ni labour market december 2012

Northern Ireland Labour Market Update

Issued 14th December 2012

Richard Ramsey

Chief Economist Northern Ireland

[email protected]

Workforce JobsEmployee Jobs + Government Supported

Trainees + Self-employed

54,700 fewer workforce jobs in June 2012 relative to June 2008 – a fall of 6.4% (only updated annually)

NI Workforce in Employment Jobs (Employee Jobs + Self Employment + Govt supported trainees)

803.4k

858.1k

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: DFP, jobs in June of each year

13,500 fewer self-employed jobs in June 2012 relative to June 2008 – a fall of 11% (only updated annually in Sept)

NI Self-Employment Jobs

108.6k122.1k

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: DFP, jobs in June of each year

NI has not experienced the jobs recovery that has occurred within the UK (only updated annually in September)

NI & UK Workforce Jobs Annual % Growth

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Y/Y

NI UK

Source: DFP & NOMIS, jobs in June of each year

UK workforce jobs are just 0.5% below their June 2008 peak whereas NI has not recouped any of its job losses

NI & UK Workforce Jobs (as of June 2012)

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

June 2008 Peak to Trough Recovery from Trough Net Position Relative toJune 2008 Peak

NI UK

Source: DFP & NOMIS, June annual figures

Quarterly Employment Survey (QES)

QES is an employer survey (@ 5,500 companies) that measures the actual number of jobs (employees in

employment) as opposed to the number of individuals in employment (as in the Labour Force Survey). The QES

excludes the self-employed but is the preferred measure of employment within Northern Ireland

Summary Table – Quarterly Employment SurveyConstruction Services Manufacturing Total

2007 Q1 43,460 567,150 83,850 715,510

Q2 44,710 571,050 84,100 720,750

Q3 45,320 575,090 83,960 725,440

Q4 46,820 578,950 83,440 729,380

2008 Q1 45,860 582,910 83,710 732,620

Q2 44,860 584,430 83,390 733,050

Q3 43,500 581,240 82,260 727,440

Q4 41,670 579,670 80,080 721,460

2009 Q1 39,420 577,660 78,180 715,220

Q2 38,210 576,980 75,340 710,440

Q3 36,780 577,460 74,070 708,110

Q4 37,120 581,210 73,280 711,430

2010 Q1 36,960 579,640 73,070 709,510

Q2 36,200 578,950 73,090 707,870

Q3 35,790 576,290 73,010 704,890

Q4 33,610 573,890 73,790 701,120

2011 Q1 33,370 573,040 73,590 699,840

Q2 32,780 570,620 73,510 697,180,Q3 32,930 569,150 73,850 695,930

Q4 31,640 565,050 75,420 691,900

2012 Q1 31,460 564,910 74,680 690,850

Q2 31,320 565,590 75,360 692,190

Q3 31,010 566,220 75,360 692,460

Latest Quarter Q/Q % Change ‐1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Latest Quarter Y/Y % Change ‐5.8% ‐0.5% 2.0% ‐0.5%

Fall from peak ‐ Nos* ‐15,810 ‐18,210 ‐8,740 ‐40,590

Fall from peak % Change* ‐33.8% ‐3.1% ‐10.4% ‐5.5%

Northern Ireland Employees Jobs (Seasonally Adjusted)

Source: DFP, **Peak to trough fall does not strictly use comparable data and is indicative only

DISCONTINUITY IN DATA SERIES DISCONTINUITY IN DATA SERIES↑ Old Series ↑

↓ New Series ↓ ↓ New Series ↓

NI posts second quarterly rise since Q2 2008 in Q3 2012 (Q4 2009 represents start of new series & therefore not a Q/Q rise)

NI Employee Jobs Quarterly ChangeExcludes self-employed

270

1,340

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

Q32007

Q12008

Q32008

Q12009

Q32009

Q12010

Q32010

Q12011

Q32011

Q12012

Q32012

Nos

Source: DFP

Discontinuity in Series

24,940 20,580

Current employment levels back at late 2004 levels

Northern Ireland Employee Jobs

692,460

613,250 Q2 1998

733,050

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

Q1 1993 Q3 1995 Q1 1998 Q3 2000 Q1 2003 Q3 2005 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q3 2012

