nigeria real estate industry outlook 2017 report (abridged version)
TRANSCRIPT
REAL ESTATEI N D U S T RY O U T L O O K 2 0 1 7
Market Trends, Opportuni t ies & Risks in Uncertain
Economic TimesCromwell PSI
NIGERIA
Copyright © 2017
All rights reserved
No part of this publication shall be reproduced, transmitted, shared or sold in whole or in part,without the prior written consent of Cromwell Professional Services International. Alltrademarks remain the property of the company.
Users of information in this report are advised to do their due diligence before making businessor investment decisions. Information contained in this report should be independently verifiedby a qualified professional. Nothing contained in this report should be construed as business orinvestment advice.
Thank you.
Cromwell PSI2
Introduction
3
This report is a vital tool for investors, developers, regulators and stakeholders who want to develop and execute strategies that unlock value and mitigate risk in Nigeria’s real estate market.
We are pleased to present this maiden edition of the Real Estate Industry
Outlook Report for 2017.
Over the last decade, the Nigerian real estate industry has experienced
significant growth, and has risen to become the 5th biggest contributor to
GDP. Despite the present economic challenges and a full-year recession in
2016, this report reveals the macroeconomic forces that could affect the
performance of the Nigerian real estate industry in 2017.
Nigeria’s rising international profile as Africa’s largest economy and one the
continent’s most promising emerging markets portends interesting
opportunities and possibilities in the long term for the real estate industry.
The goal of this report is to provide you with insights and information to
make the right decisions in 2017.
Happy reading!
Olusola Olalekan Enitan F.N.I.V.S, RSV, MIAM
Country LeaderCromwell Professional Services International
In this Report: page
Nigeria’s Macroeconomic Outlook 4
The Real Estate Industry in 2017 10
Industry Overview 11
Impending Legislation 16
Market Analysis 19
About Us 29
Appendices 45
Macroeconomic Outlook
5
Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth outlook for 2017 reflects aslow comeback from weak commodity prices and multipledomestic challenges.
0.4%
3.6%
5.9%
3.6%
-1.54%
0.4%
1.2%
7.5%
6.1%
6.6%
2.2%
1.8%
Angola
Ghana
Kenya
Mozambique
Nigeria
South Africa
2017 2016
The regional outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa shows an average
GDP growth rate of 4%. However, African economies reliant on
extractive industries, especially Nigeria, South Africa and Angola
are unlikely to achieve this average in 2017 due to unstable
commodity prices and domestic challenges which include rising
inflation and plunging currencies.
With slowing economic growth in China, commodity prices
have declined sharply with oil prices plummeting from a high of
US$114 per barrel in 2014 to a low of US$28 per barrel in 2016.
This has had severe impacts on Africa’s commodity-dependent
economies, which showed modest gains immediately after the
global crisis but continue to experience slow growth in tandem
with declining commodity prices.
Unless commodity prices significantly recover in 2017, it is
unlikely that Africa’s biggest economies – South Africa and
Nigeria – will experience any considerable growth this year.
Sources: World Bank, Cromwell Research
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
6Sources: MBNP, NBS, FMF and CBN
After more than a decade of steady economic growth, Nigeria’s indicators have worsened due to acombination of external and internal challenges.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
8.9
7.1
5.64.7
3.1 2.7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
100
200
300
400
500
5
10
15
20
25
FDI has depleted by more than 60%
Inflation has nearly doubled in 12 months
The Naira has lost over 60% of its value
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
10
20
30
40
50
US$ Billions
US$ Billions
Naira/USD
- - Parallel Market Inter-bank
External reserves are in steady decline
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
7
Despite a negative growth of -1.54% in 2016, Nigeria’s Real GDP is projected to grow and improveslightly to 2.19% in 2017.
Nigeria’s economy is expected to be on the road to recovery in 2017. Real
GDP is projected to grow and improve slightly from an estimated negative
growth of -1.54 percent in 2016 to 2.19 percent in 2017. This growth will be
driven by a fiscal stimulus facilitated by an expected increase in oil prices, an
increase in non-oil federal receipts, an increase in oil production, and
resolution of payment arrears especially joint venture cash calls.
In addition to expected economic recovery due to positive growth in the oil
sector, increased growth in the non-oil sector especially agriculture,
manufacturing, services and light industries will be central in overall GDP
growth.
