north caucasus turmoil intensifies on europe’s doorstep

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Foreign Policy and Civil Society Program

March 2012

1744 R Street NW

Washington, DC 20009T 1 202 745 3950

F 1 202 265 1662E [email protected]

Summary: There are three

compelling reasons why the

ongoing conict in the North

Caucasus merits more attention.

First, the North Caucasus

insurgency is without doubt one

of the worlds most ruthlessly

efcient and effective jihadi

groups. Second, the North

Caucasus militancy is arguably as

great a threat to political stabilityin Russia as the emerging

protests against President-elect

Vladimir Putin. And third, the

threat posed by the insurgency

does not stop at Russias

borders.

North Caucasus Turmoil Intensifes on

Europes Doorstep

by Aslan Doukaev

A emale suicide bomber killed hersel

and at least ve police ocers onMarch 6, when she blew hersel upat a police checkpoint in a village inDaghestan. She acted in apparentrevenge or the death o her husbandlast month at the hands o securityorces. Tis has become an all tooamiliar story, not just in Daghestan,but across the North Caucasus, whereover the past decade, the initiallypredominantly Chechen militaryresistance to Russia has morphed into

a militant and highly organized Islamicinsurgency.

In Chechnya itsel, erce ghting lastmonth along the border with Dagh-estan le 17 government troops deadand 24 wounded, state news agen-cies quoted Interior Minister RashidNurgaliyev as telling Russian Presi-dent Dmitry Medvedev. Accordingto the same source, the insurgentslost only seven people in the clashes,

which lasted or over a week. It was ahighly unusual admission rom oneo Russias top security ocials, whoare not generally prone to disclose thereal extent o their ailures, preerringinstead to dress them up in euphe-mism and understatement.

One possible explanation or thissurprising candidness is the act thatin the age o mobile telephones itis extremely dicult, i not totally

impossible, to keep a lid on such

events. On February 15, an insurgentcommander succeeded in callingRadio Free Europe/Radio Libertys(RFE/RL) North Caucasus Serviceto report against a background oheavy gunre that on that day alonethe insurgents had killed 4 police o-cers and wounded at least 13.

Another explanation is that develop-ments in the North Caucasus, aermore than 17 years o conict, no

longer generate serious interest in theoutside world. Te events describedabove received only scant coverage inWestern media.

Tere are, however, three compellingreasons why the ongoing conict inthe North Caucasus merits more atten-tion.

First, the North Caucasus insurgencyis without doubt one o the worlds

most ruthlessly ecient and efectivejihadi groups. With a total orce ono more than 1,000 1,500 ghters,it killed an average o two peopleper day last year and perpetrated aterrorist attack on average every otherweek, including the suicide bombingat Moscows Domodedovo airport inJanuary 2011 that killed 40 people.

Te insurgency is headed by DokuUmarov, whom the U.S. State Depart-


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o the worlds main sporting events: it would irrevocably

damage Putins personalized ruling system, which putssecurity and stability beore democracy and human rights.

And third, the threat posed by the insurgency does notstop at Russias borders. Te leaders o the Emirate warnthat their planned Pan-Caucasus Islamic state will extendbeyond the territory o the present Russian Federation.Georgia is their stated rst target. Umarov has alreadyappointed the Emir o Georgia. But Azerbaijan too theconduit or vital oil and gas export pipelines is vulner-able. Azerbaijani ghters are a common sight in rebelgroups in Chechnya and Daghestan.

Umarov has also threatened the West. Te original videostatement on the declaration o the Caucasus Emirate,which RFE/RLs North Caucasus Service managed to obtainbeore it was made public, contained threats to attack theUnited States, the U.K., and Israel in retaliation or theirreluctance to condemn or challenge Russias policies inChechnya. Aer the service broadcast parts o declara-tion, Umarov publicly retracted that threat. It is not clear,however, whether that was a genuine change o heart ora tactical move intended to placate the critics. Umarovssubsequent rhetoric suggests the latter.

For years, Russia employed a two-pronged strategy in theNorth Caucasus. It used brute orce oen indiscrimi-nately and whole-heartedly and money, mostly hal-heartedly and selectively. Te biggest recipients o Russianunds are loyal local amilies and clans, which, like theKadyrov clan in Chechnya, are granted carte blanche toconduct counterinsurgency operations, usually accom-panied by campaigns o kidnapping, torture, and murderagainst suspected insurgents and critics, as long as the efort

The leaders of the Emirate warn

that their planned Pan-Caucasus

Islamic state will extend beyond

the territory of the present Russian

Federation.

ment included on the list o most-wanted terrorists in July

2010, and ofering $5 million or inormation leading tohis capture. In 2007, Umarov had announced the establish-ment o a Caucasus Emirate whose borders encompass theRussian republics o Chechnya, Daghestan, Ingushetia,North Ossetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachayevo-Cher-kessia, and the ederal region o Stavropol.

