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NEC Report 2006 The Netherlands

Directive 2001/81/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2001

on national emission ceilings for certain atmospheric pollutants

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Summary

EU Directive 2001/81/EC of 23 October 2001 on national emission ceilings for certain

atmospheric pollutants (below: NEC Directive) requires member states to report to the

European Commission in 2006 on their progress in implementing the Directive. This report

(NEC Report 2006) fulfils this requirement and recently been sent to the Dutch Parliament

for information purposes as well as will be sent to the European Commission.

The NEC Directive sets national emission ceilings, or maximum limits for sulphur dioxide

(SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and

ammonia (NH3). These limits, set in Brussels in 2001, are to be attained by 2010.

The Emission Ceilings Acidification and Long-Range Air Pollution Report 2002 (2002 NEC

Report) was used in 2003 to draft an implementation document entitled Erop of eronder

(Make or break). Both were presented to the Dutch parliament and the European

Commission. Erop of eronder set out a plan of action for meeting the national emission

ceilings by 2010.

The NEC Report 2006 takes as its starting point a recent estimate by the MNP, the

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Haalbaarheid nationale emissieplafonds in

2010 (Attainability of National Emission Ceilings by 2010; June 2006), which is based

exclusively on policy that has already been implemented. Added to this are the projected

effects of policy currently in the pipeline and the most recent information about oil prices and

emissions from heavy goods vehicle traffic. The resulting adjusted estimate shows all the

national emission ceilings coming within range in 2010 and fuhrter, but only if all policies as

yet in the pipeline are definitely implemented. This will require considerable effort on the part

of the Netherlands both as on the part of the European Union.

The conclusion that all the national emission ceilings can be met by 2010 discounts the fact

that the traffic emissions forecast excludes the effects of ‘cycle-bypassing’ (difference

between emissions measured in the test cycle and actual emissions), which would add

another 10 kilotonnes of NOx emissions. This is a problem in several countries and the

Netherlands is of the opinion that Europe-wide agreements should be made to resolve it.

Consistent with its earlier observations to the European Commission, the Netherlands will

address cycle-bypassing in the report, but exclude it from its evaluation of the country’s

compliance with the national emission ceilings.

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Additional measures may be needed to ensure that national emission ceilings are met in the

event of shortfalls in SO2, NOx and NH3 emission reductions (see chapter 3) and to create

scope for growth after 2010. However, in view of the recent parliamentary elections (22

November 2006), it will be impossible for the outgoing government to reach agreement on a

package of measures with all the sectors involved (industry, agriculture, transport). The

decision on additional measures that may be necessary will fall to the new government,

which is expected to take office at the beginning of 2007.

Summary:

MNP estimate, effects of new information and ‘pipeline policy’, and residual policy

shortfall

Substance MNP

estimate

2010

New

information

Pipeline

policy

Adjusted estimate NEC

ceiling

Remaning

policy

shortfall

SO2 66 0 -15 51 50 1

Excl. deduction for

cycle-bypassing

269 to 265

5 to 9

NOx 277

- 7 to -11 - 1

Incl. deduction for

cycle-bypassing

259 to 255

260 none

NH3 126 0 0 126 128 none

NMVOC 162 + 0 to +1 0 162 to 163 185 none

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Contents

Summary.................................................................................................................................................2 Contents................................................................................................................................................44 1. Political and administrative procedures for drafting the implementation document.....................55 2. Policy and measures ....................................................................................................................88

Measures in the pipeline ...............................................................................................................1212 Possible additional measures........................................................................................................1212

3. Emissions and projections........................................................................................................1313 Introduction....................................................................................................................................1313 MNP Estimate................................................................................................................................1313 Pipeline policy................................................................................................................................1515 Trends............................................................................................................................................1516 Remaining policy shortfalls: conclusions.......................................................................................1617 Trend analysis ...............................................................................................................................1818 MNP evaluation of NEC Report 2006............................................................................................1919

