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Forecasting the Future of Mobile Communications

Jacob van Kokswijk

5th Annual 3G2001

Nice, 2001 May 23nd 2


Jacob van Kokswijk, Senior Analyst & Strategic Imagineer of Cap Gemini Ernst & Young forecasts towards a mobile as underwear in ‘The Future Of

Mobile Communications’.

45 amazing minutes of Imagineering and Forecasting

before the final bell rings.

Due to possible copyrights to distribution, the photographs and sounds in the live presentation are cutted out in this file.


The Hell of the Bell

Alexander Bell made at least 1 fault: he connected an alarm bell to his phone. For hundred years people will interrupt when they hear a phone alert signal.

Or the vibration alert let people rise and run, like they need a rush to the toilet.

Please switch off your mobile phone during this presentation !

Thanks on behalves of all delegates.


3 days with 3 g legs crossed

We passed in three days:

Key Drivers & The Market

Pricing & Billing for 3G

Investment & Finance

Services & Applications

Business Opportunities

Panels:

Creating smart 3G devices

Attractive Applications for 3G

Developing 3G Value Chain


• 3 days with 3 g legs crossedA Triptych in ThirdG

Three days of baby-talk… Everyone is presenting here their fictive 3G success

story, even without any survived service or system. Everyone is asking for ‘proved technology’, but why

three days of presenting new equipment, solutions and service-concepts, without any ‘proved business’.

Everyone is talking about the consumer, but nobody really has a presentation where the consumer talks.

Everyone is searching for the killer application, but nobody has the guts to kill their application providers.

Everyone is looking here to each other, wishing and hoping some one else has the brilliant idea of this century.

Three days of baby-talk…


• 3 days with 3 g legs crossedWe arrogantly thought that we

could dictate the consumers needs and necessaires

3g Market Misunderstandings:

• ‘The customer is King’. That customer is your consumer. Not you! Also the Customer wanna be like you. The Customer decides about Personalizing his Customer Relation.

• People change earlier by Accepting their Strong and Weak Points, than by Forced Seek for other Habits or other Personality.

• Safely and Trust are the Basic Needs. Convenience and Coverage are the Basic Necessaries. Feelings of unsafely paralyse.


• 3 days with 3 g legs crossedWe lost control of the

consumers and the auctions, because 3G was still technology

driven3g Mazlov Misunderstandings:

• Consumers are human and expect first Connectivity, Coverage and Care; secondly Confidence and Convergence; when those are realised,

Convenience and ‘Easy of Use’ could follow.

• Unfamiliarity with the practice reduces trust.

• Ignorance of the danger increases the anxiety.

• Human is leading, technology is bleeding


• 3 days with 3 g legs crossedWe paid too early and too much

for a licence to exploit a technology that isn’t ready yet

Operators are crying about the high licence costs, but didn’t they show the public how good business GSM was? And which attractive niches could be brought by UMTS? Governmental auctions only reflect the exposure of the operators…

Remember:3G has not been developed for the customers needs,

but for the operators capacity shortness

3G wasn’t technology revolution, neither innovation


Is innovation revolutionary ?

locomotive electricity ocean steamer vacuum cleaner telegraph airplane radio television atomic fusion mobile phone

Martin Martin CooperCooper


Accident by 3 g_aps

27-03-2001

Signal operators Signal operators first tried to warn first tried to warn the driver, but the driver, but can’t find his can’t find his mobile-number. mobile-number. DelayedDelayed,, they they forced other forced other operators to stop operators to stop the other train, the other train, but misuse in but misuse in communication. communication. Cutting power to Cutting power to the line to trigger the line to trigger the emergency the emergency brakes on both brakes on both trainstrains,, failed by failed by misinterpreting misinterpreting the the network network diagrams.diagrams.


If we can’t precure such an serious accident…

Consumers first want to be safe, healthy and accepted.

Fat applications like video and multimedia will lose out to thin, text-based applications.

Users will demand content and services that complement the primary function of their device and provide timely information, enable simple transactions, and are location-relevant.


• 3 days with 3 g legs crossed3G could be successful, but not now and in this way

Forrester predicts that successful mobile data applications will be: 1) timely; 2) simple; and 3) location-based.

Location-based services are the potential boom. Later this year, US wireless operators will begin to conform with phase 2 of the FCC's enhanced 911 initiative, which mandates increased precision in automated location identification of an emergency call from a mobile phone. Carriers that implement a networkbased solution will be required to locate 67% of 911 calls within 100 meters and 95% of calls within 300 meters. Carriers that opt for a handset-based solution must locate 67% of calls within 50 meters and 95% of calls within 150 meters. Carriers must begin selling location-enabled handsets by October 1, 2001.


The Innovated Industry of Future Freakers, Trend

Trippers and Wealth Watchers

“The practice of dividing the world up into a list of trends might at first seem a little too arbitrary. Its purpose, however, is not to render life simplistic or superficial, but to establish a categorical foundation on which a greater depth of knowledge can be built.”

