november 2019 currency outlook - microsoft...euro (eur) 6 us dollar (usd) 7 canadian dollar (cad) 8...

November 2019Currency Outlook

ContentsWeek-by-week overview 3Key dates 3Pound sterling (GBP) 5Euro (EUR) 6US dollar (USD) 7Canadian dollar (CAD) 8Australian dollar (AUD) 9New Zealand dollar (NZD) 10Japanese yen (JPY) 11Swiss franc (CHF) 12Currency forecasts 13Sterling October performance 14

Economic data correct as of 29 October 2019Trade data denominated in local currency.

Markets were, once again, dominated by geopolitical developments in October; as Brexit was delayed, a UK general election was called, and US-China trade relations inched closer to a phase one deal being agreed. Meanwhile, in the world of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve announced a 3rd consecutive interest rate cut, while ECB President Draghi waved farewell after 8 years at the helm.

Turning to the month ahead, geopolitical developments will remain in focus, as the UK moves towards a December election and Sino-US relations remain volatile. Meanwhile, macroeconomically, the preliminary estimates of 3rd quarter GDP growth from around the world will be closely watched for signs of a continued slowdown in economic activity.

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November 2019Currency Outlook

€ $£

BESPOKE CURRENCY SOLUTIONS

Week-by-Week Overview

WEEK ONENovember begins with the monthly US labour market report in focus, expected to show hiring continuing to slow as business investment remains subdued in the face of growing downside risks and uncertainties. Market participants will also be paying close attention to unemployment and earnings data to gauge the general health of the market. Also eyed will be manufacturing PMI prints from the UK and US, both likely to show activity in the sector remaining sluggish as a global industrial slowdown continues.

WEEK TWOThe month continues with PMI surveys remaining in focus, this time from the services sector, as investors continue to attempt to gauge whether the slowdown in production is spilling-over into the broader economy. Monetary policy will also be in focus, with policy decisions due from both the BoE and RBA this week. Neither Bank is likely to make any policy alterations, though the BoE’s quarterly Inflation Report and refreshed economic forecasts will be of interest. Also of note will be labour market data from Canada, New Zealand and Switzerland; along with preliminary US consumer sentiment figures, the latter data point being key for the growth prospects of the US economy.

WEEK THREEThe theme of a slowing global economy will remain in focus as November progresses, with this week seeing the release of third quarter GDP figures from the UK, eurozone and Japan. Growth is likely to have slowed due to increasing global uncertainties, largely stemming from ongoing, and escalating, US-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, attention will also be on the release of CPI inflation data from the UK, US and eurozone; along with labour market figures from the UK and Australia. The RBNZ are also set to announce their latest monetary policy decision, with policymakers likely to continue to strike a dovish tone.

KEY EVENTS

Week One

1 Nov Japan unemployment rate (Sep), Switzerland CPI (Oct), UK manufacturing PMI (Oct), US labour market report (Oct), US ISM manufacturing PMI (Oct)

Week Two

4 Nov Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Oct F), New Zealand labour market report (Q3), Switzerland retail sales (Sep)

5 Nov Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision, Eurozone services PMI (Oct F), UK services PMI (Oct), Canada trade balance (Sep), US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Oct)

6 Nov BoJ meeting minutes (Sep)

7 Nov Australia trade balance (Sep), Bank of England (BoE) rate decision

8 Nov RBA monetary policy statement, Canada labour market report (Oct), US prelim. consumer sentiment (Nov), Switzerland unemployment rate (Oct)

Week Three

11 Nov UK GDP (Q3)

12 Nov UK labour market report (Sep)

13 Nov Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision, UK CPI (Oct), US CPI (Oct)

14 Nov Japan GDP (Q3), Australia labour market report (Oct), Eurozone GDP (Q3)

15 Nov Eurozone CPI (Oct F), US retail sales (Oct)

CAXTONFX.COM/BUSINESS

WEEK FOURInvestors will gain valuable insight into recent monetary policy decisions this week, with the ECB, FOMC and RBA all releasing minutes from their latest rate decisions. These minutes will be closely scrutinised for both the rationale behind recent decisions, and for hints of future monetary policy changes. Meanwhile, eurozone flash PMI figures will give the latest insight into the health of the bloc’s economy, while Canadian retail sales and Japanese CPI prints will also be closely watched.

