november (2019) - lr global bangladesh · instance, debutant seapearl topped the chart with an 84%...

8
NOVEMBER (2019) 1 November was a volatile month for the stock market as the DSEX fluctuated, ranging between 4,678 to 4,781 points (around 2.2%). However, the index ultimately inched up by 1.04%, with the top twenty gainers having adverse fundamentals. For instance, debutant SEAPEARL topped the chart with an 84% price gain despite registering a 14% EPS decline in Q1. Similarly, textile companies such as AL-HAJTEX (factory operations suspended), TOSRIFA (Q1 EPS declined to BDT -0.72 from BDT 0.11), MITHUNKNIT (factory operations suspended), and ZAHEENSPIN (Q1 EPS declined by -64%) also gained materially in value. A total of 82 companies registered double digit positive gain this month, with the contribution of the top twenty gainers being around 0.71%. Export growth has been sluggish due to a comparatively strong BDT and erosion in RMG exports while remittance has continued to enjoy a high inflow backed by cash incentive. In the first four months of the current fiscal year, the net sale of NSCs is down by 70% compared to that of last year due to automation and taxation reforms. While this will reduce the weighted average cost of fund for the government, increased government borrowing from banks to finance the budget deficit will put more pressure on the cash crunch banks. Moreover, as defaulted loan conditions keep worsening, talks about forming a public asset management company have been making the rounds. MATERIAL MARKET UPDATE KEY NEWS UPDATE MACROECONOMY Foreign debt payment shoots up by 24% in Q1: https://bit.ly/2QTQL6G Budget deficit hits 11-yr high of over BDT 1.1 trillion in FY ’19: https://bit.ly/33sM6ek Government’s borrowing from banks spirals, borrowing already over 92% of its target: https://bit.ly/2OPLryp Exports slump 17% in October: https://bit.ly/2Dq432Q Remittance soars 32% in October: https://bit.ly/2R1F9yr October inflation declines to 8-month low of 5.47%: https://bit.ly/2OrXK4X Defaulted loans hit all-time high of BDT 1.16 trillion: https://bit.ly/37Kx0Eq Government mulls AMC to cut NPLs: https://bit.ly/2qIYEkQ 18,000 Bangladeshis deported from KSA since January: https://bit.ly/2rxZr82 CAPITAL MARKET Foreign funds in stocks continue to fall for eight months: https://bit.ly/37GHPr7 Shenzhen, Dhaka bourses’ joint index by December: https://bit.ly/35HXEw4 50% circuit breaker imposed on first two days stocks trading: https://bit.ly/2R7pJcb Insider trading by Ring Shine sponsor: Prime bourse smells a rat: https://bit.ly/2rvXDwk Main bourse suspends one for uploading wrong Earnings Per Share (EPS) of ACI: https://bit.ly/2OqNqdy Listed textile, RMG companies in a tight spot: https://bit.ly/35JD522 Most non-life insurers post higher EPS: https://bit.ly/2DzZ7sm SC orders GP to pay BDT 20 billion in three months: https://bit.ly/2Ydn4iJ INTERNATIONAL: US consumer confidence falls for fourth consecutive month: https://cnb.cx/34DnTnc UK retail sales hit by surprise downturn despite big discounting: https://bit.ly/2OAw5PA Economic slowdown in India and China may hit Bangladesh: https://bit.ly/2q7ALCZ Saudi Aramco to supply LNG to Bangladesh as part of power deal: https://reut.rs/37Sv0Kv Two Factors To Upend Oil Markets In 2020: https://bit.ly/2Y4drTb

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Page 1: NOVEMBER (2019) - LR Global Bangladesh · instance, debutant SEAPEARL topped the chart with an 84% price gain despite registering a 14% EPS decline in Q1. Similarly, textile companies

NOVEMBER (2019)

