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Australian crop report

Prepared by the Australian Bureau of Agriculturaland Resource Economics and Sciences

No. 178June 2016

Australian crop report June 2016 ABARES

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The next issue of Australian crop report is scheduled to be released on 13 September 2016.

In the next issue:2016–17 winter crop area estimates and production forecasts updated2016–17 summer crop area and production forecasts

AcknowledgementsThis report was prepared by Benjamin Agbenyegah, Dean Mansfield, David Mobsby, Nicholas Perndt, Christopher Price and Kyann Zhang.

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ContentsOverview 1

Climatic and agronomic conditions 4

Crop conditions and production forecasts, by state 12

New South Wales 12

Queensland 13

Victoria 15

South Australia 16

Western Australia 17

Statistical tables 18

TablesTable 1 Winter crop area, Australia 2

Table 2 Winter crop production, Australia 2

Table 3 Summer crop plantings and production, Australia 3

Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts 10

Table 5 Winter crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2016–17 12

Table 6 Summer crop estimates, New South Wales, 2015–16 13

Table 7 Winter crop forecasts, Queensland, 2016–17 14

Table 8 Summer crop estimates, Queensland, 2015–16 14

Table 9 Winter crop forecasts, Victoria, 2016–17 15

Table 10 Winter crop forecasts, South Australia, 2016–17 16

Table 11 Winter crop forecasts, Western Australia, 2016–17 17

Table 12 Australian winter crop production and area 18

Table 13 Australian summer crop production and area 18

Table 14 State production, major crops 19

Table 15 State production, other crops 21

Table 16 Australian supply and disposal of wheat, canola and pulses 23

Table 17 Australian supply and disposal of coarse grains 24

Table 18 Grains and oilseed prices 25

ii


MapsMap 1 Australian cropping region rainfall percentiles, 1 March to 31 May 2016

4

Map 2 Australian cropping region rainfall percentiles, May 2016 5

Map 3 Australian cropping region rainfall outlook, June to August 2016 5

Map 4 Australian cropping region upper layer soil moisture, at 7 June 2016 7

Map 5 Australian cropping region lower layer soil moisture, at 7 June 2016 8

Map 6 Probability of exceeding long term simulated median shire wheat yield9

Map 7 Australian rainfall districts 11

iii


OverviewThe start to the 2016–17 winter crop season has been generally favourable, especially in Western Australia, which had above average rainfall in most parts of the cropping region during autumn. While rainfall was more variable in the eastern states during early autumn, and generally lower than average during April, most cropping regions in south eastern Australia had above average rainfall in May. This rainfall improved planting conditions in much of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Rainfall in May was average to below average in cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland, but there was widespread above average rainfall in early June in these regions.

According to the latest three month rainfall outlook (June to August 2016) issued by the Bureau ‐of Meteorology on 26 May 2016, winter rainfall is likely to be above average in most cropping regions.

The total area planted to winter crops in Australia is forecast to increase by around 1 per cent in 2016–17 to 22.3 million hectares. The area planted to wheat and barley is forecast to decrease but this is expected to be more than offset by a forecast increase in the area planted to canola, oats and pulses. The area planted to canola is forecast to rise in all major producing states, largely reflecting favourable expected returns compared with wheat and barley. Sowing conditions for canola were particularly favourable in Western Australia. The area planted to oats and pulses is forecast to rise in all states.

For the major winter crops, the area planted to wheat is forecast to decline by 1 per cent in 2016–17 to 12.7 million hectares, and the area planted to barley is forecast to decrease by around 1 per cent to 4.1 million hectares. In contrast, the area planted to canola is expected to rise by 4 per cent to 2.5 million hectares. Among other crops, the area planted to oats is forecast to rise by 9 per cent to 909 000 hectares, and the area planted to chickpeas is forecast to rise by 8 per cent to 717 000 hectares.

Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2016–17 to 42.3 million tonnes, which largely reflects an assumed increase in average crop yields. For the major crops, wheat production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 25.4 million tonnes, barley production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 9.0 million tonnes and canola production is forecast to rise by 10 per cent to 3.2 million tonnes. Among other crops, production of oats is forecast to rise by 19 per cent to 1.6 million tonnes and chickpea production is forecast to rise by 8 per cent to 1.1 million tonnes.

1


Table 1 Winter crop area, Australia

Year New South Wales’000 ha

Victoria

’000 ha

Queensland

’000 ha

South Australia’000 ha

Western Australia’000 ha

Australia

’000 ha

2006–07 5 671 3 082 808 4 141 6 477 20 207

2007–08 6 312 3 375 873 4 131 7 265 21 978

2008–09 6 295 3 492 1 208 3 979 7 899 22 901

2009–10 6 106 3 488 1 173 3 783 8 271 22 844

2010–11 6 158 3 457 1 217 3 821 7 715 22 392

2011–12 5 969 3 411 1 205 3 838 8 252 22 693

2012–13 5 852 3 457 1 222 3 776 8 097 22 421

2013–14 5 314 3 283 1 105 3 448 8 249 21 420

2014–15 5 491 3 304 995 3 639 8 313 21 760

2015–16 s 5 674 3 242 1 234 3 568 8 378 22 115

2016–17 f 5 714 3 292 1 238 3 567 8 441 22 271

% change 2015–16 to 2016–17

1 2 0 0 1 1

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat.

