new station line capacity summary 18 june 2007 1 …bailey.persona-pi.com/public-inquiries/brent...

New Station Line Capacity Summary 18 June 2007 Tech Note D108215/0011 Rev 01

D108215-0011 - New Station Line Capacity R1 of 10

1 Introduction The purpose of this note is to summarise the Transportation assessment output and set out the capacity of the FCC (First Capital Connect) train services on the midland main line (mml) from Bedford through as far as London Blackfriars on the Moorgate / Snow Hill lines.

The TA (Transportation Assessment) is a very substantial study that considers the whole transportation offering from walking through to all public transport modes and includes road traffic. It is the culmination of many individual sequential and iterative studies starting with the LTS strategic model of growth. Further investigation of travel patterns (likely origin and destinations), employment patterns, validation of models against records, assessment of road traffic flows and junctions, assessments of public transport mode use (rail, bus, tram, underground, DLR) and the infrastructure constraints informs the inputs to the Railplan model. The Railplan model is used to assign the public transport demand to the available modes. The TA and all the supporting iterative technical notes and study reports are available for review. This note focuses on the outputs of the ‘Railplan’ public transport modelling studies.

The process diagram below represents this process and the arrow indicates the stage at which the Railplan assignment is undertaken.



2 Railplan

2.1 Transport for London (TfL) Model Railplan is the TfL public transport model that Scott Wilson has used under licence from TfL to study the future public transport usage when the proposed Brent Cross Cricklewood development is complete using a projection year of 2026. The model used was derived from the TfL model with additional granularity (size of origin and destination zones) within and adjacent to the proposed development.

2.2 Model Validation (2006) The model has a representation of the existing train services running on the mml and other rail, underground and bus services and a model validation exercise was undertaken using the base year 2006 to satisfy TfL that the model was representative of known recorded data. The focus for this note is on the mml loadings and the output from the validation runs in terms of total line loading in the peak periods, and the peak hour in the period, form the initial loading representative of today. (pale blue bars on attached Graphs 1 & 3)

2.3 Do Minimum Model (2026) This model has no enhanced train services, assuming the 2006 timetabling and, Moorgate station is retained as a destination, equating to 9 tph NB and 12 tph SB services past Cricklewood in the AM peak period, reversed in the PM peak period. It assumes the LTS growth model for London. Output from this provides a growth factor on the line without the development, new station, or any proposed enhanced services. At this stage the rail infrastructure is assumed not to have changed. (green bars on attached Graphs 1 & 3)

2.4 Do Something Model (2026) This model has enhanced FCC train services of 16 tph in the peak periods, and assumes the LTS growth model for London plus the demand generated from the development. In addition the new Cricklewood station has a service pattern with all semi fast FCC services (12 tph) stopping, whilst the remaining FCC (4 tph) services continue to stop at the existing (old) station. Output from this provides the projected additional demand as a result of the development incorporating the new station and the attractiveness of the enhanced FCC services. (orange bars on attached Graphs 1 & 3)

2.5 Train service Capacity Railplan has a train service representation that is based on any given stopping pattern being run at a fixed headway (equivalent to tph). This results in the peak period service quantum being slightly inconsistent with a service that has different frequencies and service patterns in the peak and off peak periods. Railplan has parameters within it that set the number of train seats (seated capacity) dependant on the type of rolling stock and a factor that then determines the total capacity (seated and standing). There are three rolling stock types used in Railplan for the FCC services, currently Cl 319 and in the



future Cl 377 and Cl 450. Extracts from Railplan showing the seated and total capacity of the trains is shown below.

Class 319

Class 377 and Class 450

The seated capacities have been compared with actual stock formations and are correct representations. The ratio of total capacity to seated capacity of 1.7 for existing Cl 319 but a higher value of 3.2 for future Cl 377 and Cl 450 trains are not readily explained however the effect is to reduce the capacity constraint of the rail services, or put another way not restricting the attractiveness of rail services by allowing higher acceptable loadings. We consider that this 3.2 factor is equivalent to a crush-loaded vehicle and have additionally compared line loadings with a lower factor of 2.0 that we understand is in line with current train operating companies view on acceptable and regularly achievable loadings.

In addition the capacity based on stated train per hour and length in the peak period have been calculated as set out in the table below. This calculation has revealed that Railplan appears to underestimate capacity by approximately 20%. The calculated seated and total capacity based on the expected trains per hour is included in this presentation for completeness.

