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Approved for Public Release

Next-GenerationOperational Health & Decision Support

in the Maintenance EnvironmentMr. Tom Dabney

Prognostics & Health Management (PHM) LeadJoint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program Office

2009 Department of DefenseMaintenance Symposium & Exhibition

26 – 29 October 2009

2Approved for Public Release

Discussion Topics

• Evolution to Decision Support• Expected Benefits• JSF PHM Roadmap• Operational Stakeholder Capabilities & Key

Attributes• Health Management Strategic Deployment• Observations & Moving Forward Effectively


Requires Balance and PerspectiveEnabling Through Technology & Innovative Business Practices

Achieving Next Generation Decision Support

DATA

CBM+

RCM

CBM

Benefit

SurvivabilityLethality

AffordabilityCost Savings

ReadinessAvailability

Mission ReliabilitySafety

Sophistication

Decision SupportPrognostics

Rapid MaturationHealth StateDiagnostics

AnalysisProcesses

DataSystems

Approved for Public Release

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Shows historical progression from data to enhanced decision support. Data has always been captured; the community focused on Reliability priorities and instituted RCM /RCMA with a high degree of focus on the maintenance side with early CBM concepts that has now rapidly expanded across the Enterprise which allows for a balanced approach and enabling continuous improvement opportunities. Data capture and management is critical including the distribution and presentation to stakeholders. Technology and innovative business processes have enabled the ability to effectively provide information to decision makers.


Expected BenefitsNot Inclusive of Qualitative Values

MFHB CNDMFHBMEMFHBRMMH/FH

Maintainability

QTY

Mishap Reduction

QTYWeight (Lbs.)Volume (cu ft)

Support Equipment

Manpower

C17 Loads, TonsLogistics Footprint

Safety

SGRSGR (Initial/Sustained)

PHM Benefit

Airframe/OML RestorationRecurring Cost

79-82% Improvement13-14% Improvement

3% Improvement17-32% Improvement

Reduction of 46-52%

Reduction of 2-17%

Reduction of 14-38%

Reduction of 6-10%

$1.05B - $7.87B Cost Avoidance

10 to 14% Improvement

Based on Concept Demo Phase Cost Benefit Analyses

TODAY

O&SR&D &

Production

JSF

O&SR&Dand

Production

40-60%

Key AttributesProactive Decision

Support/Triggering, Health State Based; Autonomics; Planned

Continuous Improvement; Near Real Time Updates; Anomaly

Management; No False Alarms

Presenter

Presentation Notes

If you are not familiar with the expected benefits of a “Enterprise Health Management’ System or PHM. This is a summary of expected benefits based on Cost Benefit Trades done early in the program that drove PHM as a JSF core element by design. Commercial industry has seen ROI’s over 100%. Even if off by a factor of 2 the savings are worth pursuing. Also note Key attributes we are striving for


Accessing Material Conditionfor Decision Support

Health AnalysisPrognostics

Remaining Useful Life Trigger Points

Abnormal Health Warning –

Unexpected Slope Delta

Monitor: System or Sub- System Level ; Precursors to Failure Indicators, Usage Indices, Performance

Degraded Health Warning – New

Slope

Notional Example

Decision SupportResource PlanningMaintenance Action

Operational Planning

Change in Health State and Prognostic Indications

Identifying Deltas From Expectations

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The idea of AMC is by far a significant aspect of PHM and the enabling of autonomic logistics and the road to achieving affordability goals. The active monitoring of health and/or performance aspects and triggering condition based management decisions based on expectations is key….with advances in technology this capability is now achievable with a broader scope and allows for coverage of complex interdependent systems. Changes in expected behavior allow for Condition based management decisions…motherly type reactions….and ultimately prognostics for CBM and decision support to all stakeholders across the enterprise. Health state changes (good or bad direction) Rapid life adjustments Remaining useful life predictions Prognosis Time horizon management When it is optimal to perform such maintenance actions.


