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  • North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the … · 2020. 4. 29. · Background Sun et al., 2017 Li et al., 2015 Wu et al., 2008 Zhang and Delworth, 2007 Influence of
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May. 6 th , 2020 2020 EGU Baolan Wu 1,2 Xiaopei Lin 1 , Lisan Yu 2 1 Physical Oceanography Lab, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China, 266100 2 Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi - Decadal Variability

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  • May. 6th, 2020

    2020 EGU

    Baolan Wu1,2

    Xiaopei Lin1, Lisan Yu21 Physical Oceanography Lab, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science

    and Technology, Qingdao, China, 266100

    2 Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

  • Outline

    ➢ 1 Background

    ➢ 2 Data & Method

    ➢ 3 Result

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

  • North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    ➢ Background

    Sugimoto and Kako, 2016

    Color shading: mixed layer depth

    Contours: sea surface height

    Thick black contour: the Kuroshio Extension axis

    (SSH = 90 cm)

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (mode water hereafter) is a vertically homogeneous thermocline water mass, occupying the whole of the subtropical Western Pacific Ocean.

    It transports mass, heat and nutrients from the surface into the subsurface ocean and provides memory of climate variability for climate prediction.

    South of the Kuroshio Extension ➔ North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (NPSTMW)

    Alexander et al., 1995

    re-emergence process

  • ➢ Background

    Qiu et al. 2017 US CLIVAR report; Oka et al. 2012

    3-5 years: first-mode baroclinic Rossby waves

    western midlatitude North Pacific where mode water develops

    Sugimoto and Hanawa, 2010

    Intensity change – PNA(PDO) Meridional shift - WPAleutian Low

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

  • ➢ Background

    Qiu et al. 2017 US CLIVAR report; Oka et al. 2012

    3-5 years: first-mode baroclinic Rossby waves

    western midlatitude North Pacific where mode water develops

    Sugimoto and Hanawa, 2010

    Intensity change – PNA(PDO) Meridional shift - WPAleutian Low

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    Interannual-Decadal Variability of the NPSTMW are controlled by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or Western Pacific (WP) mode

    3~5 years time lag

  • ➢ BackgroundNorth Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    PDO

    WP

  • ➢ BackgroundNorth Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    Decadal to multi-decadal Variability of the mode water mean temperature is neither to be controlled by the PDO nor the WP…

    But by…

    PDO

    WP

  • ➢ Background

    Sun et al., 2017

    Li et al., 2015

    Wu et al., 2008

    Zhang and Delworth, 2007

    Influence of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) on the North Pacific through

    Atmospheric Teleconnections

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    Wu et al., 2019

    …

    The Atlantic Ocean can

    influence the mid-

    latitude Pacific directly

    through the Atmospheric

    Stationary Rossby

    Wave.

    How the mode water responses to the AMO-induced surface wind variation?

    Wu et al., 2019

  • Outline

    ➢ 1 Background

    ➢ 2 Data & Method

    ➢ 3 Result

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

  • ➢ Data & Method

    Definition of the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water

    ① temperatures between 16-18 oC② temperature gradient < 1.5 oC/hm③ thickness >50 m

    Mean temperature, mean depth and

    thickness of the mode water

    Mixed layer depth (MLD)

    Main thermocline depth (MTD)

    Data: Ishii, EN4, IAP data, SODA, NCEP1

    Time series: 1871-2018, 1945-2012 (overlap)

    pre-processed: Apply a 7-year running mean filter to all time series

    Model Experiments: PI-Control model EXP. & Pacemaker EXP.

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

  • Outline

    ➢ 1 Background

    ➢ 2 Data & Method

    ➢ 3 Result

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

  • ➢ Result

    Sugimoto et al., 2017

    The STMW temperature varies coherently with the

    Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) rather than

    the PDO in the decadal to multi-decadal time scales

    with zero time lag

    Hanawa and Kamada, 2001

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

  • ➢ ResultNorth Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    Mode water thickness

    Mixed layer depth Main thermocline depth All variables

    consistently vary

    with the AMO

    SST in formation region

  • ➢ ResultNorth Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    AMO has large impact on the western Pacific Ocean SST

    mode water variabilitysubduction process

  • ➢ ResultNorth Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    Two decadal changes

    PDO has no effect on the two decadal time periods

    Cold Period

    (1970-1980)

    Warm Period

    (2000-2010)

  • ➢ ResultNorth Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    Cold Period (1970-1980) Warm Period (2000-2010)

    Negative AMO phase

    Cold Temp.

    Weak upper ocean

    stratification

    Positive AMO phase

    Warm Temp.

