Sheet1New car simulationInputsFixed development cost$1,400,000,000ParameterMinMost likelyMaxYear 1 contribution5000Year 1 sale100000150000170000Annual decrease in contribution4%Annual decay rate5%8%10%Tax rate40%Discount rate15%SimulationEnd of Year12345Year 1 sale113815Annual decay rate7.34%7.79%8.04%5.49%Unit sales113815105459972468942684521Unit contribution$5,000$4,800$4,608$4,424$4,247Revenue - variable cost$569,075,000$506,203,200$448,109,568$395,592,008$358,938,103Depreciation$280,000,000$280,000,000$280,000,000$280,000,000$280,000,000Before tax profit$289,075,000$226,203,200$168,109,568$115,592,008$78,938,103After tax profit$173,445,000$135,721,920$100,865,741$69,355,205$47,362,862Cash flow$453,445,000$415,721,920$380,865,741$349,355,205$327,362,862NPV of cash flow$(78,426,925)