5. Costs and benefits of policy and measures .............................................................................2121 Costs..............................................................................................................................................2121 Benefits for health and nature .......................................................................................................2121

5. Evaluation and monitoring........................................................................................................2323 Literature ...........................................................................................................................................2424

Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment The Hague, The Netherlands December 2006

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1. Political and administrative procedures for drafting the implementation

document

Introduction

In 2001 the Netherlands agreed to comply with emission ceilings for sulphur dioxide (SO2),

nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and ammonia

(NH3) under the European National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive by 2010 in order to

abate acidification and air pollution. Achieving the national emission ceilings in 2010 (and

later years) is very important to the Netherlands because it will have a positive effect on air

quality and therefore on health and the environment. With regard to air quality, countries

wishing to derogate from EU air quality requirements (in this case, particulate matter and

NO2) must report to the Commission on the implementation status of the national emission

ceilings.

Previous reports on Dutch implementation of the NEC Directive

In 2002 the Netherlands submitted its official Emission Ceilings Acidification and Long-range

Air Pollution Report to the European Union. That report was the basis of Erop of Eronder

(Make or Break), the 2003 implementation document on emission ceilings. Both were

presented to the Dutch parliament and the European Commission.

Budget Day Package

In response to the air quality problems in the Netherlands (e.g. NO2), the Dutch government

announced an extensive package of measures in its Budget Day Letter to the Dutch

Parliament in September 2005 (Septemberbrief). The package comprised a range of subsidy

schemes for fitting particulate filters in cars, heavy duty vehicles and buses already on the

road, encouraging manufacturers to place particulate filters in new cars, bringing forward the

introduction of clean cars and heavy duty vehicles (EURO 5 and V) and allowing

municipalities to set up no-go zones for heavy duty vehicles. The package is worth

approximately €900 million over 10 years. In the summer of 2006 another €150 million was

made available for local air-quality measures, bringing the total to over €1 billion. The whole

Budget Day Package is currently being implemented. The measures are focused on air

quality, but will also help facilitate compliance with the national emission ceilings (particularly

NOx). The relevant measures are described in chapter 2.

New NEC Report 2006

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This report examines whether or not the Netherlands is on schedule to meet the national

emission ceilings. It is based on the long-range calculations made by the Environmental

Assessment Agency (MNP) for the four NEC pollutants for the period ending 2010, plus an

extrapolated forecast for 2020. The MNP report Haalbaarheid nationale emissieplafonds in

2010 (Attainability of National Emission Ceilings by 2010; see annex), which provides basic

data on emissions estimates, supplementary options and effects was presented to the Dutch

parliament on 29 June 2006 and will be sent to the European Commission as an annex to

this document. The MNP based the calculations in its report exclusively on policy for which

concrete agreements have been established.

The Netherlands’ new implementation document, NEC Report 2006, is based on the MNP

figures. Policies that are currently in the pipeline and the most relevant emission trends were

also incorporated in the report. With the policy set out in this report, the national emission

ceilings will come within reach in 2010.

Other possible measures

Additional measures may be needed to ensure that national emission ceilings are met in the

event of unsatisfactory results for SO2, NOx and NH3 (see chapter 3) and to create scope for

growth after 2010. However, parliamentary elections have been held earlier than expected

(22 November 2006), making it impossible for the outgoing government to reach agreement

with all the sectors involved (industry, agriculture and traffic) on packages of measures. The

decision on additional measures will therefore fall to the new government, which is expected

to take office at the beginning of 2007.

Connection with European pollution source policy

European agreements about pollution source policy level the playing field but also carry risks

that could interfere with efforts to comply with the national emission ceilings. Less than

ambitious agreements on – for instance – Euro V, the reviewed IPPC Directive and the

reviewed Large Combustion Plants Directive lead to greater policy shortfalls in the member

states. In this respect, the Netherlands sets great store by the reference to the statement

made by the Netherlands for entry in the minutes of the European Environment Council of 23

October 2006 . During discussion of the draft Directive on ambient air quality, many member

states endorsed the importance of ambitious EU pollution source policy.