Origin Services Seats CapacityBedford 8 x 12 car Cl 377 @ 750 seats 6,000 12,000Luton as Bedford plus 4 x 12 car Cl 377 @ 750 seats 9,000 18,000St Albans as Luton plus 4 x 8 car Cl 450 @ 540 seats 11,160 22,320

The line capacities are shown on the attached graphs as line series where the same colour line is used for each method of capacity definition (‘existing’, ‘Railplan’ and ‘calculated on tph’) with the open shaped ident relating to seated and the filled ident line the total capacity



2.6 Graphical Summary Using the above data sets the following graphs were produced and are attached.

Graph 1 – FCC Railplan NB AM Peak Hour (8-9)

Graph 3 – FCC Railplan SB AM Peak Hour (8-9)

On both charts the vertical bars are the addition of base year loading (2006) plus the do minimum additional loading (underlying growth to 2026) plus the do something additional loading (development with new station and enhanced FCC services) which culminate to represent the predicted line loading. The lines are then the various representations of the various train service capacities as discussed above. It is evident from the graphs that using an accepted line capacity (at a 2:1 ratio seated to total) that the predicted loadings are acceptable.

Care should be exercised when considering the data south of Kings Cross Thameslink as in the do something scenario (2026) this introduces the capacity of the enhanced services using the East Coast Mainline (ecml) routes, which are reflected in increased capacity. These services however have little if any effect on the FCC (mml) service utilisation and the calculated seats line reflects this by not including the ecml services.

Similarly the drop in capacity and utilisation south of Blackfriars should be treated with care as less than a third of services pass through London Bridge today or in the 2026 scenario, the majority going via Elephant & Castle.

2.7 Northbound AM Commentary (Graph 1) Shows sufficient capacity with additional demand utilising services with low counter peak usage without the development.

2.8 Southbound AM Commentary (Graph 3) Shows sufficient capacity. That is not to say that all passengers will get seats, however it is anticipated that on the longer journeys beyond St Albans passengers are likely to be seated. This equates well with the desire for passengers on journeys longer than 20 minutes to be seated.

3 Planet and Thameslink 2000 By swapping the 2006 and do minimum loading data with data received from DfT of the loadings used in the TL2000 case, the following graphs are created.

Graph 2 – FCC TL2000 Planet NB AM Peak Hour (8-9)

Graph 4 – FCC TL2000 Planet SB AM Peak Hour (8-9)

We only received data for the Hendon – Kentish town section of the line and have despite several requests been unable to obtain the same data for Bedford to Blackfriars. For the above graphs it was assumed that 20% of the loading would originate at Bedford and then an interpolated straight line was taken to reach loading at Hendon. It was assumed that loadings south of Kentish Town would be shown as constant with the exception of London Bridge – Blackfriars which would be reduced by a third to reflect the relative train service reduction These are a crude first estimation and will need to be revised, however they are useful in understanding the wider picture.



It shows that the Planet TL2000 data is approx 15-20% higher than the Railplan equivalent numbers, however the result is that the overall loading is still below the acceptable capacity (based on 2:1 factor).

This process although crude involves an amount of double counting as the TL2000 data is total loading resulting from enhanced services which the Railplan model also incorporates within the do-something case. It would be necessary to rerun the Railplan model three times (with TL2000 and no development, without TL2000 and with development, with TL2000 and development) and then to interpolate relative changes to try an isolate the effects of the service enhancements as compared with the increased demand from the development, which is influenced by the change in service.

A degree of comfort can be drawn from this simple comparison that the additional demand from the development is not inconsistent or incompatible with the expected additional demand from enhanced services. I.e. they are both catered for by the enhanced train services.

4 Origin and Destination Data from Railplan. In order to gain an appreciation of the geographic spread of the journeys made on the FCC services, the Railplan model was interrogated to give the origins and destinations of users of the new station. This is presented in Graph 5 (fig 11.2)– AM Users of New Cricklewood Station (Alighters) and Graph 6 (fig 11.2 (local))

The areas coloured RED are the origin of people arriving at the station and getting off the train and the BLUE is their destination having got off the train. Care is needed in interpretation as the colours relate to gross numbers in an area and do not reflect density of people. E.g. the large area surrounding St Albans. This can be better appreciated with reference to fig 11.2 (local) where much smaller areas have the equivalent numbers

It should be noted that this data is looking at the use of Thameslink services and not all the public transport to the site. This explains why there are no trips shown from the west of London, as potential travellers from this locality will use other modes, most likely the underground or buses. It should additionally be noted that higher-level models set the origin and destination and Railplan performs an assignment of trips not the generation of them.

5 Conclusion

The modelling and analysis supports the view that there is sufficient capacity on the train services based on 16 tph and service pattern assumed. It is clear that sufficient capacity up to and beyond 2026 is predicted, with a small amount of un-used capacity beyond 2026.

The simple comparison with the TL2000 predicted loadings supports the view that the TL2000 works and service enhancements are compatible with the additional demand the development will bring to the Cricklewood area.

