new tigers re-shaping intra asia15 hoe chiang road singapore 089316 china unit d01, level 10,...

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PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL

9th Apr, 2019

New Tigers Re-Shaping Intra Asia

TOC Asia, Singapore

Welcome to Drewry

Drewry is a leading provider of research and consulting

services to the maritime and shipping industry. The

company has unrivalled experience and expertise across

all market sectors from containers and ports to tankers

and dry bulk.

From our origins in 1970 in London to a 21st century

maritime and shipping consultancy, Drewry has

established itself as one of the most widely used and

respected sources of impartial market insight and

industry analysis. This in-depth understanding and

objectivity provides our clients with actionable advice

and recommendations they need to achieve their

ambitions and stay ahead of the market.

We provide our services through four business units:

Drewry Maritime Advisors supports the needs of

shipping and financial institutions; Drewry Supply

Chain Advisors provides sea freight procurement

support to retailers and manufacturers; Drewry

Maritime Research publishes market-leading research

on every key maritime sector; and Drewry Maritime

Financial Research delivers investment research

services on listed companies operating in the industry.

http://home.drewry.co.uk/pdf/Drewry_Capabilities_brochure_v2.pdf

Our four business units

Our research provides

robust analysis and

balanced opinion for those

within shipping, finance

and logistics who need to

make informed business

decisions.

The range of titles and

reports we publish keeps

our clients up to date on

every key maritime sector,

from dry bulk to chemicals

and from LPG to ferries,

with detailed analysis and

insightful commentaries

on past, present and

future sector performance.

Our Maritime Advisors

offer a wealth of

experience across

maritime sectors and lead

the industry in their

respective areas of

specialisation. Our sector

expertise covers ports,

bulk shipping, liner

shipping, shipyards, ferry

and RoRo, and technical

ship management.

Our combination of deep

sector understanding,

technical expertise and

market-leading

insight increases our

confidence in our actions

and ability to deliver the

right results for our

clients.

We focus on advising

users of international

multi-modal transport

services, taking our

extensive understanding

of the industry and

applying it to all stages of

the supply chain.

Through our supply chain

research catalogue and

industry knowledge, we

offer a range of

procurement support

services that empower

importers and exporters.

Our services provide them

with the tools, resources

and tailored advice they

need to more effectively

manage their transport

service provider and

international supply

chains.

Combining our market-

leading resources with

seasoned sector expertise

and commercial

awareness, we are now

able to offer highly

differentiated and

comprehensive investment

research service to

prospective investors in

publically listed maritime

and shipping companies.

Our services cover a range

of report formats,

supporting resources and

sector-orientated webinars

aimed at providing our

clients with a complete

picture of the organisations

under our coverage.

www.drewry.co.uk4 New Tigers Re-Shaping Intra Asia

www.drewry.co.uk

Globalization evolving


Globalization in transition

Pendulum swings in different direction. Regional trade ties will be deepening.

Increasing

manufacturing

cost

Manufacturing

shifting

Higher purchasing

power

Emerging market

consumption

Lower tariffUS - China trade

war; Brexite

Impact and

Implications

?


Asia: Who will be new tiger(s)? Role of old tigers?

Which country will take the lead in the next decade(s), and how the regional

supply chain will develop.

[1960-1990]

Four Asian Tigers

[1990-2017]

China

[2018-Future]

- Which economy will

be the new tiger(s)?

- Role of old tigers?

- How regional supply

chain will develop?

Which trading route

will be booming?


www.drewry.co.uk

Intra Asia Trade


Key drivers –ASEAN Volume of import/export of goods

Global average of volume of import of goods: 4-5%. ASEAN import/export of

goods: 9-10% per year. Double of global average.

Average growth 2010-18

5.0%

4.9%

7.6%

6.0%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Volume of Im/Export of goods - Annual Growth: ASEAN vs World (2000-2013, %)

World - Vol of import of goods

World - Vol of export of good

ASEAN - Vol of import of goods

ASEAN - Vol of export of goods

Source：IMF


Key drivers – Who will be future new Asia Tiger(s)?

