stiftung neue verantwortung

Impulse 26/13

October 2013

Government Foresight Foresight in Science and Technology: The case of Japan Interview with | Ms. Yoshiko Yokoo, Senior Research Fellow, Science and Technology Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan

1. Henning Hetzer:  Ms. Yokoo, what is the mission of the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) and how does it engage in foresight? Ms. Yokoo: NISTEP has three missions: (1.) to foresee future agendas for science and technology policy and investigate them proactively, (2.) to carry out research in response to requests from government agencies and to provide data that forms the basis of research and (3.) to play a key cooperative and contributing role in activities with other institutions and researchers. Large-scale national-level foresight exercises have been implemented every five years since 1971, which NISTEP has been responsible for since its establishment in 1989. NISTEP set up the Science and Technology Foresight Center in 2001 to enhance research capacity regarding trends

in science and technology development. The center conducts a variety of foresight activities including the large-scale exercises mentioned above and carries out constant research on the present situation and future prospects of science and technology with related social issues. 2. H. Hetzer: Japan and your institute are famous for the Delphi-surveys. What role does this method play for your work today and what other foresight methods do you integrate in your current activities? Ms. Yokoo: The Japanese Delphi survey is characterized by its long history and extensive coverage of technologies. It provides basic information about majority perspectives of technological developments or social changes. You could say that it is a kind of database of future possible events. If the nature of the survey is understood, it

Government Foresight    

Impulse 26/2013 2

has the potential to serve evidence-based policy making. The Delphi survey has strengths and weaknesses: It sketches out a single possible future, not multiple futures. It provides insights into the potential of each technology, but doesn’t reveal how technologies and social systems should be interrelated to contribute to the realization of a better future. Cross-cutting issues might be overlooked because discussions are basically made by technology field. Respondents give their own views free of influence by authorities or strong voices, but innovative ideas are sometimes underappreciated because they are beyond common perspectives. Major participants are experts in science and technology. Other approaches are needed to allow for broader participation. In light of the characteristics above, we take a variety of approaches. As for the Delphi survey itself, we select topics considering trends in socio-economic needs and social goals. Discussion on cross-cutting issues and integration of technological fields are encouraged by inviting experts with very different backgrounds and expertise. The Delphi survey is but one part of our larger foresight exercise. In our recent exercises we combined the Delphi survey with a number of other methods such as scenario planning, bibliometrics, literature survey, panels and workshops. In the latest exercise, scenario themes were prepared concerning four grand challenges, the overarching social goals. This scenario work was informed by the discussion of the Delphi topics. Scenarios focused on the way to achieve the respective goals including social circumstances and a systematization of related technologies. Workshops

provided for an opportunity for discussion among citizens, government, industry and academia in different local areas and communities. 3. H. Hetzer: Integrating foresight into policy-making seems to be a challenge many countries face. How do you engage with other government actors in this endeavour? How do you coordinate and communicate?   Ms. Yokoo: In recent exercises, we had regular meetings with policy makers to grasp their requirements for improvement of research design. Interim results were provided in response to their requests. We invited them to panel meetings and workshops to share awareness of the issues for to-the-point discussions. We also worked on the dissemination of foresight results. Follow-up workshops were held to engage in extensive discussions on cross-cutting issues based on results. Experts in different fields and sectors got together to discuss the potential to transfer these results into development and application in society. 4. H. Hetzer: Are there examples of the impact your work has had on policy making in Japan that you could share with us? Ms. Yokoo: I would like refer to two examples: one relating to the overall formulation of comprehensive policy and the other relating to a specific policy initiative. The first example is that some results of our foresight exercises were provided as basic information for the discussion of Science and Technology Basic Plans, the basic plans for promoting S&T that are formulated by

Government Foresight    

Impulse 26/2013 3

the government every five years. Good communication with members of the Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP) enabled us to provide appropriate information with proper timing and hence to add value to the respective policy processes. The second example is the impact our work has had on the organizational basis for a specific policy issue. Follow-up workshops were organized on two themes: “interdisciplinary research based on mathematics” and “robotics in future daily life.” At the “mathematics” workshop, people from academia and industry discussed the potential of mathematics and its expected contribution to development in other fields and industrial application. This workshop and the subsequent in-depth analysis led to setting up a new unit and a committee for promoting mathematical innovation within the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. 5. H. Hetzer: What role does cooperation with other institutes or government organizations play for the work you do and are there any criteria for successful cooperation? Ms. Yokoo: We think that collaboration is a good opportunity to exchange experiences, learn from each other and to improve our skills. We have had collaborative foresight projects with institutes abroad especially in the field of methodological development. We hold international conferences or workshops every few years, which also open up possibilities for exchange of opinions among relevant experts. Additionally, we operate a network of

