nestor osteuropa bond: investing in the eastern european bond market

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30.03.22 NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market. General information on Eastern Europe. This region comprises countries whose economies are in markedly different stages of development and which come in a variety of shapes and sizes - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

19.04.23

NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

Page 2: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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General information on Eastern Europe

This region comprises countries whose economies are in markedly different stages of development and which come in a variety of shapes and sizes

New EU member states: 10 countries including the Baltic states, Bulgaria and Romania

Then there are the 12 independent states of the former Soviet Union, with the main focus on Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

Plus South-Eastern Europe: Croatia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Serbia

Page 3: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

Macroeconomic trends in Eastern Europe: Russia

Economy is expected to experience a V-shape recovery amid positive external factors and improving local consumption

3

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f

6.47.7 8.1

5.6

-7.9

4.9

10.9

9

11.913.3

8.87.1

119.6

5.9 6.2

4 4.7

GDP growth (%) Consumer prices (%) CA/GDP (%)

Page 4: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

Macroeconomic trends in Eastern Europe: Russia

Historically solid structural position remains, despite sizeable budget deficits in 2009 and 2010

4

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f

33.531.4

36

29.1

38.4

34.1

23.7

30.7

36.9

25.5

35.632.8

7.5 7.45.4 4.1

-5.9 -4.6

External Debt/GDP (%) Reserves/GDP (%) Fiscal Balance/GDP (%)

Page 5: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Macroeconomic trends in Eastern Europe: Ukraine

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f

2.7

7.3 7.6

2.1

-15.1

3.9

10.3 11.6

16.6

22.3

12.310.8

2.9

-1.5-3.7

-7.1

-1.5-0.1

GDP growth (%) Consumer prices (%) CA/GDP (%)

Ukraine was hit the hardest by the economic crisis in 2009. An improvement is expected for 2010. Its external position has stabilized

Page 6: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

Macroeconomic trends in Eastern Europe: Ukraine

Political stabilization and a new IMF $15b programme are very positive for country’s fiscal situation and deficit financing ability, thus solvency

6

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f

41.8 42.952

56.8

85.780.7

22.5 20.8 22.817.5

22.6 21.7

-1.8 -0.7 -1.1 -1.5-11.3 -6.5

External Debt/GDP (%) Reserves/GDP (%) Fiscal Balance/GDP (%)

Page 7: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

Macroeconomic trends in Eastern Europe: Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan was the first victim of the financial crisis. It is now leading the recovery

Outflows abroad should stabilize in 2010

7

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f

9.710.7

8.9

3.2

1.22.4

7.68.6

10.8

17

7.3 7.3

-1.8 -2.5

-7.8

5.3

-3.1

0.7

GDP growth (%) CPI (%) CA/GDP (%)

Page 8: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

Macroeconomic trends in Eastern Europe: Kazakhstan

Budget deficits and currency reserves are within reasonable ranges. Reserves are growing steadily

Borrowing from abroad will fall in 2010 as the foreign debt of the banking sector is restructured

8

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

76.0

91.5 92.8

81.1

101.9

26.5

41.1 37.0 35.543.5

0.6 0.8

-1.7 -2.5 -3.8

External Debt/GDP (%) Reserves/GDP (%) Fiscal Balance/GDP (%)

Page 9: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Macroeconomic trends in Eastern Europe: recovery in industrial output

The clear trend in the CIS region has been one of fundamental economic recovery since 2Q09. The very last few months demonstrated some slowdown of recovery, but no double-dip

Only in Kazakhstan, however, has industrial output reached pre-crisis levels.

Kazakhstan's growth is being driven by the oil and gas sectors and by increasing economic ties with China.