- John Naisbitt & Patricia Aburdene

- Megatrends 2000


The Innovated Industry of Future Freakers, Trend

Trippers and Wealth Watchers

Short term-forecasts tend to be dull and obvious, long-term forecasts provocative and unreliable". (Nigel Calder Technopolis 1969)

So… why all those forecasts, in stead of reviews to learn lessons from the past?

Is it that we like heaven more than dead?


The Innovated Industry of Future Freakiers, Trend Trippers and Wealth Watchers

Technologic Finalism

Believable future-vision is:

• Reduction of Complexity Present Innovation as simple as possible;

• Praise the Advantages to the Skies Boost all global, central, extended, extreme advantages of the new service or product.

• Techno Optimistic Talks Talk all problems away to the future.

• Dragging and Bragging Copy sheets and slides of others; Pronounce frequently Gartner, Forrester, Ovum, IDC , etc.



Big Blind BusinessThe Business of Future-vision is:

• Conferences Commuting In a country of blind, the one-eyed is king; the others make a trip around congresses.

• Concept Competition By absence of vision on the board level, engineers are expected to present one.

• Dooming Delay Scenario’s Press the governments to decide now, to subside tomorrow and to think about later.

•Virtual Virile Voting organizations For every question a dot org ; for every standard a voting lobby mechanism.



Forecasting or Gorecasting

To get a Forecasting based Future-vision:

• Multiply the successes, negotiate the inaccuracies Present ambitions in stead of questions.

• Blast Booming Curves Use upwards graphics, diagrams and research-results, doesn’t matter what.

• Shop and Show your ‘network’ Subscribe to all analyst’s newsgroups, and forward frequently the highlights.

• Copy and Distribute relevant publications Expectations of tomorrow are the Policies of today.


COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

The Introduction of Third Generation Mobile Communications in the EU:

State of Play and the Way Forward. Brussels, 20.3.2001

Commission recalls the great economic and societal potential that future wireless services will offer. COM(2001)141 final.

Despite the current uncertainties of the markets, it should not be forgotten that 3G is built on very strong foundations and that in the foreseeable future it is the only viable, widely supported common platform for all broadband mobile Internet applications. 3G will offer users a new quality of wireless services based on global roaming capability: personalised services, transaction services, mobile data transmission, and location-based services. For these reasons, all concerned actors need to work together to tackle outstanding issues and concerns raised by the introduction of wireless data services in the European Union. Et cetera.


COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

And what did the Commission really do?…:• Leaving the G3 auctions behind us

• Starting a Task Force for IPv6

• Saying OK to Sharing of Antenna sites / antennas

• Sharing of the not-intelligent Network-parts

• Pushing the Euro Governments to new broadband services

• Copying the US Innovation successes to own territories, like the Brussels-based Starlab

• Starting the Digital Broadcast auctions.


Evolution of mobile from 1G to 4 G

Worldwide we are still using 1G, building 2G, testing 2G+, developing basics of 3G, and also talking about 4G in 2008?

Amazing…


1938 – 1973 - 20011938 – 1973 – 2001


• The evolution of mobile from 1G to 4G The Battle of the Generations

1st Generation 2nd Generation Next

Generations analog cellular (single band) digital (dual-mode, dual-band)

multi-mode, multi-band: software defined radio

voice telecom only voice + data telecom

macro cell only macro / micro / pico cell

evolve services market beyond traditional telecoms: higher speed data, improved voice, multi-media mobility

outdoor coverage seamless indoor / outdoor

coverage

distinct from fixed PSTN complementary to fixed PSTN

integration with PSTN, complementary to IT offers (data networks, Internet, VPN): WINternet

re-definition of traditional public/private sector roles & responsibilities

business customer focus business + consumer total communications

subscriber: virtual personal networking

Technology Driven Service Market Driven


• The evolution of mobile from 1G to 4G The Battle of the Generations

AMPS

SS7

Intl SS7 Gateway

(ANSI SS7 to ITU SS7)

GSM 900/1800 Network

GSM 1900 Network

AMPS

ANSI-136 800/1900 Network

Multi-mode Mobile

Multi-mode Mobile

Multi-mode Mobile and/or

SIM Card

SS7

GSM / ANSI-41 IIF

May be physically consolidated

Backwards Compatible

Inter-network Roaming

Inter-system Roaming


GPRS as GaPRS

05/2001

Patrick Leleu (Bouygues): Due to the lack of sufficient technology, UMTS delays for 2 years.


Practice makes Perfect …

• Call back for GPRS devices in UK

• Call back for UMTS devices in UK (Is. Man)

• Call back for IMT-2000 devices in Japan

• Call back for W-CDMA1x devices in Japan

• Worldwide Headaches for Java-enabled handsets

• Struggling for UMTS start up in Korea

• Struggling with UMTS field trials in France

• Struggling with inter-network roaming in Sweden

• Delay for DoCoMo, Vodafone and many others

• None national coverage until 2005


• The evolution of mobile from 1G to 4G 3g

makes Practice Perfect ?