1

November was a volatile month for the stock market as the DSEX fluctuated, ranging between 4,678 to 4,781 points (around 2.2%). However, the index ultimately inched up by 1.04%, with the top twenty gainers having adverse fundamentals. For instance, debutant SEAPEARL topped the chart with an 84% price gain despite registering a 14% EPS decline in Q1. Similarly, textile companies such as AL-HAJTEX (factory operations suspended), TOSRIFA (Q1 EPS declined to BDT -0.72 from BDT 0.11), MITHUNKNIT (factory operations suspended), and ZAHEENSPIN (Q1 EPS declined by -64%) also gained materially in value. A total of 82 companies registered double digit positive gain this month, with the contribution of the top twenty gainers being around 0.71%.

Export growth has been sluggish due to a comparatively strong BDT and erosion in RMG exports while remittance has continued to enjoy a high inflow backed by cash incentive. In the first four months of the current fiscal year, the net sale of NSCs is down by 70% compared to that of last year due to automation and taxation reforms. While this will reduce the weighted average cost of fund for the government, increased government borrowing from banks to finance the budget deficit will put more pressure on the cash crunch banks. Moreover, as defaulted loan conditions keep worsening, talks about forming a public asset management company have been making the rounds.

MATERIAL MARKET UPDATE

KEY NEWS UPDATE

MACROECONOMY

Foreign debt payment shoots up by 24% in Q1: https://bit.ly/2QTQL6G

Budget deficit hits 11-yr high of over BDT 1.1 trillion in FY ’19: https://bit.ly/33sM6ek

Government’s borrowing from banks spirals, borrowing already over 92% of its target: https://bit.ly/2OPLryp

Exports slump 17% in October: https://bit.ly/2Dq432Q

Remittance soars 32% in October: https://bit.ly/2R1F9yr

October inflation declines to 8-month low of 5.47%: https://bit.ly/2OrXK4X

Defaulted loans hit all-time high of BDT 1.16 trillion: https://bit.ly/37Kx0Eq

Government mulls AMC to cut NPLs: https://bit.ly/2qIYEkQ

18,000 Bangladeshis deported from KSA since January: https://bit.ly/2rxZr82

CAPITAL MARKET

Foreign funds in stocks continue to fall for eight months: https://bit.ly/37GHPr7

Shenzhen, Dhaka bourses’ joint index by December: https://bit.ly/35HXEw4

50% circuit breaker imposed on first two days stocks trading: https://bit.ly/2R7pJcb Insider trading by Ring Shine sponsor: Prime bourse smells a rat: https://bit.ly/2rvXDwk

Main bourse suspends one for uploading wrong Earnings Per Share (EPS) of ACI: https://bit.ly/2OqNqdy

Listed textile, RMG companies in a tight spot: https://bit.ly/35JD522

Most non-life insurers post higher EPS: https://bit.ly/2DzZ7sm

SC orders GP to pay BDT 20 billion in three months: https://bit.ly/2Ydn4iJ

INTERNATIONAL:

US consumer confidence falls for fourth consecutive month: https://cnb.cx/34DnTnc

UK retail sales hit by surprise downturn despite big discounting: https://bit.ly/2OAw5PA

Economic slowdown in India and China may hit Bangladesh: https://bit.ly/2q7ALCZ

Saudi Aramco to supply LNG to Bangladesh as part of power deal: https://reut.rs/37Sv0Kv

Two Factors To Upend Oil Markets In 2020: https://bit.ly/2Y4drTb

Page 2: NOVEMBER (2019) - LR Global Bangladesh · instance, debutant SEAPEARL topped the chart with an 84% price gain despite registering a 14% EPS decline in Q1. Similarly, textile companies

NOVEMBER (2019)

2

We are taking selective positions in well-capitalized and focused companies and also evaluating discounted and transparent

mutual funds to gain exposure. We have also increased our positions in bonds, mutual funds and reduced our positions in

banks and telecommunications during the month.