Source: DFP


Service sector: 2 successive quarters of modest growth

NI Services Employee Jobs Quarterly ChangeExcludes self-employed

630680

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

Q32007

Q12008

Q32008

Q12009

Q32009

Q12010

Q32010

Q12011

Q32011

Q12012

Q32012

Nos

Source: DFP


-7,450 -16,300

Service sector employment is back to late 2006 / early 2007 levels

Northern Ireland Services Employee Jobs

Q2 1998454,990

566,220

584,430

375,000

425,000

475,000

525,000

575,000

625,000

Q1 1993 Q1 1997 Q1 2001 Q1 2005 Q1 2009 Q3 2012

Source: DFP


Manufacturing employment unchanged in Q3NI Manufacturing Employee Jobs

Quarterly Change (Excludes self-employed)

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Q32007

Q12008

Q32008

Q12009

Q32009

Q12010

Q32010

Q12011

Q32011

Q12012

Q32012

Nos

Source: DFP


-9,640

Recent manufacturing employment gains are within a longer-term trend of job losses

NI Manufacturing Employee Jobs Levels

104,940 (Q3 1998 just after GFA)

75,360

84,100Q2 2007

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

Q1 1993 Q3 1995 Q1 1998 Q3 2000 Q1 2003 Q3 2005 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q3 2012

Source: DFP


Construction sector has witnessed employment declines in 17 of the last 18 quarters

NI Construction Employee Jobs Quarterly Change (Excludes self-employed)

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Q12007

Q32007

Q12008

Q32008

Q12009

Q32009

Q12010

Q32010

Q12011

Q32011

Q12012

Q32012

Nos

Source: DFP


-10,040-6,110

Construction employment back to 1999 levels

NI Construction Employee Jobs Levels

31,010

46,820

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Q1 1993 Q3 1995 Q1 1998 Q3 2000 Q1 2003 Q3 2005 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q3 2012

Source: DFP, QES


Back to 1999 levels

Northern Ireland’s Job losses, recovery and

current (net) position 2007/08-2012

No meaningful jobs recovery outside of manufacturing

Northern Ireland Employment (Employee Jobs)

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

All Sectors Services Manufacturing Construction

Peak to Trough Recovery from Trough Q3 2012 Relative to Peak

Source: DFP, QES

Utilities post largest annual % gain with manufacturing the largest numerical gain

Construction / property related


Utilities, manufacturing

& tourism related sectors

Broad Industrial Group Net Job Change % Change

Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply 140 10.9%

Arts, entertainment & recreation 1,250 9.0%

Administrative & support service activities 1,160 2.8%

Professional, scientific & technical activities 1,120 2.8%

Manufacturing 1,490 2.0%

Accomodation & food service activities 360 0.9%

Real estate activities 60 0.8%

Transport & storage 10 0.0%

Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles ‐330 ‐0.3%

Agriculture, forestry & fishing ‐120 ‐1.0%

Other service activities ‐150 ‐1.1%

Education ‐940 ‐1.4%

Human health & social work activities ‐1,930 ‐1.6%

Information & communication ‐280 ‐1.7%

Public administration & defence; social security ‐960 ‐1.7%

Mining & quarrying ‐30 ‐1.8%

Water supply, sewerage, waste management ‐120 ‐2.5%

Construction ‐1,920 ‐5.8%

Financial & insurance activities ‐1,610 ‐7.9%

Total ‐3,290 ‐0.5%

Source: DFP ‐ Quarterly Employment Survey (Seasonally Unadjusted), Excludes self‐employed

Northern Ireland Employment Change (Ranked by % change)September 2011 ‐ September 2012

Utilities, manufacturing

& tourism related sectors

Property related sectors & manufacturing have seen the biggest job losses over the last 4 years