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Russia

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Page 10: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Eastern European credit markets I

90

100

110

120

130

Dec-09 J an-10 F eb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 J un-10 J ul-10

T DI R uss ia T DI Ukraine T DI K azakhstan

Page 11: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Eastern European credit markets II

CIS debt market performance YTD as represented by family of TDI* indices

High-beta markets (e.g. Ukraine and Kazakhstan) strongly outperformed amid strong investors’ risk appetite and country-specific drivers:

In Ukraine - political power consolidation and successful cooperation with IMF

In Kazakhstan, finalization of banking sector’s restructuring

May’10 has been the only month on Russian debt market with negative performance during the last 17 months

Activity on the primary market has been elevated, as Russian issuers placed almost $20bn in Eurobonds, while companies from Ukraine and Kazakhstan borrowed ca. $4bn in total

Still no representative index of Central-Eastern Europe debt markets available

Page 12: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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NESTOR Osteuropa Bond performance

Fund’s official benchmark* significantly outperformed (7.5% vs 2.3%) in 7m10

Among peers, NESTOR Osteuropa Bond Fund has a long track-record and solid performance

The Fund has demonstrated comparable annualized return at lower volatility since inception compared to peers, justifying its benchmark-unaware style

* 6-

mon

ths

Eur

ibor

+ 3

%

Page 13: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

Peer Funds´ Indexed Performance

13

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Dec-0

3

Jun-

04

Dec-0

4

Jun-

05

Dec-0

5

Jun-

06

Dec-0

6

Jun-

07

Dec-0

7

Jun-

08

Dec-0

8

Jun-

09

Dec-0

9

Jun-

10

NESTOR Osteuropa Bond Fonds

UBS Russia Bond Fund

Evli Russia Debt Fund

DWS Russia Bond Fund

Page 14: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

Peer Funds´ risk and performance characteristics since inception

14

Risk/Return comparison, since inception

DWS Russia Bond Fund

Evli Russia Debt Fund

UBS Russia Bond Fund

NESTOR Osteuropa

Bond Fonds

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

Ret

urn

calc

ulat

ed a

s an

nual

ized

ret

urn

sinc

e ea

ch f

und’

s in

cept

ion

date

(y-

axis

).

Ris

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pres

sed

as s

tand

ard

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atio

n of

dai

ly o

ne-y

ear

retu

rns

for

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fun

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ime

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Page 15: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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NESTOR Osteuropa Bond composition

Issuer Country Maturity date Weighting

Bank CenterCredit Kazakhstan 2 Feb 2011 5.58%

Bank of Georgia Georgia 8 Feb 2012 5.53%

Azovstal Ukraine 28 Feb 2011 5.43%

Gazprom Russia 1 Feb 2020 4.97%

Eesti Energia Estonia 18 Nov 2020 4.81%

Eurochem Russia 21 Mar 2012 4.74%

NCSP Russia 17 May 2012 4.61%

ATF Bank Kazakhstan 28 Oct 2010 4.57%

Parex Bank Latvia 5 May 2011 4.49%

MOL Hungary 5 Oct 2015 4.27%

Total 48.99%

Oil and gas, 12.1%

Transportation, 8.2%

Industrials, 7.8%

Energy, 4.8%

Chemicals, 4.7%

Real estate and construction, 3.0%

Retail, 2.6%

Net cash, 15.3%

Media and telecommunications,

3.8%

Banks and financials, 37.7%

Page 16: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

NESTOR Osteuropa Bond composition

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33.7%

65.6%

99.4%

66.3%

-65.6%

0.7%

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

Before hedge FX hedge After hedge

EUR USDUkraine, 13.9%

Kazakhstan, 12.9%

Georgia, 9.1%

Estonia, 7.5%

Poland , 6.2%

Hungary, 4.3%

Bulgaria, 3.0%

Net cash, 15.3%

Russia, 23.3%

Latvia, 4.5%

Page 17: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Bank CenterCredit, Kazakhstan, Moody’s Ba3, Fitch B; maturing on 2 Feb 2011

Kazakhstan’s fourth largest bank with a wide network of 200 branches across Kazakhstan with a focus on retail and SME

The largest bank of South Korea Kookmin Bank (A1/A/A) together with IFC jointly control the bank (51.9% ownership)

The bank enjoys best asset quality among peers and no government stake, as the bank refused to accept governmental support in the time of systemic crisis

Low leveraged systemically-important bank which benefits from strong shareholders, long-term profile of its debt and overliquidity:

43% of assets in cash and government bonds!