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Stakeholder involvement

In the Netherlands stakeholders are involved in the implementation of the NEC Directive in

several ways. A workshop on the outcomes of the NEC reports was held on 28 April and 24

November 2006 for the relevant sectors.

A working group was established to discuss the measures for the industrial sector. The VNG

(Netherlands Association of Municipalities) and the IPO (Association of Provincial

Authorities) participated in the working group. In addition, the government is working on an

agreement with the VNCI (Netherlands Chemical Industry Association), the VNPI

(Netherlands Petroleum Industry Association) and EnergieNed (umbrella organisation of

electricity producers), and has discussed a draft version of the report and the consequences

for the sectors with these organisations and the VNO/NCW (Confederation of Netherlands

Industry and Employers). The government is also on going in discussieon with the industrial

sector about progress in NOx emissions trading.

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2. Policy and measures

In assessing whether the Netherlands will meet the national emission ceilings, the MNP took

established, or ‘concrete’, policy as its starting point. The MNP defined concrete policy as

policy that is sufficiently operational, accompanied by instruments, funded, laid down in an

official document and for which powers have been granted. Below is an overview of

established policy for traffic, agriculture and other sectors (industry, energy and refineries;

waste treatment; trade, services and government; construction; and consumers). The MNP

estimate gives information about the impact of these measures.

Table 2.1 Overview of traffic sector policy

Road traffic Policy

Cars and light duty

vehicles

EU emission standards for new vehicles:

- up to and including Euro 4 (from 2005/2006)

- EC proposal Euro 5 concrete

Cars

BPM (car and motorcycle); purchase tax differentiation by

relative energy efficiency (in accordance with the energy

label)

Het Nieuwe Rijden I and II (National ecodriving

programmes )

Het Nieuwe Rijden III

Light duty vehicles Limitation of BPM and MRB (motor vehicle tax)

concession for grey commercial registration number

plates from 1 July 2005

Heavy duty

vehicles

EU emissions standards for new diesel engines:

- up to and including Euro 5 (from 2008/2009)

Budget Day Package: Euro IV/Euro V incentives

Motorcycles

EU emissions standards for new motorcycles:

- phase 1 (from 1999)

- phase 2 (from 2003) and phase 3 (from 2006)

Mopeds EU emissions standards for new mopeds:

- phase 1 (from 1999)

- phase 2 (from 2002)

-

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Non-road traffic Policy

Inland vessels

Emissions standards for new marine engines:

- phase 1 CCR (Central Commission for

Navigation on the Rhine) (from 1 January 2002)

- phase 2 CCR (from 1 January 2007)

- phase 1 EU (from 2006 till 2008)

Mobile equipment

EU emissions standards for new diesel engines:

- phase 1 and 2 (from 2000 till 2004)

- phase 3a and 3b (from 2006 till 2012)

- phase 4 (from 2014)

Diesel trains EU emissions standards for new diesel engines:

- phase 3a and 3b (from 2006 till 2012)

Aviation ICAO emissions standards for new jet engines:

- up to and including 2003

Ocean-going

vessels

IMO emissions standards for new marine engines:

- Marpol Annex VI - phase 1 (from 1 January

2000)

EU standardisation max. sulphur level

- at sea (North Sea): max. 1.5%

- in ports: max. 0.1%

General Policy

Road traffic

Mobility Policy Document key planning decision III (€14.5

billion for road construction + accelerated road

construction charge)

Promote use of biofuels (2%)

Max. sulphur level standard:

- 50 ppm from 1 January 2005

- 10 ppm from 1 January 2009

Non-road traffic Max. sulphur level standard:

- 2000 ppm from 1 January 2000

- 1000 ppm from 1 January 2008

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Table 2.2. Overview of agriculture sector policy

Agriculture Policy

Compulsory use of manure storage covers

Compulsory low-emission application of manure to land

Low-emission livestock housing (order in council on

livestock housing)

