Norges Bank’s regional network

Survey 2016 3, National Charts

Interviews carried out 4 - 26 August

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-6

-4

-2

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10

Past 3 months Next 6 months

1 Output growth. AggregatedPast 3 months and next 6 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent (annualised), right-hand scale

¹ The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: freshand useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-5-4-3-2-1012345

-10-8-6-4-20246810

Oil service industry (old series)*Domestically-oriented manufacturingExport industry**

Domestically-oriented oil service industry***Export-oriented oil service industry****

2 Output growth. Manufacturing and oil service industryPast 3 months and next 6 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent (annualised), right-hand scale

* Manufacturing enterprises with deliveries to the petroleum industry on the Norwegian continental shelf Œ terminated series (2003-2014).** Up to and including the 4/2014 survey, this series also contained petroleum-specific deliveries of goods to other countries. These deliveries are excluded as from the 1/2015 survey.*** Includes petroleum-specific deliveries of goods and services to the Norwegian market.****Includes petroleum-specific deliveries of goods and services to other countries. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Retail tradeCommercial services*

Household servicesConstruction

3 Output growth. Retail trade, services and constructionPast 3 months and next 6 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent (annualised), right-hand scale

* Up to and including the 4/2014 survey, this series contains some petroleum-specific deliveries of services. These deliveries are excluded as from the 1/2015 survey. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

Capacity constraints¹ Labour supply²

4 Capacity constraints and labour supply. AggregatedPercent

¹ Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problemsaccommodating an increase in demand.² Share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply.

Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

ManufacturingConstructionRetail trade

ServicesOil service industry

5 Capacity constraints¹. All sectorsPercent

¹ Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problemsaccommodating an increase in demand. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

ManufacturingConstructionLocal government and hospital sector

Retail tradeServicesOil service industry

6 Labour supply¹. All sectorsPercent

¹ Share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply.Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

7 Capacity constraints. All regions. AggregatedShare of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodatingan increase in demand

NO

RTHMay 2016

SOUTH

SOUTH WEST

NORTH WEST

MID- NORWAY

IN- LAND

EAST

7a Capacity constraints. All regions. Aggregated. Previous round

Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

NO

RTHAugust 2016

< 15%

15-24%

25-34%

35-44%

45-54%

55-64%

65%>

SOUTH

SOUTH WEST

NORTH WEST

MID- NORWAY

IN- LAND

EAST

7b Capacity constraints. All regions. Aggregated. Last round

Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

8 Labour supply. All regions. AggregatedShare of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply

NO

RTHMay 2016

SOUTH

SOUTH WEST

NORTH WEST

MID- NORWAY

IN- LAND

EAST

8a Labour supply. All regions. Aggregated. Previous round

Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

NO

RTHAugust 2016

< 5%

5-14%

15-24%

25-34%

35-44%

45-54%

55%>

SOUTH

SOUTH WEST

NORTH WEST

MID- NORWAY

IN- LAND

EAST

8b Labour supply. All regions. Aggregated. Last round

Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4

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-1

0

1

2

3

4

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

9 Investment growth. AggregatedExpected change in investment next12 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent, right-hand scale

Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

ManufacturingRetail tradeServices

Local government and hospital sectorOil service industry

10 Investment growth. All sectorsExpected change in investment next 12 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent, right-hand scale

Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Past 3 months Next 3 months

11 Employment growth. AggregatedPast 3 months and next 3 months¹Percent

¹ Mixed indicator until 2004. Split into ’past 3 months’ andnext 3 months’ as from 2005. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

ManufacturingConstructionLocal government and hospital sector

Retail tradeServicesOil service industry

12 Employment growth. All sectorsPast 3 months and next 3 months¹Percent

¹ Mixed indicator until 2004. Split into ’past 3 months’ andnext 3 months’ as from 2005. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

ManufacturingConstructionLocal government and hospital sectorRetail trade

ServicesOil service industryAggregated

13 Annual wage growth. Aggregated and all sectorsContacts’ estimates for each year¹Index² - left-hand scale, percent - right-hand scale

¹ As from 2010, the first observation for wage growth is collected in November the previous year. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160

1

2

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4

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7

8

9

0

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3

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5

6

7

8

9

RN (autumn previous year)RN winterRN spring

RN summerRN autumnTBU¹

14 Annual wage growth. AggregatedTechnical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements (TBU) compared withnetwork contacts’ estimates (RN). Percent

¹ For 2010: Wage growth for employees at enterprises affiliated to anemployer organisation and in the public administration includingthe health trusts. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

15 Selling prices. AggregatedChange past 12 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent, right-hand scale

Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-10

-8

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-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Domestically oriented manufacturingExport industry

Domestically-oriented oil service industryExport-oriented oil service industry

16 Selling prices. Manufacturing and oil service industryChange past 12 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent, right-hand scale

Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-10

-8

-6

-4

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0

2

4

6

8

10

Retail tradeCommercial services

Household servicesConstruction

17 Selling prices. Retail trade, services and constructionChange past 12 monthsIndex¹, left-hand scale; percent, right-hand scale

Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201620

30

40

50

60

70

80

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30

40

50

60

70

80

18 Selling prices 12 months ahead. AggregatedExpected change in rise in pricesDiffusion index¹

¹ Share that expects higher rise in prices + (1/2 * share that expects prices to remain unchanged) Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201620

30

40

50

60

70

80

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Business sector² Household sector³

19 Selling prices next 12 months. Business and household sectorExpected change in rise in pricesDiffusion index¹

¹ Share that expects higher rise in prices + (1/2 * share that expects rise in prices to remain unchanged).² Manufacturing, oil service industry, construction, commercial services.³ Retail trade, household services. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4

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20 Profitability. AggregatedChange in operating margins past 3 months compared to same period a year earlier.Index¹

¹ The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: freshand useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information. Source: Norges Bank’s regional network