WEEK FIVENovember draws to a conclusion with economic growth remaining in focus, with third quarter GDP figures from the US, Canada and Switzerland all due. Market participants will also be keeping a close eye on flash CPI data from the eurozone, set to show inflation remaining benign, along with unemployment data from Japan.


KEY EVENTS

Week Four

19 Nov RBA meeting minutes (Oct), Switzerland trade balance (Oct)

20 Nov Japan trade balance (Oct), Canada CPI (Oct), FOMC meeting minutes (Oct)

21 Nov ECB meeting minutes (Oct)

22 Nov Japan CPI (Oct), Eurozone flash PMIs (Nov), Canada retail sales (Sep)

Week Five

26 Nov New Zealand trade balance (Oct)

27 Nov US GDP (Q3)

28 Nov Switzerland GDP (Q3)

29 Nov Japan unemployment rate (Oct), Eurozone flash CPI (Nov), Canada GDP (Q3)

GBP Currency Outlook1 MONTH

After a new Brexit deal was agreed with the EU27 in October, focus for the month ahead will switch to campaigning for the upcoming December general election. Bearing this in mind, opinion polling will begin to have a greater impact on sterling, in addition to policy and manifesto announcements – particularly those outlining political parties’ stances on Brexit – being sharply in focus. With uncertainty set to increase in the run up to an election meaning that the near-term balance of risks seemingly tilted to the downside.

Meanwhile, this month’s Bank of England policy decision should see rates kept on hold, though policymakers are likely to strike a more cautious tone as the global economy slows, and faces intensifying downside risks. Policy accommodation is unlikely at present, however recent comments from BoE policymakers indicate that a more dovish tone is likely, and that rate cuts may be considered should uncertainties persist.

3 MONTHS

In the longer-term, the outlook for the pound remains difficult to predict. December’s general election result will be key for determining the direction that Brexit will take over the next 3 months. A Conservative majority government, the most likely outcome given current opinion polling, would result in swift approval of the current Withdrawal Agreement and an orderly Brexit by the end of January 2020. An orderly Brexit would likely help the pound to find support, though trade negotiations do pose a downside risk. On the other hand, a Labour majority, or Labour-led coalition, would likely result in some form of second EU referendum, perhaps helping the pound should Brexit be reversed.

Elsewhere, macroeconomic data is likely to continue being largely ignored, though the economy is showing signs of weakness. The labour market appears to be softening, while GDP growth remains relatively subdued – due in part to political uncertainties, and weakness in the global production sector.

KEY DATES

1 Nov Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

5 Nov Services PMI (Oct)

7 Nov Bank of England (BoE) rate decision

11 Nov GDP (Q3)

12 Nov Labour market report (Sep)

13 Nov CPI (Oct)


Economic Data UK

GDP 1.3% (Q2 19)

Interest Rate 0.75% (Aug 18)

Inflation Rate 1.7% (Sep 19)

Unemployment Rate 3.9% (Aug 19)

Wage Growth 3.8% (Aug 19)

Trade Balance -1.6bln (Aug 19)

Current Account -25.2bln (Q2 19)

GBP/USD 6 MONTHS

1.3000

1.3200

1.2800

1.2600

1.2000

1.2200

1.2400

JUL 19 AUG 19 OCT 19SEP 19APR 19 MAY 19 JUN 19

EUR Currency Outlook1 MONTH

The slowing eurozone economy and regional response to continued weak momentum will remain in focus this month, with third quarter GDP data set to confirm the bloc stumbling along at a weak pace of growth, and Germany likely to have dipped into a technical recession. This slowdown appears largely priced-in, with more attention likely to be on forward-looking indicators. Therefore, this month’s PMI surveys will be closely watched for any, albeit unlikely, fledgling signs of green shoots emerging. A continued weakening in PMI surveys will likely weigh on the euro, particularly if the services sector nudges closer to contraction. Close attention will also be paid to any fiscal response to the ongoing slowdown, particularly in Germany, which would likely be well-received by markets.

Meanwhile, inflation is set to continue on its benign trend, while, in the labour market, wage growth shows little sign of significantly picking up despite unemployment reaching fresh post-crisis lows last month. This may be indicative of more structural problems, causing yet another headache for the ECB.