Use standards (manure policy)

BEES1 to reduce NOx emissions in glasshouse

horticulture

Table 2.2. Policy overview for other sectors

Sector Substance Policy

Industry, energy

and refineries;

waste treatment

NOx

SO2

NOx emissions trading for companies larger

than 20 MWth (combustion emissions: 40

g/GJ by 2010, process emissions: 46%

reduction by 2010 relative to 1995 level)

BEES for companies smaller than 20 MWth

Dutch Emissions Guidelines (NER) (ovens

and dryers)

IPPC-BAT

IPPC-BAT

BEES for combustion plants and refineries

NeR for non-BEES plants (iron and steel

production)

Chemicals and

base metal

SO2 Integrated Environmental Target (IMT):

90% reduction by 2010 relative to 1985 level

Refineries

SO2 Transition from oil fired to gas fired in 2007

Refineries

PM10 Transition from oil fired to gas fired in 2007

(with SO2)

1 Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree

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Industry, energy

and

refineries;

waste treatment;

trade, services and

government;

construction

NMVOC All measures – save those for refineries –

from the National NMVOC Reduction Plan

for industry, trade, services, government,

and construction. The Solvents Decree and

the Voluntary Agreements on Working

Conditions

Trade, services

and government

NOx Type approval for central heating

installations

BEES

Consumers

NOx Type approval for central heating

installations

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Measures in the pipeline

The MNP emissions estimate excluded the effects of policy in preparation. For example, far-

reaching SO2 agreements have been made with the refineries which, if implemented

successfully, have the potential to reduce emissions by approximately 11 kilotonnes. In

addition, an agreement has been concluded with the electricity producers umbrella

organisation (EnergieNed) about achieving the sectoral SO2 target of 13.5 kilotonnes (now

laid down in a draft voluntary agreement). The Dutch government assumes that this

voluntary agreement will enter into effect soon and reduce SO2 emissions from electricity

production by 4 kilotonnes by 2010. The two agreements together have the potential to

generate a 15 kilotonne reduction in SO2 emissions by 2010.

There have been several policy developments in the traffic sector recently which will affect

NOx and particulate matter emissions, but which have not been taken into account by the

MNP. For example, the 2007 Tax Plan has a fixed excise rate for natural gas, making it a

more attractive vehicle fuel. In addition, the particulate filter subsidy scheme for heavy duty

vehicles is being broadened to include Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) systems and the

APK (periodic compulsory motor vehicle test) will be tightened for diesel cars in particular.

Based on a cautious estimate, these three measures should lower NOx emissions by

approximately 1 kilotonne by 2010.

Possible additional measures

The conclusion that the national emission ceilings can be attained by 2010 does not take

into account potential shortfalls in SO2, NOx and NH3 reductions (see chapter 3). Additional

measures may be needed to ensure compliance with national emission ceilings in the event

of such shortfalls and to create scope for growth after 2010. However, because of the recent

parliamentary elections (22 November 2006) it will be impossible for the outgoing

government to reach agreement on a package of measures with all the sectors involved

(industry, agriculture, traffic). The decision on additional measures that may be necessary

will fall to the new government, which is expected to take office at the beginning of 2007.

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3. Emissions and projections

Introduction

The provisional emissions figures for 2005 and the definitive emissions figures for 2004 will

be sent to the European Commission separately in the usual format at the end of the year.

The EU NEC Report implements the provisions in articles 6-8 of the EU National Emissions

Ceilings Directive. This chapter examines whether the objectives will be met by 2010 and on

what assumptions the conclusions are based. It is important to look at other factors in

addition to the MNP’s calculations. That is why those calculations are supplemented with the

effects of some recent major policy developments and several important new insights that

the MNP did not take into account in its computations.

