newark, nj: rutgers center on public security
TRANSCRIPT
OPERATION
SAFESURROUNDINGS
(OPSS)::
THEEVIDENCE-BASED
VIOLENCEPREVENTIONSTRATEGY
By
JoelM.Caplan
LeslieW.Kennedy
OnBehalfOf
TheRutgersCenteronPublicSecurity
IssuesinSpatialAnalysisSeries,Vol.2
EditedbyJ.M.CaplanandL.W.Kennedy
2019
Newark,NewJersey
USA
2
Copyright©2019.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisdocumentmaybe
reproducedinanymannerwithoutwrittenpermissionbythecopyright
holders.
SuggestedCitation
Caplan,J.M.andKennedy,L.W.(2019).IssuesinSpatialAnalysisSeries:
Vol. 2. Operation Safe Surroundings: The Evidence-Based Violence
PreventionStrategy.Newark,NJ:RutgersCenteronPublicSecurity.
ProducedbytheRutgersCenteronPublicSecurity
Based at Rutgers University's School of Criminal Justice, the Rutgers
CenteronPublicSecurity(RCPS)offersamultidisciplinaryapproachto
the academic study and practical application of ways in which
democraticsocietiescaneffectivelyaddresscrime,terrorismandother
threats to public security. This involves the prevention of, protection
fromandresponsetonaturalorman-madeeventsthatcouldendanger
the safety or security of people or property in a given area. RCPS
engages in innovative data analysis and information dissemination,
including the use of GIS, for strategic decision-making and tactical
action.
Visitwww.rutgerscps.org
3
CONTENTSOPERATIONSAFESURROUNDINGS(OPSS)
CHAPTER1: MAXIMIZINGLOCALRESOURCES......................................5
CHAPTER2: IMPLEMENTINGOPSS........................................................9
CHAPTER3: ANALYSESANDMETHODSFOROPSS............................14
CHAPTER4: INTERVENTIONSFOCUSEDATPLACES..........................17
CHAPTER5: EVIDENCE-BASEDSUPPORTFOROPSS........................20
REFERENCES...............................................................................................29
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5
CHAPTER1MaximizingLocalResources
WhyOperationSafeSurroundings?
EnhancePublicSafetywithExistingResources
ProblemStatement
Violentcrimeisaproblemandfrequentcauseforconcern
voicedbymanyconstituents.Traditionalperson-oriented
lawenforcementresponsestoviolentcrimeproblems,
focusedondeterrenceorincapacitation,raisemany
complexissues.Asoleemphasisonlawenforcementand
otherpolicingtacticstorespondtoviolentcrimespikeshas
mixedevidenceofsuccessandsustainability,andraises
notableciviljusticeandpublicrelationsissues.Economic
andsocialissuesmustalsobeconsideredwhendeveloping
acomprehensiveviolencepreventionstrategy.
Policingtacticsoftenshapeviolencepreventionstrategies
andundulyraiseexpectationsthatthecriminaljustice
system,alone,cansolvecrimeproblems.This
inappropriatelyminimizestheburdenandrolesthat
multipleotherstakeholdersshouldplaytomitigatechronic
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problemsatriskyplaces.Multipleresourcesneedtobe
coordinatedinoptimalwaystorespondtoandreduce
violentcrimeandtoenhancepublicsafety.
LocalNeeds
• Maximizeexistingresourcestofocusonplacesand
peoplewiththegreatestneedsinordertoreducecrime
andenhancepublicsafety.
• Balancepolicingandlawenforcementtacticswithall
otheroptions.
• Establishanevidence-basedstrategythatisdata-
driven,transparentandsustainable.
Solution
OperationSafeSurroundings(OpSS)isadata-driven,
transparentandsustainablestrategyforcrimeprevention
andriskmitigationthroughcoordinated,multi-stakeholder,
resourcedeploymentsthatdisruptsituationalcontextsof
illegalbehavior.
OperationSafeSurroundingsestablishesaforumand
evidence-basedprocessforproblem-solvingandtactical
7
decision-makingforresponsiveactionsandfollow-upsthat
enhancepublicsafetyviariskgovernance.
