Near-Term Solutions for Mitigation of Carbon Dioxide

CARB SymposiumMarch 5, 2007

Arthur H. Rosenfeld, CommissionerCalifornia Energy Commission

(916) 654-4930ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US

http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html

or just Google “Art Rosenfeld”

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Historical

Projected Business as Usual

To Meet AB 32 Goal

CO2 Emissions in California: Historical and Projected

+1.2%/yr

-0.9%/yr

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Energy Intensity in the United States 1949 - 2005

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0) If intensity dropped at pre-1973 rate of 0.4%/year

Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1%/year)

$ 1 T

$1.7T

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Energy Consumption in the United States 1949 - 2005

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$ 1.7 Trillion

$ 1.0 Trillion

New Physical Supply = 25 Q

Avoided Supply = 70 Quads in 2005

If E/GDP had dropped 0.4% per year

Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1% per year)

70 Quads per year saved or avoided corresponds to 1 Billion cars off the road

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Environmental Equivalent of Avoiding 70 Quads

70 Quads = 33 Mbod (Million barrels of oil per day)

= 40% of World oil production of 80 Mbod

70 Quads = 1 Billion cars off the road, impressive since there are only 600 million cars on the road

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How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency?

Easiest to tease out is cars

– In the early 1970s, only 14 miles per gallons

– Now about 21 miles per gallon

– If still at 14 mpg, we’d consume 75 billion gallons more and pay $225 Billion more at 2006 prices

– But we still pay $450 Billion per year

– If California wins the ”Pavley” suit, and it is implemented nationwide, we’ll save another $150 Billion per year

Commercial Aviation improvements save another $50 Billion per year Appliances and Buildings are more complex

– We must sort out true efficiency gains vs. structural changes (from smokestack to service economy).

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How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency (cont’d)?

Some examples of estimated savings in 2006 based on 1974 efficiencies minus 2006 efficiencies

Beginning in 2007 in California, reduction of “vampire” or stand-by losses

– This will save $10 Billion when finally implemented, nation-wide

Out of a total $700 Billion, a crude summary is that 1/3 is structural, 1/3 is from transportation, and 1/3 from buildings and industry.

Billion $

Space Heating 40Air Conditioning 30Refrigerators 15Fluorescent Tube Lamps 5Compact Fluorescent Lamps 5Total 95

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Index (1972 = 1.00) of U.S. Energy Use, GDP, Energy Intensity and Carbon Dioxidelast 10-year CO2 growth = 1.3% per year

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e/gdp

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CO2 (combustion)1.37

2.71

1.33 (est.)

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Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 2001 (Fossil Fuel Combustion Only)

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intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar)

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S. Korea

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Energy Intensity -- California and the United States

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California down to 46% of 1973 intensity

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Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person) (2005 to 2008 are forecast data)

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∆= 4,000kWh/yr

= $110/capita

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US (1) dotted lines denote proposed standards(2) MPG = miles per gallon

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Comparison of Fuel Economy – Passenger Vehicles

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Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards

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Appliance Standards

Building Standards

Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of

~1% of electric bill

~18% of Annual Electricity Use in IOU areas in 200320 MtCO2

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California Must Expand CEC Staff for Standards

California spends ~$1B/year on EE and Renewables to reduce electricity use by ~1%/year,

But CEC Standards Office has only 14 staff ($2M/year) to accelerate building and appliance standards, and thus reduce use by ~1/2%/year.

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Figure 8Comparison of EE Program Costs to Supply Generation Costs

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Base Load Generation Shoulder Generation Peak Generation

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California IOU’s Investment in Energy Efficiency

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Profits decoupled from sales

Performance Incentives

Market Restructuring

Crisis

IRP2% of 2004

IOU Electric Revenues

Public Goods Charges

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What about Public Utilities – the Other 25% ?

Existing law already requires that IOU electric and gas utilities regulated by the CPUC shall:

1. Meet resource needs through all available energy efficiency and demand reduction resources that are cost-effective, reliable, and feasible and

2. Set energy efficiency goals

AB 2021 (Levine, 2006) now requires that Public Utilities shall follow similar programs and goals, supervised by the CEC

