1

NewEnglandLandscapeScenarios2060

ThisdocumentpresentsfourscenariosthatdescribepotentialchangesintheNewEnglandlandscapetotheyear2060.Thescenariosweredevelopedwith120stakeholdersfromthesixNewEnglandstatesthroughaseriesofscenario-buildingworkshopsledbytheHarvardForestaspartoftheNewEnglandLandscapeFuturesProjectandtheScenarios,Services,andSocietyResearchCoordinationNetwork.Thescenariosrepresentfourplausiblealternativestocurrenttrendsbuiltaroundtwodriversoflandscapechangethatareconsideredhighlyuncertainandhigh-impact:Naturalresourceplanning&innovation(highorlow)andSocio-economicconnectedness(globalorlocal).Thesetwodriversformtheaxesandendpointsforthescenariomatrixshownbelow.Eachquadrantrepresentsafuturescenariowithnamesthatreflecttheirpositioninthematrix.

DriverDefinitions

Socio-economicconnectednessreferstotheextenttowhichpopulationmigration,culture,economicmarkets,goodsandservices,andtradeandclimatepolicyaregloballyorientedorlocallyoriented.

Naturalresourceplanning&innovationreferstotheextenttowhichgovernmentsengageinproactiveland-useplanningandinvestintechnologicaladvancesforland,energy,andwateruse.Italsoreflectsthedegreeofprivatesectorinnovationinresourceuseandinvestmentinecosystemservices.Thisdriveralsoincorporatessocialattitudesofindividualstowardlandstewardshipandsustainability.

NarrativesandTables

Thepagesthatfollowprovideanarrativedescriptionofeachscenarioandatablecomparingrecentlandusetrendsandlandusetrendsforeachscenario.Tables1–4containpreliminaryestimatesofthenumberofacresthatoccurundereachlandusecategorywhenannualresultsareextrapolatedover50years.Themodelingteamisrefiningthesecalculationsandwewillprovidefinalnumberswhentheyareavailable.

Figure1NewEnglandRegionalScenarioMatrix

2

ConnectedCommunities

Highnaturalresourceplanning&innovation/Localsocio-economicconnectedness The World in 2060 SCENARIOINBRIEF:TheNewEnglandpopulationhasincreasedslowlyoverthepastfiftyyearsandmostcommunitiesarecopingwithclimatechangebyanchoringinplaceratherthanrelocating,makinglocalcultureandtheuseandprotectionoflocalresourcesincreasinglyimportanttogovernmentsandcommunities.NewEnglandhasbeenlessaffectedbyclimatechangethanmanyotherregionsoftheU.S.inthisscenario.ConcernsaboutglobalunrestandtheenvironmentalimpactsofglobaltradehaveledNewEnglanderstostrengthentheirlocaltiesandbecomemoreself-reliant.Thesefactorscombinewithheightenedcommunityinterestandpublicpoliciestostrengthenlocaleconomiesandfuelburgeoningmarketsforlocalfood,localwood,andlocalrecreation.SETTLEMENTPATTERNS:Fromtheearly2020sonward,localandregionalgovernmentshaveusedtaxincentives,publicpolicies,andmarketsubsidiestodriveashifttowardsustainabilityandclimateresilience.Thisrenewedfocusoncommunityplanningandprotectionofnaturalresourceshasadvanced‘smartgrowth’measuresthatbalancedevelopmentneedswiththeneedtoprotectnaturalinfrastructure.Newsettlementstendtooccurinplannedurbancenters,resultinginhigherdensitydevelopment(in-fill),andaspocketsofclusteredgrowthattheurbanfringe.Reducedrelianceonglobaltradeandgreaterrelianceonlocalnaturalresourceshasbolsteredtheavailabilityoflocaljobs.Strongurbanplanningyieldsdevelopmentswheremorepeoplecanwalktowork.Thegrowthofurbanfarmsandurbangreeninfrastructurehasalsoimprovedthequalityoflifeforcitydwellers.Withtheshifttowardamorecommunity-focusedlifestyle,long-distancetravelhasdeclinedand“stay-cations”atlocalrecreationareashavebecomemorepopular.NewparksandwildernessareasinnorthernNewEnglandalsoattractwealthytouristsfromelsewhereandpromotethedevelopmentofmoreandlargerhigh-endlakesideandmountainsideresorts.ENERGYANDCLIMATE:On-goingconcernsaboutclimatechangehavefueledagrass-rootsgreenenergymovement,resultinginincreasedlocalwind,biomass,andsolarpowerdevelopment.Proactiveplanningensuresthatonlyasmallamountofopenlandhasbeenconvertedtodevelopedusestosupporttheserenewableenergyprojects.Overtime,technologicaladvanceshaveincreasedenergyefficiencyanddecreasedthefootprintofenergydevelopment.Aregionalcarbontaxhasmadetransportationmoreexpensive,makinglocalfoodsuppliesandshortercommutesmoreattractive.Thishelpstopromotegreaterrelianceonlocalfood,localwoodproductsandlocaltransportationoptionsduringtheearly2020sand2030s,withlocalwoodbiomassservingasarenewabletransitionfuel.LANDPROTECTION:Withtheinterestinlocalismthereisastrongfocusontheprotectionofwildlandsforwildlifeandecosystemservices.Withincreasedrelianceonlocalresourcesandgreaterpublicinvestmentinnaturalinfrastructure,ratesofprivatelandprotectionthrougheasementsrise,andpaymentsforecosystemservices,suchascleanwater,havesurpassedthevaluelandownersderivefromresourceextraction.Easementsonlandsthatareharvestedareacommonmeansofshoringuplocalwoodmarkets.Stateandlocalgovernmentshaveinvestedgreaterpublicfundinginlandprotectionforforesthealth,floodcontrol,andwaterquality.Municipalgovernmentsarealsoprotectinglandforpublicparksnearpopulationcenters.LargerTIMOs1andREITs2havedivestedlandtolocalgovernmentsandprivatelandownerswhomanageforwoodandwater.

