project, net of corporate and other adjustments.
Nyanzaga Project Earn-in and Joint Venture
Key terms of the agreement with ACA include:
Up-front cash payment of US$1m to earn an initial 5% interest (completed)
ORR to sole fund the JV regional exploration and pre-development costs to the
completion of a DFS to a maximum of US$14m. At completion of the DFS,
ORR will have earned a 25% interest in the project.
At the completion of the DFS, if the NPV is >US$200m, ACA has the right to
maintain its 75% interest and resume operatorship of the project through a
cash payment to ORR based on a schedule of multiples of the initial US$15m
earn-in spend. The various multiples are based on the NPV of the project as
per the DFS, and are shown in Figure 1 below.
If the NPV of the project is <US$200m, or, if ACA elects not to retain a 75%
participating interest, then ORR has a right to increase its interest in the
project to 51% by making staged payments to ACA totalling US$15m (US$3m
on election, US$2m on commencement of construction, and a 2% NSR
capped at US$10m).
Figure 1: Expenditure multiple to be paid by ACA on election to retain 75% interest
Source: Company Reports
Production scenario
We have modelled total gold production from Nyanzaga of 2.2Moz (vs Measured
& Indicated Resources of 2.77Moz) over a 12-year period, averaging 183koz pa
(+220kozpa over the first 5 years), with AISC averaging US$860/oz over the LOM.
Based on our modelled gold production and AISC (Figure 2), and assuming other
project parameters as outlined in ORR’s Scoping Study for the Nyanzaga Project,
we derive a project valuation (current period, forward curve NPV10%, commodity
price FX assumptions in Figure 3) of US$240m, or A$317m for a 100% interest in
the project.
OreCorp LimitedInitiation of Coverage
Speculative Buy Target Price A$1.00 | 4 September 2016 Precious Metals - Developer/Explorer 3
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Figure 2: CGe Nyanzaga gold production and AISC (2017e-2030e)
Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates
Figure 3: Gold price and US$/AUD$ assumptions
Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates
ORR Attributable Valuation
As ORR’s ultimate interest in the project is predicated on the outcomes of the DFS
(NPV as determined by the DFS) and the intentions of ACA, we have based our
valuation for ORR’s interest in the project on a probability-weighted series of
different outcomes as presented in the matrix below.
Figure 4: Nyanzaga project valuation matrix – CGe @ gold forward curve
Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates
At this stage, we ascribe the highest probability to Scenario 1, whereby ACA
exercises its claw-back right (and the NPV is between US$200-500m). However,
while this scenario offers the lowest net value to ORR (“worst case” for ORR), our
estimate of A$143m or A$0.76/share (undiluted) still offers considerable upside
to the current share price. We also note that under this scenario, ORR would have
25% of a quality development project (and a large, well-funded project partner),
plus +A$60m in cash (ACA claw-back option fee) which could be used to fund its
share of development costs (assuming a positive FID).
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2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e
AIS
C (
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$/o
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Go
ld p
rod
uc
tio
n (
oz)
Gold production AISC
2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Long term
Gold (US$/oz) $1,160 $1,295 $1,384 $1,397 $1,409 $1,420 $1,461
Silver (US$/oz) $15.72 $18.10 $20.50 $20.71 $20.91 $21.21 $21.29
US/AUS Exchange $0.75 $0.74 $0.74 $0.73 $0.73 $0.72 $0.72
Nyanzaga Valuation Matrix DFS
2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019
Sep Dec Mar June Sep Dec Mar June Sep Dec Mar June
Project NPV10% US$m 239.14 245.05 251.10 257.30 263.66 270.17 276.84 331.96 388.20 445.59 504.17 567.22
Cumul earn-in spend US$m 4.448 7.417 10.370 13.308 16.233
Uplift multiple x 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.5
Acacia claw back for 75% US$m 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 52.5 52.5 60 60 67.5
Acacia claw back cost A$m 60.178 60.355 60.526 60.690 60.841 61.003 61.805 72.105 72.105 82.406 82.406 92.707
NPV uplift ORR Spend ACA claw ORR Attrib ORR Attrib per sh Upside vs CG assumed A$m per sh
x US$m back (US$m) NPV (US$m) NPV (A$m) undiluted share price probability undiluted
Scenario 1: ACA retains 75%; NPV >$200m but <$500m 3.0 14.0 42.0 65.9 143.3 $0.83 76% 40.0% 57.30 $0.33
Scenario 2: ACA retains 75%; NPV >$500m 4.5 14.0 63.0 125.0 249.6 $1.44 206% 20.0% 49.91 $0.29
Scenario 3: ACA dilutes, ORR 51%; NPV $200m 0 14.0 0.0 87.0 115.5 $0.67 42% 10.0% 11.55 $0.07
Scenario 4: ACA dilutes, ORR 51%; NPV $300m 0 14.0 0.0 138.0 183.2 $1.06 125% 20.0% 36.64 $0.21
Scenario 5: ACA dilutes, ORR 51%; NPV $400m 0 14.0 0.0 189.0 250.9 $1.45 208% 5.0% 12.54 $0.07
Scenario 6: ACA dilutes, ORR 51%; NPV $500m 0 14.0 0.0 240.0 318.6 $1.84 291% 5.0% 15.93 $0.09
$183.88 $1.06
OreCorp LimitedInitiation of Coverage
Speculative Buy Target Price A$1.00 | 4 September 2016 Precious Metals - Developer/Explorer 4
5
The highest value outcomes as per our matrix have been ascribed the lowest
probability – the higher the NPV, the less likely ACA is to not exercise its claw-back
right, in our view.
