november 24-30, 2015 spartans top buckeyes in college game

VegasInsider.com

Volume 30, Issue 14 November 24-30, 2015

10★ MICHIGAN STATE (+16) WINS STRAIGHT UP!

Spartans Top Buckeyes in College Game of the Year, 17-14!

• ‘Betcha Didn’t Know’ Handicapping Article

• Awesome Angle & Tremendous Trends

• Incredible Stat of the Week

• Analysis on Every Lined Game

• Best Bets and Key Plays

• Full Schedule with Opening Lines

5★ Turkey Shoot $99 Weekend Of Football Winners Is Here!

GET EVERY EDGE IMAGINABLEGET SMART GET PLAYBOOKCOPYRIGHT NOTICE - All materials in this newsletter are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, rebroadcast, displayed, or otherwise published

without the prior written permission of Playbook.com. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice, nor may you offer for sale or resale the material included herein.

• www.VegasInsider.com

2015 Amway Coaches

Poll Top 25 (Week 13):

1 CLEMSON2 ALABAMA3 IOWA4 NOTRE DAME5 OKLAHOMA6 MICHIGAN ST7 BAYLOR

8 OHIO ST9 FLORIDA10 OKLAHOMA ST11 N CAROLINA12 STANFORD13 MICHIGAN

14 FLORIDA ST15 NAVY16 TCU17 NORTHWESTERN18 OREGON19 OLE MISS

20 WASHINGTON ST21 HOUSTON22 MISSISSPPI ST23 UCLA24 TEMPLE25 UTAH

Marc Lawrence's

BETCHADIDN'TKNOW

“Mama take this badge off meI can’t use it anymore

It’s gettin’ dark, too dark to seeI feel I’m knockin’

on heaven’s door.”

KNOCKIN’ ON HEAVEN’S DOOR

A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping

PLAY AGAINST any sub .500 college football road team in its last game of the season if

they were a bowl team last year and were a dog of less than 10 points in their previous game.

A ll good things come to an end. That’s a given. Whether it’s a winning run at the tables

in a casino or a dream date with a stone-cold fox, the fact is both will eventually turn to crap long before you’d like.

The same holds true for football players and their teams. Once a prince and now a pauper is the storyline behind many a team from one season to the next.

With that thought in mind, singer songwriter Bob Dylan penned a song in the early ‘70’s titled KNOCKIN’ ON HEAVEN’S DOOR. The tune describes the feelings and impressions of a dying deputy, who can no longer continue his role as a law enforcer. Having come up short

Teams in this role know the drill: they’re the guys who donned bowling shirts at the conclusion of last season only to fi nd themselves now wearing a dead man’s skin. That’s evidenced by an 11-31-2 ATS mark by teams performing in this role since 1980. Missouri,

Maryland and Virginia Tech are this week’s doorknockers.

Bring these teams in as dogs of 3 or more points and they’re ready for the undertaker, going 1-32 SU and 6-24-2 ATS. Worse, if they happened to beat today’s opponent in their most recent meeting, they’re ready to be ‘pushing daisies’, going 0-20 SU and 2-18 ATS. Say good night to Missouri. And if any of these teams are taking on a foe off a SUATS win, they practically lie down and die, going 0-16 SU and 1-13-2 ATS. With that, last rites are in order for Maryland and Virginia Tech.

Hence, the grim reaper fi gures to come knocking on the doors of the Hokies, Terrapins and Tigers this Saturday.

While it may mean the end of the line for certain disappointed teams, it’s a refreshing knock on Heaven’s Door for the handicapper savvy enough to pay his respects, if you know what I mean…

today on his capabilities in the past, he’s now faced with dealing with the situation.

It also fi ts the bill for college football teams that languished in the glory of a bowl season the previous year, only to fall far short the following season. This bitter disappointment often times meets with tragic results, especially in the pointspread wars.

That’s confi rmed by our powerful database as it reminds us to –

View Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week at the PLAYBOOK.com website!

ATS W-L Record Since 1996:

12-2(86%)

ROADWEARY

PLAY AGAINST any college football road favorite who won

7 or fewer games last season off an overtime win in which they scored 28 or more points

and failed to cover the spread.

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

T R I V I A T E A S E R

This coach loves catching points, going 13-2 ATS in his last fi fteen games as an underdog. In addition,

he is 10-1 ATS in his career as a dog when facing .800 or greater opponents. Who is this week’s top dog?

For the Trivia Teaser answer, turn to page 7.

THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY

Be sure to check out the COACHES LEAGUE for ATS records on every College & NFL coach in 16 key situational roles. Simply log on to www.PLAYBOOK.com and click on the COACHES LEAGUE.

T R I V I A T E A S E R

Play AGAINST: NORTH CAROLINA

www.VegasInsider.com • page 3

The Ohio State Buckeyes are 17-0 SU in road games under current

head coach Urban Meyer.Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

Thursday, November 26Philadelphia 4-1 Thursdays vs < .500 opp… 0-10 off BB H vs opp w/ rev DETROIT SERIES: 2-6 L8… 1-7 H aft AFC opp… 1-6 Thursdays w/ rev

Carolina 4-0 off H vs opp off A (3-0)… 5-1 vs < .500 bef New Orl DALLAS SERIES: 4-1 L5… 6-1 H vs .500 > bef Washington

Chicago 0-8 Away Six off non-div game… 1-6 aft AFC vs div oppGREEN BAY SERIES: 9-1 L10 / 3-1 L4H… 10-2 .500 > HF’s btwn 2A

Sunday, November 29New Orleans 8-1 vs .500 > off SU dog win… 7-1 w/ rest vs opp off SU win HOUSTON 0-5 off BB SU dog wins… 1-7 vs NFC opp off SU loss

Minnesota 7-0 off H vs opp off H (1-0)… 1-7 .500 > A aft Green BayATLANTA 5-1 off SU fav AFC loss… 8-30 in 2nd BB H vs .500 > opp

St. Louis 4-0 in 2nd BB AFC… 8-1 dogs bef Ariz… 1-5 in 2nd BB A CINCINNATI SERIES: 0-4-1 L5 / 1-3 L4H… 10-1 off NFC vs non-div

Tampa Bay 6-0 vs AFC opp off SUATS win… 0-4 Away Six INDIANAPOLIS 5-0 H bef BB A w/ rev… 5-1 in 2nd BB NFC games

NY Giants 6-1 vs opp w/ quintuple rev… 2-10 Away Six off SU loss WASHINGTON SERIES: 0-5 L5… 1-7 HD’s off SU loss 21 > pts

Oakland 7-1 off NFC off BB SU losses w/ rev vs < .500 oppTENNESSEE SERIES: 7-2 L9H… 5-0 off Thursday gm vs < .500 non-div

Buffalo 11-3 w/ rev off MNF… 0-5 off div vs opp off div (0-1) KANSAS CITY SERIES: 1-6 L7H… 2-9 off 4 SU wins vs .500 > opp

Miami 10-1 < .500 off NFC (0-1)… 0-9 A btwn 2HNY JETS SERIES: 4-0 L4… 1-8 .500 > Home Six favs vs div opp

San Diego 0-4 Away Five… 1-6 A bef Denv vs non-div opp off SU win JACKSONVILLE 9-0 .500 > H bef Tennessee… 4-1 Home Five vs non-div

Arizona 7-0 off AFC (2-0)… 5-0 bef St Louis (1-0) SAN FRAN 11-2 Home Six w/ rev… 1-5 H btwn 2A (1-1)

Pittsburgh 4-1 Away Five… 1-8 vs opp w/ triple rev (0-2) SEATTLE SERIES: 6-1 L7H… 5-0 .500 > aft San Francisco

New England 5-1 off MNF… 1-6 A btwn 2H vs non-div opp DENVER SERIES: 2-6 L8… 5-1 bef San Diego… 4-1 Home Five

Monday, November 30Baltimore 0-6 favs off H vs opp off A (0-2)… 1-4 off NFC w/ rev CLEVELAND SERIES: 1-6 L7H… 0-4 off SU loss 21 > pts vs div opp

College Football Games

2-MINUTE HANDICAP ATS = Against The Spread • A = Away • Con = Conference • D = Dog

F = Favorite • H = Home • Rev = Revenge • R = Road • SU = Straight-Up

FOR A COMPLETE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP OF EVERY GAME ON TODAY'S CARD, VISIT www.PLAYBOOK.com

TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS

All results are ATS – Against The Spread – and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains the exclusive private property of PLAYBOOK™ and PLAYBOOK.COM™ and may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.

TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS

NFL Games

SMARTBOX

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS-UPDATEAs we alluded to earlier on these pages, our ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ theory is an excellent handicapping edge. Best of all, it’s simple and it wins.

To review, what we’re looking to do is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) heading into November. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.

As we head toward Thanksgiving, and with these plays now 6-4 thus far this month (4-2 as ‘play on’ dogs and 2-2 as ‘play against’ favorites), here’s our list of teams from our sister publication – the PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT – that still remain as ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2015 season as potential contending plays. As the list of qualifying teams shrinks a bit each week, it’s important to remember the rules and play accordingly:

Play-On Dogs: Alabama, Baylor, Clemson, North Carolina, Ohio State and TCU.

Play-Against Favorites: Kansas, North Texas, Syracuse and UCF.

That’s it. With the Buckeyes and the Horned Frogs looking like our kind of dogs this week, it’s time to sharpen your knife and bring on the turkey…

Friday, November 27Iowa 12-2 away L3Y… 6-2 as conf favs 8 < pts… 1-3 aft PurdueNEBRASKA SERIES: 3-1 L4 home… 4-1 as conf HD’s < 10 pts

Navy 5-1 as dogs 6 < pts… 3-1 away vs .800 > opp Gm 7 >HOUSTON 1-5 as conf favs 7 < pts… 1-4 home vs .700 > conf opp

Wash St 5-0 w/ conf rev TY… 4-0 as conf RD’s 7 < ptsWASHINGTON 8-1 vs conf rev… 7-2 as HF’s 7 < pts… 7-3 aft Oregon St

Baylor 0-3 aft Okla St… 1-3 Weekday RG… 3-7 bef HG vs TexasTCU SERIES: 7-1 L8… 7-1 w/ conf rev… 8-2 as HF/HD 3 < pts

Saturday, November 28Ohio St 7-2 away vs .750 > conf opp… 5-2 aft Michigan StMICHIGAN SERIES: 2-5-1 L8… 4-1 home off BB RG… 2-7-1 LHG

N Carolina 1-6 as conf RF’s 4 > pts… 2-5 away w/ conf revNC STATE SERIES: 6-2 L8… 6-1 LHG… 8-2 in 2nd of BB HG

Florida St SERIES: Visitor 4-0… 4-1 LRG… 1-5 L6 as non-conf dogsFLORIDA 8-3 as non-conf favs 7 < pts… 0-5 Last lined Home Game

Alabama 5-2 vs conf off non-conf gm… 1-5 as RF’s 8 > ptsAUBURN 1-3 Last lined Home Game… 1-3 as conf HD’s > 10 pts

Oklahoma SERIES: Visitor 4-1… 4-0 away w/ conf revOKLA ST SERIES: 3-1 L4… 6-2 in 2nd of BB HG… 3-7 aft Baylor

Notre Dame SERIES: 3-1 L4 away… 6-2 LRG… 6-2 L8 vs Pac 12STANFORD 1-5 w/ rev L3Y… 1-3 non-conf HF’s 5 < pts

Ucla SERIES: 3-0 L3… 4-1 aft Utah… 5-2 vs conf revUSC 6-1 as conf favs 7 < pts… 7-3 w/ conf rev


Marc Lawrence’s award-winning football selections are available all season long at:

VegasINSIDER.com

Remember: You Have A PLAYBOOK BEST BET Whenever Our Predicted Margin Of Victory Is 6 Or More Points In Favor Of Your Line

Gators Chomp Down On Seminoles, Go Into Death Roll...Eagles Make Turkey Day Feast Out Of Toothless Lions...

THIS WEEK IN FOOTBALL - NOVEMBER 24-30

Tuesday, November 24Bowling Green over BALL ST by 16

When former president Richard Nixon was forced to resign, he uttered this now famous quote during his farewell speech: “You don’t have Nixon to kick around anymore.” Well, after tonight’s twin bill from Muncie and DeKalb has concluded, we won’t have to suffer through Tuesday Night MAC games anymore! Of course, if the majority of teams in the Mid-American Conference played at the level of the 8-3 Bowling Green Falcons, we’d actually look forward to a weekly Tuesday MAC attack on our TV screen. However, this Week 12 lid-lifter doesn’t look like a great spot to back the Bee Gees, even against a woeful 3-8 Ball State squad. Last week’s home loss to Toledo aside (did the Falcons play possum to lure the Rockets into a false sense of security should they meet in the championship contest on December 4th?), the Bee Gees have already clinched the East Division crown. We don’t particularly like laying points on the road with teams that have either a league title game berth or a bowl game invitation tucked in their back pocket, and we won’t start here. Even though Pete Lembo’s Cardinals will close out their second straight disappointing season, the 5th-year HC is 3-1 SU in Last Home Games and his Ballers actually upset Bowling Green as 10-point dogs last year. The Cards are also 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in this series when the Falcons take the fi eld off a SU loss. To recap, it would be a ‘Tragedy’ if you ignore our advice by backing the Bee Gees tonight, and that ain’t no ‘Jive Talkin’.

NO ILLINOIS over Ohio U by 8Tonight’s mission for Northern Illinois is simple: win and the Huskies will earn the right to battle Bowling Green for this season’s MAC championship. It’s an assignment they’ll certainly choose to accept as HC Rod Carey looks to make a third straight conference title game appearance, and the program’s sixth in a row. Meanwhile, Ohio’s Frank Solich was catching some serious heat after his Bobcats spoiled a 5-1 start with a 3-game losing streak but back-to-back wins over Kent State and Ball State have Ol’ Frank poised to nab his seventh bowl bid since landing in Athens back in 2005. And though it may look like suicide to challenge an NIU squad on Senior Night that is currently riding a 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS win streak, our database reminds us that the Bobbies have claimed the cash in four of the last fi ve series get-togethers. With the Huskies now 1-6 ATS in their previous seven Last Home Games and feeling the pressure of tonight’s must-win situation, we’ll grab the points in this latest battle of cats and dogs. This message may not self-destruct in 5 seconds but if you buck the Bobcats here, your bankroll just might.