While crude oil output is forecast to rise from an average of 1.8 mbpd in 2016
to 2.2 mbpd in 2017, depressed global oil prices could lead to a continuation
of the government’s structural adjustments and devaluation of the Naira.
However, the average price of crude oil is expected to rise by 11.8% from
US$38 in 2016 to US$42.50 in 2017.
Inflation jumped from 9.5% (December 2015) to 18.5% (November 2016)
due to the combined effects of currency depreciation, higher energy prices
and high cost of inputs.
Key Macroeconomic indicators
2016 (Est.) 2017 (Outlook)
Real GDP Growth % -1.54 2.19
Non-oil GDP % Oil GDP %
-0.07-15.41
0.2024.30
Gross Domestic Investment 13.95 13.90
Inflation Rate % 18.55 15.74
Oil Price Benchmark, US$ 38.00 42.50
Oil Production (mbpd) 1.8 2.2
External Trade Balance 0.31 1.80
Consumer Price index 213.60 247.22
Unemployment rate 14.20 16.32
World Bank Doing Business Index
169/190 169/190
Sources: MBNP, NBS, FMF and CBN
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
10,709
8,623
4,417
4,391
3,514
2,030
1,898
1,837
1,592
1,291
1,139
1,037
Crop Production
Trade
Oil & Gas
Telecoms & ICT
Real Estate
Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Construction
Professional Services
Other Services
Financial Institutions
Public Administration
Education
Macroeconomic Outlook
8
Seven sub-sectors contribute more than 70 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP. It is very unlikely thecountry’s GDP profile would change significantly in 2017.
Sources: MBNP, NBS, FMF and CBN
Services(53.2%)
Agriculture(23.1%)
Manufacturing(9.5%)
Oil & Gas(9.6%)
Real Estate & Construction(3.9%)
Utilities (0.5%)
Solid minerals (0.1%)The oil sector accounts for less than 10% of
Nigeria’s GDP but remains the largest contributor of
export earnings and government revenues. The
sector experienced negative growth in 2016, with an
estimated contraction of -15.4%.
The biggest contributors to GDP are services(including retail and wholesale trade), agriculture,
manufacturing and construction and real estate).
While the oil and gas sector contribution to GDP
continues to decline, the non-oil contributors have
grown steadily at an average rate of 6.2% between
2010 and 2015, and are largely responsible for the
growth of Nigeria’s GDP (avg. 4.8%) during that
period.
In light of their historical growth rates, Nigeria’s
non-oil sector could provide resilience and modest
recovery to the economy in 2017.
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
9
Our outlook presents three potential macroeconomic scenarios for 2017 with significant positiveand negative implications for Nigeria.
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Status Quo Best Case Worst Case
Description Nigeria does not pursue macroeconomic or structural reforms and continues to conduct business as usual in the hope that oil prices recover.
Nigeria implements macroeconomic and structural reforms, and makes a big push to significantly diversify the economy.
The economic contraction worsens due to a combination of domestic and external factors, especially a precipitous fall in oil prices and incapable leadership.
Possible Implications
The economy would continue to
contract in the short term and GDP
could decline by -0.5% in 2017.
Income per capita would decline as
total GDP stays relatively flat while
the population grows.
Low FDI, continued exchange rate
volatility and low market
confidence.
The economy would recover
strongly and GDP growth could
reach 2.2% in 2017, driven by
strong non-oil sector growth.
Increased public and private
investment, higher FDI, stable
exchange rate, reduced obstacles
to doing business, and high market
confidence.
The economy could deteriorate
significantly, leading to a GDP
contraction below -2% in 2017.
Financial sector meltdown, wildly
volatile exchange rate, hyper-
inflation, capital flight and
significant loss of confidence in
the Nigerian economy.
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
12
Since 2000, the real estate sector has grown rapidly, at an average growth rate of 11.4% between2010 and 2015. However, the sector may have declined by up to -2.19% in 2016.
Sources: NBS, CBN
Industry Overview
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2016e 2017f
Y-o-Y
Grow
th
Rea
l Est
ate
Sect
or S
ize
(Nai
ra m
illio
n)
Nigerian Real Estate Sector Size & Growth Trends (2000-2015)
The real estate and construction sector contributed
3.9% of real GDP in 2015, employed nearly 1 million
formal workers, and has been one of the fastest
growing sectors of the Nigerian economy.