Loans/Deposits 91%

Status of bond in fund as at 30 July 2010: YTM 6%, term of 0.49 years

Page 18: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Bank of Georgia, Georgia, Moody’s Ba3, S&P B, Fitch B+; maturing on 8 Feb 2012

Largest private bank in Georgia by far (around one third of market share); has to some extent the characteristics of a monopoly

Strong support from IFI, EBRD, IFC and OPIC through the provision of comprehensive long-term loans and subordinated loans at favourable conditions

Overcapitalized, overliquid bank with a capital ratio of 32.2% and cash of 38.7%

No significant repayments before the Eurobond issue matures

Status of bond in fund as at 30 July 2010: YTM 9.3%, term of 1.4 years

Page 19: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Azovstal, Ukraine, Moody’s B3, Fitch B-; maturing on 28 Feb 2011

One of the largest steel plants in Ukraine: key asset of vertically integrated steel holding Metinvest (part of Mr. R. Akhmetov-controlled SCM Group)

Exports over 80% of its products, partly to affiliated companies located in Western Europe

Political environment is extremely beneficial after presidential elections, as the owner Mr. Akhmetov has a strong influence in the now ruling Party of Regions

Low leverage: Debt/EBITDA constantly below 2x

Recent Metinvest bond issuance improved liquidity of the group, making it easier to redeem Azovstal bond in February

Bond repayment is a matter of Group reputation (Metinvest aims to tap global financial markets for an IPO). In addition, the new Metinvest bonds include cross-default on Azovstal debt

Status of bond in fund as at 30 July 2010: YTM 12.3%, term of 0.6 years

Page 20: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Gazprom Russia, Fitch A-; maturing on 1 Feb 2020

Gazprom is one of the world’s largest integrated oil & gas companies with operations in CIS and Europe. Besides, it owns and operates the world’s largest gas transportation, storage and processing system exceeding 159 thousand km

Gazprom is a pure quasi-sovereign issuer, as under the Gas Supply Law the state will maintain a majority ownership stake in the company going forward

Despite weak operational environment, its debt/EBITDA ratio at the end of 2009 was moderate – 1.5x

Gazprom is well recognized borrower, as it was the first CIS company able to borrow on Eurobond market following a Lehman Brothers collapse

Bond valuation in fund as at 3 July 2010: YTM 6.3%, maturity of 3.1 years

Page 21: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Structural portfolio – changesin 7 months 2010 I

In 2010-to-date, the driving themes in the portfolio have been:

Riding the cyclical recovery and booking gains when undervaluation disappeared (e.g., banking, metals and mining)

Adding positions outside CIS, which lost the clear undervaluation status during the period

Reinvest in instruments selected on a bottom-up basis to reduced the beta of the portfolio

Page 22: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Structural portfolio – changesin 7 months 2010 II

More specifically, across sectors the following changes took place:

Banking sector (our favorite at the start of 2010) has significantly decreased (from 60% to 40%) due to redemptions (Ukrsots’10, Russkiy Standart’10) and sold/reduced positions (Bank of Georgia, Halyk, Privatbank, VTB, BTA)

Metals and mining have also significantly reduced (by 9%) as we took profits in Severstal, Raspadskaya, Kazakhgold (in the former two cases excellent timing of trades)

Media (Polish TVN), transportation (Georgian Railways) and oil&gas (Alliance oil) have been increased the most in the Fund, but bottom-up factors rather than industry views have been the drivers

New sectors: utilities (Zagreb Hld.) and energy (Eesti Energia)

Page 23: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Structural portfolio – changesin 7M10 IV

In terms of countries:

Our 2010-start top-pick Russia was reduced most (8.6% to 25%), “exotic” Azerbaijan eliminated (put option used on Technikabank)

Increased/new countries – Poland (+4.7%), Estonia (+3.7%), Georgia (+3.5%)

As the attractive short-duration opportunities matured/rallied, the overall portfolio duration increased from 1.9 to 2.6 during the period

Page 24: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Investment process

Third party researchInternal investment universe review (bi-weekly)

New issues

Idea list to buy Idea list to sell

Weekly portfolio movers review

PORTFOLIO

Internal rating assignedFair spread assigned

Internal rating revisedFair spread reassessed

Idea screening for further investigation (weekly meeting)=> Weekly agenda for analysts

Undervalued => include in buy-list

Overvalued => include in sell list

Page 25: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Investment process

Our investment process is completely benchmark-unaware

We seek and evaluate opportunities on a stand-alone risk/return merits

The selection process used follows a bottom-up approach. The starting point is knowledge of the local conditions coupled with internal research findings and bond-specific considerations

Internal ratings are assigned, as are fair spread levels based on market data (valuation score <1 implies undervaluation, >1 implies overvaluation)

Buy and sell signals are derived as a result

Page 26: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Investment process example 1Total return = 37.2% (40.3% p.a.)

