Northern Ireland Economic and Labour Market Statistics

NICVA Round Table 27th March 2014

Dr. James Gillan

Northern Ireland Economic Data

NICVA Round Table 27th March 2014

Dr. James Gillan

Lyric Theatre

NISRA Economic and Labour Market Statistics

Overview

• Official Statistics Context• Division of responsibilities for provision

of NI economic data;• Recent and planned developments • User views

The Code of Practice for Official Statistics

• Statutory basis:-– Statistics and Registration Services Act (2007)

• Principle 1 – Meeting User Needs– The production, management and dissemination

of official statistics should meet the requirements of informed decision making by government, public services, business, researchers and the public.

– Systematic engagement, documenting needs, transparent priority setting

UK Concordat on Statistics

• The administrations will work together to ensure the provision of coherent, reliable, consistent and timely UK-wide statistics.

• The Head of the GSS will retain responsibility for the fulfilment of UK statistical obligations to the EU and international bodies and for EU/international liaisons and co-operation on statistical matters.

• Statistics (and related commentary) to be published ..... by a different administration will be checked as necessary with the relevant devolved administration(s) for statistical validity before the final version is agreed.

ONS , HMRC, Treasury Statistics • The Office for National Statistics publishes:-

– Gross Value Added (Income) basic prices • (At Northern Ireland level to 2012), • (At Northern Ireland by Industry to 2011)

– Gross Value Added (Production) real prices (experimental)• (At Northern Ireland level to 2012), • (At Northern Ireland by Industry to 2011)

– Gross Disposable Household Income ( to 2011)• HMRC Regional Trade Statistics • Public Expenditure Statistical Analysis for UK and

devolved administrations published by HM Treasury

Labour Force

Employee Jobs

Claimants

Redundancy

Earnings

Labour Market Economic

QA of ONS’s Regional GVA for NI

Employee jobs: QES

Employee jobs: BRES / Census

Index of Production

Index of Services Annual Business Inquiry

Business Register

Business Activity

Research &Development

ManufacturingExports

Structure of NISRA Economic and LM Statistics

ServiceExports

Innovation

Index of Construction

Composite Economic Index

Tourism

Geography of NI economic data • More detail on available economic statistics at different

geographies within Northern Ireland can be found on the Regional Analysis page of our website:

http://www.detini.gov.uk/deti-stats-index/stats-regional-analysis.htm

• The UK Statistics Authority has recently published its latest Monitoring Review: "The Geography of Economic Statistics - Interim Report" looking at the availability of economic statistics at different geographical areas across the UK.

• The report can be found at :

http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/monitoring/monitoring-reviews/index.html

NICVA Report Recommendations

1. Data strategy to evaluate impact of policy2. Adopt Scottish approach to economic data 3. Provide GFCF, GNP and GDP for NI4. Provide income-output / import-export

relationships for NI5. Improve public expenditure and revenue info. 6. Increase Annual Business Inquiry sample size

http://www.nisra.gov.uk/

1.7 29.740.6

Agr.

Ind.

Serv

.

Cons.

Inv.

Gov.

Exp

.

Agriculture 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.9Industry 0.6 8.7 7.1 8.9 4.6 0.0 9.4 39.3Services 0.1 1.8 8.9 7.9 1.3 9.5 1.8 31.3Imports 0.3 12.4 8.9 17.1DepreciationWages 0.1 3.2 10.0Profits 0.5 2.8 5.6Total inputs

Tota

l outp

ut.