Still technical difficulties with: Handsets Coverage-inconvenience Network-synchronisation IP implementation Inter-network Roaming Data speed (Max. approx. 300 kB/s) Different protocols in Europe, Japan and US


• The evolution of mobile from 1G to 4G 3g as Smart Smock, 4g as Bionic Buddy

3g Devices: Toys for boys, pearls for girls… Does anyone wonder about the relation between

fashion and mobile? Look to Asians, all the same in hear, length and colored eyes,

That region is going blond, and burgundy and auburn and chestnut. Where people try to differentiate themselves… Girls now use hear dye, colored lenses and platform-shoes.

The diffusion of mobile phones should continue by following that fashion twist.

A 4G Device will be an personalized IP-version of 3G, but 100% individual owned and managed.


4G and others are attacking the Mobile Operators

Scenarios for the Wireless Landscape around 2007 will give an overview of competing technologies for mobile data infrastructure evolution 2003-2010.

The trade-off between bandwidth and mobility & coverage will have an impact on terminals, usage patterns and market positioning.

Technologies will competing in wireless data infrastructure and this presentation will cover the different strategic models for technologies, including GSM/GPRS, 3G, W-LAN, Optical Wireless, Digital TV, All-IP, satellite and OFDM.

4g = wireless broadband IP. The built-in intelligence allows the system to simultaneous offer fixed wireless DSL, portable wireless DSL and full broadband revenue opportunities in a single base-station and management framework.


• The evolution of mobile from 1G to 4G The final bell for

the Intelligent Networks 4g devise will be individual and completely independent

of propriety networks 4g has Speech-,

Handwriting- and Handicap recognition

4g devices are also game-consoles, pluriform machine-controls and operator-terminals

Intelligence moves from network to both ends: Smart Device, with all personalized adjustments Learning Portal, CRM based, with Artificial

Intelligence


Development of Communication Providers as

next generation Service Enablers

Repositioning of e-bankse-banks, contentcontent, entertainment and service providers


Disney

• Development of communication providers as next generation service enablers

Repositioning of e-bankse-banks, contentcontent, entertainment and

service providers

Now Money items: Costs of transactions Used Content-/ Service Micro Payments Interest Investments


Disney



service providers

Next Money items: Transactions Licences Content Almost all Payments Interest Investments




service providers

Future Money items: Transactions Content Priority Usage Context Location All Payments Interest Investments



Repositioning of e-bankse-banks, contentcontent and and entertainment to

full service communication providers

Content, Context, Location, Transaction, Communicating Services, Enabling Services,

Insurance, Congierge & Personalized Services, Brooking, Collecting, Delivery, Transport,

Billing, Micro- and Macro-payments


Business before Pleasure

1. Try to Survive under the Load of 3g licence fees

2. Business Plans for the next Network investments

3. Delivery of adequate 3g devices for the trials

4. GPRS as useful leg up to 3g for the next 10 years

5. Site- and Network sharing to get National coverage

6. Cooperate or Fight to reach the global Top Ten

7. Marketing “refresh” to find the Customers needs

8. Do not believe in Killer App’s; trust in CRM

9. Focus to the Personal Communication Centres

10.Meets the needs of the changing world…

Hints & Kinks


Nothing Seek, Nothing Find

Was the timing of 3G OK? What are we looking for? The Subscribing Customer !? Ultimate ubiquity and Intimate Utility Flexibility of Implemented Solutions Adequate Coverage and reach How can we reach Guaranteed Service Quality Is there better than WAP? Or… Shall we position GPRS as the 3-times faster WAP? Multi-media Messaging will follow up SMS to be the

major driver for person-to-person communications Experience gained with GPRS applications today 3G is optimised for offering services in the IP world



Blasting the Boarders between

telco’s, cellco’s, cableco’s & ISP’s

In future, there will be only space on earth and air for a handful Full Service Communication Providers.


Mend or End

In future, only Full Service Communication Providers will survive.

Only 10 of worlds Incumbents will survive when converged communication goes global.

More mobiles than Subscribers mean that the customer wants to switch more networks; the Italian trend of multiple SIM’s per user confirms that opinion.

In future, the device will be users individual terminal to different networks, machines and systems. Sophistic Providers will succeed. Lazy Providers will end.



Lurkers versus Leaders

What is your Mission? Mission Control?Mission Vision?Mission Missed?


Might is Right VHS proved that not the Best System wins, but

the most aggressive Marketing. WAP proves that simple GPRS and EDGE will lose

when the aggressive Marketing of UMTS starts.The success of i-Mode is not only the Japanese

culture of simple picture- and game loading but also the technical basement: i-Mode uses HTTP in a ‘always on’ packet switched transmission, HTML in a simple version and many Icons for operating. The disaster of WAP proves that WDP, WML and key operating aren’t customers choice.

UMTS only succeeds when it follows the customers basic needs and necessaries.


Customers Culture Shock

Volume growth, Distributed live and Just-in-time economy force a change of the users culture.

The old physical Stream-Thinking changed to new Network-transaction Thinking.

Information on one moving document changed to Information, anywhere and anytime, for anyone.

Agents, Dealers and Suppliers are upgraded from stock holders and distributors to opinion holders and consultants of knowledge intensive products.

New marketing mix of product, promotion, price, privacy and protection.

Customer databases in each enterprise will be transformed to self-tuning databases, when the customer makes his/hers profile available.