Prepared By: James Brown. Reviewed by: C J Moore



Brent Cross Cricklewood DevelopmentThameslink Service Loading - AM Peak Hour (0800 - 0900)

Northbound

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Development Loading & Additional Do-Something Thameslink Loading Seated Railplan Capacity Do-Something

Total Railplan Capacity Do-Something Calculated Total Railplan Capacity Do-Something (seated * 2)

Seated Railplan Capacity Do-Minimum Total Railplan Capacity Do-Minimum

Calc Seats Calc2:1 cap

Graph 1 – FCC Railplan NB AM Peak Hour (8-9)




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DfT Planet Development Loading & Additional Do-Something Thameslink Loading

Seated Railplan Capacity Do-Something Total Railplan Capacity Do-Something

Calculated Total Railplan Capacity Do-Something (seated * 2) Seated Railplan Capacity Do-Minimum

Total Railplan Capacity Do-Minimum Calc Seats

Calc2:1 cap

Graph 2 – FCC TL2000 Planet NB AM Peak Hour (8-9)




Southbound

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Base Year Loading Total Do-Minimum Loading

Development Loading & Additional Do-Something Thameslink Loading Seated Railplan Capacity Do-Something

Total Railplan Capacity Do-Something Calculated Railplan Capacity Do-Something (seated * 2)

Seated Railplan Capacity Do-Minimum Total Railplan Capacity Do-Minimum

Calc Seats Calc2:1 cap

Graph 3 – FCC Railplan SB AM Peak Hour (8-9)




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DfT Planet Development Loading & Additional Do-Something Thameslink LoadingSeated Railplan Capacity Do-Something Total Railplan Capacity Do-SomethingCalculated Railplan Capacity Do-Something (seated * 2) Seated Railplan Capacity Do-MinimumTotal Railplan Capacity Do-Minimum Calc SeatsCalc2:1 cap

Graph 4 – FCC TL2000 Planet SB AM Peak Hour (8-9)



Following 2 Pages Graph 5 (figure 11.2)– AM Users of New Cricklewood Station (Alighters) And Graph 6 (figure 11.2 (local) )– AM Users of New Cricklewood Station (Alighters) enlarged area local to development.

BXC Redevelopment Site

Westminster

Harrow

Ealing

Tottenham

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Brixton

Surbiton

West Ham

Lewisham

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HeathrowAirport

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FIGURE 11.2

Revision Details

Drawing Status

Job Title

ByCheck

Date Suffix

Copyright

Drawing Title

Scale at A3 1:150,000

This map is reproduced from Ordnance Surveymaterial with the permission of Ordnance Surveyon behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty'sStationary Office.© Crown copyrightUnauthorised reproduction infringes Crowncopyright and may lead to prosecution orcivil proceedings.Scott Wilson GD0100031673 2007

THIS DRAWING MAY BE USED ONLY FORTHE PURPOSE INTENDED AND ONLY

WRITTEN DIMENSIONS SHALL BE USED

NOTES

AM USERS OFNEW CRICKLEWOOD STATION

(ALIGHTERS)

BRENT CROSSCRICKLEWOOD

FINAL

Scott HouseBasing View, BasingstokeHampshire, RG21 4JGTelephone (01256) 310200Fax (01256) 310201www.scottwilson.com

Scott Wilson

Drawn Approved

Stage 1 check Stage 2 check Originated Date

BB PASCJM TK

Railway LinesRailway Stations

Trips alighting at new Cricklewood StationDestination

500 >200 - 500150 - 200100 - 15075 - 10050 - 7540 - 5030 - 4020 - 3010 - 205 - 10< 5 / No Trips Recorded

Trips alighting at new Cricklewood StationOrigin


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FIGURE 11.2 (LOCAL)

Revision Details

Drawing Status

Job Title

ByCheck

Date Suffix

Copyright

Drawing Title

Scale at A3 1:25,000

This map is reproduced from Ordnance Surveymaterial with the permission of Ordnance Surveyon behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty'sStationary Office.© Crown copyrightUnauthorised reproduction infringes Crowncopyright and may lead to prosecution orcivil proceedings.Scott Wilson GD0100031673 2007

THIS DRAWING MAY BE USED ONLY FORTHE PURPOSE INTENDED AND ONLY

WRITTEN DIMENSIONS SHALL BE USED

NOTES

AM USERS OFNEW CRICKLEWOOD STATION

(ALIGHTERS)

BRENT CROSSCRICKLEWOOD

FINAL

Scott HouseBasing View, BasingstokeHampshire, RG21 4JGTelephone (01256) 310200Fax (01256) 310201www.scottwilson.com

Scott Wilson

Drawn Approved

Stage 1 check Stage 2 check Originated Date

BB PASCJM TK

Railway LinesRailway Stations

Trips alighting at New Cricklewood StationDestination


Trips alighting at New Cricklewood StationOrigin


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