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James S. TulenkoJames S. TulenkoProfessor, University of FloridaProfessor, University of Florida

Director, Laboratory for Development of Director, Laboratory for Development of Advanced Fuels and MaterialsAdvanced Fuels and Materials

President, ANSPresident, ANS

ANS Chapter, RaleighANS Chapter, RaleighEastern Carolinas SectionEastern Carolinas Section

Thursday, Dec. 2, 2004Thursday, Dec. 2, 2004

Nuclear Energy and the Nuclear Energy and the EnvironmentEnvironment

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The American Nuclear SocietyThe American Nuclear Society

The Society for the The Society for the Advancement of Nuclear Advancement of Nuclear

Science and Technology Science and Technology to Benefit Humanityto Benefit Humanity

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• Founded Dec., 1954 at the National Founded Dec., 1954 at the National Academy of Sciences in D.C.Academy of Sciences in D.C.

• Founded as non-profit, international, Founded as non-profit, international, scientific and educational organization.scientific and educational organization.

• Integrates all disciplines of nuclear Integrates all disciplines of nuclear science and technology.science and technology.

The American Nuclear SocietyThe American Nuclear Society

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The American Nuclear SocietyThe American Nuclear Society

11,000 individual members11,000 individual members• 800 (7%) outside the United States800 (7%) outside the United States• 47 countries represented47 countries represented• 8% under 35; 15% over 668% under 35; 15% over 66• ~700 with less than 5 years experience~700 with less than 5 years experience• Under 35 group increased by ~40% Under 35 group increased by ~40%

from 1999 to todayfrom 1999 to today

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ANS GoalsANS Goals• To be the recognized leader for the advancement To be the recognized leader for the advancement

of nuclear science and technology.of nuclear science and technology.• To be members’ primary resource for To be members’ primary resource for

professional development and knowledge professional development and knowledge exchange.exchange.

• To be publicly recognized as a credible source of To be publicly recognized as a credible source of nuclear science and technology information.nuclear science and technology information.

• To be an active contributor to, and participant To be an active contributor to, and participant in, nuclear science and technology issues.in, nuclear science and technology issues.

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Membership:Membership:

MembershipMembership 14,96914,969 10,59010,590 9,6639,663

StudentsStudents 1,5721,572 694694 1,1101,110

TotalTotal 16,54116,541 11,28411,284 10,77310,773

American Nuclear SocietyAmerican Nuclear Society

1993 1998 2003

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ANS on the MoveANS on the Move

• Golden Anniversary: 1954-2004Golden Anniversary: 1954-2004• Membership has increased for the Membership has increased for the

first time in many years.first time in many years.• Bottom Line: ANS is Growing Bottom Line: ANS is Growing

after years of decline.after years of decline.

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Abundant EnergyAbundant Energy

• Is the daily bread of Is the daily bread of civilizationcivilization

• Drives the economyDrives the economy• Drives the quality of lifeDrives the quality of life• Frees man to be creativeFrees man to be creative

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Let There Be LightLet There Be Light

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Nuclear Energy – A Key Player Nuclear Energy – A Key Player In The U.S. Energy MixIn The U.S. Energy Mix

• Nuclear industry more efficient with improved Nuclear industry more efficient with improved economic competitiveness. Now 20% of electricity in economic competitiveness. Now 20% of electricity in U.S.U.S.

• Advanced designs will be much safer and cheaper, fuel Advanced designs will be much safer and cheaper, fuel meltdowns impossible.meltdowns impossible.

• Growing public awareness of the environmental Growing public awareness of the environmental benefits of nuclear.benefits of nuclear.

• Public approval is growing – now at 65%; 85% for Public approval is growing – now at 65%; 85% for technically educated college grads.technically educated college grads.

• The future of nuclear energy is very bright.The future of nuclear energy is very bright.

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Dramatic Increase in OutputDramatic Increase in Output

790,000790,000

576,862576,862

640,440640,440

673,702673,702

727,915727,915

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

1990 1994 1998 1999 2000 2005

Equal to 23 new 1,000-MW plants

Equal to 4 new 1,000-MW plants

753,90753,9000

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Nuclear Costs are at an All-Time LowNuclear Costs are at an All-Time Low(in constant 2001 cents/kWh)(in constant 2001 cents/kWh)

0123456789

1011

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01

Nuclear 1.68 Coal 1.80 Gas 6.08 Oil 4.93

Source: RDI /EUCG for Nuclear data, RDI/EUCG for Fossil Fuels. Converted to 2001 dollars by NEI

