nickel future supply challenges: the structural shortfall...

Nickel Future Supply Challenges:

The Structural Shortfall in Supply Begins

Mark Selby, President & CEO

Royal Nickel Corporation

April 29, 2015

www.royalnickel.com

Disclaimer

Cautionary Statements Concerning Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains "forward-looking information" including without limitation statements relating to the future price and supply and demand and the positive implications the Indonesian ore export ban will have on the outlook for nickel; and statements relating to construction and production at the Dumont Nickel Project. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual outcome, events, results, performance or achievements of RNC to be materially different from any future outcome, events, results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Factors that could affect the outcome include, among others: future actions taken by the Indonesian government as well as mining companies operating in Indonesia; general business, economic, political and social uncertainties; availability of alternative nickel sources or substitutes; and financing to complete construction and achieve production at Dumont. For a more detailed discussion of such risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, refer to RNC's filings with Canadian securities regulators available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Although RNC has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual outcome, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause outcome, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this presentation and RNC disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by applicable securities laws.

1 TSX: RNX

All currency references in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise stated.

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Summary

Nickel entering a multi-year period of structural nickel supply shortages

Nickel demand continues to be robust - growing at an average of 6.3% since 2010 Nickel demand grew by more than 5% in 2014. Strong demand expected to continue in 2015 Large increase in LME stocks more than compensated by massive destocking in China

Existing sources of nickel supply will struggle to provide required overall supply Supply to decline in 2015-2016 and net supply growth of just over 2% by 2020 “Big 15” nickel operations are shrinking with little prospect of potential expansions

“Tidal Wave” of projects started in 2007-2010 continue to struggle

Project cupboard largely “empty” and pace of discoveries a fraction of what’s required -now need ~2 Voisey’s Bay and 3-4 Nova-Bollinger EACH year

Nickel market will depend on Indonesia, Philippines and lower grade sulphides Indonesia commitment to ban remains resolute

China took 6 years to get to current NPI levels – how many $ billions and how long in Indonesia given lack of infrastructure ? Indonesia to become world’s largest nickel producer but will be mid-2020s at least to get there

Philippines – possible ban? How much saprolite exports can be supported ?

Lower grade sulphides with significant infrastructure and low cost power a competitive alternative?

With recent price trough, market peak 16-29 months away based on past cycles Past cycles indicate that nickel prices could get to $30-$50,000 per tonne by early 2016 and structural supply

shortages to maintain prices at above average price levels through end of decade

2

www.royalnickel.com 3

Nickel Demand Evolution of Chinese Nickel Demand

As an economy industrializes, demand moves from more basic materials like carbon steel into stainless steels and ultimately into specialty alloys that require a lot of nickel and will drive non-stainless nickel consumption in China

Source: World Steel Association, INSG, World Stainless Steel Statistics, Woodmac, Macquarie Research, RNC Analysis

203

441 503

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

3.8

18.4

13.5

0

5

10

15

20

0.2

1.1 1.1

0

0.5

1

1.5

Carbon Steel Stainless Steel Nickel

China 2013

2010 Kg/capita consumption 2010 Kg/capita consumption 2010 Kg/capita consumption

China 2013

China 2013

China 2010

China 2010

China 2010

www.royalnickel.com

1.1 1.1

0.4

0.7

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Nickel Consumption per Capita 2010 (kg/capita)

4

Chinese Nickel Demand At Least ½ Million Tonnes More to Go …

Source: Wood Mackenzie, RNC Analysis

Despite huge growth in demand, Chinese per capita consumption is still only just over half that of industrial economies such as Germany and Japan

At Japanese and German per capita consumption levels,

Chinese nickel demand alone would increase by nearly ½ million tonnes annually

from 2013 to 2020

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Nickel Demand Rest of World (ROW) Demand

ROW demand rebounded in 2014 for the first time since 2010

5

2000 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Global Nickel Demand ex-China

2000 – 2014F (Kt) 1,067 1,060

987 915

842 918 894 Other

// //

907 909 930

U.S.

