noaa water resources prediction · 2019-04-22 · 3 involves the entire us weather, water and...
TRANSCRIPT
NOAA Water Resources Prediction
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The Interstate Council on Water Policy/National Water Supply Alliance Washington, DC Roundtable Meeting
April 3, 2019
Presentation Outline
•NWS Strategic Vision and Plan
•National Water Center
•Key Partnerships
•National Water Model
•Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service
•Summary
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3Involves the entire US Weather, Water and Climate Enterprise working together
NOAA NWS Strategic Vision/Societal Outcome: A Weather-Ready Nation
• Society is prepared for and responds to weather, water, and climate dependent events
• Build community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water, and climate events
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NOAA NWS Strategic Plan 2019-2022: Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Released March 26, 2019
https://www.weather.gov/media/wrn/NWS_Weather-Ready-Nation_Strategic_Plan_2019-2022.pdf
Overarching Goals:• Reduce the impacts of weather, water, and
climate events by transforming the way people receive, understand, and act on information
• Harness cutting-edge science, technology, and engineering to provide the best observations, forecasts, and warnings
• Evolve the NWS to excel in the face of change through investment in our people, partnerships, and organizational performance
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NOAA NWS Strategic Plan 2019-2022: Water-Specific Goals
https://www.weather.gov/media/wrn/NWS_Weather-Ready-Nation_Strategic_Plan_2019-2022.pdf
• Deliver actionable water resources information from national to street-level and across all time scales;
• Provide minutes-to-months river forecasts that quantify both atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainty;
• Improve forecasts of total water in the coastal zone by linking terrestrial and coastal models in partnership with the National Ocean Service; and
• Deliver forecasts of flood inundation linked with other geospatial information to inform life-saving decisions.
National Water Center
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• Center of excellence for water resources science and prediction
• Catalyst to transform water prediction through enterprise collaboration
• Operations Center for water resources common operating picture and decision support services on all time scales
Initial Operating Capacity: May 26, 2015
NWC has hosted more than 80 scientific meetings with over 2800 participants
March 21, 2019
• Federal Agencies including Integrated Water Resources Science & Services (IWRSS)
Water Information and Science
US Army Corpsof Engineers
Water Prediction
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Water Management
FEMA Response and Mitigation
Key Partnerships
• Academia/Research including National Science Foundation, CUAHSI, UCAR, NCAR
• Water Resources Managers, Emergency Managers, and other Enterprise Stakeholders
Setting the Stage for Transformation
Centralized Water Forecasting Demo
(2015)
National Water Model (NWM) Development and Demonstration
Centralized Water Resources Data Services
Water Resources Test and Evaluation Service
Enhanced Water Prediction Capability
(2016)
Hyper-Resolution Modeling
Real-Time Flood Forecast Inundation Mapping
Enhance Impact-Based Water Resources Decision Support Services
Integrated Water Prediction
(2017)
Stand up the NWC Operations Center
Increase HPC capacity
Couple terrestrial freshwater and coastal estuary models for total water prediction
National Water ModelV1.0 Implemented August 16, 2016
•Continental-scale water resources model providing high resolution, spatially continuous estimates of major water cycle components
•Operational forecast streamflow guidance for currently underserved locations: 3,600 forecast points 2.7 million stream reaches (>700 fold increase in spatial density)
Current NWS River Forecast Pointsoverlaid with NWM Stream Reaches
National Water Model V1.2Analysis and Forecast Cycling Configurations
Cycling Forecast Forcing Outputs
All configurations include reservoirs (1260 water bodies parameterized with level pool scheme)
Analysis assimilates >7,000 USGS Observations10
Analysis & Short-Range
Medium-Range
Long-Range
Hourly
4 x Day
Daily Ensemble
(16 members)
18 hours
10 days
30 days
MRMS QPEDownscaled HRRR/RAP
Blend
Downscaled GFS
Downscaled and Bias-Corrected
CFS
1km Land States,250m Sfc Routed
Water,NHDPlus
Streamflow
1km Land States,250m Sfc Routed
Water,NHDPlus
Streamflow
1km Land States,NHDPlus
Streamflow
Foundation Established August 2016
Water Resource Model for 2.7 Million Stream Reaches
First/Second Upgrade May 2017/March 2018
Increased cycling freq. and forecast length, improved calibration,
soil/snow physics and stream DA