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NUCLEAR POWER FACTSNUCLEAR POWER FACTS

Worldwide:Worldwide:(36 Countries)(36 Countries)

441 Reactors, 2574 terawatt hours 31 Reactors under construction

(several more ordered) 17% of world’s electricity

North North America:America:

118 Reactors, 118 Gigawatts (103 in U.S. = 20% of electricity 15 in Canada = 12% of electricity)

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Electricity Price, 1970-2025Electricity Price, 1970-2025(2001 cents/kilowatt hour)(2001 cents/kilowatt hour)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025012345678

910

History Projections

AEO2003

AEO2002

1970 2025Average nominal price

1.7

12.1

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Nuclear Capacity Factors:Nuclear Capacity Factors:All-Time HighAll-Time High

91.9

556065707580859095

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02Year

Cap

acity

Fac

tor (

%)

Source: Platts World Nuclear Performance, February 2003

79.5% in 199886.8% in 199989.6% in 200090.7% in 200191.9% in 2002

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Growth In Electric Demand Growth In Electric Demand for Developing Countriesfor Developing Countries

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Factors Motivating Use Of Factors Motivating Use Of Nuclear Power In ChinaNuclear Power In China

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Top 10 Nuclear CountriesTop 10 Nuclear Countries(1999 Generation)(1999 Generation)

727.9

375306.9

160.4110.9 97.8 91.2 70.4 70.1 67.4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

US France Japan Germany Russia Korea RP UK Canada Sweden Ukraine

billi

on k

ilow

att-h

ours

Measured by generation, U.S. Measured by generation, U.S. nuclear program is:nuclear program is: as large as France and Japan (#2 as large as France and Japan (#2 and #3) and #3) combined; andcombined; and larger than the other 7 nations in larger than the other 7 nations in

the top 10 combinedthe top 10 combined

Source: IAEA

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World Energy ConsumptionWorld Energy Consumption1970-20251970-2025

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How Do We Get Our EnergyHow Do We Get Our Energy

• CoalCoal• GasGas• OilOil• NuclearNuclear• HydroHydro

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Energy Output From Energy Output From Various FuelsVarious Fuels

TYPE FUEL (1kg)TYPE FUEL (1kg)

FIREWOODFIREWOOD

COALCOAL

OILOIL

URANIUMURANIUM

ELECTRICITY PRODUCED (kw-hr)ELECTRICITY PRODUCED (kw-hr)

11

33

44

400,000 (once-through)400,000 (once-through)

7,000,000 (re-cycled U and Pu)7,000,000 (re-cycled U and Pu)

(Ref: IAEA Bulletin, Vol. 42, No. 2, 2000)

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World Energy Consumption by FuelWorld Energy Consumption by Fuel1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)

1970 1980 1990 2001 2010 20250

100

200

300

400

500

600

700History Projections

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

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World Oil Trade: World Oil Trade: 1973, 2001 and projected 20251973, 2001 and projected 2025

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China Oil DemandChina Oil Demand

• China's oil imports leaped by 40 per cent in the China's oil imports leaped by 40 per cent in the first half of this year. It recently surpassed first half of this year. It recently surpassed Japan to become the world's second-biggest Japan to become the world's second-biggest oil importer. Its own oil production, once large oil importer. Its own oil production, once large enough to supply its needs, has fallen into enough to supply its needs, has fallen into steady decline. By the year 2020, China expects steady decline. By the year 2020, China expects to depend on imported oil for 60 per cent of its to depend on imported oil for 60 per cent of its oil supply, up from 36 per cent today, leaving it oil supply, up from 36 per cent today, leaving it increasingly vulnerable to an oil embargo or an increasingly vulnerable to an oil embargo or an unexpected cutoff of supplyunexpected cutoff of supply....

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China Oil DemandChina Oil Demand

• The Chinese government has reportedly The Chinese government has reportedly drafted a plan to build a 90-day strategic drafted a plan to build a 90-day strategic reserve of crude oil -- much bigger than its reserve of crude oil -- much bigger than its previous plan for a 30-day stockpile. It is previous plan for a 30-day stockpile. It is already building 52 massive tanks near the East already building 52 massive tanks near the East China Sea, south of Shanghai, to stockpile a China Sea, south of Shanghai, to stockpile a month's worth of oil. Each tank would hold month's worth of oil. Each tank would hold more than 25 million gallons.more than 25 million gallons.

