NEPAL'S CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO AND

EFFORTS TO PROMOTE LOW CARBON ENERGY

Dinesh R BhujuAcademician (Fellow)

Nepal Academy of Science and Technology

Country ProfileArea: 147,181 sqkm, landlocked mountainousPopulation: 27 millionHDI (2010) 0.428Per capita income: $1,100 (2008 est.)Main economic activity: Agriculture, >80 % of the populationEnergy: About 80% forest (fuel wood)Natural Resources: About 6,000 rivers and streams; About 7,000 vascular plant species

Nepal, along with over 150 other countries, signed UNFCCC in June1992; ratified the convention on 2nd May in 1994, and this convention came into force on 31st July in 1994.

GHG Type Net Emission

Major Source

Carbon dioxide

9747Gg Transport (31%), Industrial (27%), Residential (22%)

Methane 948Gg Agriculture

Nitrous Oxide

 29 Gg  Agriculture soils

Emission data for three gases having direct Greenhouse effects in Nepal

Nepal

-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

ANNUAL TEMPERATURE TREND

16.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

20.0

21.0

22.01

97

5

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

Year

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

All Nepal Mean Temperature Trend

GCM ProjectionsTemperature increase 0.5ºC - 2.0ºC with a multi-model mean of 1.4ºC, by the 2030s. Extremely hot days projected to increase by up to 55% by the 2060s and up to 70% by the 2090s; Extremely hot nights are projected to increase by up to 77% by the 2060s and 93% by the 2090s.

Precipitation change: from a decrease of 14% to an increase of 40% by the 2030s and from a decrease of 52% to an increase of 135% by the 2090s.

IPCC 4th Assessment Report

Risk of GLOFs (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods): starting to reduce the risks of GLOFs by draining water from glacier lakes [18.xcl].Glacial lake size: Lake Tsho Rolpa in the Nepal Himalaya has increased from 0.23 km2 to 1.65 km2 (1957-1997) [1.3.1.1].Serious and recurrent floods during 2002, 2003 and 2004 [Table 10.3]Temperature and decreases in precipitation along with increasing water use have caused water shortages that led to drying up of lakes and rivers [10.2.4.2]

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN NEPAL

• Highest 24-hr max. rainfall: 540 mm Highest Rainfall intensity: 67 mm/hr (Tistung)

• Northward shift of monsoon trough & local effect

• Flash flood, debris flow and landslides

• More than 1000 deaths• Loss of animals and properties

amounted to hundreds of millions of rupees.

• Damage to hydropower, Barrage, bridges, irrigation projects, buildings, agricultural land etc.

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTCloudburst of 19-21 July 1993, Tistung

Daily Rainfall at Tistung, July 1993

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

16-J

ul-0

3

17-J

ul-0

3

18-J

ul-0

3

19-J

ul-0

3

20-J

ul-0

3

21-J

ul-0

3

22-J

ul-0

3

23-J

ul-0

3

24-J

ul-0

3

25-J

ul-0

3

26-J

ul-0

3

Date

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

EVOLUTION OF GLACIAL LAKE AX010

1989

1978

1978 1989

1998 2008

There was new recruitments of seedlings and saplings in tree-line ecotone. The species limit has advanced from 3,673m asl in 1958 to 3,841m asl in 2007 with a total of 168 m upslope shift at the average rate of 34.29 m per decade. The seedlings below tree-line have comparatively faster growth.______________________________Ref. M. Suwal 2010

VEGETATION SHIFT IN HIGH HIMALAYA

ENERGY SCERNARIO OF NEPAL

Energy Consumption in NepalTotal 401 MGJ

Source Per cent

Traditional 87%

Commercial 12%

Alternatives >1%Source: WECS 2010

World average energy consumption per year per person: 68 Gigajoule

Per capita energy consumption of Nepal: 15 Gigajoule

HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION

• Rivers: >6000; Steep topography

• Potential 83,000 MW; Technically feasible 43,000 MW

• Pharping: 500 kW• Access to electricity:

43.6% of the total population

• Total energy generated 714 MW; Fulfills merely 1% of total energy demand

• Currently power deficit of 400 MW in the country

Source: Economic Survey, MOF, 2009/10

STATUS OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

Source: RETs Data Book, AEPC,2010

SOLAR ENERGY

N

Global Horizontal Irradiance, kWh/m2/day

SWERA ProjectCenter for Energy StudiesInstitute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University

Annual Average

1:3500000

26° 26°

27° 27°

28° 28°

29° 29°

30° 30°

81°

81°

82°

82°

83°

83°

84°

84°

85°

85°

86°

86°

87°

87°

88°

88°

Legend3.85 - 4.004.00 - 4.154.15 - 4.304.30 - 4.454.45 - 4.604.60 - 4.754.75 - 4.904.90 - 5.055.05 - 5.20

100 0 100 Kilometers

Figure 1

Country Average = 4.7 kWh/m2/day

Solar Energy source is freeSolar Energy source is RenewableSolar Energy is abundant

10% tapping- 34587535000 KWh/day

Around 300 days SunshineAround 300 days Sunshine

11

SOLAR ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES

Solar Photovoltaic Technology

Solar Light Energy

Solar Heat

Energy

Solar Thermal Technology

• Solar Home System

• Solar Tuki

• Institutional solar PV system

• Solar Water pumping system

• Building integrated solar PV Systems

• Electrical vehicle charging station

• Solar Dryer• Solar Cooker• Solar Water

Heater• Solar room

heating system• Solar

Refrigeration

12

SN SERVICE % POWER

UNITS

1 Telecommunications 21.6 3,000+

2 Utility supply (centralized)

2.1 2

3 Solar Home System 71.8 75,000

4 Water supply 2.0 25

5 Aviation 0.8 45

6 Misc. 1.7 100+

Total 100

Application of PV Power by Sector Total electricity generation: 4,635 kWp; Public Call Offices 75% by PV system. Potential 8 GWh/day, if 0.01% of the total land area is used. Source: AEPC 2006

PV POWER

Pyramid International Lab. Nepal

WIND ENERGY

• The annual average energy potential is about 3.387 MWh/m2

• The potential area of wind power in the country is about 6074 sq. km with wind power density greater than 300 watt/m2

• More than 3,000 MW of electricity could be generated at 5 MW per sq km.

• The commercially viable wind potential of the country is estimated to be only about 448 MW.

BIOMASS & BIOGAS

• Biomass energy accounts for about 15% of the world’s primary energy consumption and about 38% of the primary energy consumption in developing countries (WECS 2010).

• Furthermore, biomass often accounts for more than 90% of the total rural energy supplies in developing countries

• The potential of producing biogas is about 1.9 million plants out of which 57% in Terai, 43% in hills and mountains.

• There are more than 2,000,000 biogas plants installed in various districts of Nepal.

• Biomass from waste and invasive plant species

Fossil Fuel Replacement for Petrol: Ethanol Production/ha

Cost of Production : NPR 22/l Capacity: 22000kl to replace 7300kl of petrol Annual Fossil Fuel Consumption: Petrol: 73,000kl/year

BIOFUEL PROSPECTS

1 hectare 40MT of sugar cane processing

4 MT sugar

1.6 MT molasses

352L of ethanol

2800L of ethanolFermentation

Cost of Production : NPR 43/l Without selling byproducts: NPR 32/l by selling by productsAnnual Fossil Fuel Consumption: Diesel 2,75,000kl/year

1 hectare 10 MT of seeds

2500 plants

7500kg of seed cake

3048L biodiesel

Fertilizer

384kg of Glycerol soap/ cake

transesterification

FOSSIL FUEL REPLACEMENT FOR DIESEL

Energy Policy Structure

• Periodic Development Plan: since Fifth Plan (1975-1980)

• Hydropower Development Policy 1992

• Water Resources Strategy 2002• National Water Plan 2005• Ten Year Hydropower

Development Plan 2009• Rural Energy Policy 2006• Act/Rules/Regulations