South Korea Taiwan

Japan

Europe

Source: Wood Mackenzie, CRU, RNC Analysis

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WHERE WILL NEW NICKEL SUPPLY COME FROM ?

Existing sources of nickel supply will struggle to provide required supply; overall supply to decline in 2015-2016 and net supply growth of only just over 2% by 2020

“Big 15” nickel operations, more than 60% of supply in 2005, have actually shrank by 3% and are likely to continue to decline going forward with little expansion potential

“Tidal Wave” of projects started in 2007-2010 continue to struggle and will contribute only another 100ktpa of supply by the end of the decade

Project cupboard now largely empty and pace of discovery is only a fraction of what’s required to meet demand - ~ 2 Voisey’s Bay or 4 Nova-Bollinger EACH year (but only finding a few per DECADE)

Nickel market will depend on Indonesia, Philippines, and lower grade sulphide projects

Indonesia to become largest nickel producer and one of world’s largest stainless producers but how long and how many billions?

Took China 7 years to get to current levels, why expect Indonesia is going to do faster with far less infrastructure in place – should it take 10 years ? 15 years ?

Will Philippines also implement ore export restrictions ? What level of saprolite exports can physically be supported ? What level of mining activity will communities allow to occur ?

6

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Core Nickel Mines Depleting

41%

25%

22%

12%

2014

7

65% 3%

32%

2006

NPI NPI

Other Other

“The Big 15”

“The Big 15”

The “big 15” nickel operations have experienced declining production, while NPI production in China, fed largely by Indonesian ore, met growth in demand through 2013

World Nickel Production

“Tidal Wave” (new projects commissioned

in 2007-10)


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Output from the “Big 15” Nickel Operation Has Declined Despite Strong Demand Growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

8

Output from the “big 15” nickel operations declined overall by 11% and declined in 11 out of 15 operations from 2006 to 2014 – most operations saw further declines in 2014

2006

2013

Nickel Production from Top 15 Operations (kt)


2014

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China NOT Self-Sufficient in Nickel

<5% 12%

18%

29%

54% 57%

67%

85%

PlatinumPalladium

Nickel Copper Iron Ore(62% Fe-eq)

Lead Aluminium(Bauxite)

Tin Zinc

Chinese Self-Sufficiency Mine Supply as a % of Demand (2012)

9

Source: USGS, Wood Mackenzie Ltd., Macquarie Research, RNC Analysis

Chinese domestic production not likely to add significant volumes of nickel

www.royalnickel.com

248

242

Nickel SupplyIn Construction

2011-15

Potential Supply 2010-2020

490

10

Nickel Supply — “Tidal Wave” Projects

Source: Wood Mackenzie Ltd., RNC Analysis 2014F based on Q3 2014 data

New supply growth from the “tidal wave” of new projects is still ~50% of capacity and RNC expects that it can reach 60%+ by 2020

TSX: RNX

Project

Annual Capacity

2012

WoodMac 2013F

Actual 2013

WoodMac 2014F

RNC Forecast

2015 2020

VNC (Goro) 60 4 27 16 18

Ambatovy 60 0 33 25 38

Koniambo 60 0 16 1 14

Onca Puma 55 6 2 2 22

Talvivaara 50 13 22 9 10

Barro Alto 40 22 31 25 28

Ravensthorpe 39 33 41 38 30

Ramu 33 5 13 11 20

Taganito 30 0 0 0 23

Santa Rita 26 19 18 16 9

Eagle 17 0 0 0 4

Niquelandia 10 0 5 0 10

Kevitsa 10 4 10 9 9

Total 490 106 218 153 235 280 345

Nickel Supply “Tidal Wave” Ramping Up or In Construction 2010-2015 (Kt)

Specifics Removed Higher risk

Lower risk

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“Tidal Wave” Cleaned out the Cupboard

The bulk of the current wave of projects have been known for many decades: either discovered/developed too late during the 1965–75 period or inferior to other projects that were developed

Most of the “Tidal Wave” sat “in the cupboard” for many decades (even back to the beginning of the last century)

11

Project Discovery

Koniambo Early 1900s

Goro Early 1900s

Ramu Early 1960s

Ambatovy Early 1960s

Barro Alto Early 1960s

Onca Puma Mid 1970s

Talvivaara Early 1980s

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New Nickel Supply Fundamental Issue: An Empty “Project Cupboard”

The fundamental issue facing the nickel industry by 2015–2016 is an empty “project cupboard” outside Indonesia At the beginning of the last decade prior to the significant run-up in nickel prices, the

“project cupboard” was very full with many projects known for decades Today’s picture is very, very different, setting the stage for an exciting nickel cycle

Project Cupboard 2001 (20+kt)

TOTAL: 500+ kt

Project Cupboard 2013 (20+kt)

TOTAL: 150+kt

Barro Alto Weda Bay

Koniambo DUMONT Onca Puma Enterprise

Tagaung Taung Kabanga

Ambatovy Nova-Bollinger

Goro

Ramu

Ravensthorpe

Weda Bay

Talvivaara*

Kabanga

Voisey’s Bay Sulphide

Laterite (HPAL)

Laterite (ferronickel)

Sulphide

Laterite (leach)

*bioheapleaching process

12

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Significant Nickel Discoveries by Decade A Fraction of the Required Pace

1990s 2000s 2010s

Voisey’s Bay Eagle Nova Bollinger

Enterprise Nickel Rim South

Musgrave

Araguia

Sakatti

13

Pace of discovery is only a fraction of what’s required to meet demand – now the equivalent of ~ 2 Voisey’s Bay or 4 Nova-Bollinger discoveries EACH YEAR

Industry has only managed to deliver a few discoveries per DECADE


NPI Production Beginning to Decline and Declines Expected to Continue

Source: Antaike, RNC analysis

Chinese Nickel Pig Iron Production (Annualized Monthly Production, Kt)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

Aug-1

3

Sep-1

3

Oct-

13

No

v-1

3

De

c-1

3

Jan-1

4

Feb

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Apr-

14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun-1

4

Jul-1

4

Aug-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Jan-1

5

Feb

-15

20

15 f

ore

cast

230 kt decline; ~12% of global supply

67 kt decline;

~3% of global

supply

297 kt decline;

~15% of

global supply

NPI production has already declined more than 30% from peak 2014 levels equivalent to a reduction of 10% in global nickel supply

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What Will Be Capital Cost Intensity of NPI Projects ?

Will it be the $50-85,000 tpa seen in other recent FeNi projects, or will it approach the performance of NPI plants in China ? Please note that Dumont and other open pit sulphide mine/mill operations are less capital intensive than other Western World projects.

15

Source: RNC technical report dated July 25, 2013, publicly available disclosure, Wood Mackenzie Ltd. (figures shown to two significant digits)

Capital Intensity For Selected Nickel Projects

Sulphide

Laterite

36 37 47

53 60

83

47

73 79

92

0102030405060708090

100

Sulphide – Open Pit Laterite – Ferronickel Laterite – HPAL

00

0s

per

to

nn

e in

itia

l cap

acit

y

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Chinese Mining Projects Outside China Similar/Worse Performance to Western Producers ?

16

Project Location Construction

Initial Capex

Estimate Revised Capex

Expected Start

Actual Start Sources

Base Metals

North America

2007 ~$500 M $1 B (2013) 2010 2013

Woodmac; Company news release date November 5, 2013; Globe and Mail, Oct 16, 2009

Base Metals

South America

2011 $1.5 billion

(2007) $2.2B (2007) and $3.5 B in (2013)

2012 2013

Bnamericas.com, January 18, 2013; Worldal.com, June 13, 2007; Company

Bulk Materials

Australia 2006 $2.5 B (2006);

$4 B (2009) $9.9 B (2013) 2010 2012

Company; Wall Street Journal August 26, 2013; DOW JONES SEPTEMBER 16, 2014; Bloomberg, April 16, 2014

Selected Examples – Recently Completed Chinese Mining Projects Outside China

China’s recent track record outside China suggests it could be no better than other Western projects.