While we consider that the company’s existing cash reserves of A$17m are
sufficient to progress Nyanzaga to completion of the DFS, we note that the
potential for additional exploration costs at the Akjoujt project, possible regional
exploration at Nyanzaga and corporate and overhead costs may call for additional
funding requirements. On this basis, we assume the company raises additional
equity (A$20m at $0.45/sh) in JunQ’17.
Our per share valuation/target price is based on a fully diluted share count of
217m shares (including ITM options and the impact of the above assumed capital
raising). Figure 5 details our NAV estimate for ORR, comprising our probability-
weighted asset valuation, a nominal value for exploration, net of corporate and
other adjustments. With +100% potential upside to our target, we initiate
coverage with a SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation and A$1.00 target price.
Figure 5: CG NAV estimate
Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates
A$m A$/share
Nyanzaga NPV @ 10% 182.2 0.80
Exploration & Resources 10.0 0.04
Corporate (8.7) (0.04)
Cash, bullion & investments 17.3 0.08
Debt - -
Unpaid capital 20.0 0.09
ITM options 3.9 0.02
TOTAL Net Asset Valuation 224.7 0.99
Price/NAV 0.48
Target Price 1.00
OreCorp LimitedInitiation of Coverage
Speculative Buy Target Price A$1.00 | 4 September 2016 Precious Metals - Developer/Explorer 5
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Peer Comparison
We have assessed ORR’s Nyanzaga project on a number of metrics against
Australian-listed gold development peers, and other African Gold projects. This
analysis highlights the substantial production scale (+180 kozpa) attractive grade
(Figure 9) and gold endowment (Figure 10) of the Nyanzaga project. More
significantly we note the attractive valuation multiple that ORR is currently trading
on when compared to other advanced ASX-listed gold developers (Figure 8).
Figure 6: Production & AISC - ASX listed developers Figure 7: Production & AISC - African development projects
Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates
Figure 8: EV/Resource oz (Attributable) – ASX listed companies Figure 9: Grade vs resource size - African development projects
Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates
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OreCorp LimitedInitiation of Coverage
Speculative Buy Target Price A$1.00 | 4 September 2016 Precious Metals - Developer/Explorer 6
7
Figure 10: Deposit vertical endowment and UG mining level (RL) Figure 11: Capital intensity - African development projects
Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates
Figure 12: Development Status – Major African gold projects
Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates
We note the early stage of development at Nyanzaga with capital cost estimates
at scoping level (+/- 35%) accuracy. In our view the moderate capital intensity on
a US$/ozpa basis owes much to the comparatively low supporting infrastructure
and services (utilities, water) that exist in the region which should also enable
Nyanzaga to be developed within an accelerated timeline contingent on the
outcomes of subsequent feasibility studies.
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Capital In
tensity (
US
$/o
zpa)
Asanko
Nord Gold
Perseus Mining
B2 Gold
Orezone
Endeavour Gold
West African Resources
African Gold Group
Toro Gold
Avnel
Hummingbird
Semafo
Gryphon
Perseus Mining
B2 Gold
Perseus Mining
Hummingbird Resources
Ore Corp
Esaase*Bouly
Sissingue*Fekola*
Bombore*Hounde*Tanlouka
KobadaMako
KalanaYanfolilaNatougou
BanforaYaoure*
KiakaBaohamen
DugbeNyanzaga
Scoping PFS DFS BFS Construction Commissioning
OreCorp LimitedInitiation of Coverage
Speculative Buy Target Price A$1.00 | 4 September 2016 Precious Metals - Developer/Explorer 7
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Corporate & Finance
Balance sheet
ORR has a reported cash position of A$17m as at 30 Jun’16. We consider current
cash to be sufficient for the completion of the DFS for Nyanzaga, but note that if
exploration activities are accelerated at the Akjoujt project or regional prospects
at Nyanzaga, then further capital may be required. The most recent capital raising
was undertaken in May/June 2016, when ORR raised A$16m at A$0.27/share.
Capital Structure
ORR’s capital structure is shown in Figure 13 below. The outstanding options have
an average exercise price of A$0.45, resulting in a fully diluted issued capital of
182m shares.
Figure 13: ORR capital structure
Source: Company Reports
Substantial Shareholders
Substantial shareholders include Australian Super (8%), and JPMorgan Natural
Resources (8%), WestOz Funds (6%) and Eley Griffiths (5%).
Directors & Management
Craig Williams – Chairman
Mr Williams is a geologist with over 35 years’ experience in mineral exploration and
mine development. He was the President and CEO of Equinox Minerals Limited, a dual
listed TSX - ASX company which he co-founded in 1993. He was instrumental in the
financing and development of the major Lumwana Copper mine in Zambia which
resulted in Equinox being one of the world’s top 20 copper producers. Following the
ramp-up of Lumwana, Equinox embarked on an acquisition program that resulted in
the takeover of the Citadel Resource Group for $1.2 billion, targeting development of
the Jabal Sayid Mine in Saudi Arabia. Equinox was taken over in mid-2011 by Barrick
Gold Corporation for $7 billion.