Table 2 Winter crop production, Australia

Year New South Waleskt

Victoria

kt

Queensland

kt

South Australiakt

Western Australiakt

Australia

kt

2006–07 3 794 1 748 924 2 793 8 278 17 580

2007–08 3 999 4 692 1 194 4 706 10 761 25 415

2008–09 9 438 3 887 2 326 4 863 13 785 34 378

2009–10 7 787 5 889 1 617 7 035 12 943 35 344

2010–11 14 784 7 625 1 821 9 316 8 044 41 672

2011–12 11 952 7 352 2 329 7 371 16 600 45 670

2012–13 11 123 6 886 2 156 6 470 11 243 37 934

2013–14 9 773 6 773 1 516 7 221 16 510 41 878

2014–15 10 445 5 117 1 464 7 439 14 662 39 197

2015–16 s 11 408 4 156 2 181 7 174 14 666 39 640

2016–17 f 11 528 5 667 2 217 7 291 15 489 42 253

% change 2015–16 to 2016–17

1 36 2 2 6 7

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat.

Total Australian summer crop production is estimated to have fallen by 13 per cent in 2015–16 to 3.7 million tonnes, largely because of a fall in rice production.

Grain sorghum production is estimated to have fallen by 8 per cent in 2015–16 to 2.0 million tonnes, reflecting a fall in both area and yields. The planted area fell from 732 000 hectares in 2014–15 to 681 000 hectares in 2015–16.

2


Rice production is estimated to have declined by almost two thirds in 2015–16 to 250 000 tonnes. This decline reflects a fall in planted area in response to reduced supplies of irrigation water in the major rice producing regions.

The 2015–16 cotton harvest has finished and production is estimated to have risen by 10 per cent to around 579 000 tonnes of cotton lint and 819 000 tonnes of cottonseed, driven by a 37 per cent increase in planted area to 270 000 hectares. Above average rainfall during planting improved water storage levels in the dams that serve Australia’s irrigated cotton growing regions and also supported an estimated 60 000 hectares planted to dryland cotton. However, the average yields are estimated to have fallen by around 20 per cent from the record highs in 2014–15.

Table 3 Summer crop plantings and production, Australia

Year New South Wales Queensland Australia

’000 ha kt ’000 ha kt ’000 ha kt

2005–06 776 2 791 645 1 516 1 433 4 352

2006–07 338 1 037 545 1 099 918 2 166

2007–08 398 1 668 791 2 877 1 199 4 567

2008–09 402 1 430 746 2 350 1 156 3 794

2009–10 381 1 405 514 1 342 903 2 764

2010–11 713 2 514 790 1 901 1 514 4 446

2011–12 757 3 064 783 2 379 1 558 5 494

2012–13 711 3 205 687 2 250 1 411 5 505

2013–14 568 2 317 559 1 469 1 139 3 846

2014–15 435 2 044 696 2 134 1 149 4 262

2015–16 s 436 1 586 725 2 050 1 177 3 708

% change 2014–15 to 2015–16 0 –22 4 –4 2 –13

s ABARES estimate.Note: State production includes cottonseed, grain sorghum, corn (maize), mung beans, rice, peanuts, soybeans and sunflower. Total for Australia also includes navy beans and small areas and volumes of summer crops in other states.

3


Climatic and agronomic conditionsIn early 2016 hotter and drier than normal conditions across large areas of eastern Australia were unfavourable for crop production and depleted soil moisture reserves. However, rainfall in May and early June improved soil moisture levels in many cropping regions in time for the sowing of winter crops.

During autumn 2016 (March to May), rainfall was close to average across cropping regions in Victoria and most of New South Wales. Rainfall was above average in cropping regions in South Australia and Western Australia, and below average to extremely low across Queensland and northern New South Wales cropping regions (Map 1).

Map 1 Australian cropping region rainfall percentiles, 1 March to 31 May 2016

Note: Rainfall percentiles are displayed for wheat–sheep zone only.Spatial rainfall percentile analyses are based on historical monthly rainfall data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. The rainfall percentile map shows how rainfall recorded during March to May 2016 compared with the rainfall recorded for that same period during the entire historical record (1900 to present). To calculate percentiles, the ranked rainfall data is divided into one hundred equal parts. Fifth percentile rainfall for March to May 2016 means that total rainfall recorded during this period was at or below the lowest five per cent of all March to May rainfall totals during the entire historical record. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Despite the dry conditions during early 2016, May and early June were generally wetter than average across most eastern Australian cropping regions, easing rainfall deficiencies in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland.

During May 2016, rainfall was well above average in cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia recorded well above average rainfall (Map 2). Rainfall was close to average in cropping regions of Western Australia, northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. However, rainfall in May 2016 remained below average for the central Queensland cropping region.

During the first week of June 2016, an east coast low pressure system brought widespread rainfall to eastern Australia. More than 25 millimetres of rain was recorded during this seven day period across much of southern and central Queensland, central and eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria and most of Tasmania, with many locations recording rainfall totals well above their June averages.

4


Map 2 Australian cropping region rainfall percentiles, May 2016

Note: Rainfall percentiles are displayed for wheat–sheep zone only.Spatial rainfall percentile analyses are based on historical monthly rainfall data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. The rainfall percentile map shows how rainfall recorded during May 2016 compared with the rainfall recorded for that same period during the entire historical record (1900 to present). To calculate percentiles, the ranked rainfall data is divided into one hundred equal parts. Fifth percentile rainfall for May 2016 means that total rainfall recorded during this period was at or below the lowest five per cent of all May rainfall totals during the entire historical record.Source: Bureau of Meteorology

The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal rainfall outlook for June to August 2016 indicates that a wetter than average winter is likely for most Australian cropping regions (Map 3). The highest chance of exceeding average winter rainfall in the eastern cropping regions.

