ninth conference on mesoscale processes - gbv · 2007. 3. 16. · zavisa i. janjic, noaa/nws/ncep,...

NINTH CONFERENCE ONMESOSCALE PROCESSES

30 JULY-2 AUGUST 2001 FORT LAUDERDALE, FLORIDA

SPONSORED BY

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Front Cover: This diagram is a time vs longitude plot of average radar echo frequency (%) over the continental U.S. for the month of July1997. It reveals the existence of warm season precipitation "episodes". Episodes are defined as time/space clusters of heavy precipitationthat often result from sequences of organized convection such as squall lines, mesoscaie convective systems and mesoscaie convectivecomplexes. Episodes exhibit rainfall patterns that are characteristic of both diurnal forcing and coherent propagation. The existence of"phase-locked" behavior is revealed by the (mostly) green diagonal stripes of enhanced echo frequency. Episodes are observed daily; appearto have their dynamical origin at the mesoscaie; and frequently originate near the continental divide. Once the coherent regeneration ofsuccessive mesoscaie systems is understood, the representation of such mechanisms in forecast models will offer the opportunity forimproved predictions of warm season rainfall at all ranges.

The front cover was sponsored by the NCAR/MMM, Boulder, Colorado and the image was provided by R. E. Carbone and J.D. Turtle. Formore information please see paper 9.9, page 276 entitled "Inferences of Predictability Associated with Warm Season PrecipitationEpisodes".

All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means—graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying,taping, or information storage and retrieval systemsCwithout the prior written permission of the publisher. Contact AMS for permission pertaining to the overall collection.Authors retain their individual rights and should be contacted directly for permission to use their material separately. The manuscripts reproduced herein are unrefereedpapers presented at the Ninth Conference on Mesoscaie Processes. Their appearance in this collection does not constitute formal publication.

UB/TIB Hannover 89124 758 797

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY45 BEACON STREET, BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS USA 02108-3693

TABLE OF CONTENTS

NINTH CONFERENCE ON MESOSCALE PROCESSESPAGE

SESSION V. IMPROVING UNDERSTANDING OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES AND THEIR PARAMETERIZATIONS

1 1.1 ON THE IMPORTANCE OF SATURATION EFFECTS IN THE TURBULENCE SCHEME OF A MESOSCALE MODEL.David R. Stauffer, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and R. C. Mufioz and N. L. Seaman

6 1.2 RECENT IMPROVEMENTS FOR SURFACE AND MICROPHYSICAL SCHEMES IN THE MESONH MESOSCALEMODEL. Patrick Jabouille, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and J.-P. Pinty, V. Masson, and F. Solmon

11 1.3 PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM IMPROVE: A FIELD STUDY TO VERIFY AND IMPROVE BULK MICROPHYSICALPARAMETERIZATIONS IN MESOSCALE MODELS. MaTk T. Stoelinga, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P.V. Hobbs, J. D. Locatelli, and C. F. Mass

1.4 WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECAST MODEL PHYSICS: STATUS, CRUCIAL ISSUES AND PLANS. John M.Brown, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and T. J. Black, S.-H. Chen, J. Dudhia, S.-Y. Hong, J. S. Kain, X.-Z. Liang,M. Sinclair, W.-K. Tao, and M. Xue

12 1.5 PARAMETERIZED CONVECTION WITH ENSEMBLE CLOSURE/FEEDBACK ASSUMPTIONS. Georg A. Grell,NOAA/OAR/FSL and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. Devenyi

1.6 IMPROVING BULK MICROPHYSICS PARAMETERIZATION USING SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. Giulia

Panegrossi, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wl; and G. Tripoli

POSTER SESSION P1: IMPROVING PHYSICAL PARAMETERIZATIONS IN MESOSCALE MODELS

17 P1.1 MESOSCALE CLOUD SCHEME ASSESSMENT USING SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. Jean-Pierre Chaboureau,Laboratoire d'Aerologie, Toulouse, France; and J.-P. Pinty, J.-P. Cammas, P. J. Mascart, and J.-P. Lafore

21 P1.2 EVALUATION OF A TURBULENT MIXING LENGTH PARAMETERIZATION APPLIED TO THE CASE OF ANAPPROACHING UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. Douglas K. Miller, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Waltersand A. Slavin

P1.3 PERFORMANCE OF THE UPDATED EXPLICIT MICROPHYSICS IN THE 20KM RUC. John M. Brown,NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. Grell, T. G. Smirnova, S. G. Benjamin, R. M. Rasmussen, and G.Thompson

P1.4 ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPREHENSIVE LAND SURFACE MODEL. Vince C. Wong, Univ. of Oklahoma,Norman, OK; and F.-Y. Kong

26 P1.5 MODELING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN BOUNDARY LAYER AND SHALLOW CLOUDS USING A TKE AND ASHALLOW CONVECTION PARAMETERIZATION. Ricardo C. Munoz, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; andN. L. Seaman, D. R. Stauffer, and A. Deng

P1.6 PAPER WITHDRAWN

31 P1.7 RESPONSE OF CONVECTION TO DRY LAYERS: SIMULATION AND PARAMETERIZATION TESTS. James A.Ridout, NRL, Monterey, CA

36 P1.8 THE EFFECT OF BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATIONS ON MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATIONS. Frank P.Colby, Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA

40 P1.9 STORM INITIALIZATION OF HURRICANE BONNIE USING SSM/I BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES:PRELIMINARY RESULTS. C. Amerault, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and K. Park, X. Zou, G.-S. Liu, andJ. Hawkins

45 P1.10 SPRING 2001 CHANGES TO NCEP ETA ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SYSTEM: NOAH LAND-SURFACE MODEL.Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR Visiting Scientist, Suitland, MD; and K. E. Mitchell, E. Rogers,V. I. Koren, J. C. Schaake, D. Tarpley, D. Lohmann, P. Grunmann, Q. Duan, and C. Peters-Lidard


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50 P1.12 APPLICATION OF THE PSU SHALLOW-CONVECTION PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME IN 3-D ENVIRONMENTS.Aijun Deng, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and N. L. Seaman, D. R. Stauffer, and R. C. Munoz

55 P1.13 A COMPARISON OF BULK AERODYNAMIC METHODS FOR CALCULATING AIR-SEA FLUXES. Qing Wang, NPS,Monterey, CA; and D. P. Eleuterio

59 P1.14 EVALUATING CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM FLUXES USING REMOTELY SENSED DATA. John R. Mecikalski,CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wl

P1.15 LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AND PARAMETERIZATION OF SURFACE FLUXES IN THE STABLE BOUNDARYLAYER. Robert M. Banta, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and R. K. Newsom and J. K. Lundquist