Thursday, November 26South Florida over UCF by 27

If you got a glimpse of UCF’s horrendous performance in last week’s 44-7 home loss to East Carolina, you know why HC George O’Leary called it quits a month ago. The Pirates showed up riding a 3-game losing streak but still destroyed the Knights with relative ease, spotting the hosts a 7-0 lead before scoring 44 unanswered points and emptying Bright House Networks Stadium (outgained UCF 605-232). In fact, these Knights are so bad that our Over/Under on the numbers of fans spotted in attendance tonight is 100 – and

we’re loading up on the Under! Yes, last week’s impressive 65-27 blowout of a good Cincinnati team has the red-hot Bulls on a 6-1 SUATS skein, including 3-0 SUATS the last three – all as underdogs! However, the problem tonight is our mean machine, which orders us to fade USF after noting: favorites playing off SU underdog wins are just 9-21 ATS recently, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in season fi nales. But as much as we respect our database, we’re not going to war with a barefoot bunch of Knights that have an interim head coach, a giant goose egg in the win department, 33 fi rst-time players on the roster and a 50-13 average margin of defeat in their last four outings. You make the call.

TEXAS over Texas Tech by 7Texas HC Charlie Strong shot down recent rumors that he was a candidate for the opening at Miami Florida by saying, “We’re here to build a program… that’s why I came to Texas.” Of course, if Charlie doesn’t bag a win tonight and next week against Baylor, his Longhorns may be stranded on the ranch come bowl season – and Strong’s employers may decide to cut their losses by letting him go. Expectations are never as high in Lubbock but 3rd-year coach Kliff Kingsbury has his 6-5 Red Raiders poised to don their bowling shirts for the second time under his command. Let’s hope Kliffi e doesn’t need an attention-grabbing performance from his team here because they show up with enough bad numbers to sink the Bismarck. Not only have the Techsters been stampeded both SU and ATS in their last fi ve meetings with Texas, they’re also a money-burning 2-10 ATS in their last 12 trips on the Big 12 road. Strong has bested Kingsbury by 25 and 21 points in their two head-to-head matchups and with the Red Raiders bringing a chock-full-of-holes 550-yard defense with them, it looks like more of the same here. Hook ‘em.

Friday, November 27

A: Les Miles, LSU

GAME OF THE WEEKUPSETUPSET UPSETUPSET

Marshall over W KENTUCKY by 3Two trains on one track usually leads to a slam-bang collision and that’s what we expect here when this pair of streaking teams – Marshall is 8-1 SU in its last nine and WKU is 7-1 SU in its last eight – lock horns in Bowling Green. Tonight’s battle for the C-USA East’s top spot is a Black Friday rematch from last year’s stunning 67-66 loss the Herd suffered as 23.5-point home chalk, spoiling an 11-0 perfect season mark. Now THAT’S what we call meaningful revenge! Doc Holliday’s crew has also enjoyed a week of rest to bask in the glow of their confi dence-building 52-0 rout over FIU and prepare a game plan for this circled-in-red rematch. Don’t expect the Hilltoppers to relinquish their throne without a fi ght: their only two losses this year came on the road against Indiana and LSU, and they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on this fi eld, winning by an average of 22.8 PPG at L.T. Smith Stadium. But while Western Kentucky may own an intimidating 10-1 SU mark in Last Home Games, the ‘Toppers are a bottom-feeding 1-6 ATS in their last seven home contests versus avenging foes. Not so for Marshall, who stands 14-3 SU in the last 17 games away from Huntington and will dress up as a dog for only the third time in the last three years. Holliday’s Herd is also 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games when seeking revenge, which leads us to The Clincher: The Hilltoppers are 2-10 ATS as favorites versus .500 or greater opponents, including 0-7 ATS at home.

READY OR NOT, HERE WE COMEWith no less than 40 bowl games on the docket this season, listed herein is the group of 13 college football teams with 5 wins on the season, playing their fi nal game of the season this weekend, looking to gain bowl eligibility: Buffalo, East Carolina, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Old Dominion, San Jose State, Tulsa, Virginia Tech and Washington.Note: these 4-6 teams need wins this week and next week to become bowl eligible: Georgia State, Kansas State, Texas and UL-Lafayette.

(continued on next page)


NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a

strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.

4� BEST BET

With a golden ticket to this year’s Big Ten title game already in hand, Iowa hopes to avoid a treacherous SMART BOX ‘As The Noose Tightens’ trap today. And while the 11-0 Hawkeyes don’t need a win here, the allure of an undefeated regular season – and revenge for last year’s 37-34 home loss to Big Red – should provide them with plenty of incentive. On the fl ip side, this matchup is HUGE for Mike Riley and his Cornhuskers, already a major disappointment at 5-6 and facing the distinct possibility of being stranded in Lincoln this December while a gazillion other schools make the trip to play in a bowl game. Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz, benefi ciary of one of the weakest Big Ten schedules in recent memory, shows up today riding a gaudy 15-3 career record in away games when looking to avenge a home loss – but in none of them was his team unbeaten and in contention for a National Championship. The Corn Boys don’t show up empty-handed: they’re 3-1 ATS in the last four series meetings on this fi eld, 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in the series when taking points, and 6-1 ATS as conference home dogs when owning a win percentage of less than .700. Coach Riley also arrives for this regular season-ender with a 7-2 ATS log as a dog off back-to-back wins versus an opponent off consecutive wins, and a 6-0-1 ATS mark the last seven times he’s challenged an undefeated foe. With Nebraska’s six losses coming by an average of less than 4 PPG, the all-knowing database wraps it up with The Clincher: 11-0 teams away in Game Twelve are 4-10 ATS when facing a foe off a win, including 0-5 ATS in games versus a .700 or less adversary.

NEBRASKA over Iowa by 10

PITTSBURGH over Miami Fla by 10The Panthers nearly blew a 25-point lead over Louisville last week before posting a 45-54 win but Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi swears he never entertained the thought of losing. “At halftime I said, ‘Hey, I’m not worried about winning this game… it’s just by how many points are we going to win this game?’” Narduzzi said. Well, the fi rst-year coach may want to maintain that attitude today as a Pittsburgh win clinches second place in the ACC Coastal standings. The Hurricanes took care of business last Saturday with a 38-21 decision over Georgia Tech but honestly, who hasn’t beaten up on the feeble Yellow Jackets this year? And while a 5-0 ATS mark for the series visitor suggests Miami might be worth a look here, Marc’s ‘Times They Are A-Changin’ BLACK BOOK article instructs us to fade 6-7 teams from the previous season like the Canes who are now playing on the road off a SU win. Added support for the Panthers comes from the MIDWEEK ALERT, which reports the ‘U’ is losing the yardage battle against ACC foes by an average of -82 YPG – while Pitt is winning them by +51 YPG. Panthers prevail in this high-noon showdown between former Big East rivals.

BUFFALO over UMass by 11A few people complained about last week’s statement that some of the UMass football players took an hour-and-a-half to watch ’60 Minutes’. One person claimed he had personally witnessed a player view the popular CBS news show in 1 hour 17 minutes, while another maintained that learning to spell ‘Massachusetts’ was traumatic enough for many on the team. Intelligence quotients aside, the biggest question mark in this afternoon’s game happens to be the health of UMass star QB Blake Frohnapfel (that’s not easy to spell, either). Frohnapfel did not git ‘er done in last week’s shocking home loss to Miami Ohio, completing 17 of 34 attempts for just 181 yards, well below his season averages. Worse, though, was the fact that Frohnapfel was not made available for postgame interviews as he was undergoing ‘medical treatment’ after apparently getting nicked on his throwing arm on the second-to-last play of the game. As for Buffalo, the 5-6 Bulls become bowl-eligible with a win here, and while that may sound like a simple matter, consider the following. There are 40 bowl games, 80 bowl berths. Entering this weekend’s games, 62 teams were bowl-eligible and another 18 were within one win of bowl-eligibility. But 11 more teams were within two wins of qualifying – and a 5-7 team cannot go to a bowl game ahead of a 6-6 bowl-eligible team. “It’s our championship game, that’s how we’ve got to approach it,” quarterback Joe Licata said of the UMass game. “If we don’t win Friday, then it’s going to be our last game.” Since the series host has cashed in three of the last four games, and the weary Minutemen will be playing in their 12th straight game without a week of rest, look for the Bulls to give B-Fro and his boys 60 minutes they’ll be sure to remember.

AKRON over Kent St by 6In HC Terry Bowden’s prior three seasons at Akron, his Zips had gone 3-9 ATS when asked to lay points. But this year T-Bow is a perfect 3-0 SUATS as chalk. That, along with a recent 3-0 SUATS winning streak, could explain why the hosts are double-digit favorites here today. It’s an alien role for the Zips as they’ve laid doubles only twice since Bowden took over, failing to cover both while losing one SU. Akron can claim a 5-1 ATS effort of late in home games against KSU but with the Zips’ win over Buffalo making them bowl-eligible for the fi rst time in T-Bow’s tenure, don’t be surprised to see a bit of a letdown here after a week of celebrating. Even more encouraging for the Golden Flashes, this intense neighborhood rivalry (just 15 miles separate the schools) has seen seven outright upsets take place in the last 13 meetings. We’ll give the SU nod to Bowden’s Zips but Kent State should earn some ‘going-away’ cash before returning to campus for a long winter’s nap.

GEORGIA ST over Troy by 3You’ve come a long way, baby. That old advertising slogan for Virginia Slims cigarettes certainly applies to this year’s Georgia State Panthers. Opening the 2015 season with a home loss to never-played-a-game Charlotte – after going 1-23 SU the previous two years – could have been enough to put any program in a tailspin. But after an all-too familiar 1-4 start, Trent Miles and company have won three of their last fi ve contests in impressive fashion to improve to 4-6. Thus, GSU will become bowl-eligible with wins in their fi nal two games. With the Panthers going on the road to Georgia Southern to close out the regular season, though, we see no bowling shirts in their immediate future. However, revenge for a pair of beatdowns administered by Troy should give the Panthers enough incentive to get the job done at the Georgia Dome this afternoon. The 3-7 Trojans have had two weeks to stew over a 45-10 home loss to Georgia Southern where they blew an early 10-0 lead, prompting angry HC Neal Brown to say, “I’ll tell you this: we’re going to play a lot better football these last two games coming down the stretch. We are in the foundation level of building this program and we will fi nish this thing the right way.” We may hear the same speech Saturday night after the Trojans fall to Georgia State.

TOLEDO over W Michigan by 4Toledo is headed for its best-ever season under 4th-year head coach Matt Campbell. Unfortunately, the 9-1 Rockets’ sole setback of the season came against Northern Illinois, meaning they must win here and NIU must lose to Ohio U or UT will be locked out of the MAC championship game… again. Even more troubling is the fact that the Huskies and Bobcats play on Tuesday night, so Toledo will show up here either pumped to the max or fl atter than a pancake (we’re guessing it’s more likely a case of Aunt Jemima). But the Rockets aren’t the only team that can’t remove an NIU thorn from their side. After blowing 19-14 lead in last Wednesday’s 27-19 loss to Northern Illinois, Western Michigan has now lost to the Huskies seven years in a row, and the Broncos’ MAC championship game appearance drought now sits at 15 years (it’s been 26 years since WMU last won a conference title). As for today’s matchup from the Glass Bowl, Toledo enters with a 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS series edge. But with the series dog now 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and the Rockets a poor 0-3-1 ATS in their four previous Last Home Games, we’ll saddle up with the Broncos here. This just in from the MIDWEEK ALERT: WMU is winning the MAC stats by 149 YPG this season, which is 11 YPG better than Toledo. Take the points.

C MICHIGAN over E Michigan by 27You’ve heard of coaches ‘burning game fi lm’ after a particularly bad loss? Expect EMU head coach Chris Creighton to set fi re to any footage of this whole freakin’ season… if the AD will let him back into his offi ce to get a cigarette lighter. The 1-10 Eagles from Ypsilanti are clearly one of the WORST teams in the country, riding an 0-9 SU and 0-7-1 ATS losing skid, and we’re guessing Creighton never envisioned things being so bad when he took over this sinking ship. We know one thing: a 4-1 ATS mark by the visitor in this series of late doesn’t even come close to convincing us that Eastern Michigan can stay within the number here. No, we’d rather back a 6-5 Chippewas squad that is not only bowl-eligible but thrilled to hear that HC John Bonamego is now cancer-free after being diagnosed back in June. Bonamego, of course, kept the focus off himself by stressing that 6 wins may not be enough to earn CMU a bowl invite. “I know numerically it makes us eligible but I’m not allowing myself to go there.” Said Bonamego. “We have an important game left to play here at home. It’s important because it’s a conference game, it’s important because it’s the last home game for our seniors, it’s important because it’s an in-state rivalry game and it’s important because winning this game would bring



VegasINSIDER.com

WASHINGTON over Wash St by 6Who knew Huskies HC Chris Petersen was a Playbook reader? After last week’s writeup on Washington when we said Petersen might as well pack his bags if he couldn’t beat Oregon State, his sled dogs took us to task by annihilating the lifeless Beavers, 52-7. Well, that same statement about leaving town goes double here in Seattle this afternoon: besides a loss to hated WSU not sitting well with the locals (U-Dub is 5-1 SU the last six), failure in this year’s Apple Cup game would also snap a 5-year postseason appearance skein for the Huskies. As for picking a side, we haven’t seen an opening line. The visiting Cougars have been underdogs in eight straight; if that holds true, they’ve gone 4-0 ATS of late as Pac-12 road dogs of 7 or fewer points. However, in that same price range, Washington is 7-2 ATS as conference home chalk… so no advantage there. Washington State has certainly settled a lot of scores this year, going 5-0 ATS in conference revenge matches, but all-important QB Luke Falk – currently listed as probable after bashing his head (concussion) and being carried off the fi eld in last Saturday’s win over Colorado – must suit up if we’re to even consider a play on the Cougars. If he can go, Wazzu has a serious shot at clinching second place in the Pac-12 North division. The Huskies, who will fi nish with a losing record in conference play for the second straight year under Petersen regardless of today’s outcome, can still make a return bowl trip to by bringing down their nemesis. Once we see who’s giving and who’s taking, we’ll make up our mind.