Whilelawenforcementiscommonlyusedasasynonymfor
policing,OpSSacknowledgesthatneithertacticisa
comprehensivestrategyforviolenceprevention,inandof
itself.Therefore,OpSSmakescleardistinctionsamong
theseconceptswithinthecontextofpublicsafety,which
refersmorebroadlytothegeneralwelfareandprotection
ofthepublicfromvariousdangersaffectingpeople,
propertyandcollectivewell-being.
Policing,LawEnforcementandPublicSafety
Policingcanbebothplace-basedandperson-oriented,
whereaslawenforcementfocusesonlyonpeoplewho
violatethelaw.Publicsafetyinvolvespolicingandlaw
enforcementplusothertacticsandresources.
• Policingencompassesawiderangeofactivities
carriedoutbypoliceofficerstocontroltheaffairsof
acommunity,especiallywithrespectto
maintenanceoforder,law,health,andsafety.
8
Policingcanbebothplace-basedandperson-
oriented.
• Lawenforcementisakeyfunctionofpolicingthat
refersspecificallytoenforcingthewrittenrules
governingsocietybydiscovering,deterring,
stopping,and/orseizingpeoplewhoviolatethelaw.
• Publicsafetyrefersmorebroadlytothegeneral
welfareandprotectionofthepublicfromvarious
dangersaffectingpeople,property,andcollective
well-being.Policingandlawenforcementaffect
publicsafety;multipletacticsandstakeholderscan
enhancepublicsafety.‘Safesurroundings’connotes
theimportanceofreducingthreatsandriskswithin
one’spersonalspacethroughplace-basedstrategies
andtactics.
9
CHAPTER2ImplementingOpSS
TheStructureandProcess
8StepsforData-InformedActions
1. Convenean“OpSSTaskforce”comprisedofkey
communitystakeholders.
a. Ataminimum,thisshouldincludeofficialsfrom
mostcitydepartmentsandpublicsafety
programsalreadyunderway.Selected
representativesofcommunityagencies(e.g.,
NPOs)andlocalbusinessesmayalsobeincluded.
b. Thisoftenworksbestwhenspearheadedbya
policechief,citymayor,ordistrict
attorney’s/prosecutor’soffice.
2. Prioritizecurrentproblemissues(e.g.,robbery;
shootings;drugs;burglary;motorvehicletheft).OpSS
canworkforviolentandpropertycrimes,aswellas
otherpublicsafetythreats.
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3. AnalyzespatialandtemporalcrimepatternswithRisk
TerrainModeling(RTM)todiagnoseenvironmental
conditionsthatleadtotheseoutcomes(e.g.vacantand
abandonedproperties).
4. Specifyrisknarrativesthatconnecttothecrime
problemandaddsituationalcontexts,basedontherisk
factorsidentifiedbytheriskterrainmodel(s).
a. Note:risknarrativesmaychangeovertime,
comparedtoprioriterationsofthisstep.
5. Prescriberesponsiveactionstodisrupttherisk
narratives.Thesemayincludenewinitiativesor
policies,and/orthereallocationofexistingresources
(i.e.,patrols,activities,programs)toplaceswiththe
greatestneeds.
6. Coordinateresponsiveactionsanddesignatetask
managerstooverseethem.
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7. Prioritizeriskyplacesonamapanddeployresources
totheselocations.
a. Deploymentsshouldlastapproximately30days,
withdatacollectedaboutwhatactionswere
implemented,where,bywhom,andatwhat
levelsofintensity.
b. Coordinateandsetexpectationswithcommunity
membersandgroupsalreadyworkingtoaddress
problemsatpriorityplaces.