3G’s threat to traditional banks, billers, binders and

brokers

The Boundaries between the Cellco and local Banks, Billers and Barbers change incredible when the Operator comes very nearby them, using the Location Based Services, the micro and macro Mobile Payment and Personalized Consumer Tuning.


Location Based Services

Most operators does not realize what the potential of this new service is.

Most vendors are only looking to their own propriety equipment and applications.

A large chance that – the same with SMS – others will set up this new service and the operator gets only some revenues of the airtime / traffic.

Look to the consumers behaviour: his/hers local view and interest.

Look to the link between marketing-tools, locational services and mobile payments. (see, buy and pay!)

Look also to the link between automotive-services, locational services and the residential services.


Mobile payments as revenues

Less than 10% of mobile users want mobile payment

Only young, well-educated, male technology enthusiasts

Short-term revenues (2001-2005):

• Messaging & Notification (sending images and tunes)

• Location based services

• Mobile Content payment

Middle term revenues (2005-2009):

• Personal tuning of services

• Automotive services (‘the second home’)

• mPDA services (e.g. stock-refill)


Mobile payments as revenues

Long-term revenues (after 2008):

• Integrated Mobile lifestyle services

• Full secured Micro and macro payments

• Software downloads; remote devise management

Main reasons to accept mobile payment services:

• For high-income, career-motivated optimists (m:35jr): like timesaving technologies: extra personal time

• For low-income, career-motivated optimists (m/f:27jr): like new gadgets that resemble and impress his peers

• For entertainment-motivated optimists (SMS-users): like to add some fun to your day (and buy more)


Free mobile…

How can you expect that a consumer do pay for a new mobile?

Getting one (by subsidy) gives many profits: it’s a new, latest model; it’s for free, and it has a new number (so it leaves spam behind you).


The Next Gen Bonus Benefits

We learned our Kids to continuous collect bonuses and items in your inventory as much as you can.

Is it unusual that they

now collect the same

mobile offers ?

Want next gen ?

Think next gen !

1980

2000


Trying too to tug together ?

Network (QoS)

Billing factory

Customer Care

Content integrators

Service development

Marketing

Etc.

Discovering a new world is not the same as backpacking your house, family and friends.

Is there any mobile operator who designed m-services themselves?


Enterpreneur or Entrepreneur

Mobile Operators should Host all regular processes, Collect all data and Concentrate on m-Business.

Are you an Entrepreneur, or are you doing m-business by pressing the ‘ENTER’ key?

Use the strategic information of your network and backoffice, like traffic, usage, payment, location, et cetera, to design and (let) develop new services, to follow the market.


Share, Shame or Shape a Bank?

Operators start already with partnering for: SMS-services Antenna (site- and antenna-sharing) Networks (only the non-intelligent equipment) Security Location based services

Mobile PaymentsAre you joining colleague operators in buying your e-Bank ?, … Is one of the Banks your next Partner ?, or do you shame your Bank for the transaction fees ?


Tit for Tat See the boarders

between banks, e-banks, i-banks, cellco’s and venture capitalists

Banks will only survive with e-/ i-transactions

Cellco’s will only survive with forward loans and investments of the banks.

Take your part !!

Micropayments <10 Euro

Macropayments>10<1000Forwardpayme

nts


No Pay, No Play ?

A Customer wants playing before paying, at least paying during playing

Cellco, service provider and content-holder want paying before playing

Customers Loyalty is generated by good contact and fulfilment of needs and let the customer feeling safe in the environment

Investments in the Customers Relation will be honored by trust in the relation.

Investments in Customer Relation Building will be honored by capital venturist’s trust.


Do anyone know the consumer ?

The customer knows you.

He or she is looking for a relationship… like a consistent and familiar place, with a simple and intuitive control of all personalized services, tailored to him or her.

Know your customer as your consumer:

Be straightforward, honest, dynamic, simple and refreshing. So your customer could trust you!


The Hour of Power

Mobile information needs are based on Mazlov’s fundamentals of fulfilment of needs and feeling safe in the environment of – Family and friends – Community, clubs and tribes– Employment

Mobile information needs are inextricable bound with the context of– Location– Event/moment– Personal needs


Look before You LeapMobile information basic needs are life

services, such as

– automatic updated personal directory

– voice controlled scheduler

– actual traffic & transport information

– headlines of financial and banking info

– sports & lifestyle

– news, weather & public scandals

– entertainment, managed by the user

– shame & blame


Show the company team spirit to the consumers

Every year a take-over, fusion, rebranding et cetera does not give good feelings to the consumers. They think they pay for that corporate rubbish.

At least they will expect that again and again labours will be fired and executives will become rich by getting options.

Be a strong team. Show that team. Like A-TEAM. Customer Care is only 100% OK when none of the

subscribers complains about the bill anymore. And if you are a CEO… handle your company as

your child.


Examining the Cummy Cutters and Tummy Tuckers

Handle a company as your child. Reorganisation and Redesign of enterprises are

mostly arranged and leaded by cost cutters, using a sharp knife or slicer to cut out all exorbitant costs.

Most of the cutters don’t have any feeling for the cultural basement of an enterprise, and leave the wounded company with a gash behind. The best employees are gone, the lessers are demotivated.