Following negative growth in 2016, the sector is
forecast to grow at an average rate of 5.39%
between 2017-2020 with the support of private and
public investment.
The real estate market was less vigorous in 2015-16
due to the country’s macro-economic and socio-
political challenges which led to suspension of some
planned real estate development projects, slowdown
in growth of rents, inflation of construction materials
and labour costs.
In 2017, we anticipate a flat or modest recovery from
the sector’s decline in 2016.
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
13
Despite its current challenges, the medium to long term outlook for the real estate sector suggestsstrong growth due to several favourable socio-economic factors.
Sources: MBNP, NBS, FMF and CBN
Nigeria’s population, currently over 180 million and growing at an
average annual rate of 3%, remains a major driver of growth for the
real estate industry.
Other major growth drivers are rising urbanisation, a growing
middle class, increasing investment from local participants,
including Pension funds and Mutual funds; the growing number of
High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) investing in real estate, and
targeted intervention by the Federal Government in the housing
finance sector.
Increased foreign and domestic investment is another significant
driver of growth for the real estate industry. In the long term, we
expect the industry to experience an increasing entry of foreign
developers, investors and service firms; increased joint venture
arrangements between local sponsors and financial as well as
strategic partners; and development expansion into secondary (Tier
2) cities such as Ibadan, Owerri, Abeokuta, Enugu and Kano,
among others.
Real Estate Market Growth
Foreign direct investment (FDI)
flows
Institutional participation and
investment from local PFAs and mutual
funds
Growing number of high net worth
individuals (HNWIs) investing in RE
Population shift to urban areas (47%
urbanised)
Growing middle class driving demand for
residential RE
Federal government intervention in the
housing finance sector
Industry Overview
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
14
The residential and retail real estate market segments are driven by Nigeria’s growing population,increasing rural-urban migration, rising consumption and a growing middle class.
Industry Overview
Residential Segment Retail Segment Nigeria has an affordable housing deficit of 17 million houses estimated at
US$363 billion. This number is expected to increase by 2 million houses per year
at the current population growth of 2.8% per year.
The mortgage market remains small, underdeveloped and costly, with interest
rates ranging from 18-30%, and tenors of 1-6 years. Ratio of outstanding
mortgages to GDP stands at 0.6%* compared to 50% in Europe.
The high-end luxury residential segment has been a key revenue generator for
developers, and prime developments are clustered in a handful of
neighbourhoods in Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt. However this segment of the
market is expected to continue lagging in 2017 due to macroeconomic
uncertainty.
Since 2012, a growing number of developers have pivoted towards the largely
underserved mid-range market. This trend is expected to continue in 2017.
The Nigeria Mortgage Refinance Company (NMRC), the Federal Mortgage Bank
of Nigeria will lead the government’s efforts to improve the availability and
affordability of mortgage loans to Nigerians in 2017.
In the current retail real estate market, estimates show there is 1m2 of
retail space per 1,000 people in Nigeria, compared to South Africa’s
480m2 retail space per 1,000 people.^ This translates into significant
opportunities, given the current and future size of Nigeria’s large
population.
Nigeria is considered one of Africa’s leading destinations for retail
property investors due to strong socio-economic fundamentals that
fuel the growing demand for consumer products.
In addition to successful retail developments like the Palms Mall and
Ikeja City Mall, plans are in the pipeline to spend up to US$3.5billion
on 25 new destination malls in Nigeria in 2017.
Supermarket brands such as South Africa’s Shoprite chain and Game,
a subsidiary of Wal-Mart, have proved popular as anchor tenants,
while high-street fashion and lifestyle brands have snapped up retail
space across the country.
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
15
The long-term growth of the commercial, industrial and hospitality real estate segments will bedriven by growing economic activity and FDI inflows.
Industry Overview
Commercial Industrial Hospitality Nigeria’s growing reputation as Africa’s largest
economy and a gateway to the sub-Saharan
regional market has led to strong demand for
Grade-A office space and commercial real estate in
recent years.
The supply-demand gap has raised prices, and
rental figures in Lagos remain among the highest
in the world, with achievable rents at more than
US$85/m2 per month (2014).
Notable commercial real estate developments that
could stimulate the sector in coming years include
the Wings project and Eko Atlantic City project in
Lagos, and the World Trade Centre project in Abuja
-- a mixed-use eight-tower complex development
with AAA office towers, luxury residences and up-
scale shopping that is estimated to cost US$26
billion.
