non traditional security (asean)

NonNon--Traditional Security : Traditional Security : Trends and IssuesTrends and Issues

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OutlineOutline

Th W ld i Ch i• The World is Changing

• Global Responses to• Global Responses to Global Threats

• Country and Regional Imbalance

C d I• Cases and Issues

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The World is Changingg g

Emerging GlobalizationEmerging Globalization

The End of Cold WarThe End of Cold War

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GlobalizationGlobalization

Definition

• According to the Oxford English Dictionary, theAccording to the Oxford English Dictionary, the word "globalization" was first employed in a publication entitled Towards New Education inpublication entitled Towards New Education in 1952, to denote a holistic view of human

i i d tiexperience in education.

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Definition• An early description of globalization was penned y p g pby the founder of the Bible Student movement Charles Taze Russell who coined the termCharles Taze Russell who coined the term 'corporate giants' in 1897.

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Definition

• Thomas L. Friedman has examined the impact ofThomas L. Friedman has examined the impact of the "flattening" of the world, and argues that globalized trade outsourcing supply chainingglobalized trade, outsourcing, supply‐chaining, and political forces have changed the world

l f b h b lpermanently, for both better and worse. He also argues that the pace of globalization is quickening and will continue to have a growing impact on business organization and practice.g p

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Definition• The movement towards the expansion of peconomic and social ties between countries through the spread of corporate institutions andthrough the spread of corporate institutions and the capitalist philosophy that leads to the shrinking of the world in economic terms.shrinking of the world in economic terms.

http://www.bized.co.th 8

Globalization EffectGlobalization Effect

• Industrial

• Financial• Competition

• CulturalFinancial

• EconomicCultural

• Social• Job Market

• Political• Technical

• Legal/EthicalPolitical

• Informational• Legal/Ethical

• Religious• Language

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• Industrial – emergence of worldwide production markets and broader access to a range of foreign g gproducts for consumers and companies. Particularly movement of material and goodsParticularly movement of material and goods between and within national boundaries. International trade in manufactured goodsInternational trade in manufactured goods increased more than 100 times (from $95 billion

$12 illi ) i h 50 i 1955to $12 trillion) in the 50 years since 1955.

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• Financial – emergence of worldwide financial markets and better access to external financing for gborrowers. By the early part of the 21st century more than $1 5 trillion in national currencies weremore than $1.5 trillion in national currencies were traded daily to support the expanded levels of trade and investmenttrade and investment.

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• Economic – realization of a global common market, based on the freedom of exchange of ggoods and capital.

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• Job Market ‐ competition in a global job market. In the past, the economic fate of workers was tied pto the fate of national economies. With the advent of the information age and improvements inof the information age and improvements in communication, this is no longer the case. Because workers compete in a global marketBecause workers compete in a global market, wages are less dependent on the success or failure of individual economies. This has had a major effect on wages and income distribution.

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• Political – some use "globalization" to mean the creation of a world government which regulates g gthe relationships among governments and guarantees the rights arising from social andguarantees the rights arising from social and economic globalization.

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• Political – the United States has enjoyed a position of power among the world powers, in part p g p pbecause of its strong and wealthy economy. With the influence of globalization and with the help ofthe influence of globalization and with the help of the United States’ own economy.

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• Political – the People's Republic of China has experienced some tremendous growth within the p gpast decade. If China continues to grow at the rate projected by the trends then it is very likely thatprojected by the trends, then it is very likely that in the next twenty years, there will be a major reallocation of power among the world leadersreallocation of power among the world leaders. China will have enough wealth, industry, and technology to rival the United States for the position of leading world power.

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• Informational – increase in information flows between geographically remote locations. g g p yArguably this is a technological change with the advent of fiber optic communications satellitesadvent of fiber optic communications, satellites, and increased availability of telephone and InternetInternet.

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• Language – the most spoken first language is – Mandarin (845 million speakers) ( p )

– Spanish (329 million speakers)

English (328 million speakers)– English (328 million speakers).

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• Language – However the most popular second language is undoubtedly English, g g y g– About 35% of the world's mail, telexes, and cables are in English.in English.

– Approximately 40% of the world's radio programs are in Englishin English.

