BABY PLEASE DON’T GO!

WHAT ARE YOUR STUDENTS TELLING YOU ABOUT THEIR INTENTION TO

PERSIST?

April 5, 2011NCAIR- Boone, NC

Karen PriceMary HeuserSandra Nicks

BELMONT ABBEY COLLEGE

•Established in 1876•Enrollment of 1,734 Students

(866 Traditional, 868 Adult)•BA & BS Degrees•Freshmen to Sophomore Retention 69%•6-Year Graduation Rate 33%

Persistence Rates (1st to 2nd Year) Among First-time First-year

Students Matriculating between 1991 and 2009

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

0

5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% 95%1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

0

Graduate t < = 4 Yrs.

46 62 54 82 54 65 56 57 42 46 71 89 NaN

Graduate 4 < t < = 5 Yrs.

8 7 12 9 21 10 13 11 3 13 13 NaN

NaN

Gradaute 5 < t < = 6 Yrs.

2 3 3 2 6 2 0 2 2 5 NaN

NaN

NaN

Did not graduate w/in 6 Yrs/Not yet graduated

59 110

89 105

110

96 74 155

99 115

143

189

NaN

Graduation Rates of First-time First-year Degree Seeking Students

Matriculating in Fall, 1995 through 2006

Noel-Levitz Report on Undergraduate Recruitment

Trends

Monetary Returns from Retention

If BAC retains 20 more students this year

Recruitment Savings = $42,860

Revenue from Tuition = $435,640

Revenue from Room & Board =

$206,000

TOTAL = $684,500

BAC Efforts to Increase Retention

Strategic planning Admissions (finding students that are a

“good-fit” for the college) Academic assistance

Gathering information about attrition National Student Clearinghouse Student

Tracker will tell us where students go

BAC First-Year Student Survey will tell us which students plan to go

Attrition Rates (1st to 2nd Year) Among First-time First-year

Students Matriculating Between 1991 and 2009

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60 Academic Dismissal OnlyAll Attrition

Retention/ Persistence Literature

Two “Camps”COGNITIVE VARIABLES NON-COGNITIVE VARIABLES

Quantitative Typically measured

by Standardized Tests (ACT, SAT)

High School Grades

Adjustment Motivation Student Involvement Perceptions

Astin (1993, 2005); Tinto (1993); Sedlacek (2003, 2005)

College Choice Models

Chapman 2 stages (pre-search and search)

Jackson Stage 1- preference Stage 2- exclusion (consider resources) Stage 3- evaluation (final choice)

Hossler & Gallagher Stage 1- Predisposition Stage 2- Search Stage 3- Choice

Blackwell consumer decision process- “purchase behavior”

Funnel to Final Choice

The Nexus between college choice, intention and persistence---

Pre-matriculation attitudes may continue to influence persistence

decisions

EARLY WARNING SIGNS

First Year Student Survey

Annual survey examining satisfaction among first-time first-year students Added questions regarding college choice and

student intentions Administered to traditional students

enrolled in Freshman Symposium Distributed via online survey, with follow

up to non-responders through campus mail and faculty encouragement 62% response (n=203)

Survey Questions: Student Intent

Which best describes your plan for attending BAC: Complete a bachelor’s degree at BAC Attend BAC for one or two years, then

transfer to another college I plan to return to BAC:

Next semester? Next academic year? Through graduation?

Survey Questions: College Choice

Of the colleges to which you applied, BAC was your: First choice Second choice Third or more

Of the colleges to which you were accepted, BAC was your: First choice Second choice Third or more

Survey Questions: Student Success

Since entering BAC, how successful have you felt at: understanding what your professors expect of

you academically developing effective study skills adjusting to the academic demands of college managing your time effectively communicating with faculty developing close friendships with other

students utilizing campus services available to students becoming involved with campus life

Research Questions & Data Analyses

Conducted several Chi Square analyses

1. Are there differences in the frequency of students who return/ non-return by intentions for attendance?

2. Are there differences in the frequency of students who return/ non-return based on college choice status?

3. Are there differences in students perceptions of being successful adjusting to college based on intentions for attendance?

Research Question 1: Are there differences in the frequency of students who return/ non-return by

intentions for attendance? 2x2 Chi Square goodness of fit

Enrollment after one semester (Return versus Non-Return) Plan for attending Belmont Abbey (Stay and Graduate versus Intend to

Transfer)

Χ2 = 8.4, p<.05

There were a greater than expected number of students who indicated that they intended to transfer who actually left BAC after one semester

20% of students who indicated they intend to transfer left after one semester as compared to only 5% of students who indicated they intended to stay

Also, 44% of our students who had indicated BAC was a 3rd or lower choice school indicated that they intend to transfer…..NONE of those students returned after one semester!

Research Question 2:Are there differences in the frequency

of students who return/ non-return based on college choice status?

3x2 Chi Square goodness of fit College Choice Status (1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd or lower choice) Enrollment status after one semester (Return versus Non-Return)

Χ2 = 10.16, p<.05 ---choice of appliedΧ2 = 9.32, p<.05 ---choice of accepted

A greater than expected frequency of students for whom BAC was a 3rd or lower choice of college to attend failed to return after one semester.

30% of non-returning students had indicated BAC was a 3rd or lower choice for attendance

Research Question 3: Are there differences in students perceptions of being successful adjusting to college based on

intentions for attendance? 3x2 Chi Square goodness of fit

Level of Adjustment (Extremely Successful, Somewhat Successful, Unsuccessful) Intentions for Enrollment (Plan to Stay and Graduate versus Plan to Transfer)

How successful have you been at becoming involved with campus life?

Χ2 = 24.78, p<.05

35% of student who indicated intent to transfer reported feeling unsuccessful as compared to only 11% of those who intend to stay.

How successful have you been at developing close friendships?

Χ2 = 27.65, p<.05

15% of students who intend to transfer reported be unsuccessful as compared to only 4% of students who intend to stay

Students who indicate that they intend to transfer are more likely to be report feeling unsuccessful integrating socially on campus

What Next? What do we do with the information?

This year information sent to the Associate Academic

Dean and the Retention Committee Director of Academic Resource Center

contacting students who indicate they intend to leave

What Next? What do we do with the information?

Going forward Survey earlier (before midterm, first semester) Determine reasons why students choose to

attend BAC although not first or second choice (e.g., parents, SATs, academics)

Assist students to become more engaged in the College

Further research on the relationship of college choice and engagement (e.g., combine First-Year Student Survey with NSSE data)