new base 545 special 22 february 2015

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NewBase 22 February 2015 - Issue No. 545 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

Russia Gets Second Junk Rating From Moody’s on Ukraine, Oil By: Bloomberg- Boris KorbyOlga Tanas

Russia’s credit rating was cut to below investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service, which

joined Standard & Poor’s in ranking the country’s debt as junk, citing the conflict in Ukraine and

plunging oil prices.

The rating company downgraded Russia one step to Ba1, the highest non-investment level and in line with countries including Hungary and Portugal. Moody’s has a negative rating outlook on the country, according to a report released Friday. Standard & Poor’s decision cut the country to speculative grade in January.

“The existing and potential future international sanctions,

the erosion of the country’s foreign exchange buffers and persistently lower oil prices plus high and rising inflation will take a negative toll on incomes as well as business and consumer confidence,” Moody’s said in the report. “While the fall in the oil price and the exchange rate have reversed somewhat since the start of the year, the impact on inflation, confidence and growth is

likely to be sustained.”

The world’s biggest energy exporter is on the brink of a recession after crude fell to the lowest since 2009 and the U.S. and its allies imposed sanctions following President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in March. The penalties have locked Russian corporate borrowers out of international debt markets and curbed investor appetite for the ruble, stocks and bonds.

‘Forced Selling’

Downgrades to junk from at least two rating




companies may force money managers whose investment guidelines prohibit them from holding debt rated below investment grade to sell as much as $5.8 billion of Russian dollar and local bonds, according to a January report from JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“Most bond funds, which have rules against investing in non-investment-grade securities, will have to sell bonds regardless of whether they want to do that or not”, Slava Smolyaninov, a strategist at UralSib Capital in Moscow, said by phone Saturday. “Investors will re-evaluate Russia and regard it as more risky. As a result, risk premiums will be higher.”

Non-residents held 877 billion rubles ($14.1 billion) of Russia’s local-currency bonds known as OFZs as of Dec. 1, or 24.2 percent of the total, according to the latest figures available from the central bank. That’s down from a peak of 28.1 percent on May 1, 2013, though up from just 3.7 percent at the start of 2012.

‘Beyond Reason’

The decision by Moody’s ignores information provided by Russia’s finance ministry about the economy as well as the country’s fiscal and financial policies, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in an e-mailed statement after the report.

“The decision by Moody’s isn’t just negative beyond all reason, but it’s based on an extremely pessimistic outlook,” Siluanov said. “The agency was guided primarily by political factors when deciding to cut the rating.”

Moody’s estimates capital outflow from Russia will reach $400 billion in 2015-2016, while the economy will shrink 8.5 percent during that period, Siluanov said. The figures weren’t included in the rating company’s statement.

Russia’s Economy Ministry predicts gross domestic product will contract 3 percent with capital outflow at $115 billion this year, according to its forecast submitted to the government this month. GDP fell 1.5 percent in January from a year earlier, according to the ministry’s preliminary estimates.




Standard & Poor’s confirms Abu Dhabi’s credit rating at AA The National + NewBase

The Standard & Poor’s credit rating agency has reaffirmed Abu Dhabi’s rating, saying the emirate was in a good financial position to weather lower oil prices despite its relatively undiversified economy.

The long-term sovereign debt rating was affirmed at AA, with short-term debt getting the top A1+ rating, as S&P said the outlook for the emirate remained stable.

The assessment reaffirmed the preliminary rating issued this month when S&P reviewed the whole Arabian Gulf region in light of the sharp fall in oil prices in recent months.

The full report by the agency concluded: “The ratings on Abu Dhabi are supported by its strong fiscal and external positions, which afford it fiscal policy flexibility,” adding “the exceptional strength of its net asset positions also provides a buffer to counter the negative effect of oil price swings on economic growth and government revenue, as well as on the external account”.

