nbnpha 2014 conference saint john keynote - dr. michael haan new brunswick’s demographic and...
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TRANSCRIPT
Demographic Challenges
Michael Haan, PhDCanada Research Chair in Population and Social Policy
University of New [email protected]
Demography, Poverty & Affordable Housing in New Brunswick
Outline
1. Basic demographic trends2. Migration is a primary driver of demographic and economic
change. 3. Trends in Intra-provincial migration4. Implications for housing
What we can/can’t do with Demography
Point #1:Basic Demographic Trends
Population of Canadian Provinces, 1851-2011
160 years of Population Change in Canada
Fertility rates
Fertility Rates in 1951 (National rank)• Prince Edward Island: 5.1 (1)• Nova Scotia: 4.8 (4)• Newfoundland/Labrador: 4.9 (3)• New Brunswick: 5.0 (2)
Birth Rates in 2011 (National rank)• Prince Edward Island: 1.48 (7)• Nova Scotia: 1.40 (9)• Newfoundland/Labrador: 1.34 (10)• New Brunswick: 1.41 (8)
New Brunswick’s Population Pyramid, 1956-2006• http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-
sa/97-551/vignettes/nb06pymd.swf
Canada’s Demographic Haves and Have Nots• As of 2001: % of living population residing in
province of birth (Ontario): • Newfoundland/Labrador: 70.1% (13.82%)• Prince Edward Island: 69.9% (11.69%)• Nova Scotia: 74.0% (12.32%)• New Brunswick: 73.5% (9.76%)• Quebec: 92.0% (5.19%)• Ontario: 90.4%• Manitoba: 72.6% (6.4%)• Saskatchewan: 64.8% (4.23%)• Alberta: 81.1% (2.95%)• British Columbia: 87.9% (3.06%)
New Brunswick, 2011.
Growth Sources #2 + 3: Immigration and Migration
Source: Statistics Canada’s Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada, 2009-2036
Growth trends, 2012 New Brunswick
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-002-x/2012004/t323-eng.htm
Point #2: Migration drives demographic and economic change.
Total Dependency Ratio, 1991
Total Dependency Ratio, 1996
Total Dependency Ratio, 2001
Total Dependency Ratio, 2006
Total Dependency Ratio, 2011
Population < age 15, 1991
Population < age 15, 1996
Population < age 15, 2001
Population < age 15, 2006
Population < age 15, 2011
Proportion age 65+, 1991
Proportion age 65+, 1996
Proportion age 65+, 2001
Proportion age 65+, 2006
Proportion age 65+, 2011
.
.
Population Change, 1991-2011
Rural Decline, 2006-2011
Point 3: Implications for housing and poverty
Employment Growth in NB, 1996-2006
New Brunswick: Fast Facts
1. % Interprovincial employees: 2% of the workforce (~10% in Campbellton-Miramichi).
2. Employment Insurance Recipients: 28% (~44% in Campbellton-Miramichi).
1. 21% of taxfilers have no employment income whatsoever. 3. Low income: 14% (17% in Campbellton-Miramichi)4. Pension Plan: 35% (30% in Edmunston-Woodstock).
Conclusion: Implications for the housing and povertyGet ready for:1. Declines in child poverty.2. A growth in poverty among seniors.3. New forms of poverty
1. Immigrants2. Lone parents (new types of lone parents)3. Mismatched people.
4. Housing shortages alongside growing vacancies.