Map 3 Australian cropping region rainfall outlook, June to August 2016

Note: Rainfall outlook is displayed for wheat–sheep zone only.The map shows the likelihood of exceeding the 1981–2010 median rainfall. Median rainfall is defined as the 50th percentile calculated from the 1981–2010 reference period.Source: Bureau of Meteorology

5


The outlook for temperatures from June to August 2016 indicates that maximum temperatures are likely to be average to below average across most cropping regions of Australia. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average in eastern cropping regions, below average in southern cropping regions, and close to average in western cropping regions.

In late May 2016 the Bureau of Meteorology reported that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, trade winds and atmospheric indicators had all returned to near normal levels and that climate models indicated little chance of ocean temperatures returning to El Niño levels in the near future. Therefore, mid May 2016 would mark the end of the 2015–16 El Niño event.

All eight international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology in late May 2016 indicated that the tropical Pacific Ocean was likely to continue to cool. Six of the eight models suggested that La Niña conditions were likely to form during the winter period (June–August). However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios. La Niña is often but not always associated with above average winter–spring rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia.

Climate model outlooks for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) suggest that a negative IOD event is likely to develop during winter 2016. However, model accuracy for the IOD at this time of year is low. A negative IOD typically brings increased winter–spring rainfall to southern Australia.

Australia’s climate continues to be influenced by well above average temperatures across the entire Indian Ocean. The warmth in the Indian Ocean may provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during winter.

Rainfall during May and early June 2016 increased relative upper and lower layer soil moisture compared with the previous months. In particular, a significant rainfall event in early June increased soil moisture levels in cropping regions across eastern Australia, especially in New South Wales and Queensland.

Map 4 and Map 5 show the relative levels of modelled upper layer (~0.1 metres) and lower layer (~0.1 to ~1 metres) soil moisture for cropping zones across Australia at 7 June 2016. Upper layer soil moisture responds quickly to seasonal conditions and often shows a pattern that reflects rainfall and temperature events in the days leading up to the analysis date. Lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to seasonal conditions and tends to reflect the accumulated effects of events that have occurred over longer periods.

Relative upper layer soil moisture at 7 June 2016 was predominantly above average for most cropping regions across Australia (Map 4). Relative upper layer soil moisture was well above average across cropping regions in New South Wales. In cropping regions in Victoria and South Australia, relative upper layer soil moisture was close to average.

6


Map 4 Australian cropping region upper layer soil moisture, at 7 June 2016

Note: Relative upper layer soil moisture is displayed for wheat–sheep zone only.Soil moisture estimates are relative to the long term record and ranked in percentiles. Estimates are used to compare the upper layer soil moisture from 7 June 2016 and are ranked according to percentiles for each 7 June in the 1911–2015 historical reference period. The extremely high band indicates where the estimated soil moisture level on 7 June 2016 was in the wettest 10 per cent of estimated soil moisture levels for 7 June during the 1911–2015 reference period. The extremely low band indicates where the estimated soil moisture level on 7 June 2016 was in the driest 10 per cent of estimated soil moisture levels for 7 June during the 1911–2015 reference period. Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

The relative lower layer soil moisture at 7 June 2016 reflects the above average May rainfall and the significant rainfall event in early June. Lower layer soil moisture was generally average for most Australian cropping regions (Map 5). However, there was some regional variability, with well above average lower layer soil moisture in New South Wales cropping regions and below average lower layer soil moisture in isolated parts of the cropping regions in Western Australia and eastern Queensland. Crop development in areas of above average lower layer soil moisture will be less reliant on in crop rainfall than in areas with below average lower layer soil moisture.

7


Map 5 Australian cropping region lower layer soil moisture, at 7 June 2016

Note: Relative lower layer soil moisture is displayed for wheat–sheep zone only.Soil moisture estimates are relative to the long term record and ranked in percentiles. Estimates are used to compare the lower layer soil moisture from 7 June 2016 and are ranked according to percentiles for each 7 June in the 1911–2015 historical reference period. The extremely high band indicates where the estimated soil moisture level on 7 June 2016 was in the wettest 10 per cent of estimated soil moisture levels on 7 June during the 1911–2015 reference period. The extremely low band indicates where the estimated soil moisture level

for 7 June 2016 was in the driest 10 per cent of estimated soil moisture levels for 7 June during the 1911–2015 reference period. Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

The University of Queensland’s Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation’s shire scale wheat forecasting system produces yield predictions for wheat. The system combines starting soil moisture conditions with the seasonal outlook, including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index.

At the beginning of June 2016, the probability of exceeding median wheat yields was generally average or above average in most cropping regions across western and southern Australia (Map 6). Parts of Queensland and northern New South Wales show reduced chances of exceeding median yield (between 10 per cent and 40 per cent). This pattern is consistent with rainfall and soil moisture conditions as at the end of May 2016.

8


Map 6 Probability of exceeding long term simulated median shire wheat yield

Note: Forecast median shire yield ranked relative to all years (%), given the Southern Oscillation Index phase was “rapidly rising” during April-May.Source: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation, University of Queensland

9


Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts

District District no.