LR GLOBAL PORTFOLIO UPDATE

Our portfolio is UNDERWEIGHT in all sectors compared to the benchmark index, except the pharmaceuticals, telecommunication, mutual funds, and tannery sector. We are currently maintaining a high proportion of cash as it is generating a better return compared to the market itself. Moreover, we are also well positioned to buy undervalued securities when appropriate.

Given the current bearish conditions in the market,

Source: LR Global Research

0.3%0.3%

1.6%1.6%

5.2% 3.0%3.4% 3.3%

3.3% 3.5%5.8%

4.1%

6.4%6.0%

6.0%6.5%

10.3%8.6%

7.7%9.0%

25.0%24.5%

24.8% 29.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oct-19 Nov-19

Changes in portfolio market value this monthCash

Pharmaceuticals

Pre-IPO/Non-listed Private Company

Telecommunication

Mutual Funds

Food & Allied

Tannery

Others

Industrial

Bank

NBFI

Bond

Bank, 3.04%

Bond, 0.30%

Cash, 29.49% Foods & Allied, 5.98%

Industrial, 3.33%

Mutual Fund, 6.48%

NBFI, 1.60%

Pharmaceuticals, 24.51%Pre-IPO/Non-listed Private

Company, 9.00%

Tannery, 4.13%

Telecommunication, 8.62%

Others, 3.50

Sectoral Compostion of Portfolio at Market Value

Bank

Bond

Cash

Foods & Allied

Industrial

Mutual Fund

NBFI

Pharmaceuticals

Pre-IPO/Non-listed Private Company

Tannery

Telecommunication

Others

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Ban

k

Ind

ust

rial

NB

FI

Foo

d &

Alli

ed IT

Mu

tual

Fu

nd

s

Ph

arm

aceu

tica

ls

Tan

ner

y

Tele

com

mu

nic

atio

n

Text

ile

Cas

h

Sectorwise InvestmentMarket Weight LR Global Fund Weight

Page 3: NOVEMBER (2019) - LR Global Bangladesh · instance, debutant SEAPEARL topped the chart with an 84% price gain despite registering a 14% EPS decline in Q1. Similarly, textile companies

NOVEMBER (2019)

3

Note: The most recent dividend data used for NCCBLMF1 is for 2018 while the rest are for 2019.

LR GLOBAL PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

Cumulative Dividend Yield DBH1STMF GREENDELMF AIBL1STIMF MBL1STMF LRGLOBMF1 NCCBLMF1

5 year 42.5% 45.1% 49.7% 48.9% 49.0% 44.3%

4 Year 33.7% 35.3% 46.7% 45.1% 45.8% 37.0%

3 Year 25.2% 26.5% 29.6% 30.2% 29.9% 26.7%

2 Year 19.6% 21.1% 21.0% 21.1% 23.8% 22.1%

1 Year 9.3% 10.4% 10.8% 11.4% 5.9% 8.8%

Cumulative Div. Yield (Annualized) DBH1STMF GREENDELMF AIBL1STIMF MBL1STMF LRGLOBMF1 NCCBLMF1

5 year 8.5% 9.0% 9.9% 9.8% 9.8% 8.9%

4 Year 8.4% 8.8% 11.7% 11.3% 11.5% 9.2%

3 Year 8.4% 8.8% 9.9% 10.1% 10.0% 8.9%

2 Year 9.8% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 11.9% 11.0%

1 Year 9.3% 10.4% 10.8% 11.4% 5.9% 8.8%

Value Addition History 1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5 year 6 year 7 year 8 year 9 year Since

inception Cumulative Return LR Global

-2.55% -10.52% 13.49% 17.22% 26.14% 38.04% 42.29% 40.14% 35.34% 72.73%

Cumulative Return Benchmark

-9.79% -24.58% 0.84% 5.23% -5.72% 24.70% 9.29% -14.92% -31.35% -10.34%

LR Global Value Addition 7.23% 14.07% 12.65% 11.98% 31.86% 13.34% 32.99% 55.06% 66.69% 83.07%

