no slide title · 6 isda credit default “swap” mechanics • allows long/short positions in the...
TRANSCRIPT
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ISDA Credit Derivatives Risk Management Seminar –July 21, 2005
Credit Derivatives –Documentation, Operations and Industry SolutionsRichard MetcalfeSenior Director, Policy
ISDAwww.isda.org
Copyright © 2005 International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc.
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2 ISDAISDA
Credit derivatives
1) OverviewMarket evolution
2) MiscellaneousCharacterisation: Financial contracts vs Insurance Chinese walls - JMPF I and IICapital
3) Documentation
4) Operations issuesBackground; Strategic Plan; FpML
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3 ISDAISDA
Overview
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4 ISDAISDA
New market – liquidity growing
Credit Derivatives Market Growth
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
2001 Year-End
2002 Mid-Year
2002 Year-End
2003 Mid-Year
2003 Year-End
2004 Mid-Year
2004 Year-End
$tr
Outstandings - CDS ($tr)
Source: ISDA (www.isda.org – Surveys)
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5 ISDAISDA
Market evolution
• Circa 1994:– Asset swaps– Total Return Swaps, Spread Options, Nth-to-default baskets
• Circa 2004: – Credit Default Swaps – CDS (corporate, sovereign, index…)– Synthetic securitisations; single-tranche synthetics– Swaptions (option on CDS)
• Ca 2006?– ‘(Fixed) Recovery’ swaps, constant-maturity swaps
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6 ISDAISDA
Credit default “swap” mechanics
• Allows long/short positions in the credit risk of the Reference Entity• Economically, more like an option than a swap
Premium (‘Fixed Rate Payment’)
Protection Buyer
Protection SellerContingent (‘Floating Rate’) Payment
-Payment is contingent on a triggering Credit Event and satisfaction of the ‘Conditions to Settlement’
-Physical (or Cash) Settlement.
- No Credit Event occurs: payout = 0 (option expires without intrinsic value).
Reference Entity
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7 ISDAISDA
Miscellaneous Issues
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8 ISDAISDA
Characterisation
• Credit Derivatives are not insurance– payout linked to market values – not to proven loss– no ‘insurable interest’
– ‘Potts’ opinion – 1997– International Accounting Standards– analogy with weather derivatives (debate in US)
• At stake: tax, accounting, as well as enforceability (‘vires’)– ISDA seeking statement from US tax authorities (IRS)
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9 ISDAISDA
Chinese walls
• Loan originators obtain private information• Credit is now traded in public markets• Commentators fear insider trading
• JMPF– US: IACPM, ISDA, LSTA, TBMA – October 2003
• Structures/procedures to segregate public and private sides• Relevant legislation – Exchange Act, Rule 10b-5
– EU follow-on: IACPM, ISDA, LIBA, LMA, TBMA – May 2005• Relevant legislation – Market Abuse Directive
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10 ISDAISDA
Capital – Operational Issues
• Legally binding and enforceable contract• Procedures and processes for residual risks
• Also: – Some regulators (eg, France) do not recognise
protection if derivative subject to netting. • ISDA considers this in-appropriate• Important to consider all scenarios – not just default
of protection buyer
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11 ISDAISDA
Documentation
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12 ISDAISDA
ISDA CDS Documentation – history
• ‘Prehistory’: adaptation interest-rate-swaps documentation• 1998 ‘Long Form Confirmation’ (non-sovereign)• 1999 ISDA Credit Derivatives Definitions
– 2001 Supplements: Restructuring; Successors; Convertibles.