OREGON over Oregon St by 36What a horrifi c ‘homecoming’ it’s been this year for new Oregon State HC Gary Andersen. Having coached in the state of Utah for 16 years prior to a brief 2-year stint at Wisconsin, Andersen inherited a 5-7 team that has gotten steadily worse as the season wore on. In fact, we haven’t seen such a Beaver-pounding since Clara Bow supposedly took on the entire USC football team, including soon-to-be actor John Wayne, in 1927. As for the Ducks, they’ve started quacking at the optimum time of the season, piling up fi ve consecutive SU wins and covers against the best the Pac-12 has to offer. Even before Oregon State began its descent down the toilet, the winged ones controlled this series, cashing in four of the last fi ve meetings, and they show up at Autzen Stadium today packing some 10-2 ATS heat against conference revengers. No such luck for the Corvallis crew, who arrive with 3-10 ATS record when playing with Pac-12 revenge and a 3-7 ATS mark as road dogs of 20 or more points. You know the idea of laying fi ve TDs in any game is not in our wheelhouse. But when the underdog has been oustatted by 338 YPG – and outscored 147-31 – in its previous three contests, we have no choice but to say lay it or leave it.

Boise St over SAN JOSE ST by 1It’s offi cial… second-year Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin has been victimized by the sophomore slump. Heading into mid-October, Harsin had won 17 of his fi rst 20 games with the Broncos. Since then, the former BCS Busters have gone 2-3 on the scoreboard. Most damning, though, is the fact that BSU just lost back-to-back home games. Bad enough those defeats came as 30 and 10-point chalk but the fact is the program had lost just two games on the smurf turf in its previous 10 seasons! Still sitting at 7-4, the Broncos bring so much reputation into this contest that the linesmaker had no choice but to make San Jose the dog. There’s sure no quit in the 5-6 Spartans: before hammering Hawaii last Saturday, they dropped games against BYU and Nevada by a total of only 4 points. And honestly, they couldn’t have picked a better time or place to play Boise if they’d won the scheduling lottery. Our all-knowing machine reports that road teams off back-to-back SU double-digit favorite losses are 2-6 ATS, plus Jose has won and covered four of its previous fi ve Last Home Games. Most important, the hard-trying hosts are 7-3 ATS of late as home dogs, and the Spartans fi gure to come with everything they have looking to pick up that all-important 6th win of the season – and their second bowl trip since 2006.

TCU over Baylor by 6Off-the-board mystery surrounds this matchup thanks to a wobbly quarterback situation for both teams. With TCU’s Trevone Boykin nursing an ankle injury at Oklahoma last week, backup Foster Sawyer took over but was inconsistent at best, tossing three interceptions. He was replaced in the third quarter by Bram Kohlhausen, who almost led the Frogs to an incredible 4th quarter comeback. Baylor is essentially clueless as to who their quarterback will be after former backup and current starter Jarrett Stidham only played one half in the Bears’ smackdown of Oklahoma State. Third-string Chris Johnson saw his fi rst action of the season, throwing for 138 yards and two TDs while running for a third in relief. Confused? Signal callers aside, our database leans toward the Froggies in this evening’s showdown at Fort Worth, pointing out that TCU is a startling 7-1 ATS in the last eight series scraps, and an equally profi table 7-1 ATS when

us to seven wins and that would really assure us a bowl. The way things stand right now across our conference I’m not sure that 6-6 guarantees you anything, so it’s very important.” History tells us that when a coach uses the word ‘important’ more than fi ve times in one paragraph, we need to pay attention. Lay it if you play it.

ARKANSAS over Missouri by 17Having a scout in the fi eld can be a two-edged sword. Sometimes they provide us with relevant information that puts us on the right side of a game. But sometimes they go rogue, getting their paycheck and then disappearing for weeks at a time. That seems to be the case with our SEC scout, Jaybird The Bulldog, who took a recent trip to Vegas and hasn’t been heard from since. Reliable sources say he was spotted a few days ago with some guy named Anthony, zip-lining down Fremont Street. But for now, we’ll have to continue on without Jaybird’s assistance. The Tigers’ two-year reign in the SEC East offi cially comes to an end today, along with a sterling 15-year career at Columbia by retiring Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel. Pinkel was very disappointed in last week’s fi nal home loss to Tennessee (“I didn’t want it to end like this,” he said, dabbing tears away from his eyes) but as much as we’d love to get in line for this ‘Win One For The Gipper’ moment, Marc’s ‘Knockin’ On Heaven’s Door’ BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article on page 2 insists we can’t. A month ago, the future did not look good for 2-4 Arkansas and HC Bret Bielema. But even after last week’s gut-wrenching 51-50 loss to Mississippi State on a missed last-second fi eld goal, the Hogs have a shot at a 7-5 regular season fi nish. Razorbacks QB Brandon Allen surpassed Ryan Mallett for the most TD passes in program history with 63 for his career, and set a program record with seven touchdown passes in the game versus the Bulldogs, breaking his own record of six, accomplished at Ole Miss this season. While we normally fade players and teams off record-setting performances, this is Allen’s fi nal home game with the Hogs. Revenge from a season-ending loss as road chalk at Missouri last year cements it. Woo Pig Sooie!

Navy over HOUSTON by 3Turns out that Houston couldn’t stand prosperity. After a miraculous 35-34 comeback win over Memphis to remain undefeated, the Cougars left their storybook season on the fi eld at UConn last week when the offense failed to get untracked in a devastating 20-17 upset loss. And with the hosts opening as 1-point chalk in today’s battle, UH shows up as a bonafi de ‘Bubble Burst’ fade. In addition to a quarterback situation that remains unsettled, the Coogs have suffered a dismal 1-5 ATS mark as AAC chalk of 6 or fewer points, as well as a 1-4 ATS home record when taking on a .700 or better conference opponent. Across the fi eld, it’s been a banner year for the Midshipmen. Navy QB Keenan Reynolds is now the NCAA’s all-time leader in rushing touchdowns and the team has a chance to post double-digit wins for just the second time in HC Ken Niumatalolo’s 8-year career at Annapolis. But most important, Navy can claim the AAC West title by stopping Houston – quite an achievement in the program’s fi rst year of conference affi liation. With the sailors riding the wave of a 5-game win streak and showing up with a 5-1 ATS ship’s log as dogs of 6 or fewer points, we’ll give Navy the call over down-in-the-dumps Houston.

Tulsa over TULANE by 10Any thoughts we had of going Green on Senior day went right out the window following Tulane’s embarrassing 49-21 blowout loss at SMU last Saturday. In one of their worse defensive performances of the season, the Green Wave defense got gashed for an incredible 323 rushing yards by the Mustangs. After that disaster, Curtis Johnson’s Tulane team is being outyarded 127 YPG and outscored 19.6 PPG in AAC play this season. Ugh. Tulsa has been trapped in a streaky-bad season in HC Phil Montgomery’s fi rst year at the helm, betrayed by a stop unit that’s actually 120 YPG worse that Tulane’s. Normally, we would NEVER back a team that gives up 532 YPG but the Golden Hurricane will be extremely motivated tonight as a win over the Greenies would make Tulsa bowl-eligible. And with the Oklahomans now 9-1 SUATS in the last ten series contests, we’ll ride with the Big Breeze against a Tulane team that may see its head coach canned by day’s end.



strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.(continued on next page)

playing with Big 12 revenge. And when we say revenge, ‘bear’ in mind that the Frogs’ lone defeat in 2014 came by just 3 points against this Baylor team. Meanwhile, Art Briles’ bunch is stuck in an Okie State-Texas sandwich, going 0-3 ATS after OSU and 3-7 ATS before a home game with the Longhorns, and they’re a weak 1-3 ATS in weekday road trips. Our SMART BOX tells us the Frogs are a ‘Puttin On The Stats’ play and we’ll oblige, even without Boykin and star WR Josh Doctson questionable (check status). Fear The Frog.

Saturday, November 28Ohio St over MICHIGAN by 7

Jim Harbaugh has been involved in some huge games in his head coaching career – Super Bowl XLVII for example – but none bigger than today when he leads ‘that team up north’ onto the fi eld at the Big House against Ohio State. In the last ten meetings in college football’s most intense and meaningful rivalry, the Buckeyes have won nine times, the lone misstep coming in Luke Fickell’s single year at the helm following the departure of Jim Tressel (OSU still covered in the 6-point loss). Current Buckeye head coach Urban Meyer is 3-0 SU versus Michigan but he’ll have to unite his dejected, bickering squad in the wake of last week’s staggering home loss to Michigan State, a defeat that saw Ohio State lose the stats for the fi rst time in two years – along with a 23-game SU winning run and a great chance to defend its National Championship. So naturally, such a monumental loss would guarantee a fade against the Buckeyes after having their ‘Bubble Burst’, right? That’s a negatory, good buddy. With OSU dressing up as a dog, we’re on the take… especially in a fi ght-to-the-death series that’s seen the Buckeyes go 5-2-1 ATS of late. Remember: Ohio State was a -9.5-point favorite in this game in Vegas before the season began… and now they’re a dog after going 10-1 this season? Don’t think so. The mean machine tells us OSU is 7-2 ATS away from Columbus when taking on a .750 or better conference foe, and coach Meyer occupies this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2 – as well as a spot in the INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3. That’s a one-two punch we can’t pass up! Buckeyes, again.

APPALACHIAN ST over UL-Lafayette by 28There was a time before joining the FBS in 2014 that the Mountaineers won 10 or more games every year. In fact, they did it in six consecutive seasons under Jerry Moore from 2005 to 2010. Now the boys from Boone are intent on doing it again for the fi rst time under Scott Satterfi eld, needing this game and a win next week at South Alabama to do just that. ASU enters this contest off a Bye week on the heels of winning six of their last seven, while the Cajuns arrive mired in last week’s ‘7 Come 11’ SMART BOX quicksand. To illustrate, .500 or less teams in Game Eleven who won 7 or more games last season and are coming off a pair of losses-exact, are 3-22 ATS when facing a .600 or greater opponent. That’s what we call drowning. The Mountaineers clubbed Louisiana in Lafayette, 35-16, last season as 8-point chalk, and are also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 Sun Belt tilts. Usually identifi ed with their dominant rushing attack, ASU stays on a roll behind QB Taylor Lamb, who has thrown 26 TD passes versus just 7 picks. Download the App and enjoy the game.

KENTUCKY over Louisville by 3A huge game for Mark Stoops, who can earn bowl eligibility with a win here over the hated Cards – the team that denied them a trip to the alleys last year with a 44-40 defeat in the 2014 fi nale. The Wildcats enjoyed a brief escape from the SEC meat-grinder last week with a 58-10 win over Charlotte, which leads us to note that home dogs who scored 50 or more points in their last game are a nifty 33-22 ATS. Meanwhile, Louisville is coming off a disappointing loss to Pitt, squandering an extra week to prepare for the Panthers by quickly falling behind by 25 points before awakening too late from their slumber. We realize that Kentucky is just 2-10 ATS as a home dog, but with Stanley “Boom” Williams back to full strength after gaining over 100 yards on the ground in his two games since returning from injury, the Cats should be ready to control the football. Both teams are in a QB quandary right now, but the bottom line here is that Louisville is a 6-5 ACC squad laying points at a hungry 5-6 SEC site… so a take is in order today in this annual cats-versus-birds free-for-all.

MICHIGAN ST over Penn St by 7 Despite the absence of QB Connor Cook, the Spartans were able to keep their national championship hopes alive by toppling Ohio State on Saturday night. As a result, Mike D’Antonio will have his hands full trying to fend off a natural letdown today. Against the Buckeyes, D’Antonio

used a heavy ground attack (55 rushes vs. just 16 passes from the two-man rotation of Tyler O’Connor and Damion Terry) along with his stout defense to pull out the victory. Sparty has beaten four AP Top 25 teams this season but amazingly, never led at any time in the Michigan and Ohio State victories until the fi nal play of each game (think about that). Because of those wins, the Spartans hold tiebreakers over both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines, so all they need is a win over the Nittany Lions to advance to the Big Ten Championship game against Iowa. That’s never a given in the crazy Big Ten, and we urge caution on the line when it fi nally comes out (not available at press time with Cook’s status still up on the air), especially since Penn State will be out to avenge a 34-10 loss at home to MSU in their Last Home Game of 2014. The well-oiled machine concurs: teams who beat defending national champions are just 4-11 ATS when facing a foe off a loss, including 0-4 ATS in the last four. Michigan State’s resumé is looking better and better as both Oregon and Air Force continue a late-season charge, but they simply cannot overlook a Penn State team with strong-armed, albeit inconsistent, QB Christian Hackenberg. Lions throw a scare into Sparty.

EAST CAROLINA over Cincinnati by 4Apparently, it took until halftime in Tampa on Friday night for Tommy Tuberville to convince his Bearcats that they weren’t on Dale Mabry Boulevard for a visit to Mons Venus. A plethora of turnovers and a defense that imploded in the opening half versus USF (the Bulls hung 51 points on them in the fi rst two quarters) has turned a once-promising season into a struggle to survive. Nothing a win here can’t soften a bit, and it’s something that may put the bowls in a generous holiday mood as Cincy still has plenty of entertaining, attractive talent. (Let’s face it: who can say “no” to a 7-win team that averages 571.5 YPG.) Unfortunately, the Bearcats are just 1-4 SU on the road this season and they’ll be facing an East Carolina team that is 8-2 ATS in their Last Home Games over the last decade. Also, the Pirates need a win to snag a bowl bid or they face walking the plank and snapping a 3-year bowl skein under Ruffi n McNeill. Our biggest reservation for this contest is that ECU is outgaining AAC foes by 36 YPG whereas Cincy is winning the stat wars by 185 YPG In conference play this season. Still, while the Pirates are down a notch this year after QB Shane Carden moved on from Greenville at the conclusion of 2014, we would not be shocked at a Ruffi n-inspired offensive explosion nor a Cincy road meltdown again this week.