After that process a tycoon is hunted to get the bloody organization on track in the right direction.

Tummy tucking will be Better for the Restart of a company, because only the extra fat is cutted-out. After the operation the wound is invisible stitched and the employees could be proud on their new face and image.


New Bricks, Old Clicks A Cumulating Cutter won’t look to integration with

multimedia and broadcast, unless that is cheaper. A Tummy Tucker will see that future as a Redesign of the company.

Messages, Notifications, Targetgroup Broadcasting, Audio- and Video-on-demand, Personalized Data, Software downloading, … all new services, but from different backgrounds and disciplines.

Still, 85% of all traffic is voice. Mobile operators does not have any experience with interactive television, live radio or multi-played games.

Implementation of Television and Internet is a difficult task. Video on demand is out of scope, caused by a lack of standards and bandwidth.

Who wants to decide about one standard out of HAVi, UPnP, DVB-MHP, OSGI or Open TV?


Tricky Terminals contra Nasty Networks

Till better times, be clear about congestion. Devices are getting smarter in their user-

interface, but stay dummy as Network-Terminal.They simulate being smart in connecting too, but aren’t. That’s tricky for users imagination and mobile’s goodwill.

Mobile and “passed” Fixed Networks are getting more and more heavily used, are sometimes bad managed and have a lot of connection failures. Be clear about that. Use bonuses for avoiding the rush hours.


Customers Expectations and Customers Loyalty

Understand, promise, deliver and care

Living and merchandizing in a world of (r)evolution

Some figures…



Age / % of expectations in mobile technology



Short time Market view: Customers Attention to 3G

To early launching is waste of money.


Made by Vendors

To be or not to be ?… that’s no question for marketers

Finally β Developed by Researchers

Made by Vendors

Expected by Consumers

Innovation / pilot

Time

Expec Expec tation tation pushpush

Range of Range of lesser ac- lesser ac- ceptanceceptance


Loyalty Building Process Incorporates Behaviors And

Attitudes

Loya

lty in

crea

ses

Banner ad promptsa visit

Customer feels otherswould benefit from a similarlypositive experience

Increased use of the siteleads to personalization, making it harder to defect

Customer believes thatthe product will be deliveredin a timely fashion

Customer values relationshipso much that she ignores

competitors’ better prices

Well-designed site createsa positive experienceVisit

Willingness tobe inconvenienced

Refer

Personalinvestment

Act

Trust

Behaviors and attitudes reinforce each other to grow loyalty

Source: Forrester


Loyalty Building Process Incorporates Behaviors And Attitudes

Visit:Customer returns to a company’s store or site

Act:Customer does something at the company’s store or site

Refer:Customer advocates a company

Trust:Customer places confidencein a company

Willingness to beinconvenienced:Customer pays or goes outof way to use the company

Personal investment:Customer integrates company into her life

• Comes back to shop again• Accesses company through multiple channels

• Purchases• Registers • Signs up for emails • Personalizes the site• Tells others• Forwards content or suggests purchases via email

• Believes in company• Feels transactions areprotected

• Feels connected to company• Prefers company tocompetitors

• Would drive farther or pay more to use company

Examples

• Track repeat visits and click-throughs with cookies or tools like WebTrends

• Track purchases with CRM tools• In lieu of CRM, use “virtual points” by Netcentives to track online behavior

• Track referrals with viral marketing software from Kefta or recommendations with

Epinions

Offline tools:• Attitudes measured primarilyoffline with recall andsatisfaction studies

Online tools:• Administer electronic surveys from Satmetrix• Conduct recall studies withDoubleClick’s Diameter service

to measure brand affinity andsatisfaction

RecommendationsIndicators

Behaviors and attitudes indicate loyalty

Source: Forrester


Promotions Tools Help Change Behaviors And Attitudes

Sweepstakes

Coupons

Inspire nonpurchase behaviors like registration, referrals, and using morecontent

Provide incentivesfor more expensive orcross-channel purchases

Discounts

Membershipprograms

Rewards for purchaseand nonpurchase behavior

Encouragesincremental purchases

Promotion Behaviors andattitudes influenced

Vendors

Source: Forrester


Loyalty Data Helps Prospect, Retain, And Win Back

Customers

Customer data

Prospect marketing Retention marketing Win-back efforts

Encourage key behaviorsto build a base for the loyalty process

Identify and addresswarning signs early

Highlight key productand service offerings

What behaviors andattitudes did more-loyalcustomers exhibit as

prospects?

(e.g., registration with complimentary retailers)

What behaviors andattitudes did defectorsexhibit before they left?

(e.g., decrease in frequencyof site visits)

When customers come back, what behaviors

and attitudes do they develop again?

(e.g., first time back, they check return policies)

Source: Forrester


• The evolution of the communications market beyond the introduction of 3G

Mazlov’s Marketing


Societies develop when people reach a particular high level in Maslow's hierarchy. Once people meet their physiological needs and they feel safe, they begin to develop a culture and advanced civilization. Then they are open to handy services.

Self-actualization is no fame or fortune. Wealthy, honoured, or celebrated people might reach self-actualization, but most people who have reached highest level of happiness are unknown beyond their circle of family, friends & community.