1TimberInvestmentManagementOrganization2RealEstateInvestmentTrust

3

FARMING:Localagriculturehasexpandedtomeetthegrowingdemandforlocalfood.Arenaissanceofsmall-scalecommunity-basedfarminghasoccurredwithnewfarmsoftensituatedontheoutskirtsoftown,growingmixed,diversecrops.Farmingishighlyefficientwithplantsengineeredforthenovelclimatethatrequireminimalwater,fertilizer,andpesticideapplication.Thisrenaissancehasbroughtreinvestmentinslaughterhousesandsmokehousestosupplytheregionwithmeatfromlocalsources.FORESTRY:Theharvestinganduseoflocalwoodissupportedbythestrong“buylocal”movementaswellasbynewincentivesforbuildingwithwoodandahighcarbontaxonimportedwoodproducts.Asaresult,timberharvestingratesacrosstheregionincreaseby50%by2060,particularlyinthenorthernNewEnglandstates.Investmenttimberownersarepaidbygovernmentsandfundmanagerstomanagesustainablyfortimber,watershedprotection,andotherecosystemservices.Theexistenceofbiomassenergymarketsmakestheremovaloftraditionallylow-valuetimberspeciesandsize-classescost-effective,andthereisaresurgenceincommunityforestsandwoodlotsneartownsthatarededicatedtoproducinghigh-valuelocalwoodproducts.

YankeeCosmopolitan

Highnaturalresourceplanning&innovation/Globalsocio-economicconnectedness The World in 2060 SCENARIOINBRIEF:NewEnglandhasexperiencedsubstantialpopulationgrowthspurredbyclimateandeconomicmigrantswhoareseekingareaslessvulnerabletoheatwaves,drought,andsea-levelrise.Mostmigrantsareinternationalbutsomehaverelocatedfrommoreclimate-affectedregionsintheU.S.Atthesametime,astrongtrackrecordinresearchandtechnologyhasmadeNewEnglandaworldleaderinbiotechandengineering,creatingalargedemandforskilledlabor.Theregion’srelativeresiliencetoclimatechangeandgrowingemploymentopportunitieshasmadeNewEnglandamajoreconomicandpopulationgrowthcenteroftheU.S.AbundantforestsremainacentralpartofNewEngland’sidentity,andsupportincreasesintourism,particularlyinVermont,Maine,andNewHampshire.SETTLEMENTPATTERNS:ProactivecityplanningaswellaspublicandprivateinvestmentininfrastructurehavehelpedtomeettheneedsofNewEngland’sgrowingpopulationthroughwell-plannedhousing,transportationhubs,andmunicipalservicesnearcitycenters.Thesewell-plannedurbanhubsareattractiveplacestoworkandlive.This,togetherwiththeincreasinglyglobalcommunity,createsdiverseneighborhoodswithuniquecultural,business,andnaturalamenities.Asthepopulationinfluxcontinuesthroughthe2030sand2040s,thepaceofdevelopmentbeginstoexceedtheplanningandphysicalcapacityofmanycitiesanddevelopmentpatternsdevolveintosprawl.Exceptforareaswithhightourism,thepopulationofruralareasissteadyordecliningthroughoutnorthernNewEngland,resultinginlittlenewpermanentdevelopmentinthatpartoftheregion.

