negative strategies on the china topic - nfhsasia; balance of power is now link: ceding taiwan,...
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NegativeStrategiesontheChinaTopic
RichEdwardsBaylorUniversity
2016-17NationalPolicyTopic
Resolved:TheUnitedStatesfederalgovernmentshouldsubstantiallyincreaseitseconomicand/ordiplomaticengagementwiththe
People’sRepublicofChina.
JapaneseProliferationUniqueness: U.S.standinguptoChinanowBrink:Canhappenovernight;nervous nowLink:Anyeffort(esp.military)tomakenicewithChinaImpact:Rapidproliferationandnuclearwar
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NorthKoreanNuclearStrikeUniqueness: U.S.pivottoAsia=Sino-American frictionLink:Sino-American easingoftensions causesKimJong-
untolashout;hefearslosinghisonly allyImpact:AttackonSouth Koreaescalatestonuclearwar
PoliticsUniqueness: Ifthings
continueastheyare,Trumploses
Link:MakingnicewithChina(esp.anewtrade/investmentdeal)willhandTrumpapowerfulboost
Impact:ElectionofTrump=humanrightsandmilitarydisaster.
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HegemonyGoodUniqueness:U.S.hegemony
ispresentlyunchallengedinEastAsia;balanceofpowerisnow
Link:CedingTaiwan,abandoningU.S.Navalpresence,stoppingsurveillancedisturbsbalanceofpower(perceptionlink)
Impact: Incidents intheSouthChinaSeawithChina’sneighborsescalate towar
U.S.CompetitivenessUniqueness:Nofreetrade
dealwithChinanow;theyareexcludedfromTPP
Link:TradedealwilleliminateU.S.comparativeadvantageinintellectualproperty
Impact: U.S.economyonthebrinknow;willcraterleadingtoU.S.andworldwidedepression
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RiskofConflictWithChinaUniqueness: Balanceof
powerexistsnowLink:Increasedeconomic
growthinChinameansstrongerChinesemilitarythreat
Impact:EmboldenedChinariskswarwithU.S.,leadingtoglobalconflict
CyberWarfare
Uniqueness:U.S.currentlyispreparingforcyberwar
Link:TheplanhaltspreparationforcyberwarwithChina
Impact: U.S. lackofpreparationforcyberwarfareleadstovulnerabilitytocyberattackfromRussia,NorthKorea,Iran,andterroristgroups
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SaudiRoyalFamily
Uniqueness: Oilpricesarerecoveringnow
Link:Increaseinrenewableenergy=oilpriceplummet
Impact:RecentoilpriceplungealreadyhadSaudistabilityonthebrink;anotherpricecollapse=falloftheRoyalFamilyandMideastwar
GrowthBad
Uniqueness: Chineseeconomyisslowingnow
Link:PlangivesamajorboosttoChineseeconomicgrowth
Impact:Millions ofChinese diefromair/waterpollution;kills anyhopeofcontrollingclimatechange.
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TOPICALITYCHALLENGES
Positive Inducements , Not Just Talk -- Richard Haass, (Dir., Foreign PolicyStudies, Brookings Institution) , SURVIVAL, SUMMER 2000, 113-114. To be ameaningful subject of ana lysis, the term “engagement” must refer tosomething more specif ic than a policy of “non-isolation.” As used in this article,“engagement” refers to a foreign policy strategy which depends to a signif icantdegree on positive incentives to achieve its objectives.
government should increase engagement
People’sRepublicofChina
TOPICALITYCHALLENGESgovernment should increase engagement
People’sRepublicofChina
More than 50%-- Richard Haass, (Dir., Fore ign Policy Studies, BrookingsInstitution) , SURVIVAL, SUMMER 2000, 113-114. To be a meaningful subject ofanalysis, the term “engagement”must refer to something more specific than apolicy of “non-isola tion.” As used in this article , “engagement” refers to aforeign policy strategy which depends to a s ignificant degree on positiveincentives to achieve its objectives.
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TOPICALITYCHALLENGES
Plan creates something new; does not add to that which exists:Ian Brookes, (Sr. Editor), THE CHAMBERS DICTIONARY, 10th ed.,2006, 754. Increase: Growth; increment; addition to the originalstock.
government should increase engagement
People’sRepublicofChina
TOPICALITYCHALLENGES
Action must be by the U.S. federal government itse lf, not corporations,interna tiona l organizations, or other nations -- Justin Croz ier, (Editor) , COLLINSDICTIONARY AND THESAURUS, 2005, 448. Its: Of or belonging to it.
government should increase engagement
People’sRepublicofChina
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TOPICALITYCHALLENGESgovernment should increase engagement
People’sRepublicofChina
China must participate -- MACMILLANDICTIONARY, 2015. Retrieved Apr. 25, 2016from http://www.macmillandictionary.com/us/dictionary/american/with. With: Ifone person or thing is with another or does something with them, they aretogether or they do it together.