63 P1.16 EFFECTS OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED GRAVITY WAVE DRAG ON A NUMERICALLY PREDICTED HEAVYRAINFALL EVENT OCCURRED NEAR THE JIRI MOUNTAIN, KOREA. Hye-Yeong Chun, Yonsei Univ., Seoul,Korea; and S.-H. Sohn

P1.17 PAPER HAS BEEN MOVED TO ORAL SESSION 2, NUMBER 2.5A

67 P1.17A PARAMETERIZING BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS USING PDF METHODS. Vincent E. Larson, Univ. of Wisconsin,Milwaukee, Wl; and J.-C. Golaz and W. R. Cotton (Formerly Paper2.5)

72 P1.18 A PHOTOSYNTHESIS-BASED GAS-EXCHANGE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MODEL (GEM) COUPLED WITH ALAND SURFACE SCHEME FOR MESOSCALE APPLICATIONS. Dev dutta S. Niyogi, North Carolina State Univ.,Raleigh, NC; and K. Alapaty and S. Raman

P1.19 A MODIFIED LEVEL 2.5-EPSILON TURBULENCE PARAMETERIZATION APPLIED TO THE NEUTRAL ANDSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYERS. Frank R. Freedman, Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA; and M. Z.Jacobson

74 P1.20 IMPACTS OF PARAMETERIZED CONVECTION ON THE NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTASIA. Young-Youn Park, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and T.-Y. Lee

78 P1.21 IMPLEMENTATION OF AN URBAN CANOPY PARAMETERIZATION IN MM5 FOR MESO-GAMMA-SCALE AIRQUALITY MODELING APPLICATIONS. Tanya L. Otte, NOAA/ARL and U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; andA. Lacser

82 P1.22 BOUNDARY LAYER TURBULENCE AND SURFACE FLUX PARAMETERIZATIONS IN A MESOSCALE MODEL-VERIFICATION WITH AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS. Qing Wang, NPS, Monterey, CA; and K. Rados, J. Kalogiros,H. Zuo, S. Wang, C. Friehe, D. Khelif, and H. Jonsson

SESSION 2: MOIST PROCESSES

86 2.1 THE THEORETICAL FOUNDATION FOR MODELS OF MOIST CONVECTION. Peter R. Bannon, Penn State Univ.,University Park, PA

91 2.2 UTILIZING THE ETA MODEL WITH TWO DIFFERENT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATIONS TO PREDICTCONVECTIVE INITIATION AND EVOLUTION AT THE SPC. John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E.Baldwin, P. R. Janish, and S. J. Weiss

96 2.3 THE HANDLING OF RETURN MOISTURE FLOW IN THE ETA MODEL. Geoffrey S. Manikin,NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC/General Sciences Corp., Camp Springs, MD; and K. E. Mitchell and S. J.Weiss

100 2.4 A COMPARISON STUDY OF CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES FOR PRECIPITATING SYSTEMS INTHE TAIWAN AREA. Ming-Jen Yang, Chinese Culture Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and Q.-C. Tung

2.5 PAPER HAS BEEN MOVED TO POSTER SESSION P1, NUMBER P1.17A

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104 2.5A DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW PARAMETERIZATION FOR REPRESENTING BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS INMESOSCALE MODELS. Jean-Christophe Golaz, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and V. E. Larson and W.R. Cotton (Formerly Paper P1.17)

SESSION 3: BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSSES

109 3.1 GRID RESOLUTION AND SURFACE FLUX AND BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATIONS IN HIGH-RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS. Michelle Whisenhant, NPS, Monterey, CA; and Q. Wang, S. Wang, and J.D. Doyle

113 3.2 MESOSCALE VARIABILITY IN BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.Ankur R. Desai, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and K. J. Davis, D. R. Stauffer, B. P. Reen, R. J. Dobosy,and S. Ismail

117 3.3 VALIDATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER PARAMETERIZATIONS IN A MARITIME STORM USING AIRCRAFT DATA.P. Ola G. Persson, CIRES and NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and B. Walter, J.-W. Bao, and S. A. Michelson

122 3.4 IMPROVING SURFACE FLUX PARAMETERIZATION AT LOW WIND SPEEDS IN THE NAVY COAMPS. ShoupingWang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and Q. Wang

124 3.5 MESOSCALE VARIABILITY IN COASTAL MARINE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYERS. Tracy Haack, NRL,Monterey, CA; and S. D. Burk and R. M. Hodur

SESSION 4: ASSIMILATING MESOSCALE DATA

128 4.1 THE IMPACT OF TRMM DATA ON MESOSCALE NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF SUPER TYPHOON PAKA. Zhao-Xia Pu, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W.-K. Tao, Y. Jia, J. Simpson,S. A. Braun, J. Halverson, A. Hou, and W. Olson

132 4.2 FINE SCALE INITIALIZATION AND PREDICTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER FRENCH MOUNTAINOUSAREAS. Didier Ricard, CNRM and Meteo France, Toulouse, France; and V. Ducrocq and J.-P. Lafore

136 4.3 ADJUSTING SOIL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE USING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS: INTIAL RESULTS FROMA SINGLE COLUMN MODEL. Kiran Alapaty, MCNC-Environmental Programs, Research Triangle Park, NC; andD. D. S. Niyogi and M. Alapaty

140 4.4 ASSIMILATING SINGLE-DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS INTO MESOSCALE MODELS. Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL,

Norman, OK; and W. Gu and J. Gong

SESSION 5: NUMERICS AND MODEL STRUCTURE

142 5.1 THE EFFECTS OF NONHYDROSTATIC DYNAMICS IN HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL FORECASTS. Zavisa I.Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

5.2 THE INFLUENCE OF NUMERICAL ALGORITHMS ON EXPLICITLY SIMULATED COHERENT CLOUDSTRUCTURES. Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wl

147 5.3 A SEMI-LAGRANGIAN DYNAMICAL CORE FOR THE NON-HYDROSTATIC WRF MODEL. R. James Purser,General Sciences Corp., Beltville, MD; and T. Fujita, S. K. Kar, and J. G. Michalakes

151 5.4 APPLICATION OF THE EQUIVALENT GEOPOTENTIAL TO THE PENN/NCAR MESOSCALE M0DEL(MM5) FORIMPROVING PRECIPITATION PREDICTION OVER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. Qiu-Shi Chen, Byrd PolarResearch Center, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH; and L. Bai and D. H. Bromwich

155 5.5 FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM HIGH RESOLUTION NESTS IN THE NCEP MESO ETA MODEL. Thomas J. Black,NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and E. Rogers and G. J. DiMego