One of the constraints on Abu Dhabi’s economy is a lack of economic diversity, where the GDP (a broad measure of economic activity) is 55 per cent dependent on oil, and 90 per cent of government revenue is derived from the hydrocarbons sector.

Also, a lack of development of its government institutions, lack of flexibility in monetary policy (with the dirham pegged to the US dollar), and an underdeveloped local bond market were cited by S&P as keeping the emirate from getting the highest long-term sovereign debt rating.

S&P also said its rating view was limited by a lack of transparency in Abu Dhabi’s finances and data about the economy.

The agency said that for this reason it would be changing its assumption about transfers to the government from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the main sovereign wealth fund, and would be revising down its estimate of the government surplus from 10 per cent to 6 per cent of GDP for the 2010 to 2014 period.

Including dividends from the state oil company Adnoc, S&P said it now forecasts the government surplus will average about 2 per cent in the three years to 2018.

The government’s overall current spending, along with aid payments and federal contribution, will decline, but development spending will double this year to 10 per cent of total spending to support economic growth, S&P forecasts.

The agency based its outlook on an assumed average Brent oil price of $55 per barrel this year and $70 in the three years to 2018.




Iraq to boost southern oil storage to 15m barrels Reuters + NewBase

Iraq plans to increase its southern oil storage capacity to 15 million barrels by the end of 2015, to help cope with export bottlenecks caused by bad weather and to absorb rising production, a senior official said.

Speaking at the opening of three new oil storage tanks near the southern city of Basra, deputy oil minister Fayadh Al-Nema said the new facility will add more than one million barrels of capacity to the existing 9.5 million. "Today we have managed to add more than one million barrels and boost oil storage capacity up to 10.5 million barrels. Another four to five million barrels capacity will be added by the end of this year," Fayadh Al-Nema told reporters. Nema said the storage capacity increase will help Iraq to absorb expected rising oil production from the southern oilfields and also avoid export halts during rough weather. "Production is rising steadily from the southern oilfields and we need more infrastructure to deal with extra crude volumes," Nema said. Export infrastructure, rather than production, is the main hurdle to the Opec member keeping exports steady. The southern oilfields produce the bulk of Iraq's oil and the terminals are its main outlet to world markets. Iraq's oil exports fell to 2.535 million barrels per day (bpd) in January from a high of 2.94 million bpd in December due to rough weather.

The Al Basrah Oil Terminal stretches over half a mile from the south platform to the north platform.

The terminal, 30 miles off the Iraqi coast in the Persian Gulf, can host four tankers at a time and

pumps more than 1.5 million barrels a day.




Qatar Consortium wins Doha Metro deal The Peninsula + NewBase

A five-member consortium consisting of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Corporation, Hitachi Ltd, The Kinki Sharyo Co and Thales received a Letter of Conditional Acceptance from the Qatar Railways Company (Qatar Rail) for a systems package for the Doha Metro, on Friday.

The newly accepted package calls for turnkey construction of a fully automated driverless metro system. Included are 75 sets of three-car trains, platform screen doors, tracks, a railway yard, and systems for signalling, power distribution, telecommunications and tunnel ventilation. The package is also expected to include maximum 20-year maintenance services for the metro system after its completion, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, the leader of the consortium, announced in Japan.




Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will supply the power distribution system, platform screen doors, tracks and tunnel ventilation work, and will also undertake overall project management and system integration. Mitsubishi Corporation and Kinki Sharyo will jointly provide the railway cars. Thales will supply the advanced Communications Based Train Control (CBTC) signalling, telecommunications and security, integrated operational control centre and automatic fare collection systems. Hitachi will perform some project management duties and also handle facilities maintenance, including the supply of special maintenance vehicles that comprehensively inspect the safety of infrastructure such as railway tracks and electric train lines. “The Doha Metro ongoing works are being done according to our timeline that we set at the beginning of the project,” Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ Japanese corporate website quoted Qatar Rail’s CEO Saad Ahmed Al Muhannadi as saying. “In 2013 and 2014, we signed many agreements that reached a remarkable value promising to deliver the best standards of metro railway in the near future. Today, with the five-member Japan consortium led by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, we look forward to add more value to our project knowing the international expertise of the Japanese fellows and provide Doha with a fully secure and automated driverless metro system.” The Doha Metro will run through the city of Doha and will consist of four lines in two phases — Red, Green, Gold and Blue — covering a total distance of 241km with 106 stations, of which 123km will be constructed underground. The new metro system will connect the main areas of Doha, including the Hamad International Airport, the Old City, and newly developing inner city areas such as West Bay and Lusail. Phase 1 of the network will be launched in 2019. After submitting its bid in March 2014, the consortium underwent 11 months of detailed negotiations. The Letter of Conditional acceptance was received after convincingly demonstrating to the client the consortium’s high technical capabilities and robust track record in the construction of metro systems, the consortium leader said.




Algeria: Gazprom confirms productivity of hydrocarbon deposits for El Assel area

Gazprom on Thursday hosted a working meeting with Sonatrach. The parties looked at the current status of and the outlook for the cooperation in the gas sector, among other things, as part of the joint development of hydrocarbon fields in Algeria.

It was highlighted that starting from 2010, a great scope of 2D and 3D seismic survey operations had been conducted and six exploratory wells had been drilled as part of the project for exploration and development of the El Assel oil- and gas-bearing area in Algeria. The well survey has proven the availability of hydrocarbons pay zones.

At present, the delineation of deposits is underway at the field. The meeting also considered joint actions within new oil and gas projects, while giving particular attention to potential LNG supplies.

Background

Algeria's Sonatrach is the largest oil and gas company in Africa. It is engaged in exploration, transportation and marketing of oil and natural gas as well as controls most of gas production and wholesale trade.

The El Assel licensed area is located in the Berkine Basin, 500 kms south of Algeria's capital city Algiers and 150 kms away from the oil production center – town of Hassi Messaoud.Gazprom is implementing the El Assel project in partnership with Algeria's Sonatrach with the following shareholding structure: 49 and 51 per cent respectively. Gazprom EP International (Company's wholly-owned subsidiary) is the project's operator.




US: ExxonMobil filed Alaska LNG Project resources reports

$45 billion Alaska LNG FERC approval in progress The major companies ExxonMobil from USA, BP from UK, Conoco Phillips from USA and the midstream specialist TranCanada submitted the first drafts of so called Resources Reports as part of the environmental and project designed reports to be filed in for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approval required for their giant Alaska liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project from USA. In a context where most of the international oil companies (IOCs), and especially BP and Conoco Phillips, are assessing the profitability of their projects, the initiative of the Alaska LNG project sponsors to go ahead in filing in these Resources Reports first drafts reflect their confidence in the sustainability of the natural gas market in the long term.

This decision shows how much such giant project is first driven by geo-strategic parameters before daily oil and gas prices. As many other LNG export projects in USA, the main targeted market is Asia and especially northeast Asia. So far these US-based projects were in competition to supply Asia markets with Australia, East Africa and Russia with some critical concentration for the renewal of long term supply agreement Around 2018 and 2019. In this perspective all these countries were racing to ramp up multi-billion US dollars

projects to be able to deliver on time. After the hard experiences made in Australia on current projects, this continent-country put itself off-track of the competition for the time being. East African countries such as Mozambique and Tanzania are struggling with local content regulations and political issues to share revenues that have not collected yet, thus delaying all projects developments in this very promising region. Russia is stocked by its foreign policy and consecutive financial sanctions with ExxonMobil and BP being among the first foreign companies to suffer from this situation. Even if a major agreement was signed between Gazprom and Sinopec to return pipelines to east and supply China with Russian gas, this giant project will also take time and will never be sufficient to meet Asia demand opening doors to ExxonMobil, BP, ConocoPhillips and TranCanada to step in with their Alaska LNG project.