WeshouldcontaintheriseofChina
ChinaisbidingitstimeAsChina’s economic power
grows,sowilltheriskofconflictwiththeU.S.
Gordon Chang,(Journalist, Forbes.com),CROUCHING TIGER:WHATCHINA’SMILITARISMMEANSFORTHEWORLD,2015,13.Witheachpassingday,anincreasinglyemboldened Chinaisusingitsnew-found economicpower andmilitarymighttograbterritory, violatetraderules, proliferate nuclear-weaponstechnology, support rogueregimes,cyberattackfreesocieties, flout norms,andundermine international institutions.
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CHUSTIA:TheChina-U.S.TradeandInvestmentAgreementNoriskoftradewarChineseeconomy isnotnearcollapseEngagementmerelyfinancesChina’s
authoritarianism
MichaelPillsbury, (Dir., CenteronChineseStudies, HudsonInstitute), THEHUNDRED YEARMARATHON:CHINA’SSECRETSTRATEGYTOREPLACEAMERICAASTHEGLOBALSUPERPOWER, 2015,8.RatherthantheemergenceofanAmerican-stylefreemarketeconomy,scholars areincreasinglynoting theemergenceofasystemtermed"authoritarian capitalism."AndrewNathanofColumbia University, writinginJournal ofDemocracy,callsthetransformation"authoritarian resilience."
BIT:BilateralInvestmentTreaty
DanielChow, (Prof.,Law,OhioStateU.CollegeofLaw),BOSTONUNIVERSITYINTERNATIONALLAWJOURNAL, Summer2015,425.TheCommunist PartygovernsChinaandexercisescontrol overallaspectsoftheState,including state-ownedandprivatecompanies.ThePartyendeavorsnotonlytoincreasecommercial gainbutalsotoachievestrategicnationalpolicygoals.TheState-Partymightusestate-ownedenterprises ("SOEs"),nowamongthelargestmultinational companiesintheworld, tofurther China'sownnationalstrategicinterests throughaU.S.-ChinaBIT.
BoththeU.S.andChinahaveplentyofinvestmentaccess
BITwithChinabadbecauseofSOEcontrol
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SupportChina’sInclusionintheTPP
DavidRapkin,(Prof., Emeritus, Political Science,U.Nebraska),TRANSITIONSCENARIOS:CHINAANDTHEUNITEDSTATESINTHE21ST CENTURY, 2013,146.ThelistofUScomplaints aboutChinesetradepractices islongandclassical:exportdumping;import restraints throughinspections, tariffsandquotas;governmentsubsidiesforselected typesofproduction; governmentprocurement preferencesfordomesticfirms;copyright piracy;restrictions ontheexportsofselectedrawmaterials, policiesthatfavorindigenous innovation inhightechnology;andcurrency undervaluation.
TherearegoodreasonsforexcludingChinafromtheTPP
Chinadoesn’tplaybystandardinternationaltraderules
ParisAgreement&ClimateChange
JohnMathews,(Prof.,ManagementStrategy,MacquarieU.,Australia), CHINA'SENERGYREVOLUTION,2015,7.China'scumulativeinstalled windturbine capacityrosefromjustunder1GWat2004to95GWattheendof2014,andthewindpower generation fromaround 1.3TWh in2004to156TWh in2014— bywhichtimeitwasthelargestwindpowersystemintheworld. Thiswasa100-foldexpansioninwindpower inadecade.
Chinaisalreadycommittedtoexpansionofrenewableenergy– Thiscommitmentpre-datestheParisAgreement
PresidentObama’sExecutiveOrderbasedontheParisAgreementdoesnotrequireCongressionalapproval
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SpaceCooperationChinadoesspacecooperationwithmostother
space-faringnations
TheU.S.governmenthaslittleornothingtogainbycooperatingwithChina inspace–commercializationofspaceistheorderofthedayintheU.S.
