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Wells Fargo Securities 2012 Pipeline, MLP and Energy Symposium New York, NY December 4, 2012

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Page 1: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo Securities2012 Pipeline, MLP and Energy Symposium

New York, NYDecember 4, 2012

Page 2: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

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Forward Looking StatementsThe statements made by representatives of Natural Resource Partners L.P. (“NRP”) during the course of this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Although NRP believes that the assumptions underlying these statements are reasonable, investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and necessarily involve risks that may affect NRP’s business prospects and performance, causing actual results to differ from those discussed during the presentation.

Such risks and uncertainties include, by way of example and not of limitation: general business and economic conditions; decreases in demand for coal; changes in our lessees’ operating conditions and costs; changes in the level of costs related to environmental protection and operational safety; unanticipated geologic problems; problems related to force majeure; potential labor relations problems; changes in the legislative or regulatory environment; and lessee production cuts.

These and other applicable risks and uncertainties have been described more fully in NRP’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K or Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. NRP undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events.

Page 3: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

Coal Market Outlook

3

Page 4: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

33.1%30.3%

23.7%

4.9%1.6%

6.4%

Oil Coal Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables

4

Coal – Fastest Growing Fossil Fuel in 2011

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012.

Global Energy Consumption – 2011(million tonnes oil equivalent)

Global Energy Consumption (2011 vs. 2010)

17.7%

5.4%

2.2%0.7%

(4.3%)

1.6%

Renewables Coal Natural Gas Hydro Oil Nuclear

• 2011 - Global primary energy consumption increased 2.5%

– Coal was fastest growing fossil fuel, up 5.4%– Renewables fastest growing fuel, but only

accounts for 1.6% of global energy consumption

• 30.3% - Coal’s share of world energy consumption in 2011 - highest since 1969

• Asia-Pacific is largest energy consumer

– 39.1% of global energy consumption

– 68.6% of global coal consumption

• 12th consecutive year oil’s share of global energy consumption has declined – lowest since 1965

Page 5: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

593

19

519

682

1,160

604

21

530

992

1,883

534

30

499

9100

2,553

North America South &CentralAmerica

Europe &Eurasia

Middle East Africa Asia Pacific

2001 2008 2011

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Global Coal Consumption Continues to Increase

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012.

Global Coal Consumption(million tonnes oil equivalent)

• Three largest global consumers of coal in 2011

– China – 49%

– U.S. – 14%

– India – 8%

• Global coal consumption increased 56% between 2001 and 2011

– China increased ~155%

– India increased ~104%

• Global coal consumption increased 19% between 2006 and 2011

• U.S. coal reserves make up 28% of the world’s total coal reserves

Page 6: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

U.S. Steam Coal Market

U.S. Electric Power Generation by Fuel Type(billion kilowatthours)

U.S. Coal Exports(million short tons)

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• Coal continues to be a low-cost, reliable, and abundant source of fuel

• Over the past 10 years, coal-fired power plants produced ~40-50% of all U.S. electric power generation

• Market share pressured by regulatory environment and gas competition, but expected >40% in long-term

• Increasingly, U.S. producers focused on exports, capitalize on growing global demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Europe Asia North America

South America Africa Australia and Oceania

Total U.S. Coal

Exports (mt): 48.7 39.6 43.0 48.0 49.9 49.6 59.2 81.5 59.1 81.7 107.3

Fuel Type 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012E 2015E 2020E 2025E

Coal 1,739 1,829 1,777 1,689 1,562 1,634 1,741

Natural Gas 837 895 916 969 1,024 994 1,002

Nuclear 799 807 786 813 830 887 917

Renewables (1) 386 393 469 445 506 547 582

Other (2) 31 31 22 22 20 21 23

Total 3,793 3,955 3,970 3,938 3,942 4,083 4,264

Coal as % of Total 45.9% 46.3% 44.8% 42.9% 39.6% 40.0% 40.8%

Source: EIA.(1) Renewables include conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, biogenic municipal waste, other biomass, solar thermal, photovoltaics and wind power.(2) Other includes petroleum, non-biogenic municipal waste, pumped storage, renewables and distributed generation.

Page 7: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

Jan-07 Feb-08 Apr-09 May-10 Jul-11 Aug-12

• Monthly output in March 2012 was the highest ever

• In 2011, global steel production rose 7%, including a 7% increase in the U.S.

• NRP expects production to continue to grow as economies around the globe improve

Metallurgical Coal Market

7Source: World Steel.

Global Steel Production U.S. Met Coal Exports

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010 2011 2012

• Met exports for October YTD 2012 increased 10% over YTD 2011

• Met exports for 2011 increased 216% since 2002

• U.S. continues to evolve from global “swing supplier” to market leader

Source: EIA.