Prognostics and Health ManagementNotional Roadmap to Next Generation Decision Support

2009‐ 2015 2016‐2020 2021‐2025

20 Aug 2009

Sustainment Transformation (Health Based with Decision Support)

• Mxt Mgt• Training• Supply Mgt• Business/PBL• FD/S&T Tech Refresh• Warfighter/Sust• Policy Service Procedures

USMC IOC

Notional Multi‐Year Sustainment Contracts

Key Transition Events• Flight Test

• Deployments

• PBL Sustainment

Anticipated 200K Hrs Maturity

Autonomic Improvements, Future Development Initiatives, Service Interoperability Enhancements

Continuous Improvement• RAM/Integrity• KD/Data Mining• Cost Benefit Trades• S&T Insertion

PHM 0.5 Blk 1 Blk 2

PaxEAFB

Eglin RFT

OT

0.51.0 2.0 3.0JRMET

Blk 3

Tech Insertion

2009 2011 2013 20152010 2012 2014

LRIP4Sust’mt

LRIP5 LRIP6 LRIP7

Rel

1.0.3AALIS 1.0.2A

Legend

LRIP Task

FD or Sust. Task

S&T or future Investment

SDD Task

PHM Tracking Starts with 0.5

Initial Subsystems (K2 Candidates)(K3 Candidates) Experience‐Based Extensions, Improvements

Interfaces, Mx/Pilot Trning Lean On Demand

Interfaces/Procedures Reliability Based Prepositioning Health Based Sparing

Interfaces, Data/Procedures Initial Full Continuous Improvement Decision Support

Emerging Technology; Next‐Generation Models & Capabilities

FLM, Health Center, FUMS MEFL Enhanced MEFL Functional Assessment

Identify; Stakeholder Involvement Introduce Trial Transition

SBIR IRAD/PBL Influenced

Data Collection Evaluation JRMET/FRCAS FLM/RCMA Monitor/Check and Adjust CBM+ EHM

Development & Delivery• Delivery

– PHM SW

– HM Assessment

• Performance

• AMC/Prognostics

WO Generation, AFRS, Initial AMC CBM Differed/Opportunistic Robust Prognostics

USAF IOC USNavy IOC International IOC

SDDEnd

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Product Delivery – Incremental product delivery; we are designing and integrated tool suite and process for maturation. Action capture, anomaly mgt, and continuous improvement. Multiple options over lesson learned issues with SW updates and process constraints. The Warfighter knowledge, processes and activities are critical to maturation and continuous improvement. Bottom line is that the Warfighter is now. is integrated Sustainment Transformation – Enhancements with high integration. Offering Decision Support across all elements. Warfihgter, sustainment and enterprise operations. Next Generation HM system is the key to providing success (Data, information, infrastructure, tools, processes and simple awareness to decision makers). AV design showing positive results to date over lessons learned in the area of reported health code efficiency. Continuous improvement – Tools and process in place to achieve and implement. This is a part of the overall design inherent in the AV SW design, OP tools and SW design, case based approach to failure and trouble shooting, failure case probability and confidence capture, sustainment resourcing approach (dedicated funding, PBL, and autonomics) We are not there yet, but aggressively pursuing….Will take a coalition community to help identify barriers and solutions good for the community overall.. We would like the legacy community to be able to utilize fundamental concepts and capabilities to drive maturation, identify barriers and drive for a pull across the community.


Next Generation PHMOperational Stakeholders & Key Capabilities

– Enhanced PM Support– Enhanced Fleet Health Mgt

– Lean/On Demand Training– Health Based Inventory/SCM– Asset Prepositioning– Force Life Management

– RAM Enhancements– Targeted Tech Refresh/S&T– Rapid Life Alignment &

Extension

– Enable PBL Enhanced Features– Proactive Enterprise Decision

Support

– Health State Reporting to Pilot

– Parametric & Environmental Data Collection

– Asset Prepositioning/Downlink– Enhanced Aircraft and System Health

Status

– Functional Mission Assessment– Enhanced Mission, Operations and

Resource Scheduling– Active Fleet Management

– Enhanced Operational Decision Support

– Efficient Failure Resolution– Eliminate RTOK/CND– Anomaly Management

– Integrated Continuous Improvement and Case Maturation

– Health State Knowledge Discovery

– Enhanced Scheduling– Automated WO Generation/JTD and

Failure Resolution Cases– CBM, Opportunistic & Deferred Mxt– AMC/Prognostics

– Autonomic Decision Support Triggers

OperationsMaintenanceResource SchedulingAsset Allocation/Management

Warfighter Operations

MaintenanceSustaining EngineeringContinuous ImprovementLocal Logistic Support

Sustainment Operations

Development/OEMsServices/Program ManagementBusiness & Policy ManagersExtended Logistics Support

Enterprise Operations

Presenter

Presentation Notes

A simple perspective: Warfighter Operation; Sustainment operation and Enterprise Operations. Much overlap, but to help manage the complexity and ‘inherent friction factor’ in a program life cycle this seems to be an effective method to decompose capabilities and needs for enhancements, future development, resourcing and continuous improvements. For this symposium, the bolded area are high lights.