Annualized Return LR Global

-2.55% -5.40% 4.31% 4.05% 4.75% 5.52% 5.17% 4.31% 3.42% 5.82%

Annualized Return Benchmark

-9.79% -13.16% 0.28% 1.28% -1.17% 3.75% 1.28% -2.00% -4.09% -1.12%

LR Global Value Addition 7.23% 7.75% 4.03% 2.77% 5.92% 1.77% 3.89% 6.31% 7.51% 6.95%

Beta (LR Global vs Benchmark)

0.40 0.41 0.44 0.44 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.46 0.46

Annualized Alpha over benchmark

-1.39% -2.64% 1.66% 0.97% 2.98% 1.37% 2.12% 2.59% 2.84% 3.89%

Dividend History DBH1STMF GREENDELMF AIBL1STIMF MBL1STMF LRGLOBMF1 NCCBLMF1

Fund Inception Date 4-Feb-10 23-Sep-10 6-Jan-11 3-Feb-11 15-Sep-11 24-May-12

Initial Fund Size (BDT Mn) 1,200 1,500 1,000 1,000 3,000 1,000

Total Dividend Disbursed (BDT Mn) 667.20 472.50 415.00 370.00 1,250.33 434.01

% Cash Dividend to Initial PAR 56% 32% 42% 37% 42% 43%

LR Global managed funds have consistently beat the market with over 40% cash dividends. Despite a flat market since 2010, LR

Global managed funds have materially outperformed the benchmark index.

Our funds perform resiliently even when the market experiences a bearish phase. For instance, DBH1STMF and GREENDELMF

successfully disbursed attractive dividends with their commencement in 2010 even though the market crashed in that same year.

The cumulative dividend yield of our funds in the last five years indicate that our unitholders have been the recipient of attractive

returns as a result of investing in our mutual funds.

Our ten years of tested investment process has generated attractive returns, including attractive cash dividends. Our tested

investment process includes security selection, asset allocation and an ongoing risk management process.

Page 4: NOVEMBER (2019) - LR Global Bangladesh · instance, debutant SEAPEARL topped the chart with an 84% price gain despite registering a 14% EPS decline in Q1. Similarly, textile companies

NOVEMBER (2019)

4

Weekly Fund Performance during the Month

31-Oct-19 7-Nov-19 Change 14-Nov-19 Change 21-Nov-19 Change 28-Nov-19 Change

DSEX 4,682.90 4,771.92 1.9% 4,710.37 -1.3% 4,706.67 -0.1% 4,731.44 0.5%

DS30 1,627.75 1,657.92 1.9% 1,638.25 -1.2% 1,650.63 0.8% 1,647.71 -0.2%

Top 10 large cap (BDT bn)

1,347.28 1,349.68 0.2% 1,333.54 -1.2% 1,361.46 2.1% 1,338.67 -1.7%

DBH1STMF 9.75 9.68 -0.7% 9.60 -0.8% 9.62 0.2% 9.57 -0.5%

GREENDELMF 9.67 9.6 -0.7% 9.52 -0.8% 9.57 0.5% 9.5 -0.7%

AIBL1STIMF 9.95 9.87 -0.8% 9.81 -0.6% 9.86 0.5% 9.79 -0.7%

MBL1STMF 9.95 9.87 -0.8% 9.78 -0.9% 9.82 0.4% 9.75 -0.7%

LRGLOBMF1 10.28 10.21 -0.7% 10.13 -0.8% 10.19 0.6% 10.11 -0.8%

NCCBLMF1 9.96 9.9 -0.6% 9.81 -0.9% 9.85 0.4% 9.77 -0.8%

The top 10 large cap companies experienced an overall decline of -0.64% during the month, which caused a slight decline in the value of LR Global managed mutual funds in November compared to the previous month.

We have consistently outperformed the benchmark index across all funds since inception due to our security selection, asset allocation, market timing, and rating process.