3 MONTHS

Looking further ahead, after saying arrivederci to Mario Draghi, markets will say bienvenue to incoming ECB President Christine Lagarde in December. Lagarde’s first policy meeting is unlikely to herald any significant changes, though monetary policy will likely remain ultra-accommodative for the foreseeable future – weighing on the common currency. The ultra-loose stance, including the ‘open-ended’ QE programme does cause a number of problems, namely the fact that the ECB are likely to hit their self-imposed issuer limits at some point in 2020. Lagarde will have to address this, as well as the possibility of taking the deposit rate deeper into negative territory, relatively early on in her term.

Other areas of focus include escalating trade tensions with the US stemming from an ongoing dispute over state subsidies given to Airbus; along with the UK’s protracted departure from the EU, and resulting uncertainty, continuing to dampen business investment and economic growth.

KEY DATES

4 Nov Manufacturing PMI (Oct F)

5 Nov Services PMI (Oct F)

14 Nov GDP (Q3)

15 Nov CPI (Oct F)

21 Nov ECB meeting minutes (Oct)

22 Nov Flash PMIs (Nov)

29 Nov Flash CPI (Nov)

Economic Data EU

GDP 1.2% (Q2 19)

Interest Rate Refi: 0.0% (Mar 16)

Depo: -0.50% (Sep 19)



Wage Growth 2.7% (Q2 19)

Trade Balance 14.7bln (Aug 19)

Current Account 25.7bln (Aug 19)


GBP/EUR 6 MONTHS

1.1600

1.1800

1.1400

1.1200

1.1000

1.0800

1.0600

APR 19 MAY 19 JUN 19 JUL 19 AUG 19 SEP 19 OCT 19

USD Currency Outlook1 MONTH

Ongoing US-China trade tensions will remain in focus over the course of November, with the two superpowers seemingly edging closer to formally signing a ‘phase one’ deal that may see relations thaw. However, the looming threat of additional tariffs being imposed in December means uncertainty remains high, a factor which will likely result in continued safe-haven flows into the dollar.

Elsewhere, minutes from the October FOMC meeting will provide markets with further insight into the Committee’s decision, along with likely hints at the monetary policy outlook. On the data front, monthly labour market data is set to show hiring continuing to slow, increasingly due to lesser demand for workers, while third quarter GDP will be eyed for any signs of the wider economy slowing. Finally, with the consumer continuing to act as the growth engine of the economy, retail sales and consumer sentiment figures will be closely watched.

3 MONTHS

In the longer-term, the US monetary policy outlook will remain in focus, with the Federal Reserve set to keep monetary policy on hold for the foreseeable future. Having delivered 75bps of ‘insurance’ rate cuts this year, policymakers are set to pause their cycle of easing policy, instead assessing the impact that their recent monetary policy actions have had. This is likely to provide the dollar with some support, as market participants begin to price out further policy easing.

Meanwhile, economic releases will remain in focus, particularly if leading economic indicators, such as PMI and sentiment surveys, begin to soften, indicative of a deeper economic slowdown than expected. Furthermore, the 2020 Presidential Election continues to loom large, with Democrats continuing to narrow down their field of candidates, and President Trump likely to soon gear-up his re-election campaign.

KEY DATES

1 Nov Labour market report (Oct), ISM manufacturing PMI (Oct)

5 Nov ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Oct)

8 Nov Prelim. consumer sentiment (Nov)

13 Nov CPI (Oct)

15 Nov Retail sales (Oct)

20 Nov FOMC meeting minutes (Oct)

27 Nov GDP (Q3)

Economic Data USA

GDP 1.50% - 1.75% (Oct 19)

Interest Rate 1.9% (Q3 19)


Unemployment Rate 3.5% (Sep 19)

Wage Growth 2.9% (Sep 19)




EUR/USD 6 MONTHS

1.1300

1.1400

1.1200

1.1100

1.1000

1.0900

JUL 19 AUG 19 SEP 19 OCT 19APR 19 MAY 19 JUN 19

1 MONTH

In a similar manner to other major economies, the theme of an economic slowdown is likely to dominate for the Canadian dollar in the month ahead. Despite GDP holding up relatively well thus far, it is difficult to see how the Canadian economy can remain totally immune from both increasing global headwinds and a slowing US economy (Canada’s main trading partner). With this in mind, third quarter GDP figures will attract significant attention at the end of the month, while sentiment surveys will be used as a semi-reliable leading indicator. Signs of the economy slowing are likely to result in a softer loonie.