Key Attributes of Next Generation MxtIntegration and Balance

Sustainment Operations Warfighter Operations Enterprise Operations

PHMData/Information

ArchitectureTools & Processes

– End to End Improvement– Knowledge Discovery– Targeted Tech Refresh– OEM Supply– Extended Logistics– Fleet Health Management– Rapid Life Optimization

– Autonomic Decision Support– Warfighter Operations– Sustainment Operations– Enterprise Operations– Force Life Management– Balanced Resource Allocation

– Maintenance Efficiency – Expedient Failure Resolution– Anomaly Management – Targeted Removals

(CBM/Opportunistic/deferred Mxt)– Integrated Continuous Improvement

and Case Maturation– Integrated Case Based Maturation

– High Integration into Operations, Training, Supply & Support Systems

– Enhanced Scheduling– On Demand Training– Downlink– AMC/Prognostics

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Decision support is across all three areas (friction areas) that have to work in harmony/balance. The environment and dynamics of the environment make this a dynamic balancing effort. Highly integrated PHM is core as defined above (Data, Architecture, Tools Processes) provides for decision support. The key attributes enabled by technologies allows the burden to be transparent to the users.


Health Management Strategy DeploymentIdentifying Core Barriers to Success

Operational Health Support

System Design Decision Support

Performance Monitoring

Data Management

ContinuousImprovement

CommonOverarching Business/PM

Deliver Next Generation Health Management/Decision Support SolutionTrue‐NorthVision

FocusAreas

Sustainment OperationsWarfighter Operations Enterprise OperationsKeyPerspectives

Roadmap Provides Overarching “True‐North” Alignment & Tempo

Strengthen Stakeholder Advocacy• Education, Create Pull Factor, Roadshow, DemosDeliver the Capability• CONOPS, Design, Capabilities, Products Maturation PlanEnable Autonomic Logistics• Decision Support (Operations, Support, Business)• Logistics Transformation, Policies, Benefit Trade ModelsContinuous Improvement• Performance Monitoring, Maturation, S&T, Acquisition Strategy

‐ ‐ Long Term ‐ ‐Setting Direction• HM CONOPS, Implementation Plan, Thread DemosExecuting the Vision• Organization, Value/Cost Benefit, Future Dev, Roadshow • Interim HM Sustainment; Expectation MgtAssessment Approach• Data Mgt, Design Viability, Architecture Rvw, Capabilities/Req’t Delivery, TPMs/Performance Monitoring•Gaps/Barrier Identification and Product Delivery

‐ ‐ Near Term ‐ ‐ Strategic Deployment

Enhanced SustainmentDevelopment & Delivery Continuous ImprovementRoadmapFocus

Identifying Key Barriers to Success & Getting the Right Things Done!

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The JSF PHM team has adopted and tailored a strategic deployment strategy for dealing with this ‘highly integrated’, multi-discipline, complex capability. There are numerous stakeholders involved in the design, architecture, implementation and utilization of PHM. Some are responsible for delivering portions of the capability and some are users or beneficiaries. This process allows us to get the right things done near term and long term. We apply the Plan, Do, Check and Adjust within all levels of the program execution. This also allows us to adjust for program dynamics real time and ensure vertical and horizontal alignment across the teams. The core perspectives keep us aware of the balancing and friction factors within the operational context of a program.