TEMPLE over Connecticut by 16Bob Diaco for President! No doubt, that’s what the Storrs faithful were barking after the Huskies upset previously undefeated Houston on Saturday despite the loss of a concussed QB Bryant Shirreffs early in the game. It was not as shocking as some inferred as the Huskies have shown under-the-radar improvement this season, especially on defense, and took advantage of the absence of explosive Cougar QB Greg Ward, Jr. while holding Houston to just 318 yards on offense. The victory secured a 6th win and a bowl bid for the Huskies for the fi rst time since Randy Edsall departed for Maryland following the 2010 season. However, looking at this week’s matchup in Philly with the defensive-minded Owls, the always-reliable database reveals it’s not a good thing for teams who knock off 8-0 or greater teams as an underdog and then fi nd themselves on the highway the next game (8-16 ATS). Besides, Temple was extremely impressive in its 31-12 win over Memphis last week, holding the Tigers to a season-low 232 yards, and marking the fourth time this year they held a team to a watermark low. Finally, keep in mind that Temple has covered eight of the last nine meetings with UConn, and should continue their dominance over a squad that is just 7-19-1 ATS against their last 27 conference foes. Owls give a hoot while taking down the loot.

WEST VIRGINIA over Iowa St by 6We fi gure this game to be a ‘Win One For The Gipper’ effort by the Cyclones as they look to send recently fi red Paul Rhoads out a victor in his fi nal game at Iowa State. Rhoads was 32-54 in his seven seasons at the helm in Ames, but apparently the last straw was when the Cyclones blew a 21-point halftime lead in Saturday’s 38-35 loss to Kansas State. Known for his passion and hard work, Rhoads was unable to fulfi ll the promise his veteran team showed heading into the campaign, with a 24-0 shutout of Texas on Halloween one of the lone bright spots. In fact, in the three games before and the three games after Texas, the Cyclones allowed an average of nearly 47 PPG. As for Dana Holgorsen’s team, the Mountaineers’ 49-0 whitewash of Kansas last week cemented a bowl bid for West Virginia, giving them three straight wins after an 0-4 October. The visitor in this series has won and covered the last three meetings, including a 37-24 win by West Virginia last season. Still, emotion is a big part of college football and we look for the inspired Cyclones to rise to the occasion here.



VegasINSIDER.com


strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.

Duke over WAKE FOREST by 8Talk about dominating a series: the Demon Deacons beat the Blue Devils 12 straight times from 1999 to 2011. However, HC David Cutcliffe has turned the fortunes of the Duke program around over the past three years and as a result, his team will be looking for its fourth consecutive win over Wake Forest. But much like the last three years when the Dookies disintegrated down the stretch after promising starts, the downslide started even earlier this season, as four straight defeats have the Devils crawling towards the fi nish line. It all started with the “Lateral Loss” to Miami and came to a head last Saturday with a 42-34 loss on the road last week at Virginia. And while they’re still going bowling, a win here is important to help the Blue Devils avoid a bottom-of-the-barrel postseason venue. On the fl ip side, Wake Forest is riding a 5-game losing streak, although their 3-0 ATS mark in the last three games shows they haven’t yet tossed in the towel. Still, until the Demons can start recruiting more speed and athleticism, they’ll remain doormats in the tough ACC – and with that, we’ll side with the hungrier visitor.

Boston College over SYRACUSE by 3Two weeks ago, it was the Orange with a courageous effort against #1 Clemson. Then this past weekend, the Golden Eagles hung tough in a 3-point loss to the Fighting Irish at Fenway. But if you’re one of those who feel there is no such thing as a moral victory in college football, then these examples are just another scratch in the loss column for 3-8 bottom-feeders. One thing we always look at before publishing this newsletter is the ‘In The Stats’ ledger, and both teams are bleeding badly: the Eagles are 0-5 ITS in their last fi ve games while the Orange is 0-10 ITS versus FBS foes, losing the last four games by more than 200 yards each! A 1-14 SU mark over the fi nal eight games of the season for the ‘Cuse over the last two years – and the fi ring of HC Scott Shafer on Monday – makes them nearly impossible to play. But we’re certainly not laying points with a BC squad that is ‘leaking oil’. Instead, we’ll make like Dan Marino and pass with an extremely quick release.

Indiana over PURDUE by 1The Hoosiers are one of four Big Ten teams looking to become bowl-eligible today. It would be Indiana’s fi rst bowl game since 2007, so the incentive is certainly there for Kevin Wilson’s troops. There is no question that QB Nate Sudfeld has had a breakout season for Indiana, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards, but top RB Jordan Howard is questionable today with a knee injury. Another problem is the fact that the Hoosiers have surrendered season-high yards in four of their last fi ve games, not a situation we want to be in today while laying points. Also, the Boilermakers – playing with double revenge– would like nothing better than to keep their rival home for the holidays in what fi gures to be a high-scoring shootout. But the bottom line is this contest decides possession of the Old Oaken Bucket (how old, you ask? Try 90 years old…), so toss out the records, throw out the stats and let’s play this one down to the wire! We’ll be watching from the sidelines.

OLD DOMINION over Fla Atlantic by 3Don’t look now but ODU is on today’s shopping list of 5-win teams looking to claim a 6th bowl-eligible win. If there is any justice, the Monarchs will get it, then receive an invite to the Popeye’s Bahamas Bowl for a reward to their players, staff and fans. Old Dominion is 24-3 SU in their fi nal four games of the season over the last seven years (of course, most of that in FCS play), including a trio of 3-point wins to close out the schedule last season. Meanwhile, FAU put a big smile on Howard Schnellenberger’s face somewhere last week while rasslin’ the Gators by the tail, only to fall just short in overtime. After blocking Florida’s PAT in the OT period, the Owls failed to put it in the end zone after a 1st-and-goal at the 9, with a late-arriving rain perhaps partly to blame. The big question is this: will that be a confi dence booster or will it lead to a demoralizing letdown? The one thing we know for sure is that FAU is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven road-chalk roles. Hence, the Monarchs get the nod here.

TENNESSEE over Vanderbilt by 11A win today for the Volunteers clinches 2nd place in the SEC East, and with it Butch Jones deserves a hearty pat on the back for a job well done. QB Joshua Dobbs gets most of the headlines, but it’s the Vols’ defense that deserves the big ink right now, as they shut down Mizzou’s rushing attack and made freshman QB Drew Lock look like… well, a freshman, in Tennessee’s 19-8 win on Saturday. The Volunteer stop-unit had held foes to eight straight quarters without a point until Missouri fi nally scored an “oh, by the way” TD in the 4th quarter. As for Vandy, they will be joining SEC brethren South Carolina at home for the holidays this season after a 25-0 shutout loss to Texas A&M last week ensured a second straight losing season under Derek Mason. The Commodores mustered only 148 yards on offense last week, which was a season-low, and have now passed for less than 45 yards in three games over the last month. Still, a rivalry dog off a shutout loss is an angry dog – and we like angry dogs. Besides, Vandy has covered the spread in the last three meetings in this series, and its defense is solid, allowing only 4.5 yards per play. In fact, it was a 95-yard TD pass to Josh Reynolds that marked the Aggies’ only trip to the end zone as the Commies forced Texas A&M to settle for SIX Taylor Bertolet fi eld goals. They’ll need more of the same to slow down Dobbs, who seems to have hit a bit of a wall late in the season.

GA SOUTHERN over South Alabama by 14Reminiscent of last year’s late-season shocker over the Gators, the Eagles came this-close to another monster upset last week – this one over their big brother Dawgs before fi nally succumbing in OT. It was a huge defensive effort for Willie Fritz’ team as they held Georgia to just 2-of-10 on third down and forced a pair of fumbles, taking one back 62 yards to the house. Nearly another watershed game for the program, but unfortunately for the Eagles, that fi nds them ‘out of gas’ and an overtime home favorite fade this week in our book. For South Alabama, it looked like a rebuilding year coming into 2015, and it sure seemed like it when they got smoked back in September by non-conference opponents Nebraska and NC State. However, they can rise to the occasion at times, like when they traveled to San Diego State and upset the Aztecs as 17-point dogs by outgaining SDSU by 206 yards. Now they just need a win this week or next to go back to a bowl for the second straight season. Don’t bet against them.

Unlv over WYOMING by 4This is your classic garbage-versus-garbage contest, so get those clothespins ready. After arriving from North Dakota State where he won three FCS titles, Wyoming HC Craig Bohl was expected to be a savior, but instead he’s apparently now driving the garbage truck. Defense is non-existent for both teams – each giving up 40.7 PPG in their last three games – but the big discrepancy in those three contests is yardage gained: almost 440 YPG for the Rebels and just 261 for the Cowboys. Another comparison would be the fact that both teams lost to SDSU in their last games – the Cowboys by 35 (out fi rst-downed by 12), the Rebels by 38 (out fi rst-downed by 2). So when in doubt, grab the revenging team (Rebels) as it’s diffi cult for a bad team to beat anyone two times in a row. Keep in mind that matchups of sub .300 conference foes in season-enders fi nd the avenging team 32-21-1 ATS. Finally, with the Cowboys 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when not getting double-digits, we feel you’ll agree that UNLV is the only way to go in this Waste Management special.

Middle Tennessee over UTSA by 20The 6-win Blue Raiders appear to be hitting on all cylinders, going 3-0 SUATS in their last three games, but Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill remembers quite well that his team was 6-6 with no bowl invite last year after losing their season fi nale. “Our goal coming in wasn’t to be bowl eligible,” Stockstill cautions, adding, “It’s to go to a bowl. We’ve put ourselves in a position to do that, and it’s been a heck of a comeback. I’m really proud of our football team.” Meanwhile, Larry Coker’s Roadrunners have posted just three victories this season, including two straight. However, they were outstatted in both contests and last week’s win over Rice was their only victory at the Alamodome this season. With only six starters returning this season, Coker was aware this would be a rebuilding year, but the loss of starting QB Blake Bogenschutz to a concussion in early October has been extremely costly. On the Raider side, the coach’s son Brent is having a stellar campaign at QB with over 3,400 yards and 26 TDs through the air. Both Stockstills are taking no chances regarding holiday fun as they lay down the law to ensure a bowl invitation here.

UTAH over Colorado by 16Colorado is one of only two FBS schools (Hawaii is the other) that will play 13 straight weeks without a bye and it fi gures to take a toll here today, especially without starting QB Sefo Liufau, who fractured his foot against USC and is out for the year. Against Washington State on Saturday




VegasINSIDER.com

3� BEST BET

The up-and-down Wolfpack is 6-1 SUATS in Last Home Games, including 5-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit win, but will need to overcome mistakes today as they fi nished last week’s Syracuse win with 10 penalties for 98 yards. It’s the third time in ACC play the Wolfpack has been penalized at least nine times. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels surrendered a 14-point lead and needed to rally in OT to beat Virginia Tech last week. More troubling for today’s matchup, they’re just 1-5 ATS as conference road favorites of 4 or more points and 2-5 ATS away with conference revenge. Plus, the Heels are a ‘Times They Are A-Changin’ BLACK BOOK fade (6-7 team last year away off a SU win) and with a ticket to the ACC title game in their back pocket, we’re going against them as well. A quick look at this series sees 12 upsets in the last 17 matchups and State has covered six of the last eight meetings. All good fodder for the dog, as is The Clincher: See this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on Page 2.

NC STATE over North Carolina by 6

5� BEST BET

What are we missing here? Last summer the Golden Nugget in Vegas posted their line on Marquee Games. It’s fair to say that Florida State has done what most expected of them, while Florida probably exceeded the expectations of 99% of the betting public. The line in the summer was the Seminoles -2, the same as this week, meaning little-to-no-respect for the Gators. Meanwhile, Florida State enters in a poor role as the ‘Noles are just 1-12 ATS off a SU win versus opponents seeking double revenge-exact, while head coach Jimbo Fisher is just 2-4 SU versus an opponent with a better record. Fisher is also a weak 10-18 ATS when facing a foe off a spread loss, including 1-7 ATS the last eight. Looking inside the stats, Florida has held nine foes to season low – or 2nd low – yards this year, yet fi nd themselves in a rare home dog role (beat Ole Miss 38-10 here as 7.5-point dog earlier this year). And as dogs with revenge, the Gators are 5-1-1 ATS. Lest we forget, Florida is still in the chase for a CFB Playoffs spot with a win here as well as next week in the SEC title game. With Jim McElwain riding a 14-game home win streak, we’re buying in hook, line and sinker with his ‘dead fi sh’ approach. The Clincher: McElwain is 6-1-1 ATS in his career versus .750 or greater opponents, including 4-0-1 ATS as a dog.

FLORIDA over Florida St by 11

– a team hardly known for any defensive prowess under Mike Leach – the Buffs scored just 3 points and rushed for a mere 85 yards versus the worst rushing defense in the nation. But the Utes also have their injury problems, which have brought a good offense crashing down. With star RB Devontae Booker out for the season with a knee injury, Utah suffered a demoralizing 17-9 loss to UCLA on Saturday that marked the fi rst time in over two years that they failed to crack the end zone. With any hopes of a Pac-12 Championship dashed following back-to-back defeats, the Utes will try to attract a decent bowl bid with an impressive win today. However, with a ‘leaking oil’ favorite (0-3 ITS Utah’s last three games) on one side and a tired team on the other, we’ll just hold up the pass sign.

Byu over UTAH ST by 1The independent Cougars, led by QB Tanner Mangum, will go up against the nation’s 9th-ranked passing defense in search of their 9th win this season, something they haven’t done since 2011. They will also be playing with revenge as BYU lost SU at home as a 21-point favorite to the Aggies last season. However, Utah State has serious problems at QB: former starter Chuckie Keeton, in and out of the line-up all season (mostly out), has not played much this season due to a sprained knee. His replacement, Kent Myers, was knocked out in the 1st quarter last week against Nevada, so Keeton was pressed into service and helped engineer a comeback from 20 points down to give the Aggies a 31-27 victory. Now once again, Utah State’s signal-caller situation is in question, so we’ll wait until later in the week to revisit this one. Remember that Aggies HC Matt Wells is 15-2 SU at home, including 14 straight wins at Merlin Olsen Field, and that junior RB Devante Mays is coming off one of his best games of the season, gaining 133 yards and scoring twice in the second half of last week’s comeback.