• 2003 Definitions – including confirmation and novation templates
• Plus– Swaption (ie, option on CDS) confirmation– First-to-Default basket confirmation– Reference Entities: Monoline Insurer; US Municipal; Asset-Backed Securities– Settlement ‘Matrix’ [Master Confirmations (corporate and sovereign)]– … and more in pipeline (eg, Constant maturity CDS)
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13 ISDAISDA
Basic structure
• Protection scope – Obligations
• Credit Events*– eg, Bankruptcy, Restructuring
• Settlement*– Physical (Deliverable Obligations);
• or Cash (Reference Obligation)
* NB Notices
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14 ISDAISDA
‘Obligations’ (scope of protection)…
Guaranteed
(‘Downstream’ or ‘All’)
Direct
[Reference Obligation]
Typical terms for single-name, OECD-corporate trades:Obligation Category Obligation Characteristics“Borrowed Money” [None]
… & ‘Deliverable Obligations’Obligation Category Obligation Characteristics (extended list)eg, “Borrowed Money” [None]
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15 ISDAISDA
Credit events
• Bankruptcy (no longer ‘action in furtherance of’)
• Failure to Pay (Payment Requirement, = $1m?)
• Restructuring (restrictions on Obligation/Deliverable?)
• Obligation Acceleration• Obligation Default• Repudiation/Moratorium (authorised officer? ‘hard’ event follows?)
Typical corporate-trade events*
*Favoured by Basel
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16 ISDAISDA
Documentation – ops issues
• Notice of Physical Settlement– Delivery by e-mail (Parmalat volume/timing)
• CDX ‘protocol’ – May-June 2005 – Collins-Aikman bankruptcy (→cash settlement)
• Novations:– No transfer without consent of remaining Party
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17 ISDAISDA
Operations
a) Backgroundb) ISDA Strategic Planc) Solutions (FpML)
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18 ISDAISDA
Confirmations outstanding
Average number of confirmations sent but not finalised(Business-days’ worth of average confirmation volumes)
2002 2003 2004 2005
FRAs 7.0 7.1 6.0 4.6
Vanilla swaps 9.1 8.9 8.9 10.1
Non-vanilla swaps 12.4 12.1 11.3 11.6
Interest rate options 10.7 9.3 8.1
Currency options 8.2 7.6 6.2
Credit derivatives 20.8 21.1 17.8 13.3Equity derivatives 14.3 12.6 12.5 9.3
Commodity derivatives 9.5 12.1 10.0
Source: ISDA, Operations Benchmarking Surveys 2004, 2005
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19 ISDAISDA
Automation of trade-detail matching
(Percentage of deal tickets – not weighted by trade volumes)
1245Commodity derivatives
12310Equity derivatives
1651Credit derivatives
332023Currency options
1103Interest rate options
913Non-vanilla swaps
17711Vanilla swaps
312020FRAs
200520042003
1245Commodity derivatives
12310Equity derivatives
1651Credit derivatives
332023Currency options
1103Interest rate options
913Non-vanilla swaps
17711Vanilla swaps
312020FRAs
200520042003
Advisory: Actually 1/3?
Source: ISDA, Operations Benchmarking Survey 2005
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20 ISDAISDA
Prioritisation factors
Weightings that firms assign to factors in determining which outstanding confirmations to prioritse
(Ranked by most heavily weighted)Precentmonitoring
Average weight
(8 high, 1 low)
Days outstanding 93 7.1
Net present value 61 5.3
Master Agreement Signed 67 4.5
Other 27 4.5
Type of transaction 62 4.3
Counterparty credit rating 46 4.2
Counterparty type 64 4.2
Collateral held / callable 49 4.1
Source: ISDA, Operations Benchmarking Survey 2005
http://www.isda.org/c_and_a/pdf/ISDA-OBS-FpML-2005.pdf
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21 ISDAISDA
b) Strategic Plan
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22 ISDAISDA
A plan is born
• 2003 Annual Operations Summit… Strategy Group– Operational Heads, 15 major dealers
• Strategy paper published – “Going Forward: A Strategic Plan” (December 2003)
• Implementation Plan (March 2004)– “Moving Forward: An Implementation Plan”
• ABN Amro• Bank of America• BNP Paribas• Barclays Capital • Citigroup• Commerzbank• CSFB
• Deutsche Bank• Dresdner Bank• Goldman Sachs• Greenwich Capital • Lehman Brothers• Merrill Lynch• Mizuho Capital Markets