March median

mm

March 2016

mm

April median

mm

April2016

mm

May median

mm

May 2016

mm

New South Wales

NW Plains (W) 52 34 15 25 12 27 34

NW Plains (E) 53 44 17 27 15 32 36

NW Slopes (N) 54 54 24 30 20 37 35

NW Slopes (S) 55 45 20 33 10 34 46

N Tablelands (N) 56 72 41 38 29 39 38

CW Plains (S) 50 26 16 24 34 29 59

CW Plains (N) 51 27 10 17 25 29 57

CW Slopes (N) 64 40 22 32 36 35 64

CW Slopes (S) 65 37 31 34 33 38 61

C Tablelands (N) 62 46 35 37 13 37 61

C Tablelands (S) 63 51 40 50 28 42 48

Riverina (W) 75 19 16 18 16 26 67

Riverina (E) 74 24 21 27 16 30 89

SW Slopes (N) 73 37 42 35 15 43 99

SW Slopes (S) 72 56 62 63 26 78 149

Victoria

N Mallee 76 14 9 15 5 25 46

S Mallee 77 14 19 17 6 31 49

N Wimmera 78 16 28 21 7 39 61

S Wimmera 79 21 31 30 15 51 89

Lower North 80 18 19 24 14 35 78

Upper North 81 26 28 30 19 48 76

Lower North East 82 52 51 57 24 86 176

North Central 88 39 49 55 31 67 93

Western Plains 89 31 31 40 20 55 84

West Coast 90 38 33 54 38 73 125

Queensland

Central Highlands 35 49 39 25 6 22 4

Maranoa 43 46 22 21 6 24 15

W Darling Downs 42 50 33 24 8 29 18

E Darling Downs 41 54 36 23 14 30 22

Moreton S Coast 40 98 74 56 16 50 17

continued …

10


Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts (continued)

District District no.

March median

mm

March 2016

mm

April median

mm

April 2016

mm

May median

mm

May 2016

mm

South Australia

Upper South East 25B 14 34 30 11 45 51

Murray Mallee 25A 10 30 16 7 30 46

Murray River 24 11 31 15 7 26 40

East Central 23 19 44 38 14 62 93

Yorke Peninsula 22A 13 29 25 15 44 67

Lower North 21 14 41 22 9 36 52

Upper North 19 10 33 13 4 25 44

Western Agricultural 18

9 40 18 11 25 33

Western Australia

North Coast 8 10 31 15 45 45 34

Central Coast 9 11 57 35 67 101 84

Northern Central 10

14 73 17 42 39 40

South Central 10A 15 68 23 41 48 42

South East 12 20 51 16 14 21 18

Note: Median rainfall is calculated over the period 1900 to May 2016. Australian rainfall districts are shown in Map 7.Source: Bureau of Meteorology monthly district rainfall reports

Map 7 Australian rainfall districts

Note: Displayed for major cropping districts only. See Table 4 for district names and observed district rainfall.Source: Bureau of Meteorology

11


Crop conditions and production forecasts, by stateNew South WalesPlanting conditions for winter crops in New South Wales were largely favourable from March to early June, despite generally below average rainfall in April. Heavy rainfall in May and early June raised soil moisture levels in most cropping regions. According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three month rainfall outlook (June to August 2016), issued on 26 May 2016, the chance of exceeding median rainfall during winter is more than 70 per cent in all cropping regions in New South Wales.

The area planted to winter crops in New South Wales is forecast to increase by around 1 per cent in 2016–17 to 5.7 million hectares. A forecast increase in the area planted to oilseeds and pulses is expected to more than offset a forecast fall in the area planted to wheat and barley. The area planted to chickpeas is expected to increase in 2016–17 in response to expected high returns. A significant proportion of the new planted area was on previously fallow land. Total winter crop production in the state is forecast to increase by around 1 per cent in 2016–17.

The area planted to wheat is forecast to fall by 1 per cent in 2016–17 to 3.4 million hectares. However, production is forecast to be largely unchanged from 2015–16, reflecting a forecast 1 per cent increase in the average yield.

The area planted to barley is forecast to fall by 3 per cent in 2016–17 to 877 000 hectares. However, yields are expected to be higher than in the previous year, which will more than offset the forecast fall in planted area. As a result, production is forecast to rise by 2 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes.

The area planted to canola is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2016–17 to 595 000 hectares in response to expected favourable returns relative to cereal crops. Although rainfall was generally below average in April, many producers chose to dry sow their canola crops. Most cropping regions had above average rainfall in May and early June and yields are expected to remain largely unchanged from 2015–16. Production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 879 000 tonnes.

The area planted to chickpeas is forecast to increase by 15 per cent in 2016–17 to 335 000 hectares, the highest level since 2010–11. The average yield is expected to fall by 3 per cent from the record high in 2015–16 and chickpea production is forecast to increase by 12 per cent to 491 000 tonnes.

Table 5 Winter crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2016–17

Crop Area’000 ha

Yieldt/ha

Productionkt

Area change%

Prod.%

Wheat 3 375 2.22 7 493 –1 0

Barley 877 2.19 1 920 –3 2

Canola 595 1.48 879 6 6

Note: Yields are based on area planted.

12


Summer crop production in New South Wales is estimated to have declined by 22 per cent in 2015–16, driven by a sharp fall in rice production.

Grain sorghum production is estimated to have remained largely unchanged in 2015–16 at 585 000 tonnes, with a fall in planted area offset by higher yields. Yields are estimated to have risen from 3.2 tonnes a hectare in 2014–15 to 3.3 tonnes a hectare in 2015–16.

Cotton production in New South Wales is estimated to have risen by 7 per cent in 2015–16 to 357 000 tonnes of cotton lint and 505 000 tonnes of cottonseed. Planted area increased by 31 per cent to 163 000 hectares, but this was largely offset by an estimated 19 per cent fall in the average yields from the record highs in 2014–15.

Rice production is estimated to have declined by almost two thirds in 2015–16 to 245 000 tonnes. This decline reflects a 68 per cent fall in planted area in response to low allocations of irrigation water and a significant increase in the price of supplementary water. The fall in planted area was partially offset by an estimated 11 per cent increase in the average yield.