Coverage, Connectivity, Customer Service

Convenience & Confidence

Convergence

Ease of Use

Free

Lo

ve S

afe

ty

The Battle between Technology, Marketing and Reality

Sel

f

Act

ua-

liza

tion

Este

emPhysi

olo

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Maslow

communitcommunityy

MAR

KETI

NG

PUSH

MAR

KETI

NG

PUSH




Convergence

Ease of Use

Free

Lo

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afe

ty

2005

2001

2010

Any time implantate

Sel

f

Act

ua-

liza

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Este

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Maslow





Convergence

Ease of Use

Free

Ignori

ng

Wit

hdra

wal


2005

2001

2010

Any time implantate

Ego-

trip

pin

g

Shifting

Regre

ssio

n

Kokswijk

The fall into ignoring




Convergence

Ease of Use

Free


2005

2001

2010

Any time implantate Any where, Any way

Psychiological Basic Needs

Safety

Love

Esteem

Selfactualisation


TRENDs: High End mobile users like services to handle ‘things I hate to do’ and to help with ‘things I always do wrong’. Early Adopters like services to tune on ‘things I like’ and to handle ‘things I do’nt like to do now’.

4 trendy targetgroups to better tryout smart 4 trendy targetgroups to better tryout smart learning personalizing services:learning personalizing services:

• Clever Kids to swab ‘my own fone’

• Happy Hub for clubs & communities,for sports fanatics & tribes

• Seeking Seniors as Grazing Grannies

• Bionic Buddy for the Towing Teeners

.


• The evolution of the communications market beyond the introduction of 3G

3g’s Gambling Gadget Gun

Don’t launch unproved technology to early…

DoCoMo’s slogan “The Future is Now” is now accepted by the Japanese like one of NTT’s gadgets…


3g’s Gambling Gadget Gun

In the rush to find a killer app, almost every creative starts a content company.

In the uncertainty to run a mobile operator in these bad times, almost every manager starts and stops et cetera new initiatives.

Gadgets are OK, but providing games and gadgets have to be embedded in your business process and network, to be successful in a continuous changing world.


• The evolution of the communications market beyond the introduction of 3GThe threat of the

Digital Broadcasters After Eutelsat and SES/Astra, the new Digital Broadcast Ter. Satellites are soon licensed to provide Europe a converge of multicasting, multimedia and telecom.Nokia’s mediascreen, GSM uplink; 5 mB DVBT

downlink


Next year in many European countries the licences for Terrestrial Digital Audio (TDAB) and Video (DVB-T) Broadcasting are provided by mostly a beauty contest.

With an upstream by e.g. GSM, free channels could be used for a 5 mB downstream of cartographic maps, live music, movies and games (with 3d-images).

Nationwide coverage has already to be build for broadcast purposes and is 20% of the costs of an UMTS network.

Why should a consumer waits for 3G ?

The threat of the Digital Broadcasters


DVB-T is Always On, high power, downstream 5 – 31 mB A sub-service of the Broadcast Companies Licensed by beauty contests in most countries Internet access via TV antenna for fixed and mobile Simple to realize and more efficient than UMTS Excellent and fast distribution of large files Supplementary to GSM and GPRS Much faster to set up a Euro nation wide coverage Not suitable for synchronized voice communication The End of the Single Service Mobile Providers.

The threat of the Digital Broadcasters


The Future of Mobile Communications Operation Match for the

Operating Systems

To avoid crashes and reboots, focus on the better operating systems. Match them. At least, try to get one platform to manage.


• The Future of Mobile Communications Operation Match for the

Operating SystemsSolaris passes for really professional use Microsoft's component based NT/Win2K.

Linux gives management problems with all those .rpm’s AND a slow file system.

Challenges grow for Wind-river systems (VxWorks), especially for embedded integrators.

Sun’s Java has good tools to develop, like a perfect memory leak detector and access checker, but the develop tools are too expensive to expanse this OS to a common platform.

For PDA’s a continuing fight exist between MS Windows CE, Epoc and Palm’s OS.


Achieving real convergence through designing a multi-

sense portal for 3G operators and service providers

The evolution of the mobile PDA’s


• Achieving real convergence through designing a multi-sense portal for

3G operators and service providersReturn of the Pick Panther,

(r)evolution in network design

prepaid

prepaid

postpaid

Networks, fixed, wireless, others

Portals ContentCash-/

coffeemachine Game-console, Secure Operator-terminal e.g.

prepaid

fixed

cable

Individual owned

Portals Content

mPDA postpaid



3G operators and service providersSwoop Separate Senses

Marketing shouts:

“Accessibility of Anyplace, Anytime to Everything.”

and

“Spontaneous Use and Low Barrier to Entry of Global, Wireless, Interoperable, Broadband Networks.”

That is not so easy made as you think….


THINGS TO THINK ABOUT

Accessibility Anyplace, Anytime to Everything.

Spontaneous Use and Low Barrier to Entry of Global, Wireless, Interoperable, Broadband Networks.