VIRGINIA over Virginia Tech by 3Virginia Tech HC Frank Beamer coaches his fi nal regular season contest this week after being carried off the fi eld by his players following last week’s home loss to UNC. He needs this win to extend a 22-year bowl skein – and his career – for one more game with the Hokies. Across the fi eld, this will most likely be Mike London’s swan song as well, albeit for different reasons. One is retiring after 29 seasons while the other is deservedly getting pink-slipped following fi ve losing campaigns in his six years at the helm. Like Beamer, London is well-liked by his players and his staff but the Cavaliers have lost to their cross-state rival 11 straight times, so obviously it’s time for a change in Charlottesville. The Cavs did gain a season-high 502 yards in a win over Duke last week and they’ve posted fi ve straight ATS wins entering this game. However, Virginia has led or been tied in the second half in eight of its 11 games, which speaks mostly to the Cavaliers’ inability to fi nish games. The problem with backing the Hokies is a nasty fade as outlined in Marc’s ‘Knockin’ On Heaven’s Door’ BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article on page 2 – and we’re not challenging that. FYI: Playbook Expert handicapper Tim Nolan informs us that Frank Beamer is from Mount Airy, NC, the hometown of Andy Griffi th and the town that Mayberry RFD was based on. No word whether Barney Fife will be on the sidelines today.

RICE over Charlotte by 16After seven straight losses, Charlotte gave a spirited six-quarter effort before losing their Last Home Game to UTSA by 3, then trailed Kentucky by only 20-3 at the half. However, the 49ers allowed 38 straight points and a season-high 544 yards to the Wildcats, drawing frustration from head coach Brad Lambert. “I’m just real disappointed defensively by the second half. It’s hard to believe this is the same team that held FAU to a season-low 184 yards the last week in September.” Rice’s Last Home Game (9-1 ATS) will be at work today as the Owls saw Conference-USA’s longest active bowl streak (4) come to an end last week. “My heart goes out to those seniors who have worked so hard to try and go to a fourth consecutive bowl game,” Rice head coach David Bailiff said after the game. “I’m sick to my stomach for them because more than anything we wanted to get this senior class out with a four-bowl-game legacy.” Look for the Owls to send off the seniors with a win here.

RUTGERS over Maryland by 4This ‘who cares?’ matchup between recent Big Ten additions has seen the visitor cover three straight games, including last season when the Terps where 7.5-point home favorites and lost outright, 41-38. A situation we rarely fade is that Maryland is “only” -51 YPG in conference action compared to Rutgers at -173 YPG. The difference this season is that after winning seven of its last nine games on the road, Maryland is winless in its last fi ve – which can be partially attributed to an interim head coach. Marc’s ‘Knockin’ On Heaven’s Door’ BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article on page 2 insists we fade the Terps here today and we’ll do just that as Maryland’s seven straight ‘In The Stats’ losses makes them a ‘leaking oil’ favorite. With a string of four straight bowl games having gone down the drain, we fi gure this season-ender becomes the Knights’ bowl game instead.

Georgia over GEORGIA TECH by 10Please play the Powerball for us if you matched these Peach State FBS teams’ conference records – 5-1, 3-3, 5-3 and 1-7 – in this order: Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Georgia and Georgia Tech. Yes, it’s safe to say the Yellow Jackets’ highly promising season has gone to hell in a handbag this year. It went even further south last week when the Ramblin’ Wreck took a 7-0 lead against Miami, then lost starting QB Justin Thomas to injury in the fi rst quarter before allowing the Hurricanes 31 points unanswered points. The series visitor has covered seven of the last eight meetings and while the Bulldogs have clearly underachieved themselves (most picked them to win SEC East), they have major revenge from dropping a 30-24 decision to the Jackets as 10.5-point home chalk last year. Since Georgia can still reach the 10-win plateau and Paul Johnson is rumored to be on his way out, we’ll likely fi nd Ol’ Sourpuss on the Tech sidelines for the fi nal time – with his replacement likely being an in-state resident from Statesboro. Dawgs git ‘er done.

Kansas St over KANSAS by 14We’ll take the Big 12 Conference for $100, Alex. The answer: No, we are not. The question: Are you on drugs playing against Bill Snyder versus Kansas, against whom he has won and covered six straight Governor Cups?


VegasINSIDER.com

page 10 • www.VegasInsider.com

Well, even Hall-of-Fame coaches fade away – as Snyder will do at the end of this season. Last week, KSU snapped a 6-game losing streak despite allowing 304 yards and 35 points in the fi rst half versus Iowa State. And with it, our MIDWEEK ALERT supplies this statistical oddity of the week: as poorly as the Jayhawks have fared this season, they have lost the stats by -184 YPG in Big 12 play – which is actually better than KSU’s -294 YPG in conference games this campaign. We’re also well aware that K-State needs this to hit the Alleys but tell us the last time you found a 20-point road favorite that was being outyarded nearly 300 YPG in conference action. This is the Jayhawks’ fi nal chance to avoid a winless season and it’s a mighty motivator as only two Power-5 teams since 2000 have gone winless, including Washington in 2008 and Duke three times, the last in 2006. Hold your nose and grab the points in this rivalry rumble.

Texas A&M over LSU by 3In case you don’t have access to the secret SEC head coaching handbook, rule 3.18 states that if your competitor is down you must kick him – and continue kicking him – as it will help him rise above his current situation. The Tigers have now lost three straight for the fi rst time since 1999 and with it, the talk is circulating hot and heavy surrounding Les Miles’ buy-out departure. The Tigers are 1-10 ATS in their Last Home Games and are also 1-6 ATS after facing Ole Miss. So today, it’s A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin’s turn to play kick-ball and he plays it well, going 15-0 SU and 12-1 ATS versus foes off a loss when his team is off a spread win. With LSU and a bevy of other SEC teams falling far short of projections, a 9th win here lands the Aggies a primo bowl. Take the points as sometimes ‘Les’ is more.

ILLINOIS over Northwestern by 3Five seasons ago these two faced off at Wrigley Field. This time they take the Red Line south to play at Soldier Field. The teams are headed in opposite directions as the Wildcats have won four straight while the Illini have lost fi ve of six. So why is it Northwestern is only a FG favorite? Instead of comparing apples-to-apples, we’ll compare Chicago-style hot dogs and discover that Illinois is -14 YPG in Big Ten games while Northwestern is -49 YPG. When comparing Italian Beef sandwiches, we fi nd that the Illini are exactly even in yardage in games away from home, while the Wildcats are -76 YPG playing away from Evanston. We also benefi t playing against Northwestern’s misleading win over Wisconsin last week as the Badgers did themselves in with fi ve turnovers (Wildcats are also 0-5 ATS after Wisconsin). With the Illini on our list of 13 teams fi ghting for a bowl bid this week, the well-oiled machine cements it with this nugget: college football favorites off a SU win as a double-digit dog are a long-term 52-72-23 ATS proposition when playing on the road in their next game. Grab the dog in this Chicago-style rivalry.

Alabama over AUBURN by 8Alabama is now 18-2 SU when visiting an SEC foe, with one of the two losses the infamous ‘kick-six’ the last time they visited Auburn. The bad news is the Tide are also only 1-6 ATS as road chalk of 8 or more points. Bama has certainly recovered from the Ole Miss upset but they are paying the price today as they were just a 2-point choice over Aubbie in Vegas this summer. On the opposite sideline is a ‘nothing-to-lose’ relaxed rival with a potential season-making upset. Many have hopped off the ‘Gus bus’ but rest assured, Auburn fans and players alike will be pumped up to the max for this encounter. Our Coaches Database agrees: Gus Malzahn is 8-3 SUATS in his career with revenge, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a dog of 2 or more points. In addition, the host in this series is 6-2 ATS, with three straight covers, while Auburn is 5-1 ATS in its previous six Last Home Games. A cornered, caged Tiger should always be feared, especially one that is 8-2 ATS in the center ring when playing with conference revenge. Tide win but not before suffering a case of the ‘Alabama Shakes’.

CALIFORNIA over Arizona St by 1Cal’s 5-0 start to the season has turned into a 1-5 fi nish after last week’s 35-22 loss at Stanford, despite the Bears owning a 139 yard edge in the contest. QB Jared Goff passed for 386 yards – the most allowed by the Cardinal in 44 games dating to 2012. “We just couldn’t fi nish drives,” Goff said of three red-zone chances that led to fi eld goals. “If we fi nish those drives, it’s a different game.” Now the Bears take on a Sun Devils squad which averages 4.0 sacks

per game (tied #1 in FBS with Penn State) and 8.9 tackles for loss per game, which ranks second in the FBS. Arizona State has struggled closing out games as Arizona outscored them 13-0 in the third quarter, turning what should’ve been a rout into a one-possession game. In fact, in the Devils’ last two road games, they saw a 14-10 defi cit turn into a 34-18 loss at Utah and a 14-10 lead turn into a 38-24 loss at Washington. With major faults on both sides, we’ll grab the points… especially with California just 1-4 ATS in its Last Home Game and 1-4 SUATS the game after Stanford. Join us as we worship the Sun Devils tonight.

Texas St over IDAHO by 3You must learn how to win before you learn how to cover. You must learn how to win before you learn how to cover. You must... okay, we got it. This is the only the EIGHTH time the Spuds have been home favorites in the last fi ve seasons and not only are they 1-6 ATS in the others, they lost FIVE of those outright (that’s the learning how to win aspect). The Vandals have yet to shake their losing mentality and player discipline issues continue to surface. After star WR Dezmon Epps led the team in receiving in 2013 and was dismissed in 2014, they invited him back this year – only to play in six games before getting the boot again. Despite the dismissal, Epps still leads the team in receptions and receiving yards. The revenging Bobcats, who lost this contest as 14.5-point chalk last season, have struggled on offense as they averaged 34 PPG in their fi rst six games, but only 17 PPG the last four. The defense, though, has picked up the slack and held ULM to a season-low yardage mark last week. Idaho was on the opposite end of the spectrum, allowing Auburn a season-high in yards last week. A lousy 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS mark in Last Home Games cements it. The Potato Heads get fried on Senior Day today.

LA TECH over Southern Miss by 3The winner of this contest wins the C-USA West. If your fi rst thought was this line looks short (LTU -6), then guess again. The born-again Golden Eagles, who bring a 5-game win skein into this contest, are winning the stats by a whopping 270 YPG in C-USA games this season. On the fl ip side, conference bear Louisiana Tech is winning them by only 101 YPG. Trailing Old Dominion 31-21 with 7:30 left in the third quarter last week, the Golden Eagles reeled off 35 unanswered points to win their fi fth consecutive game and fi nish the conference home slate unbeaten. About last week’s lethargic 17-15 win over lowly UTEP, Bulldogs head coach Skip Holtz sounded more like father Lou when he said, “It’s great to win, 50 percent of the teams lost today around the country. I talked earlier this week about this being a dangerous team. I believe they were. We have played here before and they are hard to beat at home. I’m proud of our players, I’m proud of the way they were able to compete and come in here. I’m certainly glad I didn’t rest my starters like some people suggested earlier in the week.” Sounds like Skippy is a tad nervous… as he should be.

MEMPHIS over Smu by 17When does a 2-10 team have more momentum than an 8-3 team? That would be the case here as SMU, with fi rst-year head coach Chad Morris, builds towards the future, coming off season-highs of 518 total yards and 323 rush yards on a 49-21 Senior Night win over Tulane. Just three short weeks ago, the Tigers were 8-0, had upset Ole Miss a few weeks earlier and were ranked No. 16 in the Amway Coaches Poll. Now they’re 8-3 and last week failed to score a TD for the fi rst time in 19 straight games in a 31-12 loss at Temple. While a ninth win will certainly boost the quality of the Tigers’ bowl ticket, Playbook readers know what to do when a 3-touchdown favorite allowed season-high yards in two of their last three games. Now, just do it.

Clemson over SOUTH CAROLINA by 10The in-state ACC/SEC rivalries which take place here in South Carolina as well as in Georgia and in Florida mean one thing – you can throw all the records out the window as a disastrous season can be salvaged with a single upset. That is certainly one way the Gamecocks’ season can be described. However, they are also 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in their lined Last Home Games, while cashing fi ve of six in this series – including three straight at home. Clemson makes this trip having gone 2-8 ATS as road chalk of over 14 points, as well as going just 1-3 ATS in Last Road Games. And despite the coaching staff preaching 24/7 about a dangerous trap despite this week’s opponent sitting at 3-8, the Clemson players are certainly peeking ahead to the ACC Championship and the CFB Playoffs. If it wasn’t a bad enough year for the Gamecocks, last week’s loss to instate FCS foe The Citadel was the exclamation point: it was the fi rst loss by an SEC team to a lower-division foe since 2010. We’ll leave it with this thought: Embarrassment is like a rubber band… after it reaches a certain limit, it always snaps back.



Utep over NORTH TEXAS by 3When you’re in the fi nal stages of one of the worst football seasons in recent memory, several things can keep you motivated: Rest, a new full-time head coach, a positive performance in your fi nal game, or a regular season-ending rivalry. Sorry, Mean Green fans… you are Oh-fer as UNT is one of four teams playing without rest this season, they’re playing with an interim coach, they were outscored 128-20 in the last three games and with a recent conference change, there is no rival to face today. Sure, UTEP is disappointed not making it to a bowl but with a mid-October bye and not having played back-to-back road games since, a 9-7 record in their last 16 non-Power 5 games is plenty of solace. Losing to conference power Louisiana Tech by only 2 points, while holding the Bulldogs’ potent offense to a season-low 307 yards and fi nishing with a season-best +85 yards in the game, signals the end for the gang from Denton.