Markets will remain focused on the labour market, which is likely to remain tight, though question marks remain over whether the current pace of wage growth is sustainable. Furthermore, the direction of oil prices will remain important, with the potential of further OPEC-led supply cuts before year-end set to provide support to both crude prices and the Canadian dollar.

3 MONTHS

The longer-term direction of the Canadian dollar will somewhat hinge on the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy stance. BoC policymakers are likely to become increasingly cautious as the year concludes, possibly mulling providing additional accommodation, due to both increasing downside risks to the economic outlook, and due to the Federal Reserve cutting rates south of the border. A one-off rate cut is unlikely to have a prolonged effect on the loonie, though a full-on easing cycle would likely result in downside movement.

Meanwhile, investors will also be paying close attention to the political situation, particularly the policies enacted by the newly elected Trudeau-led minority government. Despite winning the recent election, Trudeau’s Liberal Party lost seats, perhaps resulting in a less sweeping programme for government than some had expected.

CAD Currency Outlook KEY DATES

1 Nov Labour market report (Oct)

20 Nov CPI (Oct)

22 Nov Retail sales (Sep)

29 Nov GDP (Q3)

Economic Data CANADA

GDP 1.6% (Q2 19)

Interest Rate 1.75% (Oct 19)



Wage Growth 4.3% (Sep 19)




GBP/CAD 6 MONTHS

1.6400

1.5900

1.6900

1.7400

1.7900


AUD Currency Outlook1 MONTH

This month’s RBA policy decision is unlikely to result in any alterations to monetary policy, with policymakers having already delivered 75bps worth of cuts this year. Nonetheless, with unemployment remaining elevated, and the economy continuing to face substantial downside risks, the RBA are almost certain to maintain their dovish stance and explicit easing bias. Taking this into account, a further rate cut is likely in the first quarter of 2020, possibly accompanied by the discussion and potential implementation of unconventional policy measures such as quantitative easing.

The above view aligns with the market pricing of rates remaining unchanged for the remainder of the year, however loose monetary policy will likely continue to weigh on the Aussie dollar unless expectations of future policy alterations shift significantly away from further loosening.

3 MONTHS

In the longer-term, US-China trade relations will continue to play a major role in driving the direction of the Aussie dollar; both due to shifts in risk sentiment and due to Australia’s close links with the Chinese economy. Firstly, should tensions escalate further, and the ‘phase one’ deal fail to be agreed, the Aussie dollar is likely to come under pressure. Meanwhile, with approximately a third of all Australian exports being destined for China, a slowdown in the Chinese economy would likely have a knock-on effect down under. China’s third quarter GDP growth slid to a 27-year low of 6% YoY, potentially putting Australia’s record of having positive economic growth every year since 1990.

Other areas of focus in the months ahead include the direction of iron ore prices, which have pulled back significantly from this summer’s 5-year high, potentially weighing on the Aussie dollar.

KEY DATES

5 Nov Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision

8 Nov RBA monetary policy statement (Nov)

14 Nov Labour market report (Oct)

19 Nov RBA meeting minutes (Nov)

Economic Data AU

GDP 1.4% (Q2 19)

Interest Rate 0.75% (Oct 19)

Inflation Rate 1.6% (Q2 19)




Current Account 5.9bln (Q2 19)


GBP/AUD 6 MONTHS

JUL 19 AUG 19 SEP 19 OCT 19MAY 19 JUN 19APR 19

1.8600

1.9000

1.8800

1.8400

1.8200

1.8000

1.7800

1.7600

NZD Currency Outlook1 MONTH

This month’s RBNZ policy decision will likely be the main event for the kiwi dollar, with the RBNZ set to deliver a further 25bps interest rate cut. The rationale behind providing additional accommodation is similar to the RBNZ’s antipodean counterpart; namely the slack labour market, increasing downside economic risks, and sluggish pace of economic growth. While a rate cut appears to be largely priced in, a dovish message from policymakers, along with maintaining an easing bias, will likely weigh on the NZD.

Meanwhile, November also sees the release of third quarter labour market data, expected to show slack persisting in the market thus exerting little by way of upward pressure on inflation.