UtilitiesUtilities

Broad Industrial Group Net Job Change % Change

Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply 230 19.3%

Real estate activities 730 11.2%

Arts, entertainment & recreation 1,360 9.8%

Human health & social work activities 590 0.5%

Other service activities 30 0.2%

Education ‐250 ‐0.4%

Agriculture, forestry & fishing ‐150 ‐1.2%

Professional, scientific & technical activities ‐400 ‐1.7%

Information & communication ‐280 ‐1.7%

Water supply, sewerage, waste management ‐180 ‐3.7%

Administrative & support service activities ‐1,610 ‐3.7%

Accommodation & food service activities ‐1,980 ‐4.5%

Public administration & defence; social security ‐2,640 ‐4.5%

Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles ‐6,940 ‐5.4%

Transport & storage ‐1,390 ‐5.4%

Financial & insurance activities ‐1,360 ‐6.8%

Manufacturing ‐7,060 ‐8.6%

Mining & quarrying ‐470 ‐22.0%

Construction ‐12,490 ‐28.7%

Total ‐34,260 ‐4.7%

Source: DFP ‐ Quarterly Employment Survey (Seasonally Unadjusted), Excludes self‐employed

Northern Ireland Employment Change (Ranked by % change)September 2008 ‐ September 2012

Northern Ireland’s ‘Employment Recessions’ & Recoveries Compared

1980s

1990s

2008-2012

Longest period of job losses but not as deep as the 1980s. But returning to peak is likely to take longer than 1980s (10yrs)

NI Employee Jobs Recessions / Recoveries Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100

1980s10yrs after downturn

employment returns to peak

1990s10yrs after peak

employment rose by 19%

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Peak 1 year 2yrs 3yrs 4yrs 5yrs 6yrs 7yrs 8yrs 9yrs 10yrsTime Since Pre-Recession Peak

Index

1980s 1990s 2008-2012

Employment troughed (-7.5%)13 quarters after 1979 Q4 peak & was 7.0% below peak

after 17 quarters

2008-201215 quarters of decline before rise in 16th quarter.17 quarters after 2008 Q2 peak NI jobs have fallen by 5.5% as of Q3 2012 Q2

In 1990 UK recession, NI employment fell slightly & troughed 2 years after the

pre-recession peak

Source: DFP & UB Calculations

Manufacturing job losses have been nowhere near what they were like in the 1980s but recovery may be similar

NI Manufacturing Recessions & Recoveries in Employee Jobs (Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100)

21 quarters after Q2 1979 peak employment was 26%

lower

2.3% below Q3 1990 peak after 21 quarters

10.4% decline 21 quarters after Q2 2007 peak

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


Index

1980s 1990s 2007-2012


Construction is experiencing the fastest & deepest recession in terms of job losses. A 1980s-style recovery is expected

NI Construction Recessions & Recoveries Compared (Employee Jobs Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100)

Peak 1979 Q2

Peak 1990 Q3

2007Q4 - 2012 Q360

70

80

90

100

110

120

130


Index

1980s 1990s 2007- 2012

Source: DFP & UB calculations

Current recession has seen construction employment fall by one third in 4 years. In the 1980s it took over 7

years to for employment to fall by a similar margin

Service sector is experiencing its longest & deepest recession. Unfortunately recovery will be weaker than 1980s

NI Service Sector Recoveries in Employee JobsPre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100

+15% rise in 10 years

+27% rise in 10yrs

Peak 2008 Q1

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130


Index

1980s 1990s 2008-2012

Current recession is the longest and deepest recession to date. 17 quarters on employment still

3.1% below peak

1990s: NI lacked a developed private services sector which explains lack of job

losses in early 1990s UK recession


1980s: 17 quarters after employment peak service sector employment was almost 3%

above pre-recession peak

NI Public Sector v Private Sector Employment Levels

& Growth

Headline public & private sector growth rates are misleading due to reclassification of some institutions as public sector

NI Public v Private Sector Employment Growth

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Q31994

Q11996

Q31997

Q11999

Q32000

Q12002

Q32003

Q12005

Q32006

Q12008

Q32009

Q12011

Q32012

Public Private

Source: DFP

Job gains exaggerated as @5k jobs in financial institutions reclassified as public sector

Job losses exaggerated as @5k jobs in financial institutions moved

from private to public sector

Adjusting for the movement from private to public sector presents a slightly different picture

NI Public v Private Sector Employment Growth

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Q3 1994 Q3 1997 Q3 2000 Q3 2003 Q3 2006 Q3 2009 Q3 2012

Public* (excluding financial institutions)Private (incl. part-nationalised institutions)

Source: DFP, * Ulster Bank estimates

6

Private sector employment has stabilised.. But will it last?