MINNESOTA over Wisconsin by 6It’s a good thing for head coach Paul Chryst and his Badgers that they’re away from Madison this weekend. At the end of last week’s 13-7 home loss to Northwestern (a result more puzzling than a Rubik’s Cube before the internet), the boos rained down from the Camp Randall stands after Wisconsin was held to minus 26 yards rushing. Think about that… not even Alex Trebek knows the last time the Badgers were held to negative yards rushing! Wisky has had its way with Minnesota, winning 11 games in a row SU, but the Gophers have gone 4-1 ATS in the last fi ve series battles for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. Minny also happens to be part of the win-and-you’re-in bowl bandwagon and the coaching staff would like nothing better than to make a bowl trip with Jerry Kill along for the ride. The Gophers certainly know how to spell ‘revenge’, especially when it comes to the Big Ten: Minnesota has gone 9-0 ATS in its last nine games when playing with conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Badgers have fared poorly against those trying to get even for a prior defeat, going 2-6 ATS versus conference revenge. Goldy Gopher snapped a 4-game losing streak with last week’s 32-23 win over Illinois while Wisconsin saw its 5-game win streak ended by the Wildcats. While supporters of the ‘broken streak theory’ will expect bounce-back results for both teams here, we’ll look for the racous crowd at TCF Bank Stadium to make the difference this afternoon.

Oklahoma over OKLAHOMA ST by 6Can the Cowboys do it? Can they knock off Oklahoma and make sure a Big 12 team isn’t included in the College Playoffs for a second straight year? That’s life in the ‘Okay, So We’ve Only Got 10 Teams And No Championship Game’ Big 12 conference, where the lack of a title game between division rivals has been a serious impediment to the league reaching the gridiron fi nal four. Hey, the Sooners were a fi xture in the conference championship game before defections left the league with only 10 schools. And while a win here won’t guarantee OU a spot in the fi nal four, we’re not about to fade Big Game Bob when he’s on a revenge mission (see TCU and Baylor the last two weeks). We’d normally be on the Cowboys like a Kardashian on a professional athlete but with OSU having stunned OU in Norman last year, a payback looks to be in order today. The series visitor has covered three straight times and the red-hot Sooners (6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS run) catch OSU in mid-Bubble Burst following the Cowboys’ painful fi rst loss of the season against Baylor. Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfi eld got dinged in the TCU game but has passed concussion tests, though his status for this latest installment of Bedlam is uncertain at presstime. Our MIDWEEK ALERT reports a sizable stat edge to the surging Sooners: +208 YPG in conference play this season compared to just +21 YPG for the Cowboys. And after seeing what Stoops had in store for the Horned Frogs and Bears, we won’t step in front as he looks to get even for last year’s embarrassing SU loss to Oklahoma State as 19.5-point home chalk. OU has cashed four straight tickets as a Big 12 road revenger but getting number fi ve won’t be easy, even with Baker Mayfi eld back behind center.

MISSISSIPPI ST over Ole Miss by 3Ever wonder why they call this annual deep South get-together ‘The Egg Bowl’? It’s because the winner has been awarded possession of The Golden Egg Trophy since way back in 1927. Keep a close eye on the line in this one – Ole Miss opened as a 1-point choice – as the underdog has won the last three games both SU and ATS. An MSU win vaults the Bulldogs into a second place fi nish in the SEC West while a Mississippi win and an Alabama loss (maybe in a parallel universe) puts the Rebels in the SEC title game for a rematch with Florida. After last week’s physical war with LSU, four Ole Miss defensive players could be out tonight: Defensive lineman Fadol Brown, Safety C.J. Hampton, Cornerback Cam Ordway and Linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche. Still, HC Hugh Freeze doesn’t believe the Rebels will have trouble getting up emotionally. “The Egg Bowl won’t make it diffi cult,” declared Freeze. “We’ll have emotion. We’ll be ready to go.” On the other side of the fi eld, State coach Dan Mullen hopes this game


VegasINSIDER.com

won’t be a replay of last Saturday’s 51-50 shootout with Arkansas, a game that featured 101 points and 1,010 yards of offense. It also left Mullen so exhausted that he compared the experience to sky-diving: “I was in a free-fall for four hours.” With the series visitor currently on an 0-4 ATS slide, we’ll call for a reinvigorated Mullen and his Bulldogs to settle the score for last year’s 14-point loss at Ole Miss. Polish up the Egg.

Notre Dame over STANFORD by 3A truly intriguing heavyweight matchup from the Farm. Stanford’s dream of reaching the College Playoffs was rudely dashed by a 38-36 home loss to Oregon two weeks ago but the Cardinal will still suit up in the Pac-12 Championship game regardless of tonight’s outcome. The Irish have played through a legion of injuries but just won’t go away, currently the highest-ranked 1-loss team in the polls after Alabama. They certainly tried to derail their own title quest last week in a sloppy win over Boston College, losing three turnovers inside the Eagles’ 5-yard line. ‘’It’s like leaving runners in scoring position,’’ Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly moaned, knowing his team can’t beat a quality foe like Stanford with another mistake-fi lled effort – especially since the Irish will be without starting DB KeiVarae Russell and leading rusher C.J. Prosise is listed as ‘doubtful’. Even so, we’re of the opinion that nobody in the Pac-12 has got the jam to beat Notre Dame right now, except maybe Oregon, and the Cardinals’ sketchy ATS history in this matchup is not encouraging. David Shaw’s team has gone 1-3 ATS on this fi eld in the series of late and they’ve failed to ring the register the last three times they’ve come favored over the Dame. Stanford dropped a 3-point decision to the Irish at South Bend in 2014 and the Cardinal are a puny 1-5 ATS in their last six tries at revenge over the previous three seasons. Add the fact that Stan is just 1-3 ATS versus non-conference opponents as home chalk of 5 or fewer points and the visitors’ 6-2 ATS log in their last eight encounters with the Pac-12 glows even brighter. Too much at stake for the Irish to blow this one.

Arkansas St over NEW MEXICO ST by 13Red Wolves sit atop the Sun Belt and need to simply stay clean to win the crown, fi rst against the Aggies here, then in the fi nal game of the season next week in a home revenger against Texas State. And after beating New Mexico State like a red-headed stepchild last year, 68-35, Arkansas State could be caught looking past the Aggies this afternoon. Big mistake: revitalized NMSU shows up off THREE SU underdog wins in a row, the fi rst time the boys from Las Cruces have won three straight times since 2004. This from a team that had allowed season-high yards in each of its fi rst eight games of the season! Our all-knowing database says not to look a gift Aggie in the mouth, noting that CFB dogs off three consecutive underdog wins are 19-12 ATS, including 10-2 ATS since 2008. New Mexico State’s offense was balanced to perfection in that trio of games, rushing for 782 combined yards while passing for 884. Do we think the Aggies can pull off upset No. 4? Nah, but they can steal the money from Arky State on Senior Day.

SAN DIEGO ST over Nevada by 21Wolfpack looks to be in the wrong place at the wrong time here tonight. They fought valiantly in last week’s 31-27 loss as 14-point dogs at Utah State, a result that nonetheless irritated Nevada head coach Brian Polian. “There’s no medal for trying,” said Polian. “I’m not happy it was a close game. We should have won it. We gave it away. It’s incredibly frustrating.” Despite the defeat, the Reno Wolves are still riding a bill-paying 4-game ATS win streak, and a SU win versus the Aztecs would reward them with a second consecutive 7-win season. Now comes the part where we say no way. There is simply no hotter team out west right now than San Diego State, owners of a 7-0 SUATS win streak, obliterating its last fi ve foes by an average of 30.8 PPG. Good luck stepping in front of that! Rocky Long’s Aztecs, who will tangle with Air Force for the MWC championship on December 5th, have gone 7-0 in conference play thanks to good quarterback play, consistent production from outstanding RB Donnel Pumphrey and a stingy defense that’s yielding 47 YPG less than last year’s unit. Toss in the Aztecs’ impressive +18 net edge in turnovers in MWC games this season and we can’t back a Nevada squad that’s covered only once in the last four series meetings. Lay it or leave it.


Air Force over NEW MEXICO by 12How appropriate that JJ Abrams’ reboot of the ‘Star Wars’ franchise arrives right as ‘The Force’ from Colorado Springs are making a major move to conquer the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons’ stunning win at Boise State last week vaulted them into a 1.5 game lead atop the MWC Mountain division, so they’ll still take on San Diego State for the conference cheese regardless of tonight’s outcome. Kudos to Air Force HC Troy Calhoun, who has led his team from the ashes of a 2-10 failure in 2013 to win 18 of their last 24 outings. And while Calhoun could be excused for looking ahead to the Aztecs (SDSU has beaten Air Force fi ve straight times), the Flyboys’ current impressive 5-0 SUATS and ITS run tells us they won’t crash and burn here. New Mexico blew a great opportunity of make this a winner-take-all game for the Mountain division crown when they fell to Colorado State last week at Albuquerque, 28-21. But as nice of a resurgence as the Lobos have mustered this season, they’re losing the stats by -125 YPG in MWC action, the main reason they’ve been outyarded in their last six games. By comparison, the Falcons are winning the stats by +175 YPG in conference play and we’re not going to step in front of that. One thing’s for sure: with the Flyboys rushing for 333 YPG and New Mexico good for 237 ground yards per game, there will be a LOT of running plays at University Stadium tonight. May the Force be with you.

USC over Ucla by 6There’s a lot more on the line than just bragging rights for these two L.A. schools this afternoon. Currently in a 3-way tie atop the Pac-12 South with Utah (all three own 5-3 league marks but the Utes fell to both USC and UCLA), the winner of this game will claim the title and a trip to the championship game against Stanford. The Trojans fl oundered in last Saturday’s 48-28 road loss at Oregon without team-leading tackler Cameron Smith, who suffered a season-ending knee injury against Colorado the week before. They also committed a season-high 12 penalties for 124 yards, mistakes they cannot repeat if they hope to get past the hated Bruins here. UCLA head coach Jim Mora Jr. has redirected the fl ow of money in this series: the Bruins were 0-3 ATS before his arrival in 2012 and they’ve gone 3-0 SUATS since. Unfortunately, Mora’s trip to the Coliseum may not pay dividends again as Southern Cal is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings on this fi eld, plus the series host has cashed in nine of the previous 12 rumbles. With USC now 6-1 ATS as conference chalk of 7 or fewer points, and the Bruins a wallet-emptying 0-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, we think it’s time for the pointspread pendulum to swing the other way in this latest Battle For Los Angeles. The Trojans were our preseason pick to win the Pac 12, and they still can starting with a win here today.

Colorado St over FRESNO ST by 8These two aren’t just headed in opposite directions, they’ve already arrived. Colorado State wrapped up its all-important 6th win last week by beating New Mexico and a 7th win tonight would upgrade the Rams’ ticket to a higher-caliber (and bigger dinero) bowl matchup. We searched high and low for a feel-good stat that would bring a ray of light into an otherwise dark and dismal campaign for the 3-8 Bulldogs and here it is: Fresno State’s 2015 senior class has posted a 19-5 SU record at home over the last four years, and helped the Bulldogs win back-to-back Mountain West championships in 2012 and 2013 – along with a West Division title in 2014 – and now look to cap their careers with one fi nal victory in Bulldog Stadium. However, reality rears its ugly head when we see that FSU is being outgained by 181 YPG in MWC games this season, while losing games by an average margin of 13.3 PPG. Yes, the series host has gone 8-3 ATS of late but the Rams counter with a 9-4 SU effort in their last 13 true road games. If the Bulldogs go down, expect HC Tim DeRuyter to top next year’s list of Coaches On The Hot Seat… if he survives the winter. We’ll give CSU the straight-up nod but when it comes to calling for the ATS cover, you’re on your own.

UL-Monroe over HAWAII by 3We’ll go out on a limb here and say that very few members of the UL-Monroe team have come within a thousand miles of Honolulu, much less ventured to the land of sand, surf and sunshine in late November. Yes, this is purely a vaction game for the Warhawks who, like the Warriors, are mired


VegasINSIDER.com

in an ugly 9-game losing slide. Hawaii need only look as far as its turnover defi cit of -19 in conference games to understand why this season slipped away. And we need only look at the Warriors’ horrendous 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS streak – including 0-9 ITS – to say no pineapple for us. We certainly don’t want any part of a team in tatters playing its 13th consecutive game without rest – a schedule that’s been heavy with air miles compared to most schools on the mainland. As for any home fi eld advantage, Aloha Stadium might be empty except for the families of some players and a few hard core boosters. UL-Monroe is every bit as awful as Hawaii and fi ve players are listed as either questionable or out for ULM, including QB Garrett Smith. Let’s see… both teams have 10 losses, the head coaches have been fi red and the remaining coaches and players can’t wait for the season to end. Why get involved in that?

PRO FOOTBALL

Thursday, November 26

5� BEST BET

You wouldn’t want to be Chip Kelly ordering a cheese steak at Pat’s this week. The beleaguered Philadelphia head coach would be better off ordering a Big Mac at the drive-thru than facing the heat from the natives that’s been hurled at him in Philly this week. So it’s best for him and the Eagles to be carving up their turkey in the Motor City this week. It’s where Philadelphia is 2-0-1 SU in visits since 1984. And it’s where the Lions are 2-9 SU and 2-8-1 ATS home on Thanksgiving – albeit 2-0 SUATS last two years. Our well-intentioned database also chips in with this nugget, noting that teams on Turkey day, in the middle of a three-game home stand, are 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS. It’s also good knowing Eagles’ QB Mark Sanchez is 10-3 SUATS in his NFL career in games against opponents off a SU underdog win in their last outing. Look for the Green Birds to improve to 6-1 SU all-time on Thanksgiving Day while the Lions fall to 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in this series. And if you’re looking for an extra helping, there is always The Clincher: Detroit QB Matthew Stafford is 4-12 ATS in games off BB wins, including 1-7 ATS when off two wins-exact.