Table1CONNECTEDCOMMUNITIES:AcresofLandin2060

DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURE CONSERVATION HARVEST

State RecentTrendsConnected

Communities RecentTrendsConnected

Communities RecentTrendsConnected

Communities RecentTrendsConnected

Communities

CT 253,831 126,916 14,325 35,811 270,798 460,357 449,999 1,574,998

MA 409,922 204,961 20,920 52,299 773,636 1,315,181 1,249,998 1,874,997

ME 362,715 181,357 111,184 277,960 6,761,956 6,761,956 20,739,818 31,109,727

NH 257,240 128,620 21,742 65,225 1,628,005 1,628,005 2,749,996 4,124,994

RI 51,518 25,759 1,559 3,898 117,590 199,903 39,657 69,399

VT 98,366 49,183 36,089 90,224 1,119,028 3,357,084 2,084,701 3,648,227

Total 1,433,592 716,796 205,818 525,416 10,671,013 13,722,486 27,314,169 42,402,342

4

ENERGYANDCLIMATE:Aglobalshifttowardsustainabilitywithstrongglobalclimateagreementshascreatedrobustglobalcarbonmarketsandcarbonstoragebyforestsisnowhighlyvalued.Thestrongcarbonoffsetmarketencouragesregionalbrokerstoworkwithsmall-scaleforestandfarmlandownerstobundleandmarkettheircarbonstorage.Policiesandprivatesectorinvestmentsinnewtechnologyhelptocurtailgreenhousegasemissionsandsupportthedevelopmentoflow-carbonrenewableenergytechnologies.Aspartofthis‘green’economyshift,NewEnglandhasseenthepropagationofsignificantnumbersofrenewableenergysitesthroughouteachstatetomeettheenergyneedsofagrowingpopulation.Windturbinesspanshorelinesandridgelinesneargrowthcenters.Largesolararraysbuiltduringthe2020sconsumelargetractsoflandbuteventuallygivewaytolessexpansive,moreefficientsystemsinresponsetechnologicalinnovationandheighteneddemandforlandforhousing.LANDPROTECTION:Smartgrowth,high-densityurbandevelopment,andcarbonoffsetmarketshavefacilitatedadoublinginratesoflandprotectionwithinhighpriorityconservationareasthroughoutthe2020sand2030s.Newurbanparkstrackwithnewdevelopment.Bundledcarbonmarketsresultinmanynewconservationeasements.Landprotectionprioritiesfocusonthemaintenanceofecosystemservices,particularlyinsouthernNewEnglandwherecitiesdependonwatershedlandsforlow-cost,cleandrinkingwater.Evenso,landprotectionisunderpressurefromrapidpopulationgrowthand,asidefromsmallpublicparks,mostlandprotectionforecosystemservicesoccursinlow-populationareas,withconflictsbetweenecosystemserviceprotectionanddevelopmenthinderinglandprotectioninotherregions.FARMING:Inthisgloballyconnectedworld,thereislittledriveforself-sufficiencyinfoodsupplies,andtheU.S.reliesonimportsformostproducts,exceptforspecializedlocalfoodsuchasorganicmilk,apples,maplesyrup,andpotatoes.Innovativefarmingpracticessupportincreasedproductionwithoutmuchadditionalagriculturalacreage.InnorthernNewEnglandamodestincreaseinagricultureoccursnearexistingfarmsandsomesmallpatchfarmingemergesneartownstofeedlocalnichemarkets.FORESTRY:Ratesoftimberharvestingforwoodproductshavedecreasedintheregion,particularlyinsouthernNewEnglandwhereparcelizationandnon-timberforestvaluesdrivelandmanagementpriorities.Technologicalinnovationsinenergygenerationandstoragelimitthedemandforwoodbiomassenergy.MuchofthelandownedbyTIMOsandREITshasbeenenrolledincarbonmarketstocapitalizeontheboomincarbonoffsetprices.DevelopmentofsugarbusheshasexpandedasmaplesyruphasbecomeavaluableglobalcommodityandNewEnglandremainssuitableforsugarmapletreesdespitechangingclimate.Consistentwithaworldwithcompetingdemandsforforestuses,forestrypracticelawsdesignedtoprotectarangeofecosystemserviceshavebecomemorestringentinallstatesandthelimitedharvestingthatoccursfollowsan‘ecologicalforestry’paradigm,includinglongerrotationswithmoreleavetreesandslashlefton-sitetobalancecarbonstoragewithcommodityproduction.