Third UpgradeMay 2019
Expansion to Hawaii, medium range ensembles, enhanced snow
physics, compound channel parameterization, increased
modularity, improved calibration, longer Analysis w/MPE
Fourth UpgradeFall 2020
Expansion to Puerto Rico and Great Lakes, increased modularity, enhanced reservoir
module, physics improvements, forcing bias-correction, improved calibration, and
improved Hawaii QPE11
Future Plans: Upgrading to NWM V2.0 and Beyond
Hurricane Florence
Iowa Flooding Texas Flooding
NWM Medium-Range Forecast (06Z 9/18)Lynches River at Effingham, SC
NWM Medium-Range Forecast (00Z 9/22)Iowa River at Wapello, IA
NWM Medium-Range Forecast (12Z 10/12)Trinity River at Dallas, TX
NWM Medium-Range Forecast (00Z 10/21)Nueces River near Three Rivers, TX
NWM Medium-Range Forecast (00Z 9/21)East Fork Des Moines River, Near Algona IA
NWM Medium-Range Forecast (06Z 9/15)Cape Fear River at William O. Huske Lock near Tar Heel, NC
NWM V2.0 displayed good performance for Hurricane Florence flooding, and in Iowa and Texas flood events,new ensemble begins to capture forecast uncertainty
NWM V2.0 Medium-Range Real-time Ensemble Forecast Examples
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NOAA-USGS National Water Model CollaborationSupported by the USGS Water Prediction Work Program
• Observations: Gap analysis for next generation observing systemin support of water prediction (e.g., streamflow, stream temperature, soil moisture, etc.)
• Establishment of Community Modeling Development Environment
• Development and application of hydroinformatics for integration of geospatial data and of decision support tools
• Co-development of enhanced water prediction capabilities (on NHD+ channel network)
² Streamflow
² Temperature (Water Quality)
² Sediment/Constituent Entrainment -- sources, characteristics, and movement of materials (Water Quality)
² Constituent Transport -- including physical and chemical fate (Water Quality)
• Maps supported emergency management efforts to stage supplies in non-flooded areas and to target relief efforts
• Texas Division of Emergency Management needed information on exisiting and maximum possible flood extent
Experimental National Water Model GuidanceHurricane Harvey: Flood Inundation Mapping
Houston
Port Arthur
Beaumont
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Experimental National Water Model GuidanceHurricane Harvey: Forecast Time to Bankfull Flow
18 Hour Forecast Valid 18Z August 27, 2017
Houston
Buffalo Bayou
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Experimental National Water Model GuidanceHurricane Harvey: Forecast Time to Bankfull Flow
18 Hour Forecast Valid 18Z August 27, 2017
Houston
Buffalo Bayou
PEAK INUNDATION EXTENTR&R and NWM: 5-Day Forecast
Reference Time:August 26th, 2017 at 12:00 UTC
RFC Replace and Route FIMNational Water Model FIM
Experimental National Water Model GuidanceHurricane Harvey: Flood Inundation Mapping
Houston
PEAK INUNDATION EXTENTR&R and NWM: 5-Day Forecast
Reference Time:August 26th, 2017 at 12:00 UTC
RFC Replace and Route FIMNational Water Model FIM
Experimental National Water Model GuidanceHurricane Harvey: Flood Inundation Mapping
Houston
NWM Streamflow Forecast for Hurricane Harvey10 Day Forecast (left) and corresponding Analysis (right): 12Z Aug 22 – 12Z Sep 1
Overall extreme streamflow pattern forecast several days in advance by NWM
NWM Streamflow Forecast with Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Overlay
NWM Streamflow Analysis with Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Precipitation Overlay
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Water Resources Services - Existing and NewCurrent: Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
● Historical climate forcings● No accounting for hydrologic
uncertainty or bias ● Suitable for long-range
forecasting only● limited number of graphical
products
Near-term: Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service (HEFS)
● Utilizes short, medium, and long range weather forecasts
● Captures total uncertainty and corrects for biases in forcingsand streamflow
● Suitable for forecasting hours to years
● Wide array of data and user products
Future Services: NWM long-range ensemble prediction
● Potential to provide probabilistic forecasts at 2.7 million stream reaches
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
2water.weather.gov
• 1091 river locations display HEFS experimental short and/or long-range products
• Over next few years, goal is to expand the number of HEFS river service locations to 2350
• Near tern enhancements include beginning the use of GEFSv12 model forcings in 2020
Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS)
The forecast for 2pm on 12 March, HEFS shows ~5% chance the river level will reach/exceed 11 ft (well above Major Flooding level)
The forecast for 2pm on 12 March, HEFS shows ~25% chance of reaching or exceeding 7.3 ft (Moderate Flooding)