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Non-Combustion (net)15%

Industry Petroleum

8%

Transportation Petroleum

41%

Buildings natural gas7%

Industry electricity

6%

Industry natural gas7%

Buildings electricity

16%

22%

14%

Emissions of CO2 in California by End Use in 2004

Total Emissions = 490 Million metric tons CO2 equivalent

Source: Energy Efficiency in California and the United States -- Chang, Rosenfeld, McAuliffe

http://www.energy.ca.gov/2007publications/CEC-999-2007-007/CEC-999-2007-007.PDF

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Mil

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etri

c T

on

s C

arb

on

Dio

xid

e E

qu

iva

len

t

Historical

Projected Business as Usual

To Meet AB 32 Goal

CO2 Emissions in California: Historical and Projected

+1.2%/yr

-0.9%/yr

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Energy Efficiency, 17%

Renewable Energy, 10%

Cleaner Power Plants, 9%

Clean Cars, 28%

Renewable Fuels, 2%

Smart Growth, 15%

Water Efficiency, 1%

Forestry, 20%

Other Strategies , 4%

Strategies for Meeting California’s CO2 Goals in 2020

Total Reductions = 174 Million metric Tons CO2 equivalent

i.e. 30% of projected 2020 Business As Usual CO2 emissions

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2011 Energy Efficiency Goals for the IOUs

CPUC OIR to implement 2009-2011 energy efficiency goals

– Portfolio development over the next few months

– Should support “significant, bold progress toward measurable market penetration goals”

– Proposed new measures:1. Conversion of general purpose lighting to high efficiency by 2017

2. A specific % of residential construction to exceed 2008 Title 24 by 35% and thereby set new levels for Title 24 updates in 2011

3. A specific % of existing commercial building to improve energy efficiency by 20% (through benchmarking)

4. A specific penetration of 80%-efficient gas water heaters (SEGWHAI) by 2011 and beyond

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Good Practice

Lighting Space Heating

Space Cooling and Ventilation Water Heating

Miscellaneous Not Submetered

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Lighting Retrofit

Good Practice

Electricity End Use Intensity (kWh/ft2-year)

Electricity EUI

Before

After

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Title 20 Appliance Standards

Lighting

– 5% improvement in incandescent lamps already underway

– Eventually, a fleet average of all lighting, measured in lumens/watt• Moving toward very limited use of incandescent bulbs and T-12s

Reductions in Stand-by losses also underway

– Currently running 10% of residential use Clothes washers. In CA, 29% of electr & 30% of nat gas water.

– Less water use leads to reduced energy use

– Department of Energy is considering California petition for waiver of rather weak federal standard

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Title 24 – Building Standards

White roofs already required in T-24 2005 for ‘flat’ roofs Cool colored roofs will be required in 2008 updates

– Possible utility incentive programs to go beyond colored roof all the way to white

California Solar Initiative. Don’t put expensive PV on a new home which is optimized for relatively cheap grid electricity.

– Rebates will require that new homes beat Title 24 by at least 15%

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Public Interest Energy Research

Cool colored paints– Not only for use in roofs– But, also on cars

• Reduce fuel use by 2% (of ~100 MtCO2 for gasoline)• Can reduce first costs by reducing AC system size

Working with the EPA to deliver a “benchmark” tools for non-residential buildings called ‘Energy Star Portfolio Manager’– Hand over to utilities for implementation

Hot Dry Air Conditioning Standards– Break up US into three AC climate zones– At no cost, could improve EER up to 20%– Legislation or a waiver is needed though

Super Efficient Gas Hot Water Heater Appliance Initiative-SEGWHAI– Will save >20%

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From Cool Color Roofs to Cool Color Cars

Toyota experiment (surface temperature 10C = 18F cooler) Ford and Fiat are also working on the technology

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Replacement Gas Storage Water Heater– Conventional technology: simple but

antiquated design that wastes energy– 85% of water heater sales are replacement

units, 60% of these are emergency replacements

– Current advanced technologies not appropriate for replacement market

SEGWHAI Goals:– 30% increase in efficiency– 70% decrease in NOx

– Cost effective market price, pay back less than 5 years

– Equivalent to standard water heaters for the customer and installing plumber

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Benefits to California Savings per water heater (over the equipment lifetime):

– 400 - 700 therms– 2.4 – 4.1 metric tons CO2– 13 pounds of NOx

If 50% of existing water heaters in CA are replaced w/ SEGWHAI Tier 1 units: – $154 M in natural gas costs saved each year– 900,000 metric tons of CO2 avoided

each year– 5 M pounds of NOx avoided each year

These emission reductions are valued at more than $30M per year

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Temperature Rise of Various Materials in SunlightDr. Hashem Akbari, LBNL Heat Island Group

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Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight

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Temperature Trends in Downtown Los Angeles

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Potential Savings in LA

Savings for Los Angeles

– Direct, $200M/year

– Indirect, $140M/year

– Smog, $360M/year

– CO2, ~2 MtCO2/year

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.

This talk available on my web page

Just Google

“Art Rosenfeld”