Whether, as some observers believe,1 Umarov receivesunding rom Al-Qaeda, and that Al-Qaeda has played akey role in proselytizing jihadism to the mujahidin inChechnya and elsewhere in the Caucasus, has not beendenitively proved. Te act remains, however, that in his

regular video addresses, Umarov has repeatedly expressedsupport or Muslims worldwide engaged in jihad, andofered them what help and advice he can give. Chechenghters already occupy prominent positions within somealiban groups.2 Tey also appear to inspire emergingjihadi groups in parts o Central Asia and Russias Volgaregion. aliban commanders, acknowledging that many otheir ghters either ought or trained in Chechnya,3 seek tocoordinate their activities with those o the North Caucasusinsurgency.

Second, the North Caucasus militancy is arguably as greata threat to political stability in Russia and in the longerterm, to the survival o the Russian Federation as theemerging protests against President-elect Vladimir Putin. Itwas, aer all, the then-largely ignored ghting that eruptedin 1988 in Azerbaijans disputed Nagorno-Karabakh regionthat set in motion the chain o events culminating in thecollapse o the Soviet Union three years later.

Soon aer the Black Sea resort town o Sochi won its bidto host the 2014 Olympic Games, the Daghestani militantsvowed to attack any o the so-called Olympic partici-pants who represent the countrys war against Muslims.Te North Caucasus militants have already shown theyare capable o staging attacks in ar-away Moscow. Surely,targeting Sochi, which is only 600 kilometers rom Grozny,cannot be logistically more challenging than targeting thenations capital. Such an attack would not just disrupt one

1 http://csis.org/iles/publication/110930_Hahn_GettingCaucasusEmirateRt_Web.pd

2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eU3tvYp0LNU

3 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9x-IXPdnAI


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About the Author

Aslan Doukaev is the director o the North Caucasus Service or Radio

Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

About GMF

Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-

partisan American public policy and grantmaking institution dedi-

cated to promoting better understanding and cooperation between

North America and Europe on transatlantic and global issues. GMF

does this by supporting individuals and institutions working in the

transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and members o the policy

and business communities, by contributing research and analysis on

transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster

renewed commitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition,

GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democracies.

Founded in 1972 through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memo-

rial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on

both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Wash-

ington, DC, GMF has seven oces in Europe: Berlin, Paris, Brussels,

Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, and Warsaw. GMF also has smaller

representations in Bratislava, urin, and Stockholm.

About the On Wider Europe Series

Tis series is designed to ocus in on key intellectual and policy

debates regarding Western policy toward Wider Europe that other-wise might receive insucient attention. Te views presented in

these papers are the personal views o the authors and not those o

the institutions they represent or Te German Marshall Fund o the

United States.

brings a semblance o stability to the region. It is increas-

ingly obvious that this approach has ailed to bring a lastingsolution to the conict.

Moscow has been relentlessly decimating internationalrepresentation in the North Caucasus or years. Te Orga-nization or Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE),which monitored human rights in Chechnya since 1995,was compelled to close its oce there as o January 1, 2003.No ocial explanation was given but the then RussianForeign Minister Igor Ivanov said the OSCE was not ableto ully realize the new realities in Chechnya meaning,apparently, that the Russian government was unhappy with

OSCE questioning Moscows spin on the situation on theground.

Shortly aerwards, the Russian authorities began to harasshuman rights groups. Foreign NGOs and aid agencies wereefectively squeezed out o Chechnya by the end o 2008.

At the same time, Western media ocus on the NorthCaucasus, and the attention paid by policymakers to theregion, have dwindled as more compelling geo-politicaldevelopments elsewhere rom the Iraq war to the ArabSpring and the Israel-Iran standof have captured worldheadlines. Te resulting dearth o inormation has ed a

vicious circle o neglect o the North Caucasus.

Te West should stop ignoring the conict in the NorthCaucasus and step up its pressure on Moscow to addressthe injustices that uel it. In a word, these are political andeconomic disenranchisement, and the denial o basichuman rights, precisely what helped catalyze the Arabrevolution.

Even i the Russian military succeed in locating and killingUmarov, the younger generation o commanders are equallyradical, i not more so. Once they take over, the West will

have even less chance o understanding, let alone trying toinuence, the dynamics o Russias home-grown jihad.

north caucasus turmoil intensifies on europe’s doorstep

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