Table2YANKEECOSMOPOLITAN:AcresofLandin2060

DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURE CONSERVATION HARVEST

StateRecentTrends

YankeeCosmopolitan RecentTrends

YankeeCosmopolitan RecentTrends

YankeeCosmopolitan RecentTrends

YankeeCosmopolitan

CT 253,831 507,663 14,325 14,325 270,798 406,197 449,999 180,000

MA 409,922 819,843 20,920 20,920 773,636 1,160,454 1,249,998 499,999

ME 362,715 272,036 111,184 111,184 6,761,956 5,071,467 20,739,818 12,443,891

NH 257,240 192,930 21,742 21,742 1,628,005 1,221,004 2,749,996 1,649,997

RI 51,518 103,036 1,559 1,559 117,590 176,385 39,657 15,863

VT 98,366 73,775 36,089 36,089 1,119,028 839,271 2,084,701 1,250,821

Total 1,433,592 1,969,283 205,818 205,818 10,671,013 8,874,778 27,314,169 16,040,571

5

GrowingGlobalLownaturalresourceplanning&innovation/Globalsocio-economicconnectedness The World in 2060 SCENARIOINBRIEF:By2060,asteadystreamofmigrantshasdrivenupNewEngland’spopulation,withnewcomersseekingtoliveinareaswithfewnaturalhazards,amplecleanairandwater,andlowvulnerabilitytoclimatechange.Thisinfluxofpeoplehastakentheregionbysurpriseandlocalplanningeffortshavefailedtokeeppacewithdevelopment.Theregionhasexperiencedincreasingprivatizationofmunicipalservicesasstateandlocalgovernmentsstruggletokeepupwiththeneedsoftheburgeoningpopulation.Tradebarrierswereliftedinthe2020stocountereconomicstagnationandthevolumeofglobaltradehasmultipliedoverthepast40yearsasaresultofincreasingglobalization.However,allattemptsatglobalclimatechangenegotiationsandrenewableenergycommitmentshavefailedinthisgloballydividedworld.SETTLEMENTPATTERNS:NewEnglandischaracterizedbysprawlingcitieswithpoortransportationinfrastructure,inefficientenergyuse,andhaphazardexpansionofresidentialdevelopment.Walkabilityinmostcitiesislowandcarsremainnecessarytoaccessservicesinmostpartsoftheregion.Littlehasbeendonetoaddressstressesoncivilinfrastructure.DevelopmentpressuresandlossofopenspaceareparticularlyacuteinsouthernNewEnglandaroundBoston,Nashua,SpringfieldandHartford.However,northernNewEnglandcitiesarenotimmune,andPortlandandBurlingtonhaveexperiencedheightenedexpansion.ENERGYANDCLIMATE:Inthisworldwithlittleinnovationandnoglobalcommitmenttoclimateaction,conventionalfossilfuelenergysourcesdominateandremainabundantandcheap.Despitetheenvironmentalcostsassociatedwithconventionalenergy,levelsoftransportationandmobilityremainhighbothlocallyandglobally.NewEnglandhasexperiencedsomeinvestmentinnewrenewableenergy,butmuchmoredevelopmentofnaturalgasandoverlandtransmissionlines.Haphazardharvestingofforestsforwoodybiomasshasincreased.LANDPROTECTION:Withtheregion’sgrowingpopulationandlownaturalresourceplanning,investmentinnaturalinfrastructurecontinuestobelowandlandprotectionrateshavebeeninsharpdecline.Wherenewlandconservationoccurs,itismostlyfortaxpurposesandinremoteareasunderlittlethreatofdevelopment.Existingparksandprotectedlandsareheavilyusedandecologicallydegraded.Newresidentialandcommercialdevelopmentaroundparksservethewealthyandperforateforestsaroundprotectedlands.Effortsto‘green-up’citiesfocusonprotectingrecreationareasratherthannaturalinfrastructure.Conservationeasementsonprivatelandshavebeenlegallychallengedsothatlandownerscanexploitnaturalgasandotherenergyresources.FARMING:U.S.foodexportssurgeinresponsetochangingglobalagriculturalcommoditymarkets,anddrivetheconversionofforestlandtofarmland.Thesenewagriculturallandsmostlyextendoutfromexistingfarmland,andtypicallytaketheformoflarge-scale,intensiveproductionfarmsforcommoditycropsbyleadingmulti-nationalagri-businesses.Consumerscontinuetodemandawidevarietyofhighqualityproductsavailableyear-roundandatlow-cost.Withcheapfossilfuel,importedagriculturalproductsremainthedominantsourceoffoodfortheregion.FORESTRY:Thegrowthofthenationalhousingmarkethasledtoanincreaseintheareaofforestlandthatisharvestedeachyear.Thisgrowthlargelyoccursinruralareas.InthenorthernNewEnglandstateslarge-scaleindustrialforestmanagementandclear-cuttingrateshaveincreased.Warmergrowingconditionshaveledtoexperimentationwithfast-growingsoftwoodssuchasloblollyandsouthernpineplantationforestry.However,thesuccessoftheseplantationshasbeenvariableduetothelongtimehorizonbeforeareturnoninvestmentisrealized.Accordingly,manylargeplantationshavebeenconvertedtoagriculturebeforereachingmaturity.Conventionalforestryhasincreasedcommensuratewithexpandedbiofuelmarkets,oftenharvestinglowvaluespecies.Nonetheless,risingpropertyvaluesandassociatednewdevelopmenthasdrivenforestryoutofsouthernNewEngland.

6

GoItAlone

Lownaturalresourceplanning&innovation/Localsocio-economicconnectedness The World in 2060 SCENARIOINBRIEF:Populationgrowthintheregionhasremainedfairlylowandstableoverthepast50yearsasthelackofeconomicopportunity,highenergycosts,andtightenednationalbordershavedeterredimmigrationandtherelocationofpeoplefromwithintheU.S.toNewEngland.Theconcurrentshrinkingofnationalbudgetsandlackofglobaleconomicconnectionshaveleftlittleleewaytodealwithchallengessuchashighunemployment,demographicchange,andclimateresilience.WithinNewEnglandthishasresultedintherollingbackofnaturalresourceprotectionpoliciesandthedryingupofinvestmentsinnewtechnologiesandecosystemprotectionsinresponsetoalackofregulatorydrivers.Overthelast50years,theregionhasseenthesignificantdegradationofecosystemservicesasaresultofpoorplanning,increasedpollution,andheavyextractiveusesoflocalresourcesusingconventionaltechnologies.SETTLEMENTPATTERNS:Ratesoflanddevelopmenthaveslowedbyabout25percentcomparedtothe1990-2000s.Wheredevelopmenthascontinued,itischaracterizedbyunplannedresidentialhousingthatperforatesthelandscape.Regionalplanningentitieshaveclosedshopandtownsandunorganizedtownshipsmustdealwithdevelopmentissuesandmunicipalservicesontheirownandwithdwindlingbudgets.Inmostcounties,publicauthoritieslackthefundsforthemaintenanceandextensionofcriticalinfrastructuresuchasroads,culvertsandsewers.Overtime,thisinfrastructurehasbeguntodeteriorate,particularlyinthepoorerandmoreruralareasofNewEngland.ENERGYANDCLIMATE:Energycostshavecontinuedtoriseoverthelasthalf-centurydrivenbycrumblingconventionalenergyinfrastructure,controversyovernewenergydevelopmentprojects,andreducedaccesstoglobalenergymarketsthatpersistinthismorestate-basedworld.Internationaleffortstoreducegreenhousegasemissionshavefailedandconventionalenergysourcesstilldominate.Highenergycostsandpoorinfrastructurehavemadeitexpensivetotravelandshipgoods.Ithasbecomedifficultforpeopletogetaroundandthereisresurgentlocalisminresponse.Lackoffundingforclimatechangeadaptation(e.g.upsizingroadculverts)hasalsoleftruralcommunitiesstrandedbyrisingfloodwaters.Giventhecostsassociatedwithmobility,relocatingtomorefavorableareasisonlyanoptionfortheaffluent.Areasadverselyaffectedbyextremeweatherendurelongandsteepeconomicdeclines.Thereisoftenastrengtheningsenseofcommunityaspeoplebandtogetherintimesofscarcity,butmanyhavestillseenaconsiderabledecreaseintheirqualityoflife.LANDPROTECTION:Governmententitieshavedivestedfromlandprotectioneffortsandtherehasbeenlittletononewlandprotectionacrosstheregion.Theprotectionsofferedbyprivatelandconservationeasementsoften

