nigeria on the brink of a banana republic_balkanization_arise.doc

7/27/2019 Nigeria on the brink of a banana republic_Balkanization_Arise.doc

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Nigeria On

The Brink Of

A BananaRepublic,

Balkanization?By

Don Okereke(Security Analyst, Consultant)

Email: [email protected]

Twitter: @ donokereke

Telephone: +2347080008285


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Caveat:

This treatise is not a swipe at any individual, section of the country or the present

administration; it is a critical reappraisal of the Nigerian federation vis-a-vis recurren

upshots.

To refresh our memories, Banana republic is a loosely used term which denotes

politically unstable, dependent country ruled by a small coterie of corrupt cabals with a

accompanying impoverished working class.

Latent and overt goings-on in our polity reinforces the well-known dictum that all is no

well with the self-acclaimed giant of Africa. It is no news that people are sporadicall

hacked to death and the perpetrators waltz scot-free. There is a resounding rhythm o

wanton killings, kidnappings, impunity, brinkmanship, irredentism, desperation, raw us

of power in our landscape. A situation where five state governors were pelted for havin

he audacity to visit their embattled colleague is surely a bad omen. Envision th

mplications if the gung-ho security officers attached to these governors reciprocated th

gesture of the masterminds of this rascality.

Years ago, a United States think tank (not the US government), hinted that Nigeria ma

be balkanized by 2015. A fresh report for the United States War College titled Niger

unity in the balance warns Nigerias leaders of the potential for another civil wa

erupting as a result of ongoing divisive trends in the country. According to the repor

parochial interests created by religious, cultural, ethnic, economic, regional an

political secessionist tendencies are endemic in Nigeria. The foregoing concurs wit

he title of John Campbell, the former United States ambassadors book titled Nigeri

Dancing on the brink. A study by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) ranke

Nigeria as the worst country for a child to be born in. Nigeria consistently occupies a

gnoble status in Transparency Internationals Corruption Index. Like an ostrich, w

repeatedly shrug off these assertions or warnings; we claim they are the handicraft o

our phantom enemies. Any honest and discerning Nigerian will not have qualms wit

hese warnings, predictions. An appreciable advantage of a research or intellectua

reasoning generally is that it employs parameters such as tests, observations before

conclusion is inferred. Rather than lampoon our imaginary enemies, have we cared t

explore the yardstick they used in arriving at their conclusion? Interestingly, we flaunt

when a particular report says Nigeria is the fastest growing economy in Africa.


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Granted many countries transited similar trajectories in their quest for nationhood but

a time they told themselves the gospel truth and took drastic measures to confront the

problems head-on. Is it not high time we told ourselves the home truth? In Englan

hereditary Lords and barons wielded so much power in those days such that n

mportant decision is made without their consent. Not anymore. New York was once

notorious Mafiosi haven with the likes of Al Capon living larger-than-life until he wa

caged. After about 300 years of political marriage, the constituent nations (England

Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland) that people the United Kingdom, re-negotiate

he terms of their existence with a principle of Devolution giving more powers an

autonomy to the constituent nations. This arrangement gave birth to a Welsh Assembly

Welsh police, Scottish Parliament, Scottish Police and so on and so forth. Th

arrangement notwithstanding, the Scots are still clamoring to be completel

ndependent.

t is a different story in Nigeria. Our so-called leaders dont want us to discuss th

problems with Nigeria. They want all of us to be praise-singers. One is dubbed a

opposition, a pessimist or a doomsday prophet if one offers some constructiv

criticism. Issues that led to the first military coup and subsequently the 1967-1970 Civ

war in Nigeria remain up in the air. Instead of using the rare opportunity presented b

he forthcoming date for the centennial amalgamation of Southern and Norther

protectorates of Nigeria for serious sober introspection, our politicians gad-about wit

arrangements for a grandiose carnival.

One of the most popular clichs bandied about in Nigeria is One Nigeria. In reality,

appears this dream is far-fetched. Please lets eschew sentiments as we ponder, answe

his question and brainstorm viable solutions.

Can we in all honesty say we are truly One Nigeria? Can we say the Nigerian Natio

s more cohesive after nearly one hundred years of a forceful amalgamation for th

aggrandizement of our colonial masters? Are we One Nigeria where a while agoabout 10 Ibadan (Yoruba) traders that went to Bornu to transact business were hacked t

death? Are we truly One Nigeria where 8 out every 10 Igbos I know that were bor

and bred or have resided in some Northern states for decades have relocated to th

South courtesy of the Boko Haram onslaught? Are we One Nigeria where the fir

question a prospective tenant is asked when he/she goes to rent a house in some parts o

Nigeria is, where are you from? His response determines whether or not th

apartment/office space will be rented to him or not. Are we One Nigeria where


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prospective undergraduate from southern Nigeria who sits for UTME (Universities an

