new bmi strategy consulting unit cc · 2019. 3. 5. · the industry dashboard mortgage advances...
TRANSCRIPT
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
1
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD MORTGAGE ADVANCES (DEC 2014), GFCF RES, NON-RES AND CONSTRUCTION (DEC 2014), BPP AND BC (MARCH
2015), CEMENT (DEC 2014) AND LUMBER SALES (APRIL 2015).
Year To Date 2015 (July 2015)
Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis
BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCH
STRATEGY CONSULTING
UNIT cc
Reg. No. 2002/105109/23
•BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCH
STRATEGY CONSULTING
UNIT cc
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCH
STRATEGY CONSULTING
UNIT cc
Reg. No. 2002/105109/23
•BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCH
STRATEGY CONSULTING
UNIT cc
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•
Our Vision
Building and construction is
an engine for growth and
wealth creation and property
is a preferred investment.
Our Mission
Developing competitive
Industry foresight and
strategic leadership as a
way of business life.
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM
A place of assembly for strategic conversations
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
2
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM KEY ECONOMIC PLANNING PARAMETERS
Key Statistics
The People
Population 51,8 million (Oct 2011)
Unemployment 26,4% q/q (Q1-2015)
The Economy
GDP 1,3% q/q (Q1-2015)
CPI 4,6 % y/y (201505)
The Living Conditions
Access to piped water 73,4% (Inside yard)
Energy source for lighting 84,7% (Electricity)
The Natural Environment
Years to resource depletion Gold: 39 years (2012)
Maximum storage of largest dams Gariep 5340 millionm3
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
3
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM KEY ECONOMIC PLANNING PARAMETERS
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
4
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM THE ROLE OF BUILDING, CONSTRUCTION AND PROPERTY IN THE ECONOMY: 2014
(R MILLION) (R MILLION)Listed Property (Market Cap) Formal Empl in Bldng & Constr
Mortgage Advances Land included
Urban Housing Backlog
Mortgages Outstanding
Land included
Inv in Affordable Housing Investment in Building
1974.87% 23.15%
Government Budget Gross Fixed Capital Formation
0.03% 20.26%
30.01%
Transfer Duty Investment in Construction
R 769,230R 1,063
(R MILLION)
R 5,890,385R 449,662,670
THE ROLE OF BUILDING, CONSTRUCTION AND PROPERTY IN THE ECONOMY: 2014
Residential Property (Units*Millilon)
R 3,796,460
Gross Domestic Product
R 178,094
2,808,921
R 1,102,156
215
Average Annual Housing Need (units)
427,162
207,774
R 2,268,502
14.71
Non Res Property (m2*million)R 253,598
(Copyright) BMI-BRSCU
Investment in Infrastructure (3 years)
R 4,278 R 1,383,018 R 230,811
R 20,993
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
5
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: 2000 - 2020
2,46
7
2,53
4
2,62
7
2,70
5 2,82
8 2,97
7 3,14
4 3,3
12 3,41
8
3,36
5 3,4
68 3,57
9
3,65
9
3,73
9
3,7
96
3,87
2
3,9
65 4,
084 4
,22
3 4,3
81 4
,55
6y = 2474.8e0.0291x
R² = 0.9767
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,0002000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
R M
illi
on
(C
on
sta
nt
2014 V
alu
es)
Gross Domestic Product: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2014 Value)(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; LT Forecast Chart 25)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
6
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: 2000 - 2020
2,46
7
2,53
4
2,62
7
2,7
05 2,
828 2,
977 3,
144 3,
312 3,4
18
3,3
65 3,4
68 3,57
9
3,6
59
3,73
9
3,79
6
3,87
2
3,96
5 4,08
4 4,22
3 4,3
81 4
,55
6
4.20
2.74
3.67
2.95
4.55
5.28
5.605.36
3.19
-1.54
3.043.21
2.22 2.21
1.41
1.98
2.41
3.00
3.40
3.75
4.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Y/Y
Perc
en
tag
e C
han
ge
R M
illi
on
(C
on
sta
nt
2014 V
alu
es)
Gross Domestic Product: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2014 Value)(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; LT Forecast Chart 3033)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
7
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION: 2000 - 2020
345.
27
355.
10
367.
51 405.
13 45
7.3
0 507.
52
569.
16
647.
47
730.
49
68
1.7
2
655.
05 692.
55
717.
51
772.
21
769.
23
786.
40
81
2.8
5
843.
86 87
9.4
8
920.
11 966.
11
y = 365e0.0498x
R² = 0.9042
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
R M
illi
on
(C
on
sta
nt
2014 V
alu
es)
GFCF: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2014 Value)(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; LT Forecast Chart 27)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
8
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION: 2000 - 2020
345.
27
35
5.1
0
36
7.5
1 405.
13
457.
30
50
7.5
2
56
9.1
6
64
7.4
7
73
0.4
9
681.
72
65
5.0
5 69
2.5
5
71
7.5
1 772.
21
769.
23
786.
40
812.
85 84
3.8
6
87
9.4
8 92
0.1
1 96
6.1
1
3.90
2.853.49
10.24
12.88
10.98
12.14
13.76
12.82
-6.68
-3.91
5.72
3.60
7.62
-0.63
2.23
3.363.82
4.224.62
5.00
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Y/Y
Perc
en
tag
e C
han
ge
R M
illi
on
(C
on
sta
nt
2014 V
alu
es)
GFCF: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2014 Value)(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; LT Forecast Chart 3034)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
9
THE STRATEGIC FORUM INVESTMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION AS % OF GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
INVESTMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION AS % OF GFCF: 1993-2014 (CURRENT VALUES)LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SCENARIO: 2015-2020 (CONSTANT 2014 VALUE)
(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings; GFCF by Asset Type Chart 89)
34%
51%
43%
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
10
THE STRATEGIC FORUM GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
PER
CEN
TAG
E
GFCF AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP: 1993-2014LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2015-2020(Source: SARB, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart 6)
INFRASTRUCTURE EROSION IF RATIO < 20%
2014 = 20,3%
25% - 30% GFCF % OF GDP REQUIRED FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
The experience of other developing countries shows that capitalinvestment equivalent to about 25 per cent of GDP is generally neededfor a substantial rise in per capita income. (SARB, Budget Review 2012)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
11
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993 - 2014
GFCF Building and Construction comprised 45,3 % of Total GFCF in 2014 . . .
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GFCF Computer Related Equipment 3.65% 4.26% 4.12% 4.05% 4.33% 5.18% 5.53% 5.66% 6.33% 6.52% 6.41% 5.82% 5.53% 4.97% 4.72% 4.06% 3.88% 3.44% 3.27% 4.48% 6.08% 6.09%
GFCF Transfer Costs 3.44% 3.76% 3.34% 3.29% 2.86% 2.45% 2.48% 2.69% 2.80% 2.90% 3.29% 3.97% 4.28% 3.63% 3.06% 1.73% 1.41% 1.76% 1.32% 1.18% 1.28% 1.42%
GFCF Machinery and Equipment 40.17%40.54%41.53%42.73%42.61%42.61%44.49%41.88%42.20%44.84%40.32%38.77%36.75%38.04%37.78%37.64%31.43%32.70%34.70%35.53%36.06%36.44%
GFCF Transport Equipment 16.76%16.25%16.86%14.53%14.57%15.32%12.59%13.44%13.85%11.76%14.17%14.18%14.64%13.92%12.60%10.32% 9.51% 10.56%10.52%11.30%10.60%10.87%
GFCF Construction 13.80%13.03%10.92%12.36%12.87%13.17%14.11%13.67%11.62%12.48%14.69%14.72%14.69%14.58%18.13%24.06%30.30%29.39%29.81%28.29%28.86%27.68%
GFCF Non Residential 11.43%12.00%12.61%11.96%11.38%10.41%10.78%11.20%11.72%10.47%10.17%10.04% 9.96% 10.00%10.11%10.81%11.84%12.09%10.35% 9.62% 8.90% 8.94%
GFCF Residential 10.75%10.16%10.62%11.10%11.40%10.85%10.03%11.47%11.49%11.04%10.96%12.50%14.15%14.87%13.61%11.37%11.63%10.07%10.02% 9.61% 8.22% 8.63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
(C
UR
RE
NT
VA
LU
ES
)
GFCF BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993-2014 R*MILLIONS (CURRENT VALUES)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 87)
GFCF Construction
GFCF Non Residential
GFCF Residential
GFCF Transport Equipment
GFCF Machinery and Equipment
GFCF Computer Related Equipment
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
12
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION AS % OF TOTAL GFCF: 1993 - 2020
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
(C
UR
RE
NT
AN
D C
ON
ST
AN
T 2
01
4 V
AL
UE
S)
GFCF BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993-2014 R*MILLIONS (CURRENT VALUES)LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SCENARIO: 2015-2020 (CONSTANT 2014 VALUE)
(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 86)
GFCF Residential GFCF Non Residential GFCF Construction
GFCF Transport Equipment GFCF Machinery and Equipment GFCF Transfer Costs
GFCF Computer Related Equipment
GFCF Residential
GFCF Construction
GFCF Non Residential
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
13
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF TE, ME, TC AND CRE AS % OF TOTAL GFCF: 1993 - 2020
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
INVESTMENT TE, ME, TC AND CRE AS % OF GFCF: 1993-2014 (CURRENT VALUES)LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SCENARIO: 2015-2020 (CONSTANT 2014 VALUE)
(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 90)
GFCF Transport Equipment
GFCF Machinery and Equipment
GFCF Computer Related Equipment
GFCF Transfer Costs 44%
52%
66%
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
14
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM PROGNOSIS: GFCF YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST
GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (VALUE) FC 2015
-1.13% 1.01% -7.71% 14.02% 6.90%
6.91% 4.30% -3.24% 7.04% 7.04%
2.89% 2.01% -5.37% 6.97% 6.98%
17.87% 18.81% 0.70% -0.35% -0.35%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Weighted Average 2.93% 9.89% -2.60% 4.55% 3.63%
PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: BUILDING PLANS PASSED
GFCF Total Building
GFCF Residential
GFCF Non Residential
Mar-15 2015 YTD Act vs
2014 YTD Act
GFCF Construction
2013 vs 2012 2014 vs 2013
2015 YTD FC vs
2014 YTD Act
THE *YTD FORECAST INDICATES A GFCF MARKET HOLDING ITS OWN (*MARCH)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
15
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: 2014
