nielsen spring 2014 report...valentines day 2014: 1 week data to feb 16.14 v 1 week data to feb...

KEY OCCASIONS - IRELAND

NIELSEN SPRING 2014 REPORT

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KEY OCCASIONS

EVENT DATE

Pancake Tuesday Tuesday 4th March 2014

Mother’s Day Sunday 30th March 2014

Easter Sunday 20th April 2014

Valentines Day Friday 14th February 2014

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NIELSEN SPRING REVIEW SOURCING

DATA SOURCING Total Scantrack ROI (Mults / Grps / Forecourts) + Discounters * - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters Total Store Read is the complete store read for Multiple retailers, and includes categories such as Deli, Produce, Fresh Meat and Poultry, In store bakery, Newsagency, Horticulture, Mobile, & Durables. (All items with a *)

% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only

TIME PERIODS Valentines Day 2013: 1 week data to FEB 17.13 Valentines Day 2014: 1 week data to FEB 16.14 V 1 week data to FEB 09.14 Pancake Tuesday 2013: 1 week data to FEB 17.13 Pancake Tuesday 2014: 1 week data to MAR 09.14 V 1 week data to MAR 02.14 Mothers Day 2013: 1 week data to MAR 10.13 Mothers Day 2014: 1 week data to MAR 30.14 V 1 week data to MAR 23.14 Easter 2013: 1 week data to MAR 31.13 Easter 2014: 1 week data to APR 20.14 V 1 week data to APR 13.14 NB: The data included in this presentation is a view of the market at a specific point in time at a total market level and does not take promotional activity into consideration.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Valentines Day • Discounters & Forecourts perform well

for Valentines as overall sales for Valentines increase slightly

• We are still treating our loved ones to the typical gifting option for Valentines day but have moved to cheaper alternatives.

Pancake Tuesday • Pancake Tuesday categories decline yoy

with the exception of the Pancake fillings • People opt for convenience as pre-made

mix performs against cooking from scratch options

• Traditional pancake fillings are key

Mother’s Day • Sweet treats perform well, but mothers

day does not impact on grocery or alcohol overall

• Flowers, chocolates, champagne and cream liquor all perform well for Mother’s Day

• Home baking performs better than home cooking

Easter • Easter eggs and novelty increase year on

year • Weather impacts retail sales for Easter

week • Traditional Easter Sunday lamb still

performing well

Valentine’s Day 2015 - Saturday, February 14th Pancake Day 2015 - Tuesday, February 17th

Mother’s Day 2015 - Sunday, March 15th Easter 2015 - Sunday, April 5th

(Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters) / (* - Total Store Read – Multiples ROI + Discounters

All Fresh / chilled products) / (% of volume sold on promotion – Multiples ROI only)

VALENTINES DAY 2014

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KEY TAKE OUT’S

Impact on Sales for Valentines Week 2014 • Value increasing slightly week on week and year on year, and Units are increasing week on

week. Romance • We are still treating our loved ones to the typical gifting option for Valentines day but have

moved to cheaper alternatives;

• Standard flowers and chocolates instead of roses. Cooking • While the weather on Valentines was “slightly stormy”, the data suggests that consumers

opted to stay in and create a home cooked meal. With meat, vegetables and desserts all increasing week on week.

• We opted to drink more bottles of wine and less sparkling year on year with the preference being Chilean wine.

• People made the most of Valentines falling on the weekend as cooked breakfast items increased significantly week on week and year on year.

Valentines Day 2014 fell on a Friday!



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VALENTINES WEEK Forecourts and discounters win value share of trade for Valentines 2014

SOURCE: NIELSEN STRATEGIC PLANNER - Total Scantrack ROI + Discounters + Dunnes + Spec Off Lic

59.5 59.0 55.9

15.6 16.3 19.6

15.0 14.9 14.2

8.8 8.5 8.9

1.2 1.3 1.4

Valentine Week 2012 Valentine Week 2013 Valentine Week 2014

Value Share of Trade

MULTIPLES + DUNNES DISCOUNTERS ROI SYMBOL GROUPSFORECOURTS ROI SPEC OFF ROI

49.6 44.2 39.3

20.3 21.9

20.9

11.3 14.2 18.1

12.2 12.8 14.1

6.7 7.0 7.6

Valentine Week 2012 Valentine Week 2013 Valentine Week 2014

Volume Share of Trade

MULTIPLES + DUNNES SYMBOL GROUPS DISCOUNTERS ROI

SPEC OFF ROI FORECOURTS ROI

Discounters ROI value share of Trade for the

latest MAT is 18.3%

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ROMANCE ISN’T DEAD…. Sales for 2014 suggest we are still treating our loved ones on Valentines Day! Valentines Week