A growing middle class population and retail
activity are driving demand for warehousing
space as well as infrastructure-enabled
industrial clusters and free zones. This can be
attributed to manufacturers and suppliers
seeking premises from which to meet growing
consumer demand.
Nigeria currently has about 25 approved free
zones (schemes set up to strategically improve
the investment climate by stimulating export
oriented business activities), although less than
half of these are operational.
While the industrial real estate segment has a
lot of potential, it remains largely unorganised
and opaque in terms of real estate
development.
The hospitality real estate segment has
experienced growth in recent years due to the
entry of various boutique and luxurious
hospitality players in Nigeria’s major cities.
Notable developments in this segment include
the upgrading of Starwood’s Le Meridien Hotels
into a 7-star suite, Marriott International’s
proposed multi-million dollar investments in the
subsector, the entry of Sheraton’s Four Points
into Akwa Ibom State, and the incursion of
Hilton into several cities in the country.
Although penetration of global hospitality
brands is increasing (with about 20% of total
room supply), local and regional brands will
continue to play an important role.
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
17
Several new bills introduced to the Nigerian federal legislature in 2016 could successfully pass intolaw in 2017 with considerable implications for the real estate industry.
Impending Legislation
Bill Title Description Stage
1 HB 521 National Housing Fund Act (Amendment) Bill, 2016
This Bill seeks to update and strengthen the National Housing Fund
Act with the view to reflect present day realities and stiffen
punishment for violators of the National Housing Fund Act.
1st reading
2 SB 285 Nigerian Assets Management Agency (Establishment and Regulatory) Bill, 2016
This Bill seeks to establish and regulate the Nigerian Assets
Management Agency charged with the responsibility of managing all
Government Assets including those seized, forfeited or taken over by
Federal Government bodies such as the EFCC, ICPC, Police, Customs,
Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps among others
1st reading
3 SB 280 Nigeria Industrial Development and Zones Bill, 2016
This Bill seeks to repeal the Nigeria Export Processing Zone Authority
Act LFN CAP NI07 2004, and enact the Nigeria Industrial Development
and Zones Commission to manage, control and co-ordinate all
activities within the Zones. The Commission will also have control over
all goods deposited or manufactured in the Zones and power to
demarcate areas within the Zones as Customs territory.
1st reading
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
18
The Infrastructure Development Bill, if passed into law, could significantly transform the publicinfrastructure landscape across Nigeria.
Impending Legislation
Bill Title Description Stage
4 Infrastructure Development Bill This Bill seeks to provide for the facilitation and co-ordination of
public infrastructure development to ensure that infrastructure
development in the Nigeria is given priority in planning, approval and
implementation; to ensure that the development goals of the country
are promoted through infrastructure development to broaden the
scope of funding for infrastructural development and to improve the
management of such infrastructure during all lifecycle phases,
including planning, approval, implementation and operations; and to
provide for matters incidental thereto.
2nd reading
5 SB 284 Engineering (Registration etc.) Act (Amendment) Bill, 2016
This Bill seeks to amend the Engineers (Registration, etc) Act Cap E11
laws of the Federation of Nigeria 2004 to introduce a new 5th register
for the registered Engineering firms, broaden the powers of the
Council and its registers and the recognition of other professional
bodies outside the Nigerian Society of engineers and also to make
COREN independent of Government supervision as a professional
regulatory body...
1st reading
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
20
We conducted a national survey and analysis of the real estate market to understand the state andevolution of trends across Nigeria.
Market Analysis
Zones Constituent states
1 North East Taraba, Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Bauchi and Gombe
2 North West Sokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Katsina, Kano and Jigawa
3 North Central Kwara, Kogi, Plateau, Nassarawa, Benue, Niger, FCT Abuja
4 South West Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti
5 South East Imo, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Abia
6 South South Edo, Delta, Rivers, Cross River, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa
Nigeria is a diverse country made up of over 400 ethnic groups and 450 languages, and
administered according to 36 states and a federal capital territory.
In order to streamline the market data collection exercise, and to best understand the market
trends, this survey was divided along the six geo-political zones of Nigeria – a grouping of states
with similar cultures, ethnic groups, and common history.
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
21
Key Findings: The general trend across Nigeria reveals a real estate market weakened by socio-economic challenges. However, some states and regions have remained resilient.