8. Re-convenetheOpSSTaskforceevery4-6weeksand
iteratesteps2-7basedonnewanalysesand
information.
a. Crimepatternsandriskyplacesarelikelyto
changeinresponsetosuccessfulresponsive
actions.RTManalysesaresensitivetothisand
shouldbere-runaccordingly.
b. PriortothenextOpSSTaskforcemeeting,
analystscanevaluateoutcomesfromthe
responsiveactionsalreadycompleted,update
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datasets,anddiagnosenewcrimepatternswith
RTMtoproduceactionablereportsfor
discussion.
i. Useevaluationsandreportstomeasure
successand,asappropriate,tomanage
expectationsandstrengthenpublic
relations.
c. Considerthefollowingwhenevaluating
outcomes:
i. ChangestoRelativeRiskValues(RRVs)of
targetedriskfactorsamongpre/postrisk
terrainmodels.
ii. Changestotheintensityofriskatplaces
ontheriskterrainmaps(i.e.,Relative
RiskScoresofplacesovertime)
iii. Changestocrimecounts/rates
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iv. Predictivevalidityofriskterrainmodels,
andyourselectedtargetareas.
d. Groundtruthresultsasawayofdetermining
progressinriskmitigationandimproving
surroundings.Thiscanincludesoliciting
communityinput,visitingsitesforimprovement,
andcollectingprogressreportsfromagencies
responsibleforneighborhoodimprovementand
upkeep.
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CHAPTER3AnalysesandMethodsforOpSS
RiskTerrainModeling(RTM)
ToIdentifyandDiagnoseRiskyPlaces
RiskTerrainModeling(RTM)isananalyticaltechniquethat
diagnosesenvironmentalconditionsthatleadtocrime(or
otherproblems).Itbringsmultiplesourcesofdatatogether
byconnectingthemtogeographicplaces,thenperforms
statisticalcalculations.
RTMaddssituationalcontextstodataandforecastsnew
locationsforcrimestoemergeorpersist.RTMiseasilywith
RTMDxsoftwarefromRutgersUniversity(rtmdx.com).
RiskNarratives
StoriesthatConnecttotheCrimeProblem
Risknarrativesconnectenvironmentalfeaturesidentified
throughRTM(e.g.seefigurebelow)tothesituational
contextsforillegalbehaviorsthatresultincrimesatthese
places.Riskfactorswilllikelydifferfordifferentcrime
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typesandacrossdifferentcities,sorisknarrativesmay
differtoo.
Arisknarrativeisaspokenorwrittenaccountofplaces,
peopleandbehaviorsthatconnecttocrimeproblemsat
particularplaces.Itconsidersdynamicinteractionsof
peopleatplacesthatcanbeunderstood(orhypothesized)
andthendisrupted.
Risknarrativesofferanopportunitytosolicitinputfrom
multipleperspectivesandtoaddnewmeaningsand
contextstoanalyticalproducts.
Forexample,inonecity,bodegas,vacantbuildingsandgas
stationswerediagnosedasriskfactorsforviolentcrimeby
theRTM.Acommunitystakeholderexplainedhowmany
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youthhangoutafterschoolnearcornerstores/bodegas
wheretheycaneasilycongregateandgetfood,drinks,and
itemstosmokeatnearbyvacantbuildings.Bodegascloseat
10p.m.,asrequiredbycityordinance,butgasstationswith
foodmartsareexempted.These24-houraday/7-daya
weekgasstationsprovidespaceandsuppliesforyouthto
congregatelateatnight,creatingauniquecontextforturf
conflict,offending,orvictimization.
Inanothercity,localresidentscomplainedaboutvacant
propertiesthatwereusedforillicitbehaviors,butwithso
manyvacantpropertiesinthecity,thetasktoaddressallof
themwasdaunting.RTMobjectivelyconnectedvacant
propertiestoviolentcrimeproblemsatparticularplaces.
Thisenabledcityagenciestoprioritizeresourcestoboard-
upandsecurevacantpropertiesatthehighest-riskplaces
asacrimepreventiontactic.
Seealso:riskterrainmodeling.com/situational-context.html
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CHAPTER4InterventionsFocusedatPlaces
DisruptRiskNarratives
ResponsiveActionsFocusonKeyFactorsatRiskyPlaces
Risknarrativessupportreasoningwithhypotheses,
wherebypreconceivednotionsaboutacrimeproblemand
itsrelationshipstospaceandtimecanbechallenged,or
clarified.