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SESSION 6: MESOSCALE COASTAL CIRCULATIONS

157 6.1 THE SANTA CRUZ EDDY: OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS. Cristina L. Archer, Stanford Univ.,Stanford, CA; and M. Z. Jacobson

162 6.2 NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF A LANDFALLING COLD FRONT OBSERVED DURING COAST: RAPIDEVOLUTION AND RESPONSIBLE MECHANISMS. Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. F. Smull andM.-J. Yang

6.3 THE IMPACT OF CALIFORNIA'S COASTAL MOUNTAINS ON THE OBSERVED FRONTAL EVOLUTION DURING AMAJOR LAND-FALLING WINTER STORM. Paul J. Neiman, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and P. 0. G. Persson,F. M. Ralph, and D. P. Jorgensen

166 6.4 COMPARISONS BETWEEN LIDAR MEASUREMENTS AND MODEL SIMULATIONS OF THE SEA BREEZE AT

MONTEREY BAY. Lisa S. Darby, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Banta and R. A. Pielke, Sr.

171 6.5 THE SUBTROPICAL SEA BREEZE. John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

6.6 VERTICAL POLLUTANT TRANSPORT BY THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT AT GALVESTON BAY IN OPPOSINGSYNOPTIC FLOW. Robert M. Banta, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and C. J. Senff, L. S. Darby, and R. J. Alvarez

SESSION 7: OROGRAPHIC SYSTEMS

7.1 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION STRUCTURES DURING THE INTERMOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION EXPERIMENT.David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

7.2 THE DYNAMICS OF MOUNTAIN-INDUCED ROTORS. James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. R. Durran

175 7.3 THE MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. Justin Sharp, Univ. of Washington,Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

180 7.3A STRUCTURE OF WAKE NORTH OF THE ALPS: STUDY OF PV BANNERS DURING AN EPISODE OF DEEP SOUTHFOEHN. Vanda Grubisic, DRI, Reno, NV

184 7.4 MICROPHYSICAL TIMESCALES AND OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION. Qingfang Jiang, Yale Univ., New Haven,CT; and R. B. Smith

7.5 STRATIFIED FLOWS PAST 3D RIDGES AT INTERMEDIATE ROSSBY NUMBER. Craig C. Epifanio, NCAR,Boulder, CO; and D. Muraki and R. Rotunno

187 7.6 ESSENTIAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL AND THEIR POTENTIAL APPLICATION FORPREDICTION. Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. Chiao, J. A. Thurman, M. L. Kaplan,and T.-A. Wang

192 7.7 OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION AND AIRMASS DRYING OVER THE ALPS: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROMMAP I0P2B. Ronald B. Smith, Yale Univ., New Haven, CT; and Q. Jiang, M. G. Fearon, J. D. Doyle, and R.Benoit

196 7.8 OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS DURING IPEXI0P3. Justin A. W. Cox, NOAA/CIRP and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh, D. E.Kingsmill, and B. A. Colle

POSTER SESSION P2: MESOSCALE DATA ASSIMILATION FOR NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION AND RESEARCHAPPLICATIONS

198 P2.1 ASSIMILATION OF MULTI-SENSOR RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS FOR IMPROVED QUANTITATIVE PREDICTIONFORECASTS. S. Q. Peng, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou

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NINTH CONFERENCE ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES

MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELS AND FIELD OBSERVATION PLATFORMS TO EVALUATE AIRBORNETRANSPORT OF HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. Arthur L. Doggett IV, Texas TechUniv., Lubbock, TX; and T. E. Gill, C.-b. Chang, and R. E. Peterson

USING IMPROVED BACKGROUND ERROR COVARIANCES FROM AN ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER FORTARGETED OBSERVATIONS. Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/ERL/CDC and CIRES, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder

MESOSCALE STOCHASTIC—DYNAMIC WEATHER PREDICTION FOR THE 2002 OLYMPIC WINTER GAMES.Andrew J. Siffert, NOAA/CIRP and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. J. Onton and W. J. Steenburgh

NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF HURRICANE BRET (21-23 AUGUST 1999) OBSERVED BY TRMM. OlivierNuissier, CNRS, Toulouse, France; and F. Roux and N. Viltard

P2.6 PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THE GPS PW ASSIMILATION IN TO A LIMITED-AREA MODEL: A CASE STUDYFOR IOP8 MAP/SOP. Claudia Faccani, Univ. of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; and R. Ferretti, C. Scairretta, R. Pacione,F. Vespe, and G. Visconti

SIMULATION OF HURRICANE BRET FLUXES AND IMPACT OF HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE-DERIVED SSTS.Loren D. White, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and R. S. Reddy and R. Miller

THE IMPACT OF INITIAL DATA AND ANALYSIS METHODS ON MM5 FORECASTS OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.James F. Bresch, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Vandenberghe

ANALYSIS OF THE MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE 24-25 JANUARY 2000STORM. Daryl T. Kleist, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wl; and H. M. Kim and M. C. Morgan

ENSEMBLE BASED ERROR COVARIANCE MATRICES FOR MESOSCALE VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION.M. S. F. V. De Pondeca, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou

ASSIMILATION OF RAIN RATES USING SATELLITE DATA BY A REGIONAL SPECTRAL MODEL. Ana MariaBueno Nunes, Centra de Previsao do Tempo e Estudos Climaticos, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil

COMPARISON OF THE SSM/I SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS WITH MM5 SIMULATIONS. S.-H. Chen, NCAR,Boulder, CO; and F. Vandenberghe, G. Petty, W. Huang, and J. Bresch

INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HETEROGENEITIES ON BOUNDARY LAYER DYNAMICS AND SECONDARYCOHERENT CIRCULATIONS. Adrian Marroquin, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Peilke, Sr.