(millions of metric tons) (millions of short tons)

Page 8: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

NRP Overview

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Page 9: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

Business Overview• Own, manage and lease mineral properties in

the U.S.– 2.3 billion tons of proven and probable coal

reserves in three major coal producing regions– 380 million tons of aggregate reserves– Oil and gas

• Lease reserves to experienced mine operators under long-term leases in exchange for royalty payment

– >percentage of gross sales price or fixed price per ton

– periodic minimum payments

• Own and lease infrastructure assets including transportation, handling and processing facilities and receive throughput fees

• Expect 2012 revenue guidance in range of $340 million - $365 million

• Publicly traded on NYSE (“NRP”) with market cap of $2.0 billion(1)

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NRP Revenues (2011)

Revenues from NRP’s Assets (2011)

(1) Market data as of November 28, 2012. Unit price of $18.88

($ in millions)

Page 10: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

• Capital Expenditures

• Labor

• Employee Benefits

• Property Taxes

• Transportation / Processing

• Reclamation Exposure

• Regulatory/Permitting

• Competition

• Weather

• Economy

No Direct Operating Costs or Risks• Lack of ordinary operating costs and limited direct exposure to environmental,

permitting and labor risks drive industry-leading margins

Operating Cost Operating Risks

87.3%

56.7%

33.3% 31.1%23.7% 20.9%

12.9% 9.9% 9.0% 7.3% 4.6%

NRP BoardwalkPipeline

WilliamsPartners

AllianceResourcePartners

EnergyTransferPartners

PVR Partners EnbridgeEnergy

BuckeyePartners

EnterpriseProductsPartners

NuStar Energy Plains AllAmericanPipeline

10Source: Company filings and FactSet.

MLP EBITDDA Margins (2011)

Page 11: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

New Revenue Streams Through Disciplined Acquisition Strategy

Steam - APP$86

Steam - NPRB

$8Steam -

ILB$4

Other$17

Met Coal$44

28%

54%

3%5%

10%

2005 Revenues ($ mm) 2011 Revenues ($ mm)

Other$49

Steam - APP$104

Steam - NPRB

$8

Steam - ILB $41

Infra-structure

$30

Met Coal $125

Oil & Gas $14

Aggregates $7 33%

28%

2%

2%

11%

8%

17%

4%

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Total Revenue = $377.7 millionTotal Revenue = $159.1 million

• 26% of 2011 revenues from assets other than coal royalty revenues, a significant increase from only 10% in 2005• Added new asset types to portfolio for complementary sources of revenue

Page 12: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

Overview of NRP’s Coal Business• Diversified platform across the coal industry

• 5th largest owner of coal reserves in the U.S. – 2.3 billion tons

• Strategically located in Appalachia, Illinois Basin, Western U.S.

• Increased production expected from development of ILB properties

• LTM coal production of 49.5 mt and coal royalty revenues of $260.7 million

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Southern Appalachia

Reserves 123 mt

Production 2.8 mt

% Metallurgical 35%

% Underground 79%

Key Lessees Cliffs Natural Resources

Northern Appalachia

Reserves 494 mt

Production 7.6 mt

% Metallurgical 2%

% Underground 99%

Key Lessees Alliance Resource Partners, Arch Coal, MetInvest

Illinois Basin

Reserves 276 mt

Production 10.2 mt

% Metallurgical 0%

% Underground 95%

Key Lessees The Cline Group, Knight Hawk Coal

Central Appalachia

Reserves 1,281 mt

Production 26.4 mt

% Metallurgical 31%

% Underground 82%

Key Lessees Alpha Natural Resources, Arch Coal, Mechel, Patriot

Northern Powder River Basin

Reserves 102 mt

Production 2.1 mt

% Metallurgical 0%

% Underground 0%

Key Lessees Westmoreland Coal

Note: LTM as of September 30, 2012.

States in which NRP generates coal royalty revenues/overrides

Page 13: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

NRP’s Illinois Basin Growth Prospects• 2005 increased exposure to Illinois Basin • Production increased

– 5% to 22% of total today – expected to continue to grow

• Invested ~$586 million since 2005 on coal reserve royalty and infrastructure properties

• Projects recent completion– Hillsboro (Deer Run) –should add 7-9 million tons on an annual basis– Sugar Camp infrastructure and ORRI – add ~$8 million in cash flows in 2012

• Agreement with Cline Group - opportunities on up to 3 billion tons of coal reserves or infrastructure

• Illinois Basin coal well situated – Additional scrubbers to handle Ill Basin coal– Transportation and BTU advantage over PRB coals– Thicker coal seams than Appalachia means very low operating costs compared to CAPP– Export capability through the mouth of the Mississippi River

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Page 14: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

NRP – Significant Metallurgical Exposure• 20-25% of all the metallurgical coal

produced in the U.S. is produced from NRP properties

– In 2006, it was as high as 30%

• Historically metallurgical coal has made up a significant portion of NRP’s coal royalty revenue

– 22% to 37% of production

– 29% to 47% of coal royalty revenues

– 3Q 2012 YTD - 33% of production and 44% of coal royalty revenues

• 19 lessees currently produce metallurgical coal from NRP properties

• Increases in metallurgical demand or prices can have a profound impact on NRP

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U.S. Coal Production (5-Year Average)

NRP’s % of U.S. Met Production (5-Year Average)

Page 15: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

Growing Infrastructure Business

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• Own preparation plants, rail load-outs and beltline structures for both coal and aggregates

• Currently own 11 coal assets and 1 aggregate plant

• Fees received based on • % of the gross selling price or• Fixed fee per ton of throughput

• Recent Ill. Basin acquisition to provide significant increase for 2012 and beyond

• Working to expand business

Page 16: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

Overview of NRP’s Aggregates Business• 380 million tons of aggregates in 9 states for NRP (1)

• BRP has production in 5 states

• Currently less than 2% of revenues ($6.7 mm in 2011 on 5.9 mm tons production), but growing

• Invested ~ $138 million since 2006 to acquire assets (1)

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DuPont (Jan 2007)Sand and Gravel

Wise County (Jul 2009)Limestone

White County (Mar 2010)Limestone

Putnam County (Apr 2010)Limestone

Northern California (Apr 2010)Silica

Rockmart (Jun 2010)Slate

Livingston County (Feb 2011)Limestone

McMinn County (Mar 2011)Limestone

Tyler, TX (Jun 2011)Frac Sand

Hi-Crush ORRI (Nov 2012)Frac Sand

BRP (Jun 2010)

BRP (Jun 2010)

BRP (Jun 2010)

States in which NRP generates aggregate revenues/overridesDate of acquisition in parenthesis

(1) Does not include BRP

Page 17: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

• Own, manage and lease oil and gas mineral properties in the U.S.

– Over 395,000 net leased oil, gas and CBM acres

– More than 1,000 producing wells

– Additional un-leased mineral interests throughout United States

• Interest types include fee mineral ownership, overriding royalty ownership

– Actively work with operators to provide best scenario for successful development

• Since Dec 2011, acquired 19,200 net mineral acres in the Mississippian Lime oil play in Oklahoma for ~$64 million

– Currently leased to several active operators

– Continuing development through horizontal drilling

• Continuing to lease BRP oil and gas acreage

• Actively seeking to grow oil and gas portfolio through acquisitions– Minerals, royalties, ORRI, Net Profits Interest acquisitions

– Provide development capital to operators in exchange for non-cost bearing interest

• Oil and gas royalties currently only 4% of revenues, but growing as further development occurs on NRP properties

oil and gas revenues

Overview of NRP’s Oil and Gas Business

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Oil and Gas Revenues from NRP’s Assets

States in which NRP generates

Page 18: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

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Platform for Additional Growth -BRP Mineral Venture - ~ 9 mm acres•Formed venture with International Paper June 2010 -BRP•Own and manage ~9.1 million acres of mineral rights previously held by IP•NRP paid $42.5 million and has annual cumulative preferred distribution of $4.25 MM and 51% of any excess income•Royalty based model similar to NRP other assets•NRP has received distributions with regard to:

•2012 (Jan – Sept) - $4.5 million•2011 - $6.9 million•2010 - $2.5 million (7 months)

Current Income Development

Oil and gas royalties √ √

Coal royalties √ √

Aggregate royalties √ √

Cell tower royalties √

Coal bed methane √

Geothermal √

Water rights √

Precious metals √

Industrial minerals √

~75% of properties are located in the Gulf Coast region with next largest region the Pacific Northwest

Page 19: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

Consistent Growth and Diversification of Revenues

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2012E reflects the midpoint of the guidance range updated in August 2012.

Page 20: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

Paid to Wait for Market Turnaround

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• Current quarterly distribution - $0.55 per unit• Large cash balance to help protect distribution in weak markets

Page 21: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

Unique Tax Attributes for Individuals• Portion of current income deferred due to depletion, depreciation

• Current income predominantly taxed at Section 1231 – capital gains rates

• At sale of units - very little recapture of depreciation and depletion

• If units are held for more than one year, majority of all income generated by the partnership is taxed at capital gains rates

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Page 22: Natural Resource Partners Wells Fargo

Poised for Growth in 2013 and beyond• Potential for higher coal production

– NRP’s lessees produced 49.2 million tons in 2011– NRP forecasts 2012 coal production of 48 million tons to 54 million tons

• Some lessees moving back onto NRP property from other lessees• Increasing ILB tonnage in 2012 and 2013 based on earlier acquisitions

• Growth in infrastructure and transportation– Increasing throughput from rising coal tonnage in ILB– New ILB infrastructure assets – Sugar Camp– New infrastructure assets in aggregates

• Growth in oil and gas royalties due to recent acquisitions– Hired team in 2011 to evaluate acquisitions and expanding development on existing leases– Currently only 4% of revenues, but growing as further development occurs on NRP properties

• Increased aggregates platform– Since 2006 acquired 10 properties for ~$138 million plus 1 infrastructure asset for $6 million– Combination of producing and greenfield projects– Providing growth in 2012 and beyond

• Mineral venture with International Paper (BRP LLC)– Actively developing diverse portfolio of mineral rights in 31 states

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