Becauserisknarrativesarticulatecrimeproblemsin
diverseways,multiplestakeholderscanbeengagedto
solvecrimeproblems,withmultipleresourcescoordinated
toaddressthekeyriskfactorsatpriorityplaces.
Seealso:riskterrainmodeling.com/risk-reduction.html
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PrioritizeRiskyPlacesonaMap
SelectTargetAreaswithRiskTerrainMaps
RiskTerrainModeling(RTM)producesamapthat'paintsa
picture'ofplaceswherecriminalbehaviorisstatistically
mostlikelytooccur.RelativeRiskScores(RRSs)shouldbe
usedtoprioritizeplacesonariskterrainmap(e.g.,see
figurebelow).Often,theplaceswithRRSsgreaterthantwo
standarddeviationsfromthemeanRRSaregivenpriority.
19
RiskfactorsidentifiedbyRTM(i.e.,inthetabularoutput)
addtransparencytoriskterrainmaps,andofferinsights
aboutwhattofocusonathigh-riskplaces.Thisletsyou
prioritizecrimepreventionandriskreductioneffortsatthe
targetareas.
Seealso:riskterrainmodeling.com/maps--tables.html
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CHAPTER5Evidence-BasedSupportforOpSS
Risk-BasedPolicingandRTM
HermanGoldsteinpublishedaseminalarticlein
1979titled“ImprovingPolicing:AProblemOriented
Approach.”Hearguedthattraditionalpolicingsuffered
froma“meansoverendssyndrome”.Thisresults,he
argued,inareactiveincident-basedapproachwhereby
policerespondtocrimeeventsatthesameplacesovertime
insteadofsolvingrecurringproblemsthatencouragethese
crimestoemergeinthefirstplace.Goldstein’sthesiswasa
boldstatementaboutthestateofthepolicingprofession,
anditwasacriticalonethatstillresonatestoday.
Problem-OrientedPolicing(POP)wasconceivedto
improvetheoutcomesofpolicingactivitiesbyequipping
officerswithtoolsandinformationtosolvethespecific
problemstheydealtwithintheline-of-duty(Goldstein,
2018).Thisrequiresdata,analytics,skilledpeople,anda
structuredapproachtousinganalyticaloutputs.Thismust
supporteffortstomakeinformeddecisions,deploy
resourcestothemostproblematicareas,andthen
systematicallyrepeatthesestepsovertime.Italsorequires
21
resourcesandtacticsbeyondpolicingandlawenforcement.
Sustainableandeffectivecrimeprevention
strategiesthatalsoenhancepublicsafetyrequire:1)
identifyingspecificproblemsthepublicexpectspoliceto
handle,2)deeplyunderstandingeachproblem,and3)
thinkingcreativelyaboutthebestpossible“tailor-made”
responses(Goldstein,2018,p1).
OperationSafeSurroundings(OpSS)putsahigh
valueoncrimepreventioneffortsthatdonotdependsolely
onthecriminaljusticesystembut,rather,engage
communitystakeholdersandotherpublicandprivate
resourcestosharetheburdenofpublicsafety.Itextends
theprinciplesofPOP,buildingonthesuccessesofrisk-
basedpolicing(Kennedy,Caplan&Piza,2018).Further,it
offersadisciplinedapproachtocrimepreventionthat
encouragesamulti-stakeholderfocusonplacestoprevent
crimesandmitigatecrimerisks.Thisapproachhasproven
tobeeffective,anditiscompatiblewithpublicdemands
andexpectationsforwhatacivillyjustcrimeprevention
strategyshouldbe.