– English is the dominant language on the Internet.

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• Competition – Survival in the new global business market calls for improved productivity and p p yincreased competition. Due to the market becoming worldwide companies in variousbecoming worldwide, companies in various industries have to upgrade their products and use technology skillfully in order to face increasedtechnology skillfully in order to face increased competition.

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• Ecological – the advent of global environmental challenges that might be solved with international g gcooperation, such as climate change, cross‐boundary water and air pollution over‐fishing ofboundary water and air pollution, over fishing of the ocean, and the spread of invasive species. Since many factories are built in developingSince many factories are built in developing countries with less environmental regulation, globalism and free trade may increase pollution and impact on precious fresh water resources.

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• Cultural – growth of cross‐cultural contacts; advent of new categories of consciousness and gidentities which embodies cultural diffusion, the desire to increase one's standard of living anddesire to increase one s standard of living and enjoy foreign products and ideas, adopt new technology and practices and participate in atechnology and practices, and participate in a "world culture".

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• Cultural – Spreading of multiculturalism, and better individual access to cultural diversity (e.g. y ( gthrough the export of Hollywood and K‐POP).

Others consider multiculturalism to promote peace and understanding between people.

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• Cultural – A third position that gained popularity is the notion that multiculturalism to a new form of monoculture in which no distinctions exist and everyone shifts between various lifestyles in termseveryone shifts between various lifestyles in terms of music, cloth and other aspects once more firmly attached to a single cultureattached to a single culture.

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• Cultural – A third position that gained popularity is the notion that multiculturalism to a new form of monoculture in which no distinctions exist and everyone shifts between various lifestyles in termseveryone shifts between various lifestyles in terms of music, cloth and other aspects once more firmly attached to a single cultureattached to a single culture.

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• Social – development of the system of non‐governmental organizations as main agents of g g gglobal public policy, including humanitarian aid and developmental effortsand developmental efforts.

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• Technical ‐ Development of a Global Information System, global telecommunications infrastructure y gand greater transborder data flow, using such technologies as the Internet communicationtechnologies as the Internet, communication satellites, submarine fiber optic cable, and wireless telephoneswireless telephones.

Increase in the number of standards applied globally; e.g., copyright laws, patents and world trade agreements.trade agreements.

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• Legal/Ethical ‐ The creation of the international criminal court and international justice jmovements.

Crime importation and raising awareness of global crime‐fighting efforts and cooperation.

The emergence of Global administrative law.

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• Religious ‐ The spread and increased interrelations of various religious groups, ideas, and practices g g p pand their ideas of the meanings and values of particular spacesparticular spaces.

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Globalization could involve all these things!

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Th L F i dThomas L. Friedman31

Feasibility: The Shrinking Globe

1500 -1840 1850 - 1930 1950s 1960s1500 1840 1850 1930 1950s 1960s

Propeller Jet

Best average speed of horse-drawn coaches

Steam locomotives average 65 mph. S hi

Propeller aircraft300 - 400

Jet passenger aircraft, horse drawn coaches

and sailing ships, 10 mph.

Steamships average 36 mph.

mph. 500 - 700 mph.

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Globalization 1 0Globalization 1.0

• Start: 1492 (Columbus Discovered America)

• End:1800End:1800

Player: Country

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Globalization 2.0First Half

• Falling of Transportation CostFalling of Transportation Cost

• Steam Engine

• Rail RoadPlayer: Multinational CompanyPlayer: Multinational Company

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Second Half

• Falling of Telecommunication CostFalling of Telecommunication Cost

• Telegraph

• Telephone

• PCPC

• Fiber Optics

• WWWPlayer: Multinational CompanyPlayer: Multinational Company

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37(c) Venkatraman, 2008


• Start: 2000

Player: Individual

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ENGINEERINGENGINEERINGSoftware

????

T h S

??ServicesSocial NetworkSocial Network

Tech Support

Medical

?? Design??

LEGALBPOCall Centers R&D

Analytics

??