BUY Actual spread – 1340bpInternal rating – Ba3Fair spread – 913bpValuation score – 0.68x SELL

Actual spread – 341bpInternal rating – Ba3Fair spread – 43\8bpValuation score – 1.29x

Raspadskaya 7.5% 21012

Russia's second largest coal producer

One of strongest credits in Russian metals & mining segment with debt/EBITDA at 0.5x FY08 and 1.3 FY09

Bought 18.5.2009: 81.00 (valuation score 0.68x)

Sold 20.4.2010: 105.50 (valuation score 1.29)

Page 27: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Investment process example 2Total return = 43.4% (51.6% p.a.)

BUY Actual spread – 1382bpInternal rating – Ba2Fair spread – 726bpValuation score – 0.53x

SELL Actual spread – 440bpInternal rating – Ba3Fair spread – 465bpValuation score – 1.06x

Severstal 9.75% 2013

One of the world’s leading vertically integrated steel and mining companies with key assets in Russia, the US and Europe

Conservative debt and liquidity management with cash surpassing short-term debt at all times

Bought 12.5.2009: 81.75 (valuation score 0.53x)

Sold 15.03.2010: 110.50 (valuation score 1.06x)

Page 28: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Investment process example 3Total return = 16.3% (50.1% p.a.)

BUY Actual spread – 747bpInternal rating – Baa3Fair spread – 368bpValuation score – 0.49x

SELL Actual spread – 503bpInternal rating – Baa3Fair spread – 311bpValuation score – 0.62x

Kazmunaigaz 11.75% 2015

Kazakh vertically integrated national oil&gas champion which consolidates around a fifth of country’s oil production

High importance for the country and healthy cash generation. Was undervalued relative to Gazprom and local peers, but started to leverage up its balance sheet significantly

Bought on 11.08.2009: 106.00 (valuation score 0.49x)

Sold out on 08.12.2009: 119.25 (valuation score 0.62x)

Page 29: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Outlook for 2010 I

We expect global deflationary environment along with further quantitative easing policies to continue and to support emerging market debt also in H2’2010

Fundamentally, credit-risk metrics are still generally favourable for emerging market debt relative to developed markets

In Eastern Europe, this is clearly the case for Russia, Kazakhstan, Poland

In Ukraine, the radical change in political environment along with the new IMF program expected to further normalize macroeconomic environment, fiscal and external balances

In the short-term, however, technicals may cause market corrections, which we think should be used to “buy on dips”:

Yields of many debt instruments are at their all-time lows

But credit spreads are still wider than before the start of the crisis

Page 30: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Outlook for 2010 II

In sum, while we see further upside to the market over medium-term, the period of “easy money” appears to be behind us

In relative terms, in Eastern European debt markets we continue to prefer Ukraine and Kazakhstan to Russia, yet in all markets security selection has become increasingly important

As usual, in Central Europe’s eurobond market bottom-up approach is the basis for investing

Page 31: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Strategy for 2010

Strategy of the Fund remains largely unchanged from the start of the year

We will continue to concentrate on bottom-up approach, i.e., careful issuer-specific fundamental analysis will remain the backbone in security selection =>

Industry and country allocations are a by-product, not a determinant

Duration depends on credit opinion about a certain issuer – for some we prefer short duration, for others long duration instruments

Page 32: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

Strategy for 2010

However, the general trends in the Fund are expected to be:

Gradual reduction in Ukraine weighting as instruments achieve their fair levels

Further reduction of the less liquid positions (e.g., Estonia)

Overall portfolio duration (now at 2.6) expected to remain roughly unchanged

Each primary corporate debt placement will continue to be carefully assessed

CEE opportunities evaluated on a case-by-case basis, more exposure in these more stable markets may be acquired