Connected Process Design Multi-protocol Integration Multi-terminal Integration Multi-sense Integration Chained security Integrate & Operate Exchanges Assimilation to open software, like Java


THINGS TO THINK ABOUT



Local Privacy rules and habits Global means not uniform, neither unisex Adapting to cultures, habits, languages and

currencies Confirmation to local rules, standards, measures

and laws Adjusting to communities and human trends Fit easily to sexes, ages and regular handicaps Fine-tuning to individual needs and preferences




The multi-terminal environment requires a constant re-purposing of applicationsand content

The end-user experience must be integral: a personalized and centralized data and transaction environment that can be accessed from any device

The end-user experience must be integral: a personalized and centralized data and transaction environment that can be accessed from any device

Wireline

Wireless

XML

Stylesheet

Business Logic PresentationData

The multi-terminal environment requires a constant re-purposing of applications and content



3G operators and service providersConvergence as Cash Cow

Mobile Makes Your Live Easy

Think about convergence as service…

Such as directory services, presentation of caller’s name in display, in stead of nr.

Et cetera


Icons! No Names or Numbers

Human learned tones and icones first; Navigating is easier with names than by

numbers; ICANN: mobile-name = number-rows; Forrester: each time pressing a key to a

service will halve the number of users; Converge-Portals like Bango.net will be

temporary; Gartner: mPDA’s will soon organize the users connections and supply the URL directory function.


Towards the mobile as underwear... The Future of

Mobile Communications

There is lot of new technology, some of them are really scaring…

But remind that the consumer expects safety and security first. Customer Care as second.


Dear or Fear

By combining EMG and EEG-brain signals, one day we might attain something similar to silent speech recognition.

Neuro electric technology uses, might include control of advanced robotic manipulators and exoskeletons, enabling silent speech "synthetic telepathy" with machines. Using the same powerful pattern recognition techniques to include brain signals.

see demo on www.nasa.gov/


Speak or Leak

Voice Portals are slown down. The human voice as browser has not been attractive enough to realize a separate world of Voice Portals. Best chances for Nuance (by Marketing) and Philips (by Technology).

Voice recognition technology is still developed and getting better. Next generations also integrate grammar- and summarizing techniques.

Handwriting recognition techniques are developed also continuously, e.g. at Samsung, Sony and in Scandinavian lab’s.

Iris and Fingerprint verification technology booms in Japan, US and Europe, to be the winner in the Security Race for UMTS and Safe Internet.

In 2013 a Robot will achieve the same number of neurons at a human being.


Tricks and Trends

Hobby hopping is a new consumers trend. You need to understand those trends. It’s entertainment, like adventure games. Also the same with new messaging… All those hypes could only be profitable for

the mobile operators, if they: - open their networks at maximum for young

entrepreneurs against a profit-percentage;Or - change their organisation and processes

dramatically to be able to follow the market


• Towards the mobile as underwear... The Future of Mobile Communications

The Bionic Buddy as Universal Human-Machine Interface

mobile

fixed

cable

Individual ownedIndividual owned mPDAmPDA

Portals Content

Personal Default Tuning and Security box Terminal to operate machines, PC’s, etc. Console for games and Entertainment

Residential Automotive

CombinationOf Bluetooth,Wireless LAN and GPRS


All Humans are Different

So… all Mobile Consumers are So… all Mobile Consumers are differentdifferent !


The Last Lesson

You promised the consumer ‘anytime, anywhere, anyway, anyhow’ et cetera.

But you can’t deliver that for years!

Say Sorry to the Customer.

And make on G2+ all other features you promised too. You can enhance those when –

in about 4 to 5 years – G3 is ready.

In the mean time, listen to consumer, get some confidence, and the next time you

deliver what you promise.


Cap Gemini Ernst & Young is a leading consulting and IT

services companyOur credentialsOur credentials

Around 60,000 specialized people

Full local capability with global reach

Account-centric organization Sector know-how From strategy to outsourcing Integrated offerings

Around 60,000 specialized people

Full local capability with global reach

Account-centric organization Sector know-how From strategy to outsourcing Integrated offerings

Our differencesOur differences

A truly multicultural group

Our thinking is not dominated by a single country (or continent) perspective

We equally master strategy AND technology

Both are needed to win in the network economy

Single-minded focus on delivery

OTACE - On Time and Above Client Expectations

Only published delivery track record

A truly multicultural group

Our thinking is not dominated by a single country (or continent) perspective

We equally master strategy AND technology

Both are needed to win in the network economy

Single-minded focus on delivery

OTACE - On Time and Above Client Expectations

Only published delivery track record


Cap Gemini Ernst & Young delivers a complete and integrated

set of servicesStrategy

Consulting

BusinessSolutions

Consulting Technology Operate

Application MgtInfrastructure MgtBus. Process Mgt

Tech Consulting

Advanced Development &

Integration

Strategy & Transformation

Customer Relationship Management

Supply Chain Management

Support Services

Extended Enterprise Applications/ERP

Network Integration Solutions

B2B Marketplaces, DareStep (User-Centered Solutions), m-Commerce


Cisco joint venture enhance our ability to provide end-to-end client solutions

TELECOMMEDIA

NETWORKS

7,000 systems integration and management

consulting experts worldwide focused on

communications consulting & integration

Americas

Asia Pacific

Benelux

Germany

Nordic

UK

France

S. Europe

En

erg

y &

Uti

liti

es

Fia

nc

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Se

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Lif

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& C

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mic

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Ma

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turi

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Hig

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ec

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Co

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Po

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, re

tail

& D

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Hig

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ine

ss


Leadership PositionLeadership Position

The E&Y merger makes us one of the world’s largest business consulting and systems integrators for communications

