New Project of the Energy Economics sub-group

Feygin V.I.TG-1 Meeting

Brussels, 25 November, 2011

A New Project of theEnergy Economy sub-group

Our goals:• Create a decision support tool for energy policy makers

with improved transparency in building models, scenarios and forecasts

• Create a collaborative platform, attract participation of experts and stimulate information exchanges on modeling, scenarios development and assumptions selection

• Develop a methodology for mimicking assumptions and known models in use at various public and private sector entities

Methodology

Energy System

Input from the Scenario

Simulation Model

Questions Within Each Scenario Analyzed

• Is our understanding of the assumptions, technologies and policies correct? Correctness for us is first of all, feasibility, but also similarity (simulated results vs. published)

• Using the simulated results will we enrich the understanding of the analyzed model/scenario? Will these results deliver additional insights?

• Which lessons did we learn for this particular scenario in the context of the overall scenario field?

Baseline Scenario• Based on NTUA research – PRIMES BL-2009 scenario,

published in DG TREN’s Energy Trends till 2030 Update 2009.And on OECD database 2011 Edition.

• Implemented in the MESSAGE model (IIASA/IAEA). At the moment – 4-regional model (North, South, Middle East EU), in thefuture – each countrywill be modeled separately.

• 270 technologies and84 time slices per modelregion

Next Steps and Challenges• Next scenarios to analyze by eoy 2011:

– Eurogas and – RM-2050

(we invite for cooperation!)• Discrepancies in available statistics and generation capacity

data (e.g. Eurostat,IEA, EnerDATA)(we invite for cooperation!!)

EU27 North Energy trends report DG

IEA data

Projected from IEA

Relative difference DG to IEA data

Fuel input for thermal power plants 204840 202523 212004 218614 97 93

Solids 112754 105100 117257 109176 96 96

Oil (including refinery gas) 5373 3000 7477 6684 72 45

Light oil products na na 2622 2287 na na

Fuel oil na na 4855 4397 na na

Gas 69226 73090 65378 83238 106 88

Biomass & Waste 17489 21156 14414 12831 121 165

Geothermal hea 0 179 0 0 - -

Hydrogen - Methal 0 0 0 0

Internet portal for energy scenarios

• With a purpose to increase the transparency and facilitate easy access to energy scenarios and forecasts Energy Economics sub-group has launched a new service – an Internet Portal for Energy Scenario

• Internet address: http://83.234.171.65/spme Login/password: demo

• With help of this service, researches can either benefit from already existing scenarios available on the Portal, or upload any other scenarios in order to share the experience with other groups

• A forum is expected to be launched early 2012• The HELP files in English & Russian are available from the site

• Contact person: Yury Rykov (IEF, Moscow),’Y_Rykov@fief.ru. +7 916 1212454

THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION