navigating the tech storm

When entering the Techstorm, you put emerging technologies in a business context, trying to understand what to expect when a technology really takes off. It’s no longer a question of what technology can do for us, but rather what we should allow technology to do. It’s an ongoing revolution, and we have to take control of our own future. We have to question existing perceptions and ethical boundaries, and at the same time be open to new ones.

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The first cars that was introduced were not that impressive or even better than other me-ans of transportation. They were called ”horseless carriages” and were more expensive, noisy and polluting. On top of that, not faster than a horse and carriage. This initial ”explo-ring” phase for a new technology occurs when the technology introduced not necessary is an improvement, rather a new way of doing things. Here the rate of experimentation and innovation is high and the number of application areas are expanding rapidly.



When cars got faster, more reliable and more affordable, the technology also spread throughout society, changing our behavior. People started using cars to go to meetings or visiting relatives in other cities. Trucks were used to transport goods, and in this expansion phase new technologies tend to be more and more accepted.



The peak of a new technology is when it reaches its full potential, becomes commonly ac-cepted and fundamentally changes our lives and society. With the car, this occurred in the 1940s and 50s when the car became a natural part of our lives, at least in the western world. As a natural consequence we could then see the emergence of suburbs, shopping malls and drive-in cinemas, phenomenons impossible if the car wouldn’t have been accep-ted by the general population. Our way of living and working had totally changed because of a new technology.



But why is it so important to understand where technology will take oss? It’s extremely rare that the company making candles invents the light bulb, or the company that invented the Walkman also invent the iPod. First and foremost you want to know when to adapt a new technology, but also as a company when to cut the ties to an existing technology turning obsolete, such as Kodak developing the first digital camera, but failing to take a full leap into the digital domain. Ericsson that too late realized that the cell phone had turned into a consumer product, or Nokia that fully embraced and lead the shift to mobile consumer focus, but was totally left behind when the physical keyboard disappeared and the cell phone turned more software and app centric.



Nanoscience is the next big emerging technology, and miniaturization in different ways will be the foundation for the next technological wave after IT. The definition of nanoscience is everything that takes place on levels under 100 nanometers, that is on virus, DNA and atomic levels.

To put it simply, we can refer to this as BANG technologies as in Bits, Atoms, Neurons and Genes, technologies thriving from the miniaturization trend. Bits as in IT and communica-tion with all opportunities that arise when a technology matures. Atoms as in nanotechno-logy and understanding the unique properties of the atomic level. Neurons as in neurosci-ence and deep understanding of the brain down on cellular level, and last Genes as in ge-netics and bioscience, born when the DNA structure was discovered in 1953.



IBMs Watson computer literally crushed two American Jeopardy champions in 2011. This is not only the result of raw computing power, but also the ability to rapidly understand the question, or answer as in Jeopardy, scan through 200 million pages of information and present an answer, all within a few microseconds.

At the moment the Watson team is working with partners in cancer diagnostics and finan-cial services. Also they have released the Watson API so that external developers can tap into this. We will see a future where advanced computational power will at first be a com-petitive advantage but then quickly a pure necessity to keep up with customer expecta-tions as well as the competition.



Robots have been around in popular culture for a long time, and industrial robots are today a key component in any large scale industrial production.

But the really cool things happening today involves autonomous robotic systems such as robots playing ping pong with humans or robots playing tennis with each other.



Robots for military applications. Quite creepy, and how did the PR guys think here? Let’s put on a gas mask to make it more human and friendly looking?



But don’t worry, Boston Dynamics is owned by Google, the ”don’t be evil” company. Sud-denly it got really creepy. Google that also acquired Deep Mind, one of the most high profi-led and secretive artificial intelligence companies this winter. This is part of their diversifi-cation strategy, but don’t worry, they have formed a committee to handle ethical issues re-lated to technology. Is that supposed to make us feel better. Doesn’t the ethics committee imply that what they’re doing is really scary?



Your natural environment can also be augmented by new technologies. This is Microsoft’s HoloLens, and it will be out early 2016. Imagine to use this technology in your business. To improve the customer experience in a sales process? As a means to add new features to an existing offering? As part of a distributed service and maintenance program?



Already we see robots and artificial intelligence approaching fields we earlier thought were ”human-only”. A driverless car is definitely a kind of robot technology, and it will not be too long before we prefer a driverless taxi. Smart robots making their own decisions will be common in your home and at work in 10 to 15 years. Then we will face lots of ethical and legal challenges. Who’s responsible if a driverless car causes an accident? Will robots love, despise, respect or laugh at humanity 20 years from now?



This man lost both his arms in an accident when he was a teenager. He is now part of a research project that develops prosthetic arms. Unique here is that the arms are mind con-trolled and connected to his brain through the nerves in the patient’s upper arms.

This technology is still in it’s infancy, and each arm cost 500 000 dollars, but it shows great promise, and we will definitely see the price go down in the future.



So how do you spot emerging technologies? How do you get the timing right? How do you assess the business implications? How do you handle uncertainty? One ”simple” approach is a three-step process:

1) Estimate a time frame when you can see initial hype for the technology as well as when you might expect mainstream adoption

2) Making an assessment on the business implications of the new technology. How will this change the competition in your industry? Existing or new competitors? How will the client behavior and expectations change? What kind of internal changes are we facing? Automation, cost cutting?

3) Based on your technology outlook and current trends, based on the effects on your industry and business, the next step is to see what level of uncertainty you're facing.



If you’re not confused, you’re not keeping up



If you’re not curious, you've missed the point



If you’re not optimistic, you haven't been paying attention



navigating the tech storm

Business