Mr Williams joined the Board of OreCorp as Chairman in December 2011.
Matthew Yates - CEO & Managing Director
Mr Yates is a geologist with over 20 years of industry experience, covering most facets
of exploration from generative work to project development. Most recently, he was the
Joint Managing Director of Mantra Resources Limited, which was acquired in 2010 for
+A$1.0bn by ARMZ. He has worked extensively in Australia and southern, east and
west Africa, Central Asia and the Gulf Region.
Mr Yates has an applied technical background and has held senior positions for over
fifteen years, including resident Exploration Manager in Tanzania for Tanganyika Gold
Limited.
Expiry
Issued Shares m 173.412
Options 1 m 2.985 23/06/2019
Options 2 m 2.8 23/06/2019
Options 3 m 2.75 31/05/2020
Total Options m 8.54
Fully Diluted m 181.947
OreCorp LimitedInitiation of Coverage
Speculative Buy Target Price A$1.00 | 4 September 2016 Precious Metals - Developer/Explorer 8
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Alastair Morrison - Non-Executive Director
Mr Morrison is a geologist with more than 20 years’ experience in mineral exploration
and investment. After graduating from university he worked for more than six years in
Australia as an exploration geologist, initially around Western Australia, then for North
Flinders Mines in the Northern Territory during the initial development of the +5
million ounce Callie gold deposit.
From 1996-2003 he worked in Tanzania for East African Gold Mines Limited at the
North Mara Gold Project, overseeing the delineation of more than 5Moz of resources,
including the discovery of the high-grade Gokona gold deposit. East African Gold
Mines was acquired by Placer Dome Inc. in mid-2003 for US$252 million.
Michael Klessens - Non-Executive Director
Mr Klessens is a CPA with over 22 years of practical financial and management
experience, particularly within the resources industry. This experience has involved all
areas of corporate and treasury management, project financing, capital raisings,
mergers and acquisitions, dual listings, feasibility studies and establishment of
systems and procedures for new mining operations.
From 2002 - 2011, Mr Klessens was Vice President - Finance and Chief Financial
Officer of Equinox Minerals Limited. Prior to Equinox Mr Klessens held senior positions
in mid-tier Australian resource companies primarily focused on gold. Mr Klessens
joined the Board of OreCorp as Director in March 2012.
Robert Rigo - Non-Executive Director
An engineer with over 35 years' experience, Mr Rigo has previously held a number of
executive and senior management positions with publicly listed mining companies. He
was Vice President - Project Development at Equinox Minerals Limited (Equinox),
where he managed the feasibility study, related technical studies and engineering
design and construction contracts for the Lumwana Copper Mine in Zambia, which
commenced production in 2008. Following Lumwana Robert managed the
construction of Equinox's Jabal Sayid (underground) Copper Mine in Saudi Arabia. Mr
Rigo's earlier job roles include Mill Manager at the Boddington Gold Mine, and General
Manager - Technical Services for Newcrest Mining Ltd,
Mr Rigo became a non-executive director of OreCorp in April 2016.
Luke Watson - CFO & Company Secretary
Mr Watson is a Chartered Accountant, Chartered Secretary and a Fellow of FINSIA. He
has significant corporate experience including mergers & acquisitions, capital raisings,
IPOs and dual listings on the TSX. Since 2005, Mr Watson has held senior corporate
and finance positions with a number of African-focused resources companies,
including Mantra Resources Limited and OmegaCorp Limited. Mr Watson was the CFO
& Company Secretary of Mantra from its IPO in October 2006 until its acquisition by
ARMZ for approximately ~A$1bn in mid-2011.
Mr Watson was appointed as CFO & Company Secretary in November 2011.
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Company Background
ORR was founded as an unlisted public company by current CEO Matt Yates in
2010. The company raised A$12m privately, with a view to acquiring development
stage projects in Africa, quickly making its first investments in Mauritania and
Ethiopia. In December 2011, the company announced the appointment of Craig
Williams as Chairman, former Founder and CEO of Equinox Minerals (acquired by
Barrick Gold for $7bn in 2011).
In 2012, ORR successfully listed on the ASX, via a takeover of Silver Stone
Resources, raising a further A$5m at A$0.20/sh in the process. The tough nature
of the resource market through 2012-2015, dictated only a modest budget for
exploration on the company’s Ethiopian project (Yubdo), while the management
team continued to seek further project and corporate opportunities.
ORR’s primary asset is now the Nyanzaga JV with Acacia Mining, located in NW
Tanzania (Figure 14).
Figure 14: Nyanzaga Project Location
Source: Company Reports
Nyanzaga Project Earn-in and Joint Venture
ORR first acquired an interest in the project in Sep’15, when it entered into an
earn-in and JV agreement with ACA to earn up to a 51% interest in the project. Key
terms of the agreement include:
Up-front cash payment of US$1m to earn an initial 5% interest (completed)
ORR to sole fund the JV regional exploration and pre-development costs to the
completion of a DFS to a maximum of US$14m to earn 25%.
