Network and vulnerability analysis of internatioanal spice

trade

Zoltán Lakner;Erzsébet Szabó;Viktória Szűcs;

András Székács

Paprika: an emblematic product of Hungary

Paprika and political marketing: the paternalistic „war MP”

Paprika production in Hungary

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

120thousand T

Global trade network of dried papper, 1998

IDN

IND

SGP

MYS

SouthAsiaNorthAmerica

LatinAmerica

EastAsia

Europe

NLD

BRA

Dried pepper trade 2003

VNM

IDN

SGP

IND

SouthAsiaEastAsia

Dried pepper trade, 2014

VNM

IDN

SGP

IND

SouthAsiaEastAsia

Crushed pepper trade, 2014

INDNLD

DEU

USA

EUROPE

Who is in the center?

Discovering Sets of Key Players in Social Networks – Daniel Ortiz-Arroyo – Springer 2010

d

a

b

c

d

e

f

g

h

r

i

p

n

jk

m

q

s

l

o

t u v

w z x

HighestDegree centrality

HighestCloseness centrality

HighestBetweennesscentralityHigherst

Eigenvectorcentrality

MTLUSIIEFI

CYSKGRROPTDKHRBGLVEELTCZHUPLSEBEATIT

FRGBNLDEES

0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6

Brockerage role of actors in Europeanpaprika powder trade network

Authority centrality

--LUMTESCYSIIELTLVDKBGROHR

FIGREEHUIT

PTBESESKCZATFRPLNLGBDE

0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6

MTLUSIIEFI

CYSKGRROPTDKHRBGLVEELTCZHUPLSEBEATIT

FRGBNLDEES

0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6

Eigenvector-centrality

Betweenness centrality

--IE

CYESHUPTMTLV

GRFI

HRLUFRSKPLSEDESI

ATRONLDKEEIT

BELTCZBGGB

0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30 0,35

In-degree centrality

CYLUMTLVSILTIEFI

ESDKBGHRGREEROHUIT

SEPTBESKCZATFRPLGBNLDE

0,00 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05

Out-degree centrality

HRLTBGCYLV

RODKIE

MTFI

LUGRCZSI

EESEPTSKPLGBFRATBENLDEHUIT

ES

0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15

Identification of the sytem and its boundaries

EU(28), intra-EU trade flows, 1988-2014, based on Eurostat

and FAOSTAT data

Determination of intensity of trade-flows between countries

Based on stochastic characteristics of trade flows, simulation of potentical consequences

of emergence of contaminated products

Boundary conditions: -just the intra-EU trade;-10% domestic consumption between the steps;-homogenous product;-discrete steps

Simulation by

Simulation parametersInput: 28×28 trade matrix,

Edges are stochastic variables;Nodes: domestic consumption

Simulated contaminations2×1000×28 series of simulations

Method: Euler

Analysis of results by

Logistic(37365,0; 4525,0)

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

25 30 35 40 45 50

Thousand T

Valu

es x

10

-̂4

Fitting a function to data: anexample of Spanish-German parpika

trade

Analysis of 2004-2014 years

• Active trade in last five years;• More than 30 fitted fucntions;• Test statistics:

– Chi-square test;– Kolmogorov-Smirnov test;– Anderson-Darling test.Last word: expert estimations

otherexpon

lognormalParetonormal

LevyTriangular

WeibulUniformlogistic

Log-logisctiInverse Gaussian

0 5 10 15 20 %

Relative frequency of fitted distribution types

Pearson5(4,6526; 0,21512) Shift=-0,0080550

0

5

10

15

20

25

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0,50

< >5,0%90,0%0,0167 0,1145

Example: density function of simulation results ofContaminated paprika in Bulgaria at 0+3 Source UK

Proliferation profile of contaminated pepper at 0+2 time step

Source of contamination: Fr

cyhrlatro

estsksi

bgfin

lthugrnl

semtpl

dkaudeirl

luxczpt

espbe

itukfr

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 %

roseirl

bgbelatau

ltukczfrnlit

mtcysi

skpt

luxdepl

estfin

esphrdkgrhu

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 %

Proliferation profile of contaminated pepper at 0+5 time step

Proliferation profile of contaminated red pepper Supposed source: FR

aubebgcyczdedkestespfinfrukgrhrhuirl

itltluxlatmtnlplptrosesisk

0 5 10 15 20

6 5 3 1

Step

%

aubebgcyczdedkestespfinfr

ukgrhrhuirlitlt

luxlatmtnlplptrosesi

sk

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

5 3 2 1

%

Proliferation profile of contaminated red pepper Supposed source: HR

Average burden of contaminated pepper after 0+6 step (all potential sources)

nlauestbgdebegrlatespseitptfrskhrcyluxmtsiirlfinrodkltukhuplcz

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 %

Average burden of contaminated Chilli pepper after 0+6 step (all potential sources)

bgluxauhubeptitfr

esplatnl

deltirlcy

estdkpl

mtsegrskhrsiczukfinro

0 1 2 3 4 5

Y=0.42 X1+0.18 X2 - 0.29 X3 R=0.72WhereY burden of accumulation of Chilli

papperX1 domestic consumptionX2 inbound centralityX3 outbond centrality

System of factors, influencing burden of Proliferated Chilli papper after 0+6 step

Y=0.55 X1+0.09X2

R=0.77WhereY burden of accumulation of pepperX1 domestic consumptionX2 normalised Bonacich centrality

System of factors, influencing burden of proliferated pepper after 0+6 step

• The spice network is a vulnerable network;• An ideal target for politics-driven terrorism

and economic sabotage;• The control should be focussed on hubs;• In case of emergency: the network-based

simulation is able to optimalise the quarantine strategy

Lessons