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Indonesia is the Critical Factor for the Nickel Market

With the ore ban resolutely in place, Indonesia is positioned to become the world’s largest nickel producer and one of the largest stainless producers

How quickly can 350kt of projects be built to replace NPI production from Indonesian ore in China ?

If China took 6 years to create 450ktpa of nickel production, how long would it take for that capacity to be replaced in Indonesia given the lack of infrastructure, skilled labour, and power ?

Will it happen by early 2020s ? Mid 2020s ? Late 2020s ?

How willing are financial institutions to provide the billions of financing required to replace 350kt of Chinese NPI production from Indonesian ore?

Financing requirements would be $17-28 billion (at recent global examples of $50-$85,000 per tonne)

Will they require projects to be successfully commissioned before financing the next ones ?

17


Nickel – Portside Indonesian Ore Stocks and Prices

Source: Ferroalloynet.com Limited

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

US$

/wm

t FO

B

Nickel Ore Prices

Laterite 1.8% Ni Ore (12-18% Fe)

Laterite 1.5% Ni Ore (Philippines 25-30% Fe)

Philippines ore

Indonesia ore

17

.0

17

.5

17

.4

17

.6

18

.1

18

.9

18

.3

17

.6

16

.9

16

.6

16

.2

15

.1

14

.7

14

.4

14

.3

14

.0

13

.5

13

.2

13

.1

12

.9

12

.4

11

.9

11

.3

10

.9

10

.7

10

.5

10

.3

10

.1

10

.0

9.8

9

.4

9.0

8

.7

8.7

8

.6

8.5

8

.2

7.9

7

.9

7.8

7

.8

7.6

7

.5

7.3

7

.0

7.0

6

.8

6.4

6

.3

6.3

6

.1

6.1

5

.9

5.7

5

.4

5.1

4

.8

4.6

4

.5

4.4

4

.4

4.4

4

.4

4.3

8.4

8

.3

7.8

7

.4

7.2

7.2

6

.4

6.3

6

.5

6.0

5

.4

5.5

5

.6

5.6

5

.5

5.3

5

.8

6.1

6

.1

6.5

9

.9

10

.7

11

.4

11

.8

12

.3

12

.5

12

.5

12

.9

13

.2

13

.6

14

.1

14

.7

14

.9

15

.0

15

.2

15

.1

15

.8

16

.2

16

.2

15

.9

16

.1

16

.1

16

.0

15

.8

15

.6

15

.3

14

.9

14

.6

14

.5

14

.4

14

.2

13

.7

13

.7

13

.6

13

.5

14

.0

13

.9

14

.1

13

.7

13

.5

13

.5

13

.6

13

.5

13

.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

Chinese Portside Nickel Ore Stocks Total (Mt)

14-Feb-2014 Peak 18.9 Mt

24-Apr-2015: 4.3 Mt

Indonesian ore stocks have declined 14.5 Mt from the peak (170 kt nickel) in February 2014 and 2.0 Mt from the start of 2015

www.royalnickel.com

Philippines Also Critical to Global Nickel Supply

The Philippines ability and willingness to increase saprolite supply to China is another critical issue for nickel supply

Will Philippines implement ore export restrictions as well ?

In absence of a ban, will Philippines attract additional investment ?

What level of mining activity will communities allow to occur ?

Will communities support significantly higher levels of mining activity ?

What level of saprolite exports can physically be supported ? Recent increase in shipments can come from two possible sources

Stockpiles ?

Given low 1.5% saprolite prices of <$20 in 2013 , a likely possibility

Additional mining ?

Given resource base, many deposits can generate 2+ tonnes of limonite per tonne of saprolite. What price will be required to profitably mine saprolite if limonite markets remain weak due to iron ore weakness ?