Total Building
Residential (Incl Rec A&A)
Contractor (50,8%)
44.86% R 36,189
Non Res (Incl Rec A&A) Subcontractor (49,2%)
R 35,04935.60%
Add's & Alt's (Unrecorded) Direct to User (40%)
21.96%
R 182,401 102.42%
Large Chain BM (25%) Large Ind BM (10%)
Specialist Shop (5%) Hyper/Super Market (5%)
(Copyright) BMI-BRSCU
CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: YTD 2014 (DEC)
R 16,028
R 106,857
Labour (40%)
R 39,109
R 26,714
Material (60%)
R 63,408
R 71,238
Indirect via Distribution (60%)
R 64,114
R 5,343
R 10,686
Local Hardware Store (15%)
R 79,885
R 5,343
(R MILLION)
R 71,238
Total Building
R 178,094 R 178,094
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
16
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF RESIDENTIAL: 1993 – 2020
43.2
6
44
.74
43
.91
46
.90
61
.96
80.1
1
86.6
8
90.1
5
82
.79
78
.24
63
.91
64
.67
63.3
8
58
.91
55
.50
59
.88
62
.88
64.7
6
68
.32
72
.76
78
.59
y = 50e0.0204x
R² = 0.1212
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
R M
illi
on
(C
on
sta
nt
2014
Valu
es)
GFCF: Residential: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2014 Values)
(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 3037)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
17
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF RESIDENTIAL: 1993 – 2020
43.2
6
44.7
4
43.9
1 46.9
0
61.9
6
80.1
1
86.6
8 90.1
5
82.7
9
78.2
4
63.9
1
64.6
7
63.3
8
58.9
1
55.5
0 59.8
8 62.8
8
64.7
6 68.3
2 72.7
6
78.5
919.0
3.4
-1.8
6.8
32.1
29.3
8.2
4.0
-8.2
-5.5
-18.3
1.2
-2.0
-7.1
-5.8
7.9
5.03.0
5.5
6.5
8.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Y/Y
Perc
en
tag
e C
han
ge
R M
illi
on
(C
on
sta
nt
2014
Valu
es)
GFCF: Residential: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario (Constant 2014 Values)
(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 3037(2))
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
18
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL: FC 2014 VS 2013
2015/'01 2015/'02 2015/'03 2015/'04
CUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2008 13,691 28,786 44,899 60,678
CUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2014 13,036 26,635 40,966 55,497
CUM GFCF RESIDENTIAL FC 2015 14,066 28,740 44,202 59,881
CUM Q/Q % CHANGE FC 2015 VS 2014 -7.71% 9.58% 12.75% 14.02%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Cu
m Q
/Q P
erc
en
tag
e C
han
ge
R M
illi
on
s
CUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL FC 2015 VS 2014(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings,Chart 106)
YTD FORECASTYTD ACTUAL
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
19
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL 1993 - 2020
42.1
2
45.0
6
41
.60
44.5
2
49.0
7
52.3
0
58.2
1 66.7
2 78.4
0
80
.62
77.5
5
67.1
8
63.1
8
63
.42
62.5
0
67.8
1
72.4
9
75.3
9
78.7
8
82.7
2
87
.68
y = 44.24e0.0321x
R² = 0.71
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
R M
illi
on
(C
on
sta
nt
2014
Valu
es)
GFCF: Non Residential: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario(Constant 2014 Values)
(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 34)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
20
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL 1993 - 2020
42
.12 45
.06
41.6
0 44.5
2
49.0
7 52.3
0
58.2
1
66.7
2
78.4
0
80.6
2
77
.55
67
.18
63.1
8
63.4
2
62
.50
67
.81
72
.49 75
.39 78
.78 8
2.7
2
87
.68
3.0
7.0
-7.7
7.0
10.2
6.6
11.3
14.6
17.5
2.8
-3.8
-13.4
-6.0
0.4
7.0
8.5
6.9
4.04.5
5.06.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Y/Y
Perc
en
tag
e C
han
ge
R M
illi
on
(C
on
sta
nt
2014
Valu
es)
GFCF: Non Residential: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario(Constant 2014 Values)
(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 33)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
21
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM Q/Q GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL: FC 2015 VS 2014
2014/'01 2014/'02 2014/'03 2014/'04
CUM GFCF NON RES BUILDING 2008 15,811 30,699 45,096 60,958
CUM GFCF NON RES BUILDING 2014 15230 30491 45959 62,495
CUM GFCF NON RES BUILDING 2015 16523 33082 49864 67,807
CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2015 VS 2014 -3.24% 1.99% 4.52% 7.04%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Cu
m Q
/Q P
erc
en
tag
e C
han
ge
R M
illi
on
s
CUM Q/Q GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING FC 2015 VS 2014(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 120)
YTD ACTUAL YTD FORECAST
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
22
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: 1993 - 2020
85.3
8
89.8
0
85
.52
91.4
2 111.
03 132.
41 144.
89
156.
87
16
1.1
8
158.
86
141.
46
13
1.8
5
126.
56
12
2.3
2
117.
99
127.
69
13
5.3
6
140.
15
147.
10
15
5.4
8
16
6.2
7
y = 98.911e0.023x
R² = 0.4525
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
R M
illi
on
(C
on
sta
nt
2014
Valu
es)
GFCF: Total Building: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario(Constant 2014 Values)
(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 36)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
23
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: 1993 - 2020
85.3
8
89.8
0
85.5
2 91.4
2
111.0
3
132.4
1
144.8
9
156.8
7
161.1
8
158.8
6
141.4
6
131.8
5
126.5
6
122.3
2
117.9
9 127.6
9 135.3
6
140.1
5 147.1
0 155.4
8
166.2
7
3.00%
5.17%
-4.77%
6.90%
21.45%
19.25%
9.42%8.27%
2.75%
-1.45%
-10.95%
-6.79%
-4.02%-3.34%-3.54%
8.22%
6.01%
3.54%
4.96%5.70%
6.94%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
R M
illi
on
(C
on
sta
nt
2014
Valu
es)
GFCF: Total Building: 2000-2020: Lower Middle Road Scenario(Constant 2014 Values)
(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 35)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
24
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: FC 2015 VS 2014
2014/'01 2014/'02 2014/'03 2014/'04
CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2008 25,907 53,850 83,235 113,891
CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2014 30,773 59,576 88,581 117,992
CUM GFCF TOTAL BUILDING FC 2015 29,122 60,358 92,600 126,222
CUM Q/Q % CHANGE FC 2015 VS 2014 -5.37% 1.31% 4.54% 6.97%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Cu
m Q
/Q P
erc
en
tag
e C
han
ge
R M
illi
on
s
CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING FC 2015 VS 2014(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 113)
YTD FORECASTYTD ACTUAL
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
25
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: 2014
Total Construction
Contractor (50,8%)
R 46,901
Subcontractor (49,2%)
R 45,424
Direct to User (40%)
Large Chain BM (25%) Large Ind BM (10%)
Specialist Shop (5%) Hyper/Super Market (5%)
(Copyright) BMI-BRSCU
R 34,622
CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: YTD 2014 (DEC)
(R MILLION)
R 230,811
R 92,324
R 230,811
Labour (40%)
Material (60%)
R 138,487 R 7,809
R 13,849
Local Hardware Store (15%)
Indirect via Distribution (60%)
R 83,092
R 6,924 R 20,773 R 6,924
Total Construction
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
26
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF CONSTRUCTION: 1993 - 2020
46.5
3
41.3
4
45
.40
57
.58
63.8
6
68.2
5
80.2
1
11
3.3
8
16
4.3
6 195.
23
18
0.5
5
185.
98
181.
16 20
2.5
1 230.
81
226.
19
237.
50 25
5.3
2
27
5.7
4 300.
28 31
6.2
0
y = 42.29e0.1063x
R² = 0.912
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
R M
illi
on
(C
on
sta
nt
2014
Valu
es)
GFCF: Construction: 2000-2014: Constant 2014 Prices(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 3035)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
27
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM GFCF CONSTRUCTION: 1993 - 2020
46.5
3
41.3
4
45
.40 57
.58
63
.86
68
.25 80
.21
113.
38
164.
36
195.
23
180.
55
185.
98
18
1.1
6 202.
51
230.
81
22
6.1
9
23
7.5
0 25
5.3
2 275.
74
30
0.2
8
316.
20
-4.0
-11.1
9.8
26.8
10.9
6.9
17.5
41.4
45.0
18.8
-7.5
3.0
-2.6
11.814.0
-2.0
5.0
7.5 8.0 8.9
5.3
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Y/Y
Perc
en
tag
e C
han
ge
R M
illi
on
(C
on
sta
nt
2014
Valu
es)
GFCF: Construction: 2000-2014: Constant 2014 Prices(Source: SARB; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings; Longterm Forecast Chart 3035)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
28
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM Q/Q GFCF CONSTRUCTION: FC 2015 VS 2014
2014/'01 2014/'02 2014/'03 2014/'04
CUM GFCF CONSTRUCTION 2008 25,398 55,035 90,064 128,376
CUM GFCF CONSTRUCTION 2014 57,364 114,863 172,406 230,811
CUM GFCF CONSTRUCTION 2015 57766 112053 168828 230013
CUM Q/Q % CHANGE GFCF CONSTR 2015VS 2014
0.70% -2.45% -2.08% -0.35%
-3.00%
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Cu
m Q
/Q P
erc
en
tag
e C
han
ge
R M
illi
on
s
CUM Q/Q GFCF CONSTRUCTION: FC 2015 VS 2014 (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 126)
YTD FORECASTYTD ACTUAL
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
29
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM TOTAL MORTGAGE ADVANCES: 1979 - 2014
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
Gold
boom
SA
SO
L II
SA
SO
L III
Auste
rity
pa
cka
ge
Ru
bic
on s
peech
De
bt sta
ndstill
Eco
nom
ic r
eco
ve
ry
Mandela
's r
ele
ase
De
mocra
tic E
lection
Tra
nsitio
n to D
em
ocra
cy
Cu
rrency c
olla
pse
World T
rade C
entr
e
BN
G H
ou
sin
g P
rogra
mm
e
Sub
Pri
me C
risis
(N
CA
)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Y/Y
Perc
en
ata
ge C
han
ge
Defining Events
R M
illi
on
s (C
urr
en
t V
alu
e)
Total Mortgage Loans and Readvances: 1979-2014 (Current Values) (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart 611)
R233 Billion taken out of the system
in two years!
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
30
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM MORTGAGE ADVANCES ON NEW AND EXISTING BUILDINGS: 2000 - 2014
65409
86956
100116
127638
189410 2
77697 357850
384051
252978
173212 249458
228437
214895
230454
288928
10879
1339114891
15897
27565
32446
30941
28574
30076
16359
13123
1556518955
20892
36210
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
R m
illi
on
s (C
urr
en
t valu
e)
Mortgages advanced on Existing and New Buildings: 2000-2014(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart 600)
Mortgages Advanced to Existing Buildings Mortgages Advanced to New Buildings
Mortgage advances on Existing Buildings is 8-12X that advanced on New Buildings.