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Page 33: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

Contact details

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Distributor:NESTOR-Fonds-Vertriebs-GmbH, Ottostraße 5, D-80333 Munich

Tel.: +49 (0) 89 / 54 59 03 80Fax: +49 (0) 89 / 54 59 03 85

E-mail: [email protected]

www.nestor-fonds.comwww.nestor-fonds.com/en (English)www.nestor-fonds.com/fr (français)

Investment company:NESTOR Investment Management S.A., B.P. 858, L-2018 Luxembourg

Tel.: +352 / 42 70 42Fax: +352 / 42 74 54

Page 34: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Legal notice

This document was produced by NESTOR Investment Management S.A. (NESTOR). It is aimed exclusively at those recipients to which NESTOR has specifically made the document available. If this document is made available to a client, only that client shall be the recipient, even if the document was handed to a member of staff or representative of the client. The recipient may not publish this document nor make it available to a third party or allow a third party access to it. This document does not constitute and shall not be construed as an offer or an invitation to make an offer. It may be used only as guidance and to illustrate potential business activities. No claim is made as to the exhaustiveness of the information contained in this document, and it is therefore non-binding. Any statements made in this document about prices or interest rates or any other indications that are given relate exclusively to the time that the document was produced and do not contain any statements about future trends or in particular about future profits or losses. While the content of this information was accurate at the time the presentation was produced, it may have since become out of date as a result of subsequent events without the document having been modified. In addition, this document does not constitute and shall not be construed as advice or a recommendation. Before concluding any transactions shown in this document, you should always obtain client and product-specific advice from your advisor. Detailed product information can be found in the current full version of the prospectus, the simplified prospectus and the annual and interim reports. These documents set out the sole binding conditions for purchasing investment units. They can be obtained free of charge from the registered office of the investment company NESTOR Investment Management S.A., 2 Place Dargent, L-1413 Luxembourg), or the paying and information agents (M.M.Warburg Bank Luxembourg S.A., 2, Place Dargent, L-1413 Luxembourg; M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA, Ferdinandstr. 75, D-20095 Hamburg; Bank Austria Creditanstalt AG, Am Hof 2, A-1010 Vienna or NESTOR-Fonds-Vertriebs-GmbH, Ottostraße 5, D-80333 Munich).

Page 35: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Legal notice

The tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of the investor and is subject to change. More detailed information on taxation can be found in the prospectus. Anyone wishing to buy, hold or sell investment units should therefore consult a tax advisor about the individual tax implications arising from the purchase, holding or sale of the investment units described in this publication. Performance is calculated using the BVI method, i.e. the load is excluded. Past performance, simulations and forecasts are no indication of future performance. Future performance depends on a number of factors including capital market trends, interest rates and inflation and cannot therefore be forecast. For the advisory services, the intermediary receives a fee from the load and the management fee. The intermediary or NESTOR can provide detailed information on request. NESTOR accepts no liability for any losses arising from the use and/or distribution of this document.

NESTOR Investment Management S.A.- Management -

Page 36: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Appendix, Citadele Asset Management

Andris KotānsFund ManagerCitadele Asset Management

Edgars LaoBond AnalystCitadele Asset Management

Igors DanilovsBond AnalystCitadele Asset Management

Page 37: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

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Appendix, Citadele Asset Management

During Parex Bank restructuring process, the name of Parex Asset Management changed to Citadele Asset Management effective August 1, 2010. Shareholding/legal form/operations of the investment managed have not been affected by this change in any way

The leading investment specialist and asset manager in the Baltic states

Strong track record of successful product launches in Eastern Europe

Eastern European bond and balanced funds

Russian, Ukrainian and Baltic equity funds

Local presence in Ukraine, the Baltic states, Russia, Kazakhstan and Germany

Page 38: NESTOR Osteuropa Bond: Investing in the Eastern European bond market

Appendix, Citadele Asset Management

Asset management for clients in different regions: Main objective is to generate absolute returns under all market conditions

Leading local supplier of a complete product range for regional private and institutional clients

Financial products from all leading global asset managers, with comprehensive offering of all asset classes and investment strategies spanning the entire globe

A team of 70 experts with local and international experience

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