How much saprolite production can be sustained at new mine in Tawi Tawi ?

19


Philippines Providing Little Additional Ore to Market

Philippines ore imports into China have increased, but are providing only a fraction of the 50+ million tonnes imported from Indonesia. Portion of increase in exports believed to be previously stockpiled material.

Chinese Nickel Ore Imports from Philippines

(2012-2015)

Source: GTIS

Philippines Nickel Ore Exports to China (Mt)

29.6

36.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2013 2014

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Nic

kel O

re (

Mill

ion

s o

f to

nn

es)

2014

2013

2012 2015

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Why Sulphides Versus Laterites ?

Simpler mine/mill operations rather than fully integrated smelting/refining operations

Conventional mine/mill operations have a long track record. Breakthrough by BHP Billiton (originally WMC Resources) at Mt. Keith in processing ultramafic ores has now operated successfully for almost 20 years

Capital intensity a fraction of largest scale laterite projects For examples, RNC Dumont’s upfront capital estimate of $1.2 billion and $36,000 per tonne of nickel output is a fraction of the $5+ billion and capital intensity of ~$90,000 per tonne spent at Goro, Koniambo, Ambatovy

Inherently, sulphide minerals require much less energy intensive to liberate nickel than laterites

Many deposits in more politically stable jurisdictions (e.g. Canada, Finland, Sweden, Australia) versus (Indonesia, Philippines, PNG, New Caledonia)

Higher grade, low impurity concentrates like Dumont can be used in a roasted form as a very high grade feed in any NPI / FeNi / stainless steel operation

21

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Tsingshan Strategic Alliance Led to World’s 1st Integrated Stainless Steel Plant Utilizing Sulphide Concentrate

22

Tsingshan currently constructing the world’s first integrated nickel pig iron (“NPI”) plant to utilize nickel sulphide concentrate as part of the stainless steel production process.

The plant began operation in fall 2014

Significant potential benefits to producers of suitable nickel sulphide concentrate feed such as RNC’s Dumont Project:

Lower costs due to simpler processing compared to traditional smelting and refining

Higher payability than traditional smelting and refining

Greater flexibility for more potential partners and customers

Roasted nickel concentrate is effectively a very high grade laterite ore feed –

creates new source of demand for nickel sulphide concentrate notably at a time when many NPI and ferronickel producers face feed shortages as a result of Indonesia’s recently implemented nickel ore export ban.


RNC Forecast – Supply / Demand Balance

USE

Source: Wood Mackenzie Ltd, RNC Analysis

82 135 178

197 256

322

1,499

2,485

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Existing

Supply

NPI

Demand (underlying)

Nickel Supply / Demand Forecast (Kt)

Structural deficit Demand (constrained)

Nickel prices will once again have to rise to force demand in line with available supply as in 2006-2007 ($30,000-$50,000+/t), particularly 2018 when available supply constrains demand growth

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Summary

Nickel entering a multi-year period of structural nickel supply shortages

Nickel demand continues to be robust - growing at an average of 6.3% since 2010 Nickel demand grew by more than 5% in 2014. Strong demand expected to continue in 2015 Large increase in LME stocks more than compensated by massive destocking in China

Existing sources of nickel supply will struggle to provide required overall supply Supply to decline in 2015-2016 and net supply growth of just over 2% by 2020 “Big 15” nickel operations are shrinking with little prospect of potential expansions

“Tidal Wave” of projects started in 2007-2010 continue to struggle

Project cupboard largely “empty” and pace of discoveries a fraction of what’s required -now need ~2 Voisey’s Bay and 3-4 Nova-Bollinger EACH year

Nickel market will depend on Indonesia, Philippines and lower grade sulphides Indonesia commitment to ban remains resolute

China took 6 years to get to current NPI levels – how many $ billions and how long in Indonesia given lack of infrastructure ? Indonesia to become world’s largest nickel producer but will be mid-2020s at least to get there

Philippines – possible ban? How much saprolite exports can be supported ?