Private Residential BC = R34 071 Billion andMortgage Advances
on New Buildings = R36 210 Billion
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
31
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM ACTUAL NEW MORTGAGE ADVANCES ON EXIST BLDNGS: FC 2015 VS 2014
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Y/Y Cum Actual 2007 25,978 62,107 100,948 132,633 173,165 202,794 234,730 266,502 294,231 326,922 358,811 384,052
Y/Y Cum Actual 2014 18,193 42,775 69,259 92,201 118,736 144,731 168,775 192,196 218,466 245,382 268,802 288,919
Y/Y Cum Actual 2015 20,688 46,648 75,969 98,232 123,155 147,067 171,046 196,181 221,019 248,521 274,813 295,883
YTD FC 2015 vs 2014 % Change 13.71% 9.05% 9.69% 6.54% 3.72% 1.61% 1.35% 2.07% 1.17% 1.28% 2.24% 2.41%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
R M
illi
on
s (C
urr
en
t V
alu
es)
Cum Actual New Mortgage Loans and Readvances applied on Existing Buildings: YTD FC 2015 vs 2014 and 2007 by month: January - Dec
(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 565(2))
YTD FORECASTYTD ACTUAL
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
32
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM CUM ACT NEW MORTGAGE LOANS FOR CONSTR OF NEW BLDNGS: FC 2015 VS 2014
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Y/Y Cum Actual 2007 1,884 4,617 7,589 9,943 13,030 15,327 17,955 20,424 22,582 25,076 27,213 28,574
Y/Y Cum Actual 2014 2,047 6,974 10,617 12,831 15,564 18,298 21,798 24,609 27,721 31,142 33,855 36,211
Y/Y Cum Actual 2015 2,331 5,124 8,906 11,857 15,291 18,612 22,030 25,359 28,667 32,280 35,511 38,082
% Change Y/Y Cum Actual 2015 vs 2014 13.87% -26.53% -16.12% -7.59% -1.76% 1.72% 1.06% 3.05% 3.41% 3.65% 4.89% 5.17%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
% D
iffe
ren
ce Y
/Y C
um
Actu
al 2015 v
s 2
014
R M
illi
on
s (C
urr
en
t V
alu
es)
Y/Y Cum Actual Gross new Mortgage Loans and Readvances for Construction of new Buildings2015 vs 2014 and 2007 by month
(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 557)
CUM YTD FORECASTCUM YTD ACTUAL
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
33
NET MORGAGES IN THE PIPELINE (NMIP) MORTGAGE LOANS FOR CONSTRUCTION OF NEW BUILDINGS VS RES BC: 1993 - 2015
From 1993- End 2006 the Net Mortgages in the Pipeline (NMIP) = + 24,38%;
From 2007- Mid 2009 NMIP WORSENED to - 51,02%
and from mid 2009 to Dec 2014 it IMPROVED significantly to + 13,38%.
This means that all BC are funded by Mortgages and the use of
Unsecured Loans to make up the Shortfall has declined.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
R M
illi
on
s (C
urr
en
t V
alu
e)
NET MORTGAGES IN THE PIPELINE Gross new mortgage loans and re-advances for
construction of new buildings vs Residential BC: By Month: 1993- FC 2015(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 553)
Gross new mortgage loans and re-advances for construction of buildings
Residential BC
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Gross new mortgage loans and re-advances for construction of buildings )
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Residential BC)
Trend Break
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
34
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: MORTGAGE ADVANCES, VACANT LAND: YTD FC 2015 VS 2014
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Y/Y Cum Actual 2014 163 397 856 1065 1345 1657 1956 2273 2536 2970 3301 3516
Y/Y Cum FC 2015 196 706 1,317 1,739 2,208 2,662 3,130 3,599 4,039 4,527 4,989 5,381
% Difference Y/Y FC 2015 vs Y/Y Cum Actual:2014 28.35% 11.20% 61.51% 47.92% 41.58% 49.41% 50.23% 42.60% 44.42% 50.99% 55.93% 56.06%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
R M
illi
on
s (C
urr
en
t V
alu
e)
Net New Mortgage Loans and Readvances applied on Vacant LandCum 2015 vs Cum Actual 2014
(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 583)
CUM YTD FORECASTCUM YTD ACTUAL
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
35
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: MORTGAGE ADVANCES, TOTAL GROSS: YTD FC 2015 VS 2014
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Y/Y Cum Actual 2007 30,111 71,925 116,917 153,368 199,882 233,827 270,620 307,387 339,290 376,890 413,167 441,410
Y/Y Cum Actual 2014 20,403 50,146 80,732 106,097 135,645 164,686 192,529 219,078 248,723 279,494 305,958 328,646
Y/Y CUM Actual 2015 23,214 52,477 86,191 111,815 140,649 168,328 196,163 225,132 253,689 285,305 315,306 339,399
Y/Y Cum % Change Actual 2015 vs 2014 13.78% 4.65% 6.76% 5.39% 3.69% 2.21% 1.89% 2.76% 2.00% 2.08% 3.06% 3.27%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
R M
illi
on
s
Y/Y Cum Actual Total gross new Mortgage Loans and Readvances:FC 2015 vs 2014 and 2007 by month: January - Dec
(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 562)
CUM YTD FORECAST
Y/Y
Cu
m %
Ch
an
ge A
ctu
al
2015 v
s 2
014
CUM YTD ACTUAL
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
36
THE YTD FORECAST INDICATES AN IMPROVING MORTGAGE MARKET
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: MORTGAGE ADVANCES BY SEGMENT: YTD FC 2015 VS 2014
Mar-15 2015
MORTGAGE ADVANCES (VALUE) FORECAST
Mortgage Advances on Existing Buildings 7.24% 25.37% 9.69% 2.41% -0.69%
Mortgage Advances on Construction of New Buildings 10.22% 73.33% -16.12% 5.17% 4.87%
Mortgage Advances on Vacant Land -47.57% 56.06% 53.86% 53.04% 56.10%
Total Gross New Mortgage Loans and Re-advances 6.49% 29.59% 6.76% 3.27% 0.47%
Total Mortgage Loans Outstanding 1.72% 4.44% 4.70% 1.60% 0.47%
Mortgage Advances Weighted Average 2.70% 10.42% 6.48% 2.05% 0.61%
PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: GFCF
2013 vs 2012 2014 vs 2013
2015 YTD Act vs
2014 YTD Act
2015 YTD FC vs
2014 YTD Act
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
37
CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2014 (R MILLION)
2,767
17,062
7,592
520
6,130
20,993
569
33
20,824
76,490
4,694
3,981
5,524
1,300
3,245
10,951
3,335
29,466
62,495
35,652
3,457
178,094
0
20
,00
0
40
,00
0
60
,00
0
80
,00
0
10
0,0
00
12
0,0
00
14
0,0
00
16
0,0
00
18
0,0
00
20
0,0
00
Dwelling-houses < 80 m2
Dwelling-houses > 80 m2
Townhouses & Flats
Other (Incl. hotels & casinos)
Additions & alterations
PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL
Affordable Housing
General Government
Public corporations
Private Business Enterprises
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL
PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL
Offices
Shops
Industrial & warehouse
Other
Additions & Alterations
PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL
General Government
Public Corporations
Private Business Enterprises
TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL
Unrecorded Res Add's and Alt's
Unrecorded Non Res Add's and Alt's
GRAND TOTAL BUILDING
INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND BY SEGMENT: 2014: R MILLION(TOTAL = R178 094 MILLION)
(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Building Industry Dashboard, Inv in Bulding 2002-2020 (R), Chart 2756)
Private Residential BC = R34,071 Billion andMortgage Advances on New Buildings = R36,210 Billion.
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
38
2012
M2*1000 M2*1000 Change (%) M2*1000 Change (%) M2*1000 Change (%)
903 809 -10.46% 764 -5.47% 772 1.06%
2,805 2,859 1.91% 2,777 -2.88% 2,814 1.33%
1,105 1,218 10.27% 1,166 -4.25% 1,212 3.93%
46 89 94.24% 89 -0.15% 104 17.65%
1,467 1,722 17.41% 1,121 -34.93% 1,172 4.60%
8913 7326 -17.81% 5,798 -20.85% 5,393 -7.00%
316 236 -25.28% 157 -33.32% 960 510.97%
45 63 41.58% 9 -85.62% 17 87.66%
9930 7573 -23.74% 5,752 -24.05% 5,895 2.49%
25,529 21894 -14.24% 17,633 -19.46% 18,340 4.01%
463 796 71.98% 609 -23.42% 616 1.08%
499 566 13.36% 573 1.24% 593 3.50%
1,128 955 -15.32% 1,125 17.72% 1,128 0.28%
201 230 14.42% 213 -7.11% 218 2.38%
550 665 21.04% 497 -25.31% 538 8.34%
1,605 1,954 21.69% 1,763 -9.76% 2,808 59.27%
1,177 1,075 -8.65% 537 -50.07% 709 32.06%
5,035 4,142 -17.73% 4,743 14.52% 4,286 -9.63%
10657 10382 -2.58% 10060 -3.11% 10896 8.31%
13,527 10,666 -21.14% 6,518 -38.89% 6,818 4.60%
944 1,130 19.72% 632 -44.05% 685 8.34%
50,657 44,072 -13.00% 34,843 -20.94% 36,739 5.44%
PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL
Affordable Housing
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL
Dwelling-houses < 80 m2
Dwelling-houses > 80 m2
Unrecorded Res Adds and Alts
General Government
Public corporations
Private Business Enterprises
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL
PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL
Townhouses & Flats
Other (Incl. hotels & casinos)
Additions & alterations
2013 2014 FC 2015
Unrecorded Non Res Adds and Alts
GRAND TOTAL
PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL
General Government
Public corporations
Private Business Enterprises
TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL
Offices
Shops
Industrial & warehouse
Other
Additions & Alterations
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2012 – FC 2015
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
39
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2014 (M2*1000)
0
764
2,777
1,166
89
1,121
5,798
157
9
5,752
17,633
609
573
1,125
213
497
1,763
537
4,743
10,060
6,518
632
34,843
0
5,0
00
10
,00
0
15
,00
0
20
,00
0
25
,00
0
30
,00
0
35
,00
0
40
,00
0
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL
Dwelling-houses < 80 m2
Dwelling-houses > 80 m2
Townhouses & Flats
Other (Incl. hotels & casinos)
Additions & alterations
PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL
Affordable Housing
General Government
Public corporations
Private Business Enterprises
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL
PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL
Offices
Shops
Industrial & warehouse
Other
Additions & Alterations
PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL
General Government
Public corporations
Private Business Enterprises
TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL
Unrecorded Res Adds and Alts
Unrecorded Non Res Adds and Alts
GRAND TOTAL
INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND BY SEGMENT: 2014: M2*1000(TOTAL = 34 843 M2*1000)
(Source: SARB, StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Building Industry Dashboard, Inv in Building 2001-2020 (M2), Chart 21(5))
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
40
40
2012
R*Million R*Million Change (%) R Million Change (%) R Million Change (%)
2,647 2,466 -6.87% 2,767 12.23% 2,796 1.06%
16,511 16,942 2.61% 17,062 0.71% 17,289 1.33%
6,624 7,670 15.79% 7,592 -1.01% 7,891 3.93%
347 525 51.23% 520 -0.88% 612 17.65%