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LEGALAnalytics

Globalization 1 0 – 3 0Globalization 1.0 – 3.0

Globalization Globalization GlobalizationGlobalization 1.0

C

Globalization 2.0

C

Globalization 3.0

I di id lCountry Company Individual

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10 Forces ThatFlattened The World

• Berlin Wall Coming Down • Offshoring• Netscape IPO

W k Fl S ft• Supply‐chaining

I i• Work Flow Software

• Uploading• Insourcing

• In‐forming• Outsourcing

g• The Steroids

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Triple ConvergenceTriple Convergence

• The Flatteners

• New Habits Skills and Processes• New Habits, Skills and Processes• A few billion new players

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Convergence 1 The Flatteners

• The flatteners started in about 1990.

• They had to spread take root and connect• They had to spread, take root and connect.

• SW Airlines let people make reservations and p pprint their own boarding passes.

f• Several firms built machines that would print, fax, scan, email, and copy.print, fax, scan, email, and copy.

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Convergence 1 – The FlattenersConvergence 1 – The Flatteners

• Complementary goods are each better because of the otherbecause of the other.

• We had a flat, global, web‐enabled playing field for collaboration, sharing of knowledge and work without regard to geographyand work without regard to geography, distance, or (soon) language.

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Convergence 2 New Habits, Skills and Processes

• New technology and new ways of doing businessbusiness

• Wal‐Mart’s Big Box stores along with a supply chain that ensured the stock was on the shelfthe shelf.

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Convergence 2 New Habits, Skills and Processes

• HP, Cisco and Nokia collaborated on the camera phonecamera phone.

• All the airlines are now letting you make your reservations, pick your seats, print your boarding passesboarding passes.

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Convergence 3 A few billion new players

• China, India, Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Central Asia brought newAmerica, and Central Asia brought new players to the game.

• They did not go to the playing field, the playing field came to themplaying field came to them.

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Convergence 3 A few billion new players

• Because many of these new players did not have legacy systems in place they could gohave legacy systems in place, they could go straight to the latest technology. Many Chi ki d l d li f llChinese skipped over land lines for cell phones. South Korea has much greater p ginternet usage and broadband penetration.

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Cli t Ch• Climate Change

• Competition Over Resources

• Marginalization of gthe Majority World

• Global Militarization50

Climate ChangeClimate Change

• The effects of climate change would lead to increased human suffering, greater social unrest, g grevised patterns of living and the pressure of greatly increased levels of migration across thegreatly increased levels of migration across the world.

• This has long‐term security implications for allThis has long term security implications for all countries which are far more serious, lasting and destructive than those of international terrorismdestructive than those of international terrorism.

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Climate ChangeClimate Change

• The Social Impacts of Climate Change

• Nuclear is not the Answer• Nuclear is not the Answer

• Renewable Energygy

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Competition over ResourcesCompetition over Resources

• Industrialized and industrializing states are increasingly dependent on importedincreasingly dependent on imported resources, especially oil and gas.

• Oil is currently the main marketed fossil fuel• Oil is currently the main marketed fossil fuel and the Persian Gulf is the dominant region, with two‐thirds of world reserves.

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• ‘Water politics’ already plays a part in conflict in some regions of the worldconflict in some regions of the world, particularly the Middle East.

• Demand for fresh water is well beyond that• Demand for fresh water is well beyond that which can be sustained at current, much less future, levels.

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• The Resource Shift

• Oil and US Security• Oil and US Security

• Water Politics

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Marginalization of the Majority WorldMarginalization of the Majority World

• While overall global wealth has increased, the benefits of this economic growth havethe benefits of this economic growth have not been equally shared, with a very heavy

i f h i l i l fconcentration of growth in relatively few parts of the world.p

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• These divisions are being exacerbated by increasing oppression and political exclusionincreasing oppression and political exclusion, coupled with a growing sense of

i li i l f imarginalization as a result of improvements in education and modern communication technologies, leading in places to increased levels of political violencelevels of political violence.