Lower grade sulphides with significant infrastructure and low cost power a competitive alternative?

With recent price trough, market peak 16-29 months away based on past cycles Past cycles indicate that nickel prices could get to $30-$50,000 per tonne as early as mid 2016 and structural

supply shortages to maintain prices at above average price levels through end of decade

24

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Nickel Price Cycle Analysis

7 troughs have occurred since nickel trading began on LME. Historically, troughs occurred in Q4, but April’s collapse breaks the pattern With shift in demand to Asia, is Lunar New Year going to shift troughs to end Q1 ?

25

Q4 1982

Q1 1987 (4 trading days after Q4)

Q3 1993 (1 trading day before Q4)

Q4 1998

Q4 2001

Q4 2005

Q4 2008

April 2015?

Nickel Market Price Cycles Troughs

Source: MetalPrices.com, RNC analysis

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Nickel Price Cycle Analysis

An April 2015 trough is the 3rd longest peak->trough. Other long declines occurred during periods of structural oversupply.

26

38

19

22

20

45

66

21

33

0 20 40 60 80

Feb 2011 to Apr 2015

May 2007 to Dec 2008

Jan 2004 to Nov 2005

Mar 2000 to Oct 2001

Jan 1995 to Oct 1998

Mar 1988 to Sep 1993

Apr 1985 to Jan 1987

Mar 1980 to Nov 1982

Nickel Market Price Cycle Peak to Trough (months)


Elimination of large producer inventories

Russian collapse

Threat of “$1/lb” PAL + Voisey’s Bay

NPI + “Tidal Wave” Projects

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Nickel Prices – Lessons from Last Inventory Peak

27

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

LME Inventory (tonnes)

Nickel Price ($/lb)

At prior nickel inventory peak, it took only 3 months and a 6% decline in inventories before nickel prices hit their peak for that cycle (a 150% increase in prices in just 18 months from trough to peak

(352,000)

(331,000)

(309,000)

(287,000)

(265,000)

(243,000)

(222,000)

(200,000)

(178,000)

2 mths

LME Nickel Prices and Inventories Sep. 1993 – Jan. 1995 (Prior Inventory Record – Weeks of Consumption)

Bracketed amount is 2014 equivalent of 1994 inventory levels adjusted for week of consumption

Source: Metalprices.com, RNC Analysis

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Nickel Price Cycle Analysis — Explosive Price Moves

Nickel price moves have always been explosive even without China. Again, why would it be different this cycle? Remember that a 150-300% price increase from a $12,500 trough is $30-$50,000 !!

28

84%

595%

157% 184% 301%

371%

221%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

Q4 1982Q2 1985

Q1 1987Q1 1988

Q3 1993Q1 1995

Q4 1998Q1 2000

Q4 2001Q1 2004

Q4 2005Q2 2007

Q4 2008Q1 2011

Q2 2015?

Nickel Price Increase (Trough to Peak)

Trough Peak


150%=$30,000

300%=$50,000

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Corporate Overview

29 TSX: RNX

Share Structure:

Basic Shares Outstanding1: 109.8 million Options (average exercise price: C$0.62) 12.5 million Deferred/Restricted Share Units 1.8 million Warrants (exercise price: C$0.98) 5.7 million Compensation Warrants (ave. price C$0.60) 0.6 million Contingent Shares 7.0 million

Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding: 137.4 million

Directors and Officers Share Ownership: ~9%

Largest Shareholder –

RAB Special Situations (Master) Fund Limited: ~17%

Balance Sheet Highlights2: Cash and Cash Equivalents: C$2.9 million Current Tax Receivable: C$0.4 million Working Capital: C$1.2 million Market Capitalization: C$33 million

1. Shares outstanding, fully diluted shares outstanding and shareholdings as at February 27, 2015 2. Balance sheet highlights as at December 31, 2014; market capitalization at February 27, 2015

nickel future supply challenges: the structural shortfall...

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