7,779 8,762 12.64% 6,130 -30.04% 6,412 4.60%
25525 20979 -17.81% 20,993 0.07% 19,524 -7.00%
904 675 -25.28% 569 -15.70% 3,477 510.97%
127 180 41.58% 33 -81.82% 62 87.66%
28438 21687 -23.74% 20,824 -3.98% 21,342 2.49%
88,902 79,885 -10.14% 76,490 -4.25% 79,405 3.81%
4,022 7,232 79.80% 4,694 -35.09% 4,745 1.08%
3,558 4,008 12.67% 3,981 -0.68% 4,120 3.50%
6,012 5,331 -11.32% 5,524 3.62% 5,539 0.28%
1,352 1,416 4.74% 1,300 -8.20% 1,330 2.38%
4,231 5,065 19.72% 3,245 -35.94% 3,515 8.34%
9,035 10,994 21.69% 10,951 -0.39% 17,472 59.55%
6,624 6,051 -8.65% 3,335 -44.89% 4,412 32.29%
28,334 23,310 -17.73% 29,466 26.41% 26,673 -9.48%
63167 63408 0.38% 62,495 -1.44% 67,807 8.50%
64,621 50,957 -21.14% 35,652 -30.04% 37,291 4.60%
4,508 5,397 19.72% 3,457 -35.94% 3,746 8.34%
221,198 199647 -9.74% 178,094 -10.80% 188,248 5.70%
Dwelling-houses < 80 m2
Townhouses & Flats
Other (Incl. hotels & casinos)
INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: 2012-FC 2015: R MILLION (CONSTANT PRICES)
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL
2014
Public corporations
TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL
Unrecorded Res Adds and Alts
Unrecorded Non Res Adds and Alts
GRAND TOTAL
2013
PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL \
General Government
Public corporations
Private Business Enterprises
Shops
Industrial & warehouse
Other
Additions & Alterations
Private Business Enterprises
FC 2015
Additions & alterations
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL
PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL
Offices
PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL
Affordable Housing
General Government
Dwelling-houses > 80 m2
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2012-FC 2015 (R*MILLION)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
41
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL BC BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: AVE 1993-2014
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
42
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL BC BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: AVE 1993-2014
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Western Cape
Eastern Cape
Gauteng
Kwazulu Natal
Mpumalanga
Northern Cape
Free State
Limpopo
Northwest
Total
WesternCape
EasternCape
GautengKwazulu
NatalMpumalang
aNorthern
CapeFree StateLimpopoNorthwestTotal
Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 29.75%4.21%43.94%1.37%10.26%0.51%6.53%1.28%2.14%100.00%
Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 21.33%4.25%45.37%11.94%6.03%0.25%1.58%3.25%5.99%100.00%
Flats and townhouses 21.33%4.25%45.37%11.94%6.03%0.25%1.58%3.25%5.99%100.00%
Total Residential 22.07%4.51%38.13%7.77%6.82%0.80%2.02%1.95%4.28%88.35%
Other buildings 39.74%3.59%12.64%0.00%21.68%0.72%8.22%11.24%2.17%100.00%
Additions and alterations 34.96%8.44%26.58%12.89%9.45%2.27%2.00%0.69%2.74%100.00%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 22.07%4.51%38.13%7.77%6.82%0.80%2.02%1.95%4.28%88.35%
RES BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: AVERAGE 1993-2014: M2(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Prov BC Dashboard, Chart 728)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
43
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP AND BC BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: YTD 2014
RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: 2014: M2
Total RSA Western Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern Cape Free State Limpopo Northwest Total
Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 764,268 29.75% 4.21% 43.94% 1.37% 10.26% 0.51% 6.53% 1.28% 2.14% 100.00%
Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 2,776,600 20.72% 4.40% 49.67% 8.15% 6.58% 0.74% 1.35% 2.34% 6.04% 100.00%
Flats and townhouses 1,166,426 21.33% 4.25% 45.37% 11.94% 6.03% 0.25% 1.58% 3.25% 5.99% 100.00%
Other buildings 88,528 39.74% 3.59% 12.64% 0.00% 21.68% 0.72% 8.22% 11.24% 2.17% 100.00%
Additions and alterations 1,120,747 34.96% 8.44% 26.58% 12.89% 9.45% 2.27% 2.00% 0.69% 2.74% 100.00%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2014 5,916,569 24.99% 5.10% 43.15% 8.80% 7.72% 0.91% 2.29% 2.20% 4.84% 100.00%
% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Residential -11.65% -36.31% -16.76% 5.47% -12.97% 23.26% -9.56% -31.26% 29.34% 7.57% -11.65%
NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: 2014: M2
Total RSA Western Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern Cape Free State Limpopo Northwest Total
Office and banking 609,266 21.61% 1.98% 60.39% 9.34% 1.33% 2.98% 0.15% 0.83% 1.40% 100.00%
Shopping 572,864 4.38% 7.24% 50.28% 3.69% 3.89% 0.51% 0.33% 2.06% 27.62% 100.00%
Industrial and warehouse 1,124,811 18.46% 8.66% 50.13% 14.52% 4.71% 0.91% 0.00% 0.80% 1.80% 100.00%
Other buildings 213,251 28.45% 4.06% 33.02% 25.06% 6.36% 0.11% 0.68% 0.04% 2.23% 100.00%
Additions and alterations 496,990 38.52% 10.39% 26.25% 12.15% 4.15% 2.47% 0.71% 0.19% 5.17% 100.00%
TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2014 3,017,182 20.43% 7.00% 47.09% 11.77% 3.90% 1.45% 0.26% 0.89% 7.20% 100.00%
% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013 Non Residential -6.06% -44.16% -25.38% 27.77% -3.04% 28.52% 78.71% -90.77% -36.41% 108.64% -6.06%
GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2014 8,933,751 23.45% 5.74% 44.48% 9.80% 6.43% 1.09% 1.60% 1.76% 5.64% 100.00%
% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Total Res & Non Res -9.84% -38.84% -20.54% 12.49% -9.20% 24.30% 16.28% -49.00% 9.86% 35.98% -9.84%
* Dec 2014
RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: 2014: M2
Total RSA Western Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern Cape Free State Limpopo Northwest Total
Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 764,268 227,365 32,187 335,835 10,464 78,450 3,908 49,908 9,799 16,352 764,268
Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 2,776,600 575,178 122,217 1,379,070 226,392 182,734 20,656 37,556 65,019 167,778 2,776,600
Flats and townhouses 1,166,426 248,812 49,539 529,253 139,322 70,374 2,944 18,431 37,893 69,858 1,166,426
Other buildings 88,528 35,179 3,174 11,192 0 19,195 640 7,274 9,954 1,920 88,528
Additions and alterations 1,120,747 391,759 94,578 297,924 144,453 105,892 25,416 22,359 7,691 30,675 1,120,747
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD 2014 5,916,569 1,478,293 301,695 2,553,274 520,631 456,645 53,564 135,528 130,356 286,583 5,916,569
% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Residential -11.65% -36.31% -16.76% 5.47% -12.97% 23.26% -9.56% -31.26% 29.34% 7.57% -11.65%
5,916,569 1,478,293 301,695 2,553,274 520,631 456,645 53,564 135,528 130,356 286,583 5,916,569
NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) BY SEGMENT AND PROVINCE: 2014: M2
Total RSA Western Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumalanga Northern Cape Free State Limpopo Northwest Total
Office and banking 609,266 131,674 12,058 367,908 56,894 8,113 18,129 895 5,085 8,510 609,266
Shopping 572,864 25,102 41,473 288,024 21,136 22,310 2,911 1,884 11,817 158,207 572,864
Industrial and warehouse 1,124,811 207,652 97,390 563,886 163,378 52,984 10,275 0 9,052 20,194 1,124,811
Other buildings 213,251 60,664 8,654 70,414 53,443 13,555 242 1,442 78 4,759 213,251
Additions and alterations 496,990 191,458 51,625 130,479 60,397 20,621 12,254 3,514 944 25,698 496,990
TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD 2014 3,017,182 616,550 211,200 1,420,711 355,248 117,583 43,811 7,735 26,976 217,368 3,017,182
% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013 Non Residential -6.06% -44.16% -25.38% 27.77% -3.04% 28.52% 78.71% -90.77% -36.41% 108.64% -6.06%
GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2014 8,933,751 2,094,843 512,895 3,973,985 875,879 574,228 97,375 143,263 157,332 503,951 8,933,751
% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Total Res & Non Res -9.84% -38.84% -20.54% 12.49% -9.20% 24.30% 16.28% -49.00% 9.86% 35.98% -9.84%
* Dec 2014 3,017,182 616,550 211,200 1,420,711 355,248 117,583 43,811 7,735 26,976 217,368 3,017,182
8,933,751 2,094,843 512,895 3,973,985 875,879 574,228 97,375 143,263 157,332 503,951 8,933,751
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
44
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2014
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
WC
EC
GAU
KZN
MPUM
NC
FS
LIMP
NW
Total
WCECGAUKZNMPUMNCFSLIMPNWTotal
Dwelling-house < 80 square metres 26.31%5.36%45.98%7.53%7.25%0.11%4.91%1.95%0.60%100.00%
Dwelling-house => 80 square metres 20.42%4.88%43.06%9.51%8.32%1.38%3.95%3.41%5.07%100.00%
Flats and townhouses 19.64%1.33%40.50%20.52%2.43%0.89%5.50%2.51%6.68%100.00%
Other buildings 16.97%4.64%11.97%19.10%5.01%14.83%18.87%4.55%4.07%100.00%
Additions and alterations 26.90%10.10%31.27%11.54%6.32%1.91%4.93%2.03%4.98%100.00%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2014 22.67%5.84%38.85%12.00%6.56%1.58%4.87%2.73%4.89%100.00%
% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Residential 4.28%10.57%11.52%22.35%7.94%45.37%19.63%-8.57%-17.22%8.93%
RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2014: M2(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA Chart 966)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
45
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2015 vs 2014
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Western Cape
Eastern Cape
Gauteng
Kwazulu Natal
Mpumalanga
Northern Cape
Free State
Limpopo
Northwest
Total
WesternCape
EasternCape
GautengKwazulu
NatalMpumala
ngaNorthern
CapeFreeState
LimpopoNorthwestTotal
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2015 31.45%11.01%27.34%11.04%7.02%0.22%5.58%1.67%4.66%100.00%
% Change Cum YTD 2015 vs 2014: Residential 42.51%5.21%-8.45%-15.25%12.97%-85.44%8.74%-3.32%8.67%-2.83%
RES BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) BY PROVINCE AND SECTOR: YTD 2015* VS 2014: M2 (*MAY)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; BPP SA, Sheet 967)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
46
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2014
-110% -90% -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70%
Western Cape
Eastern Cape
Gauteng
Kwazulu Natal
Mpumalanga
Northern Cape
Free State
Limpopo
Northwest
Total
WesternCape
EasternCape
GautengKwazulu
NatalMpumalan
gaNorthern
CapeFree StateLimpopoNorthwestTotal
Office and banking 21.61%1.98%60.39%9.34%1.33%2.98%0.15%0.83%1.40%100.00%
Shopping 4.38%7.24%50.28%3.69%3.89%0.51%0.33%2.06%27.62%100.00%