POSTER SESSION P3: THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MESOSCALE PREDICTION MODELS

234 P3.1 OPERATIONAL FIRE WEATHER SUPPORT THROUGH THE USE OF A MESOSCALE FORECAST MODEL. MichaelP. Meyers, NOAA/NWSFO, Grand Junction, CO; and E. M. Page, R. L. McAnelly, and W. R. Cotton

236 P3.2 THE SENSITIVITY OF NESTING STRATEGY OF THE NCEP REGIONAL SPECTRAL MODEL. Hann-Ming HenryJuang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and S.-Y. Hong

238 P3.3 AN UPPER BOUNDARY CONDITION FOR NONHYDROSTATIC MODELS ABSORBING BOTH GRAVITY ANDACOUSTIC WAVES. R. James Purser, General Sciences Corp., Beltsville, MD; and S. K. Kar

242 P3.4 A MESOSCALE MODEL FOR GLOBAL MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING IN CANADA. Stephane Belair,MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J. Mailhot, A. Tremblay, A.-M. Leduc, A. Methot, M. Roch, and P. Vaillancourt

246 P3.5 MESOSCALE MODEL EVALUATION OF A NEW INTEGRATION SCHEME FOR THE MET OFFICE UNIFIED MODEL.Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., UK; and T. Davies, H. Lean, and P. Clark

SESSION 8: MESOSCALE MODEL VERIFICATION

249 8.1 A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE COLD BIAS IN COAMPS. Hung-Neng S. Chin, LLNL,Livermore, CA; and M. J. Leach, G. A. Sugiyama, and F. J. Aluzzi

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8.2 DOES INCREASING HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION PRODUCE BETTER FORECASTS? THE RESULTS OF TWOYEARS OF REAL-TIME NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. Cliff F. Mass, Univ.of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Ovens, K. Westrick, and B. A. Colle

255 8.3 VERIFICATION OF MESOSCALE FEATURES IN NWP MODELS. Michael E. Baldwin, NOAA/NWS/SPC and

NOAA/NSSL/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and S. Lakshmivarahan and J. S. Kain

SESSION 9: MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY AND ENSEMBLES

259 9.1 SHORT TERM MESOSCALE ENSEMBLES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES DURING THE MONSOON.David R. Bright, NOAA/NWSFO, Tucson, AZ; and S. L. Mullen and D. J. Stensrud

9.2 PREDICTABILITY STUDIES WITH THE NCEP SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING (SREF) SYSTEM. M.Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MA; and J. Du

9.3 EVALUATION OF A MESOSCALE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFICNORTHWEST. Eric P. Grimit, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

9.4 SENSITIVITY OF THE 3-4 MAY 1999 TORNADIC OUTBREAK TO SYNOPTIC SCALE INITIAL CONDITIONS. PaulJ. Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wl; and D. Schultz and R. Romero

264 9.5 STATUS REPORT ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE GRAVITY WAVES WITH NUMERICAL WEATHERPREDICTION MODELS. Steven E. Koch, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO

269 9.6 THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST CONVECTION ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF LARGE SCALES. Fuqing Zhang, NCAR,Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder and R. Rotunno

MESOSCALE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION OF MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES. Mohan K. Ramamurthy, Univ. of Illinois,Urbana, IL; and B. Cui

A COMPARISON OF MESOSCALE MODEL FORECAST ACCURACY USING RANDOM AND A SIMPLIFIEDTARGETTING APPROACH. Wendell A. Nuss, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. K. Miller

INFERENCES OF PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM SEASON PRECIPITATION EPISODES. R. E.Carbone, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. D. Turtle, D. A. Ahijevych, and S. B. Trier

FORECAST EVALUATION OF A MIXED-PHYSICS ENSEMBLE. Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson,AZ; and S. L. Mullen, D. J. Stensrud, and H. E. Brooks

SESSION 10: CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS

SIMPLE NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF CONVECTIVE LINES WITH LEADING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION.Matthew D. Parker, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

ON ADEQUATE RESOLUTION FOR THE SIMULATION OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION: THEORY ANDPRELIMINARY SIMULATIONS. George H. Bryan, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

THE SENSITIVITY OF MODELED SUPERCELL STORM DYNAMICS TO SEVERAL CLOUD MICROPHYSICALPARAMETERS. Susan C. van den Heever, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

THE ROLE OF LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN PROMOTING STRONG, LONG-LIVED SQUALL LINES.Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno

EFFECTS OF AMBIENT SHEAR ON LIFTING PRODUCED BY COLD POOLS. Richard Rotunno, NCAR, Boulder,CO; and M. L. Weisman

OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF A LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVELY GENERATEDMESOSCALE VORTEX. Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis

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NINTH CONFERENCE ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES

HORIZONTAL SCALE SELECTION AND THE ROLE OF GRAVITY WAVES IN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARYLAYER. Todd P. Lane, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Clark

FAVORED REGIONS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. Donna F. Tucker, Univ. ofKansas, Lawrence, KS; and N. A. Crook

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE UNITED STATES DURING 1999-2000. Christopher J.Anderson, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and R. W. Arritt and L. Strehlow

POSTER SESSION P4: MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY AND ENSEBLES

321 P4.1 EVALUATION OF RAMS SURFACE WIND FORECASTS FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE COASTALMARINE DEMONSTRATION PROJECT. Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Aikman IIIand J. G. W. Kelley

GAUGING MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY OF AN UNUSUAL HIGH LATITUDE SNOW EVENT VIA A MULTI-MODEL INTERCOMPARISON. Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and R. Thoman

THE BEHAVIOR OF LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND CIRCULATION SURGES OF A MODELED SUPERCELL. Brian J.Gaudet, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

ETA MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE MILLENNIUM SNOWSTORM OF 30-31 DECEMBER 2000. Geoffrey S.Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs and SAIC/General Sciences Corp., Beltsville, MD; and K. F. Brill

IMPACT OF SOIL MOISTURE INITIALIZATION ON A SIMULATED FLASH FLOOD. C. Travis Ashby, ColoradoState Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

WIND ENERGY FORECASTS AND ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY FROM THE RUC. Kevin J. Brundage,NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and M. N.Schwartz

BALANCED INITIALIZATION PROCEDURES AND MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY. Steven E. Koch,NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang

QUANTIFYING THE IMPACT OF OBSERVATIONS USING ENSEMBLES. Brian J. Etherton, Penn State Univ.,University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop

IMPLEMENTATION OF A REAL-TIME SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SYSTEM AT NCEP: ANUPDATE. Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. Tracton

357 P4.10 EVALUATION OF HIGH RESOLUTION MM5 AND ETA FORECASTS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. Brian A. Colle,SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. S. Tongue and J. B. Olson

P4.11 EVALUATION OF THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF MM5 AND ETA SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGES OVER THEEASTERN PACIFIC. Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and C. F. Mass and D. Ovens

P4.12 QUANTIFYING THE PREDICTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY OF MODELS TO IMPROVE AVIATION FORECASTS.Steven R. Silberberg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Kansas City, MO

361 P4.13 DYNAMIC SELECTION FROM AMONG AN ENSEMBLE OF LATERAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR LIMITED-AREA MODELS. Paul A. Nutter, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

P4.14 PREDICTABILITY OF CONVECTION AT 24-48H FORECAST RANGE USING A VERY-HIGH RESOLUTION (6 KM)NWP MODEL. Michael A. Fowle, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wl; and P. J. Roebber

366 P4.15 NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A RIGHT-MOVING STORM OVER FRANCE. Katia Chancibault, CNRM, Toulouse,France; and V. Ducrocq and J.-P. Lafore

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370 P4.16 VARIABILITY IN WARM-SEASON MCS RAINFALL PREDICTABILITY. Isidora Jankov, Iowa State Univ., Ames,IA; and W. A. Gallus, Jr.