2014 V’s 2013 % Chg

Valentines Week V’s Previous Week % Chg

Flowers, Roses*

Assortments

Flowers, All Other*

Greetings cards*

Champagne

Sparkling wines

Candles*

-14.6%

+17.9%

+10.2%

+9.8%

+0.6%

-0.6%

+119.1%

+1,202.1%

+215.6%

+205.1%

+140.1%

+130.8%

125.0%

+97.7%

Hangover remedies

Condoms/lubricants

Skincare/moisturising care

Hair styling aids

Depilatory creams

-21.0%

+23.7%

+34.6%

-9.1%

-9.4%

+234.3%

+20.9%

+20.4%

+3.9%

+3.7%

Gifts…

Personal Care



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COOKING AT HOME…. Valentines week shows an increase in sales of products to make an easy, home cooked (or at least home prepared!) meal…but some products failed to grow YOY Valentine’s Week

2014 V’s 2013 % Chg Valentines Week

V’s Previous Week % Chg

Soup pouch Olives* Pate*

+1.6% -14.7% +6.6%

+13.5% +6.5% +5.1%

Chilled meat* Chilled packaged fish* Chilled ready to eat fish/ seafood*

+12.9% -18.5% -18.3%

+40.2% +20.1% +7.0%

Total vegetables* Top performing for valentines; Beans* Brussels sprouts* Carrots* Asparagus*

-14.9%

-0.2% +29.7% -6.7% +4.7%

+3.8%

+25.8% +14.8% +11.9% +8.7%

Dry sauces/ casserole mix Chilled pasta sauce Herbs

+2.9% +13.2% -4.9%

+3.1% +3.1% +2.7%

Appetiser…

Meat…

Vegetables…

A bit of flavour…



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Valentines Week 2014 V’s 2013 % Chg

Valentines Week V’s Previous Week % Chg

Chilled desserts Chocolate spreads Cream (double)* Defined frozen desserts

-20.2% -55.1% -0.1% +4.1%

+26.7% +26.2% + 23.1% +15.1%

THERE WAS STILL ROOM FOR DESSERT …

Buy something sweet…

Powdered baking products Baking decorations (edible)* Solid baking products Baking decorations (non-edible)

-59.9% -2.8% +7.7%

+13.2%

+32.6% +29.3% +22.1% +5.7%

Or make it yourself…



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WHAT WE DRANK…..

Valentines week 2013 vs. Valentines week 2014 (Val % chg)

Chile & France account for over 35% of value of total wine sales during Valentines week 2014.

+43.6% yoy

+16.0 yoy

Valentines week 2013 vs. Valentines week 2014 (Val % chg)

Sparkling wine is flat YOY in value terms, but the top selling varietals for Valentines week were….

CAVA +134.4%

PROSECCO +45.9%

We drank more wine this Valentines day with Chilean Wine the clear favourite and Sparkling remaining flat yoy.

Total Alcohol %VOD

increased by 5% in 2014

Total Wine %VOD

increased by 20% in 2014



43.5 42.0

29.8 32.1

9.8 10.0 9.2 9.0 6.0 5.2

1.6 1.5

2013 2014LARGER & NABLAB TOTAL WINE SPIRITS

CIDER & PERRY STOUT & ALE SPARKLING WINES

CHAMPAGNE

-1.4

2.3

0.2

-0.2

-0.8

-0.1 -0.0

Unit % Share / Share Change

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Valentines Week

2014 V’s 2013 % Chg

Valentines Week

V’s Previous Week % Chg

Deli Butcher Rashers * +37.1% +64.8%

Grapefruit* +43.9% +40.1%

Strawberries* -0.3% +13.9%

Black/White Pudding +9.7% +8.4%

Pre-packed sausages +16.4% +6.6%

Instant/ground coffee +6.3% +5.3%

Pre-packed bacon -2.4% +3.9%

BREAKFAST IN BED Valentines week 2014 saw an increase of sales in breakfast products, especially in the convenience sector…

Breakfast treats…

Convenience shopping at forecourts…

Pre Packed Sausages +12.1% +9.6%

Pre Packed Bacon +5.7% +4.6%

Morning Goods -21.1% +3.5%



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SO WHAT….

• Remember Valentines 2015 will be a Saturday. This gives people the opportunity to celebrate it over the weekend, giving them more time for preparation.

