nyu international hospitality industry investment conference...2014/06/02 · los angeles -long...
TRANSCRIPT
NYU International Hospitality Industry
Investment Conference
Amanda W. Hite STR
President & COO
Supply
Middle East Leads in Development
2.5
1.0
5.9
1.2
3.8
1.1
0
2
4
6
Central- SouthAmerica
Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia &Oceania
Supply % Change, April 2014 YTD
Supply Growth Creeps Up
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Total U.S., Supply % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 4/2014
U.S. Pipeline: Construction Accelerates
Phase 2014 2013 % Change
In Construction 103 72 42.6%
Final Planning 130 101 29.3%
Planning 150 157 -4.8%
Under Contract 383 330 16%
Total U.S. Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, April 2014 and 2013
Under Construction Rooms Mostly In Middle Segments
4.4 8.6
38.9
31.3
5.3
0.9
14.0
Luxury UpperUpscale
Upscale UpperMidscale
Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
U.S. Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, April 2014
68%
10 of Top 26 Markets With 2%+ Of Supply
U.S. Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, March 2014
Market Rooms UC % Of Existing
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 1,167 2.2%
Dallas, TX 1,785 2.3%
Washington, DC-MD-VA 2,500 2.3%
Boston, MA 1,250 2.4%
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 2,971 3.1%
Houston, TX 3,259 4.3%
Seattle, WA 1,889 4.6%
Denver, CO 1,981 4.8%
Miami-Hialeah, FL 2,442 5.0%
New York, NY 13,230 12.0%
Total United States Supply Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year), 2014 - 2015
U.S. Supply Outlook
2014 2015 1.2% 1.6%
Demand
Middle East Leads Demand Growth
1.5
3.5
9.9
-2.3
4.3 3.7
-5
-2
1
4
7
10
Central- SouthAmerica
Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia &Oceania
Demand % Change, April 2014 YTD
U.S., Room Demand % Change, 12 Month Moving Average: 89 to March 14
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2009 2011 2013
Feb ’11 7.7%
Sept ’09 -7.1%
Demand Growth is Steady
Apr ‘14 2.5%
U.S. Chain Scales, Demand % Change, Twelve Months Ended April 2014
1.4
2.8
4.9
2.3 2.5
1.6
-2
0
2
4
6
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale UpperMidscale
Midscale Economy
Upscale Leads Demand Growth
Transient Occupancy Share Increases
43% 57%
2005
Group
Transient
36%
64%
2013
Group
Transient
*Transient and Group Occupancy as Share of Total OCC, 2005 and 2013
Occupancy Segmentation by Class: Groups Finally Returning?
1.1
2.7
1.5 1.4
Luxury Upper Upscale
Transient % Change Group % Change
*Segmentation Occupancy % Change, by Class, April 2014 YTD
Total United States Demand & Occupancy Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2014 - 2015
U.S. Demand Outlook
2014 2015 Demand 2.6% 2.2% Occupancy 1.4% 0.6%
Average Daily Rate
Select Global Regions ADR Percent Change (In US Dollars except Europe in Euros), April 2014 YTD
-3.9
1.9 3.0
-1.4 -2.0
-8.3
Middle East Leads in Rate Growth
Steady ADR Growth As Room Demand Growth Continues
-10
-5
0
5
2008
Demand % ChangeADR % Change
-4.5%
3.7%
Total U.S., ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/2008 – 4/2014
Scales: ADR Growth Healthy, Especially For Luxury
4.9
4.2 4.0
3.2 3.3
3.9
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Total U.S. Chain Scales: ADR % Change, April 2014 YTD
Total United States Actual ADR ($) by Customer Segment, YTD 2010- April 2014
$165.88
$159.93
$175.84
$163.63
$183.93
$169.19
$193.45
$175.76
$203.19
$180.33
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
Transient Group
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NOTE: Data is for luxury and upper upscale classes only.
Strong Transient Room Rate Growth
April 2014 YTD ADR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing Markets
Market ADR $ ADR % Change Nashville, TN 113.22 13.2
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 187.54 10.3 Denver, CO 105.78 7.8
Miami/Hialeah, FL 227.68 6.7 Boston, MA 156.51 6.2
New York, NY 227.39 1.6 Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 74.16 0.7
New Orleans, LA 160.22 0.1 Chicago, IL 112.11 -0.4
Washington, DC-MD-VA 146.29 -4.3
Total United States ADR Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2014 - 2015
U.S. ADR Outlook
2014 2015 4.2% 4.3%
RevPAR
RevPAR growth in 3 of the four regions
April 2014 YTD, RevPAR % Change in USD, Europe in Euro
- 2.8%
+ 6.1%
+ 5.3%
+ 4.4%€
Positive RevPAR Growth For The Foreseeable Future
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1990 2000 2010
-16.8%
-2.6%
-10.1%
9% 8.6%
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 4/2014
65 Months 44 Mo. 112 Months
April 2014 YTD RevPAR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing Markets
Market RevPAR % Change Nashville, TN 20.3 Denver, CO 20.1
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 14.2 St. Louis, MO-IL 13.6
Dallas, TX 12.1
Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 2.5 New Orleans, LA 0.8
Chicago, IL 0.1 New York, NY 0.0
Washington, DC-MD-VA -4.3
2014 – 2015 Source: STR & TE
Outlook
2014 Forecast
2015 Forecast
Supply 1.2% 1.6%
Demand 2.6% 2.2%
Occupancy 1.4% 0.6%
ADR 4.2% 4.3%
RevPAR 5.7% 4.9%
U.S. Forecast Summary
Total U.S., Estimated Total Revenue and Profitability* 2008 – 2013
146.0
125.5 133.4
146.5 154.8
163.0
36.7 24.5 28.2
33.9 37.2 41.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
In B
illio
ns
Revenue Net Income
*Representing all U.S. hotels that collectively provide room revenue data to STR. Net Income defined as House Profit less management fees, property taxes, insurance, and an imputed 4.0% reserve for replacement expense.
New Peaks Reached in 2013
Key Takeaways • Industry is Profitable
• Supply Growth Accelerates
• First Quarter Demand Stronger than Expected • Group Demand: Finally Some Growth
• STR Forecast: Positive, Robust Growth
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