AccordingtoKennedy,CaplanandPiza(2018),the
fivecentraltenetsofrisk-basedpolicingare:
1) Focusonplaces,notonlypeople,toprevent
22
crime;
2) Developspatialrisknarratives;
3) Solicitandvalueinputfromallranksofpolice
personnelandothercommunitystakeholders
aboutsituationalcrimecontexts,data
management,expectedoutcomes,and
performancemeasures;
4) Makedata-drivendecisionsfollowinga
transparentprocessofproblemdefinition,
informationgatheringandanalysis;and
5) Balancetherealneedsandexpectationsforlaw
enforcementactivitieswithcomprehensive
strategiesforcrimeriskreductionandpublic
safety.
Risk-basedpolicingreliesontheanalytical
frameworkprovidedbyRiskTerrainModeling(RTM).RTM
istheproductofover40yearsofsystematicinvestigation,
fieldworkandprofessionalexperience.Itisbasedon
scientificpeer-reviewedresearchoriginatingatRutgers
Universityandthenreplicatedandpublishedintheextant
23
literaturefromaroundtheworld1.RTMhasbeenusedin
over45countriesacross6continentsand35statesinthe
UnitedStates.Ithasaproventrackrecordwithsuccessful
outcomesthatreflectcommunitypriorities.
Insummary,RTMforecastsarebetterthan
predictionsbasedonhotspotmapping.RTMoutperforms
methodsusedby‘predictivepolicing’apps.Directingpolice
tohigh-riskplacesidentifiedbyRTMresultsinsignificantly
lowercrime.Riskterrainmapsareeasytounderstandand
tosharewithmultiplestakeholderswhoneedto
knowwheretogoandwhytobethere.Riskfactors
presentedintabularoutputsaddtransparencytothemaps.
RTMisplace-based,notpersonfocused,soitisless
susceptibletobiasanditpromotespositiveengagements
withcommunities.
Evaluationsinmultiplecities,fundedbytheU.S.
DepartmentofJustice,foundthatpolicingwithRTMand
targetinginterventionsathigh-riskplaces,resultedinas
muchas35%fewerguncrimes,33%fewermotorvehicle
thefts,and42%fewerrobberies,comparedtocontrol
areas.And,thereweremanyotherpositiveoutcomes
1A full bibliography of the research evidence is located at www.rtmworks.com
24
documentedinallthejurisdictionsstudied.Focusingon
riskyplacesworkstoreduceviolentandpropertycrimes.
RTMhasalsobeenappliedtoproblem-solvingefforts
regardingdrugs,trafficcrashes,terrorism,homeland
securityandpublichealth.
Place-BasedPrevention
Place-basedcrimepreventionrestsonthenotion
thatcrimesemergeandspatiallyconcentratewherethere
issomethingabouttheplacethatattractsillegalbehaviors
andleadstocrimeoutcomes(Weisburd,2008;Caplan&
Kennedy,2016).Thispresumptioniswelldocumentedin
researchliteratureutilizingvariousmethodologies
includinghotspotmapping(Haberman,2017;Weisburd&
Braga,2006;Sherman,1995;Sherman,Gartin,andBuerger,
1989;Schnell,Grossman,&Braga,2018),nearrepeat
analysis(Ratcliffe&McCullagh,1998;Ratcliffe&Rengert,
2008;Johnson,2008)andRiskTerrainModeling(Caplan&
Kennedy,2016;Garnier,Caplan,andKennedy,2018;
Connealy&Piza,2019).ItisalsogroundedintheTheoryof
RiskyPlaces(Kennedy,Caplan,Piza,&Buccine-Schraeder,
2016),theLawofCrimeConcentration(Weisburd,2015),
25
CrimePatternTheory(Brantingham&Brantingham,1981),
andothertheoreticalframeworkswithinthedomainof
criminologyandcriminaljustice(e.g.,Quetelet,1984;Park,
McKenzie&Burgess,1925;Shaw&McKay,1969;
Brantingham&Brantingham,1995).
Byaround1970,ideasforcrimepreventionthrough
environmentaldesign(CPTED)emergedfromwithinboth
thefieldsofcriminologyandarchitecturewhenresearchers
proposedthatthephysicalenvironmentofteninfluences
crime.PaulandPatriciaBrantinghambuiltfromthecross-
disciplinaryideasofCPTEDtoincludemoreelementsofthe
socialenvironmentandchangedthefocustoexamine
placesandpatternsoftheeventsthatoccurinthoseplaces.