ExxonMobil increases Alaska LNG project capacity , herefore the last twelve months have in fact removed some of the major rock blocks for ExxonMobil, BP, Conoco Phillips and TranCanada on their road to develop their Alaska LNG project. Estimated to require between $45 and $65 billion capital expenditure, this amount may look provocative in the actual context of restrictions, but if we compare the Alaska LNG project investment with the sum of the LNG projects capital expenditure which have been frozen or postponed for the reasons mentioned above, it appears very reasonable in addition with a minimum of risks.

To be supplied from the Alaska North Slope gas fields operated by ExxonMobil, BP and Conoco Phillips, the Alaska LNG project includes a 1200 kilometers pipeline to transport the natural gas to the selected site of Nikiski in the Cook inlet, 100 kilometers southwest of Anchorage. With a capacity of 3.5 billion cubic feet per day (cf/d) of gas, this pipeline will supply the Nikiski LNG plant with a capacity of2.5 billion cf/d considering the gas to be consumed in the transportation and liquefaction process. At the current pre-front end engineering and design (pre-FEED) stage, the Alaska LNG plant capacity has been revised upward from the original 15 million tonne per year (t/y) to 20 million t/y. With a pre-FEED to be completed by 2016, ExxonMobil, BP, ConocoPhillips and TranCanada are targeting the ship the first gas from Alaska LNG project to Asia by 2021.




US oil workers’ union expands biggest plant strike since 1980 Bloomberg + NewBase

The United Steelworkers, which represents 30,000 US oil workers, called on four more plants to join the biggest strike since 1980 as talks with Royal Dutch Shell, negotiating a labour contract for oil companies, dragged on. The USW, with members at more than 200 refineries, fuel terminals, pipelines and chemical plants across the US, asked workers at Motiva Enterprises’ plants in Texas and Louisiana to join a nationwide walkout. The work stoppage began on February 1 with workers leaving nine plants from California to Texas, and expanded to two BP refineries in the Midwest a week later. The union has rejected seven contract offers from Shell, which is representing companies including Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp.

An agreement would end a strike at US plants that account for almost 20% of the country’s refining capacity. It’s the first national walkout of US oil workers since 1980, when a work stoppage lasted three months. The USW represents workers at plants that together account for 64% of US fuel output. “The industry’s refusal to meaningfully address safety issues through good faith bargaining gave us no other option but to expand our work stoppage,” said USW International President Leo W Gerard in a statement. The USW has been asking for tougher measures to prevent fatigue and to keep union workers rather than contract employees on the job, statements posted on the group’s website show. The union said on Thursday that Shell’s seventh offer failed to address safety concerns “in any sort of meaningful or enforceable way” and instructed members to prepare to join the strike “if called upon.” The union previously called strikes at: Tesoro Corp’s plants in Martinez and Carson, California, and Anacortes, Washington; Marathon Petroleum Corp’s Catlettsburg complex in Kentucky and Galveston Bay site in Texas; Shell’s Deer Park complex; LyondellBasell Industries NV’s Houston facility; and BP’s Whiting and Toledo refineries in the Midwest. Tesoro said earlier this month that its plants could run for a “very long period” during the walkout. The San Antonio- based refiner, which owns the most capacity in the western US, halted all fuel production at its Northern California refinery after workers walked out. United Steelworkers members operate refinery units, perform maintenance and work in labs at the plants. The USW and Shell began negotiations on January 21 amid the biggest collapse in oil prices since 2008, driven largely by surging output from US shale formations that cut oil prices by 49% in the second half of 2014.




Oil Price Drop Special Coverage

Oil Falls Sharply After US Crude Inventories Rise

Brent crude oil prices slipped below $59 a barrel on Thursday after another big weekly build in U.S. crude inventories and a possible rise in Saudi output stoked worries about oversupply.

U.S. crude stocks rose by 14.3 million barrels last week, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed after Wednesday’s settlement, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 3.2 million barrels.