3 MONTHS

Looking ahead, and in a similar manner to the Aussie dollar, ongoing developments in US-China trade relations will continue to be a significant factor driving the NZD. Namely, should risk appetite sour further, the Kiwi dollar will likely depreciate further, possibly falling back to the multi-year lows reached in September. Third quarter GDP figures will also be closely watched for any signs of a spill-over effect from a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

Elsewhere, while the correlation remains weaker than before, the direction of dairy prices will remain important to the kiwi dollar. Prices have recently shown signs of stabilising, which may provide the NZD with some support.

KEY DATES

4 Nov Labour market report (Q3)

13 Nov Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision

26 Nov Trade balance (Oct)

Economic Data NZ

GDP 2.1% (Q2 19)

Interest Rate 1.0% (Aug 19)

Inflation Rate 1.5% (Q3 19)

Unemployment Rate 3.9% (Q2 19)


Trade Balance -1.2bln (Sep 19)



GBP/NZD 6 MONTHS

2.0400

1.9900

1.9400

1.8400

1.8900


1 MONTH

As has been the case for many months, the near-term direction of the yen will continue to be driven by shifts in global risk appetite. Should geopolitical tensions – stemming from US-China trade relations, Brexit worries, or rising tempers in the Middle East – continue to increase, the yen should continue to see significant demand and remain well-supported.

Meanwhile, though the fundamentals of the Japanese economy continue to have little impact on the yen, November sees a number of notable releases. Q3 GDP figures will be closely watched for a continuation of the recent trend of subdued growth, in addition to the likely detrimental impact stemming from trade tensions. Furthermore, minutes from the BoJ’s September policy meeting may provide some clues as to the monetary policy outlook, while CPI inflation should remain practically non-existent.

3 MONTHS

Looking further ahead, the Bank of Japan are likely to leave monetary policy on hold for the foreseeable future, with policymakers’ toolkit largely depleted. While the BoJ may strike a more dovish tone, and could perhaps alter some aspects of their yield curve control programme, the efficacy of such measures remain in doubt, as shown by the non-existent momentum towards the BoJ’s 2% inflation goal.

Market participants will also continue to pay close attention to the impacts of October’s consumption tax hike. When the tax was last increased, the sudden slowdown in consumer spending tipped the economy into a brief recession. Close attention will be paid to incoming sentiment surveys and sales figures to gauge whether a repeat situation is panning out.

JPY Currency Outlook KEY DATES

1 Nov Unemployment rate (Sep)

6 Nov Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting minutes (Sep)

14 Nov GDP (Q3)

20 Nov Trade balance (Oct)

22 Nov CPI (Oct)

29 Nov Unemployment rate (Oct)

Economic Data JAPAN

GDP 1.0% (Q2 19)

Interest Rate -0.1% (Jan 16)



Wage Growth -0.2% (Aug 19)

Trade Balance -123bln (Sep 19)

Current Account 2.2tln (Aug 19)


GBP/JPY 6 MONTHS

127.00

131.00

135.00

139.00

147.00

143.00


CHF Currency Outlook1 MONTH

In a similar manner to the yen, the near-term direction of the Swissie will also hinge on shifts in global risk appetite. Furthermore, should European investors be spooked by increasing amounts of Brexit-linked uncertainties, the franc could receive additional haven-related flows.

Also in focus will be third quarter GDP figures, which are likely to show economic growth remaining subdued, partly as a result of a broader, global slowdown, and partly as the effects of a weaker eurozone economy spill-over into the Swiss economy due to the highly open nature of the latter. CPI and unemployment data will also be eyed, though will likely have little, if any, significant impact on the trajectory of the CHF.

3 Months

Looking ahead, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) are unlikely to make any monetary policy changes before year-end, seemingly being reluctant to follow the ECB and take rates deeper into negative territory. Instead, the SNB will likely continue both verbal, and possible monetary, interventions in FX markets in order to prevent the franc from becoming over-valued. Protecting the value of the franc will likely be policymakers’ primary tool in the months ahead, largely as a result of the very open nature of the Swiss economy and detrimental impacts that an expensive CHF would have.