Tertiary Matriculation Examination), scores say 250 is not admitted into a university bu

his counterpart from the north who scores 150 is admitted to study medicine? The sam

principle (a bastardized quota system that exalts mediocrity) applies to admission to ou

so-called Unity Secondary Schools and employment. Are we One Nigeria where

Nigerian (Yoruba from Oyo state) is not allowed to work in Abia state Civil Service an

vice versa? Is the rest of Nigeria on the same page with a former governor, a servin

senator who unblushingly opines that any girl that protrudes breasts and a pubic hair

matured and can be married off even if the girl is just 9 years old? With the persisten

cries of marginalization, do we all have a sense of belonging as Nigerians? Is ever

Nigerian especially the minorities as Nigerian as other Nigerians? A typical America

will proudly tell you he/she is an AMERICAN; it is only when you probe further th

he will tell you the state he is from. Do we see ourselves as a Nigerian first before ou

various tribes? Are we truly One Nigeria where some Hausa/Fulani whose thirgenerations were born and bred in Jos (Plateau state) are still seen as settlers, non

ndigenes? Can a Hausa man, whose parents and himself were born and bred in Lago

state aspire to be the governor of Lagos state in the next coming elections in 2015? Ar

we One Nigeria where the Lagos state government deported, repatriated, forcefull

relocated some south easterners to Onitsha recently? Why dump all of them at Onitsh

by 2A.M, are all the deportees from Onitsha? Was there a prior understandin

arrangement, agreement with the families of these folks or Anambra state governmenbefore this action was taken? If the Lagos state government claims these folks ar

beggars or lack the wherewithal to return to where they originally came from,

dumping them at Onitsha the solution to the problem? Given that there are also Yorub

destitute in other parts of Nigeria, how will Lagosians or Yorubas feel if their folk

residing in other parts of Nigeria are hounded home for no justifiable reason? If th

action of the Lagos state government does not smack of xenophobia, how many Yorub

destitute from Ogun state, Oyo state et al have been deported to their original abodesThis clannish, jingoistic action and body language depicts gross insensitivity on the pa

of our leaders and invariably fans the embers of disunity. There are destitute, beggar

everywhere- New York, London, France etc. If a UK citizen from say Birmingham

England) is found begging in Aberdeen (Scotland), the authorities will rathe

rehabilitate that citizen than repatriate him to Birmingham.

ssues that led to the first military coup and subsequently the 1967-1970 Civil war i

Nigeria remain up in the air. Instead of using the rare opportunity presented by th


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forthcoming date for the centennial amalgamation of Southern and Norther

protectorates of Nigeria for serious sober introspection and no-holds-barred politic

restructuring, our politicians gad-about with arrangements for a grandiose carnival.

Let us mull over the succeeding concomitant topical events before making inferences.

will help if ethnic jingoism and political sentiments does not becloud our soun

udgement.

1. A Human Right Watch report puts the death toll sequel to the Boko Haram

onslaught in the last three years at about 3,000. As I write, news filtered in th

about 20 civilians were hacked to death in Bornu supposedly by Boko Haram. It

the same story in Plateau state with the recurring Fulani herdsmen skirmishes wit

host communities. On December 10, 2012, Attorney General of the Federation

Mr. Mohammed Adoke opined that 7,195 cases of extra-judicial killings wer

recorded in the last four years in Nigeria, with 2,000 of the victims beindetainees. Do the math and deduce the number of people that are sent to an earl

grave in a country apparently not enmeshed in a civil war.

2. Alarming proliferation of weapons, firearms: A while ago, the Director General o

the National Task Force on Illegal importation of Light Weapons and Small Arm

one Osita Osakwe made a stunning revelation that, The Governors use theprivate jets to build up arms ahead of the coming 2015 elections. In a sane clim

this is a serious allegation and the man would have been invited to substantiate h

assertion. With enormous porous borders (a conservative guesstimate from

Nigerias Immigration Service puts the number of illegal entry points to Nigeria t

about 1,500), and active connivance of inept, corrupt custom officials, does on

really need a private jet to ferry arms into Nigeria?

3. Premium Times recently quoted the Bayelsa State governor- Mr. Seriake Dickso

as saying, Niger Delta militants steal crude Oil to buy arms, recruit members

Mr. Dickson said this in Yenegoa when he received the Flag Officer Commandin

the Central Naval Command. We are made to believe the so-called amnest

programme entailed disarmament? Are those blokes going the reverse direction?