The data collected and analysed presents several insights about the Nigerian real estate market
over the last five years, and projections for 2017. Our key findings are as follows:
a) There is a pervasive slowdown in the major real estate markets, starting in 2015 and
expected to continue in 2017. This is largely due to the economic recession which severely
impacted the demand side of the market, leading to high vacancy rates, especially in the
prime and luxury property market segments.
b) While the property market in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja has been on a downtrend
and has seen a considerable drop in property values, the Lagos market has remained
resilient and has experienced marginal appreciation, especially in the mid-market segments.
c) States such as Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Bauchi, and Gombe which are affected by the
instability and insecurity caused by the Boko Haram insurgency in the North East and parts
of the North West have suffered significant erosions of property values due to negative
market perceptions and weak demand.
d) The displacement of inhabitants from the conflict zones in the North East has favourably
impacted property values, not just in neighbouring states (like Niger, Zamfara, Kaduna and
Jigawa), but in the South East and South South as indigenes relocate to these areas.
Market Analysis
e) Property values across all states in Nigeria are significantly
influenced by levels of economic activity, a vibrant formal
private sector (industry and services), and degree of
urbanisation.
f) The appreciation in property values is more substantial for
undeveloped land compared to developed properties.
This is due to the growing demand and activities of
property developers and investors taking up land as an
investment, or exploring opportunities to develop
projects for residential, commercial, industrial, hospitality
and retail use.
All the collected data is presented according to Nigeria's
geopolitical zones, and on a state-by-state basis in the
following pages.
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Naira (Millions) JIGAWABuildings Land
Market Analysis (North West)
22
Real estate market prices in the North West have stayed relatively flat. Kaduna’s prices continue tosuffer from protracted ethno-religious conflicts.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5
10
15
20
25
Naira (Millions)
2017e
SOKOTOBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5
10
15
20
25
Naira (Millions)
2017e
KADUNABuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2
4
6
8
10
Naira (Millions)
2017e
ZAMFARABuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5
10
15
20
25
Naira (Millions)
2017e
KEBBIBuildings Land
2017e
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Naira (Millions) KATSINABuildings Land
2017e
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Naira (Millions) BAUCHIBuildings Land
Market Analysis (North East)
23
The instability, destruction and human displacement caused by the Boko Haram conflict in theNorth East has led to a slump in real estate market prices.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2
4
6
8
10
Naira (Millions)
2017e
ADAMAWABuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2
4
6
8
10
Naira (Millions)
2017e
BORNOBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2
4
6
8
10
Naira (Millions)
2017e
TARABABuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5
10
15
20
25
Naira (Millions)
2017e
GOMBEBuildings Land
2017e
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Naira (Millions) YOBEBuildings Land
2017e
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
Market Analysis (South East)
24
Property prices in the South East market continue to experience steady appreciation buoyed byincreasing market participation.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5
10
15
20
25
Naira (Millions)
2017e
ABIABuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Naira (Millions)
2017e
EBONYIBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5
10
15
20
25
Naira (Millions)
2017e
ENUGUBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
10
20
30
40
50
Naira (Millions)
2017e
ANAMBRABuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5
10
15
20
25
Naira (Millions)
2017e
IMOBuildings Land
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Naira (Millions) KOGIBuildings Land
Market Analysis (North Central)
25
Prices are generally expected to remain flat in the North Central real estate market.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2
4
6
8
10
Naira (Millions)
2017e
PLATEAUBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2
4
6
8
10
Naira (Millions)
2017e
BENUEBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
10
20
30
40
50
Naira (Millions)
2017e
NIGERBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5
10
15
20
25
Naira (Millions)
2017e
KWARABuildings Land
2017e
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Naira (Millions) NASSARAWABuildings Land
2017e
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
Market Analysis (Lagos & Abuja)
26
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
25
50
75
100
125
Naira (Millions)
2017e
ABUJABuildings Land
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
25
50
75
100
125
Naira (Millions)
2017e
LAGOSBuildings Land
The Federal Capital Territory also has one of the highest property values in Nigeria and
one of the widest variances in value from one location to another within the same
state/territory.
Between 2011 and 2015, the average CAGR of property values within the FCT was 8%.
However, this figure varied significantly between the performance of residential
property, commercial property and undeveloped land.
The effects of the economic recession have adversely affected property values in the
FCT with high vacancy rates, especially in the prime real estate segment. This is
especially obvious in the poor year-on-year return for 2016 as evidenced by the data
below.