Industrial and warehouse 18.46%8.66%50.13%14.52%4.71%0.91%0.00%0.80%1.80%100.00%
Other buildings 28.45%4.06%33.02%25.06%6.36%0.11%0.68%0.04%2.23%100.00%
Additions and alterations 38.52%10.39%26.25%12.15%4.15%2.47%0.71%0.19%5.17%100.00%
Total Non Res Buildings Completed 20.43%7.00%47.09%11.77%3.90%1.45%0.26%0.89%7.20%100.00%
% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013 Non Residential -44.16%-25.38%27.77%-3.04%28.52%78.71%-90.77%-36.41%108.64%-6.06%
GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES 23.45%5.74%44.48%9.80%6.43%1.09%1.60%1.76%5.64%100.00%
% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Total Res & Non Res -38.84%-20.54%12.49%-9.20%24.30%16.28%-49.00%9.86%35.98%-9.84%
* Dec 2014
NON RES TOTAL AND GRAND TOTAL BC BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2014: M2(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU BC Dashboard, Chart 737)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
47
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS COMPLETED BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2014
-110% -90% -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70%
Western Cape
Eastern Cape
Gauteng
Kwazulu Natal
Mpumalanga
Northern Cape
Free State
Limpopo
Northwest
Total
WesternCape
EasternCape
GautengKwazulu
NatalMpumalan
gaNorthern
CapeFree StateLimpopoNorthwestTotal
Office and banking 21.61%1.98%60.39%9.34%1.33%2.98%0.15%0.83%1.40%100.00%
Shopping 4.38%7.24%50.28%3.69%3.89%0.51%0.33%2.06%27.62%100.00%
Industrial and warehouse 18.46%8.66%50.13%14.52%4.71%0.91%0.00%0.80%1.80%100.00%
Other buildings 28.45%4.06%33.02%25.06%6.36%0.11%0.68%0.04%2.23%100.00%
Additions and alterations 38.52%10.39%26.25%12.15%4.15%2.47%0.71%0.19%5.17%100.00%
Total Non Res Buildings Completed 20.43%7.00%47.09%11.77%3.90%1.45%0.26%0.89%7.20%100.00%
% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013 Non Residential -44.16%-25.38%27.77%-3.04%28.52%78.71%-90.77%-36.41%108.64%-6.06%
GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES 23.45%5.74%44.48%9.80%6.43%1.09%1.60%1.76%5.64%100.00%
% Change Cum YTD 2014 vs 2013: Total Res & Non Res -38.84%-20.54%12.49%-9.20%24.30%16.28%-49.00%9.86%35.98%-9.84%
* Dec 2014
NON RES TOTAL AND GRAND TOTAL BC BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2014: M2(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU BC Dashboard, Chart 737)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
48
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: TOTAL NON RES AND GRAND TOTAL C BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: 2015 VS 2014
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%
Western Cape
Eastern Cape
Gauteng
Kwazulu Natal
Mpumalanga
Northern Cape
Free State
Limpopo
Northwest
Total
WesternCape
EasternCape
GautengKwazulu
NatalMpumalanga
NorthernCape
Free StateLimpopoNorthwestTotal
TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL CUM YTD* 2015 24.22%4.91%39.76%17.95%2.19%0.40%2.57%0.87%7.11%100.00%
% Change Cum YTD 2015 vs 2014 Non Residential 0.98%-63.28%-37.13%67.05%-61.00%-88.31%1210.68%-20.44%35.45%-24.78%
GRAND TOTAL RES AND NON RES CUM YTD 2015 26.87%4.89%39.17%10.45%5.80%1.00%4.37%1.20%6.25%100.00%
% Change Cum YTD 2015 vs 2014: Total Res & Non Res 12.55%-25.86%-9.72%9.10%-12.85%-35.64%221.46%-12.03%23.41%-14.63%
TOTAL NON RES & GRAND TOTAL RES & NON RES BC BY PROVINCE:*YTD 2015 vs 2014: M2 (*MAY)
(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Buildings Completed RSA, Chart 740)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
49
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: PRIVATE NON RESIDENTIAL BC BY PROVINCE AND SEGMENT: YTD 2014
11.6
9%
2.9
5%
2.8
8%
2.8
3%
2.7
7%
2.6
4%
2.5
6%
2.4
9%
2.4
3%
2.2
9%
1.9
4%
1.8
4%
1.8
3%
1.8
3%
1.7
1%
1.6
4%
1.4
4%
1.4
1%
1.3
5%
1.3
3%
1.2
8%
1.1
8%
1.0
9%
1.0
4%
1.0
0%
0.9
5%
0.8
8%
0.8
3%
0.8
3%
0.8
2%
0.8
1%
0.8
0%
0.7
9%
0.7
6%
0.7
4%
0.6
9%
0.6
9%
0.6
8%
0.6
6%
0.6
4%
0.6
0%
0.5
9%
0.5
6%
0.5
5%
0.5
4%
0.5
3%
0.5
2%
0.5
2%
0.5
2%
0.4
8%
0.4
5%
0.4
5%
0.4
5%
0.4
4%
0.4
4%
0.4
2%
0.4
2%
0.4
0%
0.3
9%
0.3
8%
0.3
7%
0.3
7%
0.3
7%
0.3
6%
0.3
6%
0.3
5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
City o
f Joha
nnesburg
City o
f T
sh
wane -
South
ern
Reg
ion
City o
f C
ape T
ow
n -
Nort
hern
Dis
tric
t
Ekurh
ule
ni M
etr
opolit
an M
un
icip
alit
y -
…
Eth
ekw
ini M
unic
ipalit
y -
Centr
al
Ne
lson M
andela
Ba
y M
unic
ipalit
y
Ste
ve
Tsh
we
te L
oca
l M
unic
ipalit
y
Ekurh
ule
ni M
etr
opolit
an M
un
icip
alit
y -
…
City o
f C
ape T
ow
n -
Mitchells
Pla
in /…
City o
f C
ape T
ow
n -
Table
Bay D
istr
ict
Eth
ekw
ini M
unic
ipalit
y -
Nort
h
More
tele
Lo
ca
l M
unic
ipalit
y
Eth
ekw
ini M
unic
ipalit
y -
Oute
r W
est…
Gre
ate
r Le
taba
Munic
ipalit
y
Mosse
l B
ay M
unic
ipalit
y
Ekurh
ule
ni M
etr
opolit
an M
un
icip
alit
y -
…
Em
ala
hle
ni L
ocal M
unic
ipalit
y -
Witbank
Georg
e M
unic
ipalit
y
Um
ngen
i M
unic
ipa
lity
Potc
hefs
troom
City C
ouncil
Ne
wca
stle M
unic
ipalit
y
Mbom
bela
Loca
l M
unic
ipalit
y
Overs
trand M
unic
ipa
lity
Lukhan
ji M
unic
ipalit
y
Thab
a C
hw
eu
Munic
ipalit
y -
Lyd
enburg
Govan M
beki M
unic
ipalit
y
Ekurh
ule
ni M
etr
opolit
an M
un
icip
alit
y -
…
Sol P
laatje
Munic
ipalit
y
Aba
Qulu
si M
unic
ipalit
y
Madib
eng L
ocal M
unic
ipalit
y
Elu
ndin
i Local M
unic
ipalit
y
Gre
ate
r T
aung L
ocal M
unic
ipalit
y
Bre
ede V
alle
y M
unic
ipalit
y
Buildings Completed by Municipality in SA in descending order: 2012 (m2)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Database)
32 Municipalities accounts for 63% of building s completed in South
Africa.
The City of Johannesburgaccounts for 11,69% of building s
completed in South Africa by Municipality.
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
50
50
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: THE MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCT GROUPS BY VALUE: 2013
18.67%
17.20%
8.51%
3.32%
9.21%
6.25%
5.19%
3.10%
6.45%
2.24%
2.00%
3.20%
2.32%
2.08%
1.34%
2.56%
1.24%
1.44%
0.76%
1.16%
0.91%
0.43%
0.30%
0.11%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
Cement
Aggregate and Sand
Reinforcing Steel and Sections
Decorative Paint
Infrastructure Pipes and Fittings
Roofing and Vertical Cladding
Walling
Flooring
Flatboard (PB, MDF, Other)**
Sanware
Roof Trusses
Frames
Taps, Mixers and Fittings
Ceilings and Partitioning
Glass and Mirrors
Geysers
Plumbing Pipes and Fittings
Paving
Doors
Insulation
Windowsills, Fasciaboards and…
Garage Doors
Rainwater Goods
Wall Tiles
The market for major Building Product Groups by value: 2014 (Source: BMI-BRSCU: Chart 2050)
Total value of major Building Product Groups = R128 Billion in 2014.
Major Building Product Groups account for 45% of Total Building and Construction
Materials and 27% of Total Investment in Building and Construction.
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
51
51
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: THE MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCT GROUPS BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2013
0
1.55%
9.58%
4.26%
0.29%
3.44%
19.13%
11.79%
0.32%
0.02%
11.69%
23.82%
20.02%
62.97%
2.64%
2.24%
3.10%
0.73%
1.82%
10.52%
1.94%
24.57%
37.03%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL
- Dwelling Houses < 80m2
- Dwelling houses > 80m2
- Townhouses and Flats
- Other (Including Hotels)
- Additions and Alterations
Sub-total
PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL
- Affordable Housing
- General Government
- Public Corporations
- Private Business Enterprises
Sub-total
- Unrecorded Res Additions and Alterations (EQ…
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL
BUILDING TYPE : NON RESIDENTIAL
- Offices
- Shops (Commercial)
- Industrial
- Other (Including Casinos)
- Recorded Additions and Alterations
TOTAL PRIVATE NON RESIDENTIAL SEGMENT
- Unrecorded Non Res Additions and Alterations
TOTAL PUBLIC NON RESIDENTIAL SEGMENT
TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
DEMAND FOR MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCT GROUPS BY TYPE OF BUILDING: 2014 (R MILLION)(Source: BMI-BRSCU: Chart 2055)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
52
52
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: THE MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCT GROUPS BY PROVINCE: 2014
Western Cape Eastern Cape Gauteng Kwazulu Natal Mpumulanga Northern Cape Free State Limpopo Northwest
Province 27.19% 6.72% 37.42% 14.12% 3.92% 1.24% 3.88% 1.56% 3.95%
27.19%
6.72%
37.42%
14.12%
3.92%
1.24%
3.88%
1.56%
3.95%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
The market for Major Building Product Groups by Province: 2014(Source: SARB, StatsSA; MFA; BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart 2052)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
53
DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (TONNES) ENDED 2013 AT + 5,26% COMPARED TO 2012
53
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: YTD 2014 VS 2013
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cum YTD sales: 2013 773,708 1,652,39 2,619,42 3,578,14 4,649,90 5,820,21 6,839,07 7,901,84 9,058,79 10,173,4 11,378,3 12,167,8
Cum YTD sales 2014 732,298 1,563,95 2,479,22 3,389,43 4,406,96 5,518,05 6,584,12 7,696,14 8,906,69 10,040,2 11,265,6 12,068,4
% Change Cum YTD 2014 VS 2013 -5.35% -5.35% -5.35% -5.27% -5.22% -5.19% -3.73% -2.60% -1.68% -1.31% -0.99% -0.82%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
To
nn
es
Domestic Cement Sales: Cumulative 2014 vs 2013(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)
Cu
mu
liti
ve %
Ch
an
ge:
YT
D 2
012 v
s 2
011
ACTUAL
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
54
DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (TONNES) ENDED 2014 AT -0,82% COMPARED TO 2013
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: YTD FC 2015 VS 2014
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cum YTD sales: 2014 732,298 1,563,95 2,479,22 3,389,43 4,406,96 5,518,05 6,584,12 7,696,14 8,906,69 10,040,2 11,265,6 12,068,4
YTD Forecast 2015 846,511 1,807,87 2,865,89 3,829,43 4,926,34 6,044,08 7,144,91 8,261,30 9,400,69 10,582,0 11,765,0 12,599,9
% Change FC 2015 VS 2014 15.60% 15.60% 15.60% 12.98% 11.79% 9.53% 8.52% 7.34% 5.55% 5.40% 4.43% 4.40%
-6%
-1%
4%
9%
14%
19%
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
To
nn
es
Domestic Cement Sales: *YTD FC 2015 vs 2014(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings, Chart 2139)
Cu
mu
liti
ve %
Ch
an
ge:
YT
D 2
015 v
s 2
014
YTD FORECAST
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
55
LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (M3) ENDED 2013 AT + 6,38% COMPARED TO 2012.