Table 6 Summer crop estimates, New South Wales, 2015–16

Crop Area’000 ha

Yieldt/ha

Productionkt

Area change%

Prod. change%

Grain sorghum 180 3.25 585 –2 0

Cotton lint 163 2.19 357 31 7

Cottonseed 163 3.10 505 31 7

Rice 22 11.00 245 –68 –64


QueenslandBelow average rainfall and above average temperatures were recorded in Queensland’s grain growing regions leading into the 2016–17 winter cropping season. This resulted in unfavourable planting conditions during the first stages of the planting window. During May upper layer soil moisture levels were below average in many parts of south eastern and central Queensland and most regions also had below average levels of lower layer soil moisture. However, heavy rainfall in early June replenished upper layer soil moisture levels in many regions and improved planting conditions.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three month rainfall outlook (June to August 2016), issued on 26 May 2016, there is an above average chance of exceeding median rainfall during winter in Queensland’s grain growing regions.

The total area planted to winter crops in Queensland is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2016–17 at 1.2 million hectares, aided by widespread above average rainfall in early June. An increase in the area planted to chickpeas to a record high is expected to be offset by a forecast fall in the area planted to wheat.

Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2016–17 to 2.2 million tonnes. Yields are forecast to be generally above average, reflecting the favourable planting conditions in the latter part of the planting window and the outlook for favourable winter rainfall.

13


The area planted to wheat is forecast to decrease by 1 per cent in 2016–17 to 765 000 hectares, reflecting the unfavourable planting conditions early in the planting window and competition for area from chickpeas. Additional area is expected to be planted to wheat in central Queensland in response to the above average rainfall in early June in the region. Wheat production is forecast to rise by 1 per cent to around 1.4 million tonnes.

The area planted to chickpeas is forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2016–17 to 345 000 hectares in response to expected higher returns for chickpeas. Planting of chickpeas is expected to continue into June in southern Queensland in response to rainfall received in early June. Chickpea production is forecast to rise by 2 per cent to 566 000 tonnes.

Table 7 Winter crop forecasts, Queensland, 2016–17

Crop Area’000 ha

Yieldt/ha

Productionkt

Area change%

Prod. change%

Wheat 765 1.85 1 415 –1 1

Barley 100 2.10 210 0 1

Chickpeas 345 1.64 566 2 2


Total summer crop production in Queensland is estimated to have fallen by 4 per cent in 2015–16 to 2.1 million tonnes, largely reflecting an estimated fall in grain sorghum production more than offsetting an estimated increase in cotton seed production.

Harvesting of grain sorghum crops in Queensland is now largely complete, and production is estimated to have fallen by 10 per cent to 1.5 million tonnes. The decrease reflects a reduction in planted area and a lower average yield. Yields in southern Queensland are estimated to have been around average. However, rainfall during February 2016 allowed for some later planting of grain sorghum crops in central Queensland and the average yield of these crops is estimated to have been below average. This reflects the relatively late sowing date and unfavourable rainfall in March and April.

Cotton production in Queensland is estimated to have increased by 14 per cent in 2015–16 to 222 000 tonnes of cotton lint and 313 000 tonnes of cottonseed. The area planted to cotton increased by 47 per cent to 107 000 hectares, but the average yields are estimated to have fallen by around 22 per cent from the record highs in 2014–15.

Table 8 Summer crop estimates, Queensland, 2015–16

Crop Area’000 ha

Yieldt/ha

Productionkt

Area change%

Prod. change%

Grain sorghum 500 2.90 1 450 –9 –10

Cotton lint 107 2.07 222 47 14

Cottonseed 107 2.93 313 47 14


14


VictoriaRainfall in Victoria during April was below average and soil moisture levels were low in the major cropping regions when planting of winter crops commenced. However, above average rainfall in May increased soil moisture levels and created favourable planting and growing conditions. Planting is now largely complete, except in the Western District, where planting can continue well into winter.

Russian wheat aphids were detected in Western Victoria in early June 2016. However, at this stage it is too early to estimate the likely damage to wheat crops. Agriculture Victoria has issued an emergency permit that supports the use of certain insecticides for control of the Russian wheat aphid in winter cereals.

The winter rainfall outlook for Victoria is favourable. According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three month rainfall outlook (June to August 2016), issued on 26 May 2016, the chance of exceeding median rainfall in the major cropping regions is at least 60 per cent. In most cropping areas, the chance of exceeding median rainfall is estimated to be above 75 per cent.

The area planted to winter crops in Victoria is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2016–17 to around 3.3 million hectares. Large increases in planted area are expected for canola, oats and lentils, in response to expected higher returns from growing these crops. Following two years of unfavourable seasonal conditions and declining production, winter crop production in Victoria is forecast to increase by 36 per cent in 2016–17 to around 5.7 million tonnes.

The area planted to wheat is forecast to rise by 1 per cent in 2016–17 to around 1.5 million hectares. The increase in area is expected to be constrained by increases in the area planted to other crops. Wheat production is forecast to increase by 31 per cent to around 2.7 million tonnes, driven by an expected increase in yields.

The area planted to barley is forecast to rise by 1 per cent in 2016–17, supported by favourable prices for malting barley and favourable planting conditions in May. As with wheat, the area planted to barley is expected to be constrained by an increase in area planted to some other crops. Barley production is forecast to increase by 31 per cent to around 1.8 million tonnes, driven by a forecast increase in the average yield.