Lagos State has one of the highest property values in Nigeria and one of the
widest variances in value from one location to another within the same
state/territory.
Between 2011 and 2015, the Cumulative Average Growth Rate (CAGR) of
property values within Lagos ranged from as high as 39%, especially in
locations like Banana Island, and as low as 1% in places like Alagbado and
Festac.
The effects of the economic recession have affected the prime and luxury
segments of the property market. However, overall property values remained
robust, especially in the mid-market segments.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3
6
9
12
15
Naira (Millions) OSUNBuildings Land
Market Analysis (South West)
27
Property prices in the South West market have remained resilient in the face of economicchallenges. This trend is expected to continue in 2017.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5
10
15
20
25
Naira (Millions)
2017e
OYOBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3
6
9
12
15
Naira (Millions)
2017e
ONDOBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3
6
9
12
15
Naira (Millions)
2017e
EKITIBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5
10
15
20
25
Naira (Millions)
2017e
OGUNBuildings Land
2017e
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3
6
9
12
15
Naira (Millions) BAYELSABuildings Land
Market Analysis (South South)
28
Real estate market prices in the South-South will likely continue to experience moderate growthin 2017.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3
6
9
12
15
Naira (Millions)
2017e
EDOBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3
6
9
12
15
Naira (Millions)
2017e
AKWA IBOMBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1
2
3
4
5
Naira (Millions)
2017e
CROSS RIVERBuildings Land
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3
6
9
12
15
Naira (Millions)
2017e
DELTABuildings Land
2017e
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
25
50
75
100
120
Naira (Millions) RIVERSBuildings Land
2017e
2017 Nigerian Real Estate Industry Outlook
30
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improvement and growth, and is building a reputation for long-term, mutually
profitable client relationships.
“Enhance value through innovative solutions ”We work with clients to enhance value through innovative solutions
in strategic outsourcing, real estate, business performance,
decision-critical research, training and industry events.
“Be the dominant, home-grown global player in strategic outsourcing and professional services.Cromwell PSI wants to serve Africa’s most successful organisations
in the public and private sector landscape. We will grow from a
regional firm into a transcontinental brand that delivers a wide
range of professional services that support the operations, strategy,
growth and profitability of clients in the industries we serve.
Our Mission
Our Vision
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Our ‘VALUE’ Principles
About Us
Value InnovationWe always go further than others to create a
leap in value for our clients. Our business is
founded on an entrepreneurial spirit and
passion to explore new ideas and welcome
new opportunities in exceeding our clients’
expectations.
LeadershipThrough our thinking, character and actions, we set bold and positive
examples for others to follow. We always act with transparency and
integrity because our clients rely on us as a critical part of their success.
AgilityWe adapt and respond rapidly to changes
and challenges without losing momentum or
vision. This principle makes us strive to
exemplify a passionate and personal service
to our clients.
UniversalityWe are everywhere, and always leave a mark of quality on everything we
do. Our firm belief in diversity, collaboration and synergy gives us the
unique ability to solve a wide range of problems for clients in several
different industries.
EmpathyWe always put ourselves in our clients’ shoes. This quality allows us to
gain a deep understanding of their needs and challenges, so we can
deliver fitting results.
Our VALUE code governs the way we do business at Cromwell PSI, and defines the corepillars of our brand.
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What We Do
About Us
Real Estate Advisory Property Development
& Management
Facilities Management Urban & Infrastructure
Development
Professional Services Market Research Training & Capacity Development Industry Events
33
Real Estate Advisory
What We Do
About Us
Due Diligence & Audits We provide pre- and post-investment due diligence and audit services
including background checks, legal and compliance reviews, property analysis,
portfolio audits, data assessments, deal reviews and underwriting services
that facilitate informed investing, identify unrecognised opportunities and
reduce risks.
Transaction Advisory
We provide strategic support and advice during all phases of real estate
transactions for acquisitions, dispositions, design-build consultation, sale
leasebacks, lease renewal and negotiations, and corporate relocations.
Real EstateAdvisory
We support clients to realise value from real estate development projects
through market feasibility and demand analysis, highest and best use
evaluations, economic development and impact analysis, and real estate
development and implementation strategies.
Valuation & Investment Advisory
We provide independent real estate valuations, appraisals, reviews and
investment advisory for real estate funds, including international investors,
institutions, developers, and corporations. This service also covers feasibility
and pre-investment studies, portfolio analysis and lease advisory.
