november 6, 2019 legislation & application trends ... · oil category introduction year...
TRANSCRIPT
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Legislation & Application Trends Impacting Africa Base Oil Requirements
November 6, 2019
The 8th African Base Oils & Lubricants Conference
Rakesh Vyas - Market Development Advisor
Najib Aragrag - Technical Advisor
ExxonMobil Basestocks & Specialties
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SOURCE: EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY
Africa growth outpaces rest of the world
Global - Indexed to 2017
+1.6 billionpeople
+71 trillionGDP
+20%energy demand
2017 2040
Africa Indexed to 2017
2017 2040
+850 millionpeople
+3.5 trillionGDP
+70%energy demand
Imported used vehicles will bridge the car ownership gap
Light Duty
Aviation
Heavy Duty
Marine
Rail
Transportation Demand
MBDOE
2000 2020 2040
• Increased motorization rates
• Auto lube demand to rise
• Growing used vehicle imports
• Increased legislation to control quality of imported used vehicles
SOURCE: EXXONMOBIL 2019 OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY
Mixed import legislation driving mixed fleet by age
4
13 Countries have bans on used vehicle imports (age caps ranging between 6-12 years**)
Countries ban used vehicle imports completely*
10 Countries have bans on used vehicle imports (age caps ranging between 3-5 years**)
* Egypt allows used electric vehicle imports. Algeria allows non-individual importers
** Or have high taxation/penalties
Map is approximate depiction only
27 Countries have no regulation in place
Used Vehicle Import legislation will impact a countries ability to meet their emission standard commitments
SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS USED VEHICLES REPORT 2017
Algeria
Libya
Algeria
Libya
Africa is rapidly progressing towards cleaner fuel SOURCE: EXXONMOBIL ASSESSMENT OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2000 ppm 500 ppm 350 ppm 50 ppm 10 ppmDiesel Fuel
Sulfur Limit
Euro I
Euro I
AFRICA
EUROPE
Euro II
Euro II
Euro III
Euro III Euro IV Euro V Euro VI
<10 ppm
Euro VII
Euro IV/ V
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2000 ppm 500 ppm 350 ppm 50 ppm 10 ppmFuel SulfurLimit
Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Euro VI<10 ppm
Euro VII
API CF-4API CG-4
API CH-4API CI-4
API CJ-4API CK-4/ FA-4
API SHAPI SJ
API SLAPI SM
API SN/ SN Plus
The oil categories in Africa are evolvingSOURCE: EXXONMOBIL ASSESSMENT OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION
Oil category introduction year
Backward compatible
Oil categories in Africa
Africa still use monograde oils, multigrades are quickly growingSOURCE: EXXONMOBIL ASSESSMENT OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION
PCEO HDEO
South Africa – Industrial makes up 45% lube demand driving Group I use
Nigeria – Generator powered economy driving monograde use
Egypt & Algeria – High Sulphur fuel & old car park driving monograde use
Africa technical requirements are met by Group I & II
LN Capability
Solvency
HN Capability
Ox. Stability
Volatility
Low Temp
GP IGP II
SOURCE: EXXONMOBIL ASSESSMENT OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION
Group I growing in Africa while group II gaining ground
SOURCE: EXXONMOBIL ASSESSMENT OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION
Africa DemandGlobal (excl. Africa) Demand
Gr I
Gr I-IV
CORE™ Group I
EHC™ Group II
BaytownBaton Rouge
Rotterdam GravenchonFawleyAugusta (*)
Singapore(Jurong, PAC)Wakayama (*)
25 supply locations worldwide
8 manufacturing sites, 5 distributors, 12 terminals
(*) Not ExxonMobil owned; multi-year agreement in place
Zestcor (Durban)
• Energy efficiency & fuel economy
• Reduce emissions & longer oil life
• Cost competitive blending
• Compatible with wider range of fuels
• Quality assurance
• Support to Group II transition
• Continued Group I availability
ExxonMobil is committed to:• Long term, quality Group I & II supply
• Meet distinct needs of blenders in Africa
Africa growth drives distinct base stock requirements