Theyproposedthatplacesexhibitphysicalfeaturessuchas
retailstoresorentertainmentvenuesthathelpprovide
criminalopportunitiesbybringingtogetheroffendersand
targetsintimeandspace.They(1995)explainedthat
spatialcrimepatterns,andtheirstabilityovertime,area
functionofthe‘environmentalbackcloth’oftheareaunder
study,whichisdottedwith“crimeattractors”and“crime
generators”.
26
Kennedy,CaplanandPiza(2018)presentdata-
informedjustificationstofocusonrisksassociatedwith
certaintypesofenvironmentalfeaturesatcrime-prone
areas.Certainfeaturesofthelandscapeexertspatial
influencesonhumanbehaviorsthatcanaffectaplace’s
vulnerabilitytocrime–whichiswhycrimesemerge,
clusterandpersistovertime.Barnum,Caplan,Kennedyand
Piza(2017),forexample,demonstratedhow,consistent
withcrimepatterntheory(Brantingham&Brantingham,
1981)andthetheoryofriskyplaces(Kennedy,Caplan,Piza
&Buccine-Schraeder,2016),theenvironmentalbackcloth
affectshowplacefeaturesrelatetoandinfluencecrime
patterns.Whileitistheoreticallyandempiricallyevident
thatcrimesclusterspatially,itisalsoclearthatcrime
preventioneffortsneedtobetailoredtospecific
environmentalbehaviorsettingsinordertosufficiently
coolcrimehotspotsandpreventtheirreemergence.
OperationSafeSurroundings(OpSS)isdesignedto
offercluesonhowtochangesituationstomakethemless
conducivetocrimeandtofocuslessonlawenforcement
actionsagainstpeople.Goldstein(2018)explainsthatlaw
enforcementiscommonlyusedasasynonymforpolicing,
butenforcingthelawisnotthemostsustainableresponse
27
totheproblemsthatpolicedealwithregularly.OpSS
remindsusthatsustainablecrimepreventionstrategies
requiremorethanonlylawenforcementtactics.
Addressingthecollectiveinfluencesofenvironmental
featuresthatattractcrimeandgenerateillegalbehavior-
settingsisneededforacrimepreventionstrategythatis
place-basedandnotmerelyperson-focused.
UtilizingRTMtoanalyzefeaturesofthe
environmentalbackcloththataggravatecrimerisksoffers
cityofficialsoptionsforcrimepreventionthathelpsthem
targetandmitigateriskyfeaturesatpriorityplaceswithall
thevariousresourcesattheirdisposal.Itoffersaneffective
waytocoordinateresources(Caplan&Kennedy,2016;
Kennedy,Caplan&Piza,2018).
Policedealingswithpeopleathighcrimeareasmay
havetheeffectofdeterringcriminalsorevenreducing
crimecountsintheshort-term.But,despitethis,the
underlyingplace-basedfactorsthatattractandgenerate
problemsintheseareasdonotgoaway.So,whiletheOpSS
strategyaccommodatestheideasofsituationalcrime
prevention(Guerette&Bowers,2009;Clarke,1997)in
targetingcertainlocationsforintervention,effortscan
extendbeyondafocusonopportunitiesforcrimeorthe
28
“crimetriangle”(Cohen&Felson,1979;Cohen,Kluegel,&
Land,1981).Instead,effortscanbemadetotargetall
aspectsofthecontextsthatraisetheriskofcrime.OpSS
enablesaconcertedeffortbypoliceplusotherstakeholders
tomitigateenvironmentalattractorsandgeneratorsthat
makeparticularareassuitablelocationsforcrimetime-
and-again.OpSSdisruptsthecrimerisknarrativesto
reducecrimeandkeepitlow.
29
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Clarke,R.(1997).Introduction.InR.Clarke(Ed.),Situationalcrimeprevention,successfulcasestudies(2nded.).Monsey,NY:CriminalJusticePress.
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