55
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES: YTD FC 2014 VS 2013: M3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 Cum Y/Y Local Building 79,559 172,34 262,21 352,29 447,92 545,25 655,34 771,90 878,45 1,009, 1,127, 1,185,
2014 Cum Y/Y Local Building 93,078 199,060 299,608 403,134 504,088 613,310 735,240 845,355 962,921 1,084,4 1,210,5 1,296,0
% Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: 2014 vs 2013 16.99% 15.50% 14.26% 14.43% 12.54% 12.48% 12.19% 9.52% 9.62% 7.39% 7.36% 9.35%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Cu
bic
Metr
es
Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: Cum Y/Y 2014 vs 2013(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)
% C
han
ge C
um
Y/Y
Lo
cal
Bu
ild
ing
: 2014 v
s 2
013
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
56
LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (M3) ENDED 2014 AT + 9,35% COMPARED TO 2013.
56
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES: YTD FC 2015 VS 2014: M3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014 Cum Y/Y Local Building 93,078 199,060 299,608 403,134 504,088 613,310 735,240 845,355 962,921 1,084,43 1,210,56 1,296,00
2015 Cum Y/Y FC Local Building 97,517 210,347 324,145 440,072 540,406 675,311 810,947 920,084 1,038,8 1,163,6 1,291,7 1,367,0
% Change Cum Y/Y FC Local Building: 2015 vs 2014 4.77% 5.67% 8.19% 9.16% 7.20% 10.11% 10.30% 8.84% 7.88% 7.30% 6.71% 5.48%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Cu
bic
Metr
es
Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: Cum *YTD FC 2015 vs 2014(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Lumber Sales, Chart 2257)
% C
han
ge C
um
Y/Y
Lo
cal
Bu
ild
ing
: 2015 v
s 2
014
CUM YTD ACTUAL CUM YTD FORECAST
BMI
© BMI-BRSCU 57
In July 2007 Browder’s Hermitage Fund recognised an auction of debt from leveraged buy-out deals
that failed to draw enough bidders for what it was: a sign that the world had run out of the ability to
absorb new debt. (Ramo: 2009: 55)
Mortgage Advances MAY return to 2006 levels by 2020 (under the high road scenario) . . . But . . . the Banks need to REGAIN their appetite for Mortgage Loans?
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: TOTAL MORTGAGE ADV: 2002-2013 (CURRENT VALUE) THE SF SCENARIOS: 2014-2020 (CONSTANT 2013 VALUES)
238,1
47
253,5
99
328,6
56
346,6
30
367,1
32
373,1
35
402,0
45
450,5
07
487,3
38
238,1
47
253,5
99
328,6
56
330,1
98
333,2
17
322,0
05
330,8
53
354,1
92
365,4
39
441 410
208 488
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
R M
illi
on
s (C
urr
en
t a
nd
Co
nsta
nt
20
14
V
alu
es)
Total Mortgage Advances: 2002 - 2014 (Current Values)The Strategic Forum Scenarios: 2015-2020 (Constant 2014 Value)
(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Mortgage Dashboard; Scenarios for All Prop, Chart 639)
High Road New York Scenario: 2012-2020
Higher Middle Road London Scenario: 2012-2020
Lower Middle Road Sao Paolo Scenario: 2012-2020
Low Road Harari Scenario: 2012-2020
Sao Paolo Scenario:2012-2020
Lower Middle Road Sao Paolo Scenariois Current
Most likely future
R233 Billion decline in only 2 years!
Under the Upper Middle Road the 2007 level could be
reached by 2021.
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
58
85,3
84
89,7
99
85,5
18
91,4
21 111,0
35
132,4
09
144,8
86
156,8
69
161,1
84
158,8
55
141,4
64
131,8
55
126,5
56
115,2
41
117,9
92
127,6
88
135,3
61
140,1
47
147,1
01
155,4
81
166,2
65
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
R M
ILL
ION
S (
CO
NS
TA
NT
2014 V
AL
UE
S)
TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING*: 2000-2014 THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS: 2015-2020 (CONSTANT 2014 VALUE)
(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings; Chart 2841)
TOTAL BUILDINGS : 2000-2014: LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2015-2020
1984 PEAK LEVEL OF INVESTMENT
TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGH ROAD COLUMBUS SCENARIO
TOTAL BUILDINGS LOW ROAD CHALLENGER SCENARIO
TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGHER MIDDLE ROAD APOLLO SCENARIO
CURRENT MOST LIKELY SCENARIOBETWEEN LOWER MIDDLE AND LOW
ROAD SCENARIOS
High Road 10%
Upper Middle Road 20%
Lower Middle Road 40%
Low Road 30%
* Excluding Affordable Housing and Unrecorded Residential and Non Residential Additions and Alterations.
58
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: TOTAL INV IN BLDNG: 2000-2013 (CURRENT VALUE) THE SF SCENARIOS: 2014-2020 (CONSTANT 2013 VALUES)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
59
59
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: TOTAL INV IN CONSTR: 2000-2013 (CURRENT) THE SF SCENARIOS: 2014-2020 (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES)
41 3
45
45 4
01
57 5
83
63 8
57
68 2
51
80 2
13 113 3
82 1
64 3
59
195 2
32
180 5
53
185 9
80
181 1
61
202 5
15
230 8
11
226 1
95
237 5
05
255 3
17
275 7
43
300 2
84
316 1
99
y = 67161e0.0885x
R² = 0.9625
y = 47142e0.1061x
R² = 0.8993
y = 115116e0.0435x
R² = 0.9395
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
R M
ILL
ION
S (
CO
NS
TA
NT
2014 V
AL
UE
S)
INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: 2001-2014
THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS: 2015-2020(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart 69)
MOTORWAY SCENARIO: 2007-2015 HIGHWAY SCENARIO: 2007-2015FREEWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2015 BYWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2015Peak 1980 Level Expon. (MOTORWAY SCENARIO: 2007-2015)Expon. (FREEWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2015) Expon. (BYWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2020)
The currentMOST LIKELY FUTURE
is theFREEWAY SCENARIO
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
60
60
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: THE MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCT GROUPS BY VALUE: 2013
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Lower Middle Road Scenario 107,525 118,050 129,365 155,633 182,485 211,487 253,298 267,445 257,211 243,175 241,392 241,293 245,343 248,666 262,496 276,568 295,892 320,222 339,645
High Road Scenario 107,525 118,050 129,365 155,633 182,485 211,487 253,298 267,445 257,211 243,175 241,392 241,293 245,343 278,464 311,602 339,646 371,912 409,103 454,105
10
7,5
25
11
8,0
50
12
9,3
65
15
5,6
33
18
2,4
85
21
1,4
87
25
3,2
98
26
7,4
45
25
7,2
11
24
3,1
75
24
1,3
92
24
1,2
93
24
5,3
43
24
8,6
66
26
2,4
96
27
6,5
68
29
5,8
92
32
0,2
22
33
9,6
45
10
7,5
25
11
8,0
50
12
9,3
65
155,
633
18
2,4
85
211,
487 25
3,29
8
26
7,4
45
257,
211
24
3,1
75
24
1,3
92
24
1,2
93
24
5,3
43 27
8,46
4 311,
602
339,
646 37
1,9
12 40
9,1
03 45
4,10
5
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
R M
ILL
ION
S (
CO
NS
TA
NT
2014 V
AL
UE
S)
The Market for Building and Construction Materials: 2002-2014Lower Middle and High Road Scenarios: 2015-2020 (R Million) (Constant 2014 Values)
(Source: MFA; StatsSA; SARB; BMI-BRSCU Workings: Chart 2708)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
61
61
Average growth over the next 6 years looks MODERATE but RESPECTABLE . . .