Philadelphia over DETROIT by 11

Carolina over DALLAS by 3Winners of 14 regular season games in a row, the Panthers continue their no-respect tour when they take on the Cowboys at Jerry’s World Thanksgiving Day afternoon. How else can you explain a 10-0 team relegated to ‘pick’ status in a game against a 3-7 squad? We realize Carolina is 1-9 SU the last 10 games in this series, and making its fi rst-ever Thanksgiving Day appearance. But we can’t get past the fact that QB Cam Newton is 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in his NFL career versus a sub .500 foe off a win. Nor the fact that following their Bye week each of the past two seasons, the Panthers are now 11-2 SU in all games, outyarding all 13 of their opponents by an average 101.4 yards per game. They’re also the only team in the last 35 years to be undefeated and play on Thanksgiving Day since Green Bay in 2011. FYI: The Packers defeated the Lions in Detroit, 27-15, that day. Yes, Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys but the fact is Romo is just 39-26 SU and 26-39 ATS at home in his career, including 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS versus undefeated foes. Dallas falls to 2-7 SUATS versus opponents greater than .700 on Thanksgiving Day while dropping its fi fth straight ATS Turkey day ticket. Now hunker down and pass the gravy.

GREEN BAY Over Chicago by 12Now that the Packers have climbed back into a tie atop the NFC North, it’s time to buy a ticket for the Aaron Rodgers late, late show. The Green Bay quarterback is 16-3 SU and 14-5 ATS in division games throughout his career from Game Eleven out, as well as 13-3 SUATS all-time against the Bears – including 11-1 SUATS when not laying double-digits. In addition, the all-knowing database notes that .700 or greater favorites of more than 7 points are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS on Gobbler day. The Bears enter 4-9 SU and 3-9-1 ATS on Thursdays, while dropping six of the last seven games on Thanksgiving. Chicago QB Jay Cutler’s 7-18 ATS mark as a division dog cements it. Let the show begin.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM MARC LAWRENCE AND THE ENTIRE PLAYBOOK STAFF!


Sunday, November 29HOUSTON over New Orleans by 1

The good news for the Texans this week is that QB Brian Hoyer (4-1 SUATS versus the NFC in his NFL career) is expected back behind center. Better news is the fact that the Houston defense is hitting on all cylinders at the moment, having held each of its last three foes to season-low yards. So, yes, it appears the Texans are in position to separate themselves from a tie atop the AFC South with a win today. But deception can be tricky thing when it comes to the NFL. This much we know for sure... according to our history book, Houston is a paltry 1-7 ATS in games against NFC opponents off a loss. Meanwhile, the Saints are 7-1 ATS in game off a Bye week versus opponents off a win, while New Orleans QB Drew Brees is a super-sharp 25-9 SU and 24-10 ATS versus foes off a pair of SUATS wins, including 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS when taking 6 or fewer points in competitive contests. So the choice is yours: the hungry Hall of Fame quarterback in an advantageous role, or the formful opponent. You make the call.

ATLANTA over Minnesota by 6The Vikings had their bubble pricked in a step-up game with the Packers last week. As a result, they fall back into a tie for the lead atop the NFC North. On the other side of the fi eld, the Falcons fi nd themselves four lengths back of undefeated Carolina in the NFC South, fully realizing that a run at a Wild Card spot in the playoffs is their most realistic chance at the postseason. Hence, every game from here on out is on the priority list for Atlanta, especially those at home. The Dirty Birds enter today’s battle with a lofty 7-0 ATS record off a home game when facing an opponent off a home game. In addition, QB Matty Ryan is 12-4 ATS at home with revenge off a loss in his NFL career. With Minny 1-12 ATS away off a division game when taking on .600 or greater foes, and 5-17 ATS away as dogs after Green Bay gatherings, the Birds of Prey look to make our day in this Viking letdown.

CINCINNATI over St. Louis by 6The Bengals couldn’t avoid the inevitable ‘bubble burst’ letdown as they came up a fi eld goal short at Arizona last week. Still, they managed to grab the loot while still holding a three-game lead over Pittsburgh in the AFC North division chase. The question for Lovie Smith now becomes one of motivation, especially with a quarterback in Andy Dalton that is just 20-18 SU and 18-18-2 ATS from Game Nine out in his NFL career. Making matters worse, Smith is a tepid 24-22 SU and 19-26-1 ATS as a non-division host, including 7-17 ATS when the foe is off a loss. Tie that into Cincy’s 1-5 ATS home record in games before facing the Browns when facing a sub .500 opponent and it appears Jeff Fisher’s 13-5 ATS road dog log against opponents off a pair of losses is in good hands here today.

INDIANAPOLIS over Tampa Bay by 7 What can you say about QB Jameis Winston and the job he’s done with the Bucs thus far this season? From a 2-win team last year to fi ve victories thus far, the crab crook appears on his way to NFL Rookie of the Year honors. But before he does, he’ll need to fend off winning teams down the stretch portion of the season, starting with the Colts this Sunday. Indy comes in 12-2 ATS off an away game versus an opponent off an away game. In addition, backup QB Matt Hasselbeck enters 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS versus NFC South opposition, including 7-0 SUATS off a non-division contest. Only the Bucs’ 6-0 ATS mark against an AFC opponent off a SUATS win keeps us from snapping the rubber band. Grab the crab and run with the Ponies.

NY Giants over WASHINGTON by 6Despite being outgained in eight of their 10 games this season, because of the neighborhood in which they reside, the 5-5 Giants fi nd themselves leaders in the crumbling NFC East. But don’t tell that to Tom Coughlin. All he sees is a healthy quarterback in Eli Manning and an opponent he’s knocked the snot out of in each of the last fi ve meetings (5-0 SUATS). The G-Men come in 7-1 ATS away between home games versus an opponent off a loss, and 6-1 ATS when facing a foe with quintuple revenge. On the other side of the fi eld, the Redskins are 1-7 ATS as home dogs off a loss of 21 or more points. Until the defense is exposed, for now it ain’t broke – and we’re not about to try and fi x it. Big Blue rises to the occasion once again today.

3� BEST BET

We’re still trying to fi gure out who died and proclaimed Oakland to be a good team. Looking back, we fi nd the Raiders have been installed as favorites on four occasions this season – or four times as often as they had been the previous two years combined. And they have yet to win a game when expected to do so, losing all four times straight up as chalk. They blew as road favorites at Detroit last week and, still not convinced, the proclamation-makers have come right back and installed them as road chalk once again this week – in another 10 AM body clock start time to boot. Jeez Louise, trust us… it’s okay to raise the fl ag and admit you’ve made a mistake! The Titans check in with a glitzy 5-0 ATS log after playing on Thursday when facing sub .500 non-division opponents. They are also 7-2 ATS the last nine games as a host in this series. Unlike those who still have an infatuation for the Black-n-Silver, we say it’s time to ‘remember the Titans’ and forget all about the Raiders today. The Clincher: Oakland is an ignominious 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss when facing sub .500 opponents.

TENNESSEE over Oakland by 8


VegasINSIDER.com

Buffalo over KANSAS CITY by 3It seems as if stepping in front of the Chiefs at this juncture is like strapping oneself onto the tracks in front of an oncoming freight train. We tried it last week with San Diego as our featured play on these pages and were promptly severed at the jugular. Well, we’ve had a transfusion, and we’re hopping back on the same track with Buffalo as our running mate this week. The Bills travel to Andy’s place off a hard-fought loss Monday night at New England looking to reclaim their spot in the Wild Card, the one that was wrested away from them by this same KC squad just last week. Buffy enters 8-1 ATS away off an away game versus an opponent off an away game, while the Chiefs are an icy 1-6 ATS as a host in this series. With Kansas City caught in the middle of a live ‘Classic Division Sandwich’ (see Marc’s 2002 BLACK BOOK for more details), we’re going head-on with the light at the end of the tunnel. We just hope it’s not another 33-point train coming down the track.

NY JETS Over Miami by 3 Talk abut something being rotten in the AFC East, check this out: The Dolphins are 5-10 SUATS versus greater than .333 competition the past two seasons; the Jets counter at 3-15 SU and 7-11 ATS against teams of the same ilk over the same span. So who do we saddle up with in this stink-a-thon? We could say Miami but its 0-9 ATS record away between home games, coupled with QB Ryan Tannehill’s putrid 7-15 SUATS mark in division games, including 0-6 SUATS last six, is enough to keep us up at night. Then there is the Jets’ jaw-dropping 3-26 ATS ledger as a home favorite between away games when facing an opponent off a loss that snaps us to our senses. The only good thing to come out of this mess is Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 14-7 ATS career log as a division favorite, and the Flyboys’ 4-0 ATS mark of late in this series. Other than that, you’re on your own.

JACKSONVILLE over San Diego by 7It would be easy to dismiss the Jaguars this intra-conference clash today. After all, they are off a pair of wins for only the second time in fi ve years and they bring a 1-5 ATS mark at home of a home game into this affair. Toss in the Chargers’ mind-blowing 24-3-1 ATS all-time record in games versus AFC South opponents and we’re supposed to be on San Diego like Pee Wee Herman on a hooker each year at the Exotica convention in Miami Beach. But not today. Not when the all-knowing database informs us that NFL home teams off a SU Thursday win are 29-16-1 ATS when hosting a foe off a loss, including 18-4 SUATS in games in which the foe is off a loss of more than 8 points. With Diego a money-defying 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games, and owners of a league-worst -1.4 overall net Yards Per Rush attack, it’s Jack or bust for us today.

Arizona over SAN FRANCISCO by 3At fi rst glance this appears to be the mismatch of the week – until you glance again. We realize fully this is a pairing of the best team in the NFC West against the worst. And the worst team is relying on a backup quarterback (Blaine Gabbert) that is just 4-11 SUATS at home as a starter in this league. But like a good bottle of vino, it’s a fi ne line that separates sour grapes from vintage wine. And our reliable winemaker – aka the well-oiled machine – points out the fact that the last 11 NFL double-digit division road favorites are just 3-8 ATS. Toss in the fact that double-digit division road favorites off win are just 7-12 ATS when facing a foe off a loss, including 3-9 ATS in games




VegasINSIDER.comin which the road chalk is not undefeated, and you can suddenly smell an unpleasant aroma. With Zona sitting atop the division with a cushy two-game lead, and having a same-season revenge rematch with St. Louis on deck, the points are the play in this division vineyard special.

Monday, November 30Baltimore over CLEVELAND by 3

OMG. The 3-7 Ravens take to the road sans QB Joe Flacco, RB Justin Forsett and WR Steve Smith and we see them leaving the Dawg Pound with a win on Monday night? Yep, and we’ll even take the urine test. We’re fully aware that Cleveland is 5-0 ATS off a Bye week when facing a sub .500 opponent. And that new Baltimore QB Matt Schaub is 1-7 SUATS as a road dog versus rested foes in his NFL career. For openers, it’s a matter of revenge for John Harbaugh, as his team was apple-carted in overtime as 6.5-point home chalk last month by Cleveland. It was the Browns’ last victory and it dropped Harbaugh to 13-2 SU in this series. Meanwhile, the Black Birds are 6-1 ATS away off three straight home games when facing a division opponent, and 6-1 SUATS on this fi eld under Harbaugh. Cleveland had decided it was time for Johnny Clipboard to show his stuff but after naming him the starter, a Manziel ‘party video’ surfaced and the Browns quickly demoted him to 3rd string (Josh McCown will start). With Cleveland riding a 5-game losing skid, and a ‘leaking oil’ favorite to boot, expect the Ravens to improve to 10-2 ATS In their last 12 Monday-nighters while the Brownies lose SUATS for the third straight game in Monday night frays here tonight. Now pass the spit bottle.

4� BEST BET

Now that both teams appear back on track and ready to make a run to the postseason, it’s time to get the scalpel out and look inside each team’s body of work. Seattle is outgaining foes 111 YPG since Game Seven of the season, while Pittsburgh is 74 YPG better than its opponents over the same course. The caveat is the fact that Ben Roethlisberger did not start in two of the last four games for the Steelers. His counterpart, Russell Wilson, brings a stellar 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS career mark versus Super Bowl winning quarterbacks into this contest, but only a 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS log in his last three matchups. In addition, the Seahawks are just 3-7 ATS in the third of three straight home games, including 0-4 ATS the last four versus non-division foes, and 0-2 SUATS when hosting a rested opponent. Meanwhile, the Steel Curtain rises in games against NFC opposition off a win, going 5-0 SUATS in its last fi ve gatherings. It’s Big Ben time and we’ve got our clocks set. The Clincher: Roethlisberger is 19-8 SU and 20-7 ATS as a dog versus foes off a win in his NFL career, including 5-1 SUATS versus the NFC.

Pittsburgh over SEATTLE by 6

New England over DENVER by 1The Pats are only the third team in the history of the NFL with a 10-0 or greater record to make a Sunday night appearance. Ironically New England was one (-25 home in 2007 versus Philadelphia in a 31-28 win) and Denver the other (-13.5 at San Diego in 1998 in a 31-16 victory). Tonight Tom Brady takes on Brock Osweiler in an odd pairing with New England hoping to keep its perfect record intact. According to the well-oiled database, that could be a problem given the fact that away teams with an undefeated record, off a Monday night division win, are just 7-11 SU since 1980. Toss in the Pats’ 4-3 SU and 1-6 ATS away record between home games when facing a non-division opponent and the situation worsens. The Broncos’ 5-1 SUATS mark as non-division home dogs when sporting a .666 or greater record should be enough to keep the Brady bunch up at night. So what is an Osweiler, you ask? Try the only starting Denver quarterback not to turn the ball over in its last 14 games. After nine games of dealing with the most turnover-prone quarterback in the NFL this season, B.O. was mistake-free in his fi rst start at Chicago last week. FYI: the Pats are 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS In their last ten games when failing to force a turnover. You know the saying – forewarned is forearmed.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM MARC LAWRENCE AND THE ENTIRE PLAYBOOK STAFF!