372 P4.17 INERTIAL INSTABILITY: CLIMATOLOGY AND POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIP TO SEVERE WEATHERPREDICTABILITY. Russ S. Schumacher, Valparaiso Univ., Valparaiso, IN; and D. M. Schultz

376 P4.18 THE USE OF A 10KM ENSEMBLE TO IMPROVE WARM SEASON MCS RAINFALL PREDICTION. William A.Gallus, Jr., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and M. Segal and I. Jankov

P4.19 24-48H PREDICTABILITY OF LAKE-ENHANCED SNOWBANDS IN THE 2-3 JANUARY 1999 MIDWESTBLIZZARD. James E. Sieveking, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wl; and P. J. Roebber


380 P4.21 AN EXAMINATION OF THE OPERATIONAL PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE TERRAIN-INDUCED FEATURESIN EASTERN COLORADO FROM SEVERAL MODELS. Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. L.Shaw

POSTER SESSION P5: NEW INSIGHTS REGARDING MESOSCALE STRUCTURE BASED ON RECENT FIELDEXPERIMENTS AND NEW OBSERVING PLATFORMS

385 P5.1 LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS AND IMPACTS ON CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. David A.R. Kristovich, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, M. C. Peters, and M. S. Timlin


389 P5.3 VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND CHARACTERISTICS OF TWO LEADING STRATIFORM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVESYSTEMS. Crystalyne R. Pettet, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

394 P5.4 PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY OF MIDWESTERN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DEDUCED FROM GOESSOUNDINGS. Stacy N. Allen, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market and R. Scofield

P5.5 PROFILER OBSERVATIONS OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ZONES. Kevin R. Knupp, Univ. of Alabama,Huntsville, AL; and J. Walters

396 P5.6 SCALE-DISCRIMINATING VORTICITY BUDGET FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. Jason C. Knievel,Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson


401 P5.8 THE DEATH OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD. Vincent E. Larson, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wl; and R. P.Fleishauer, J. A. Kankiewicz, D. L. Reinke, and T. H. Vonder Haar

405 P5.9 REGIMES FOR A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE FLOW OVER AN IDEALISED THREE-DIMENSIONALMESOSCALE MOUNTAIN. Shu-hua Chen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y.-L. Lin

409 P5.10 USE OF LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILERS AND AUTOMATED SURFACE MEASUREMENTS TO INVESTIGATEMESOSCALE STRUCTURE AND PREDICTABILITY. E. G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Dugway, UT

413 P5.11 TOPOGRAPHIC DISTORTION OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND CENTRAL IDAHOMOUNTAINS. W. James Steenburgh, NOAA/CIRP and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and T. R. Blazek

415 P5.12 KINEMATICS OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ITS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. Jason C.Knievel, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

420 P5.13 THE VALUE OF REALTIME UPPER TROPOSPHERIC INERTIAL STABILITY MEASUREMENTS ON TROPICALCONVECTION FORECASTS. John R. Mecikalski, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wl

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422 P5.14 THE USE OF GPS INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASUREMENTS TO SUPPLEMENT WSR-88DPARAMETERS IN DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL. Stephen J.Keighton, NOAA/NWS, Blacksburg, VA; and M. Gillen, G. V. Loganathan, S. Gorugantula, and T. Eisenberger

427 P5.15 LEE WAVES OVER COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY DURING MAP. James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. B.Smith and G. S. Poulos

429 P5.16 A CASE STUDY OF A SEVERE MIDWESTERN PULSE THUNDERSTORM EVENT. Patrick S. Market, Univ. ofMissouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo and R. W. Przybylinski

P5.17 FACTORS INFLUENCING ATMOSPHERIC INTERNAL BORE FORMATION RESULTING FROM COLLIDINGBOUNDARIES. David E. Kingsmill, DRI, Reno, NV

432 P5.18 COMPARISON OF 9-KM WIND FORECASTS VERSUS 27-KM WIND FORECASTS DURING THE NORTHERNGULF OF MEXICO LITTORAL INITIATIVE. Gueorgui V. Mostovoi, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and P. J.Fitzpatrick and Y. Li

434 P5.19 ANALYSIS OF WARM-SEASON MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. John A.Haynes, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. E. Hane, D. L. Andra, E. Berry, F. H. Carr, and R. M.Rabin

439 P5.20 AN OBSERVATIONAL STUDY ON ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR FORMATION OF CLOSED CONVECTIONCELLS. Yuichi Miura, Science Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

442 P5.21 COMPARISON OF IN-SITU AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS OF MESOSCALE MOISTURE STRUCTURE IN ANEASTERN-PACIFIC POLAR FRONTAL WAVE. F. Martin Ralph, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Neiman,C. S. Velden.andW. A. Nuss

447 P5.22 MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND IMPACT OF FASTEX CYCLONES THROUGH MOMENTUM, HEAT, AND WATERBUDGETS (IOPS 11,12,16,17). A. Protat, CETP, Velizy, France; and D. Bouniol and Y. Lemattre

452 P5.23 OBSERVATIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS DRYLINE UTILIZING MOBILE MESONET DATA. Albert E. Pietrycha,NOAA/NSSL, Boulder, CO and Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and E. N. Rasmussen

457 P5.24 OBSERVATIONS OF THE DCVZ USING MOBILE MESONETS DATA. Albert E. Pietrycha, NOAA/NSSL, Boulder,CO and Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and E. N. Rasmussen

461 P5.25 NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MESOSCALE ALPINE PROGRAM (MAP).James A. Thurman, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y.-L. Lin and J. J. Charney

SESSION 11: HURRICANE DYNAMICS AND MODELING

466 11.1 NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE GENESIS OF HURRICANE DIANA (1984). Christopher A. Davis, NCAR,Boulder, CO; and J. G. Powers and L. F. Bosart

470 11.2 WARM-CORE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH HORIZONTAL EDDY HEAT TRANSPORTS INTO THE EYE. Scott A.Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. T. Montgomery, J. Fulton, and D. S. Nolan

11.3 TOWARD A FULLY COUPLED ATMOSPHERE-WAVE-OCEAN HURRICANE PREDICTION MODEL. Shuyi S. Chen,Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and W. Zhao, J. Tenerelli, and M. Donelan