KEY DATES

2 Oct CPI (Sep)

7 Oct Unemployment rate (Sep)

17 Oct Trade balance (Sep)

30 Oct KOF economic barometer (Oct)

Economic Data SWITZERLAND

GDP 0.2% (Q2 19)

Interest Rate -0.75% (Jan 15)

Inflation Rate 0.3% (Aug 19)




Current Account 21.3bln (Q2 19)


GBP/CHF 6 MONTHS

1.3400

1.3200

1.3000

1.2800

1.2600

1.2400

1.1800

1.1600

1.2200

1.2000

JUL 19 SEPT 19 OCT 19AUG 19APR 19 MAY 19 JUN 19

1.05

1.07

1.09

1.11

1.13

1.15

1.17

1.19

Nov-2018 Feb-2019 May-2019 Aug-2019 Nov-2019 Feb-2020 May-2020 Aug-2020

EUR/USD - Last 12 Months & Year Ahead Forecasts

Spot

Commerzbank

Citi

ANZ

JPMorgan Chase

Societe Generale

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2


GBP/EUR - Last 12 Months & Year Ahead Forecasts

Spot

Commerzbank

Citi

ANZ

JPMorgan Chase

Societe Generale

1.2

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1.3

1.32

1.34

1.36

1.38

1.4


GBP/USD - Last 12 Months & Year Ahead Forecasts

Spot

Commerzbank

Citi

ANZ

JPMorgan Chase

Societe Generale

1.05

1.07

1.09

1.11

1.13

1.15

1.17

1.19



Spot

Commerzbank

Citi

ANZ

JPMorgan Chase

Societe Generale

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2



Spot

Commerzbank

Citi

ANZ

JPMorgan Chase

Societe Generale

1.2

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1.3

1.32

1.34

1.36

1.38

1.4



Spot

Commerzbank

Citi

ANZ

JPMorgan Chase

Societe Generale

1.05

1.07

1.09

1.11

1.13

1.15

1.17

1.19



Spot

Commerzbank

Citi

ANZ

JPMorgan Chase

Societe Generale

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2



Spot

Commerzbank

Citi

ANZ

JPMorgan Chase

Societe Generale

1.2

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1.3

1.32

1.34

1.36

1.38

1.4



Spot

Commerzbank

Citi

ANZ

JPMorgan Chase

Societe Generale

2019/20 Currency Forecasts

Citi

Citi

Commerzbank

Commerzbank

Spot

Spot

ANZ

ANZ

SocGen

SocGen

JP Morgan Chase

JP Morgan Chase

GBP/USD

1.2200

1.2000

1.2400

1.2600

1.3000

1.2800

1.3200

1.3400

1.3600

1.3800

1.4000

MAY 2020 AUG 2020FEB 2020NOV 2019JUN 2019MAY 2019FEB 2019NOV 2018



CitiCommerzbankSpot ANZ SocGenJP Morgan ChaseEUR/USD

1.1800

1.2000

1.1600

1.1400

1.1200

1.1000

1.0800

1.0600

1.0200

1.0400


GBP/EUR

1.1900

1.1700

1.1500

1.1300

1.1100

1.0900

1.0700

1.0500

GBP/NZD

Build your currency plan to be Brexit ready

01/09/19 25/10/19 % Change

GBP/EUR 1.1277 1.1567 2.57%

GBP/USD 1.2286 1.2821 4.35%

EUR/USD 1.0899 1.1075 1.61%

GBP/CAD 1.6274 1.6721 2.75%

GBP/AUD 1.8205 1.8758 3.04%

GBP/NZD 1.9625 2.0140 2.62%

GBP/JPY 132.79 139.17 4.80%

GBP/CHF 1.2260 1.2731 3.84%

1. Define your objectivesUnderstand your appetite to currency risk which can also be influenced by your cash flow requirements

2. Decide a hedging ratioDefine your hedging ratio appropriate for your business risk

3. Evaluate hedging approachesDetermine a hedging approach that best meets your risk management needs – rolling, static, or layered approach

4. Evaluate your planWe will help you implement the right plan at the most optimal time whilst continually monitoring it for you

As a business, implementing a simple but effective ‘currency plan’ will help your business manage volatility for November 2019 and beyond. Following the 4 steps below will help you understand your currency risk and plan for any FX volatility.

PERFORMANCE - OCTOBER 2019

0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00%

GBP/EUR

GBP/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/AUD

GBP/CHF

GBP/JPY

GBP/CAD


Planning and managing your currency risk doesn’t have to be complicated. At Caxton, we can help you build a simple currency plan to protect your business

against adverse movements in the FX markets.

Speak to us today to help you manage your currency risk. For more information call

+44 (0) 207 201 0554

november 2019 currency outlook - microsoft...euro (eur) 6 us dollar (usd) 7 canadian dollar (cad) 8...

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