• JP Morgan Chase• Morgan Stanley• Royal Bank of Scotland• Société Générale• UBS
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23 ISDAISDA
Stretch targets
OTCProduct TimelineProcess
Interest Rate Credit
Equity FX
Commodity
December 2004Verification (T+0)Confirmation Despatch (T+1/5)Legal Execution (T+5/10)
June 2005
Cashflow Matching (‘S’-2) December 2005
Intra-Product NettingPortfolio Reconciliation (Daily) December 2006
All OTC
Source: ISDA Operations Strategic Plan, December 2003
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24 ISDAISDA
ISDA Operations Summit
• Immediate issues:– Novations (solutions from Creditex, DTCC….)– Quarterly settlement– Long-term outstandings
• Strategic issues– Novations! – oral consent? / ISDA protocol– Confirmations: auto-matching/affirmation– (Portfolio reconciliation)
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25 ISDAISDA
(Protocols)
• Multilateral agreement mechanism• ISDA:
– logs adherence letters– posts names of adhering parties on web-site
• Previous applications:– EMU (substitution of euro for francs, marks etc)– CDX / Collins-Aikman cash-settlement
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26 ISDAISDA
c) Solutions (FpML)
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27 ISDAISDA
Various vendors – common language
• Commercial initiatives (DTCC, Swapswire…; TriOptima)• ‘affirmation’, confirmation…; tear-ups
• FpML – Financial products Mark-up Language• Enables e-commerce for OTC derivatives• XML-based ‘lingua franca’ for OTC derivatives• Standardises ‘labels’ attached to data items
• format supports product complexity and variety• ISDA-supported since 2002
• Informal consortium (1999) → FpML.org (2000)
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28 ISDAISDA
The FpML vision
Front-OfficeFront-Office
<FpML> to Company B Systems
<FpML> to Company A Systems
Electronic Trading Network
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29 ISDAISDA
FpML: product coverage
• Scope:– Rates, FX, Equity, Credit Derivatives – swaps & options
• + Loans/deposits– ‘Risk’ inputs (yield curve); Collateral– Related tools (eg, Validation, Editor-viewer, User Guide)
• Work in progress: – Messaging– Structured Products
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30 ISDAISDA
Docs & Ops….
Settlement ‘matrix’ – standard terms
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31 ISDAISDA
Physical settlement matrix (extract)
Transaction Type NORTH AMERICANCORPORATE1
EUROPEANCORPORATE
AUSTRALIACORPORATE
Business Days: If the Floating Rate Payer Calculation Amount is denominated in USD: London & New YorkEUR: London, New York & TARGETGBP: LondonJPY: London & TokyoCHF: London & Zurich
If the Floating Rate Payer Calculation Amount is denominated in USD: London & New YorkEUR: London & TARGETGBP: LondonJPY: London & TokyoCHF: London & Zurich
If the Floating Rate Payer Calculation Amount is denominated in USD: London, New York & SydneyAUD: London, New York & SydneyEUR: London, New York, TARGET & Sydney
All Guarantees: Not Applicable Applicable Applicable
Conditions to Settlement: Notice of Publicly Available Information Applicable
Notice of Publicly Available Information Applicable
Notice of Publicly Available Information Applicable
Credit Events: BankruptcyFailure to PayRestructuring, if specified as applicable in the relevant Confirmation Restructuring Maturity
Limitation and Fully Transferable Obligation Applicable
BankruptcyFailure to PayRestructuring
Modified Restructuring Maturity Limitation and Conditionally Transferable Obligation Applicable
BankruptcyFailure to PayRestructuring
RestructuringMaturity Limitation and Fully Transferable Obligation Applicable
Version of March 7, 2005 (corporate).http://www.isda.org/c_and_a/docs/Credit-Derivatives-Physical-Settlement-Matrix-20050307.xls
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32 ISDAISDA
Credit Derivatives
Richard Metcalfe – [email protected]
www.isda.orgConferences, Documentation, Comment LettersConferences, Documentation, Comment Letters
Copyright ® 2005 International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc.