new entrant transportation technicians · 5. supply of new entrant diesel new entrant technicians...

New Entrant Transportation Technicians1 Measuring Postsecondary Completions to Determine Supply

1. Introduction and SummaryThis report is a companion report to go with the TechForce Foundation demand and shortage reports. The focus here is postsecondary demand for automotive, collision and diesel completions. The postsecondary segment is the primary source for skilled technicians today but does not represent the supply for all transportation technicians. For less skilled positions, students can be ‘hired off the street’. Moreover, not all postsecondary graduates will enter the transportation technician occupation because some are not qualified; others choose other industries or related occupations. So these supply numbers cannot be directly compared to total demand.

Postsecondary supply has not kept up with the spike in demand, partly because the increase in demand was so significant but also because student interest in postsecondary training is contracyclical. How to counter that trend is discussed in the conclusion.

2. Countercyclicality of Supply of StudentsWhile it may seem surprising that students are less likely to enroll in career education and 2-year schools when the economy is strong, many students perceive that incurring student debt and giving up wages to go to school is a much riskier option than taking a job when jobs are plentiful. The chart below shows fall enrollment at 2-year public colleges (‘community colleges’) and at 2-year for-profit schools. The peak enrollment was in 2010, the height of the Great Recession, followed by a decline in enrollment during the recovery.

The Cyclicality of Fall Enrollment—2 Year Public and 2 Year For-Profit

Source: National Center for Education Statistics (“NCES”) https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_303.70.asp?current=yes The countercyclicality of the supply of students generally aggravates the shortage of technicians.

3. Supply of New Entrant Automotive New Entrant Technicians

1 The background information on TechForce Foundation and the authors of this paper are shown in Appendix A.

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_303.70.asp?current=yes

www.techforcefoundation.org 2 © Copyright 2018, TechForce Foundation. All rights reserved.

Like demand, the supply side is not easy to understand because of changes in the industry and because there are multiple sources of supply which have changed over time. Vehicles have become much more complex because of the number of computers, sensors and software that modern cars and trucks require. But they have also become more reliable and employers have become more sophisticated about assigning technicians with different skills to jobs with matching skill requirements. Less challenging jobs like lube tech may be assigned to technicians recruited “off the street” and trained on the job. However, the more complex tasks require significant training not only for mechanical vehicle components but also for the electronics. Those technicians increasingly come from technical programs where we can find data on educational completions—unlike technicians who come out of high school programs or “off the street”. There are also intermediate solutions such as shorter postsecondary training programs and AYES which gives training and work experience to high school interns. The technician supply side is also complicated by several other factors:

• Many graduates from auto technician programs go into related fields, not just auto technician e.g. parts, service advisor, sales etc.

• Some graduates continue to additional education • Not all graduates go into the occupation. For example, some use their training to go into

equipment maintenance. Some decide they want to do something else. • Not all graduates are employable in the industry (attitude, poor driving record, felon, failed drug

tests etc.) Therefore the supply numbers and the demand numbers will not match but can be useful as measures for how tight the employment market is based on historical numbers. We can look at whether the gap between demand and postsecondary completions is growing or shrinking. The numbers below show the total postsecondary completions for auto tech programs over the past 6 years.

Auto Tech Postsecondary Completions 2011-2016 Year # Completions (a) 2016 38,829 2015 38,859 2014 39,142 2013 39,237 2012 40,658 (b) 2011 39,833 (b)

(a) Source: IPEDS database. Completions from first major, Automobile/Automotive Mechanics Technology/Technician programs,

bachelor’s and associate’s degrees as well as certificates below the B.A. level. https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/login.aspx

(b) Includes certificate completions that Lincoln Educational classified as automotive engineering in 2011 and 2012 but not in future years.

https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/login.aspx


The chart below shows the TechForce projected demand for auto tech new entrants. It also shows the historical supply of postsecondary auto tech grads from the table above. Considering that there are other sources of supply of new entrants, there was likely no abnormal shortage until 2013. However, in 2013, with catch-up demand accelerating the need for technicians, the serious shortage developed which has increased through the present.

The supply of postsecondary auto graduates decreased by 1,004 completions in 2016 from 2011, despite the increase in demand. Given the countercyclicality of supply an even larger decline might have been expected but, as the table below shows, the decline was partly offset by a substantial increase in the number of completions from public 2-year institutions (primarily community colleges).

Sector # Institutions 2016

2011 Completions

2016 Total Completions

# Completions-Differential

1=Public, 4-year or above 82 2,319 2,875 556 2=Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above 17 996 725 (271) 3=Private for-profit, 4-year or above 4 151 151 0 4=Public, 2-year 599 17,762 22,630 4,868 5=Private not-for-profit, 2-year 9 1,553 495 (1,058) 6=Private for-profit, 2-year 46 12,983 8,678 (4,305) 7=Public, less-than 2-year 101 777 851 74 8=Private not-for-profit, less-than 2-year 2 52 30 (22) 9=Private for-profit, less-than 2-year 25 3,240 2,394 (846) Grand Total 885 39,833 38,829 (1,004)


In 2016, the 10 largest providers of automotive technicians were as follows:

Automotive Completions 2016 Institution Total

Completions Universal Technical Institute of Arizona Inc. 925 Universal Technical Institute of California Inc. 726 NASCAR Technical Institute 656 Mech-Tech College (Puerto Rico) 595 Universal Technical Institute of Pennsylvania Inc. 555 Universal Technical Institute of Northern California Inc. 548 Universal Technical Institute of Texas Inc. 544 Ivy Tech Community College 508 Universal Technical Institute - Dallas Fort Worth 459 Universal Technical Institute-Auto Motorcycle & Marine Mechanics Institute Division-Orlando

459

Source: IPEDS Mech-Tech serves Puerto Rico and Ivy Tech is a statewide community college in Indiana with over 40 campuses and site locations. 4. Postsecondary Supply of New Entrant Collision New Entrant Technicians As with auto, the supply side for new entrant collision technicians is also complicated by several factors:

• Some graduates go for additional education • Not all graduates go into the occupation. • Not all graduates are employable (attitude, poor driving record, felon, failed drug tests etc.) • Some graduates from collision technician programs go into related fields, e.g. insurance claims

adjustment. The numbers below show that total postsecondary completions for collision tech programs have declined over the past 6 years.

Collision Tech Postsecondary Completions 2011-2016 Year # Completions (a) 2016 5,791 2015 6,546 2014 6,847 2013 7,469 2012 7,441 2011 8,566

(a) Source: IPEDS database. Completions from first major, Autobody/Collision and Repair Technology/ Technician programs, bachelor’s and associate’s degrees as well as certificates below the B.A. level. https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/login.aspx


As with automotive technicians, the comparison of demand and supply is best understood by whether the gap is narrowing or expanding. The chart below shows the TechForce projected demand for collision tech new entrants. It also shows the historical supply of postsecondary collision tech grads from the table above. Considering that there are other sources of supply of new entrants, there was no significant shortage prior to 2013. However, in 2014, with catch-up demand accelerating the need for technicians, a shortage developed which has increased through the present.

Postsecondary completions come primarily from the community colleges and the 2-year for-profit schools. The decline in completions since 2011 has come across most sectors and no sector has increased or decreased their commitment significantly since 2011.

2016 Postsecondary Completions by Sector--Collision

Sector # Institutions Total Completions

Private for-profit, 2-year 14 902 Private for-profit, less-than 2-year 5 258 Private not-for-profit, 2-year 2 360 Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above 4 84 Public, 2-year 262 3,545 Public, 4-year or above 29 369 Public, less-than 2-year 32 273 Grand Total 348 5,791 (a) Source: IPEDS. Includes first major, Autobody/Collision and Repair Technology/ Technician, for Bachelor's degree, Associate's degree, and certificates below the baccalaureate level. Preliminary data for 2016 completions.