If U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data due at 1600 GMT confirms the large build, it would be the biggest weekly addition in barrels since such data became available in 1982. The API and EIA reports are a day late this week because of a U.S. holiday on Monday.

At 1112 GMT, benchmark Brent crude futures for April were down $1.52 at $59.01 a barrel, after touching an intraday low of $58.46 earlier in the session, extending declines from Tuesday’s two-month high of $63.

U.S. crude for March delivery, which expires on Friday, was down $2.10 at $50.04 a barrel after dipping as low as $49.73. Trading was quiet in Asian hours as markets in China and other nations were closed for the Lunar New Year holidays.




“The inventories were the trigger for the sharp correction lower,” Carsten Fritsch, an oil analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said. “The focus is again back on the oversupply – the big question is for how long?”

The market has tended to retreat after swelling U.S. crude inventories, but then rally after falling U.S. rig-count numbers, which come out every Friday. “A big build of seven to nine million barrels would be enough to push prices lower,” Fritsch said, looking ahead to the EIA data. “But tomorrow we could see a recovery in expectation of another sharp drop in the rig count.”

At the same time, production from the world’s biggest exporter Saudi Arabia may be increasing to near 10 million barrels per day, consultancy PIRA said on Wednesday. The estimate suggests the country is cleaving to the strategy of protecting market share rather than cutting production to boost prices.

Another Big Reason to Think Oil Prices Aren't Going Up Soon Bloomberg

Oil just had its first weekly decline in a month, breaking a rally in crude prices. A bit of context: After what's happened over the last year, "rally" seems a bit of an overstatement.

Oil 'Rally'

One big factor that may be driving prices down this week: The U.S. is pumping so much oil it's running out of places to stash it.

Crude oil in storage in the U.S. has jumped to the highest levels in at least 80 years, according to a Bloomberg Industries analysis. The EIA this week reported that U.S. inventories rose 7.7 million barrels to 425.6 million. That's more than 20 percent higher than the five-year average.




U.S. Oil Inventories Reach 80-Year High

The buildup of supply has been "colossal" and is responsible for oil prices falling this week, Thomas Finlon, director of Energy Analytics Group LLC, told Bloomberg News.

Winter weather and refinery outages have contributed to the supply glut. Even when those conditions subside, topped-out inventories and continued production growth may continue to suppress oil prices for the near- and medium-term, according to Bloomberg Industries.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is pumping oil at a faster pace than any time since 1972.

U.S. oil production since 1983. Source: EIA




Lebanese gains and losses from lower oil prices The Dailly Star +NewBase

The fall of crude oil prices by 50 percent since June is seen to largely benefit oil-importing economies and to challenge oil exporters. In the case of Lebanon, an energy importer and aspiring energy exporter, there are mixed effects on its broader economy, and vital lessons as it works to launch its oil and gas industry.

On the economic front, the World Bank highlighted in a recent report the primary benefit of the oil price drop to come from a lower fuel bill for the national electricity company, Electricité du Liban. This is significant given that in the past four years exceptionally high oil prices have cost the Lebanese government, on average, an astounding 4.7 percent of GDP to maintain electricity prices constant, by covering any price difference above $23 per barrel. Another positive impact is the fall of 20 liters of gasoline from LL39,000 to LL22,000, benefiting consumers. If low prices are sustained, the effects can eventually create an economic boost by increasing the spending power of cash-strapped consumers. However, some economists are advocating slightly raising gasoline taxes to help reduce the budget deficit and finance higher wages for civil servants.




On the negative side, the flow of remittances from Lebanese emigrants could be at risk. In 2014, Lebanese expatriates sent a significant $7.7 billion to support families back home – which constitutes more than 16 percent of Lebanon’s GDP. As 60 percent of these financial flows come from Gulf countries, they could be at risk due to lower oil price leading to project delays, budget cuts and may ultimately impact the employment and income of Lebanese working in the Gulf Cooperation Council states. This has caused Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh to find falling oil prices the biggest economic challenge facing the country in 2015.

