no way out? breaking lock-in in the energy system
DESCRIPTION
Presentation at the International System Dynamics Conference, Washington, DCTRANSCRIPT
No way out? – Analysing policy options to
alleviate lock-in in the energy system
Jérôme Dangerman
IIASA / Radboud University Nijmegen
&
Andreas Größler
Radboud University Nijmegen
E-Mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
Lock-in in the Energy System
IEA, 2010
Lock-in in the Energy System
Traditional fuels (brown), coal (grey), and modern energy forms (oil/gas and renewables/nuclear, red) in
percent of world primary energy (Grübler, 2008).
Lock-in in the Energy System
Lock-in in the Energy System
Success-to-the-sucessful archetype (after Senge, 1990)
Lock-in in the Energy System
A stylized system dynamics model
AvailableCapital
Capital ConventionalEnergy-Technology
Capital AlternativeEnergy-Technology investing in
alternative energyinvesting in
conventional energy
depreciationconventional
depreciationalternative
+ +
DEMAND
:=1000
desired capitalenergy-technology
discrepancy betweendesired and actual capital
energy-technology
+
+
- -
++
inclination to investconventional
+-
- +
:=300 :=500
Lock-in in the Energy System
Base run
1,000
750
500
250
0
22
22
22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1
1
11
11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time (Year)
Eu
ro
"Capital Conventional Energy-Technology" : Success-to-the-Successful 1 1 1 1 1 1 1"Capital Alternative Energy-Technology" : Success-to-the-Successful 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Lock-in in the Energy System
Variation of demand, over-proportional reward on
existing capital
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
00 25 50 75 100
400
300
200
100
00 25 50 75 100
Capital Alternative Energy-TechnologyCapital Conventional Energy-Technology
Time (Year)
Base run
Time (Year)
Demand was varied between 500 and 1500 [1000], 200 simulation runs
50% 75% 95% 100% of all simulation runs
Lock-in in the Energy System
Variation of resources, demand exceeds capacity,
over-proportional reward on existing capital
Capital Alternative Energy-Technology400
300
200
100
00 25 50 75 100
Time (Year)
Base run
Capital Conventional Energy-Technology1,000
750
500
250
00 25 50 75 100
Time (Year)
inflow capital was varied between 0 and 100 [100], 200 simulation runs
50% 75% 95% 100% of all simulation runs
Lock-in in the Energy System
Variation of depreciation time, demand exceeds
capacity, over-proportional reward on existing capital
1,000
750
500
250
00 25 50 75 100
400
300
200
100
00 25 50 75 100
Capital Alternative Energy-TechnologyCapital Conventional Energy-Technology
Time (Year)
Base run
Time (Year)
depreciation time conventional was varied between 10 and 50 [30], 200 simulation runs
50% 75% 95% 100% of all simulation runs
Lock-in in the Energy System
Variation of building time, demand exceeds capacity,
over-proportional reward on existing capital
1,000
750
500
250
00 25 50 75 100
1,000
750
500
250
00 25 50 75 100
Capital Alternative Energy-TechnologyCapital Conventional Energy-Technology
Time (Year)
Base run
50% 75% 95% 100% of all simulation runs
Time (Year)
building time alternative was varied between 1 and 10 [5], 200 simulation runs