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At the completion of the DFS, if the NPV is >US$200m, ACA has the right to
maintain its 75% interest and resume operatorship of the project through a
cash payment to ORR based on a schedule of multiples of the initial US$15m
earn-in spend. The various multiples are based on the NPV of the project as
per the DFS, and are shown in Figure 1.
If the NPV of the project is <US$200m, or, if ACA elects not to retain a 75%
participating interest, then ORR has a right to increase its interest in the
project to 51% by making staged payments to ACA totalling US$15m.
Since acquiring the project, ORR has completed an update to the resource
estimate (moving from 43-101 to JORC compliant), and completed a Scoping
Study (Aug’16) which assessed the viability of a +200kozpa OP+UG project (see
“Scoping Study” below).
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Asset Overview: Nyanzaga Gold Project
Location & Project History
Nyanzaga is located in the Lake Victoria goldfields of NW Tanzania (Figure 15),
approximately 60km SW of the regional centre of Mwanza and 35km NE of ACA’s
+250kozpa Bulyanhulu gold mine. The region is well endowed, having historically
produced 20 Moz, with a further +45Moz in resources/reserves within 100km of
the project area. Notable deposits in the region including Geita (21Moz), Buzwagi
(+3Moz) and Resolute’s (RSG:ASX | Not rated) former Golden Pride mine which
produced 2.2Moz over a mine life of 15 years.
The project covers a total area of 299km2, and is well serviced by infrastructure,
including all weather roads, air-strips, grid power within 14km, and sufficient
ground/surface water. The local climate consists of two distinct “rainy” seasons –
the “masika” (long rains) from Mar-May, and the “mvuli” (short rains) from Nov-
Jan. Average daily temperatures range from 26-30deg Celsius.
Figure 15: Project location map
Source: Company Reports
Gold was first identified in the project area in the late 1930s, with modern
exploration first commencing in 1996. Various companies have undertaken
exploration within the project area since then, including Sub Sahara Resources,
Placer Dome and Barrick Gold (ABX:NYSE | Rated BUY by Tony Lesiak), prior to
Barrick’s divestment of its African assets into African Barrick Gold in 2010 (later
renamed Acacia Mining).
Over 237,000m (over 448 holes) of drilling have been completed on the deposit
by the various operators. A non-JORC Resource estimate was completed in 2013
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by African Barrick which estimated project resources of 4.19Moz at an average
grade of 1.3 g/t (using a 0.4 g/t cut off).
Geology, Resources & Reserves
The Nyanzaga project is located on the eastern flank of the Sukumaland Archean
greenstone belt, and is hosted within Nyanzian greenstone volcanic rocks and
sediments typical of the greenstone belts of Tanzania. The deposit itself is
considered an orogenic style gold deposit, occurring within a sequence of folded
sedimentary and volcanic rocks.
Gold mineralisation is interpreted to be hosted by iron-rich sediments in the form
of extensive stock work of carbonate, quartz veins and quartz carbonate breccias.
Distribution of gold mineralisation is related to dilatational zones associated with
sub vertical faulting, fracturing and brecciation along a northerly plunging anticline
(Figure 17).
Figure 16: Nyanzaga interpreted geology showing historical 43-101
Resource outline Figure 17: Nyanzaga X-section
Source: Company Reports Source: Company Reports
Mineral Resources
At the time of the ORR’s earn-in and JV agreement with ACA, the project hosted a
43-101 compliant Measured, Indicated and Inferred resource of 100Mt at 1.3 g/t
Au for 4.19 Moz (0.4 g/t cut off). African Barrick had assumed the deposit could
be mined by open pit techniques given the broad zones of mineralisation at or
near surface, with the resource estimate based on a pit optimised gold price of
US$1,500/oz.
ORR subsequently engaged independent consultants to complete a Mineral
Resource estimate (MRE) to comply with JORC 2012 guidelines, which was
completed in Mar’16. The revised estimate revealed a total Measured Indicated
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and Inferred resource of 21.3Mt at 4.1 g/t for 2.78Moz. Highlights from the
revision include:
an increase in the cut-off grade to 1.5 g/t,
83% of the overall resource in higher confidence Measured and Indicated
categories
0.172Moz at 3.5 g/t being identified in near surface (<80m) oxide and
transitional zones
Mineralisation extending to ~800m below surface, but remaining open at
depth
The change in cut-off grade and impact on tonnes/grade/contained ounces can
be seen in Figures 18 and 19 below.
Figure 18: Historical resources (contained ozs vs grade) Figure 19: Historical resources (tonnes vs cut-off grade)
Source: SNL Mining, Canaccord Genuity estimates Source: SNL Mining, Canaccord Genuity estimates
ORR completed an updated MRE in Aug’16, which, based on the inclusion of lower
grade material that had been excluded from the Mar’16 estimate, saw a 19%
increase in contained ounces to 3.34Moz at an average grade of 3.49 g/t (Figure
20).
The premise for the inclusion of the lower grade material was to support the
evaluation of an open pit progressing to an underground development scenario,
versus African Barrick’s previous large scale open pit approach. A combined
OP+UG operation was subsequently assessed in a Scoping study completed in
Aug’16.