MNP Estimate

In its report ‘Haalbaarheid nationale emissieplafonds in 2010’ the MNP provides new

emissions prognoses for the four NEC pollutants (plus particulate matter) for the period

ending 2010, plus an outlook extrapolated to 2020. The report shows emissions of the four

substances developing as follows (in kilotonnes):

Table 3.1 Realised emissions, estimates, national emission ceilings and Gothenburg

ceilings

Substance 1990 2000 2003 2004 MNP estimate 2010 *) NEC ceiling

SO2 192 73 64 65 66 ± 10% 50

NOx 582 419 398 379 277 ± 15% 260

NH3 250 152 135 134 126 ± 15% 128

NMVOC 467 236 188 181 162 ± 20% 185 *) Colour coding (by the MNP): red means ‘unlikely’, yellow is ‘50/50 chance’ and green is

‘likely’. The MNP restricted its analysis to what it terms ‘concrete policy’; policy still in the

pipeline was not taken into account.

As the table shows, emissions of NEC pollutants have decreased dramatically since 1990.

Nevertheless, all sectors concerned will have to make a considerable effort to achieve the

national emission ceilings by 2010. The MNP estimate is based exclusively on established

policy. The Netherlands would emphasise that in several sectors (including industry) the

required policy is still in the pipeline and, though it will have an impact before 2010, was

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excluded from the MNP’s analysis. However, where there is sufficient certainty about such

policy being adopted, it should be included in the assessment of the attainability of the

national emission ceilings by 2010. Below is what the Netherlands considers to be a realistic

estimate of the attainability of the national emission ceilings by 2010 for each pollutant.

SO2

The national emission ceiling for sulphur dioxide is 50 kilotonnes. The MNP estimates that

sulphur dioxide emissions will reach 66 kilotonnes in 2010, exceeding the limit by 16

kilotonnes. However, the MNP has not yet considered important supplementary policies

which are currently in the pipeline for the industry, energy and refineries sector (see the

section on pipeline policy).

NOx

The national emission ceiling for nitrogen oxides is 260 kilotonnes. The MNP estimates that

NOx emissions will reach 277 kilotonnes in 2010, exceeding the limit by 17 kilotonnes. This

is primarily due to shortfalls in the industry, energy and refineries sector and in the traffic

sector. Emissions by trade, services, government, construction and agriculture are higher

than was assumed in Erop of eronder. The culprits in the latter two sectors are primarily the

older CHP generators and biomass-fuelled plants in use, which emit relatively high levels of

NOx.

In practice more NOx is emitted by traffic, and heavy goods vehicles in particular, than a

standard test cycle would suggest. The practice of cycle-bypassing, which leads to

anomalous emissions estimates, was addressed in Erop of eronder and has been

communicated repeatedly to the European Commission (e.g. in the covering letter of 27

January 2004 accompanying the NEC Report 2003 (final version) and 2004 (provisional

version)). Since the test cycle is set by the EU, the Netherlands assumes that these flawed

forecasts will have to be dealt with at EU level and omitted from the evaluation of

compliance with the national emission ceilings. Atlast some supplementary policy has not

yet been taken into account (see under Pipeline Policy).

NMVOC

The national emission ceiling for NMVOC is 185 kilotonnes. The MNP estimates emissions

at 162 kilotonnes in 2010, but this will require strict implementation of the national NMVOC

reduction plan (Nationaal Reductieplan NMVOS).

NH3

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The national emission ceiling for ammonia is 128 kilotonnes. The MNP forecasts emissions

of 126 kilotonnes in 2010. The measurements used when the national emission ceiling was

adopted are different from those used in the MNP’s current forecast. This is the result of

changed assumptions concerning various types of land application of manure and the Dutch

bovine population. Uncertainties abound with regard to ammonia emissions. Emissions

might be higher in 2010 than is currently assumed because of the ‘ammonia gap’, the

difference between modelling results and measured emissions. However, measures are

being taken to cut ammonia emissions. One example is the dairy sector’s urea target of 20

mg per litre of milk by 2010. Another important measure is the use of multi-pollutant air filters

in animal housing. The Dutch government is currently pushing for large-scale introduction of

these filters on poultry and pig farms.

