i l lustrat ion by Chris gashGREG TROTT/AP IMAGES30 EsPN The Magazine 12/24/2012

playbook NFL

sack attackSteve Smith Panthers wide receiver

mag minute

What is your hidden talent?I sing R&B in the bathroom. When I echo off the walls, it sounds good.

What’s your most prized possession?My [signed] Joe Montana football—personalized for me.

If you could have dinner with anyone, who would it be?Nelson Mandela. He was persecuted, but he showed patience and forgiveness.

What place do you most want to visit?I want to ski in Switzerland.

What’s the most embarrass-ing music you listen to?Country music. Brad Paisley.

AN NFC SCOUT“When we put together our first draft board in December 2010, we had Smith as the No. 1 player. He’s that talented. He can play as a stand-up outside linebacker or with his hand on the ground as a defensive end. He’s powerful enough to push a tackle right back into a QB, and he can blow around the edge with as much burst as anybody in

the league. The most amazing part of his game is how he uses his incredibly long arms to push away linemen and to prop himself up when guys go low at him. He’s able to keep himself up and moving. The only reason he didn’t start last season was inexperience; he came out of Missouri as a redshirt sophomore who had played just 22 games. The guy is a superstar.”

KHALED ELSAYED, PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS“Hold on a minute. Yes, Smith is having a great year. But five of his sacks have come when he was either unblocked or cleaning up another player’s pressure. And in our metric measur-ing pass-rush productivity (sacks, hits and hurries divided by number of passing plays), Smith had generated 53 pressures on 368 opportunities through 12 games. That’s impressive output, but his 14.4% rate is only eighth in the NFL (Broncos OLB Von Miller is tops at 20.2%). The truth is, Smith isn’t great against the run and benefits enormously from playing alongside DT Justin Smith. So let’s reserve that defensive POY talk for Miller—or even the other Smith on the 49ers.”

BILL POLIAN, ESPN ANALYST/FORMER COLTS GM“I agree that it’s not a one-man show with the 49ers defense. Justin Smith represents maybe the single hardest player to find in all of football—the outstanding pass-rushing 3-4 end—and deserves a ton of credit. But Aldon has terrific length and speed, and he and J.J. Watt deserve to be the favorites for defensive POY. I’m especially amazed by Smith’s flexibility, which allows him to bend his body and bore into a lineman so much so that he can almost make a 90-degree turn around the corner to get to the QB. There’s no good way to deal with San Francisco’s defensive line.”

Aldon Smith is closing fast on Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record of 22.5. He has already reached 30 sacks faster than any other player (27 games), so it’s safe to call the Niners outside linebacker the best defensive player of 2012, right? Not so fast. We rounded up four expert opinions on the 6'4", 258-pound Smith. The verdicts varied as much as San Fran’s vaunted D-line stunts.

KC JOYNER, ESPN’S FOOTBALL SCIENTIST“Smith leans heavily on a limited bag of pass-rushing tricks. He has a fantastic bull rush, with a shoulder club and swim move to the inside. But that’s about it. Then again, does it matter? No one’s figured out how to stop Smith’s rush because of his mastery of the technique, his relentlessness and the presence of Justin Smith, who is a genius at constantly occupying (legally … most of the time) two blockers. That’s why Aldon Smith looks like a good bet to break Strahan’s record. And if that happens, it’s hard to imagine he won’t win—deservedly—NFL defender of the year.”

Aldon Smith is prolific and timely: Through 12 games, 7.5 of his 17.5 sacks had come in the fourth quarter or OT.

NON-OFFENSIvE TDs, CAREERDEvIN HESTER: 18 RECORD HOLDER:DEION SANDERS, 19

Teams don’t kick to Hester as much as they used to (2006-07: 4.8 returns per game; since then: 3.4 rpg). But fittingly for a Chicago star, Hester usually gets hot when the weather turns cold. He has five return TDs in 23 total games in December, his highest monthly rate.

WHY THE RECORD WILL STANDOn five occasions in his career, Hester has scored two return touchdowns in a three-game span. But breaking this record likely would require a TD against Arizona or Green Bay, two of the NFL’s best special-teams units (no return TDs allowed). Wait ’til next year, Devin.

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playbook NFL

fROM lEfT: JACK DEMPSEY/AP IMAGES; DANIEl GlUSKOTER/CSM/lANDOV; NUCCIO DINUZZO/CHICAGO TRIBUNE/MCT/GETTY IMAGES; JOE ROBBINS/GETTY IMAGES

MOST RECEIvING YARDS, TWO-SEASON SPANCALvIN JOHNSON: 3,109 RECORD HOLDER:JERRY RICE, 3,347

Can anyone cover Megatron? Johnson is averaging a league-best 16.6 yards per touch this season and is the NFL’s all-time leader with 83 receiving yards per game. Through Week 13, he was also on pace to break Rice’s single-season mark of 1,848 receiving yards.

WHY THE RECORD WILL FALLIn Weeks 9 through 13, Johnson averaged an astounding 158 ypg. To break Rice’s two-season mark, he’ll need to average just 60 ypg the rest of the way. Detroit threw a league-high 547 times in its first 12 games (Johnson had 143 targets), so Megatron should blow past Rice.

oN the markAldon Smith isn’t the only one making a run at the NFL record book. We scout out four other under-the-radar marks that

are in the crosshairs down the stretch, then predict whether they will stand or fall. —Jeff Gold and KC Joyner

ALL STATS THROUGH WEEK 13.

MOST 50-YARD FGs, SEASONGREG ZUERLEIN: 7RECORD HOLDERS: JASON HANSON AND MORTEN ANDERSEN, 8

In Week 6, with the game on the line against Miami, Rams coach Jeff Fisher decided to let his rookie kicker try a 66-yard FG. Zuerlein missed wide left, but the strategy wasn’t as crazy as it sounds: “Legatron” says he once made a wind-aided 74-yarder in warmups.

WHY THE RECORD WILL FALLIt took just 12 games for Zuerlein to tie the single-season record for 50-plus-yard tries (11). In fact, only two other kickers this season have attempted as many long kicks as Zuerlein has made. Expect him to not just break this record but shatter it.

CATCH AS CATCH CANThrough Week 13, D’s were on pace for a historic 69 pick sixes. And not just because of pass-happy offenses. QBs were in line for a record 17,961 attempts but were throwing INTs at a rate of 2.7%, an all-time low. Also, teams like the Bears, who were leading the NFL with seven INTs for TDs, practice turning picks into points. Here’s a look at pick sixes per season since 1970. —SCoTT T. MIller

INTs RETURNED

FOR TDs

2012

1970

1980

1990

2000

GAME-WINNING DRIvES, CAREERPEYTON MANNING: 49 RECORD HOLDER: DAN MARINO, 51

When Marino retired after the 1999 season, he held almost every significant NFL passing mark. Over the years, many have fallen, one by one. Next up: game-winning drives. Through 12 games, Manning had three late-game rallies, with a 122.3 fourth-quarter passer rating in close games.

WHY THE RECORD WILL STANDDenver’s remaining games include Cleveland and KC, so Manning’s comeback scenarios figure to be limited. Plus, the Broncos might rest him if their Week 17 game doesn’t affect playoff seeding—which is possible. Marino can breathe easy about this feat ... for one more year.