Figure 20: Nyanzaga MRE – Aug’16 Figure 21: Nyanzaga Grade/Tonnage curve
Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates
-
0.500
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016*
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de (
g/t
Au
)
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z
Contained ozs Resource grade
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016*
Reso
urc
e c
ut
off
(g
/t A
u)
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes
Resource tonnes Cut off grade
@ 1.5 g/t cut off Mt Grade Moz
Nyanzaga
Measured 2.93 3.77 0.36
Indicated 21.77 3.45 2.41
Inferred 5.10 3.49 0.57
TOTAL 29.80 3.49 3.34
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Mt)
Cut off grade
Tonnes (RHS) Grade (LHS)
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Figure 22 below illustrates the deposit’s impressive vertical endowment with an
estimated 4,200ozpvm. We highlight that the reduction in ozpvm from 780mRL is
due to a lack of drilling density, supporting the potential for further growth in
resources through deeper/underground drilling.
Figure 22: Nyanzaga ounces per vertical metre Figure 23: Mineral Resource estimate model
Source: Company Reports Source: Company Reports
Scoping Study – Aug’16
ORR reported the outcomes of a Scoping Study for the development of Nyanzaga
in Aug’16. The study evaluated the potential to develop a 13-year open pit and
subsequent underground operation, with a 4Mtpa processing plant producing an
average 182kozpa over the LOM (average 220kozpa for the first 5 years) at AISC
of <US$900/oz.
The study was based on the MRE as detailed above, incorporating Measured,
Indicated (83%) and Inferred (17%) material, as well as a further 16Mt of
assumed mining inventory. Other key parameters are shown in Figure 24 below.
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Figure 24: Aug’16 Scoping Study – key project parameters
Source: Company Reports
Capital costs
The study estimated total establishment capital costs of US$248m, with a break-
down shown in Figure 25 below. We note that capex for the processing plant looks
low for a plant with a proposed capacity of 4Mtpa, especially compared to other
recent African gold developments (Figure 26). However, capital estimates have
been made according to Scoping Study accuracy levels (+/- 35%) with a relatively
generous contingency of US$43m also factored into the overall capital estimate.
Figure 25: Capital cost breakdown Figure 26: Capital intensity - African development projects
Source: Company Reports Source: Company Reports, SNL Mining, Canaccord Genuity estimates
Mining
The Scoping Study envisaged both open pit and underground mining at Nyanzaga,
with open pit mining currently planned to generate mineralised material
containing 1.4 Moz over the initial 5 years. The current schedule includes the
extraction and stockpiling of lower grade material which is proposed to be blended
with higher grade UG material later in the operations life.
The OP strip ratio has been estimated to vary from 1.5:1 to 3:1, with a LOM
average of 2.5:1. The final open pit depth is expected to be ~340mbs.
Parameter Unit Value Parameter Unit Value
Dvlpt period years 1.5 Upfront capex US$m 248
Mine Life years 13 UG capex US$m 18
Total Material Mined Mt 46.7 Sustaining capex US$m p.a. 7.7
Meas + Indicated % 83% UG dvplt capex US$m p.a. 16
Annual Througput Mtpa 17% OP Mining costs US$/t 3.4
OP Strip Ratio x 2.5:1 UG Mining costs US$/t 52
UG mining rate Mtpa 1.1 Processing costs US$/t 10.6
Avg OP Grade g/t Au 1.8* G&A US$/t 2.3
Avg UG Grade g/t Au 3.7 Royalty % 4%
Avg gold recovery % 85% Avg LOM AISC US$/oz $874
Avg gold prod'n kozpa 182
Parameter US$m %
Mine pre-strip & pre-prod'n 14 6%
Process plant 65 26%
Reagents & plant services 8 3%
Infrastructure 56 23%
Mine admin building 1 0%
Contractor & construciton 12 5%
Mgt costs 15 6%
Owner project costs 30 12%
General working cap 4 2%
Sub total 205 83%
Contingency 43 17%
TOTAL 248 100%
0.0
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3000.0
Esaa
se*
Ya
oure
*
Bo
mbore
*
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ka
Ba
oham
en
Hounde
*
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uka
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a
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Fekola
*
Nato
ugou
Ba
nfo
ra
Nya
nzaga
Capital In
tensity (
US
$/o
zpa)
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Figure 27: Conceptual OP design Figure 28: Conceptual UG mine design and infrastructure plan
Source: Company Reports Source: Company Reports
UG mining is was planned to commence in Year 4 of the project, with an overlap
with open pit mining of <2 years. Initial development capex for the underground is
estimated at US$18m, with first ore planned to be mined in year 4. The Scoping
Study also estimates annual lateral development capex to average US$16m p.a.
We currently expect all UG development and sustaining capital can be funded out
of cash flow from open pit operations.
The main mining method planned to be used in the underground mine will be
continuous retreat sub level open stoping with paste fill. Stoping will likely be
divided into panels up to 75m high (made up of three sub levels spaced 25m
apart), with each panel sequenced from the bottom up.
Figure 29: Typical stoping sequence
Source: Company Reports
Steady state production from the underground is expected to be ~1.1Mtpa, and is
not planned to exceed 1.3Mtpa. The Scoping Study used a nominal 10% for
mining dilution, resulting in a LOM underground mined grade of 3.7g/t gold at a
2g/t cut‐off grade.