11.4 PAPER WITHDRAWN

SESSION 13: MESQSCALE DYNAMICS

474 13.1 THE ROLE OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE IN THE FORMATION OF A WARM OCCLUDED THERMAL STRUCTUREIN AN INTENSE CONTINENTAL CYCLONE. Derek J. Posselt, Univ.of Wisconsin, Madison, Wl; and J. E. Martin

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477 13.2 DYNAMICAL OVERVIEW OF THE TWO EUROPEAN STORMS OF DECEMBER 1999 USING GENERALIZEDPOTENTIAL VORTICITY INVERSION. P. Arbogast, Meteo-France and CNRM, Toulouse, France; and G. Hello andA. Joly

13.3 MESOSCALE DYNAMICS AND LIFE CYCLE OF THE 24-26 JANUARY 2000 EAST-COAST SNOWSTORM. MelvynA. Shapiro, NCAR and NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang

479 13.4 AGGREGATE EFFECTS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THE INTENSITY AND PROPAGATION OF FRONTS DURINGTHE WARM SEASON. Peter J. Sousounis, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Ml

482 13.5 INCORPORATING TOMS OZONE DATA INTO THE PREDICTION OF A WINTER SNOW STORM. Kun-ll Jang,Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou, Q. Zhao, A. Kruger, and M. A. Shapiro

485 13.6 THE ROLE OF EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES IN GRAVITY WAVE GENESIS. Brian F. Jewett, Univ. of Illinois,Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy and R. M. Rauber

13.7 PAPER HAS BEEN MOVED TO POSTER SESSION 6, NEW PAPER NUMBER 6.22

490 13.8 SIMULATIONS OF WINTER MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AXISYMMETRIC ISOLATEDHEAT AND MOISTURE SOURCES. Neil F. Laird, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and D. A. R. Kristovich and J. E. Walsh

492 13.9 THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY CYCLOGENESIS OF THE MARCH 1993 STORM OF THECENTURY. Karl D. Pfeiffer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. L. Kaplan, Y.-L. Lin, A. J. Riordan, G.M. Lackmann, K. T. Waight III, and D. B. Ensley

497 13.10 CLOUD-RESOLVING NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A POLAR LOW OVER JAPAN SEA. Wataru Yanase, Univ. ofTokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and H. Niino and K. Saito

POSTER SESSION P6: MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS

502 P6.1 MIXING PROCESSES AND THE INTERACTION AMONG 3 ATMOSPHERIC REGIMES IN THE SALT LAKE CITYBASIN. Gregory S. Poulos, Colorado Research Associates, Boulder, CO; and R. Hertenstein

506 P6.2 THE ANTARCTIC MESOSCALE PREDICTION SYSTEM: DEVELOPMENT AND CASE EXAMINATION. Jordan G.Powers, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y.-H. Kuo, J. F. Bresch, D. H. Bromwich, J. J. Cassano, and A. Cayette

511 P6.3 THE INFLUENCE OF ELECTRIFICATION ON MICROPHYSICAL AND DYNAMICAL PROCESSES INSIDETHUNDERSTORMS. Anping Sun, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and H.-Y. Chun

514 P6.4 SIMULATED GRAVITY WAVES PRODUCED BY MCS-LIKE HEATING PROFILES: MCS GEOMETRY AND ITSEFFECTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT. Matthew D. Parker, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

519 P6.5 PARALLEL IMPLEMENTATION OF COMPACT NUMERICAL SCHEMES. Tsukasa Fujita, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC,Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser

523 P6.6 THE ROLE OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC INERTIAL STABILITY IN HURRICANE INTENSIFICATION. Eric D.Rappin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wl; and M. C. Morgan

525 P6.7 THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHTNING DISTRIBUTION DURING THE 1998 FLORIDA WILDFIRES.Arlene G. Laing, Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL; and C. H. Paxton, S. L. Goodrick, D. Sharp, and P. F.Blottman

529 P6.8 NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF AN OROGRAPHIC RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ATROPICAL STORM OVER A MESOSCALE MOUNTAIN. Sen Chiao, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; andY.-L. Lin

P6.9 DIAGNOSIS OF A RAPID SURFACE CYCLOLYSIS EVENT IN THE BERING SEA. Nathan Marsili, Univ. ofWisconsin, Madison, Wl; and J. E. Martin

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533 P6.10 A NUMERICAL STUDY ON CHARACTERISTICS OF INTERNAL GRAVITY WAVES IN THE STRATOSPHEREINDUCED BY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. In-Sun Song, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and H.-Y. Chun

537 P6.11 A MIXED LAYER MODEL OF THE DIURNAL DRYLINE. Patrick A. Jones, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA;and P. R. Bannon

539 P6.12 THE ROLE OF MESOSCALE DRY INTRUSION IN THE WASHINGTON, D.C. SNOWSTORM OF MARCH 9, 1999.Richard P. James, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. H. E. Clark and R. H. Grumm

543 P6.13 IMPROVEMENT OF HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPUTATION IN A TERRAIN FOLLOWINGCOORDINATE. Sang-Hun Park, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea; and T.-Y. Lee, H.-Y. Chun, and S.-Y. Hong

547 P6.14 EVALUATION OF THE MM5 AND WORKSTATION ETA MODELS NEAR TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA. Todd P.Lericos, NOAA/NWS, Tallahassee, FL; and T. J. Turnage, A. I. Watson, H. E. Fuelberg, and S. Goodrick

552 P6.15 VORTEX-LINES AND AIRFLOW STRUCTURE NEAR A TORNADO-LIKE VORTEX IN A SIMULATED MINI-SUPERCELL. Akira Noda, Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and H. Niino

557 P6.16 SOME DYANMICAL ASPECTS OF THE MISTRAL. Qingfang Jiang, Yale Univ., New Haven, CT; and R. B. Smithand J. Doyle

561 P6.17 SENSITIVITY TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA TO MODEL PHYSICS. C. MichaelTrexler, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

565 P6.18 FINE-SCALE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF A HEAVY SNOWBAND. Robert M. Rauber, Univ. of Illinois,Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy, B. F. Jewett, and M. Han

P6.19 RADAR CHARACTERISTICS OF SEVERE WIND-PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTHERNHIGH PLAINS. Brian A. Klimowski, NOAA/NWSFO, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt

569 P6.20 NUMERICAL STUDY OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT. Qinghong Zhang,NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K.-H. Lau, Y.-H. Kuo, and S.-J. Chen

P6.21 SENSITIVITY OF OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION TO CHANGING AMBIENT CONDITIONS: AN IDEALIZEDMODELING PERSPECTIVE. Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY

573 P6.22 MESOSCALE PROCESSES INVOLVED IN FASTEX SECONDARY CYCLONES. Dominique Bouniol, CNRS, Velizy,France; and Y. Lemaftre and A. Protat (Formerly Paper 13.7)

SESSION 14: MESOSCALE CIRCULATION AND THEIR INTERACTIONS WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE

14.1 USE OF A MESOSCALE MODEL TO FORECAST TORNADIC STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTALOFT. Stan Rose, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. T. Stoelinga, J. D. Locatelli, and P. V. Hobbs

578 14.2 THE RAPID GROWTH AND DECAY OF A LOW-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CENTRALPACIFIC OCEAN. Jonathan E. Martin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wl; and J. A. Otkin

14.3 NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A DRYLINE-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION. Christopher C. Weiss, Univ.of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein

581 14.4 MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENTS WHICH CHARACTERIZE SEVERE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TURBULENCE.Michael L. Kaplan, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y.-L. Lin, J. J. Charney, K. T. Waight III, A. W.Huffman, J. D. Cetola, and K. M. Lux

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JOINT SESSION J1: MESOSCALE MODELS

J1.1 OPERATIONAL OVERVIEW OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) AT THE AIR FORCE WEATHERAGENCY (AFWA). Ed Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and J. Wegiel, S. Applequist, and S.Hausman

J1 J1.2 THE NEXT VERSION OF THE CANADIAN OPERATIONAL GEM REGIONAL MESOSCALE MODEL. JocelynMailhot, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and S. Belair, A. Tremblay, A. Methot, B. Bilodeau, L.-P. Crevier, and A.Glazer

J6 J1.3 RECENT AND PLANNED CHANGES TO THE NCEP ETA ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SYSTEM. Eric Rogers,NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. J. Black, G. DiMego, Y. Lin, K. E. Mitchell, D. Parrish, M. B. Ek,and B. S. Ferrier

J7 J1.4 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OF THE COUPLED OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE MESOSCALE PREDICTION SYSTEM(COAMPS). Teddy R. Holt, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt, S. Chen, J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, D. Westphal,X. Hong, J. Puller, M. Liu, J. Cummings, A. Mirin, and G. Sugiyama

J11 J1.5 PROTOTYPES FOR THE WRF (WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECAST) MODEL. William C. Skamarock, NCAR,Boulder, CO; and J. B. Klemp and J. Dudhia

J1.6 CURRENT STATUS OF THE ARPS MODELING SYSTEM. Kelvin Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

JOINT POSTER SESSION JP1: MESOSCALE MODELS

J16 JP1.1 ON THE CONCEPT OF RELATIVE BUOYANCY. Charles A. Doswell III, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and P. M.Markowski

J21 JP1.2 FORETELL: AN OPERATIONAL FORECASTING SYSTEM DESIGNED FOR THE SURFACE TRANSPORTATIONCOMMUNITY. John S. Snook, Colorado Research Associates, Boulder, CO

J25 JP1.3 REGIONAL SCALE MODELING FOR THE 2002 OLYMPIC WINTER GAMES. Daryl J. Onton, CIRP/Univ. of Utah,Salt Lake City, UT; and A. J. Siffert, L. Cheng, W. J. Steenburgh, and B. Haymore

J27 JP1.4 COMMERCIAL APPLICATION OF THE ADVANCED REGIONAL PREDICTION SYSTEM (ARPS). Richard L.Carpenter, Jr., Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Norman, OK; and G. M. Bassett

J31 JP1.5 DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLED AIR-LAKE MESOSCALE MODEL FOR OPERATIONAL MARINE FORECASTINGIN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. Peter J. Sousounis, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Ml; and G. E. Mann, D. J.Schwab, and R. B. Wagenmaker

J36 JP1.6 AN OBJECTIVE EVALUATION AND REGIME CLASSIFICATION OF RAMS FORECAST ERRORS DURING THE2000 FLORIDA WARM SEASON. Jonathan L. Case, NASA Kennedy Space Center/Applied MeteorologyUnit/ENSCO Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco, A. V. Dianic, D. E. Harms, and P. N. Rosati

J41 JP1.7 COMPARISON BETWEEN THE PERFORMANCE OF ETA AND SIGMA MODES IN THE NCEP MESO ETA MODEL.Hui-Ya Chuang, General Sciences Corp., Camp Springs, MD; and G. J. DiMego and T. J. Black

J43 JP1.8 EVENT-BASED VERIFICATION OF MESOSCALE MODEL WIND FORECASTS USING SSM/I. Jason E. Nachamkin,NRL, Monterey, CA

J47 JP1.9 A QUANTITATIVE COMPARISON OF MM5 CLOUD FORECASTS AND GOES CLOUD ANALYSES. Michael A.Kelly, Litton-TASC, Chantilly, VA; and R. J. Alliss, M. E. Craddock, and J. C. Lefever

JP1.10 MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELING: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEENDISSIMILAR MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELS. Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and W. Shulzand A. J. Reiss

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J52 JP1.11 HIGH-RESOLUTION SIMULATIONS OF HURRICANE FLOYD USING MM5 WITH VORTEX-FOLLOWING MESHREFINEMENT. Joseph E. Tenerelli, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

J55 JP1.12 USES OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELING TO SUPPORT ARMY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT,TESTING, AND EVALUATION. Scott Swerdlin, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, T. Warner, and J. F. Bowers

J59 JP1.13 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONS: FORECASTED VS. OBSERVED EVOLUTION. Eyad H. Atallah, SUNY, Albany,NY; and L. F. Bosart

J62 JP1.14 A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A RARE LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL IN WESTERN NEVADA. Mary M. Cairns,NOAA/NWS, Reno, NV; and J. Corey and D. R. Koracin

J65 JP1.15 THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE NUMERICAL SCHEMES IN THE HERMITIAN FINITE ELEMENTS SPACES.Ireneusz A. Winnicki, Military Univ. of Technology, Warsaw, Poland

J67 JP1.16 AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN A HEIGHT TENDENCY EQUATION: TWO CASE STUDIES. Anthony R. Lupo, Univ.of Missouri, Columbia, MO

JOINT SESSION J2: MESOSCALE DATA ASSIMILATION

J72 J2.1 A THREE-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEME FOR A STORM SCALE MODEL. JidongGao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. Brewster, F. Carr, and K. K. Droegemeier

J2.2 PAPER WITHDRAWN

J75 J2.3 THE 20-KM VERSION OF THE RUC. Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Grell, S. S.Weygandt, T. L. Smith, T. G. Smirnova, B. E. Schwartz, D. Kim, D. Devenyi, K. J. Brundage, J. M. Brown, and G.S. Manikin