Commercial Real Estate Brokerage Services
We act on behalf of corporations, institutions, and individuals to acquire, sell
or lease commercial real estate. This service also provides access to an
expansive database of commercial real estate listings, including office,
industrial, retail, land, medical, institutional, investment and mixed-use.
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What We Do
About Us
Commercial, Industrial & Residential Property Development Support
We provide integrated property development services that enhance
investment returns through strategic advice, pre-purchase feasibility studies
and development analysis, market analysis, profit and cost assessments,
property law advice, design and construction support, project management,
risk and security advisory, project financing and joint venture partnerships.
Property Management Services
We manage residential and commercial property in all sectors covering retail,
office space, leisure and industrial assets.
We also provide asset management services, coordinate property
maintenance and repairs, handle tenant communication and correspondence,
rent collection, financial management and statutory compliance, lease
management, and insurance and risk management.
Property Development
& Management
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What We Do
About Us
Energy Design Planning and Management
We develop and execute strategies to reduce energy consumption and utilities
costs for residential and commercial facilities, and manage and monitor the energy
efficiency performance of the facilities.
Asset Replacement Planning
We develop and execute strategies to ensure current and future capital assets are
well maintained and a financial plan is in place to ensure their replacement. This
service ensures that no replacement needs and problems occur which could
interfere with operations of the facility.
Plant Services & Maintenance
We manage facility operations, construction, renovation, maintenance, repairs of
buildings, grounds, utilities and installed building systems.
Electrical & Mechanical Systems
We support the design, construction, maintenance and repair of electrical and
mechanical systems including HVAC systems, communications systems, power and
lighting systems, and building controls technology.
Fuel & Liquids Facilities Management
We develop and execute programs for the management and maintenance of fuel
facilities and installations that ensure regulation compliance and operational
efficiency.
Custodial, Janitorial & Cleaning Services
We provide commercial, retail, industrial, specialist and flexible contract custodial,
janitorial and cleaning support that meets the operational needs of the facilities we
oversee. We oversee regular inspection, care, cleaning, operations, repairs and
maintenance of the facility.
Facilities Management
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What We Do
About Us
Sewage & Waste Management
We provide a comprehensive range of domestic, commercial and industrial waste
management services covering CCTV surveys, blocked drains, sewer/drain
cleaning, flood response, waste disposal and recycling.
Procurement Consulting & Contract Management
We address all aspects of procurement, sourcing and contract management
operations to achieve savings and improved supplier relationships through
strategic sourcing, spend analysis and custom benchmarking.
Landscaping & Horticulture Services
We provide horticultural, arboriculture and landscaping support, including
landscaping design and construction, garden and grounds maintenance, tree
surveys, vegetation management and interior landscape projects.
Security/ Surveillance Planning & Management
We provide a broad range of security services that respond to demands for site
surveys, manned guarding, CViT and cash management, surveillance and CCTV
systems, and security consultancy.
Space Planning & Design
We assist clients with planning and design solutions for residential, commercial,
retail and industrial spaces that lead to minimal expenditure and disruption,
optimal space use and density.
Public Buildings and Secured Facilities Management
We provide facilities management services for government-owned real estate
assets, including public buildings, public shared spaces, and critical and secure
facilities like courts, airports, utilities, prisons and banks.
Facilities Management
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What We Do
About Us
Urban Housing Development, Cities & Mega Projects
We provide a comprehensive range of services across all aspects of the urban
planning and development process, including master planning, project visioning,
urban design strategies, land capability studies, community needs assessments and
independent reviews for all sizes of urban renewal and greenfield development
projects.
Social Infrastructure Development Support Services
We provide design, project management, construction and procurement support
for social infrastructure development projects, including the health, education,
housing, civic and utilities, corrections and justice sectors.
Transportation Systems Development
We provide design, ground engineering, environmental and construction services
support for transportation infrastructure development and rehabilitation, including
railways, roads, mass transit, marine transport and ports, and airports.
Policy, Strategy & Social Advocacy
We formulate and develop plans, policies and strategies that guide and address
the growth, development and management of economic, urban form and social
infrastructure issues.
Asset Replacement & Sunk Fund Management
We assist governments and infrastructure authorities to develop strategies and
manage resources allocated to address asset management and replacement issues
with a view to optimising the life of existing assets and accurately planning for
their replacement if required in future years.