• Consumers are still willing to spend money on Valentines Day gifting, but the celebrations itself is as important;

• cooking a meal

• sharing a bottle of wine

• Valentines Day is still very stereotypical, with flowers and chocolates performing strongly. Ease and convenience are key for the consumer.

PANCAKE TUESDAY 2014

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Pancake Week 2014 V’s 2013 % chg.

Pancake Week V’s Previous Week % chg.

PRE MADE MIX

Total Pancake Mix -2.5% +94.49

Liquid Pancake Mix -9.9% +340.7%

Powdered Pancake Mix -2.2% +86.6%

COOK FROM SCRATCH

Flour -2.8% +24.5%

Eggs -0.1% +6.3%

Milk +6.0% +1.6%

PANCAKE TUESDAY Convenience is key; pre-mix out performs cooking from scratch but Pancake Tuesday categories decline yoy.

Pancakes….

Pancake Filling…..

Pancake Week 2014 V’s 2013 % chg.

Pancake Week V’s Previous Week %

chg.

Chocolate Spread +10.7% +40.8%

Fresh Lemons & Limes* +6.6% +21.3%

Honey +5.2% +15.4%

Jam +3.4% +11.1%

Sugar -4.0% +3.1%

Total Fresh Berries* +28.3% +1.8%

Blackberries / Raspberries / Strawberries / Blueberries

Liquid Pancake Mix hold 4% of value sales of

Total Pancake Mix



MOTHER’S DAY 2014

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Sweet treats perform well, but mothers day does not impact on grocery or alcohol overall

-2.2 -2.9

-5.1

2.4

-1.3 -1.5

Confectionary Grocery Alcohol

Mothers Days wk 2014 vs. Mothers Day wk 2013 % chg.

Mothers Days wk 2014 vs. previous wk % chg.

Total Flowers*

Mothers Days wk. 2014 vs. Mothers Day

wk. 2013 % chg.

Mothers Days wk. 2014 vs. previous

wk. % chg.

-9.2% +346.7%

Assortments -1.5% +176.0%

Top 3 winning categories for week of Mothers Day 2014 & 2013…

MOTHERS DAY

Home baking more than home cooking?

Baking Products (Powdered/liquid/ solid)

2014 vs. 2013

Mothers days wk. vs

previous

Cake decorations:

-2.9% +12.1%

-1.0% +4.6%

Chilled RW Meat*: -23.5% +2.1%

Potatoes*: -35.1% +0.7%

Onions*: -12.4% +0.1%



2014 2014 V’s 2013 % Chg Mothers Day Wk V’s Previous Wk % Chg

2013 2013 V’s 2012 % Chg Mothers Day Wk V’s Previous Wk % Chg

Champagne -28.9% +36.1% Cream Liqueurs -32.0% +46.6%

Sparkling Wine -6.8% +21.8% Gin +28.3% +43.5%

Cream Liqueurs -31.8% +20.2% Champagne -6.3% +43.0%

EASTER 2014

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KEY TAKE OUT’S Impact on Sales Easter Week 2014

Confectionary • Total confectionary declining year on year for Easter 2014. Easter eggs show a

slight value increase but volume continues to decline. • Novelty increasing significantly year on year. Good Friday • Fish is declining year on year, but alcohol has increased as well as snacks such as

crisps and dips. Weather • Easter weekend was on average 6Oc hotter in 2014 than 2013, and as a result BBQ

products increased by 779%.

Easter Sunday • Lamb with mint sauce, and turkey with cranberry sauce are the key winner for the

Easter Sunday roast

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-5.1

9.6

-8.0

4.1

Easter Week2014 V 2013

% Chg

Easter WeekV Previous

Week


% Chg


Week

Value Volume

TOTAL CONFECTIONERY

-12.8

75.7

-13.9

53.0

Easter Week2014 V 2013 %

Chg

Easter Week VPrevious Week

Easter Week2014 V 2013 %

Chg

Easter Week VPrevious Week

Value Volume

TOTAL PRALINES

EASTER CONFECTIONARY

Total Confectionary in decline for the week of Easter 2014 v’s 2013, -5.1% in

value. With volume declining at a faster rate.

Total Confectionary has increased week

on week 2014, with an increase of +9.6% value for Easter Week.

Total Pralines in decline for the week of Easter 2014 v’s 2013, -12.8% in value. With volume declining at a faster rate.