NI Private Sector Employee Jobs

478,900

515,000

482,900

350,000

375,000

400,000

425,000

450,000

475,000

500,000

525,000

550,000

Q31994

Q31996

Q31998

Q32000

Q32002

Q32004

Q32006

Q32008

Q32010

Q32012

Private Sector Unadjusted for Financial Institutions reclassification

Private Sector Adjusted (incl. part-nationalised institutions)

Source: DFP & UB estimates

Good Friday Agreement

Signed April 1998418,170 Q2 1998

Public sector employment boom has been & gone. A sustained period of job losses is anticipated going forward

NI Public Sector Employee Jobs Levels

213,480

Pre-recession peak Q4 2005221,050

Good Friday Agreement Signed April 1998

195,120 Q2 98209,480

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

Q3 1994 Q3 1997 Q3 2000 Q3 2003 Q3 2006 Q3 2009 Q3 2012

Public Unadjusted Public Adjusted* (excl. financial institutions)

Source: DFP, * UB estimates

Public sector employment boosted by @5k in Q4 2008 as

part-nationalised financial institutions reclassified as

public sector. Public sector jobs (excl. financial institutions) now estimated at @209.5k or

Q4 2002 levels.

+26,000 jobs (13%) in 7yrs

post GFA

Private sector employment has fallen by an estimated 6.2% since peak with public sector down around 4.1%

NI Public & Private Sector Employment % Change Q2 2008 - Q3 2012

-10%

-9%

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

Headline PublicSector

Headline PrivateSector

Public Sector*(excl.part-nationalisedfinancial institutions)

Private Sector* (incl.part-nationalised

financial institutions)

Source: DFP & *UB Estimates

NI V UK Employment Performance

Employee Jobs

The UK posts growth in 3 of the last 4 quarters

NI v UK Quarterly Employment Growth (Employee Jobs)

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012

Q/Q

NI UK

Source: DFP & NOMIS

NI has not posted year-on-year employment growth since Q3 2008

All Employees Annual Employment Growth

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Q31982

Q21986

Q11990

Q41993

Q31997

Q22001

Q12005

Q42008

Q32012

Y/Y

NI UK

Source: DFP & NOMIS

NI outperformed the UK in the early 1990s but not now

NI/UK Divergence with employment recovery

Employment growth has been lacking in both NI & the UK construction sectors

NI v UK Construction Employment Growth Q/Q (Employee Jobs)

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012

Q/Q

NI UK

Source: DFP & NOMIS

NI’s construction sector experienced sharper rises and falls relative to the UK

Construction Annual Employment Growth Employee Jobs

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Q21983

Q31986

Q41989

Q11993

Q21996

Q31999

Q42002

Q12006

Q22009

Q32012

NI UK

Source: DFP & NOMIS


Both NI & UK manufacturing employment growth flat in Q3

NI v UK Manufacturing Employment Growth Q/Q (Employee Jobs)

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012

Q/Q

NI UK

Source: DFP & NOMIS

NI experienced a shallower employment recession in the 1980s relative to the UK. History has not repeated itself

NI & UK Manufacturing Annual Employment Growth

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

Q21983

Q31986

Q41989

Q11993

Q21996

Q31999

Q42002

Q12006

Q22009

Q32012

Y/Y

NI UK

Source: DFP & NOMIS

NI outperformed the UK in the early 1990s

but not in 2009

UK service sector has posted employment gains in 4 of the last 6 quarters, NI has managed just 2 quarters

NI v UK Services Quarterly Employment Growth (Employee Jobs)

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012

Q/Q

NI UK

Source: DFP & NOMIS

NI’s service sector diverged from the UK in the 1990s UK recession & is diverging in the current one too

Service Sector Annual Employment Growth

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Q2 1983 Q3 1990 Q4 1997 Q1 2005 Q2 2012

Y/Y

NI UK

Source: DFP & NOMIS


NI/UK Divergence with employment recovery

Apart from manufacturing, NI’s job losses have been more severe than in the UK

Employee Jobs Q3 2012 relative to recent peaks

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Construction Manufacturing Services Total

NI UK NI Peak Q4 2007

NI Peak Q2 2007

NI Peak Q2 2008 NI Peak Q2 2008

Source: DFP & NOMIS

NI & UK Employee Jobs Full-Time & Part-Time

Employment boom was predominantly part-time jobs while employment gloom is largely full-time