Final DemandOutput, Sales to:

Inputs, purchasesfrom:

NI input-output model – 2003 (123 sectors - validated for Tourism)

Issues identified from Input - Output work in 2007-08

• Fit for purpose for those sectors related to tourism but not validated beyond this;

• Difficulty balancing the tables particularly on the service sector side;

• Legal gateways needed for administrative sources• Local survey sources need strengthened

– ABI and exports– Imports

Priorities Informed by:- • Allsopp recommendations • Official Statistics obligations:-

– UK Statistics Authority Assessments of all official statistics

• Upgrading Business Survey IT infrastructure (IBSS) 2011-

• User Group meetings (e.g. 2013)– Composite Index Expert User Group (Jan)– Tourism Statistics:

• Committee for Enterprise Trade and Investment (March 2013)

• Cross Border Tourism Liaison Group (June 2013)• Expert User Group (June 2013)• District Council Group (Sept 2013)• Tourism Statistics User Group (December 2013)

Recent User Group meetings

• Employment & Learning Committee (Labour Market; Sept. 2013, March 2014)

• Statistics Advisory Committee (Sept 2013, March 2014)

• Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) User Group (December 2013)

• Economic Accounts Expert User Group (Nov. 2013, March 2014)

Improving NISRA Economic Data Sources

• Annual Business Register and Employment Survey• ABI Sample size increased from 5k to 11k ;• Exports integrated into ABI and coverage extended;• Imports questions added to ABI• Short term indicators strengthened

– Increased sample size, improved methodology– Quarterly exports for IOP collected since June 2010

• NI Composite Economic Indicator introduced• Improved tourism estimates (including domestic)

“UK Composite Index” v UK GDP to Q3 2013

4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

2002

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

UK GDP UK Composite

Tourism statistics

• New methodology to measure visitor volume and spend – Overseas visitors (2010) departing via NI ports and airports– Domestic Tourism

• Continuing cross border liaison– Overseas visitors departing via RoI– RoI overnight visitors to NI

• May 2013 – public consultation on tourism statistics• Monthly occupancy, quarterly combined estimate • Local Government tourism estimates (Dec 2013)

Annual Business Survey NI-GB sample comparison

Region Sample Universe % selected

North East 1,670 53,512 3.1North West 474 16,531 2.9Yorkshire & Humber 4,448 139,521 3.2East Midlands 4,177 133,645 3.1West Midlands 5,178 159,366 3.2East of England 2,305 76,351 3.0East of England 3,524 128,954 2.7London 10,843 379,407 2.9South East 9,073 326,977 2.8South West 5,140 177,393 2.9Wales 2,093 73,934 2.8Scotland 8,139 137,290 5.9GB Total 62,694 1,981,357 3.2NI Total 10,390 51,001 20.4