The forecast for 2pm on 12 March, HEFS shows ~75% chance of reaching or exceeding 6.5 ft (Minor Flooding)
Summary
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• NOAA’s Water Services are Evolving– Continental scale modeling approach producing consistent, “street-level,” summit-to-
sea information to address growing stakeholder needs – Deliver comprehensive, integrated actionable water predictions/intelligence– Enhanced, extended-range ensemble predictions which quantify forecast uncertainty
• Implementing State-of-the-Art Technical Approach– Water resources prediction through state-of-the-science earth system modeling in a
high performance computing environment– Impact-based decision support services underpinned by geo-intelligence
• New Organization, Cornerstone Facility and Philosophy– Office of Water Prediction/National Water Center– Collaboration across NOAA and with Federal Partners, Academia, and the broader
Water Resources Enterprise is critical to success
Backup Slides
National Water ModelInitial Operating Capability:Model Chain
5. Channel & ReservoirRoutingModules
4. NHDPlus CatchmentAggregation(2.7M uniquecatchments andriver reaches)
2. NoahMP LSM (1 km grid)
1. NWM Forcing Engine(1 km grid)
3. Terrain RoutingModule(250 m grid)
2-way coupling
ForecastProducts
NWM uses NCAR supported community WRF-Hydro systemNWM: http://water.noaa.gov/about/nwm
WRF-Hydro: https://www.ral.ucar.edu/projects/wrf_hydro
• Updates– Addition of Hawaii to NWM domain (including Analysis and 60-hr Short-Range forecast)– Addition of Extended Analysis configuration (daily 28-hour lookback)– Addition of separate Long-Range Analysis configuration to initialize Long-Range forecasts– Addition of Medium Range ensemble forecast configuration
• 7 members 4x day (mem1=current GFS to 10 days, mem2-7=time lagged GFS to 8.5 days)– Use of 13km GFS forcing (versus 0.25 degree)– Improved downscaling of GFS and CFS forcing via Mountain Mapper approach– Improved physics (out-of-bank flow via compound channel, improved snow physics)– Improved waterbody parameters from 30m DEM, inclusion of 3,995 additional reservoirs– Improved calibration of hydrologic parameters, expanded from 1,100 to 1,400 basins– Corrections to stream connectivity– Improved code modularity– Bugzilla fixes and file metadata updates
NWM Version 2.0 Enhancements
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New Hawaii Domain
National Water Center Annual Innovators ProgramPartnership with the academic community via Interagency Agreement with the NSF and CUAHSI to host a competitive Summer Institute
•Year one included 44 graduate students from 19 Universities, June - July 2015 – Demonstrated ability to simultaneously model the entire continental United States river network
at high spatial resolution, in near real-time for 2.7 million stream reaches
•Year two included 34 graduate students from 21 Universities, June - July 2016 – Demonstrated the ability to generate flood inundation maps utilizing NWM output – Engaged social scientists and stakeholders from the Fire, Police and Emergency Management
Communities to explore ways to best communicate water information
•Year three includes 34 graduate students from 25 Universities, June - July 2017 – Refine the recently developed process to create flood inundation maps nationally in real time – Develop a strategy for a hyper-resolution nest of the NWM – Improve the communication of water resources information
Summer Institute 201823 graduate students from 18 Universities
• Explore shallow aquifer/groundwater coupling in the National Water Model ü Improving upon NWM forecasts by investigating and quantifying groundwater-surface water
exchanges.
• Conduct hyper-resolution modelingü Improving the accuracy and analyzing the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions from hyper-
resolution models in complex urban watersheds.
• Investigate computational aspects of NWM & citizen science dataü Evaluating the significance of channel geometry and routing schemes in the context of the NWM, and
methods for integrating crowd-sourced data for improved stage and flow predictions.
FY18-19 DOC/NOAA Agency Priority Goal
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Goal Statement: By September 30, 2019, NOAA National Weather Service will improve its flood related decision support services by (1) demonstrating a new flood inundation mapping capability serving 25 million people (approximately 8%* of the U.S. continental population) residing in flood-vulnerable freshwater basins, and (2) delivering an enhanced excessive rainfall outlook product, with lead time of “High Risk” predictions extended from two days to three days. Emergency Managers will use this information to more effectively mitigate flood impacts by prepositioning resources, ensuring critical infrastructure (e.g., hospitals, evacuation routes, etc.) are viable, and ordering evacuations.