Source: LR Global Research

153

90

40

65

90

115

140

165

190

Nov-10 Feb-13 May-15 Aug-17 Nov-19

LR_DBH1STMF

LR_DBH1STMF

Benchmark

123

71

25

50

75

100

125

150

Sep-10 Jul-12 May-14 Mar-16 Jan-18 Nov-19

LR_GREENDELMFBenchmark

LR_GREENDELMF

141

63

25

50

75

100

125

150

Nov-11 Nov-13 Nov-15 Nov-17 Nov-19

LR_AIBL1STMF

Benchmark

LR_AIBL1STIMF

137

68

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Feb-11 Nov-12 Aug-14 May-16 Feb-18 Nov-19

LR_MBL1STMFBenchmark

LR_MBL1STMF

146

82

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

Nov-11 Nov-13 Nov-15 Nov-17 Nov-19

LR_LRGLOBMF1Benchmark

LR_LRGLOBMF1

145

102

50

75

100

125

150

175

May-12 Nov-13 May-15 Nov-16 May-18 Nov-19

LR_NCCBLMF1

Benchmark

LR_NCCBLMF1

Page 5: NOVEMBER (2019) - LR Global Bangladesh · instance, debutant SEAPEARL topped the chart with an 84% price gain despite registering a 14% EPS decline in Q1. Similarly, textile companies

NOVEMBER (2019)

5

A relaxed rescheduling policy backfired as classified loan climbed to 11.99% of the total outstanding loan

While call money rate went down in October, it shot up

again to previous levels in November

Foreign exchange reserve has remained stable at a $31 bn to $32 bn level for the last 4 years

Source: Bangladesh Bank

MACRO UPDATE FY 2019-20 FY 2018-19 % Change

Export (mn $) (Jul-Oct) 12,719 13,652 -6.8%

Import (mn $) (Jul-Sep) 14,324 14,698 -2.5%

Remittances (mn $) (Jul-Oct) 6,181 5,108 21.0%

Tax Revenue (NBR) (mn $) (Jul-Sep) 5,595 5,450 2.7%

Total Domestic Credit (mn $) (Sep) 139,696 122,087 14.4%

Credit to the Private Sector (mn $) (Sep) 120,035 108,471 10.7%

Broad Money M2 (mn $) (Sep) 147,802 132,101 11.9%

LC Opening of Industrial Raw Material (mn $) (Jul-Aug) 2,738 3,381 -19.0%

LC Opening of Capital Machinery (mn $) (Jul-Aug) 421 760 -44.6%

Current Account Balance (mn $) (Jul-Sep) (678) (1,316) N/A

Net Sales of National Savings Certificates (mn $) (Jul-Oct) 632 2,104 -70.0%

This Month Last Month % Change

Foreign Exchange Reserve (mn $) 31,728 32,377 -2.0%

Call Rate (Weighted Average Rate) 3.85 3.61 6.6%

Taka-Dollar Exchange Rate (Avg BDT) 84.80 84.75 0.1%

Remittance is exhibiting healthy growth, backed by 2% cash incentive by the government

Exports continued on its negative trend and fell significantly by 17% in October

Inflation hit an 8-month low in October due to fall in non-food inflation

jjjj

3.07

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

Oct

-09

Mar

-10

Au

g-10

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

No

v-11

A

pr-

12

S

ep-1

2

Feb

-13

Jul-

13

Dec

-13

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Au

g-15

Jan

-16

Jun

-16

No

v-16

Ap

r-17

Sep

-17

Feb

-18

Jul-

18

Dec

-18

May

-19

Oct

-19

Export (in bn US$)

5.54

5.47

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Dec

-08

May

-09

Oct

-09

Mar

-10

Au

g-10

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

No

v-11

Ap

r-12

Sep

-12

Feb

-13

Jul-

13D

ec-1

3M

ay-1

4O

ct-1

4M

ar-1

5A

ug-

15Ja

n-1

6Ju

n-1

6N

ov-

16A

pr-

17Se

p-1

7Fe

b-1

8Ju

l-18

Dec

-18

May

-19

Oct

-19

Rate of Inflation (Base:1995-96=100)