Annual Business SurveyNI - Scotland Coefficients of Variation 2012

SIC 2007 Description NI aGVA Scotland aGVA

A (part) Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.09 *

B Mining and quarrying 0.04 0.05

C Manufacturing 0.01 0.06

D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 0.05 *

EWater supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities 0.08 *

F Construction 0.07 0.08

45Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 0.07 0.04

46 Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 0.03 0.03

47 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 0.03 0.02

H Transport and Storage 0.07 0.03

I Accommodation and food service activities 0.04 0.06

J Information and communication 0.04 0.04

L Real estate activities 0.04 0.14

M Professional, scientific and technical activities 0.05 0.09

N Administrative and support service activities 0.04 0.08

P Education * 0.16

Q Human health and social work activities 0.03 0.18

R Arts, entertainment and recreation 0.09 0.41

S Other service activities * 0.56

* small sample size

2011 Annual Business SurveyRegional Estimates - DCA

District Council

aGVA (£m) CV

ANTRIM 788 9.0

ARDS 363 9.1

ARMAGH 477 8.6

BALLYMENA 1,356 3.8

BALLYMONEY 159 16.6

BANBRIDGE 220 21.3

BELFAST 4,549 3.8

CARRICKFERGUS 174 8.8

CASTLEREAGH 511 8.7

COLERAINE 456 7.8

COOKSTOWN 392 17.4

CRAIGAVON 918 5.0

DERRY 980 4.8

District Council

aGVA (£m) CV

DOWN 363 10.7

DUNGANNON 650 6.8

FERMANAGH 437 6.5

LARNE 365 8.9

LIMAVADY 162 13.6

LISBURN 1,050 9.1

MAGHERAFELT 408 12.2

MOYLE 51 20.8

NEWRY & MOURN 876 5.9

NEWTOWNABBEY 853 4.9

NORTH DOWN 462 10.1

OMAGH 291 9.7

STRABANE 166 10.3

2011 Annual Business SurveyRegional Estimates – NUTS3

NUTS3 aGVA (£m) CV

BELFAST 4,549 3.8

EAST OF NORTHERN IRELAND 4,373 2.8

NORTH OF NORTHERN IRELAND 1,975 3.6

OUTER BELFAST 3,050 4.0

WEST AND SOUTH OF NORTHERN IRELAND 3,530 3.4

AFBI NI Input-Output Tables Development

• Serve to policy analysis in agri-food sector and climate change in NI– 23 sector 2002 table: covers 10 agricultural sectors, 10

food processing sectors and other 3. – 32 sector 2005 table: 2002 table sectors + 9 energy sectors– Developed a satellite Greenhouse Gas (GHG) account

compatible with the table– Data collection for the expansion of the agri-food and

energy sector could be based on NISRA NIIO2010 and GHG accounts

• © Ziping Wu • 21

NI Supply-Use TablesObjectives 2012-14

•First step towards development of a comprehensive set of Supply-Use Tables

• Identify data sources

• Develop pilot Supply-Use Tables

• Identify weaknesses and gaps

• Work with AFBI to achieve common view

• Recommendation for next steps

ONS /NISRA Project:- Main data sources

• Regional accounts – GVA components

• Northern Ireland Annual Business Inquiry

• COINS/OSCAR for central government

• Annual accounts for local government and further education

• Living Costs and Food Survey - households

• HMRC trade data

• UK SUT

ONS / NISRA Supply Use – General approach

• Compile at the same level of detail as the UK SUT – i.e. 110 industry x 110 products

• Aggregate to SIC section for dissemination

• Constrain GVA components to Regional Accounts totals

• Apportion in line with UK SUT where specific splits for NI not available

• Exports and imports split into GB, RoI, Rest of EU and Rest of World

The Supply TableINDUSTRY

P DOMESTIC SUPPLYR at basic pricesO Total D supply ofU productsCT

TOTAL OUTPUT

Imports of goods & services

Distributors' trading margins

Taxes (less subsidies) on

products

The Demand TableINDUSTRY

INTERMEDIATE DEMANDPR at purchasers' pricesO ExportsDUCT

Total intermediate consumptionTaxes (less subsidies) on production

Compensation of employeesGross operating surplusTOTAL OUTPUT (INPUTS)

GVA at basic prices (primary inputs)

Total demand

for products

Gross capital

formation

Total intermediate

demand

Final consumption expenditure

Draft Conclusions and issues• Several key sources identified and integrated

• Possible to produce prototype SUT

• Some important areas of weakness:

o Product split for intermediate consumption

o “Imports” from Great Britain

o International trade in services, particularly imports

o Output of the financial and real estate industries

o Inputs and outputs of the charitable sector

• Living Costs & Food Survey (three year averages)

Next Steps

• Issue a SUT methodology report and consult more widely;• New ABI exports methodology paper – May tbc 2014

• New ABI import data methodology paper - Summer 2014

• Update Tables and consult with expert group

• New questions have been added to ABI (ref. year 2013)

• Trade in goods and services with GB

• Capital expenditure breakdown

• Further work needed on financial sector / NGOs

Next Steps contd.

• UK Purchases Inquiry - 2015

• Likely to have a significant compliance burden

• NI version ?

• Living Costs and Food Survey ?

• NI web development to improve access

Upcoming user group meetings

– ABI & Exports - (April/May 2014)– Labour Market – (May 2014)– Tourism Statistics Liaison Group (May 2014)– Economic Accounts Expert Group (June

2014)

NI ‘Wellbeing’ Measures

DISCUSSION