MarcoAliberti, (Fellow,European SpacePolicyInstitute), WHENCHINAGOESTOTHEMOON,2015,235.Fordetractors ofcooperation, it isalsoclearthat, intermsofrelativegains,cooperation would benefitChinesestakeholdersmorethanviceversa.Andagainfortheonesidewill spellalossfortheother inazero-sumgame.ChinadoesnotpossessanyconvincingcapabilitythatNASAlacks.Givenitsvastsuperiority overalltheother spacepowers, thereislittle thattheUnitedStatescanharvestfromcooperating withasecond-tier spaceprogramme suchasthatofBeijing.
HumanRightsinChina
Quietdialogaccomplishesnothing
Europeanapproachestolegalcapacitybuildinghavefailed
Pressureworksbetterthanengagement
Katrin Kinzelbach, (AssociateDir., GlobalPublic PolicyInstitute), THEEU’SHUMANRIGHTSDIALOGUEWITHCHINA:QUIETDIPLOMACYANDITSLIMITS,2014,196.UnliketheEU,Washingtondidnotconsent toarigidschedule foritstalksonhumanrightsandinsistedthatitwouldonlycontinue talkingaslongasBeijingliveduptothespecific agreementsthatwerenegotiated.Washingtonusedissue-linkingtoinsistthatBeijing oughttotakeitshumanrightsconcerns seriously.Incomparison tothisstrategy'ssuccess,howeverlimited, theEU'squietdiplomacyisastarkfailure.
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BMDandNorthKoreaChinahaslimitedinfluenceoverNorth
Korea’snuclearization
KimJong-unissounpredictable thatBMDisessential
ThereisalmostzeroriskofU.S.-Chinanuclearwar
ThomasChristensen, (Prof., WorldPolitics, Princeton U.&FormerDeputyAssistantSecretaryofStateforEastAsianandPacificAffairs),THECHINACHALLENGE:SHAPINGTHECHOICESOFARISINGPOWER,2015,52-53.EvenifChina, theUnitedStates,Russia,andIndiasomehowdecided toabandonalloftheir nuclearweaponsinthetwenty-firstcentury, ascenario inwhichthesestatestried toconquer eachother entirelythrough blitzkriegattacksorlongattritionalwarswould stillseemfantastic.Withnuclearweapons, thescenariosseemsimplyridiculous.
NoFirstUse(NFU)BalanceofPowerinAsiaisessentialtorestraining
China
NFUpledgeisadramaticshiftinU.S.foreignpolicythatwillupsetthebalanceofpower
AaronFriedberg, (Prof.,Politics andInternational Affairs,Princeton U.),ACONTESTFORSUPREMACY:CHINA,AMERICA,ANDTHESTRUGGLEFORMASTERYINASIA,2011,278.Despiteitsdwindling credibility, theUnited Statesshouldnotabandonthethreatofnuclear escalationaltogether bysigningontoa"nofirstuse"pledge.AssumingthatsuchapaperpromisehadanyimpactatallonPLAplanners, itwouldbetoweakendeterrence bytakingawayaresidualsourceofuncertainty aboutthepotential risksofaconventional attack.Ontheother hand,becausetheUnitedStateshasneverbeforebeenwillingtoforgotheoption ofescalation, agreeingtono-first-use wouldbecorrectly perceived byitsalliesasamajorchangeinpolicy.
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Military-to-MilitaryExchangesTherealreasonforlimitsonmilitary-to-military
exchangesisU.S.supportforTaiwan
Thiscase isreallyaboutU.S.supportforTaiwan
Chiung-Chiu Huang,(Prof.,AsianStudies, National Chengchi U.,Taiwan),CHINA'SINTERNATIONALROLES:CHALLENGING ORSUPPORTINGINTERNATIONALORDER?,2016,71.TheUSunderestimated theChinese reaction tothearmssalesissue.China's protesthaltedscheduled militaryexchanges.However,thistypeofimpediment rarelylastsformorethanafewmonths.Thefirstpostponement wasinOctober2008inresponsetothearmssalestoTaiwanscheduledontheeveofthefirstvisittoTaiwanofthehighestChinese officialcoveringTaiwanaffairs.However,military exchangeshadalreadyresumedinFebruary2000.Thesecondsuspension wasinresponse toarmssalestoTaiwaninJanuary2010,butthemediareported thatexerciseshadresumedbySeptember.