The current resource extends to ~800m below surface, or ~460m below the
planned base of the open pit. We note that drilling has intersected mineralisation
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below the extents of the current mineral resource, and we highlight the potential
for further mineral resources to be defined. Drill testing however will most
efficiently be done from underground positions and therefore will be completed as
underground workings progress.
Processing
The processing plant has been initially designed based on early stage
metallurgical testwork indicating the Nyanzaga ore as being free milling. Hence a
conventional CIL circuit with addition of gravity concentration for coarse gold
recovery has been proposed as presented in Figure 30 below.
Single stage crushing via gyratory crusher along with live stockpile and dead
stockpile capacity
SABC circuit featuring SAG Mill in closed circuit with pebble crusher and single
ball mill to achieve a grind size (P80) of 106 µm at a 4Mtpa run rate.
Gravity circuit to recover coarse gold (proportion yet to be determined).
Leach recovery through a conventional CIL circuit for overall recoveries of
85%.
A Cyanide/SO2 destruction circuit precedes a tailings storage facility with
further test work to determine the suitability for paste fill within future UG
operations.
The flow sheet will be optimised to a DFS standard (+/-10% design accuracy) as
part of the PFS due in Q4’17. This will largely be determined by further testwork
targeting improved gold recoveries through optimisation of comminution, gravity
gold, leach and elution circuits. We see outcomes here as a key area which could
improve project economics versus those outlined in the Scoping Study.
Figure 30: Metallurgical flowsheet
Source: Company Reports
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Production & Operating costs
Figure 31 illustrates our modelled mill feed and grade assumptions, based on the
mining schedules (OP+UG) presented in ORR’s Scoping Study. Note the impact of
the commencement of UG operations on the average grade, which as shown in
Figure 32, has a material impact on gold production. We estimate average annual
gold production of 220kozpa over the first five years of the project, with an
average over the modelled 13 year mine life of 183kozpa.
Based on the unit cost inputs outlined in the scoping study (+10%), we estimate
average annual AISC of US$860/oz. Higher AISC in Years 3-4 are attributable to
peak open pit material movements and stockpile build.
Figure 31: Ore sources and average mill feed grades Figure 32: CGe annual gold production and AISC
Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates
Project Timetable
ORR’s most recently published development timeline on the project is targeting
completion of a PFS in the 2H 2017 and a DFS by end 2018. In our view, the high
level of detail outlined in the Scoping Study provides a solid foundation for the
PFS and DFS. We note that the Scoping Study was delivered almost 6 months
ahead of the original schedule and we remain confident in ORR continuing to
shave additional time off the schedule as studies progress. This could see 6-12
months saved on the ultimate delivery of the DFS, in our view.
In consideration of the above, our modelled project timetable assumes
commencement of construction in MarQ18, and first production in mid’19 based
on a 15-18 month construction period.
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z)
Gold production AISC
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Figure 33: Key technical & permitting timeline
Source: Company Reports
Nyanazaga – regional exploration
ORR’s initial focus from a regional exploration standpoint is expected to be placed
on the potential to add shallow high grade ounces proximal to Nyanzaga to
supplement baseload feed in the earlier years, potentially enhancing project
payback period and IRR. This program will commence with four regional priority
prospects (see Figure 34), some with significant drill intercepts.
In addition, there are 13 largely untested, lower priority targets within 10km of the
Nyanzaga Deposit.
Kasubuya
Located ~12km from Nyanzaga, comprises a group of gold-in-soil anomalies.
Targets have historically been tested with DD, RC, AC & RAB drilling (157 holes,
10k m). Ore grade intercepts include: 3m @ 9.17 g/t Au from 9m, 12m @ 3.24 g/t
Au from 0m, and 4m @ 6.01 g/t Au from 22m
Ifugandi
Located ~9.5km from the Nyanzaga, comprises a group of gold-in-soil anomalies
with prior work including drilling and trenching. Historical ore grade drilling results
include 22m @ 3.38 g/t Au from 27m and 8m @ 3.85 g/t Au from 30m
Nyanzaga South
Located ~2km to the SW of Nyanzaga, comprise a single 2km x 0.2km gold‐in‐soil
anomaly, with 10,700m of historical drilling completed. The best DD drilling
intercepts include 9m @ 2.21 g/t Au from 86m and 3m @ 2.70 g/t Au from 71m
Bululu
An early stage prospect located 5.5km from Nyanzaga. Bululu comprises a single
1km x 0.4km coincident gold and arsenic soil anomaly, with first‐pass DD drill
testing (6 holes, 1,366m) returning intercepts including 6m @ 2.19 g/t Au from
21m
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Figure 34: Regional exploration prospects
Source: Company Reports
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Asset Overview: Akjoujt South Ni-Cu Project
Location & Background
ORR has a 90% interest in the Akjoujt South Nickel-Copper project, located in
Western Mauritania, ~200km NE of the capital Nouakchott, and ~200km SE of
Kinross’ (K:TSX | Rated BUY by Tony Lesiak) 300kozpa Tasiast operation. The
project comprises two granted licences covering 460km2 and one licence
application covering 136km2.
