normalized metered energy consumption (nmec) explained · 2020-05-11 · 5 normalized metered...
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NormalizedMeteredEnergyConsumption(NMEC)Explained
JenniferBarnes,AESPCaliforniaChapterCarmenBest,Recurve
DavidJump,kWEngineering
May7,2020
Announcements• AESPCaliforniaChapterBoardCallforNominations
– 2OpenPositions:VP,SouthernCalifornia&MembershipChairperson
– Emailbio&[email protected]
• UpcomingWebinar– Wednesday,May20,2020:TRCversusPAC:Howto
ReformCost-EffectivenessforModernDSM
Today’sPresenters
• CarmenBest,DirectorofPolicy&EmergingMarketsforRecurve
• DavidJump.Ph.D.,P.E.,CMVP,DirectorforkWEngineering
5
NormalizedMeteredEnergyConsumption
“The energy efficiency savings and demand reduction . . . achieving the targets established pursuant to paragraph (doubling of EE by 2030) shall be measured taking into consideration the overall reduction in normalized metered electricity and natural gas consumption where these measurement techniques are feasible and cost effective.” Link: https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160SB350
SB-350 Clean Energy and Pollution Reduction Act of 2015. (2015-2016)
6
NormalizedMeteredEnergyConsumption
". . . increase the energy efficiency of existing buildings based on all estimated energy savings and energy usage reductions, taking into consideration the overall reduction in normalized metered energy consumption as a measure of energy savings. Those programs shall include energy usage reductions resulting from the adoption of a measure or installation of equipment required for modifications to existing buildings to bring them into conformity with, or exceed, the requirements of Title 24 of the California Code of Regulations . . ." Link: https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160AB802
AB-802 Energy efficiency.(2015-2016)
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● TheRulingwasmodeledaftertheregulatoryrequirementsforbehaviorprograms.
● Intendedtoprovidemoretimelyinformationtocustomers,program
administratorsandregulatorsonperformancewithoutsignificantre-castingofsavingsonanexpostbasis.
● Upfrontagreementandreviewofmethodsappropriatefortheprogram
andinsomecasesforthespecificproject● Processofadviceletterreviewservedasthe“caselaw”documentingthe
detaileddirectionontheproposalsandmethodscomingfromtheCommission.
RulingonHighOpportunityProgramsandProjects-CPUC2015
CPUCResponseintheNMECRuling
PG&EResidentialPay-for-
Performance
• FlexibilityPurchaseAgreement(FPA)• 3xKickerforsummersavingsfrom4pmto9pm• PaymentsbasedonCalTRACK/OpenEEmeter 8
Resource Curve
Duck Curve
23% of Projects
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2.5X Greater Savings
70% Fewer
Negatives
23% of Projects
10
2.7X Avoided GhGs
3x Avoided
Cost
ComparisonGroups-MacroAnalysis
NMECMeter-BasedChangesin
ConsumptionIntegratedDistributedEnergyResources(techneutralcontracts)
DistributionPlanningAdvisoryGroup(DPAG)(modelingassumptions)
EnergyEfficiencyPortfolio
(BusinessPlans)
IntegratedResourcePlan(CarbonOptimized)
DistributedResourcePlans(geographicneed)
Resource
MarketTransformationCodes&
Standards
DemandAnalysisWorkingGroup
(DAWG)
Shouldbe1stpriority P4P
WorkforceE&T
Non-Resource
DRIVE-Transportation
IEPR-CECLoadForecast
BUILD-TECHDecarbonization
SiloedRegulations&Programs
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NormalizedMeteredEnergyConsumption
NMEC–aNewApproach• Ameter-basedapproachtoquantifyingsavings
– Quantifiessavingsascustomersperceivethem:atthemeter– RequiresmeterdatabeforeandafterEEMsinstalled– AllowsP4P:Incentivespaidondemonstratedsavings
• Deemedandcustomestimatesavingspriortoinstallation– Subjecttomeasurecategoriesandrulesregardingbaselines
• NMECestimatessavingspost-installation– Existingconditionsbaseline
• Site-levelNMECprovidesperformancefeedback– Enablescorrectionofpoorperformance– Promotessavingspersistence
OptionC–“AvoidedEnergyUse”
BaselinePeriod InstallationPeriod Post-InstallationPeriod
Energy
Time
Savings
Predictedbybaselinemodel:Whatbaselineusewouldhavebeen
1.Developmodel2.Predictuseunderpostconditions3.Estimatesavings
OptionC-NormalizedSavings
BaselinePeriod
InstallationPeriod
Post-InstallationPeriod
NormalConditionsPeriod(e.gCACZlongtermtypicalweather)
Predictedbybaselinemodel:Whatbaselineusewouldhavebeen
Predictedbypost-installmodel:Whatpost-installationusewouldhavebeen
NormalizedSavings
Energy
Time
AdvancedM&VAMI data:
Short time scale High volume
Greater access
Advanced analytics Automated processing
– Fasterfeedbackonperformanceandsavings– Higheraccuracyovermonthlybillinganalysis– Captureofinteractiveeffects– Time-of-dayandseasonalsavingsfeedback
AdvancedAnalytics• Familiar
– LinearOLSRegression
• MoreAdvanced– ASHRAERP1050Change-PointModels– LBNLTemperatureandTime-of-WeekModel
• Exotic– NeuralNetwork– GradientBoostingMachine– RandomForest– MuchMore..