Surveillance intheSouthChinaSeaU.S.haseveryreasontomonitor Chinese
militarymovesintheSouthChinaSea–Chinarepresents asignificant threattoitsneighbors
AbandoningU.S.alliesinEastAsiawould havedireconsequences
JonathanHolslag, (Prof.,International Politics, FreeU.ofBrussels), CHINA'SCOMINGWARWITHASIA,2015,168.Chinacontinues tosanction unilateralattemptstochangetheterritorial statusquomercilessly, intercepting trawlers,sendingwarshipstocontestedwaters,andalmosttheatrically tryingtostarvealonelygroupofFilipino guards,astheir strandedshipgetsslowlyconsumed bythesaltywateroftheSouthChinaSea.
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GrandBargain:TaiwanAbandoningU.S.securitypledges
willcreateshuddersthroughoutAsia
TheU.S.hasnorighttotradeawaythesecurityofafriendlydemocracyandally
PeterNavarro,(Prof.,Economics andPublic Policy, U.California atIrvine),CROUCHING TIGER:WHATCHINA’SMILITARISMMEANSFORTHEWORLD,2015,243-244.AsforanymoralobligationofAmericatodefendTaiwananditsflourishing democracy, formerUSAssistantSecretaryofStateKurtCampbellexpresseshisownformofoutrage:IdonotbelieveitisintheUSstrategicinterest toevencontemplate nineteenth century-likedealslike:"We'llgiveyouTaiwaninexchangeforsomeother regionalsetofcircumstances."Imean,whodoesthat?
CyberEngagement
KevinPollpeter, (DeputyDir.,InstituteonGlobal Conflict andCooperation’sProject ontheStudyofInnovationandTechnologyinChina),CHINAANDCYBERSECURITY:ESPIONAGE,STRATEGY,ANDPOLITICSINTHEDIGITALDOMAIN,2015,146.Indeed,ChineseanalystsassessthattheUnited Statesholdstheadvantageincybercapabilities intermsofoverallITindustrydominance,malwaredesign,trainingofcyberforces,andcontrol ofInternet infrastructure. Acritical vulnerability forChinaisitsreliance onforeigntechnologies.UScompanieslikeApple, Microsoft, andGoogledominate theITindustry, andUSprocessor, chip,network switch,andother coretechnologies aresaidtobefaraheadofother countries.ThedominanceofthesecompaniesissaidtogivetheUnited Statesdefactoaccesstothecritical infrastructure ofother countries thatcouldbeexploited during wartime.
Cybercompetition withChinamakestheU.S.strongerandmoreprotected
ItisessentialthattheU.S.continuetoleadinpreparation forcyberwarfare– Chinaisnottheonlythreat
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ProtectingEndangeredSpecies
LizRasheed,(Editor, NYUEnvironmental LawReview),HARVARDENVIRONMENTALLAWREVIEW,November23,2015.RetrievedApr.6,2016fromhttp://harvardelr.com/2015/11/23/elrs-is-cites-endangered/. Thelowlevelsofrhino poachingduring theearly1990smaybepartlyattributable totheUnitedStates’threatofbilateral PellyAmendmentsanctions againstthefourmainconsumersofrhinoceros hornsatthetime:Yemen,SouthKorea,TaiwanandChina.
U.S.pressureworksbetterthanengagementindealingwithwildlife protection
ThePellyAmendmentthreatstoimposesanctions onnationstradinginendangeredspecieshashelped
StudentVisas
Visashavealreadybeenextended
Abandonmentofvisasrisksagreaterterroristthreat
Calum Macleod,(Staff),USATODAY,Nov.11,2014,2A.ToboostAmerica'sAsia-linkedfuture, Obamaannouncedthatthevalidityofstudent andexchangevisasforChineseapplicants willbeextendedtofiveyears,whilebusinessandtouristvisaswillbeextendedto10years.Lastyear,1.8million ChinesevisitorstotheUSAcontributed $21billion totheeconomyandsupported morethan100,000Americanjobs, hesaid.
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EnvironmentalEngagementwithChinaChina’sleadersareunwillingtoaccept
helporcriticismontheenvironment
Chinahasitsowncabinetlevelenvironmentalprotectionagency
Marte Galtung, (China Analyst,NorwegianMinistryofForeignAffairs), 49MYTHSABOUTCHINA, 2014,144.In2008,theStateEnvironmentalProtection AgencywasupgradedtotheMinistryofEnvironmental Protection. ThismeansthattheStateCouncil, China'sgovernment,nowtakesdirect responsibility forenvironmental problems.Thus,ChinaisanorganizationalstepaheadoftheUnited States,which doesnot haveacabinet-leveldepartment ofenvironmentalprotection.
Joint-U.S.ChinaActiononOverfishing
Internationalactionissuperiortobilateralactiononoverfishing