Globa reach, with over thirty locations in the US, Europe, and Asia

Revenues (2000) approaching 1.4 billion euros

Over 30% growth annually over past 5 years

Dedicated pre-packaged solutions

Almost 7,000 dedicated systems integration and management consultants

The E&Y merger makes us one of the world’s largest business consulting and systems integrators for communications

Globa reach, with over thirty locations in the US, Europe, and Asia

Revenues (2000) approaching 1.4 billion euros

Over 30% growth annually over past 5 years

Dedicated pre-packaged solutions

Almost 7,000 dedicated systems integration and management consultants

Long-term Commitment to the IndustryLong-term Commitment to the Industry

30-year track record in the communications industry

Serving 80% of the world’s top fifty communications companies

Over 2,400 projects delivered worldwide to wireline, wireless, ISPs, IXCs, and broadcast operators

Nine R&D and innovation labs (Atherton, Boston, Dallas, Paris, London, Munich, Singapore, and Utrecht).

Broad portfolio of partners

30-year track record in the communications industry

Serving 80% of the world’s top fifty communications companies

Over 2,400 projects delivered worldwide to wireline, wireless, ISPs, IXCs, and broadcast operators

Nine R&D and innovation labs (Atherton, Boston, Dallas, Paris, London, Munich, Singapore, and Utrecht).

Broad portfolio of partners

TELECOM MEDIA NETWORKS (TMN) is an established global leader


TELECOM MEDIA NETWORKS combines geographical reach with

capabilities breadth

StrategicBusiness

Consulting

StrategicBusiness

Consulting

AMERICASAMERICAS CENTRALEUROPE

CENTRALEUROPE

ASIAPACIFIC ASIA

PACIFIC BENELUXBENELUX

FRANCE FRANCE UK UK NORDIC NORDIC SOUTHEUROPESOUTH

EUROPE

NetworkInfra-

structureSolutions

NetworkInfra-

structureSolutions

TMNTMN

GlobalBusiness

Development

GlobalBusiness

Development


Our Specialty Services Lines serves all content and transport

players process and systems areas

ContentContent Digital

Content Management

Digital Content

Management eServices eServices Operation

Support

Operation Support

Billing & Customer Admin.

Billing & Customer Admin.



CustomersCustomers

Production Edition Storage Distribution Rights

Management

Portals Content

aggregation Interactive

services Directories Messaging

Service fulfillment

Service Assurance

Pricing Collection Rating Invoicing Payment

Contact centers

One-to-one marketing

Self care

Network Infrastructure

Network Infrastructure

Design Build Operate

3G Mobile

Broadband

Media


Solution Sets are the go-to-market components of the Service

LinesSTRATEGYSTRATEGY CRMCRM BILLINGBILLING OSSOSS E-SERVICESE-SERVICES DIGITAL

CONTENT

DIGITAL CONTENT

NETWORKING & OPERATIONS

NETWORKING & OPERATIONS

NETWORK GAP ANLAYSIS

NOCIN-A-BOX

METASOLVIMPLEMENT.

Example of Solutions

WAP/GPRS BILLING.

TELCO-IN-A-BOX

ADVANCED CALL CENTRE

SELF-CARE

CLEC LAUNCH

KENAN-CLARIFY BSS

IPVPN MGT

xDSL MGT

BROADBAND CABLE MGT

GPRS/UMTSMGT

UNIFIED COMMUNICATIONS

PORTAL-TO-GO IMPLEMNT.

3G STRATEGY3G LAUNCH


The Alliance portfolio encompasses major application areas

Services& Products

OperationsSupport

Customer Services

ServiceActivation

ProvisioningService

Management NetworkSurveillance

Interconnect

Wholesale

HumanResources

ITManagement

Service Quality

CustomerRelationshipManagement

Enterprise

On-lineInformation

Services

Fraud

CustomerAcquisition

CustomerRetention

Billing Product Catalog

Business Intelligence

Billing Data Collection

Networks

Billing &CustomerAdmin.

Customers

Customer Communication Interface

Accounting

EnhancedVoice/DataServices

Sales


WIRELESS

ISPMEDIA

WIRELINE

We serve 80% of the top 50 telecoms and media players world-

wide


No m-system without integrators

No e-business without strategics

No i-forecasting without analysts

No m-system without integrators

No e-business without strategics

No c-vision without imagineersNo i-forecasting without analysts

No c-vision without imagineers


`

[email protected]

Thank U

nice 3g2001 – 23-05-01 / mobile future / jvk – sba4 a triptych in thirdg 1

Documents

g legs

annual 3g2001 nice

g value chain slide

innovation slide

g market misunderstandings

g mazlov misunderstandings

g success story