AM&VTools• ‘nmecr’https://github.com/kW-Labs/nmecr
– TOWT,TOW,change-point,SLR,HDD-CDDmodels,Rpackage
• EnergyChartingandMetrics(ECAM)www.sbwconsulting.com/ecam– change-pointmodels,MSExceladd-in
• RMV2.0https://github.com/LBNL-ETA/RMV2.0– TOWT&GBMmodels,Rpackage
• OpenEEMeterhttps://github.com/openeemeter/eemeter– ImplementsCALTRACKmethods,Pythonpackage
• UniversalTranslatorM&VAnalysismodulehttp://utonline.org/cms/– TOWT,TOW,change-pointmodels,Desktopapplication
ModelGuidance• BaselineModels
– NMBE(biaserror)<0.5%– CV(RMSE)(randomerror)<25%– R2(explanatorypowerofind.vars.)>0.7– Savings‘detectableabovemodelvariations’
• Uncertainty(90%CI)<50%(ofsavings)
• BestPractices– Weathercoverage– Linearrelationship– Correctmodelspecification– Normalityofresiduals– Homoskedasticity
https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/General.aspx?id=6442456320
Example• LinearOLSModel
• Temperatureonly• CV=25%
� Advanced Model � Temperature and Time-of-Week � CV = 11%
CPUCRulebookSite-Level NMEC Requirements (partial list)
Existing buildings or similar use portions of industrial facilities
Target 10% or more savings - provide explanation how < 10% savings distinguishable from the noise
Customized to a particular site & its drivers of energy use
Full descriptions of methodology for calculating NMEC savings: analytical methods, software, data, sources, etc.
Documentation of expected costs, energy and demand savings
3-year maintenance plans for BRO measures
Weighted average EUL
Provide live calculations and data (provisions for submittal of proprietary software)
CPUC reviews are for early feedback and to inform evaluation
Site-LevelRisks• Buildingnot‘predictable’
– Energyusenotexplainedbyweatherorschedule– Modelingalgorithmsinsufficient– ToomanyNREs– Addressedthroughpre-screening
Predictable Unpredictable
Site-LevelRisks• Non-RoutineEvents(NREs)
– ChangesinbuildingoroperationsunrelatedtoEEMs– Addedorremovedload– Detectionrequiresperiodiccheck-inormonitoring– SavingsmustbeadjustedforsignificantNREs
Baseline Period Install Period Performance Period
1. Feasibility Report - EEMs - Expected savings & costs - Weighted EUL - Site-level M&V Plan
2. Installation Report - Verify installed
EEMs - Actual costs
3. Savings Report - Per M&V Plan - Raw data to final savings - Live calcs provided
5. Progress Reports 4. Pre-Screen Report - ‘Predictability’ - Deep savings - NREs
A Site-Level NMEC Process
What’sGreatAboutNMEC?• Potentiallystreamlinesaccountingofsavings
– MoreresourcesforfindingEEMs(&DERS!)
• Motivatesparticipantstodomore
What’sGreatAboutNMEC?• Feedbackonperformance
– AssureEEMseffective– Largerroleforenergymanagementtools(EMIS)
Grocery store during COVID period Compressor racks reaching full capacity (rare previously) - massive restocking?
Other‘Opportunities’model misspecification autocorrelation machine learning
Thank you! Questions? email [email protected]
indicator variables
COVID
30
Marketsarecomplex...
...enablesettlementatthemeter.