*Future out-year goal is to incrementally expand flood inundation mapping to near 100% of the continental U.S. population residing in flood-vulnerable freshwater basins.
Mitigate Flood Impacts by Demonstrating Improved Decision Support Services to Emergency Managers
Community Advisory Committee for theOffice of Water Prediction (CAC-WP)
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Purpose:• Conduct a thorough independent review of OWP’s water modeling capabilities with
emphasis on the National Water Model (NWM), other modeling innovations, and related data and information services.
• Bring independent expertise and perspectives from across the community to provide recommendations to improve OWP’s water modeling capabilities and related data and information services.
• Consider the various activities OWP has already undertaken to address documented requirements and associated science and service gaps.
Composition and Scope:• Two-Co Chairs and 12+ member committee comprised primarily of hydrologists, civil
engineers, and other water resources science and data science experts.
• Administratively managed by UCAR
• Any review and recommendations will be those of committee members and not of UCAR
• Meet every 12-18 months and produce a written report of its findings and recommendations.
Community Advisory Committee for theOffice of Water Prediction (CAC-WP)
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The CAC-WP scope is broad and initial review provided advice regarding: 1. The National Water Model, including:
a. The current and future elements of the NWM as described multi-year strategic science and services framework, as well as future adjustments to that framework;
b. In-situ and remotely-sensed observations for assimilation and validation;c. Physiographic data sets such as terrain data, stream network, land use land cover, soils data,
reservoir characteristics, and other relevant data sets;d. Hydrometeorological forcings; e. Improved representation of physical processes; f. Accounting for anthropogenic processes; g. The establishment of a community developmental testbed and associated governance; h. Performance metrics to assess overall model performance and objectively evaluate potential
model upgrades; i. Involvement of NWS RFCs, WFOs, and NCEP Centers in using, validating and improving the NWM; j. Requirements for HPC resources and associated implementation strategies to optimally use available
computing resources; k. Integration into a broader unified Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC)
2. The evolution of the OWP water resources data services;
3. Integrating the broad spectrum and large volume of water resources and related geospatial information for new product development, and enhanced impact-based decision-support services.
Community Advisory Committee for theOffice of Water Prediction (CAC-WP) Membership
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Sector Name Organization
Government
Cline, Don (Co-Chair) USGS
Farthing, Matthew USACE - ERDC
Lesmes, David DOE
Longenecker, Gene FEMA
Moglen, Glenn USDA - ARS
Nelson, Jonathon USGS
Torgersen, Tom (Ex Officio) NSF
Young, Dwane EPA
Academia
Bales, Jerad (Ex Officio) CUAHSI
Barros, Ana Duke University
Dawson, Clint UT Austin
Fan Reinfelder, Ying Rutgers University
Foufoulou Giorgio, Efi UC Irvine
Hooper, Richard Tufts University
Maidment, David (Co-Chair) UT Austin
Community Advisory Committee for theOffice of Water Prediction (CAC-WP) MembershipContinued
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Sector Name Organization
Academia Continued
Mandli, Kyle Columbia University
Rasmussen, Roy (Ex Officio) NCAR
Tarboton, David Utah State University
NGO Mesheli, Ehab Water Institute of the Gulf
Private Sector
Ables, Matthew Kisters North America
Kopp, Steve ESRI
Nimmich, Joe Booze Allen Hamilton
Tolle, Kristen Microsoft Research
V1.0 V1.1 V1.2 V2.0
NWM v2.0 Streamflow Hourly Correlation at USGS Gauges (WY 2014-2016, NLDAS MM Forcing)
18% have cor >= 0.8 21% have cor >= 0.8 27% have cor >= 0.8 33% have cor >= 0.8
NWM v2.0 Improvement: Correlation at All USGS Gauges
● Version-over-version improvement● Pronounced at directly calibrated sites● Calibrated/validated against hourly
(previously daily) streamflow obs● Daily metrics also improve● No assimilation of USGS observations
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Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) in Russian River Watershed
• Multi-Agency study on Lake Mendocino• Can we enhance reservoir operations and
use of available storage by using forecasts to inform decisions about releasing or storing water?
• HEFS forecasts are central to optimized forecast-based reservoir operations
• Supports water control manual change request for Lake Mendocino
• Process can be replicated in other watersheds
Early Applications of HEFS