But significantly increases for Easter

Week v’s the previous week 2014 with value growth of +75.7%



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1.9

176.4

-1.8

123.5


% Chg


Week


% Chg


Week

Value Volume

TOTAL EASTER EGGS

18.5

200.4

25.1

187.1


% Chg


Week


% Chg


Week

Value Volume

TOTAL NOVELTIES

EASTER CONFECTIONARY

Novelties increasing significantly in value and volume year on year and

week on week for Easter 2014. +200.4% in value.

Total Easter Eggs showing a slight value increase v’s 2013 with a growth of

+1.9% as volume continues to decline.

Significant growth week on week as over 50% of the value is sold through in

Easter Week.



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EASTER EGGS

Easter Eggs

+1.9% in 2014 in val

Easter Eggs

-1.8% in 2014 in vol

EASTER EGG VALUE TREND WEEKLY

44.3 45.5

Easter Wk 2013 Easter Wk 2014

EASTER EGGS - VOLUME SOLD ON PROMOTION

Over 75% of the

Easter Egg volume is sold in the 2 weeks up

to Easter Sunday

The average

€/Kg of an Easter Egg

has increased by +4.8% in 2014



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15 16

12 12 14

13 15

15.4.14 16.4.14 17.4.14 18.4.14 19.4.14 20.4.14 21.4.15

Ave Temp (DA) in Celsius

WEATHER IMPACTS EASTER SALES…. BBQ products show a significant increase in Easter 2014 as the weather heats up….

5 4

3 4 4

6 5

25.3.13 26.3.13 27.3.13 28.3.13 29.3.13 30.3.13 31.3.13

Ave Temp (DA) on Celsius

Easter 2013

Easter 2014

DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE @ DUBLIN AIRPORT

Easter Week 2014 V 2013 % Chg

Easter Week V Previous Week

BBQ Products (Disposable BBQ/Utensils/Charcoal)* +779.1% +889.0%

Frozen Prepared Quarter Pounders +108.6% +18.4%

Pre Packed Sausages +3.7% +15.4%

BBQ Sauce +63.1% +28.8%

Tomato Ketchup -1.8% +11.1%

Buns / Rolls / Baps +23.2% +8.8%

Pre Packed Salad +19.2% +11.5%



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Total Alcohol Volume 9.1% 28.6%



Chilled Fish* -2.7% +43.1 %

Frozen Fish -0.3% +22.1%

GOOD FRIDAY TRADITIONS Fish still popular in Easter week, but down compared to last year. Whereas alcohol purchase has increased.

Fish

Prepared/ Savoury Dips +11.3% +12.1%

Total Crisps +0.3% +9.3%

Total Snacks +0.5% +8.0%

Sharing Bags +2.8% +19.7%

Volume % on promotion

Easter Week 2013 – 70.4% Easter Week 2014 – 65.3%

Alcohol

Snacks

Top 3 Alcohol Categories for

Easter Week 2014 on Promo

1. Table Wine – 70% 2. Vodka – 68.3% 3. Gin - 67.3%

% chg. vs Easter 2013

+0.2% +10.0% +20.2%

Alcohol



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EASTER SUNDAY - ROAST DINNER Turkey was the dinner of choice for Easter Sunday followed by Lamb…



Smoked Salmon* +2.6% +56.6%

Pate* -20.1% +11.8%

Total Soup -34.9% -6.9%

Chilled RW Turkey* +7.4% +164.5%

Chilled RW Lamb* -10.8% +136.0%

Chilled RW Beef* -21.1% +9.0%

Chilled RW Pork* -20.3% +5.5%

Chilled RW Chicken* -8.4% -0.2%

Pre packed Stuffing -0.1% +60.1%

Total Fresh Vegetables* -10.0% +10.9%

Total Frozen Vegetables -13.8% +8.2%

Mint Sauce / Jelly -5.0% +184.6%

Cranberry Sauce -7.8% +146.1%

Stock & Gravy Mixes -17.2% +8.7%

Meat…

Appetiser…

Sides

A bit of flavour…



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SO WHAT…. • NPD is key: new products are driving the success of Easter novelty

items. • Timing is key: 75% of Easter egg volume is sold in the 2 weeks leading

up to Eater Sunday. • Advertising is key: with lamb and turkey showing significant growth

for the Easter Sunday roast, both being featured in key retailers advertising in the run-up to Easter Sunday.

• Weather is key: weather significantly impacts retail sales. With the first good weekend of the year falling at Easter we see consumers opting for outdoor cooking.

For more information please contact our Dublin Office at +353-1-469-0400

nielsen spring 2014 report...valentines day 2014: 1 week data to feb 16.14 v 1 week data to feb...

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