Pipeline policy

The MNP excluded the effects of policy in preparation from its emissions estimate. Examples

of such policies include far-reaching SO2 agreements made with the refineries which, if

implemented successfully, have the potential to reduce emissions by approximately 11

kilotonnes. An agreement was also concluded with EnergieNed, the electricity producers

umbrella organisation, about achieving its sectoral SO2 target of 13.5 kilotonnes, which has

meanwhile been laid down in a draft voluntary agreement. The Netherlands assumes that

this agreement will enter into force soon and reduce SO2 emissions from electricity

production by 4 kilotonnes by 2010. The two agreements together have the potential to

generate a 15 kilotonne reduction in SO2 emissions by 2010.

There have been several policy developments in the traffic sector recently which will affect

NOx and particulate matter emissions, but which have not been taken into account by the

MNP. For example, the 2007 Tax Plan includes a fixed excise duty for natural gas to make it

a more attractive vehicle fuel. In addition, the particulate filter subsidy scheme for heavy duty

vehicles is being broadened to include Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) systems and the

APK (periodic compulsory motor vehicle test) is to be tightened, especially for diesel cars.

Based on a cautious estimate, these three measures should lower NOx emissions by

approximately 1 kilotonne by 2010.

Trends

Two important new factors will most likely reduce the policy shortfall with respect to NOx.

The first factor is the higher price of oil. The second is that heavy duty vehicle traffic is

growing more slowly than was assumed in the MNP scenario.

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Higher oil price

The MNP scenario is based on an oil price that is much lower than the current price

(September 2006: approximately €65/barrel). It seems likely that the oil price is set to remain

at a higher level than the €25/barrel used in the analysis. The Dutch government asked the

MNP to do a calculation based on higher prices: approx. €50/barrel in 2005 gradually

declining to €38/barrel by 2010. The MNP determined that a higher oil price would lead to a

reduction in NOx emissions of over 2 kilotonnes from stationary sources and 1 kilotonne from

road traffic. However, higher oil prices could potentially cause a slight rise in SO2 emissions

of approximately 1 kilotonne above the expected level as a result of electricity producers

switching to coal. These emissions will not actually occur, though, because an SO2 ceiling

has been agreed with the energy production sector. Oil prices are expected to have little if

any effect on the other NEC Directive pollutants. With oil currently at €65/barrel, the MNP

estimate of the impact of higher oil prices is probably on the cautious side. Nevertheless, not

wishing to incorporate the full benefit of higher oil prices in its calculations, the Netherlands

will use the MNP estimates based on a price of €50/barrel now, declining to €38/barrel in

2010, to carry out its trend analysis.

Reduction in heavy duty vehicle traffic

As 2010 nears, it is becoming ever more important to look not only at the outcomes of

scenario calculations but also at trends in emissions indicators, such as vehicle kilometres

and fuel consumption. Comparing a current trend with a scenario calculation gives a good

impression of the value that can be attached to the latter. A noticeable development in the

traffic sector is that the increase in kilometres driven by heavy duty vehicles is clearly lower

than the scenario forecasts. Growth rates in other traffic categories deviate from the

forecasts to a lesser degree. Based on these developments, NOx emissions caused by road

traffic will be 4 to 8 kilotonnes lower in 2010 than the MNP scenario projects. NMVOC

emissions will probably be between 0 and 1 kilotonne higher, primarily because the growth

in motorcycle ownership is greater than expected. The slower rate of growth in heavy duty

vehicle traffic is having an impact on cycle-bypassing. The MNP scenario projects a 12

kilotonne reduction, while the Dutch government forecasts a decrease of about 10

kilotonnes. Dutch policy objectives for the other sectors are based on the MNP scenario, but

with higher oil prices, as this is the best predictor for emissions development in those

sectors.