Table3GROWINGGLOBAL:AcresofLandin2060

DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURE CONSERVATION HARVEST

State RecentTrends GrowingGlobal RecentTrends GrowingGlobal RecentTrends GrowingGlobal RecentTrends GrowingGlobal

CT 253,831 507,663 14,325 143,246 270,798 162,479 449,999 899,999

MA 409,922 2,049,608 20,920 209,197 773,636 464,182 1,249,998 3,749,994

ME 362,715 725,429 111,184 1,111,839 6,761,956 4,057,173 20,739,818 51,849,545

NH 257,240 1,286,198 21,742 217,415 1,628,005 976,803 2,749,996 6,874,989

RI 51,518 128,796 1,559 15,590 117,590 70,554 39,657 118,970

VT 98,366 491,830 36,089 360,894 1,119,028 671,417 2,084,701 5,211,753

Total 1,433,592 5,189,524 205,818 2,058,182 10,671,013 6,402,608 27,314,169 68,705,250

7

gounmonitoredbynow-defuncteasementholdersandarethenchallengedincourt,suchthattherehasbeenanetreductioninprotectedprivatelandinareasexperiencingdevelopmentpressure.FARMING:Growinginstabilityintheglobalfoodsupplyhasnecessitatedashifttowardlocalandsubsistencefoodproduction.Counter-intuitivelythough,theamountoffarmlandintheregionhasdeclinedduetothereducedpresenceofcommercialagricultureintheregion.FORESTRY:Inregionswheretheeconomyandrealestatepriceshavecollapsed,thepeoplewhoremainneedtoextractwhattheycanfromtheland.Therefore,timberharvestingrateshaveincreaseddramatically,precipitatedbytheneedtouselocalresourcesforenergy.Therearefewincentivestopracticelong-termsilvicultureandforestsareheavilyutilizedforbiomassenergy,mostlyforconventionalfirewood.ThemanagementandmaintenanceofTIMOandcorporateforestrylandshasdeclinedbecauseitistooexpensivetoharvestandtransportwoodproductstodistantpopulationandenergycenters.

Figure2LandCoverandLandUseChangebyScenario

Table4GOITALONE:AcresofLandin2060

DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURE CONSERVATION HARVEST

State RecentTrends GoitAlone RecentTrends GoitAlone RecentTrends GoitAlone RecentTrends GoitAlone

CT 253,831 190,374 14,325 0 270,798 54,160 449,999 1,349,998

MA 409,922 307,441 20,920 0 773,636 154,727 1,249,998 3,749,994

ME 362,715 272,036 111,184 0 6,761,956 1,352,391 20,739,818 62,219,454

NH 257,240 192,930 21,742 0 1,628,005 325,601 2,749,996 8,249,987

RI 51,518 38,639 1,559 0 117,590 23,518 39,657 118,970

VT 98,366 73,775 36,089 0 1,119,028 223,806 2,084,701 6,254,104

Total 1,433,592 1,075,194 205,818 0 10,671,013 2,134,203 27,314,169 81,942,507