Urban & Infrastructure
Development
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What We Do
About Us
Management Consulting & General Business Advisory
We provide consulting services that focus on the most critical issues and
opportunities facing businesses, especially with strategy, marketing, organization,
operations, technology, transformation, mergers & acquisitions and sustainability
across all industries.
Accounting, Audit & Assurance Services
We provide key audit and assurance services, including statutory and non-
statutory audits, internal audits, corporate reporting, IFRS reporting, regulatory
compliance, capital markets, corporate treasury solutions, accounting advisory,
actuarial insurance, IT risk assurance, and governance and risk assurance.
Tax, Legal & Compliance Support
We support client organisations with legal, compliance and tax services around
local and international tax, general legal service, mergers & acquisitions, regulatory
compliance, tax reporting & strategy, tax controversy and dispute resolution, tax
policy & administration, and transfer pricing.
Human ResourcesSupport
Provide a broad spectrum of HR solutions that take care of workplace
investigations, recruitment, workforce planning, compensation, performance
issues, HR transformations, regulatory compliance, employee administration and
other HR needs.
Information Technology & Enterprise Solutions
We help clients become high-performance businesses by maximizing the value of
technology through end-to-end enterprise solutions, software, databases,
analytics, mobility and cloud infrastructure that enable the storage, retrieval,
analysis, presentation and dissemination of mission-critical data.
Professional Services
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What We Do
About Us
Market & Industry Research Reports
We publish reports with important statistical and analytical information on
consumer markets, commercial industries, key economic sectors, performance
profiles and outlooks, current and future trends, competitor insights, and critical
international developments relevant to the market. Our on-demand and scheduled
report releases feature country and regional reports, industry profiles and
outlooks, consumer market reports, and indexes.
Custom Research & Surveys
We assist organisations with customised and cost-effective research and survey
projects for market entry, business development, competitive insight, and strategic
planning purposes.
Market Intelligence Databases
We provide online subscription database access to market and industry-related
data, statistics, analyses, reports and surveys from global, regional, country and
company perspectives that provide strategic insights to help clients achieve their
key business objectives.
Market Research
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What We Do
About Us
Competency Management
Our extensive competency management frameworks allow companies to more
rapidly and efficiently assure the competency of every personnel by identifying
skill and knowledge gaps that may be limiting performance and compliance.
Performance Consulting
We work with companies to analyse operations and identify opportunities for
improving operational efficiency and implement programs designed to improve
personnel performance. By combining business, technical, and learning expertise,
we help our clients understand how to achieve sustainable competency
management to improve operations and profits.
Executive Training Programs
We offer a wide variety of scheduled and bespoke executive training programs that
cover functional business areas – Finance & Accounting, Human Resources,
Information Technology, Facilities Management – management, leadership and
organizational development, and other courses that help business professionals
advance their careers, and support organisations to grow and improve
performance.
Workforce Development Programs
Our workforce Development programs develop effective, competent technical
professionals for our clients in the shortest time possible. We lean on our deep
industry experience and competency building expertise of our partners to provide
a program tailored to our clients’ specific challenges and business needs. Our
programs typically include workforce planning, capability testing, competency
assessment, gap analysis, career ladders, and instructor-led training.
Training & Capacity Development
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What We Do
About Us
Industry Events –Summits, Conferences, Retreats & Exhibitions
We organise and host strategic industry summits, conferences, retreats and
exhibitions that promote interaction, collaborations and partnerships between key
influencers, major industry players, and governments on country, regional and
global levels.
These events are held around the world and while some are open to all, others are
exclusive, member-only gatherings.
A selection of these industry-leading conferences and events is periodically
released on the Cromwell PSI website.Industry Events
Cromwell Professional Services InternationalRC 1359897
Strategic Outsourcing -- Real Estate -- Professional Services -- Market Research –
Training & Events
Address: Plot H3, No. 10 Obafemi Awolowo Way, CBD,
Alausa, Ikeja, Lagos
Phone: +234 905 555 6698 – +234 807 504 8968
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.cromwellpsi.com
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AppendicesNote: The appendices to this report include the comprehensive data tables from our national survey of property trends, and an analysis of the real estate market on a state-by-state basis.
If you are interested in receiving a copy of the full report, please send us an email at [email protected]
Thank you.