Twelve Month Average Basis Point to Point Basis

1.64

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Oct

-09

Mar

-10

Au

g-10

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

No

v-1

1

A

pr-

12

Sep

-12

Feb

-13

Jul-

13

Dec

-13

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Au

g-15

Jan

-16

Jun

-16

No

v-1

6

Ap

r-17

Sep

-17

Feb

-18

Jul-

18

Dec

-18

May

-19

Oct

-19

Remittance (in bn US$)

31.7

7.0

17.0

27.0

37.0

Oct

-09

Mar

-10

Au

g-10

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

No

v-11

A

pr-

12

S

ep-1

2

Feb

-13

Jul-

13

Dec

-13

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Au

g-15

Jan

-16

Jun

-16

No

v-16

Ap

r-17

Sep

-17

Feb

-18

Jul-

18

Dec

-18

May

-19

Oct

-19

Foreign Exchange Reserve (In bn USD)

11.99

5.50

8.00

10.50

13.00

15.50

Sep

-09

Mar

-10

Sep

-10

Mar

-11

Sep

-11

Mar

-12

Sep

-12

Mar

-13

Sep

-13

Mar

-14

Sep

-14

Mar

-15

Sep

-15

Mar

-16

Sep

-16

Mar

-17

Sep

-17

Mar

-18

Sep

-18

Mar

-19

Sep

-19

% Share of Classified Loan to Total Outstanding

3.85

1.00

4.00

7.00

10.00

No

v-1

3

Mar

-14

Jul-

14

No

v-1

4

Mar

-15

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5

Mar

-16

Jul-

16

No

v-1

6

Mar

-17

Jul-

17

No

v-1

7

Mar

-18

Jul-

18

No

v-1

8

Mar

-19

Jul-

19

No

v-1

9

Call Money Rate (%)

Page 6: NOVEMBER (2019) - LR Global Bangladesh · instance, debutant SEAPEARL topped the chart with an 84% price gain despite registering a 14% EPS decline in Q1. Similarly, textile companies

NOVEMBER (2019)

6

Interest rate spread has been narrowing as they are being adjusted to single digits as per central bank directives

Yield curve of long-term treasury bonds have flattened significantly

Source: Bangladesh Bank

CAPITAL MARKET UPDATE

Monthly Sector Return Sector Contribution to Total Turnover

The P/E ratio of most sectors went up slightly during the month, as the market went up and most earnings growth declined.

Majority of the sectors made a turnaround during the month, with the Tourism & Leisure sector enjoying the highest gain during the month due to an unusual price hike in SEAPEARL.

Cheap industrial stocks, stability of the pharmaceutical sector, and positive earnings growth alongside the government’s mandate to enlist all insurers drove investors to binge on the stocks in these sectors.

DSEX gained 49 points (1.04%) during the period as the market trend shifted from downward to sideways.

18.3%

14.2%

13.4%

10.7%

10.1%

6.6%

4.0%

3.8%

3.5%

3.3%

2.4%

2.2%

1.9%

5.6%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

Industrial

General Insurance

Pharmaceuticals

Textile

Bank

Fuel & Power

Foods & Allied

NBFI

Telecommunication

Tannery

Mutual Fund

Ceramic

IT

Others-7.74%

-5.78%-4.22%

-3.02%-1.35%-0.99%

-0.04%0.12%

1.03%1.05%

3.92%4.07%

6.31%6.33%

7.30%9.74%10.19%

14.74%

-10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00%

TanneryJuteFoods & AlliedFuel & PowerPharmaceuticalsIndustrialMutual FundTelecommunicationBankCeramicITGeneral InsuranceTextilePaper & PrintLife InsuranceNBFICementTourism & Leisure