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: % CHANGE IN INV IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2011-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2013 VALUES)
Mar-15 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AVE 2015-2020
MORTGAGE ADVANCES (VALUE) FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST
Mortgage Advances on Existing Buildings 7.24% 25.37% 9.69% 2.41% -0.69% 0.28% -3.70% 2.33% 6.62% 2.75% 1.26%
Mortgage Advances on Construction of New Buildings 10.22% 73.33% -16.12% 5.17% 4.87% 5.30% -1.35% 4.84% 9.20% 5.20% 4.68%
Mortgage Advances on Vacant Land -47.57% 56.06% 53.86% 53.04% 56.10% 50.22% 4.07% -0.44% 0.00% 13.00% 20.49%
Total Gross New Mortgage Loans and Re-advances 6.49% 29.59% 6.76% 3.27% 0.47% 0.91% -3.36% 2.75% 7.05% 3.18% 1.83%
Total Mortgage Loans Outstanding 1.72% 4.44% 4.70% 1.60% 0.47% 0.91% -3.36% 2.75% 7.05% 3.18% 1.83%
Mortgage Advances Weighted Average 2.70% 10.42% 6.48% 2.05% 0.61% 1.05% -3.33% 2.77% 7.07% 3.22% 1.90%
PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: GFCF
GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (VALUE) FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE FC
-1.13% 1.01% -7.71% 14.02% 6.90% 4.81% 2.42% 5.47% 6.86% 7.79% 5.71%
6.91% 4.30% -3.24% 7.04% 7.04% 7.11% 4.05% 4.57% 5.09% 6.09% 5.66%
2.89% 2.01% -5.37% 6.97% 6.98% 6.03% 3.29% 4.99% 5.91% 6.88% 5.68%
17.87% 18.81% 0.70% -0.35% -0.35% 4.90% 7.40% 7.90% 8.80% 5.20% 5.64%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Weighted Average 2.93% 9.89% -2.60% 4.55% 3.63% 5.51% 5.16% 6.32% 7.24% 6.12% 5.66%
PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: BUILDING PLANS PASSED
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST AVERAGE FC
4.94% 8.82% 6.36% 3.33% 3.02% 3.72% -3.38% 6.21% 12.67% 6.30% 4.76%
12.56% 17.29% 13.62% 6.36% 3.08% 3.78% -3.32% 6.27% 12.73% 6.36% 4.82%
23.18% -6.71% 2.17% 2.74% 2.77% 2.67% 3.87% 3.73% 3.60% 4.62% 3.54%
30.89% 0.23% 10.93% 7.62% 3.01% 2.90% 4.11% 3.96% 3.83% 4.85% 3.78%
10.70% 3.37% 5.00% 3.14% 2.94% 3.39% -1.10% 5.39% 9.72% 5.78% 4.35%
18.65% 11.04% 12.70% 6.77% 3.05% 3.49% -0.88% 5.48% 9.70% 5.87% 4.45%
Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (m2) 11.02% 3.63% 5.02% 3.14% 2.94% 3.39% -1.04% 5.40% 9.81% 5.78% 4.38%
Building Plans Passed Weighted Average (R) 27.76% 17.03% 19.10% 6.77% 3.05% 3.49% -0.87% 5.50% 9.85% 5.89% 4.48%
PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: BUILDINGS COMPLETED
FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020
FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST AVERAGE FC
5.87% -11.65% 10.87% 5.65% 2.67% 3.37% -3.70% 5.86% 12.30% 5.95% 4.41%
14.07% -0.23% 15.93% 8.56% 2.73% 3.43% -3.65% 5.92% 12.36% 6.00% 4.46%
13.07% -6.06% -15.54% -11.00% 2.53% 2.42% 3.62% 3.48% 3.35% 4.36% 3.29%
20.23% 3.69% -6.40% -7.57% 2.70% 2.60% 3.80% 3.66% 3.53% 4.55% 3.47%
8.10% -9.84% 2.12% 0.03% 2.62% 3.05% -1.25% 5.02% 9.20% 5.43% 4.01%
16.13% 1.13% 8.36% 2.83% 2.72% 3.43% -3.65% 5.92% 12.36% 6.00% 4.46%
Buildings Completed Weighted Average (m2) 8.15% -9.80% 2.04% 0.34% 2.62% 3.10% -1.19% 5.03% 9.28% 5.43% 4.05%
Buildings Completed Weighted Average (R) 16.17% 1.11% 8.38% 3.12% 2.72% 3.33% -2.29% 5.51% 10.83% 5.75% 4.31%
PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: CEMENT SALES
FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE FC
DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES (Tonnes) 5.26% -0.82% 15.60% 4.40% 3.47% 5.46% 4.68% 6.97% 8.86% 5.80% 5.88%
PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES
2013 vs 2012 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE FC
6.38% 9.35% 8.84% 5.48% 2.67% 3.37% -3.70% 5.86% 12.30% 5.95% 4.41%
PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST BY INDICATOR
FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE FC
7.70% 0.59% 7.87% 3.34% 2.93% 3.83% -0.31% 5.82% 10.06% 5.74% 4.68%
12.39% 12.29% 7.32% 7.21% 2.50% 3.34% -0.33% 5.02% 8.75% 5.24% 4.09%
TOTAL INV IN BUILDING -5.77% -9.74% -10.80% 4.88% 5.70% 6.24% 2.82% 5.73% 7.36% 7.05% 5.82%
TOTAL INV IN CONSTRUCTION 11.81% 13.97% 13.97% 13.98% -0.35% 4.90% 7.40% 7.90% 8.80% 5.20% 5.64%
TOTAL INV IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION -0.04% 1.68% 1.68% 0.88% 1.93% 5.51% 5.26% 6.95% 8.24% 5.98% 5.65%
2015 YTD FC vs
2014 YTD Act
2015 YTD FC vs
2014 YTD Act
2015 YTD FC vs
2014 YTD Act
OVERALL AVERAGE (m2)
OVERALL AVERAGE (R)
Non Residential BPP (R)
Total BPP (m2)
Total BPP (R)
Jul-15
BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC) (m2 and value)
May-15
GFCF Total Building
BUILDING PLANS PASSED (BPP) (m2 and value)
Residential BPP (m2)
Total BC (m2)
Total BC (R)
Non Residential BPP (m2)
2014 vs 2013
2014 vs 2013
Mar-15
Residential BPP (R)
2014 vs 2013
2015 YTD Act vs
2014 YTD Act
2013 vs 2012
GFCF Residential
GFCF Non Residential
Jul-15
Mar-15
2013 vs 2012
2015 YTD Act vs
2014 YTD Act
2014 vs 2013
2015 YTD Act vs
2014 YTD Act
LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES (m3)
Aug-15
Residential BC (m2)
2015 YTD Act vs
2014 YTD Act
Non Residential BC (m2)
Non Residential BC (R)
GFCF Construction
PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST: MORTGAGE ADVANCES
Residential BC (R)
2015 YTD Act vs
2014 YTD Act
2015 YTD Act vs
2014 YTD Act
PROGNOSIS: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST BY SECTOR
2013 vs 2012
2013 vs 2012
2013 vs 2012 2014 vs 2013
2014 vs 2013
2015 YTD Act vs
2014 YTD Act
2014 vs 2013
2015 YTD FC vs
2014 YTD Act
2015 YTD FC vs
2014 YTD Act
2015 YTD FC vs
2014 YTD Act
2013 vs 2012
2015 YTD FC vs
2014 YTD Act
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
62
62
Average growth over the next 6 years looks MODERATE, but RESPECTABLE . . .
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: % CHANGE IN INV IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2012-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES)
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
FOR
ECA
ST
FOR
ECA
ST
FOR
ECA
ST
FOR
ECA
ST
FOR
ECA
ST
FOR
ECA
ST
FOR
ECA
ST
FOR
ECA
ST
2013 vs 2012 2014 vs 2013 2015 YTD Actvs 2014 YTD
Act
2015 YTD FCvs 2014 YTD
Act
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AVE 2015-2020
AVE YTD FC2015 - 2020
Year on Year percentage change: 2012 - 2020Investment in Buiding and Construction, Average m2 and Value
(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Database, Chart 1)
TOTAL INV IN BUILDING TOTAL INV IN CONSTRUCTION OVERALL AVERAGE (m2) OVERALL AVERAGE (R)
*YTD ACTUAL (* MAY) FORECAST 2015 - 2020
After a poor start for the first quarter of 2015, we are back on-track for average
YTD Forecast growth between 5% - 8% over the period 2015 - 2020
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
63 © BMI-BRSCU
63
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2014-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES)
2011 2012* 2013 2014 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE
-2.25% -3.24% 7.24% -6.30% 8.56% 3.33% -3.74% 5.82% 12.25% 5.90% 5.35%
-7.93% 9.89% -20.86% -2.53% -1.31% 8.19% 9.27% 9.27% 5.69% 8.48% 6.60%
-5.67% 4.48% -10.14% -4.25% 3.09% 5.91% 3.32% 3.32% 5.74% 7.32% 4.78%
-11.41% 9.90% 20.23% -18.69% -7.57% 2.75% 3.95% 3.95% 3.81% 4.70% 1.93%
-14.04% -11.54% -8.27% 8.41% 13.30% 8.63% 4.08% 4.08% 4.82% 6.54% 6.91%
1.20% -5.97% 0.38% -1.45% 7.04% 7.11% 4.05% 4.05% 4.57% 6.09% 5.48%
-16.57% 3.04% -18.48% -30.60% 4.93% 5.52% -0.94% -0.94% 7.83% 7.90% 4.05%
-7.45% 0.84% -9.74% -10.80% 4.88% 6.25% 2.65% 2.65% 5.75% 7.02% 4.87%
0.64% -1.98% 11.81% 13.97% -0.35% 4.90% 7.40% 7.40% 7.90% 5.20% 5.41%
-3.92% -0.45% -0.04% 0.88% 1.93% 5.51% 5.26% 5.26% 6.95% 5.98% 5.15%
-6.74% 0.50% -2.79% -5.14% 3.45% 5.81% 3.53% 4.48% 6.53% 6.51% 5.05%
* The INTERACTIVE Forecast is based on the moving YTD Forecast using the same growth rates, but from the moving totals. Source: BMI-BRSCU
Total Unrecorded Additions & Alterations
Total Investment In Building
Total Investment In Construction
Total Investment In Building and Construction
AVERAGE
Sector and Segment
Total Public Non-Residential
Total Non Residential
Total Private Residential
Total Public Residential
Total Residential (Including AH)
Total Private Non-Residential
Y/Y % CHANGE IN INVESTMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2012-2020 (R*MILLION) (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES) (*INTERACTIVE FORECAST)
LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SCENARIO: 2015-2020Y/Y Growth
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
64
64
Flats and Townhouses will increase share marginally. . .
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: % CHANGE IN INV IN RES BUILDING BY SEGMENT: 2010-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2013 VALUES)
6.46% 7.85% 7.81% 6.78% 8.12% 7.99% 7.86% 7.73% 7.60% 7.46% 7.33%
43.38%45.72%
48.69%46.59%
50.08% 49.40% 48.72% 48.04% 47.36% 46.68% 46.00%
19.87%16.57%
19.54%21.09%
22.28% 22.55% 22.81% 23.07% 23.33% 23.59% 23.86%
4.26% 2.95%
1.02% 1.44%
1.53% 1.75% 1.97% 2.19% 2.41% 2.63% 2.86%
26.02% 26.91%22.94% 24.09%
17.99% 18.32% 18.65% 18.97% 19.30% 19.63% 19.96%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT BY SEGMENT: 2010-2014 (PERCENTAGE)LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2015-2020
(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)
Additions & alterations Other (Incl. hotels & casinos) Townhouses & Flats
Dwelling-houses > 80 m2 Dwelling-houses < 80 m2
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
65
65
Additions and Alterations and Industrial and Warehousing will increase share marginally. . .
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: % CH IN INV IN NON RES BLDNG BY SEGMENT: 2010-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES)
23.46%17.19%
20.98%
31.37%25.04% 24.65% 24.25% 23.86% 23.46% 23.07% 22.67%
21.64%
24.26% 18.55%
17.39%
21.24% 21.40% 21.57% 21.73% 21.89% 22.06% 22.22%
23.87%
22.95%31.35%
23.13% 29.47% 28.78% 28.08% 27.38% 26.69% 25.99% 25.30%
5.99%9.27%
7.05% 6.14%
6.93% 6.91% 6.89% 6.87% 6.85% 6.82% 6.80%
25.03% 26.32%22.06% 21.97%
17.31% 18.26% 19.21% 20.16% 21.11% 22.06% 23.01%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
PRIVATE NON RES INVESTMENT BY SEGMENT: 2010-2014 (PERCENTAGE)LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2015-2020(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)
Additions & Alterations Other Industrial & warehouse Shops Offices
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
66
Additions and Alterations and Shopping will increase share marginally. . .
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: % CHANGE IN INV IN NON RES BLDNG BY SEGMENT: 2010-2020 (R MILLION) (2013 VALUES)
2,767
17,062
7,592
520
6,130
20,993
569
33
20,824
76,490
4,694
3,981
5,524
1,300
3,245
10,951
3,335
29,466
62,495
35,652
3,457
178,094
0
20
,00
0
40
,00
0
60
,00
0
80
,00
0
10
0,0
00
12
0,0
00
14
0,0
00
16
0,0
00
18
0,0
00
20
0,0
00
Dwelling-houses < 80 m2
Dwelling-houses > 80 m2
Townhouses & Flats
Other (Incl. hotels & casinos)
Additions & alterations
PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL
Affordable Housing
General Government
Public corporations
Private Business Enterprises
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL
PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL
Offices
Shops
Industrial & warehouse
Other
Additions & Alterations
PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL
General Government
Public Corporations
Private Business Enterprises
TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL
Unrecorded Res Add's and Alt's
Unrecorded Non Res Add's and Alt's
GRAND TOTAL BUILDING
INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND BY SEGMENT: 2014: R MILLION(TOTAL = R178 094 MILLION)
(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Building Industry Dashboard, Inv in Bulding 2002-2020 (R), Chart 2756)
Private Residential BC = R34,071 Billion andMortgage Advances on New Buildings = R36,210 Billion.