In 2016, the 10 largest providers of collision technicians were as follows:

Collision Completions 2016 Institution Total Completions Wyotech-Blairsville* 183* Wyotech-Laramie* 177* Universal Technical Institute of Texas Inc. 156 Lincoln College of Technology-Nashville 117 Universal Technical Institute of Northern California Inc 117 Albany Technical College 92 Automeca Technical College-Bayamon 91 Ohio Technical College 89 Eastfield College 68 Mech-Tech College 66 *On Nov. 8, 2017, Zenith Education Group announced that its Wyotech campuses would be closed.

Source: IPEDS

5. Supply of New Entrant Diesel New Entrant TechniciansThe postsecondary supply of diesel new entrants is calculated by adding completions from diesel mechanics programs as well as completions from ‘medium/heavy vehicle and truck technology’ programs. The numbers below show that total postsecondary completions for diesel tech programs have increased over the past 6 years.

Diesel Tech Postsecondary Completions 2011-2016

Year # Completions (a)

2016 11,966 2015 11,348 2014 10,974 2013 10,271 2012 9,250 2011 9,557

(a) Source: IPEDS database. Completions from first major, Diesel MechanicsTechnology/ Technician programs, and from Medium/Heavy Vehicle and TruckTechnology/Technician, bachelor’s and associate’s degrees as well as certificatesbelow the B.A. level. https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/login.aspx

Like the other occupations, there are other sources of supply so the comparison of supply and demand is best understood by whether the gap is growing or shrinking.

https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/login.aspx


The chart below shows the TechForce projected demand for diesel tech new entrants. It also shows the historical supply of postsecondary diesel tech grads from the table above. The chart reflects a significant shortage of diesel technicians since the Great Recession which has been aggravated by demand for diesel techs from other non-transportation sectors of the economy (e.g. energy and power generation).

Postsecondary completions for diesel mechanics and medium/heavy vehicle programs come primarily from the community colleges and the 2-year for-profit schools. The two tables below show the sectors where the postsecondary completions are occurring for both the diesel mechanics completions and for the medium/heavy vehicle and truck technology completions.

2016 Completions for Diesel Mechanics Program by Sector

Sector # Institutions Total Completions

Private for-profit, 2-year 27 2,269 Private for-profit, less-than 2-year 7 296 Private not-for-profit, 2-year 5 520 Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above 1 436 Public, 2-year 186 5,164 Public, 4-year or above 33 715 Public, less-than 2-year 13 331 Grand Total 272 9,731 Source: IPEDS database. 2016 First major, Diesel Mechanics Technology/Technician, bachelor’s degree, associate's degree, or certificate.


2016 Completions for the Medium/Heavy Vehicle Program by Sector Sector # Institutions Completions-2016

Private for-profit, 2-year 8 933 Private for-profit, 4-year or above 1 71 Private for-profit, less-than 2-year 1 105 Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above

1 41

Public, 2-year 42 797 Public, 4-year or above 3 159 Public, less-than 2-year 17 129 Grand Total 73 2,235 Source: IPEDS database. 2016 First major, Medium/Heavy Vehicle and Truck Technology/Technician, bachelor’s degree, associate's degree, or certificate.

In 2016, the 10 largest providers of diesel technicians were as follows:

Diesel Completions 2016

Institution Name Diesel Mechanic

Completions

Medium-Heavy Vehicle

Completions

Total Completions

University of Northwestern Ohio 436 436 Universal Technical Institute of Arizona Inc

254 254

Wyotech-Laramie* 225* 225* Lincoln College of Technology-Nashville

223 223

Central Community College 220 220 Universal Technical Institute of Texas Inc.