ASEAN GDP grew at CAGR 5.6% 2015-18. Star performers includes Cambodia,

Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam.

4.4%

10.1%

5.3%

8.3%

4.8%

6.3%

4.2% 4.5%

6.9%

8.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Real GDP (2015-2018, Bn$)

2015 2016 2017 2018 CAGR % (RHS)

5.6%

ASEAN GDP Growth %

Source：ASEAN website


Merchandised trade – Which country is best performer?

4%

9%

14%

19%

24%

29%

Merchandised Trade Market Share % of ASEAN (2004-2017, %)

Malaysia[MY]

Singapore[SG]

Indonesia[ID]

Thailand[TH]

Viet Nam[VN]

Philippines[PH]

Re merchandised trade (including container and bulk) market share, Malaysia and

Singapore are trending down, Vietnam and Thailand are uprising.



Container trade – Which container port(s) got benefited?

In terms of container trade, Cat Lai and TJ Priok taking more market share.

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Port Throughput Market Share % of Selected ASEAN Ports (2010-2018,%)

PORTKLANG

CAT LAI (HOCHI MINH)

LAEMCHABANG

TANJUNGPRIOK(JAKARTA)MANILA

HAIPHONG

Source: Drewry Maritime Research


Which route is emerging? Old tigers role?

Long haul routes stayed stable, some routes are losing market, and only one

trading route with remarkable growth is FE–ASEAN.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

ASEAN Trading Partner: By Value Market Share (2004-2017, %)

ASEAN

Europe

FE - North

FE - South

NA

SA

Others

Source: ASEAN Website


Old tigers, but which?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

ASEAN - FE North Trade: Market Share Split (2004-2017, %)

Korea,

Republic of

[KR]

Japan [JP]

China

(People's

Republic

of) [CN]

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%ASEAN - China Trade: Export vs

Import

Exportto CN

Importfm CN

30%

50%

ASEAN - Japan Trade: Export vs Import Expor

t toJPImport fmJP

30%

40%

50%

60%

ASEAN - N. Korea Trade: Export vs Import

Exportto KR

Importfm KR



Outlook – Who will be future new ASEAN Tiger(s)?

-4.0

-2.0

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Growth of volume of exports of goods: (2011-2023, %)

Indonesia

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Source：IMF


Outlook – Which industry shall we target?

On CN-ASEAN route, key commodities are machinery&electronics, textile, metal,

plastic&rubber, and chemical. Vietnam FDI is manufacturing concentrated.

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

Machinery,

electrical

equipment,

electronics

Textile Metal Plastic &

Rubber

Chemical

Top-5 commodities on CN -Asean emerging countries

trade (Bn $, 2018)

Vietnam Thailand Mymmar

Vietnam FDI Inward by value by share

Manufacturing

Real estate activities

Electricity, gas, stream and

air conditioning supply

Accommodation and food

service activities

Construction

Others

Thai FDI Inward by value by share

Metal, machinary, vehicles

Service

Electornics

Chemicals

Ceramic and non-ferrous

metalArgriculture

Light industry

Source：Ningbo Shipping Exchange


Outlook – Opportunities vs Challenges

Challenges:

1. Economy and currency volatility

2. New joiners and Overcapacity

3. New logistics platforms

Opportunities:

1. Intra-Asia trade ties deepening, FE-SEA will be booming

2. Old tigers still on play, CN/KR-SEA route leading.

3. New tigers reshaping Intra-Asia route.


[email protected]

www.drewry.co.uk

UK

15-17 Christopher Street

London

EC2A 2BSUnited Kingdom

INDIA

4th Floor, Tower C

Pioneer Urban Square

Sector 62, GurugramHaryana - 122101

India

SINGAPORE

#13-02 Tower Fifteen

15 Hoe Chiang Road

Singapore 089316

CHINA

Unit D01, Level 10,

Shinmay Union Square

Tower 2, 506 Shangcheng RoadPudong, Shanghai 200120

T +44 20 7538 0191 T +91 124 497 4979 T +65 6220 9890 T +86 21 5081 0508

Thank you!

new tigers re-shaping intra asia15 hoe chiang road singapore 089316 china unit d01, level 10,...

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