Broad Observations & Moving Forward Effectively

• Broad Observations– Achieving Our Vision Involves Multiple Disciplines and a High Degree of

Integration … that have to work towards a ‘common true north’– Single Program/Service Can Not Effectively Achieve Vision Alone– Key Experience Resides in Legacy Programs with Pockets of Excellence– Need Champions & Stakeholder Advocacy – “Create the Pull Factor”– Common/Fundamental Core Barriers Exist – Work Core Barriers Together

• Moving Forward Effectively– Adopt a DoD Enterprise Approach to Address & Resolve Core Barriers– Drive for an Alliance and Coalition Approach– Leverage Services and Program’s Resources

Tools, Processes, Lessons Learned, Expertise, Data, Schedule and Funding

– Provide Enhanced Capabilities into Established Programs– Key Enterprise Focus Areas

• Transition to Reengineered Logistics Decision Support Processes• Requirements Definition• Provide Benefit Trade Tools and Models• Education

Drive Towards 2020 with “20-20 Vision”

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Adopt a DoD Enterprise Approach to Achieve Capability Drive for a Coalition Alliance amongst the Principal Stakeholders Create a Synergistic Pull Factor Align Resources across Service/Platforms (Data, Expertise, Funding, Schedule) Leverage Existing Program Information Share Valuable Lessons Learned, Data and Experience/Expertice Warfighter Problem-Focused Solutions Augment Current R&D Initiatives Transition to Reengineered Logistics Decision Support Value-Stream Processes Policies, Procedures and Methods need to transform Team Approach is Required Education Requirements/Standards


Questions?


Expected Benefits to Acquisition Strategy

Based on CDP CBAs

TODAY

O&SR&Dand

Production

JSF

O&S

R&Dand

Production

40-60%

Products (SW & Tools); HDRW; Processes;Analysis, Maturation and Sustaining Tasks

Key Attributes - Proactive Decision Support/Triggering, Health State Based; Autonomics; Planned Continuous Improvement; Near Real Time Updates;

Anomaly Management; No False Alarms

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The JSF challenge is to lower the overall Total Ownership Cost. We need to do this because as our systems continue to cost more to operate, the total DOD budget authority is also going down. In order to survive, we have to tackle the main cost drivers. Historically 60% of program costs lies in the O&S portion of the budget. This is the area we need to pursue if we are to truly achieve affordability. These represent quantifiable benefits. Many qualifiedly benefits are also available. ATTACK AND DRIVE DOWN O&S COSTS GAO report provides some risk in achieving program O&S targets. This provides further opportunity for technologies such as PHM to reign-in O&S cost increases.


Health ManagementNear-real Time Data Collection

Anomaly Indication Triggered by CRM

Operational HealthTrending &

Knowledge Discovery

RCM-like Decision Logic

Appropriate ActionsTaken

Performance Monitoring

Health ManagementContinuous Improvement FeedbackProcesses

#’s Acft

Verified Failure Reporting

Data Collecting & Trending Analysis

Appropriate ActionsTaken

R&M Metric Monitoring

RCM Decision LogicApplied

Health State Monitoring Reduces Fleet Impact from Degraded Systems

Max Aircraft Impacted

LegacyNext Generation

Early Degraded Near-Real TimeHealth State Indications

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

6

Legacy RCM Feedback Processes

ConfidenceBounds

Historical Data Predicted Trend

Trend AnalysiszEarly Indication ThresholdIntermediate Indication ThresholdImminent Failure Threshold

ConfidenceBounds

Historical Data TimePredicted Trend

Trend on Reliability (Verified Failures)

Trend on Current Health State

RCM Process Model

Applying RCM to Achieve Accelerated Continuous Improvement


Assess Material ConditionDefinition

• Healthy - Operating Near Nominal Design Levels• Failure - Operation determined to be Below Performance Specification Threshold• Degradation - Measure of Movement Toward the Failure Threshold During Operation• Life Consumed – Delta from Initial Operating Condition and Current Nominal Operating Condition• Prognose Time to Failure – Prediction of the estimated time to failure based on Physics of Failure,

trending analysis and/or environmental factors• Life Remaining - Total design life less cumulative life consumed (Life limited components only)

PerformancePerformance Spec. Threshold (Failure Threshold)

Nominal Operating ConditionDegradation (Margin Decay)

Time

• AMC is defined as one or more of the following AS capabilities: 1) detect and monitor a LRC’s performance as related to healthy, failed, or degrading; 2) determine life consumed; 3) prognose (predict/estimate) time to failure*; and 4) determine life remaining* estimate.

• AMC is comprised of an on-board and off-board functional component.

*Off Board Capability, but may also be hosted on acft.

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