NI Annual Employment GrowthFull-Time & Part-Time Employee Jobs

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Sep-94 Sep-96 Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12

Y/Y

Full-Time Part-Time Total

Part-time employment growing at a much faster rate than full-time employment

Full-time employment falling at a much faster rate than part-time

More than twice as many full-time jobs lost as part-time

NI Employee Jobs Q3 2012 relative to recent peaks

-7.2%

-3.5%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Manufacturing Construction Services Total*

Full-Time Part-Time

…leading to a change in NI’s employment mix

% of NI Employee Jobs Full-Time v Part-Time

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

Sep-94 Sep-97 Sep-00 Sep-03 Sep-06 Sep-09 Sep-12

Full-Time Part-Time

Full-time employment's share of total employment is falling

Part-time employment's share of total employment is rising

Source: DFP

NI outperformed the UK in the boom but is underperforming in the recovery

NI & UK Full-Time Annual Employment Growth Employee Jobs

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%


Y/Y

UK NI

NI’s full-time employment back to 2004 levels

NI Full-time & Part-time Employee Jobs Indexed Q1 1998 = 100

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12

Index

FT PT

NI full-time employment back to 2004 levels

NI lags the UK in part-time employment growth too

NI & UK Part-Time Annual Employment Growth Employee Jobs

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%


Y/Y

UK NI

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

November 2012 Survey Update

Issued 10th December 2012

Richard Ramsey

Chief Economist Northern Ireland

[email protected]

PMI SurveysPurchasing Managers’

Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies

which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy

by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and

prices across different

sectors.

Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents

reporting an

improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to

100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above

50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or

deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater

the rate of change

(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted

to take into consideration

expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.

< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion

Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages

have been used to

more accurately identify the broad trends.

Northern Ireland’s rate of decline in employment levels eases sharply in November

Private Sector Employment LevelsMonthly

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12

NI UK RoI

Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

Job Gains

Job Losses

… all NI sectors post employment declines over last 3 months although manufacturing posts growth in November

NI PMI - Employment Index 3 month moving average

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12

Manufacturing Services Construction


Job Gains

Job Losses

After the North West, Northern Ireland posts the steepest decline in employment over the last month …

Employment LevelsNovember 2012

50 = No change

49.4

51.8

47.9

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

Y&H EM SE SW Scot East NE WM Wal UK Lon NI NW RoI

PMI Index

IncreasingD

ecreasing


…and steepest decline over the last 3 months…

Employment LevelsLast 3 months to November 2012

50 = No change

49

46.4

51.9

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

EM WM Y&H Scot SE UK East Wal SW NW NE Lon NI RoI

PMI index

IncreasingD

ecreasing


…and over the last 12 months

Employment LevelsLast 12 Months to November 2012

50 = No change

50.6

49.9

46.9

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

EM WM Y&H SE Scot East UK SW NE NW Wal Lon NI RoI

PMI index

IncreasingD

ecreasing


Northern Ireland Quarterly Employment Survey (QES)

V Markit Economics / Ulster

Bank PMI

PMI has been a reliable indicator of employment trends

NI Employment: PMI (up to Nov-12) v QES*

35

40

45

50

55

60

Dec-03 Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12

PMI Index

-1.5%

-1.3%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.5%

-0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

0.5%

0.8%

1.0%Q/Q

PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q

Discontinuity in QES Series

Job losses

Job gains

*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI & includes the public sector

Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction,PMI 3mth averages

Services PMI more negative in Q2 & Q3 than QES. Q4 PMI signals further job losses albeit marginal

NI Services Employment: PMI (up to Nov-12) v QES*

40

45

50

55

60

65


PMI Index

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Q/Q



Job losses

Job gains


*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI and includes the public sector

Manufacturing PMI suggested employment levels stabilised in Q3

NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI (Nov-12) v QES*

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65


PMI Index

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Q/Q




Job losses

Job gains

*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms

The PMI & official QES numbers have pointed to job losses throughout downturn. PMI suggests further job losses in Q4