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
67 © BMI-BRSCU
67
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2014-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES)
2011 2012* 2013 2014 YTD FC 2015 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC 2017 FC 2018 FC 2019 FC 2020 AVERAGE
- Dwelling-houses < 80 m2 18.81% -3.80% -6.87% 12.23% 2.22% 1.06% 1.73% -5.26% 4.12% 10.41% 4.14% 2.70%
- Dwelling-houses > 80 m2 3.01% 3.06% 2.61% 0.71% 3.23% 1.33% 2.01% -4.99% 4.42% 10.74% 4.46% 2.99%
- Townhouses & Flats -18.52% 14.11% 15.79% -1.01% 1.50% 3.93% 4.63% -2.54% 7.12% 13.62% 7.18% 5.66%
- Other (Incl. hotels & casinos) -32.20% -66.46% 51.23% -0.88% 3.34% 17.65% 16.55% 7.20% 16.64% 22.68% 14.92% 15.94%
- Additions & alterations 1.08% -17.52% 12.64% -30.04% 1.77% 4.60% 5.28% -1.96% 7.75% 14.26% 7.77% 6.28%
TOTAL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL BC -2.25% -3.24% 7.24% -6.30% 2.50% 2.73% 3.37% -3.70% 5.86% 12.29% 5.94% 4.41%
PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL
- Affordable Housing -22.34% 2.50% -17.81% 0.07% -7.00% -7.00% 9.24% 5.92% 6.50% 5.50% 6.00% 4.36%
- General Government 100.00% 203.39% -25.28% -15.70% 510.97% 510.97% 5.00% 3.00% 5.50% 6.50% 8.00% 89.83%
- Public corporations 88.57% 53.03% 41.58% -81.82% 87.66% 87.66% 5.00% 3.00% 5.50% 6.50% 8.00% 19.28%
- Private Business Enterprises 4.93% -2.77% -23.74% -3.98% 2.86% 2.49% 7.58% 13.48% 4.94% -1.41% 11.08% 6.36%
TOTAL PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL BC -7.93% 9.89% -20.86% -2.53% 4.86% 4.68% 8.10% 9.32% 5.65% 2.16% 8.57% 6.41%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL (Incl AH) BC -5.67% 4.48% -10.14% -4.25% 3.81% 3.81% 6.02% 3.73% 5.73% 6.20% 7.46% 5.49%
TOTAL GFCF RES (Excludes AH) BC 45.50% -2.00% -7.06% -5.79% -5.79% 7.90% 4.97% 2.99% 5.47% 6.44% 7.98% 5.96%
PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL BC
- Offices -35.09% 34.13% 79.80% -35.09% 3.37% 1.08% 0.95% 2.11% 1.94% 1.79% 2.75% 1.77%
- Shops -0.69% -15.96% 12.67% -0.68% -1.20% 3.50% 3.38% 4.59% 4.44% 4.30% 5.32% 4.25%
- Industrial & warehouse -14.81% 50.13% -11.32% 3.62% -0.24% 0.28% 0.12% 1.22% 1.02% 0.83% 1.75% 0.87%
- Other 37.07% -16.48% 4.74% -8.20% -3.84% 2.38% 2.27% 3.46% 3.32% 3.19% 4.21% 3.14%
- Additions & Alterations -6.84% -7.89% 19.72% -35.94% 2.79% 8.34% 7.93% 8.93% 8.54% 8.19% 9.05% 8.50%
TOTAL PRIVATE NON-RES BC -11.41% 9.90% 20.23% -18.69% 0.73% 2.70% 2.53% 3.73% 3.60% 3.47% 4.48% 3.42%
PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL BC
- General Government -39.01% -25.04% 21.69% -0.39% 59.55% 59.55% 6.90% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 6.00% 14.32%
- Public Corporations 3.41% 33.16% -8.65% -44.89% 32.29% 32.29% 6.90% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 6.00% 9.78%
- Private Business Enterprises -1.73% -13.36% -17.73% 26.41% -8.23% -9.48% 10.01% 4.14% 5.06% 5.97% 6.94% 3.77%
TOTAL PUBLIC NON-RES BC -14.04% -11.54% -8.27% 8.41% 11.83% 10.98% 8.62% 4.08% 4.82% 5.55% 6.53% 6.76%
TOTAL GFCF NON RES BC 1.20% -5.97% 0.38% -1.44% 8.50% 8.50% 6.92% 3.98% 4.49% 5.00% 6.00% 5.82%
TOTAL GFCF RES AND NON RES BC 1.19% -4.02% -3.34% -3.53% 8.22% 8.22% 6.01% 3.52% 4.94% 5.67% 6.92% 5.88%
- Unrecorded Res Additions and Alterations -17.25% 3.90% -21.14% -30.04% 4.60% 4.60% 5.28% -1.96% 7.75% 14.26% 7.77% 6.28%
- Unrecorded Non Res Additions and Alterations -6.84% -7.89% 19.72% -35.94% 8.34% 8.34% 7.93% 8.93% 8.54% 8.19% 9.05% 8.50%
TOTAL UNREC ADD'S & ALT'S BC -16.57% 3.04% -18.48% -30.60% 4.93% 4.93% 5.52% -0.94% 7.83% 13.64% 7.90% 6.48%
TOTAL INV IN BUILDINGS -7.45% 0.84% -9.74% -10.80% 5.70% 5.70% 6.24% 2.81% 5.71% 7.34% 7.04% 5.81%
BC as % of Total Inv in Bldng 23.93% 24.00% 29.76% 29.66% 28.58% 28.82% 27.73% 26.67% 26.50% 26.94% 26.53% 27.20%
Priv Sector as % of Total Inv in Bldng 54.51% 55.25% 57.99% 51.62% 50.38% 50.62% 49.38% 47.54% 47.78% 49.46% 49.24% 49.00%
CONSTRUCTION 0.00%
- General government 10.59% 5.00% -1.70% 24.83% 2.39% 2.39% 9.50% 11.92% 12.26% 13.04% 9.15% 9.71%
- Public corporations -19.83% 4.00% -1.92% 0.88% -7.33% -7.33% -1.04% 0.94% 0.98% 1.33% -2.57% -1.29%
- Private Business Enterprises -19.05% 6.25% 92.26% 21.46% -0.59% -0.59% 6.49% 9.00% 9.49% 10.38% 6.71% 6.92%
TOTAL INV IN CONSTR 0.64% -1.98% 11.81% 13.98% -2.00% -2.00% 5.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.90% 5.30% 5.45%
TOTAL INV IN BLDNG AND CONSTR -3.92% -0.45% -0.04% 1.68% 1.35% 1.35% 5.56% 5.36% 6.98% 8.21% 6.06% 5.59%
TOTAL GFCF CONSTRUCTION 0.64% -1.98% 11.81% 13.98% -2.00% -2.00% 5.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.90% 5.85% 5.54%
TOTAL GFCF BLDNG AND CONSTR 3.93% -9.10% 9.53% 1.68% 7.38% 1.46% -10.03% 6.06% 6.92% 7.78% 0.00% 2.03%
Source: BMI-BRSCU
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL BC
PROGNOSIS: INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: YTD ACTUAL VS FORECAST BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT (CONSTANT 2014 VALUES)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
68 © BMI-BRSCU
68
2015-2020 Average
R*Million R*Million % %
17,468 2,495 1.51% 0.63%
108,788 15,541 9.42% 3.93%
53,103 7,586 4.60% 1.92%
5,331 762 0.46% 0.19%
43,840 6,263 3.80% 1.58%
139,779 19,968 12.10% 5.05%
23,647 3,378 2.05% 0.85%
419 60 0.04% 0.02%
14,818 2,117 1.28% 0.54%407,192 58,170 35.26% 14.72%
29,703 4,243 2.57% 1.07%
27,450 3,921 2.38% 0.99%
33,906 4,844 2.94% 1.23%
8,619 1,231 0.75% 0.31%
26,072 3,725 2.26% 0.94%
119,780 17,111 10.37% 4.33%
30,245 4,321 2.62% 1.09%
189,077 27,011
464,851 66,407 40.25% 16.81%
254,968 36,424 22.08% 9.22%
27,783 3,969 2.41% 1.00%
1,154,794 164,971 100.00% 41.75%
684,411 114,06842.48% 24.74%
476,194 79,36629.55% 17.22%
450,637 75,106 27.97% 16.29%
1,611,242 268,540 100.00% 58.25%
2,766,036 461,006 100.00%
1,383,018
2,305,030
4,610,060
©BMI-BRSCU
Unrecorded Res Add's and Alt's
Unrecorded Non Res Add's and Alt's
GRAND TOTAL
CONSTRUCTION
General Government
Public Corporations
Private Business Enterprises
TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL
Shops
Industrial & warehouse
Other
Additions & Alterations
PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL
Public authorities.
Private Business EnterprisesTOTAL RESIDENTIAL
PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL
Offices
Additions & alterations
INVESTMENT IN BUILDINGS, 2002 TO 2014 (Calendar Years): RAND MILLIONS (At Constant 2013 Prices). Basic data: SARB, Stats SA: LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2015-2020 (Constant 2014 Prices)
General government
Public corporations
Private business enterprises
TOTAL CONSTRUCTION
TOTAL BLDNG AND CONSTR
3 years (2015-2017)
5 years (2015-2020)
8 years (2015-2023)
SECTOR AND SEGMENT
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL
Dwelling-houses < 80 m2
Dwelling-houses > 80 m2
Townhouses & Flats
Other (Incl. hotels & casinos)
Affordable Housing
General Government
PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL
Investment in Building
and Construction over
the next 3 years will be
some R1,4 Trillion . . .
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2014-2020 (R MILLION) (CONSTANT 2013 VALUES)
© BMI-BRSCU
BMI
69 © BMI-BRSCU
THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD MORTGAGE ADVANCES (DEC 2014), GFCF RES, NON-RES AND CONSTRUCTION (DEC 2014), BPP AND BC (MARCH
2015), CEMENT (DEC 2014) AND LUMBER SALES (APRIL 2015).
Year To Date 2015 (July 2015)
Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis
69
BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCH
STRATEGY CONSULTING
UNIT cc
Reg. No. 2002/105109/23
•BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCH
STRATEGY CONSULTING
UNIT cc
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCH
STRATEGY CONSULTING
UNIT cc
Reg. No. 2002/105109/23
•BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCH
STRATEGY CONSULTING
UNIT cc
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•BMI
•
Our Vision
Building and construction is
an engine for growth and
wealth creation and property
is a preferred investment.
Our Mission
Developing competitive
Industry foresight and
strategic leadership as a
way of business life.
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM
A place of assembly for strategic conversations
THE BMI-BRSCU STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za