Remaining policy shortfalls: conclusions

The adjusted estimate incorporating the effects of policy which is in the pipeline, and has not

been considered by the MNP, and other new information, considerably reduce the policy

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shortfall for NOx and SO2. Table 3.2 shows that the Netherlands has a policy shortfall of

about 1 kilotonne for SO2 and 5 to 9 kilotonnes for NOx. Because this last shortfall exclude

the impact of cycle-bypassing, which is clearly an EU-level problem, the Netherlands is of

the opinion that this anomalous development in NOx emissions (approx. 10 kilotonnes)

should be resolved by means of European agreements. Therefore, the Netherlands has

disregarded these emissions in its assessment of whether it will succeed in attaining the

national emission ceilings. As a result, the policy shortfall for NOx is zero or less than zero

for the Netherlands. It appears very likely that the other ceilings will also be attained by 2010

with the policy now in place or in preparation.

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Table 3.2 MNP estimate, effects of new information and pipeline policy and

remaining policy shortfall

Substance MNP

estimate

2010

New

information

Pipeline

policy

Adjusted estimate NEC

ceiling

Remaining

policy

shortfall

SO2 66 0 -15c) 51 50 1

Excl. deduction for

cycle-bypassing

269 to 265

5 to 9

NOx 277

- 7 to -11 a) - 1d)

Incl. deduction for

cycle-bypassing

259 to 255

260 none

NH3 126 0 0 126 128 none

NMVOC 162 + 0 to +1 b) 0 162 to 163 185 none

a) comprising:

I. higher oil price: -3 kilotonnes;

II. trend changes in road traffic: -4 to -8 kilotonnes.

a) due to the anomalous trends in heavy duty vehicle traffic, the forecast for the

NMVOC emission level in 2010 must be raised by 0 to 1 kilotonne;

b) reduction resulting from two voluntary agreements with industry (refineries and power

stations);

c) reduction resulting from incentives to use natural gas as engine fuel, expansion of

subsidy scheme for retrofitting particulate filters onto heavy duty vehicles and

tightening up APK environmental requirements for diesel cars.

Trend analysis

As the target year, 2010, approaches, the time for taking additional measures effectively

decreases and the need for a reliable assessment of progress in attaining the national

emission ceilings increases. Now that 2010 is close at hand, a trend analysis can provide a

more reliable forecast of 2010 emissions – and therefore the potential policy shortfall – than

an assessment based solely on a scenario study, which is primarily useful for long-term

policy planning. The government has therefore decided not to base its emissions forecasts

for 2010 exclusively on a scenario analysis, but will also use trend analyses, taking as its

starting point the most recent year for which there is reliable data.

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MNP evaluation of NEC Report 2006

The MNP evaluated a draft version of the NEC Report 2006 in its letter of 20 October 2006

(119/2006 LED/RM/kvd; see annex). In its letter, the MNP responded to the Dutch

government’s assumptions. For the most part, the MNP supports the policy line taken in the

report. For example, it underscores the need to establish a trend analysis for the period up

to 2010, which would produce a more accurate picture of emissions in the near future.

However, the MNP has a number of reservations about incorporating the trends and the

expected effect of measures (primarily on NOx and SO2) for the period in question. This is

mainly because the measures have not yet been implemented and are therefore not

‘concrete’ in the MNP’s opinion.

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4. Geographical distribution of emissions

No significant changes have occurred in the geographical distribution of emissions in the

Netherlands since the last report. However, the MNP updated the geographical distribution

of traffic emissions for its computations for the generic concentration (GCN) maps. The most

noticeable effect of the update can be seen in the NOx concentrations, but there is no

significant impact on the national averages. Figure 4.1 illustrates the impact on several

urban centres. Utrecht and, to a lesser extent, Eindhoven show a reduction (-2.2 ppb and -

0.4 ppb respectively), while the concentrations calculated for The Hague and Leiden are

higher (+1.2 ppb).