NI Construction Employment: PMI (to Nov-12) v QES

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65


PMI Index

-10.0%

-7.5%

-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

Q/Q



Job losses

Job gains

*QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms


Unemployment

NI dole queue still lengthening on a monthly basis

Slide 62

NI unemployment still pushing higher Claimant Count Monthly Change

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12

M/M

Nov 2008

+3,200

Nov2012+500

Source: DFP

…the overall dole queue is now at 64,700

Slide 63

NI Unemployment Claimant Count Levels

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Nov-85 Nov-88 Nov-91 Nov-94 Nov-97 Nov-00 Nov-03 Nov-06 Nov-09 Nov-12

Source: DFP

Nov 2012 64,700 highest levels

since April 1997

Record low Aug 0723,500

Good Friday Agreement signed

April 199857,900

No jobs for the boys? It’s been a ‘Mancession’

Slide 64

NI 12 Monthly Change in Claimant Count

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12

Male Female

Source: DFP, ONS

Rise in male unemployment accelerating again

Slide 65

NI Claimant Count by Gender

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Male Female

Source: ONS, NOMIS

Unemployment a major problem within the <25s

Slide 66

Youth unemployment falls for last 3 three monthsClaimant Count Monthly Change

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12

Source: DFP

No. of under 25s claiming the dole is 1/3rd above GFA levels

Slide 67

NI Youth Claimant Count Levels<25 years of age

17,876

Nov 07 low 7,050

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


Source: DFP

19,551 Highest level since October

1996

GFAApril 1998

14,145

Not all sun, sea and sangria for NI’s Club 18-34: the first-time buyers of today and tomorrow

Slide 68

NI Unemployment by Age

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Jan-12 Nov-12

<25yrs of Age 25-34 Yrs of Age

Source: ONS, Claimant Count

House price peak

Rise in claimant count across all occupation types

Slide 69

Occupation November 2012

LevelsIncrease in Numbers Nov 2007 ‐ Nov 2012

% Change

Sales & Customer Service Occupations 10,720 8,015 296%Personal Service Occupations 4,715 3,370 251%Skilled Trades Occupations 12,030 8,150 210%Associate Professional & Technical Occupations 3,290 2,180 196%Managers & Senior Officials 735 1,120 191%Process, Plant & Machine Operatives 8,135 5,255 182%Administrative & Secretarial Occupations 4,720 2,940 165%Professional Occupations 1,865 1,100 144%Elementary Occupations 16,290 8,930 121%Source: ONS, refers to occupation sought by claimants

Claimant Count Levels & Growth by Occupation ( Ranked by % Growth)

NI-UK Unemployment Differential is returning where it was before the NICE Decade

Slide 70

NI-UK unemployment rate differential widening

7.1%

4.8%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Nov-98 Nov-00 Nov-02 Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12

%

NI UK

Source: ONS / DFP Claimant Count

2.3 pp

May 19992.4 pp

NI has the second highest unemployment rate using the claimant count

Slide 71

Claimant Count Unemployment by UK RegionNovember 2012

4.9

7.8

7.1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

SE SW East Lon EM UK Scot Wal NW WM Y&H NI NE

%Source: DFP & ONS, % of Workforce

NI’s unemployment rate in line with the UK’s (although we view NI ILO figure flatters true NI position) but remains well below that of the RoI

Slide 72

UK, NI & RoI Unemployment Rates

NI & UK 7.8%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

Oct-96 Oct-98 Oct-00 Oct-02 Oct-04 Oct-06 Oct-08 Oct-10 Oct-12

NI UK RoI

Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey & CSO Live Register

… but only 4 regions have a lower rate using the ILO unemployment rate

Slide 73

ILO Unemployment Rate August - October 2012

7.8% 7.8%

9.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

SW SE East Scot UK NI Wal EM NW WM Y&H Lon NE

Rate

And the employment rate is the lowest in the UK

Slide 74

ILO Employment Rate (16-64yr olds) August - October 2012

67.5

71.2

60

65

70

75

80

NI NE Lon Wal NW WM Scot EM Y&H UK SE SW East

Employment Rate

NI’s economic inactivity rate remains the highest within the UK

Slide 75

ILO Economic Inactivity Rate Rate (16-64yr olds) August - October 2012

22.6

26.7

15

20

25

30

East SE SW EM Y&H UK WM Scot Lon NW Wal NE NI

Rate %

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ni labour market december 2012

Economy & Finance