The area planted to canola is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2016–17 to 385 000 hectares. The increase in area was limited by unfavourable seasonal conditions in the lead up to, and during the early stages of, the planting window. Improved seasonal conditions during May generally came too late to influence the area planted to canola in most cropping regions. Canola production is forecast to increase by 40 per cent in 2016–17 to 490 000 tonnes, driven by an expected increase in yields.

Table 9 Winter crop forecasts, Victoria, 2016–17

Crop Area’000 ha

Yieldt/ha

Productionkt

Area change%

Prod. change%

Wheat 1 460 1.88 2 740 1 31

Barley 945 1.88 1 775 1 31

Canola 385 1.27 490 4 40


15


South AustraliaAutumn rainfall over South Australia was generally above average, except in April, when some regions had below average rainfall. In the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three month rainfall outlook (June to August 2016), issued on 26 May 2016, the chance of exceeding median rainfall is more than 70 per cent in most parts of the South Australian cropping zone.

Russian wheat aphids were detected south of Tarlee in late May 2016. However, at this stage it is too early to estimate the likely damage to wheat crops. Primary Industries and Regions SA has commenced a surveillance and tracing operation.

The area planted to winter crops in South Australia is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2016–17 at 3.6 million hectares. The area planted to wheat and barley is expected to fall in response to higher expected returns from growing canola and pulses. In particular, the area planted to lentils is forecast to increase substantially.

The area planted to wheat is forecast to fall by 1 per cent to 2.0 million hectares in 2016–17. The above average rainfall in May and early June is expected to improve yields and offset the forecast fall in planted area. Wheat production is forecast to remain largely unchanged at 4.4 million tonnes.

The area planted to barley is forecast to fall by 1 per cent to 800 000 hectares in 2016–17 and the average yield is assumed to remain largely unchanged from 2015–16. Barley production is forecast to decline by 1 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes.

The area planted to canola is forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2016–17 to 230 000 hectares. The average yield is forecast to increase slightly and production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 306 000 tonnes.

The area planted to lentils is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2016–17 to 142 000 hectares, which if realised will be a record high in South Australia. A large part of the forecast increase is expected to occur on the Yorke Peninsula. Lentil production in South Australia is forecast to increase by 8 per cent to 222 000 tonnes.

Table 10 Winter crop forecasts, South Australia, 2016–17

Crop Area’000 ha

Yieldt/ha

Productionkt

Area change%

Prod. change%

Wheat 1 985 2.20 4 367 –1 0

Barley 800 2.33 1 860 –1 –1

Canola 230 1.33 306 2 3


16


Western AustraliaFavourable rainfall during March and April in most parts of the Western Australian cropping region resulted in very favourable planting conditions at the start to the 2016–17 winter cropping season. However, rainfall was below average in parts of the northern zone of the cropping region. Widespread favourable rainfall during late March 2016 prompted early sowing of crops, and continued above average rainfall through April and May assisted planting progress. All regions of Western Australia have now completed planting.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three month rainfall outlook (June to August 2016), issued on 26 May 2016, there is an equal to above average chance of exceeding median rainfall over winter in the Western Australian cropping region.

The total winter crop area is forecast to increase marginally in 2016–17 to 8.4 million hectares, which if realised, would be the largest area planted to winter crops in Western Australia on record. Favourable planting conditions are expected to result in a rise in the area planted to canola. The area planted to oats and lupins is forecast to increase in response to expected higher returns from growing these crops compared with the expected returns from growing wheat and barley.

Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2016–17 to 15.5 million tonnes. Early season rainfall has resulted in very favourable planting and early growing conditions for winter crops. Above average yields are expected if sufficient and timely rainfall is received over the remainder of the season.

The area planted to wheat is expected to fall marginally in 2016–17 to 5.1 million hectares, largely because of producers reducing the area planted to wheat and increasing the area planted to lupins in the north of the cropping region and canola elsewhere. Wheat production is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to 9.3 million tonnes, assuming an increase in the average yield to around 1.8 tonnes a hectare.

The area planted to barley is expected to fall by 2 per cent in 2016–17 to 1.3 million hectares. Planted area is expected to be largely unchanged in the south of the cropping region but decline elsewhere. Barley production is forecast to remain largely unchanged at 3.2 million tonnes.

The favourable and early start to the season is forecast to result in the area planted to canola increasing by 3 per cent in 2016–17 to 1.2 million hectares. Assuming an increase in the average yield to 1.3 tonnes a hectare, canola production is forecast to rise by 7 per cent to 1.6 million tonnes.

Table 11 Winter crop forecasts, Western Australia, 2016–17

Crop Area’000 ha

Yieldt/ha

Productionkt

Area change%

Prod. change%

Wheat 5 125 1.82 9 333 0 6

Barley 1 325 2.45 3 245 –2 0

Canola 1 240 1.26 1 562 3 7

Lupins 361 1.42 513 11 15


17


Statistical tablesTable 12 Australian winter crop production and area

Crop Area Production

2014–15

’000 ha

2015–16 s

’000 ha

2016–17 f

’000 ha

2014–15

kt

2015–16 s

kt

2016–17 f

kt

Wheat 12 384 12 793 12 718 23 743 24 193 25 384

Barley 4 078 4 105 4 052 8 646 8 593 9 026

Canola 2 897 2 357 2 452 3 540 2 944 3 239

Chickpeas 425 661 717 555 1 013 1 090

Faba beans 164 282 293 284 319 476

Field peas 237 238 242 290 205 300

Lentils 189 232 253 242 258 330

Lupins 443 490 517 549 607 662

Oats 854 832 909 1 198 1 308 1 551

Triticale 82 117 110 143 195 189

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Crop year refers to crops planted during the 12 months to 31 March. Slight discrepancies may appear between tables as a result of including the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory in Australian totals.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia

Table 13 Australian summer crop production and area

Crop Area Production

2013–14

’000 ha

2014–15

’000 ha

2015–16 s

’000 ha

2013–14

kt

2014–15

kt

2015–16 s

kt

Grain sorghum 532 732 681 1 282 2 209 2 037

Cottonseed a 392 197 270 1 252 746 819

Cotton lint a 392 197 270 885 528 579

Rice 75 70 23 819 690 250

Corn (maize) 52 60 67 390 495 439

Soybeans 25 20 21 32 37 40

Sunflower 17 25 23 18 30 25

a Cotton area is estimated harvested area. s ABARES estimate.Note: Crop year refers to crops planted during the 12 months to 31 March. Slight discrepancies may appear between tables as a result of including the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory in Australian totals.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

18

Australian

crop report June

2016

ABARES

19

Table 14 State production, major crops

Winter crops New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

Wheat

2016–17 f 3 375 7 493 1 460 2 740 765 1 415 1 985 4 367 5 125 9 333 8 36

2015–16 s 3 410 7 500 1 450 2 085 775 1 400 2 000 4 376 5 150 8 800 8 32

2014–15 3 166 6 654 1 493 2 631 634 987 2 045 4 602 5 038 8 824 8 44

Five year average to 2015–16 3 440 7 317 1 548 3 096 797 1 385 2 068 4 287 5 074 9 078 7 37

Barley

2016–17 f 877 1 920 945 1 775 100 210 800 1 860 1 325 3 245 5 16

2015–16 s 900 1 890 940 1 350 100 207 810 1 881 1 350 3 250 5 15

2014–15 882 1 869 916 1 374 125 253 840 1 941 1 308 3 192 5 17

Five year average to 2015–16 758 1 591 892 1 743 100 200 841 1 865 1 276 3 002 6 19

Canola

2016–17 f 595 879 385 490 1 1 230 306 1 240 1 562 1 1

2015–16 s 560 833 370 350 1 1 225 296 1 200 1 463 1 1

2014–15 699 1 014 483 559 1 0 316 324 1 397 1 641 1 2

Five year average to 2015–16 737 1 071 472 635 1 1 291 374 1 239 1 495 1 1

Oats

2016–17 f 322 390 154 256 25 21 63 107 341 770 4 7

2015–16 s 300 360 140 175 18 15 60 101 310 651 4 6

2014–15 362 350 133 179 65 15 57 89 233 558 4 6

Five year average to 2015–16 280 305 125 207 34 14 59 88 270 607 4 8

continued …

Australian

crop report June

2016

ABARES

20

Table 14 State production, major crops (continued)

Summer crops New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

Grain sorghum

2015–16 s 180 585 0 0 500 1 450 0 0 1 2 0 0

2014–15 184 586 0 1 547 1 618 0 1 1 4 0 0

2013–14 175 419 0 0 356 860 0 0 1 2 0 0

Five year average to 2014–15 198 663 1 2 441 1 311 0 0 1 2 0 0

Cottonseed a

2015–16 s 163 505 0 0 107 313 0 0 0 0 0 0

2014–15 124 472 0 0 73 274 0 0 0 0 0 0

2013–14 256 831 0 0 136 421 0 0 0 0 0 0


Rice

2015–16 s 22 245 0 2 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

2014–15 69 688 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2013–14 73 812 1 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


a Cotton area is estimated harvested area. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes or 500 hectares.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Australian

crop report June

2016

ABARES

21

Table 15 State production, other crops

Winter crops New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

Chickpeas

2016–17 f 335 491 15 16 345 566 18 15 3 3 0 0

2015–16 s 291 439 13 5 338 555 17 11 3 3 0 0

2014–15 209 282 26 52 165 201 21 16 3 4 0 0


Field peas

2016–17 f 50 75 49 50 0 0 112 133 31 42 0 0

2015–16 s 48 73 54 21 0 0 114 82 22 29 0 0

2014–15 51 66 51 65 0 0 110 127 25 32 0 0


Lentils

2016–17 f 0 0 111 108 0 0 142 222 0 0 0 0

2015–16 s 3 2 100 50 0 0 130 206 0 0 0 0

2014–15 1 1 86 80 0 0 102 162 0 0 0 0


Lupins

2016–17 f 51 50 33 29 0 0 72 70 361 513 0 0

2015–16 s 62 76 33 24 0 0 70 61 326 445 0 0

2014–15 56 66 32 26 0 0 68 75 287 382 0 0


continued …

Australian

crop report June

2016

ABARES

22

Table 15 State production, other crops (continued)

Summer crops New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

area

’000 ha

prod.

kt

Corn (maize)

2015–16 s 22 188 5 52 39 193 0 0 1 6 0 0

2014–15 23 246 5 59 31 183 0 0 1 7 0 0

2013–14 22 209 3 38 26 137 0 0 1 5 0 0


Soybeans

2015–16 s 13 26 1 1 7 13 0 0 0 0 0 0

2014–15 13 26 0 0 7 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

2013–14 20 24 0 0 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 0


Sunflower

2015–16 s 11 13 0 0 9 9 0 0 3

3

0 0

2014–15 11 17 1 0 9 9 0 0 4 4 0 0

2013–14 11 13 1 0 5 4 0 0 1 1 0 0


f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Note: Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes or 500 hectares.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia


Table 16 Australian supply and disposal of wheat, canola and pulses

Crop 2009–10

kt

2010–11

kt

2011–12

kt

2012–13

kt

2013–14

kt

2014–15

kt

Wheat

Production 21 834 27 410 29 905 22 855 25 303 23 743

Apparent domestic use 4 999 5 663 6 334 6 451 6 785 7 154

– seed 675 695 649 631 619 640

– other a 4 324 4 968 5 685 5 820 6 165 6 514

Exports b 14 791 18 584 24 656 18 644 18 612 16 587

Imports b 15 12 14 17 20 22

Canola

Production 1 907 2 359 3 427 4 142 3 832 3 540

Apparent domestic use a 721 810 871 631 969 915

Exports 1 187 1 549 2 557 3 512 2 863 2 626

Pulses

Production

– lupins 823 808 982 459 626 549

– field peas 356 395 342 320 342 290

– chickpeas 487 513 673 813 629 555

Apparent domestic use a

– lupins 470 621 416 290 310 306

– field peas 196 95 130 145 175 124

– chickpeas 1 39 93 1 0 3

Exports

– lupins 353 186 565 169 316 243

– field peas 162 302 215 177 169 168

– chickpeas 503 474 581 853 629 663

a Calculated as a residual: production plus imports less exports less any observed or assumed change in stocks and, for wheat only, less seed use. b Includes grain and grain equivalent of wheat flour.Note: Production, use, trade and stock data are on a marketing year basis: October–September for wheat; November–October for canola, peas and lupins. The export data on a marketing year basis are not comparable with financial year export figures published elsewhere. Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia

23


Table 17 Australian supply and disposal of coarse grains

Crop 2009–10

kt

2010–11

kt

2011–12

kt

2012–13

kt

2013–14

kt

2014–15

kt

Barley

Production 7 865 7 995 8 221 7 472 9 174 8 646

Apparent domestic use 3 230 2 631 2 075 2 182 2 218 2 714

– seed 226 199 166 167 164 172

– other a 3 004 2 432 1 909 2 015 2 054 2 542

Export 4 635 5 364 6 146 5 289 6 957 5 932

– feed barley 2 668 3 601 3 758 2 972 3 944 3 070

– malting barley 1 248 1 062 1 619 1 512 2 273 2 149

– malt (grain equivalent) 720 700 770 805 740 713

Oats

Production 1 162 1 128 1 262 1 121 1 255 1 198

Apparent domestic use 954 1 009 1 083 859 1 027 983

– seed 42 41 40 35 35 34

– other a 912 969 1 043 824 993 949

Export 208 118 179 262 227 215

Triticale

Production 545 355 285 171 126 143

Apparent domestic use 545 355 285 171 126 143

– seed 9 7 5 4 4 6

– other a 536 348 280 167 122 137

Export 0 0 0 0 0 0

Grain sorghum

Production 1 508 1 935 2 239 2 229 1 282 2 209

Apparent domestic use 1 167 984 1 060 1 083 885 571

– seed 3 3 3 3 4 3

– other a 1 164 981 1 056 1 080 881 568

Export b 998 341 950 1 179 1 146 397

Corn (maize)

Production 328 357 451 506 390 495

Apparent domestic use 321 312 346 402 330 432

– seed 1 1 1 1 1 1

– other a 320 311 345 401 329 431

Export b 13 9 46 106 106 60

a Calculated as a residual: production plus imports less exports less any observed or assumed change in stocks and less seed use. b Export volumes are shown in year of actual export, which is typically one year after production.Note: Production, use and export data are on a marketing year basis: marketing years are November–October for barley, oats and triticale; March–February for grain sorghum and corn (maize). The export data on a marketing year basis are not comparable with financial year export figures published elsewhere. Zero is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)

24


Table 18 Grains and oilseed prices

Crop 2014

Q3

A$/t

2014

Q4

A$/t

2015

Q1

A$/t

2015

Q2

A$/t

2015

Q3

A$/t

2015

Q4

A$/t

2016

Q1

A$/t

Wheat

Domestic: feed, del. Sydney 288 295 300 297 295 289 271

International: US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf a 308 334 323 304 309 298 288

Barley

Domestic: 2 row feed, del. Sydney 283 284 283 285 275 252 237

Export: feed b 278 299 325 327 374 273 278

Export: malting b 295 326 352 373 387 329 318

International: feed, fob Rouen a 219 247 262 251 255 251 228

Grain sorghum


Export b 326 369 377 352 367 500 290

Oats


International: CME oats nearby contract 265 264 248 221 221 223 184

Corn (maize)


International: US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf a 189 203 222 217 234 233 222

Oilseeds

Domestic: canola, del. Melbourne 468 470 494 501 541 552 536

International: Europe rapeseed, cif Hamburg 461 490 517 549 571 576 548

International: US no. 2 soybeans, fob Gulf a 504 493 505 497 524 492 482

Pulses

Domestic: lupins, del. Kwinana 293 322 350 320 322 320 299

Domestic: chickpeas, del. Melbourne 433 449 607 768 841 794 993

Domestic: field peas, del. Melbourne 366 361 433 530 534 519 555

Export: chickpeas b 556 571 618 699 874 865 908

Export: field peas b 468 462 513 575 544 568 613

a Average of daily offer prices made in US$, converted to A$ using quarterly average of daily exchange rates. b Export unit values reflect the average price received for grain exported over the quarter, not current market prices. These prices are the average unit value (free on board) of Australian exports recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A long lag time can exist between when exporters negotiate prices and when the product is exported.Note: Q1 refers to January–March; Q2 refers to April–June; Q3 refers to July–September; Q4 refers to October–December. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, Washington DC

25

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