7.3113.57 12.75 14.26 15.1 16.93

25.81 22.85 19.76

61.98

24.3 26.05

14.67

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ban

k

Fuel

& P

ow

er

Tele

com

mu

nic

atio

n

Ind

ust

rial

Gen

eral

Insu

ran

ce

Ph

arm

aceu

tica

ls

Cer

amic

Tan

ner

y IT

NB

FI

Cem

ent

Foo

ds

& A

llied

DSE

Sector P/E Valuation

This month Last month

9.58

5.66

4.0

5.5

7.0

8.5

10.0

11.5

13.0

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

Lending & Deposit Rates

Lending Rate Deposit Rate (RHS)

3.2

5.2

7.2

9.2

11.2

91-DayT-bill

182-DayT-bill

364-DayT-bill

5 yr T-bond

10 yr T-bond

15 yr T-bond

20 yr T-bond

Yield CurveJun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19

Sep-19

Oct-19

Nov-19

Page 7: NOVEMBER (2019) - LR Global Bangladesh · instance, debutant SEAPEARL topped the chart with an 84% price gain despite registering a 14% EPS decline in Q1. Similarly, textile companies

NOVEMBER (2019)

7

NOTABLE QUARTERLY EARNINGS DURING THE MONTH

NOTABLE YEARLY EARNINGS & DIVIDEND DECLARATIONS DURING THE MONTH

Market Liquidity

This Month Last Month Change

Total Turnover (USD Million) 874.96 828.83 5.56%

Avg. Daily Turnover (USD ‘Million) 46.05 37.67 22.23%

Turnover Leaders Top Ten Gainers Top Ten Losers Ticker Avg. Turnover (BDT MN) Ticker % Change Ticker % Change

NTLTUBES 2,548.69 SEAPEARL 83.57% WATACHEM -28.19%

SONARBAINS 1,856.90 AL-HAJTEX 44.73% MONNOSTAF -22.33%

SQURPHARMA 1,437.26 TOSRIFA 43.56% RENWICKJA -21.97%

FORTUNE 1,422.11 GBBPOWER 41.59% EMERALDOIL -21.64%

GP 1,409.24 NFML 40.28% SILCOPHL -21.41%

WATACHEM 1,130.35 SAMATALETH 39.13% RAHIMTEXT -20.75%

BSCCL 1,129.39 MITHUNKNIT 35.94% BATASHOE -19.20%

BEACONPHAR 1,124.60 ZAHEENSPIN 35.59% KPPL -18.24%

SHURWID 1,075.14 LANKABAFIN 35.42% KOHINOOR -17.51%

LANKABAFIN 1,064.83 PROGRESLIF 34.48% SHEPHERD -16.67%

TICKER COMPANY NAME SECTOR EPS 2019 (Jul-Sep)

EPS 2018 (Jul-Sep)

CHANGE

BXPHARMA Beximco Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Pharmaceuticals 2.13 1.86 14.5%

RENATA Renata Ltd. Pharmaceuticals 12.78 10.46 22.2%

ACMELAB Acme Laboratories Ltd. Pharmaceuticals 1.89 1.84 2.7%

BBSCABLES BBS Cables Ltd. Industrial 2.74 2.66 3.0%

WATACHEM Wata Chemicals Ltd. Pharmaceuticals 4.11 2.71 51.7%

GHAIL Golden Harvest Agro Industries Ltd. Food and Allied 0.6 0.59 1.7%

IFADAUTOS Ifad Autos Ltd. Industrial 0.51 1.57 -67.5%

TICKER COMPANY NAME SECTOR EPS 2019 (Jul-Jun)

EPS 2018 (Jul-Jun)

CHANGE DIVIDEND (2019)

ACI ACI Ltd. Pharmaceuticals -14.87 10.36 -243.53% 100% C & 15% B

AMBEEPHA Ambee Pharmaceuticals ltd. Pharmaceuticals 1.4 3.44 -59.30% 30% C

OLYMPIC Olympic Industries Ltd. Food and Allied 9.36 8.96 4.46% 50% C

MPETROLEUM Meghna Petroleum Ltd. Fuel and Power 35.11 33.3 5.44% 150% C

POWERGRID Power Grid Company of Bangladesh Fuel and Power 7.3 6.94 5.19% 20% C

NTLUBES dominated the turnover chart, continuing its streak from the previous month, despite operating in loss over the last few years.

Most stocks experienced an unusual hike, without being backed by fundamentals, while the top gainer debuted in the market this year.

The majority of the stocks that eroded most in value during the month posted negative earnings and hence experienced sell pressure.

Mixed earnings declarations during the month, coupled with the market trying to make a reversal, has increased market participation during the month. This boosted the monthly total market turnover by 5.56% compared to the previous month.

ACI and AMBEEPHA were unable to leverage on the upward revision of drug prices in the last quarter of FY 2019 and posted

negative earnings growth. Other companies such as OLYMPIC, MPETROLEUM and POWERGRID posted single digit positive

earnings.

Pharmaceutical companies such as WATACHEM, BXPHARMA and RENATA exhibited positive quarter-on-quarter earnings growth this quarter, similar to the yearly earnings declared last month. On the other hand, IFADAUTOS’ earnings was heavily affected by the overall gloomy performance of the global automobile industry.

Source: LR Global Research and DSE

Page 8: NOVEMBER (2019) - LR Global Bangladesh · instance, debutant SEAPEARL topped the chart with an 84% price gain despite registering a 14% EPS decline in Q1. Similarly, textile companies

NOVEMBER (2019)

8

3140.98

2,200

2,500

2,800

3,100

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

No

v-1

9

S&P 500

6,211.97

5,000

5,600

6,200

6,800

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

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-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

No

v-1

9

CSE ALL SHARE

1,000.69

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

No

v-1

9

FTSE VIETNAM ALL

29.23

24

27

30

33

36

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

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v-1

9

MSCI FRONTIER 100

WORLD MARKET

INDICES, COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES

Indices 1-Year 6-Month 3-Month 1-Month 1-Week S&P500 14.73% 14.13% 7.33% 3.09% 0.99% SENSEX 12.78% 2.72% 9.27% 1.85% 1.08% CSE ALL 3.66% 16.97% 5.47% 4.28% 1.72% FTSE VTNM 2.61% 0.70% -1.12% -3.02% -0.66% MSCI FRONTIER 100 5.71% 1.81% 1.35% 3.00% 1.67% FTSE 100 4.37% 2.58% 1.93% -0.83% 0.27% DSEX -10.41% -12.02% -6.00% 1.04% 0.92%

Commodities Return 1-Year 6-Month 3-Month 1-Month 1-Week Gold 16.81% 11.35% -3.71% -1.60% 0.15% Copper -5.06% 0.68% 4.35% -0.89% 0.11% Crude Oil 7.23% 3.12% 0.13% 0.20% -4.50% Sugar 0.54% 6.94% 16.16% 4.27% 0.86% Wheat 6.77% 7.38% 17.50% 6.35% 5.45%

Currencies Return* Exchange Rate 1-Year 6-Month 3-Month 1-Month 1-Week Euro 0.91 3.4% 1.5% -0.2% 1.2% 0.1% INR 71.75 2.8% 3.7% 0.4% 1.1% -0.1% Yen 109.52 -3.5% 1.1% 3.0% 0.6% 0.8% CNY 7.03 1.3% 1.9% -1.6% -0.1% -0.1% VND 23,180.00 -0.6% -1.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% BDT 84.90 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%

*Calculated against USD, positive return denotes depreciation against USD

Source: investing.com

40793.81

23,000

28,000

33,000

38,000

43,000

No

v-1

7

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Sep

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No

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v-1

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SENSEX

7,346.53

5,500.00

6,000.00

6,500.00

7,000.00

7,500.00

8,000.00

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

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FTSE 100