J80 J2.4 INITIAL VERIFICATION OF THE MM5 3DVAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM. Dale M. Barker, NCAR, Boulder,CO; and W. Huang, Y.-R. Guo, and F. C. Vandenberghe

J84 J2.5 THE WRF 3D-VAR ANALYSIS SYSTEM. W.-S. Wu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Xue, T.Schlatter, R. J. Purser, M. McAtee, J. Gao, D. Devenyi, J. C. Derber, D. M. Barker, S. Benjamin, and R. Aune

J2.6 PAPER HAS BEEN MOVED TO JOINT POSTER SESSION JP2, PAPER NUMBER JP2.5A

J87 J2.6A EXPLICIT INITIALIZATION OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN MESOSCALE FORECAST MODELS. Brent LShaw, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. A. McGinley and P. Schultz (Formerly Paper JP2.5)

J92 J2.7 SPRING 2001 CHANGES TO NCEP ETA ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SYSTEM: ASSIMILATION OF OBSERVEDPRECIPITATION DATA. Ying Lin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. E. Baldwin, K. E. Mitchell,E. Rogers, and G. J. DiMego

J96 J2.8 THE FOUR-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM FOR THE JMA MESOSCALE MODEL.Ko Koizumi, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

J2.9 PAPER WITHDRAWN

J99 J2.9A DATA ASSIMILATION & FORECAST TESTS OF A NEW INTEGRATION SCHEME FOR THE MET OFFICE UNIFIEDMODEL. Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., UK; and T. Davies, R. S. Bell, and A. M. Clayton(Formerly WAF/NWP Paper P2.15)

J103 J2.10 3DVAR ANALYSIS IN THE RAPID UPDATE CYCLE. Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G.Benjamin and S. S. Weygandt

J108 J2.11 AN OPERATIONAL MESOSCALE RT-FDDA ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SYSTEM. Jennifer M. Cram, NCAR,Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, S. Low-Nam, R.-S. Sheu, L. Carson, C. A. Davis, T. Warner, and J. F. Bowers

* Manuscript not available xvii

TABLE OF CONTENTS


JOINT POSTER SESSION JP2: MESOSCALE DATA ASSIMILATION

JP2.1 PAPER WITHDRAWN

J113 JP2.2 CLOUD/HYDROMETEOR INITIALIZATION FOR THE 20-KM RUC USING SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.Dongsoo Kim, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin

J116 JP2.3 A REAL-TIME, THREE-DIMENSIONAL CLOUD ANALYSIS SYSTEM AT THE NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY.Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Cook, K. Sashegyi, Q. Xu, and L. Wei

J118 JP2.4 EXPANDING THE VARIATIONAL METHODS IN THE LAPS MOISTURE ANALYSIS. Daniel Birkenheuer,NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO

JP2.5 PAPER HAS BEEN MOVED TO JOINT SESSION J2, PAPER NUMBER J2.6A

J122 JP2.5A THE USE OF THREE-DIMENSIONAL ANALYSES OF CLOUD ATTRIBUTES FOR DIABATIC INITIALIZATION OFMESOSCALE MODELS. Paul Schultz, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Albers (Formerly Paper J2.6)

J125 JP2.6 NIDS-BASED INTERMITTENT DIABATIC ASSIMILATION AND APPLICATION TO STORM-SCALE NUMERICALWEATHER PREDICTION. Donghai Wang, Hampton Univ. and NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and K. K. Droegemeier,D. Jahn, K.-M. Xu, M. Xue, and J. Zhang

J129 JP2.7 ON THE ADDED VALUE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION REMOTELY SENSED SOIL MOISTURE DATA IN A MESOSCALEMODEL. Brian P. Reen, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, K. J. Davis, A. R. Desai, andR. J. Dobosy

J134 JP2.8 THE INTRODUCTION OF A LOCAL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS MODULE IN THE NUMERICAL FORECAST SYSTEMAT THE BRAZILIAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Ligia R. Bernardet, Institute Nacional de Meteorologia,Brasilia, Brazil; and R. B. Silveira, J. P. Edwards, J. M. D. Mol, and A. F. M. Falcao

J135 JP2.9 AN OPERATIONAL LOCAL DATA INTEGRATION SYSTEM (LDIS) AT NWS MELBOURNE. Peter F. Blottman,NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Spratt, D. W. Sharp, A. J. Cristaldi III, J. Case, and J. Manobianco

JP2.10 ASSIMILATION OF GOES LAND SURFACE DATA INTO MESOSCALE MODELS. William M. Lapenta,NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and R. Suggs, R. T. McNider, G. Jedlovec, and S. R. Dembek

J139 JP2.11 APPLICATION OF THE BRATSETH SCHEME FOR HIGH LATITUDE INTERMITTENT DATA ASSIMILATION USINGTHE PSU/NCAR MM5 MESOSCALE MODEL. Xingang Fan, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and J. S. Tilley

J144 JP2.12 REVISITING THE UTILITY OF NEWTONIAN NUDGING FOR FOUR DIMENSIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION IN HIGHLATITUDE MESOSCALE FORECASTS. Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and X. Fan

J149 JP2.13 USE OF A SNOW PREDICTION SCHEME IN A MESOSCALE REALTIME FDDA SYSTEM. Simon Low-Nam, NCAR,Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, J. M. Cram, Y. Liu, R.-S. Sheu, and J. Dudhia

J154 JP2.14 IMPACT OF CONTINUOUS REAL-TIME FDDA ON SHORT-TERM (0-12 HOUR) FORECASTS. Yubao Liu, NCAR,Boulder, CO; and J. M. Cram, C. A. Davis, T. Warner, S. Low-Nam, and R.-S. Sheu

J159 JP2.15 NEW SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS IMPLEMENTED AT NCEP. Jean Thiebaux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP,Camp Springs, MD; and B. Katz and W. Wang

JP2.16 PAPER WITHDRAWN

J164 JP2.17 REFRACTIVITY DATA ASSIMILATION. Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. Nai, T. Rogers, T. Haack, andS. Burk

J168 JP2.18 A MM5-BASED FOUR-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL ANALYSIS SYSTEM DEVELOPED FOR DISTRIBUTEDMEMORY MULTIPROCESSOR COMPUTERS. Frank H. Ruggiero, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB,MA; and G. D. Modica, T. Nehrkorn, M. Cerniglia, J. G. Michalakes, and X. Zou

* Manuscript not available xviii

ninth conference on mesoscale processes - gbv · 2007. 3. 16. · zavisa i. janjic, noaa/nws/ncep,...

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