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World Oil Reserves by CountryWorld Oil Reserves by CountryJanuary 1, 2003January 1, 2003

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World Crude Oil ProductionWorld Crude Oil Production

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World Carbon Emissions World Carbon Emissions by Fossil Fuel 1970-2025by Fossil Fuel 1970-2025

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Carbon Dioxide ConcentrationsCarbon Dioxide Concentrations

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The Earth’s Surface is WarmingThe Earth’s Surface is Warming

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The Earth’s Climate is ChangingThe Earth’s Climate is Changing

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Sea Level Rise Due to Global WarmingSea Level Rise Due to Global Warming

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Emissions AvoidedEmissions AvoidedBy U.S. Nuclear Power PlantsBy U.S. Nuclear Power Plants

1973 - 20021973 - 2002NONOXX

40 million tons40 million tons

SOSO22

80 million tons80 million tons

CarbonCarbon3 billion tons3 billion tons

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COCO22 Emissions Fell 2/3 as a Result of Emissions Fell 2/3 as a Result of French Nuclear ProgramFrench Nuclear Program

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Challenges Facing NuclearChallenges Facing Nuclear• Lower capital cost, and shorter construction Lower capital cost, and shorter construction

time needed.time needed.• Get on with the waste disposal solution, Get on with the waste disposal solution,

including recycling spent fuel.including recycling spent fuel.• Government paid insurance – Price Anderson.Government paid insurance – Price Anderson.• Lower proliferation threat for worldwide Lower proliferation threat for worldwide

deployment.deployment.• Gov’t support next generation of reactors.Gov’t support next generation of reactors.• Assure adequate trained manpower supply.Assure adequate trained manpower supply.

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Actions to Address ChallengesActions to Address Challenges• Address security (proliferation) risk of nuclear Address security (proliferation) risk of nuclear

materials without significantly impacting beneficial materials without significantly impacting beneficial use.use.

• Proceed with Yucca Mtn. repository and Advanced Proceed with Yucca Mtn. repository and Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative to address nuclear waste.Fuel Cycle Initiative to address nuclear waste.

• Address public fear of nuclear with scientific facts Address public fear of nuclear with scientific facts and grassroots personnel involvement.and grassroots personnel involvement.

• Develop program to address dwindling nuclear Develop program to address dwindling nuclear professionals and ANS membership.professionals and ANS membership.

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DO

E In

vest

men

t ($

in M

illio

ns)

02468

101214161820

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Num

ber of Students

UndergraduateStudent

Enrollment

Trends In EnrollmentTrends In Enrollment

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Grassroots InitiativeGrassroots Initiative

• Address public fears with Address public fears with scientific facts and by ANS scientific facts and by ANS members getting involved in members getting involved in local events, with local local events, with local media, and Representatives.media, and Representatives.

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Top Challenges for Next GenerationTop Challenges for Next Generation

• Continue professional development / Be Active!Continue professional development / Be Active!• Maintain the Safety Culture.Maintain the Safety Culture.• Engage local Legislators - Civics 101: Influence Engage local Legislators - Civics 101: Influence

the energy awareness of your Representative. the energy awareness of your Representative. • Deal with public opinion; changing the “Nuclear Deal with public opinion; changing the “Nuclear

Perception.”Perception.”• Bring reality into discussions of alternate energy.Bring reality into discussions of alternate energy.• Make a difference with your life & your career.Make a difference with your life & your career.

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SUMMARYSUMMARY• Nuclear produces 17 to 20% of electricity Nuclear produces 17 to 20% of electricity globally and in U.S. That percentage will grow.globally and in U.S. That percentage will grow.

• New plants will be ordered in U.S. within 5 yrs.New plants will be ordered in U.S. within 5 yrs.• Nuclear is already cleaner and safer than oil, Nuclear is already cleaner and safer than oil, gas, and coal, and has lower operating cost.gas, and coal, and has lower operating cost.

• Worldwide growth of elec. production will need Worldwide growth of elec. production will need nuclear to control environmental damage.nuclear to control environmental damage.

• Capital cost will fall to $1,000/megawatt, or Capital cost will fall to $1,000/megawatt, or lower, in new reactor designs. lower, in new reactor designs.

• Spent fuel (waste) and nuclear weapons Spent fuel (waste) and nuclear weapons proliferation are solvable political problems.proliferation are solvable political problems.

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The FutureThe Future““In science, credit In science, credit goes to the man who goes to the man who convinces the world, convinces the world, not the man to whom not the man to whom the idea first occurs.” the idea first occurs.” Charles Darwin

-Hopefully, Dr. James Lovelock will convince the World