202 202

Universal Technical Institute of Pennsylvania Inc

200 200

Bates Technical College 199 199 Dixie Applied Technology College 194 194 Lincoln College of Technology-Indianapolis

184 184

*On Nov. 8, 2017, Zenith Education Group announced that its Wyotech campuses would be closed.Source: IPEDS


6. ConclusionAs we have said in our other reports, the evidence for an abnormal shortage of technicians is very clear, particularly for auto technicians. What can be done to create a longer-term solution to the quantity and quality of technicians needed? The first step is to define the root causes. Our country and education system have divested in high school auto shops and stigmatized trade school educations which is killing the trades. A big part of the problem is getting more students interested in becoming technicians, particularly when the economy is strong. The root causes of this lack of interest include:

• The old perception that these are “grease monkey” jobs with limited career advancement, lowpay, and low status. Parents and students are not aware how advanced technology andcompetition have dramatically increased the skill levels, compensation and career opportunitiesfor bright, ambitious students.

• Waiting to the end of the education pipeline to see who is interested. Changing perceptions willrequire building a pipeline into the industry—before parents and students have committed to“college for all”, before students have decided that they aren’t interested in STEM subjects inhigh school, and before the old perceptions eliminate any interest among parents and careercounselors in learning more about the opportunities in the transportation technicianoccupations.

• “Every employer for himself”. Without some form of a focused, collective action, thetransportation industry will suffer from inadequately financed, fragmented efforts to solve theseproblems. A solution requires pooling resources and consistent public messaging to changeperceptions and build a talent pipeline.

• Competition from other skilled trades. With only a small percentage of students interested ingoing into a skilled trade vs. seeking a college degree, the competition among all the skilledtrades for those students is fierce. However, starting wages for auto technicians are among thelowest across the skilled trades. Add to that the fact that entry-level technicians are expected toarrive at their first job with their own tools and it does not make the career very attractive,compared with other choices.

TechForce Foundation is dedicated to provide that collective source of action to solve the root causes of the problem. These reports are examples of how TechForce plans to create awareness of the problem, provide credible data to support the industry’s claims, and with even greater industry participation, improve the range and quality of these services.

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APPENDIX A

Backgrounds of TechForce Foundation, Greg Settle and Doug Young

TechForce Foundation TechForce Foundation is a nonprofit, 501(c)(3) with the mission to champion students to and through their education and into careers as professional technicians in the transportation industry. The Foundation distributes more than $1.5 million in scholarships and grants annually, thanks to its generous corporate sponsors and donors, and is spearheading FutureTech Success®, the industry-wide initiative to help encourage and support more young people to pursue the vehicle technician profession. For more information, visit www.techforcefoundation.org.

Greg Settle

Greg Settle currently serves as Director, National Initiatives for TechForce Foundation. Mr. Settle graduated from the Automotive and Diesel Technology programs at Universal Technical Institute in Phoenix, AZ. He has 43 years with the Mercedes-Benz brand, beginning his career as a dealership technician, and subsequently moving through roles as Shop Foreman, Service Manager, and Fixed Operations Director. After moving to Mercedes-Benz, USA he held various field representative and engineering roles before joining the MBUSA training organization. Over several years he served as national Manager of Training Operations, Manager of Retail Training, and Manager of Technical Training and Curriculum. Mr. Settle also served multiple terms on the Board of Directors for Automotive Youth Educational Systems (AYES) and the I-CAR Education Foundation.

Doug Young

Doug Young is Managing Director of his own strategy consulting company, Wilcap L.L.C. Mr. Young holds an honors B.A. in liberal arts from the University of Toronto, an M.A. from the University of Oxford in politics and economics and an MBA from Harvard University. He began his career as an investment banker with Lehman Brothers in New York when Lehman was still a private partnership and left Lehman in the early 1980s to come to Phoenix. He became the President and CEO of Sunbelt Holdings Inc., eventually leaving to form his own company in the late 1980s. Mr. Young currently provides consulting services to TechForce Foundation, Universal Technical Institute and other selected clients.

http://www.techforcefoundation.org/

new entrant transportation technicians · 5. supply of new entrant diesel new entrant technicians...

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