Other sectors are also likely to be impacted, including energy-intensive industries such as Lebanese manufacturers. Lower fuel bills can decrease their production costs, enhancing their competitiveness. On the political front, the flow of political funding from neighboring countries could possibly decline and influence domestic politics as well as regional conflicts in Syria and Iraq.

When it comes to Lebanon’s embryonic oil and gas sector, the sharp energy price drop offers a significant cautionary tale as the country prepares to launch its first licensing round.

As Lebanese witness the extreme volatility of energy markets, this serves as a reminder of the painful repercussions on the economies and citizens of countries highly reliant on commodity exports. This is why proper planning will be crucial early on. For example, a stabilization fund must be set up to cushion the economy. Countries with poor planning such as Venezuela and Yemen, for example, are expected to face deficits of 17 and 9.5 percent of GDP respectively and will have to borrow internationally to maintain their current spending.

This can also be an opportunity to persuade the Lebanese to diversify the economy away from the oil sector. Future oil revenues will have to be invested to develop other industries, and saved for future generations.

The new reality of cheaper oil also has unclear effects on investments in new oil exploration and development. Several dynamics could pose serious risks for Lebanon as it works to launch its first licensing round. It can however be turned into an opportunity if decision-makers devise a thoughtful strategy to attract investors.

Energy companies are widely reported to be tightening their budgets and have a reduced appetite to explore new basins. A striking Goldman Sachs analysis found that almost $1 trillion in future oil project investments across the world will no longer be economically viable with Brent crude at $70. Countries, such as Lebanon, seeking to attract new investments must now compete more seriously with other countries that could slash royalties and taxes to maintain the interest of companies.

On the flip side, the situation today might be an opportunity to start new exploration projects. Some analysts anticipate that energy prices will rebound in the long run and believe that now is the right time to advance offshore exploration – which would start production in five to eight years, making the most out of future oil price booms. Such projects could be economically viable given the decline in drilling equipment costs which make up to 40 percent of the total cost of offshore projects.

These are timely insights as the Cabinet reviews decrees outlining how best to attract international oil companies while maximizing Lebanon’s share of profits, and the best timing to launch the licensing round.




Oman Oil, Orpic key global oil and gas event

The first international downstream exhibition and conference, Oman Refining and PetrochemicalsExhibition and Conference (ORPEC), organised by Omanexpo and global organisation WorldRefining Association, is set from March 16 to 18 at the Oman International Exhibition Centre. The event is spearheaded by Oman Oil Company (OOC) and Oman Oil Refineries and PetroleumIndustries Company (Orpic), the biggest entities in the Middle East's refining and petrochemicalsector.

The oil and gas industry in Oman has always been the key driver of the country's economy. While exploration and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) activities continue to take centre stage, the government is placing equal attention on the refining and processing of petrochemicals and crude oil and distribution of its by-products, creating investment and employment opportunities for downstream industries, and boosting downstream facilities. It has also invested in multi-million projects such as the Duqm Refinery, Muscat-Sohar Pipeline Project and Liwa Plastics Project. Government-owned Oman Oil Company, the national flagship company, plays a significant role in seeking areas of investment within Oman and outside of Oman, the development of oil and gas-based industries and other energy and energy-related projects in cooperation with global industry players. Speakership roles will be taken by Orpic's Henk Pauw, general manager, Liwa Plastics Project, who will provide insight on the $3-billion project; Nofal Al Saidi, general manager, Human Resource Services, will speak about talent development in the downstream workforce; logistics general manager Andres Suarez will share an overview of the $200-million Muscat-Sohar Pipeline Project (MSPP), showcasing Oman's potential to become a logistics hub




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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010

Mobile : +97150-4822502 [email protected] [email protected]

Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed great

experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 22 February 2015 K. Al Awadi

new base 545 special 22 february 2015

Economy & Finance