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4. Lately Asari Dokubo addressed a Press conference and opined that Nigeria wi

break up if President Jonathan does not get a second term. He arrogantly dare

Nigerias security agencies to arrest him if they could. Kingsley kuku, a Speci

Adviser to President Jonathan concurs with him. Asari extenuated his remark o

the premise that some Northern blokes made similar statements and got away wit

it. Such predilections are knock-on effects of setting bad precedents. Can w

safely infer that Nigeria has swiveled to the point where somebody brazenly hack

another to death and justifies, extenuates his dastardly act because some othe

bloke did the same thing and got away with it? In a sane ambiance, the law takes

course when an infringement or a crime is committed; the Police do not nee

clearance from the President, governor to perform its statutory vocation.

5. Alarming proliferation of Vigilantes/ethnic militias/Cult groups. Zamfara state said to be tinkering with the idea of arming vigilantes to stem the tide of terrorism

and insurgency. The same folks that kicked against State Police. What an irony

Recently Ombatse Cult reportedly hacked about 90 Police and SSS officials t

death. We are not aware suspects have been arrested let alone prosecuted. Rathe

than work round the clock to fish out and prosecute masterminds of this dastardl

act, the DG of the State Security Service (SSS) Mr. Ita Ekpenyong told us the

have forgiven Ombatse Cult for killing their officers on national assignment. Whan ingenious way of boosting the morale of other serving personnels in its fold

Sometime in April, Niger Delta militants basking in the euphoria of a Presidentia

Amnesty ambushed and killed about 12 Police officers. In the South East, Bakas

Boys and MASSOB hold sway while the OPC run things in the South West.

6. Our politicians and so-called statesmen are busy fanning the embers of ethn

jingoism and disunity with their rabble-rousing statements. Is it really axiomat

that wisdom and decorum comes with old age? I cringe each time I hea

statements ascribed to elderly and apparently educated, knowledgeable men lik

Edwin Clarke, Prof. Ango Abdullahi or the Northern Elders Forum. If these me

make such statements, what do they expect from youths who have a lot of poten

adrenaline in them? Can these old men tot rifles if war erupts in Nigeria?


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7. Wanton killings have become the order of the day. There is no gainsaying the fa

that life expectancy is increasingly shrinking and getting cheaper in Nigeria

Recent statistics put the life expectancy in Nigeria at 51.9 years. People giv

testimonies and sing praises when they sleep and wake up or travel from Point A

to B safely. One is not insinuating it is wrong to render testimonies. Born i

Adamawa state, a place I still have a strong affinity for, I recall we used to slee

under dogonyaro trees from dusk to dawn. I am not sure any sane person can tr

that now. Jos (Plateau state) arguably passed for the most peaceful state in Niger

then but has metamorphosed into a killing field. Kidnapping has become a dail

phenomenon; school children, octogenarians are not spared.

8. It has become a clich in Nigeria that the recent Nigeria Governors Forum

election was a show of shame. A video shows an election took place; the electiowas won and lost. Or was the NGF election video doctored? Like they say, i

Nigeria, the more you look, the less you see. Rather than apologize to Nigerian

these geezers unblushing gad-about spewing bunkum. Can we trust the judgmen

of our so-called Excellencies? If 36 fully grown men, some of them in their sixtie

or seventies cannot comport themselves, what do they expect from the generalit

of Nigerians? Is this a harbinger of things to come in 2015?

As if this was not enough, another show of shame was replicated recently by som

members of the Rivers State House of Assembly. The Constitution is explicit o

what it takes to impeach a Speaker, Governor etc. The last time I checked, a two

third majority is the benchmark. I was wondering if what transpired in the River

State House of Assembly was some sort of Nollywood Home Movie. The video o

this infamy depicts a grown man using a mace to club his colleague to almost

state of stupor in the full glare and supervision of a Police officer. Are thes

blokes responsible and honourable as they address themselves and prefer to b

addressed? How will these men explain their actions to their kids? The River

State Houses of Assembly members make the Ibadan branch of NURTW

(National Union of Road Transport Workers) look like saints. An investigation ha

been ordered; nothing will come out of it after all it is a family affair.


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9. Corruption, profligacy and kleptocracy have assumed an unprecedente

dimension. It is no longer in millions; it is a fad now to rub it in, in multiples o

billions. Our present day politicians and ogas-at-the-top make Umaru Dikko loo

like mother Theresa. A former boss of Police Pension Fund reportedly embezzle

nearly N30billion and was handed a slap-on-the-wrist sentence. Where the offic

of UKs Prime Minister does not have a single Presidential Jet attached to it (no

that they cannot afford it), Aso Rock is said to have about ten Presidential Jets i

its kitty. Where President Obama earns about $400,000 annually, an averag

Senator in Nigeria in addition to salaries, and other sundry allowances, goes hom

with about N48million per quarter in the guise of a constituency allowance (abou

$1.7million dollars per annum). Let us not even go near the largesse that th

Nigerian President is entitled to. Each governor in Nigeria is entitled to N6billio

naira as a security vote which they dont owe anybody any explanation as t

how the money is expended. It is now the in-thing for our governors to globetrowith private jets appropriated with state funds. A certain state governor had to hir

a chopper to fly from Benin to Anambra state, a journey of less than an hour b

road. Why wont Nigerian politicians kill to occupy a political position?