    Strong upper ocean

    stratification

  • ➢ ResultNorth Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    Cold Period

    (1970-1980)

    Warm Period

    (2000-2010)

    … ➔ Weak upper ocean stratification ➔ deep MLD ➔ deep MTD ➔ more mode water

    … ➔ Strong upper ocean stratification ➔ shallow MLD ➔ shallow MTD ➔ less mode water

  • ➢ Result

    SST variability in the mode water formation area are not determined by the air-

    sea heat flux. In fact, the air-sea interaction here is ocean driving atmosphere.

    anomalous easterly wind

    northward Ekman

    transport of warm water

    signal propagates from

    surface to subsurface

    increase the mode water

    mean temperature

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

  • ➢ Result

    The long-term PI-Control model simulation: multiple AMO cycles

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    Model SST and

    wind vectors

    regressed upon

    the model AMO

    index.

    signal

    propagates from

    surface to

    subsurface

  • ➢ Result

    Upper 700m Ocean heat content in

    the north Pacific Ocean (black line)

    is related to the AMO rather than

    the PDO.

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    Ocean heat content vertical structure

  • ➢ Result

    Tian et al., 2014

    Fish catches around Japan exhibits

    strong decadal to multi-decadal

    variability which is likely related

    to the AMO rather than the PDO.

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

  • ➢ Result

    Tian et al., 2014Fish catches around

    Japan exhibits strong

    decadal to multi-

    decadal variability

    which is likely

    related to the AMO

    rather than the PDO.

    Upper 700m Ocean heat content in

    the north Pacific Ocean (black line)

    is related to the AMO rather than the

    PDO.

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    A new precursor !

  • Thanks for Your Time

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    ➢ Acknowledge

    Related References

    ⚫ Wu, B., X. Lin, and B. Qiu, 2018: Meridional shift of the Oyashio Extension front

    in the past 36 years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 9042-9048.

    ⚫ Wu, B., X. Lin, and B. Qiu, 2019: On the seasonal variability of the Oyashio

    Extension fronts. Clim. Dynam. 53, 7011-7025.

    ⚫ Wu, B., X. Lin, and L. Yu, 2020: North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water Controlled

    by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability. Nature Climate Change. 10, 238-243.

  • ➢ Result

    Transient simulation: Pacemaker EXP.

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    Just after we

    put the AMV

    like SST

    anomaly in

    the Atlantic

    Ocean

    The whole transient processes take less than one year.

    Steady

    state of the

    modelling.

  • FIG. 12. (a) Regressions of the surface wind

    stress (vector, unit in N/m2) and SST (shading,

    unit in oC) with respect to the AMO index during

    1948-2012. (b) as in (a), but for the PDO index.

    Green dashed lines in the figures indicate the

    analysis basin (130°E-180°, 25°N-35°N).

    Wu et al., 2020 under review

  • FIG. 7. Time series of time-integrated 7-year running mean mixed layer temperature (Tm) budget equations in

    the analysis basin (130°E-180°, 25°N-35°N, as shown in Fig. 1). Red line denotes Tm, blue line denotes the

    time-integrated Qnet forcing, green line denotes the time-integrated Ekman advective flux convergence, and gray

    dashed lines denotes the time-integrated residual term.

    Wu et al., 2020 under review

  • ➢ Supplementary

    PI-Control model EXP. pre-industrial control simulation by CESM model, in which greenhouse

    gasses are held at a constant level of 1850

    Pacemaker EXP. in which full coupling is permitted everywhere except in the Atlantic, where the observed evolution of SSTs during the positive AMO period from 1979 to 2014 is prescribed into CESM model

    North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water is Controlled by the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

    Pacemaker model experiment forced by the

    positive AMV SSTs. In the Atlantic Ocean,

    observed SST trend (unit in oC/36 yr) from 1979-

    2014 was added in the modelled mixed layer

    temperature in the restoring forcing. In the other

    areas, the mixed-layer temperature was restored to

    the model climatology. Then the climate response

    to the restored ocean temperature was calculated

    by the difference between the Pacemaker

    experiment and a control experiment, in which the

    mixed-layer temperature was restored to the

    model climatology.

  • 0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    wat

    er te

    mpr

    atur

    e

    Min

    Max

    main-min

    main-max

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    4.5

    5.0

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    Trop

    hic

    leve

    l

    Leng

    th (

    cm)

    L-limit

    TL

  • From Yang et al., 2012

    Why AMOC Shutdown Increase Westerly and

    Strom?

    0=+= OHTAHTHTtotalBjerknes Compensation

    Meridional Heat Transport: Total, Atmosphere and Ocean

  • Wu et al., 2020 submitted

  • FIG. 13. Schematic diagram for the different effect from AMO (a, atmospheric teleconnection) and PDO (b, local forcing) on the mixed

    layer variability in the south of Kuroshio region. (a) During the AMO positive phase (2000-2010, warm period of the )The AMO warm

    SST anomaly (the red circle over North Atlantic) would influence the western North Pacific through the atmospheric teleconnections and

    induce the easterly wind anomaly (black arrows) which results in warm Ekman transport. The warm temperature anomaly would

    propagate into the subsurface, increasing the 𝑇𝑚 and upper ocean stratification intensity and shallowing the ℎ𝑚, in the south of Kuroshio.The vice versa for the cold period (1970-1980). The transect is along 32°N and the black solid contour indicates ℎ𝑚 during the warmperiod and dashed contour is its climatology.

    Wu et al., 2020 under review


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