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• Current security policies and the ‘war on terror’ are not reacting appropriately to thisterror are not reacting appropriately to this key trend, and are actually causing an i i f di l d i lincrease in support for radical and violent movements such as the al‐Qaida network.Q

• • Policies to control such developments will need to go beyond traditional methods of counterterrorism to incorporate a widecounterterrorism to incorporate a wide range of conflict prevention and resolution

th d b t i f th t i l d59


• The Security Implications of HIV/AIDS

• Socio economic Divisions• Socio‐economic Divisions

• The ‘War on Terror’

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Global MilitarizationGlobal Militarization

• The current focus is on maintaining international security by the vigorous use ofinternational security by the vigorous use of military force.

• Post‐Cold War nuclear developments involve the modernization and proliferation ofthe modernization and proliferation of nuclear systems, with an increasing risk of limited nuclear weapons use in warfare –breaking a threshold that has held for 60breaking a threshold that has held for 60 years. 61


• Biological weapons have the potential to become effective weapons of war givenbecome effective weapons of war, given likely developments in genetic manipulation d bi h l h i i fand biotechnology. The negotiation of a

much strengthened Biological and Toxin g gWeapons Convention should be a priority.

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• Forces in Transition

• The 9/11 Attacks and After• The 9/11 Attacks and After

• Weapons of Mass Destructionp

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Country and RegionalCountry and Regional ImbalanceImbalance

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape65

Country and Regional ImbalanceCountry and Regional Imbalance

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Country and Regional ImbalanceCountry and Regional Imbalance

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PerceptionPerception

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Thailand’s NTS IssuesThailand’s NTS Issues

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Political TurmoilPolitical TurmoilCauses of ConflictCauses of Conflict 71

Pareto AnalysisPareto Analysis

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Clash between Clash between Conservative & ProgressiveConservative & ProgressiveConservative & ProgressiveConservative & Progressive

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Security Sector Governance (SSG)Security Sector Governance (SSG)

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Groups of Power in ThailandGroups of Power in Thailand

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Equilibrium State for Thai SocietyEquilibrium State for Thai Society

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Thailand’s Southern Provinces Thailand’s Southern Provinces InsurgencyInsurgency 81

Causes of ConflictCauses of Conflict

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Asymmetric WarfareAsymmetric Warfare

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Causes of ConflictCauses of Conflict

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Conflict and ComplicationConflict and ComplicationConflict and ComplicationConflict and Complication

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A Solution in the Past

Phase I : Sponsor Block

Phase II : Military Push

Phase III : Forgive and Forget

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A Conceptp

“P liti l L di“Political Leading

th Milit O ti ”the Military Operations”

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An Ultimate Gold

“All Thais are living together in the

f l d H i ti ”peaceful way and Harmonization.”

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A Conceptp

“S i lt L di“Socio-culture Leading

th Milit O ti ”the Military Operations”

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A Solution Framework

Phase I : Stabilize

Phase II : Strike Back

Ph III H iPhase III : Harmonize

Ph IV S t iPhase IV : Sustain

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A Solution Driven

“All Thais are

Social

All Thais are living together in the peaceful way

and

Social&

&Economic

and Harmonization.”

Social &Military

• Phase IV• Sustain

&Political

• Phase III• Harmonize

• Phase II• Strike Back

Military

• Phase I• Stabilize 93

Insurgency Conclusionsg y

• Cause of the insurgency is not the religious• Cause of the insurgency is not the religious.

• The contexts of Thailand’s southern provinces are• The contexts of Thailand s southern provinces are

causes of the insurgency.causes of the insurgency.

• It takes time to come to an end (more than 10

years).

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Conclusions Conclusions 95

Can AEAN accommodate global risks and opportunities?

Our Solution98

Our Solution

Last WordsLast Words

“The world is not dangerous “The world is not dangerous because of those who do harm because of those who do harm because o t ose o do abecause o t ose o do a

but because of those who look at but because of those who look at it without doing anything.”it without doing anything.”g y gg y g

Albert Einstein

Hence, we must cooperate to make the world a better Hence, we must cooperate to make the world a better i i i i i i ii i i i i i iplace to live in and we will consider it our mission to place to live in and we will consider it our mission to

assist our country assist our country our region and our region and the world. the world.

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non traditional security (asean)

Documents

economic terms

oxford english dictionary

globalizationdefinition

internationaltradeinmanu

trade outsourcing supply

improvements incommunication

information age

impact ofthomasl