10. Skyrocketing unemployment rate: Those in the know like former presiden

Obasanjo tells us this phenomenon is a time-bomb. We do not need a clairvoyanto drive home the point. A lot of the ills in our society-wanton kidnapping, arme

robbery and even terrorism/insurgency can be attributed to this factor.

11. Growing trend in individuals wittingly and unwittingly usurping th

responsibilities of the state. An average Nigerian or community provides his/it

own security (private guards, vigilantes, and militias), their own electricit

(generators), and potable water (boreholes), construct roads and medical centre

With the proliferation of primary, secondary schools and universities, som

individuals in Nigeria can comfortably refer to themselves as sovereig

governments akin to the arrangement between Italy and the Vatican.

12. Plausible scenarios come 2015: From the foregoing analysis, my inference

that Nigeria is pregnant with unpredictable possibilities prior to and aftermath o


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the 2015 Presidential elections. Given that President Jonathan does not seem t

enjoy the massive goodwill and empathy of Nigerians that garnered him again

all odds, the coveted seat he presently occupies, envisage where he bulldozes h

way and wins the 2015 presidential election by brazen foul play and the oppositio

goes the way of the splinter faction of the NGF led by Jonah Jang. Also envisio

where a northerner wrestles power through providence and/or some shrew

political engineering from the incumbent, a Niger-Deltan and the multi-billio

dollars ati Naira Crude Oil Protection Contract awarded to the ex-militants is no

renewed, they will likely recant the amnesty deal, largesse and go back to th

creeks. As the much touted amnesty program winds up by 2015, these bloke

will no longer enjoy the national cake as they are currently doing. Out o

desperation, boredom buoyed by a plethora of sophisticated arms, ammunitions i

the kitty of these celebrity nouveau-riche ex-militants, there is no gainsaying the

have the wherewithal to bring Nigeria to its knees if they so wish. Also donforget in a jiffy that the MASSOB, OPC et al are watching unfolding events wit

keen interest.

Conclusion:

The foregoing are tell-tale signs of a country on the brink of balkanization. Ou

politicians and leaders at all levels must put Nigeria first before their parochi

personal aggrandizements and tribal sentiments. The Arab Spring, particularl

the current situation in Egypt should be a wake-up call, an eye-opener to them

Our leaders must not get carried away by the pliant nature of Nigerians; the elast

limit has been over-stretched. They must not bask on the euphoria of Nigerias 1

years of uninterrupted democracy. If concerted and urgent steps are not taken t

stem the aforementioned acerbic divisive tides sweeping across Nigeria, there

no gainsaying the fact that a prediction of Nigerias balkanization may after all bafait accompli.

All hope is not lost; Nigeria can avert this ugly consistent slant towards a faile

state with a serious political restructuring skewed towards regionalism or tru

federalism with less political power in the centre. There is likelihood of abus

when so much political power is concentrated in one particular office or in th

hands of an individual. A situation where a governor of a state and the chie


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security officer of that state, does not have control over the police officers in hi

domain calls for serious concern.

There is no doubt Nigeria has got potentials. There is no doubt our sheer size put

us at an advantage on the bargaining table especially among the committee o

nations but we really need to appreciate the home truth and take drastic measure

to fix the mess in our sphere. It is my considered opinion that a political systemskewed towards regionalism, true federalism or confederalism (a weak centre

will be ideal for this country. We can take a cue from UKs Principle/System o

DEVOLUTION which ascribes some level of autonomy to the constituent unit

giving rise to a Welsh Assembly, Welsh Police, Scottish Parliament, Scottis

Police, Scottish Health Service etc.

Perhaps if our national assembly members and other politicians generally ar

made to work on part time basis with meagre largesse, it will weed out those whsee political positions as an avenue to amass wealth and go about it with a do-or

die mentality.

What is your take, from the deepest recesses of your mind, do you think Nigeria

truly One Nigeria yet or are we still evolving? Is Nigeria truly one country or

mishmash of countries, individuals at dissimilar strata, pyramid of consciousnes

and civilization forced to exist as one? Are we ever going to be truly On

Nigeria? Are we living a lie? What do you think is the solution to this quagmire

Will Nigeria survive the forthcoming 2015 election hysteria and miasma? Th

alarm bells are ringing!!! Time will tell.

God bless Nigeria and Nigerians.

Don Okereke(Security Analyst, Consultant)

Email: [email protected]: @ donokereke

Telephone: +2347080008285

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