Figure 4.1. Effect of updating the geographical distribution of traffic emissions on the

contribution of traffic to long-range NOx and primary PM10 concentrations, calculated

on the basis of average long-range meteorological modelling. ‘Old’ indicates the

spatial distribution around 1994 and ‘new’ the distribution around 2002.

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5. Costs and benefits of policy and measures

Costs

In addressing the costs for the Netherlands, it is important to set out the costs of the Budget

Day Package. The Budget Day Package comprises the measures announced in the letter of

20 September 2005 from the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment

(VROM) to the Dutch Parliament, containing an overview of the air quality strategy (see

chapter 1). This package of measures is primarily aimed at compliance with the air-quality

requirements and, at the same time, contributes significantly to meeting the national

emission ceilings (especially for NOx). The measures are largely financed (€400 million) from

the Dutch economic structure enhancement fund (FES). Another €160 million is reserved in

the traffic emissions policy document (excluding fuels); €320 million in the mobility policy

document and €32 million in the urban renewal investment budget (ISV) for local measures

aimed at improving air quality. An additional amount of €150 million was made available this

summer for local air-quality measures, bringing the total sum to over €1 billion. The MNP

evaluated the Budget Day Package and sent its report (Beoordeling van het

Prinsjesdagpakket, Aanpak Luchtkwaliteit 2005) to the European Commission and the Dutch

parliament. The annex of this report contains descriptions of, and budget indications for,

each measure.

The MNP study on the attainability of national emission ceilings by 2010 provides

information about the cost-effectiveness of possible supplementary policy measures (see

also chapter 2) for meeting the national emission ceilings. As stated above, the decision on

whether additional measures are necessary will fall to the new government, which is

expected to take office at the beginning of 2007.

Benefits for health and nature

Health

With regard to the NEC pollutants, exposure to ozone is the biggest problem at present.

According to the MNP, current policy will bring about an average reduction in the

concentration of NOx (main cause of ozone) of 4% between 2005 and 2010. A reduction in

NOx of up to 10% by 2010 can be expected if the national emission ceilings are attained, the

Budget Day Package is fully implemented and all Member States meet their national

emission ceilings.

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Nature

At present, approximately 90% of nature areas in the Netherlands are exposed to

excessively high acidification and nitrogen levels. However, this overexposure is declining

rapidly. According to the MNP, if the Netherlands meets the national emission ceilings by

2010 the deposition of acidifying pollutants and nitrogen will decrease by several percentage

points, increasing the number of protected nature areas not suffering from excess nitrogen

deposition from 15% currently to approximately 25% in 2010. The percentage of protected

nature area where acidification is no longer a problem will rise from 10% to approximately

15% in 2010.

23

5. Evaluation and monitoring

MNP’s role

The MNP evaluated the main points of this NEC report as described in chapter 4. In

addition, the MNP issues an annual Milieubalans (Environmental Balance) as required by

the Environmental Management Act . The Environmental Balance is based in part on the

annual emissions registration kept by the National Institute of Public Health and the

Environment (RIVM). It describes the state of the environment, the impact policy has had on

it, and unresolved problems and policy dilemma’s. As a rule, the report is issued in May to

allow time for the conclusions to be incorporated into the annual budget, which is presented

on the third Tuesday in September (Budget Day. In recent years, the Environmental Balance

has focused heavily on meeting the national emission ceilings and the air-quality objectives.

Periodic progress reports for the House of Representatives

The national emission ceilings and air-quality objectives receive considerable political

attention. The media have focused in on air quality – and more specifically, on particulate

matter – due to its impact on health and the fact that several construction projects in the

Netherlands have been halted because they would have caused air-quality targets to be

exceeded. Pursuing compliance with the national emission ceilings has had a positive effect

on ambient air quality and, as a result, on health and nature. The draft Air Quality Directive

requires countries requesting derogation of the European air-quality requirements for

particulate matter and NO2 to include information about the implementation status of the

national emission ceilings in their air-quality plan. This topic will remain a focal point of

political interest and the Dutch parliament will be informed regularly of how the policy is

developing.

24

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25

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