scientists and engineers, from which we hope to get insights regarding the current situation and prospects of developments in science, technology and society. 6. H. Hetzer: What have been the major lessons learned of your work, which may also be valuable for other foresight actors in different countries? Ms. Yokoo: Foresight exercises that contribute to policy making require continuous exchange of information and opinions with policy makers. We need to arouse policy makers’ interest in foresight activities as a first step. For this, we have to clearly demonstrate that foresight activities can be useful to shape the future.

Government Foresight    

Impulse 26/2013 4

|Ms. Yoshiko Yokoo

Ms. Yoshiko Yokoo joined the Science and Technology Foresight Center as a Senior Research Fellow after being engaged in researches on human resources for science and technology, and dietary life. She has been engaged in foresight activities since the seventh foresight exercise in 2001. Ms. Yokoo studied science of living and policy studies. Her research focuses on the role of foresight for science and technology

policy and the evaluation and improvement of foresight methods. | The National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP)

The National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) is a national research institution that was established in accordance with the National Government Organization Law under the direct jurisdiction of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) to be engaged in the Japanese government’s science and technology policy-planning process. It is expected to ascertain government needs to collaborate and cooperate with government agencies, including participation in the decision-making process. NISTEP carries out research primarily in the seven areas noted below, in order to promote science, technology and innovation policy, collaborating with domestic and foreign universities and public research institutions. Research results are released through a variety of channels, including the “NISTEP REPORT”, “Research Material”, “Science and Technology Trends”, as well as at seminars and international conferences organized by NISTEP, and more.

Research Areas: - Science of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy - R&D and Innovation - Science and Technology System - Human Resources in Science and Technology - Science and Technology Indicators, and Scientometrics - Science and Technology Foresight, and Science and Technology Trends - The Relationship of Science and Technology with Society

Government Foresight    

Impulse 26/2013 5

| About the Government Foresight Project Acting strategically is one of governments’ key tasks. However, planning and implementing future­oriented policy is particularly challenging due to the multitude of stakeholders, the growing interdependence between different policy areas and the wide spectrum of dynamic developments. Examples such as the Arab Spring and the global financial crisis illustrate that decision makers (including their advisors and critical commentators) are often taken by surprise and are not well prepared to deal with such developments. Against this background strategic Foresight is gaining importance for government institutions at the federal level. The project Government Foresight seeks to develop proposals for enhancing strategic Foresight at the federal level of the German state. To that end, structured interviews serve as vehicles to explore ideas of renowned experts as well as approaches and best practices in other countries and organizations and to generate Impulses for further developing Government Foresight in Germany. | The Government Foresight Project Team

Fellow Kathrin Brockmann, Futures Analysis Section, Bundeswehr Planning Office

Associates Dr. Klaus Brösamle, Hertie School of Governance Ingemar Friedrich Buehler, Bayer AG Julia Döhrn, Federal Ministry of Defence Dr. Beate Freuding, BEYOND – Strategic Consulting Julian Fricke, Federal Foreign Office Henning Hetzer, Futures Analysis Section, Bundeswehr Planning Office Dr. Claudia Huber, Alfred Herrhausen Society. The International Forum of Deutsche Bank Dr. Florian Keisinger, Federal Ministry of Finance Leopold Schmertzing, Doctoral Researcher, University of Vienna, Austria | About stiftung neue verantwortung

Stiftung neue verantwortung is an independent, non-profit, and non-partisan German think tank located in Berlin. It promotes interdisciplinary and intersectoral thinking about the most important societal and political challenges of our time. Through its Fellow- and Associate-Program the think tank brings together young experts and thought leaders from politics and administration, business, academia, and civil society to develop creative ideas and solutions and introduce these into public discourse through a variety of publications and events.

Government Foresight    

Impulse 26/2013 6

Impressum

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or copied without written permission by stiftung neue verantwortung. © stiftung neue verantwortung, 2013

stiftung neue verantwortung e.V. Beisheim Center Berliner Freiheit 2 10785 Berlin T. +49 30 81 45 03 78 80 F. +49 30 81 45 03 78 97 www.stiftung-nv.de info@stiftung-nv.de