GAME MATCHUPS KEY OVER/UNDER STATS

2 0 1 5 N AT I O N A L F O O T B A L L L E A G U E – W E E K T W E LV E

THE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP: O/U STYLE

PhiladelphiaDETROIT

CarolinaDALLAS

ChicagoGREEN BAY

New OrleansHOUSTON

MinnesotaATLANTA

St Louis CINCINNATI

Tampa Bay INDIANAPOLIS

NY GiantsWASHINGTON

4-0 O/U aft allow 40+ pts... 8-1 O/U Gm 11... 6-1 O/U vs NFC North... 4-1 O/U Thursdays vs non-div... 7-2 O/U aft score 17 < pts 4-0 O/U vs Phil (64.2)... 14-2 O/U aft allow 13 < pts... 5-1 O/U 2nd of 3 straight HG... 4-1 O/U Thursdays... 9-3 O/U vs NFC East

5-1 O/U 1st of BB RG... 4-1 O/U away vs NFC East... 4-1 O/U aft Wash... but 1-6 O/U off SU win 28 > pts... 1-4 O/U Thursdays5-1 O/U home vs NFC South... 3-1 O/U Thursdays... 3-1-1 O/U Game 11... but 0-3 O/U L3 vs Car (31.3)... 3-7 O/U H off BB RG

4-0 O/U L4 vs GB (59.8)... 3-0 O/U Thursdays L3Y... 5-1 O/U off non-conf HG... but 1-3 O/U aft Den... 3-7 O/U as div RD’s > 6 pts3-0 O/U Thursdays L3Y... 4-1 O/U bef Det... but 0-3 O/U as HF’s 9 > pts TY... 1-5 O/U Game 11... 1-5 O/U in 3rd straight div gm

10-0 O/U as non-div dogs 2 > pts... 8-1 O/U aft Bye... 4-1 O/U Game 11... 4-1 O/U vs .500 < opp... but 0-7 O/U away vs AFC South4-0-1 O/U off home dog win... 3-0 O/U in 2nd of BB HG... 5-1 O/U bef Buf... 3-1 O/U aft NYJ... but 0-4 O/U as non-div HF’s

3-1 O/U bef Sea... but 0-5 O/U away vs NFC South... 1-5 O/U aft GB... 1-5 O/U Game 11... 1-4-1 O/U as non-div RD’s 4 < pts 4-1 O/U aft Ind... 4-1 O/U non-div HF’s 4 < pts... but 0-4 O/U bef TBay... 1-5 O/U Game 11... 1-4 O/U L5 vs Min (43.0)

6-0 O/U Game 11... 6-1 O/U off non-conf RG... but 0-6 O/U vs AFC North... 0-4 O/U bef Ariz... 3-9 O/U in 2nd of BB RG 6-1-1 O/U bef div RG... 5-1 O/U as non-div HF’s 6 > pts... 4-1 O/U L5 non-conf HG... 6-2 O/U aft Ariz... but 0-3 O/U L3 vs Stl (33.0)

4-0 O/U L4 vs Ind (55.0)... 7-2 O/U vs AFC South... 4-1 O/U aft score 35 > pts... 4-1 O/U vs .500 < opp... but 0-6 O/U Game 115-1 O/U L6 non-conf HG... 4-1 O/U HF’s off road dog win... 4-1 O/U off 3+ ATS wins... 3-1-1 O/U aft Atl... but 1-4 O/U Game 11

5-2-2 O/U Game 11... but 1-7 O/U away aft Bye... 1-3 O/U aft NEng... 1-3 O/U div RD/RF 3 < pts... 2-6 O/U L8 vs Wash (41.5) 0-4 O/U aft Car... 1-5 O/U home bef Monday gm... 1-7 O/U div HF/HD 3 < pts... 2-6 O/U off SU loss 28 > pts... 2-6 O/U bef Dal

The fi rst 8 games of the NFL schedule are listed below. As always, the number listed fi rst is the ‘OVER’ and the number listed second is the ‘UNDER’. *This week’s TREND play: Philadelphia @ Detroit ’OVER’ the TOTAL.

AN 'OVER / UNDER' REPORT ON THIS WEEK'S NFL CARDBY VICTOR KING

Below are the current Top 20 Contestants from the 2015 Wise Guys Contest – One Point Single Plays Listed

DOLPHINS (+3.5)

Stanford (-3.5)

SEAHAWKS (-4.5)

BROWNS (-2)

BUCCANEERS (+3)

Memphis (-21.5)

Michigan (-1.5)

BROWNS (-2)

STEELERS (+4.5)

REDSKINS (+2)

14-6-2 / 8-2-1 / 22 pts

11-11 / 5-6 / 16 pts

14-7-1 / 9-2 / 23 pts

11-11 / 5-6 / 16 pts

16-6 / 9-2 / 25 pts

13-9 / 7-4 / 20 pts

14-8 / 7-4 / 21 pts

10-12 / 6-5 / 16 pts

14-7-1 / 6-4-1 / 20 pts

12-8-2 / 6-4-1 / 18 pts

WISE GUYS CONTESTA $10,000 Contest Sponsored by PLAYBOOK.com

Now in its 30th year, the WISE GUYS CONTEST is a $10,000 winners-take-all handicapping event. All plays are graded against the lines posted after 4:00 PM Mondays on the WISE GUYS CONTEST page. Each week below we’ll post Single Plays from the Top 20 point-earners. Following the play is their overall Win-Loss record / Double Play record / Total Points earned to date.

Big Board [email protected]

Billy The Kidplaybook.com

Bob Dietzintegritysports.com

Brad Diamonddiamondquickpicks.com

Brad Powersbradpowerssports.com

California Sportscaliforniasports.com

CfbRefStats.comcfbrefstats.com

Cincinnati Kidplaybook.com

Fairway Jayvegassportszone.com

Hurricane Billplaybook.com

Texas Tech (+1.5)

Ohio State (+1.5)

Boise State (-7.5)

Virginia (+3.5)

Old Dominion (+4)

San Diego St (-17.5)

Byu (-3)

Ohio State (+1.5)

BUCCANEERS (+3)

COWBOYS (Pk)

12-9-1 / 6-4-1 / 18 pts

11-10-1 / 5-5-1 / 16 pts

11-11 / 5-6 / 16 pts

12-10 / *7-4 / 20 pts

16-6 / 9-2 / 25 pts

14-8 / 7-4 / 21 pts

12-10 / *7-4 / 20 pts

10-11-1 / 9-2 / 19 pts

13-8-1 / 8-3 / 21 pts

14-7-1 / 7-4 / 21 pts

Joe Nelsonnellysports.com

Ken Thomsonsportsxradio.com

Ross Benjaminrossbenjaminsports.com

Scott Landauscottlandau.com

Stan Lisowskiplaybook.com

Steve Merrilprosportsinfo.com

Stormin Normanfreesportsinfo.com

TD Tonyashnetwork.com

Victor Kingplaybook.com

Weekly Wizardplaybook.com


2015 COLLEGE & PRO FOOTBALL - NOVEMBER 24-30

A REVIEW OF THE CURRENT STAR-RATED BEST BET SELECTIONSTHIS WEEK'S BEST BETS

FOR WEEK ENDING MONDAY,NOVEMBER 30, 2015 4� BEST BET3� BEST BET 5� BEST BET

COLLEGE

NFL

UPSET GAME

NC STATE NEBRASKA FLORIDA

TITANS STEELERS EAGLES

MARSHALL“Your purchase of the information in this publication is intended strictly for the private use of the subscriber and/or purchaser. The redistribution of any por tion of this information, in any form, without the express written consent of Preferred Picks® (or Playbook® or Playbook.com®) is strictly prohibited and is subject to the laws of the jurisdictions involved.”

SUBSCRIBE TO PLAYBOOK TODAY: 1.800.752.9266

Listed next to the games below are two entries: OL is the SportsOptions.com opening line on the contest and PB is the PLAYBOOK margin. You have a PLAYBOOK Recommendation whenever our predicted margin of victory is 6 or more points off the opening line. Remember, opening

lines are subject to change during the week so always check YOUR CURRENT LINE against the PLAYBOOK line to determine a fi nal play.

OL PB OL PB OL PB OL PB2’

4

7

Pk

1

3

6

11

BOWLING GREEN 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE BALL ST OHIO U 7:30 PM NO ILLINOIS ESPNU

101 102

103 104

21 16

13 8

PHILADELPHIA 12:30 PM DETROIT FOXCAROLINA 4:30 PM DALLAS CBS

CHICAGO 8:30 PM GREEN BAY NBC

SOUTH FLORIDA 7:30 PM C FLORIDA ESPNTEXAS TECH 7:30 PM TEXAS FS1

105 106

107 108

109 110

111 112

113 114

Pk

11

1

3

NL 27

1 7

2’

10

115 116

117 118

119 120

121 122

123 124

125 126

127 128

129 130

131 132

133 134

135 136

9

24 27

4

13’ 17

6’ 11

1 3

MARSHALL 12:00 PM W KENTUCKY FS1

IOWA 3:30 PM TIME CHANGE NEBRASKA ABC

MIAMI FLA 12:00 PM PITTSBURGH ESPN2

MASSACHUSETTS 4:30 PM TIME CHANGE BUFFALO ESPNU

KENT ST 12:00 PM AKRON

TROY 2:00 PM TIME CHANGE GEORGIA ST

W MICHIGAN 12:00 PM TOLEDO CBSSN

E MICHIGAN 1:00 PM TIME CHANGEC MICHIGAN

MISSOURI 2:30 PM ARKANSAS CBS

NAVY 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE HOUSTON ABC

TULSA 8:00 PM TIME CHANGETULANE ESPNU

10’ 6

1

3

6 10

137 138

139 140

141 142

143 144

145 146

147 148

149 150

151 152

153 154

155 156

157 158

159 160

161 162

163 164

165 166

167 168

169 170

171 172

173 174

175 176

16’ 11

3

20’ 14

NL

3 3

6

6’ 1

OHIO ST 12:00 PM MICHIGAN ABC

UL-LAFAYETTE 2:00 PM TIME CHANGE APPALACHIAN ST

LOUISVILLE 12:00 PM KENTUCKY SEC

PENN ST 3:30 PM TIME CHANGE MICHIGAN ST ESPN

CINCINNATI 12:00 PM E CAROLINA CBSSN

CONNECTICUT 7:00 PM TEMPLE ESPNU

IOWA ST 12:00 PM WEST VIRGINIA FS1

DUKE 12:30 PM TIME CHANGE WAKE FOREST

BOSTON COLLEGE 12:30 PM TIME CHANGE SYRACUSE

INDIANA 12:00 PM PURDUE BTN

FLA ATLANTIC 12:00 PM OLD DOMINION

VANDERBILT 4:00 PM TIME CHANGE TENNESSEE SEC

SOUTH ALABAMA 2:00 PM GA SOUTHERN

UNLV 2:00 PM WYOMING

MIDDLE TENN 2:30 PM UTSA

COLORADO 2:30 PM TIME CHANGE UTAH PAC12

4 8

NL 4

12 20

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 24

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 26

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 27

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 28

33’ 36

8 1

NL

6

1

7

21 28

4

3

7 ?

1

4

12 16

13’ 6

NL

16’ 16

177 178

179 180

181 182

183 184

185 186

187 188

189 190

191 192

193 194

195 196

197 198

199 200

201 202

203 204

205 206

207 208

209 210

211 212

213 214

215 216

217 218

BYU 3:30 PM UTAH ST CBSSN

VIRGINIA TECH 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE VIRGINIA ESPNU N CAROLINA ABC 3:30 PM NC STATE ESPN2

CHARLOTTE 3:30 PM RICE

MARYLAND 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE RUTGERS BTN

FLORIDA ST 7:30 PM TIME CHANGE FLORIDA ESPN

GEORGIA 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE GA TECH ESPN2

KANSAS ST 4:00 PM TIME CHANGE KANSAS FS1

TEXAS A&M 7:30 PM TIME CHANGE LSU

NORTHWESTERN 3:30 PM at Soldier Field ILLINOIS ESPNU

ALABAMA 3:30 PM AUBURN CBS

ARIZONA ST 10:00 PM TIME CHANGE CALIFORNIA FS1

TEXAS ST 5:00 PM IDAHO

SOUTHERN MISS 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE LOUISIANA TECH

SMU 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE MEMPHIS ESPNN

CLEMSON 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE S CAROLINA ESPN

UTEP 3:30 PM TIME CHANGE NORTH TEXAS FSN

WISCONSIN 3:30 PM TIME CHANGE MINNESOTA BTN OKLAHOMA 8:00 PM TIME CHANGE OKLAHOMA ST ABC

OLE MISS 7:15 PM TIME CHANGEMISS ST ESPN2

NOTRE DAME 7:30 PM STANFORD FOX

10’ 16

1

4

5 10

20 14

5

3

3’

3

13 8

4 1

2’

3

6 3

21’ 17

17’ 10

2’

3

2’

6

1

3

251 252

253 254

255 256

257 258

259 260

261 262

263 264

265 266

267 268

269 270

271 272

273 274

NEW ORLEANS 1:00 PM HOUSTON

MINNESOTA 1:00 PM ATLANTA

ST. LOUIS 1:00 PM CINCINNATI

TAMPA BAY 1:00 PM INDIANAPOLIS

NY GIANTS 1:00 PM WASHINGTON

OAKLAND 1:00 PM TENNESSEE

BUFFALO 1:00 PM KANSAS CITY

MIAMI 1:00 PM NY JETS

SAN DIEGO 1:00 PMJACKSONVILLE

ARIZONA 4:05 PM SAN FRANCISCO

PITTSBURGH 4:25 PM SEATTLENEW ENGLAND 8:30 PM DENVER NBC

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 29

ARKANSAS ST 4:00 PM TIME CHANGE NEW MEXICO STNEVADA ESPN2 10:45 PM TIME CHANGE SAN DIEGO ST AIR FORCE ESPNU 10:15 PM TIME CHANGE NEW MEXICO

UCLA ABC 3:30 PM TIME CHANGE USC ESPN2

COLORADO ST 9:00 PM FRESNO ST CBSSN

UL-MONROE 11:00 PM TIME CHANGE HAWAII

219 220

221 222

223 224

225 226

227 228

229 230

16’ 13

3’

3

7 6

9’

3

9’

NL

3

2

9

2’

Pk

2

NL

12

6

8

3

1

6

6

7

6

8

3

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30

BALTIMORE 8:30 PM CLEVELAND ESPN

275 276 Pk

3

�

�

�

�

�

�

9 12

�

10’

3

5’ 10

WASHINGTON ST 3:30 PM WASHINGTON FOXOREGON ST 3:30 PM OREGON

BOISE ST 3:30 PM SAN JOSE ST CBSSN

BAYLOR 7:30 PM TCU ESPN

3 3

3’ 7

310’

6

4

13

17 21

november 24-30, 2015 spartans top buckeyes in college game

Documents