Figure 35: Project location Map
Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates
Geology & Recent Exploration
The licences cover prospective geological structures and lithology which have the
potential to host both sulphide nickel-copper type deposits and structurally
controlled gold, iron oxide copper gold (IOCG), similar to First Quantum’s (FM-TSE
| Not rated) Guelb Moghrein copper-gold mine located 30km to the north
Work to date has concentrated on the Anomaly 5 prospect, where an initial
regional soil sampling program generated anomalous soil samples of 0.26% Ni
and 0.23% Cu. The anomalism is interpreted to be associated with a circular
intrusive body and alteration assemblage (Figure 36). Subsequent mapping, infill
sampling and trenching has defined a zone of geochemical anomalism
approximately ~1.5km long. Trenching across the anomalism intersected
mineralised intervals of up to 160m in width at 0.24% Ni and 0.21% Cu (Figure
37). A ground magnetic survey covering both Anomaly 5 and Trench 9 was also
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completed, and highlighted a coincident anomaly over the better zones of
sulphide mineralisation at Anomaly 5. The survey also identified two other areas
of ground magnetic anomalism that will require further follow-up.
Figure 36: Project location Figure 37: Initial trenching results across Anomaly 5 and Trench 9
prospects
Source: Company Reports Source: Company Reports
ORR recently completed six reconnaissance diamond drill holes (JunQ’16) to
follow up the encouraging surface sampling, with nickel-copper sulphide
mineralisation identified in four of the holes. Drill intercepts were reported up to
31m, with peak nickel and copper values of 1.34% and 1.29%, respectively.
Mineralisation has been encountered over a total of 1km strike length, comprising
a series of sub-parallel gossan/sulphide zones individually up to 350m in strike
length. Highlights from the initial program are outlined below:
ASPDD002 31m at 0.31% Ni and 0.21% Cu from 11m; and 9m at 0.21% Ni
and 0.10% Cu from 94m
ASPDD003 13m at 0.35% Ni and 0.24% Cu from 2m; and 15m at 0.58% Ni
and 0.40% Cu from 19m (incl. 3m at 1.28% Ni and 0.29% Cu from 29m)
ASPDD004 16.7m at 0.40% Ni and 0.22% Cu from 16.3m (incl. 1m at 1.05%
Ni and 0.23% Cu from 31m)
ASPDD005 4.7m at 0.39% Ni and 0.20% Cu from 116.8m (incl. 0.70m at
1.00% Ni and 0.15% Cu from 116.8m)
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Figure 38: Drill hole location plan Figure 39: Cross section
Source: Company Reports Source: Company Reports
Mineralisation is hosted within disseminated and semi massive to massive
sulphide breccia zones associated with altered gabbro, mafic and orthogneiss
country rock. The mineralisation comprises breccia and disseminated textured
pyrrhotite (dominant), pentlandite and chalcopyrite primary mineralisation, with
overlying gossan development and secondary nickel sulphide violarite.
Petrological analysis completed indicates that the mineralisation and alteration
assemblages identified to date are parts of a magmatic nickel-copper mineralised
system.
We see the initial results as encouraging and form a valid basis for further work
targeting ore-grade mineralisation. Follow-up activities are planned to include
ground magnetics, ground EM, regional surface geochemistry and mapping which
will be utilised to enhance the understanding and refine the targeting at the
prospect.
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Appendix 1: Tanzania Country Info
Location: Eastern Africa within the African great Lakes
region. It is bordered to the north by Kenya and
Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and DRC to the West,
and Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique to the
South.
Capital: Dodoma
Area: 947,303km2
Population: 51.8m (2014)
Official language: Swahili, English
Government: Presidential constitutional republic (President:
John Pombe Magufuli, elected 2015)
Religion: Islam (~35%), Christianity (~30%)
Figure 40: Tanzania country map
Source: Countriesonline.com
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Mining in Tanzania - Overview
Tanzania has a long history of gold mining with the industry government owned
and controlled until a revision of mining laws during the 1990s enabled foreign
companies to begin large scale development. The Mineral Act of 1998 was
revised with the 2010 Mineral Act, with key features including:
The government may acquire a free carried interest and paid up equity
Mineral royalties are charged on the Gross Value with rates varying according
to commodity. Gold/silver – 4%, Uranium – 5%, gemstones – 1%, industrial
minerals – 3%
Relief from VAT; 30% corporate income tax
Holder of Special Mining Licences (for investments exceeding US$100 million)
may enter into MDA with the Government. MDAs are subject to review after
every five years and at the renewal of the mineral right.
Tanzania is the fourth largest gold miner in Africa behind South Africa, Mali and
Ghana, accounting for ~3% of 2015 global production. As Figure 41 below
indicates, gold operations in Tanzania, and more specifically the Lake Victoria gold
belt, are amongst the largest in Africa with three projects in the region
demonstrating production scale above ~250koz.
Figure 41: African gold mines – light blue denotes Tanzanian operation (Nyanzaga is indicative
production potential based on recent project Scoping Studies)
Source: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates
0
200,000
400,000
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Appendix 2: Investment Risks
Funding
As a pre-production company with no material income, ORR is reliant on equity and
debt markets to fund development of its assets and progressing its regional
exploration pipeline. Total development and working capital requirements are subject
to completion of feasibility studies, and in relation to Nyanzaga, the intentions of
ORR’s project partner in ACA. There is no guarantee that studies will result in a
positive investment decision for the Nyanzaga project. Further, we can make no
assurances that accessing these markets will be done without further dilution to
shareholders.