• StandardM&VCalculationMethods
• Monthly,Daily,andHourly
• PublicStakeholdersEmpiricalProcess
• www.CalTRACK.org
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• PythonCalTRACKEngine
• OpenSourceApache2.0
• HowItWorks:https://goo.gl/mhny2s
• CodeRepo:https://goo.gl/qFdW4P
RevenueGrade=Transparent,Consistent,Repeatable
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ManageRiskacrossthePopulation&OptimizewithinthePopulation
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ForMoreDetail:CPUCReleasesVersion2.0oftheMeter-BasedNMECRulebook
Pre-Defined&Consistent
Measurementmethodsandcalculationsoftwarearesetbeforetheprogramstarts(andnotsubsequentlychanged)andapplytoallsitesinauniformfashion
ProgramFitProgramsmustmeetthePopulation-levelNMECregulatoryandfilingrequirementsdescribedinthisdocument;
Population-LevelNMEC
Meter-BasedEnergysavingsdeterminationsaremadeusinganNMECapproachbasedonpreandpost-interventionenergyusagedataobservedatthemeter
PerformanceAccountability
Contractors
LoadServingEntity
PrivateCapital
PerformanceRisk
EfficiencyBusinesses
Utility
Measurement
ProjectFinance Insurance
Aggregators
Channels
Buildings
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Planning/Evaluation
Regulatory
LoadForecast
StateEnergyOfficeorRTO
PopulationNMECM&VPlan&ComplianceChecklist
ImpactEvaluationSpecificationComparisonGroupMethods
-MatchingApproach&Criteria-StatisticalMetrics
BUSINESSMODELS
SavingsComfortHealth
3RDPartyProviders(aggregators)
ServicesandProducts
ConsumerFinance
ProjectFinance
SalesandMarketing
ContractorManagement
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DEMANDFLEXIBILITY
MarketScalabilityasaResource
CarmenBestDirectorofPolicy&[email protected]
Q&A• We’llunmutethelinessoyoucanaskyourquestionsverbally
• Youmayalsopostyourquestionsinthechatbox
ThankyouforJoiningUs!• Don’tforgetaboutourupcomingwebinar:
– Wednesday,May20,2020– TRCversusPAC:HowtoReformCost-EffectivenessforModernDSM• AdamScheer,DirectorofCustomerSolutionsfor
Recurve• MohitChhabra,SeniorScientist,Climate&Clean
EnergyProgramforNRDC
APPENDIXSLIDES
40
PopulationNMECM&VPlan&ComplianceChecklist
ImpactEvaluationSpecificationComparisonGroupMethods
-MatchingApproach&Criteria-StatisticalMetrics
"Proprietary Methods & Software: Savings measurementmethodsandcalculationsoftwarethatispublic,andespeciallythosethatareopen-source,benefitfromastakeholdervettingprocess that allows experts and practitioners to share theirknowledge and use updated information to inform savingsestimates.TheCommissionhassupportedthedevelopmentofpublic,open-sourceprocessestodevelopNMECmethods(e.g.CALTRACK) and encourages stakeholders to engage in theseopen-sourceinitiatives."p.18
RulebookforProgramsandProjectsBasedonNormalizedMeteredEnergyConsumption
Version2.0ReleaseDate:7January,2020
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Reproducible Execution
Professional Guidance
Framework (2004)
TimeofWeek&Temperature
ModelProtocols
(2006)
IPMVP Option (C)
M&VProtocolsandstandards...
...enablesettlement.
42https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/
2019_energypolicy/documents/#08272019
2019EnergyEfficiencyPlan-DoublingEfficiency
- “Develophourlyandlocationalaggregatedenergyconsumptiondatasets”
- “DevelophourlyenergyefficiencysavingsestimatesfromintervalmeterdatatoverifyandforecastSB350targets.”
- “Stateagenciesshouldcollaborate...dataanalytics,warehouses,modelingmethods,etc.”
- “developabilitytoincorporateaggregationsofenergyefficiencyanddemandresponseprogramsintolongtermplanning”
- “incorporatemeter-basedanalysisintopotentialstudiestoidentifycosteffectivesavingspotential.”
“With current savings projections, the state is missing the 2030 goal in terms of avoided GHG emissions.” p4
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EfficiencyFeedbackloop-StatusQuoGoals&Potential
MeasurebasedanalysisTechnologycostsdriver
EvaluationHighimpactmeasures
Deemedestimateupdate
Implementation/TrackingMeasurebaseddeploymentFixedLoadshape
Program/BusinessPlansMeasureBasedProgramsCEPortfoliooptimization
-Savingsgoals-Measure-based-Portfoliodefault
+Meter-based+PayforPerformance
+Thirdparty%
+Non-Utilityprograms
+Markettransformation+Decarbonization+Holisticanalysis+Fasterturnaround
+"Topdown"
+NMECPotential
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EfficiencyFeedbackloop-Reinvisioned
LocalizedPotentialActuarialconsumption
Marginalprice
EvaluationValidation/Verification Implementation/Tracking
Meter-based/TimeValuationActualLoadshapeReporting
Program/BusinessPlansCarbonoptimizationLocalizedResourceProcurementPlan
+AvoidedCostGoals+Meter-based+Procurement