Exploration risks
Exploration is subject to a number of risks and can require a high rate of capital
expenditure. Risks can also be associated with conversion of inferred resources and
lack of accuracy in the interpretation of geochemical, geophysical, drilling and other
data. No assurances can be given that exploration will delineate further minable
reserves.
Operating risks
If and when in production, the company will be subject to risks such as
plant/equipment breakdowns, metallurgical (meeting design recoveries within a
complex flowsheet), materials handling and other technical issues. An increase in
operating costs could reduce the profitability and free cash generation from the
operating assets considerably and negatively impact valuation. Further, the actual
characteristics of an ore deposit may differ significantly from initial interpretations
which can also materially impact forecast production from original expectations.
Commodity price and currency fluctuations
As with any mining company, ORR is directly exposed to commodity price and currency
fluctuations. Commodity price fluctuations are driven by many macroeconomic forces
including inflationary pressures, interest rates and supply and demand factors. These
factors could reduce the profitability, costing and prospective outlook for the business.
Figure 42: Valuation sensitivity to gold price and FX movements
Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates
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Appendix: Important DisclosuresAnalyst CertificationEach authoring analyst of Canaccord Genuity whose name appears on the front page of this research hereby certifies that (i) therecommendations and opinions expressed in this research accurately reflect the authoring analyst’s personal, independent andobjective views about any and all of the designated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoringanalyst’s coverage universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the research.Analysts employed outside the US are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons ofCanaccord Genuity Inc. and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communicationswith a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.Sector CoverageIndividuals identified as “Sector Coverage” cover a subject company’s industry in the identified jurisdiction, but are not authoringanalysts of the report.
Investment RecommendationDate and time of first dissemination: September 04, 2016, 16:30 ETDate and time of production: September 04, 2016, 15:23 ETTarget Price / Valuation Methodology:OreCorp Limited - ORRWe value ORR using a sum of the parts (net asset valuation) approach, comprising our probability weighted valuation for ORR’s interestin the Nyanzaga gold project (see below), a nominal value ascribed to the company’s Akjoujt South Cu-Ni exploration project, net ofcorporate and other adjustments.Risks to achieving Target Price / Valuation:OreCorp Limited - ORRInvestment Risks
FundingAs a pre-production Company with no material income, ORR is reliant on equity and debt markets to fund development of its assets andprogressing its regional exploration pipeline. Total development and working capital requirements are subject to completion of feasibilitystudies, and in relation to Nyanzaga, the intentions of ORR’s project partner in ACA. There is no guarantee that studies will result in apositive investment decision for the Nyanzaga project. Further, we can make no assurances that accessing these markets will be donewithout further dilution to shareholders.
Exploration risksExploration is subject to a number of risks and can require a high rate of capital expenditure. Risks can also be associated withconversion of inferred resources and lack of accuracy in the interpretation of geochemical, geophysical, drilling and other data. Noassurances can be given that exploration will delineate further minable reserves.Operating risksIf and when in production, the company will be subject to risks such as plant/equipment breakdowns, metallurgical (meeting designrecoveries within a complex flowsheet), materials handling and other technical issues. An increase in operating costs could reducethe profitability and free cash generation from the operating assets considerably and negatively impact valuation. Further, the actualcharacteristics of an ore deposit may differ significantly from initial interpretations which can also materially impact forecast productionfrom original expectations.
Commodity price and currency fluctuationsAs with any mining company, ORR is directly exposed to commodity price and currency fluctuations. Commodity price fluctuations aredriven by many macroeconomic forces including inflationary pressures, interest rates and supply and demand factors. These factorscould reduce the profitability, costing and prospective outlook for the business.
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Distribution of Ratings:Global Stock Ratings (as of 09/04/16)Rating Coverage Universe IB Clients
# % %Buy 548 59.76% 34.12%Hold 286 31.19% 19.23%Sell 22 2.40% 18.18%Speculative Buy 61 6.65% 73.77%
917* 100.0%*Total includes stocks that are Under Review
Canaccord Genuity Ratings SystemBUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.
HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.
SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer.“Risk-adjusted return” refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the designated investment or therelevant issuer.Risk QualifierSPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria. Investments in thestock may result in material loss.
12-Month Recommendation History (as of date same as the Global Stock Ratings table)A list of all the recommendations on any issuer under coverage that was disseminated during the preceding 12-month periodmay be obtained at the following website (provided as a hyperlink if this report is being read electronically) http://disclosures-mar.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx
Required Company-Specific Disclosures (as of date of this publication)Canaccord Genuity or one or more of its affiliated companies intend to seek or expect to receive compensation for Investment Bankingservices from OreCorp Limited in the next three months.
Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016
0.800.700.600.500.400.300.200.100.00
OreCorp Limited Rating History as of 09/01/2016
Closing Price Target Price
Buy (B); Speculative Buy (SB); Sell (S); Hold (H); Suspended (SU); Under Review (UR); Restricted (RE); Not Rated (NR)
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